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Environmental Scanning:
what it is and how to do it
 Environmental Scanning:
what it is and how to do it

Maree Conway
Thinking Futures
….using futures approaches to
integrate strategic thinking into
strategy development and planning
• What ES is and why do it

• ES and strategy

• Getting started with ES

• Back to work
• What’s your definition of environmental
scanning?
• ES is the art of systematically exploring
and interpreting the external environment,
• to better understand the nature of trends
and deep drivers of change
• and their likely future impact on your
organisation.
• Environmental Scanning (ES) is
the foundation for high quality
strategic thinking…
• Environmental Scanning (ES) is
the foundation for high quality
strategic thinking…

• …that informs the development of

futures ready strategy for an
organisation.
• Futures ready strategy is flexible
strategy that readies an
organisation to respond to the
challenges of the future.
 Quick Survey

How many of you have formal scanning

systems operational in your organisations?
 Why a Scanning System?
• To strengthen the quality of the thinking
that goes into your strategy development
• To let you understand what’s coming and
what’s changing and what it means for you
• To give you enough time to prepare and
be proactive
• To give you a competitive edge
• To move you beyond busy - out of crisis
management mode
 Environmental Scanning
Seeking Information
What can we see today?

Strategic Thinking
What might happen in the future?
Generating Options

Strategic Decision Making

Where will go in the future?
Making Decisions

Strategic Planning
What will we do today?
Taking Action
• Current strategy processes tend to
focus on the plan as the major
outcome, rather than a shared
understanding of your organisation’s
preferred future to inform action today.
 Making VU 2016:
Current until A Statement of
2016 Purpose
Internal & External Planning
Strategic vision
Inputs
and objectives
Ongoing environmental
scanning
•Educational & societal trends
•Government policy drivers
University •Legislation
Priorities
•University cross-sectoral
Reviewed each 2008-2010
Outcomes & strategies
year in first half
Strategies to •Other University Plans (eg
of year
implement OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc)

Unit Strategic Plans University Budget Process

Reviewed and
updated in
August/September;
finalised following
QIRs in November
2008-2010
Faculties, Schools
& Service areas
Implementation of University
Priority strategies
Iterative process to align
budgets and plans
Budget sign-off at end
September
Quarterly Budget Reviews

Department
Plans

Improvement action
identified/changes to
plans identified SPDP:
individual
Staff Plans

QIR Inputs
Organisational Unit QIR
Quality Improvement Reviews
Portfolios
Held in (QIRs)
Approval of operational plans Faculty Review Outcomes
November each
Review of current year’s Annual Course Reporting
year
performance Course Review
Subject Evaluation Outcomes
AQTF outcomes
AUQA Follow up
Think tomorrow
is going to be
more of today
Can’t cope
with the
unexpected
Usually don’t explore the
long term future
Prefer quantitative
over qualitative
information
Don’t
challenge
assumptions
Downplay or dismiss staff
beliefs, hopes and fears about the
future
• While the need for
planning has never
been greater, the
relevance of most
of today’s planning
systems and tools
is increasingly
marginal
(Fuller, 2003).
• It may well be that the
typical strategic
planning exercise now
conducted on a
regular and formal
basis and infused with
quantitative data
misses the essence of
the concept of strategy
and what is involved in
thinking strategically
(Sidorowicz, 2000).
• A major assumption of
the strategic planning
literature … is that all of
these terms
[strategy, planning]
necessarily go
together. [That is]
Strategy formation is a
planning
process, designed or
supported by
planners, to plan in
order to produce plans”
(Mintzberg, 1994).
• Current strategy processes live in the
pragmatic futures realm.

• Working within the existing

paradigm, making it better, but not
challenging it.

• We call it ‘strategic planning’.

• Beyond strategic planning – to strategy
development and implementation.

