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Asian Paints: Date Close
Asian Paints: Date Close
ASIAN
PAINTS
31-05-2019 1406.7
30-05-2019 1373.35
29-05-2019 1359.35
28-05-2019 1366.3
27-05-2019 1365.7
24-05-2019 1385.55
23-05-2019 1369.45
22-05-2019 1366.75
21-05-2019 1358.55
20-05-2019 1372.75
17-05-2019 1318.15
16-05-2019 1307
15-05-2019 1307.15
14-05-2019 1318.85
13-05-2019 1332.9
10/5/2019 1340.95
9/5/2019 1355.8
8/5/2019 1387.6
7/5/2019 1387.65
6/5/2019 1414.9
3/5/2019 1437.75
2/5/2019 1437.85
30-04-2019 1463
TOTAL
E(X)E(Y)
N(E)xy
nEy2
(EY)2
nEy2 minus(EY)2
Square root of nEy2 minus(
SYSTEMATIC RISK
CORRELATION APP. 5/31/2019
ASIAN 5/30/2019
PAINTS 5/29/2019
5/28/2019
5/27/2019
5/24/2019
5/23/2019
5/22/2019
5/21/2019
5/20/2019
5/17/2019
5/16/2019
5/15/2019
5/14/2019
5/13/2019
5/10/2019
5/9/2019
5/8/2019
5/7/2019
5/6/2019
5/3/2019
5/2/2019
4/30/2019
TOTAL
27991872498.5
28002906429.987
11033931.4869995
788409201961.032
787,962,911,092.563
446,290,868.470
21125.5974701215
995267059.435
994,393,156.0
873,903.4
934.828024291069
19748800.5449621
rim Value
0.558714007054685
Square root of nEx2 minus(EX)2 with root of nEy2 minus(EY)2
CLOSING Close(Y) or individual stock
PRICE
(X) or market
index
39,714.20 1406.7
39,831.97 1373.35
39,502.05 1359.35
39,749.73 1366.3
39,683.29 1365.7
39,434.72 1385.55
38,811.39 1369.45
39,110.21 1366.75
38,969.80 1358.55
39,352.67 1372.75
37,930.77 1318.15
37,393.48 1307
37,114.88 1307.15
37,318.53 1318.85
37,090.82 1332.9
37,462.99 1340.95
37,558.91 1355.8
37,789.13 1387.6
38,276.63 1387.65
38,600.34 1414.9
38,963.26 1437.75
38,981.43 1437.85
39,031.55 1463
887,672.75 31534
Variance of I or y nEy2
(EY)2
n2
Variance of m or x nEx2
(EX)2
n2
nEx2 minus (EX)2
Beta 0.024723632649793
1,577,217,681.64 1978804.89
1,586,585,834.08 1886090.2225
1,560,411,954.20 1847832.4225
1,580,041,035.07 1866775.69
1,574,763,505.22 1865136.49
1,555,097,141.48 1919748.8025
1,506,323,993.73 1875393.3025
1,529,608,526.24 1868005.5625
1,518,645,312.04 1845658.1025
1,548,632,636.13 1884442.5625
1,438,743,312.79 1737519.4225
1,398,272,346.51 1708249
1,377,514,317.41 1708641.1225
1,392,672,681.36 1739365.3225
1,375,728,928.27 1776622.41
1,403,475,619.74 1798146.9025
1,410,671,720.39 1838193.64
1,428,018,346.16 1925433.76
1,465,100,404.16 1925572.5225
1,489,986,248.12 2001942.01
1,518,135,629.83 2067125.0625
1,519,551,884.84 2067412.6225
1,523,461,895.40 2140369
34,278,660,954.83 43272480.845
995267059.435
994393156
529
873903.434999943
1651.99137051029 Variance of I or y
40.6446967083073
Standard deviation of i or y
788409201961.032
787,962,911,092.56
529
446,290,868.47
843650.034914186 Variance of m or x
it is evidenced that Beta of Berger stock is less than Beta of BSE market index
X*Y
55865965.14
54703235.9995
53697111.6675
54310056.099
54195469.153
54638776.296
53150258.0355
53453879.5175
52942421.79
54021377.7425
49998444.4755
48873278.36
48514715.392
49217543.2905
49438353.978
50235996.4405
50922370.178
52436196.788
53114565.6195
54615621.066
56019427.065
56049449.1255
57103157.65
1217517670.869
on of m or x
an Beta of BSE market index i.e. 0.0248< 1.00. Asian Paints stock has less syste
k has less systematic risk.