• Moving into the progressive futures

realm, where we challenge the current
paradigm and re-interpret how we do
business to meet the challenges of the
future.
Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches
requires a strong focus on building a high quality
strategic thinking capacity in your organisation.
We can't solve
problems by
using the same
kind of thinking
we used when
we created
them.
...because what works today
will probably not work for those
who follow you in the future...
• If you don’t spend the time to improve the
quality of the thinking that goes into your
strategic decisions, then you will get
superficial, limited and ultimately useless
strategy.
So how do we
get started with
environmental
scanning?
 BIG
DEEP
LONG
BIG
Take a big picture, systems perspective…our micro-
decisions coalesce to create global futures
DEEP
Our
assumptions
encase us in
the past.
We all have
blind spots
that cause
us to miss
important
information.
LONG
UNCERTAINTY

High
Usual Planning Timeframe
(3-5 years)

The linear future is the one we

believe to be true, usually based on
untested assumptions
Trend

Linear Future
Low

Today TIME Future

UNCERTAINTY

High
Usual Planning Timeframe
(3-5 years)

Possible Futures

Trend

Linear Future
Low

Today TIME Future

UNCERTAINTY

High
Usual Planning Timeframe
(3-5 years)

Possible Futures

Trend

Linear Future
Low

Today TIME Future

The Scanning Process
The External Environment

Social Environment
Driving
Forces
Industry
Environment Factors / Trends
Issues / Forces
Suppliers Social
Organisation Technological
Economic
Customers Ecological
Clients Political
…
Members of Competitors
Wider Society
Driving
Forces

Adapted from K. van der Heijden

 Industry
Educational
Gaming
Learning
Students
Online
Suppliers
Organisation
Stakeholders
Sustainability
Engagement

Vocational Funding
Imperative
 Globalisation
Global Technology

Demographics &
generational change Industry
Educational
Gaming
Learning Lifestyle
Online

Environment Organisation

Sustainability Engagement
Values

Vocational Funding
Imperative
Economy
Politics
 Wild Globalisation
card Technology
Global

Wild
Demographics & card
generational change Wild
Industry card
Educational
Gaming
Learning Lifestyle
Online

Environment Organisation

Sustainability Engagement
Values

Vocational Funding Wild

Imperative card
Economy
Politics
 Things
Happening

Trend
(grouping of events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
When you start scanning, you will
find lots of things happening
Things
Happening

Trend
(grouping of events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
 Gradually, you
will be able to
Things group similar
Happening ‘hits’ into
broader
categories –
trends.
Trend
(grouping of events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
But it might still
feel like this – a
bit of a maze to
try and work
your way
through…
What we are really
interested in
exploring is what Things
Happening
is driving these
trends.

Trend
(grouping of events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
And this is
where the
connections
between the
trends will
surface and it
will start to
make sense.
Who Scans?
Scanning is not a solitary activity…
Where to Look?
Global,
multiple
dispersed
cases, trends
and
megatrends
Late Majority
Number of Laggards
cases; Mainstream
degree of
public
awareness Late Adopters
Trends

Emerging Issues
Few cases,
local focus Early adopters
Innovators
Today
Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers
Global,
multiple
dispersed Government
cases, trends Institutions
and Newspapers,
megatrends magazines, websites,
journals, blogs Late Majority
Number of Laggards
Scientists, artists,
cases; Mainstream
degree of radicals, mystics
public
awareness Late Adopters
Trends

Emerging Issues
Few cases,
local focus Early adopters
Innovators
Today
Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers
 Most scanning takes place here
Global,
multiple
dispersed Government
cases, trends Institutions
and Newspapers,
megatrends magazines, websites,
journals, blogs Late Majority
Number of Laggards
Scientists, artists,
cases; Mainstream
degree of radicals, mystics
public
awareness Late Adopters
Trends

Emerging Issues
Few cases,
local focus Early adopters
Innovators
Today
Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers
 But we need to look on the fringe as
Global, well
multiple
dispersed Government
cases, trends Institutions
and Newspapers,
megatrends magazines, websites,
journals,blogs Late Majority
Number of Laggards
Scientists, artists,
cases; Mainstream
degree of radicals, mystics
public
awareness Late Adopters
Trends

Emerging Issues
Few cases,
local focus Early adopters
Innovators
Today
Time
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers
 Where to look…
• Newspapers, twitter, websites, blogs, wikis
, podcasts, videos, news
sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book
reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, in
terviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend
observers, advertisers, philosophers
sociologists, management
gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, u
niversities.
Shaping Tomorrow
• If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t
yet exist, don’t talk to normal people
because they’re just consuming what is
available today – find the weirdos and see
what they are doing, what they’re making
on their own, and say gee – is there
something I can mainstream from this?
Tom Kelly
Founder, Ideo
 Trends

Whatever takes you away The weird and

from conventional thinking… unimaginable

Emerging Issues
 Some Scanning Sites
• Shaping Tomorrow
• Trendwatching
• Brain Reserve
• Now and Next
• The Tomorrow Project
• Strategic Business Insights
• Arlington Institute
 Looking for…

• What is happening today with your issue?