BERGER Date Close Estimated Return Probability
PAINTS Xi
31-05-2019 330.55 190.36 0.1
30-05-2019 300.4 200.20 0.1
29-05-2019 300.25 203.84 0.1
28-05-2019 302.95 213.00 0.2
27-05-2019 310.55 210.68 0.1
24-05-2019 310.65 206.28 0.1
23-05-2019 307.35 211.32 0.2
22-05-2019 310.35 212.13 0.1
21-05-2019 311.7 213.09 0.1
20-05-2019 312.75 195.55 0.2
17-05-2019 299.85 195.03 0.1
16-05-2019 296.25 197.65 0.2
15-05-2019 297.3 197.17 0.2
14-05-2019 297.2 199.94 0.1
13-05-2019 299.25 201.91 0.1
10/5/2019 301.25 202.25 0.1
9/5/2019 302 204.26 0.1
8/5/2019 303.7 204.90 0.2
7/5/2019 304.6 213.65 0.1
6/5/2019 311.45 211.58 0.3
3/5/2019 311.55 216.49 0.2
2/5/2019 315.3 219.11 0.2
30-04-2019 318.2
TOTAL
Exp. ROR 659.87 Less from Exp. ROR
Stan. Dev 811.65271168 (in percent) 5355.87265431
Actual ROR -4696.00
XiP(Xi) (Xi – X ) (Xi – X )2 (Xi – X )2P(Xi)
19.04 -469.51 220436.5 22043.6
20.02 -459.67 211296.5 21129.6
20.38 -456.03 207962.2 20796.2
42.60 -446.87 199695.2 39939.0
21.07 -449.19 201769.7 20177.0
20.63 -453.59 205747.2 20574.7
42.26 -448.55 201200.1 40240.0
21.21 -447.74 200468.3 20046.8
21.31 -446.78 199616.2 19961.6
39.11 -464.32 215595.1 43119.0
19.50 -464.84 216071.8 21607.2
39.53 -462.22 213644.4 42728.9
39.43 -462.70 214094.7 42818.9
19.99 -459.93 211540.2 21154.0
20.19 -457.96 209723.8 20972.4
20.22 -457.62 209417.6 20941.8
20.43 -455.61 207580.7 20758.1
40.98 -454.97 207001.8 41400.4
21.36 -446.22 199112.8 19911.3
63.47 -448.29 200962.0 60288.6
43.30 -443.38 196586.4 39317.3
43.82 -440.76 194268.2 38853.6
659.87 658780.1
m Exp. ROR
SENSEX RETURNS DATE
SYSTEMATIC RISK
CORRELATION APP. 5/31/2019
5/30/2019
5/29/2019
5/28/2019
BERGER 5/27/2019
PAINTS 5/24/2019
5/23/2019
5/22/2019
5/21/2019
5/20/2019
5/17/2019
5/16/2019
5/15/2019
5/14/2019
5/13/2019
5/10/2019
5/9/2019
5/8/2019
5/7/2019
5/6/2019
5/3/2019
5/2/2019
4/30/2019
TOTAL
NO. OF OBSERVATIONS
N IS 23
E(X)E(Y)
N(E)xy
nEy2
(EY)2
nEy2 minus(EY)2
Square root of nEy2 minus(EY)2
6262886320.35
Variance of I or y
6265263089.345
2376768.99499893
788409201961.032
787,962,911,092.563
446,290,868.470
21125.5974701215
49812654.225 Variance of m or x
49,778,669.16
33,985.07
184.350386492692
3894512.05850595
Variance of m or x
rim Value
0.610286721235813
nus(EX)2 with root of nEy2 minus(EY)2
Beta
Interpretation: The above calculations de
Y SQUARE X*Y
109263.3025 13127528.81
90240.16 11965523.788
90150.0625 11860490.5125
91778.7025 12042180.7035
96441.3025 12323645.7095
96503.4225 12250395.768
94464.0225 11928680.7165
96317.1225 12137853.6735
97156.89 12146886.66
97812.5625 12307547.5425
89910.0225 11373541.3845
87764.0625 11077818.45
88387.29 11034253.824
88327.84 11091067.116
89550.5625 11099427.885
90751.5625 11285725.7375
91204 11342790.82
92233.69 11476558.781
92781.16 11659061.498
97001.1025 12022075.893
97063.4025 12139003.653
99414.09 12290844.879
101251.24 12419839.21
2,165,767.58 272,402,743.02
nEy2 49812654.225
(EY)2 49,778,669.16
n2 529
nEx2 788409201961.032
(EX)2 787,962,911,092.563
n2 529
0.005325605
bove calculations depicts that Beta of Berger stock is less than Beta of BSE market index i.e. 0.00533<
index i.e. 0.00533< 1.00. Therefore, Berger Paint stock has less systematic risk.
KANSAI Estimated Retur Probability
NEROLAC Date Close Xi
31-05-2019 460.7 344 0.1
30-05-2019 444 346 0.1
29-05-2019 446 348.65 0.1
28-05-2019 448.65 340.6 0.2
27-05-2019 440.6 337.6 0.1
24-05-2019 437.6 321.45 0.1
23-05-2019 421.45 316.1 0.1
22-05-2019 416.1 305.05 0.1
21-05-2019 405.05 309.95 0.2
20-05-2019 409.95 310.5 0.2
17-05-2019 410.5 300.6 0.1
16-05-2019 400.6 299.2 0.2
15-05-2019 399.2 307.75 0.2
14-05-2019 407.75 306.45 0.1
13-05-2019 406.45 315.5 0.1
10/5/2019 415.5 330.2 0.1
9/5/2019 430.2 333.65 0.1
8/5/2019 433.65 330.05 0.2
7/5/2019 430.05 325.4 0.1
6/5/2019 425.4 326.9 0.1
3/5/2019 426.9 317.8 0.1
2/5/2019 417.8 340.6 0.2
30-04-2019 440.6
TOTAL
935.265 1089560.5
SYSTEMATIC RISK
CORRELATION AP 5/31/2019
5/30/2019
5/29/2019
5/28/2019
KANSAI 5/27/2019
NEROLAC 5/24/2019
5/23/2019
5/22/2019
5/21/2019
5/20/2019
5/17/2019
5/16/2019
5/15/2019
5/14/2019
5/13/2019
5/10/2019
5/9/2019
5/8/2019
5/7/2019
5/6/2019
5/3/2019
5/2/2019
4/30/2019
TOTAL
NO. OF OBSERVATIONS
N IS 23
(EX)2
E(X)E(Y)
N(E)xy
nEy2
(EY)2
nEy2 minus(EY)2
Square root of n
Multiplying Squa
95,544,760.1
8676734829.425
8682294249.958
5559420.53299904
788409201961.032
787,962,911,092.563
446290868.469605
21125.5974701215 Variance of I or y
95691586.25
95,544,760.09
146,826.16
383.179018214739
Variance of I or y
8094885.69780094
rim Value
0.686781844802245
ying Square Square root of nEx2 minus(EX)2 with root of nEy2 minus(EY)Variance of m or x
resents that there is 68.67% correlation between SENSEX returns & Nerolac stock returns
Variance of m or x
Beta
383.179018214739
146826.160000011
5559420.53299904
nEy2 95691586.25
(EY)2 95,544,760.09
n2 529
nEx2 788409201961.032
(EX)2 787,962,911,092.563
n2 529
0.012456944396067
Above calculations ihas the evidence that Beta of Kansai Nerolac stock is less than Beta of BSE mar
is less than Beta of BSE market index i.e. 0.01246< 1.00. Kansai Nerolac Paints stock has less systema
tock has less systematic risk.