• What are other people saying about its

evolution over time? How credible are
they?
• Don’t dismiss the outliers…
 Looking for…
• New, first
• Idea
• Change
• Surprise
• Opportunity
• Threat
• Diversity of perspectives
 Looking for…
• Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging
issue that is objectively new even to
experts, confirms or is confirmed by
additional scan hits, and that has been
identified in time for social
dialogue, impact assessment, and policy
formation.

Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004

As you scan…

• What are the major driving forces?

• What big surprises are on the horizon?
• What are possible discontinuities
(wildcards)?
• What are the sources of inspiration and
hope?

Richard Slaughter, Foresight International

As you scan…

• If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop.

• First, ask why do I think it’s rubbish?
• Second, take another look.
• Third, ask what would enable you to
accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is
happening.
Classifying Hits
Social

Technological
Environmental

Economic

STEEP or add in Values

to make it VERY STEEP (VSTEEP)*

*Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good Political

When is a hit useful?
• Does the hit help you understand your
issue?

• Does the hit identify a new way of seeing

the issue?

• Does the hit help you to explore trends

and their potential impacts?

Shaping Tomorrow
• Does the hit aim to identify and assess
possible future threats and
opportunities, including radical
alternatives?

• Does the hit challenge existing

assumptions underpinning current polices
and practice?

Shaping Tomorrow
• Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition
– your expertise, knowledge and insight is
the best gauge of usefulness.

• But, remember your blind spots!

Recording and Sharing Hits
 What to Record
• Title
• Summary
• Source and date published
• Initial assessment of implications
• Tag/VSTEEP category
• For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by
Strategic Business Insights)

• 2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information

Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of
Packet Video (a developer of video streaming
technology) from consumer to security applications. The
company’s technology could provide live feeds from the
cockpits of hijacked planes.
http://www.shapingtomorrow.com
Reporting Your Findings
• A snapshot report of the external
environment.
• A background paper for the strategic
planning cycle.
• Regular trend reports on single trends.
• More detailed quarterly reports on
implications of trends and drivers.
• Quick snippets about what you are
finding.
• Rating the hits – staff involvement.
• In all cases, add in trigger questions to
prompt discussion/conversation.
• What impact might it have on your
industry today and in the future?

• What might be the implications for

your organisation?

• How might you respond?

• How, and in what ways, could this
information be relevant to my
organisation?
 Environmental Scanning
Seeking Information
What can we see today?

Strategic Thinking
What might happen in the future?
Generating Options

Strategic Decision Making

Where will go in the future?
Making Decisions

Strategic Planning
What will we do today?
Taking Action
Reporting Template
Examples
Back to Work
• Never underestimate your
influence.

• Make it part of your

deliverables.

• Look for ‘friendlies’.

• Start local.
Have good organisational
diagnostics: can smell the
cheese, but will jump ship.

Get it, and can use the

system – very rare.

Don’t bother –
they are waiting
for you to fail! They will follow
you blindly – just
like lemmings!

Andy Hines, An Audit for Organizational Futurists: 10 Questions Every

Organizational Futurist Should be Able to Answer, 2003
Long term

Uncertain

Divergent

Incomplete

Beyond linear

Disruption
Challenges: Info Overload
 Challenges:
Stretching Your Thinking
Challenges: Finding the Time
Individual Organisational
Scanning Scanning

Unconscious Conscious

Implicit Explicit

Solitary Collective
• The aim of scanning work is to
provide robust information that
strengthens your understanding of
your organisation’s long term
context…

• …to enable you to make wise

strategic decisions today.
We do scanning to avoid having this
perspective on the future…
Enjoy your
scanning!
• Download Building Strategic Futures
Guides:
– Getting Started with Futures
– Environmental Scanning

http://thinkingfutures.net/resources/building-
strategic-futures-guides/
 Contact Details

Maree Conway
http://www.thinkingfutures.net
maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net

Tel: + 61 3 9016 9506

Mobile: + 61 425 770 181
Skype: mkconway1

Shaping Tomorrow
http://www.shapingtomorrow.com

Foresight Network
http://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com
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