HDFC Bank(Y)
EY
TOTAL
Month TISCO(Y) LN
PROBA
Apr-19 243.8 0.2
May 336.85 0.32328951036 0.1
June 290.75 -0.14717393601 0.1
July 421.55 0.37147460297 0.1
August 489.7 0.14985456434 0.1
September 591.15 0.1882768336 0.2
October 567.25 -0.04126966865 0.1
November 663.15 0.15620108528 0.1
December 791.2 0.17654957137 0.2
Jan-20 694.35 -0.13057462416 0.1
February 711.2 0.02397752805 0.1
March 757.7 0.1
TOTAL 6558.65
EY
CLOSING PRICE
(X) or market
index
Month ICICI(Y)
Apr-19 234.75
May 230.8
June 267.5
July 291.5
August 259.95
September 262.6
October 283.5
November 285.2
December 264.8
Jan-20 242.3
February 236.2
March 239.55
TOTAL 3098.65
EY
Probability
LOG CLOSE
0.1 XiP(Xi) (Xi – X ) (Xi – X )2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
X2
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
(Xi – X )
XiP(Xi) (Xi – X ) (Xi – X ) 2 2
P(Xi)
EX2
Close(Y) or
individual stock
EX2
Nifty
11748.15
11922.8
11788.85
11118
11023.25
11474.45
11877.45
12056.05
12168.45
12169.85 600,000
11201.75 300,000
8597.75 1,00,00,000
137146.8 35,00,000
40,00,000
500,000
1,400,000
HDFC
X2 Y2
(Xi – X ) P(Xi)
2
Bank
Y2
59438.44
113467.9225
84535.5625
177704.4025
239806.09
349458.3225
321772.5625
439767.9225
625997.44
482121.9225
505805.44
574109.29
3973985.3175
EY2
EY2
RETURNS FROM
NIFTY
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Table of Contents Page no.
Asian Paints.
A) Returns Analysis
A) Correlation Analysis.
Interpretation
Berger Paints.
A) Returns Analysis
A) Correlation Analysis.
Interpretation
Kansai Nerolac.
A) Returns Analysis
A) Correlation Analysis.
Interpretation
Preface
Economic Analysis.
Industry Analysis.
Company Analysis.
Beta Interpretation.
Particulars. Page no.
Asian Paints.
A) Returns Analysis 3
A) Correlation Analysis. 4
Interpretation 5
Berger Paints.
A) Returns Analysis 6
A) Correlation Analysis. 7
Interpretation 8
Kansai Nerolac.
A) Returns Analysis 9
A) Correlation Analysis. 10
Interpretation. 11
Preface
Economic Analysis of all Co.'s. 13-19
Industry Analysis of all Co.'s. 20-27
Company Analysis of all Co.'s. 28-30
31
Beta Interpretation of all Co.'s.
32
References.
Comparing Stock with market Index
Date Close
31-05-2019 460.7
30-05-2019 444
29-05-2019 446
28-05-2019 448.65
27-05-2019 440.6
24-05-2019 437.6
23-05-2019 421.45
22-05-2019 416.1
21-05-2019 405.05
20-05-2019 409.95
17-05-2019 410.5
16-05-2019 400.6
15-05-2019 399.2
14-05-2019 407.75
13-05-2019 406.45
10/5/2019 415.5
9/5/2019 430.2
8/5/2019 433.65
CLOSING PRICE
Log Close (X) or market index Log close SENSEX
3.69225095096465 39,714.20 -0.296104981669884
-0.449438958783933 39,831.97 0.831728688175139
-0.592412172400256 39,502.05 -0.625047932988121
1.81056393758238 39,749.73 0.167285633843649
0.68321832604714 39,683.29 0.62835457528775
3.76041046642803 39,434.72 1.5932886282207
1.27755304545954 38,811.39 -0.766979797280984
2.69150997123954 39,110.21 0.359657103922043
-1.20246847656864 38,969.80 -0.977683798184654
-0.134072785029628 39,352.67 3.68011691179513
2.4412505660765 37,930.77 1.42662983762323
0.350087879440906 37,393.48 0.747839030201609
-2.11916970638144 37,114.88 -0.547201876569219
0.3193321308542 37,318.53 0.612048649372712
-2.20216941029216 37,090.82 -0.998401266153337
-3.47676025381268 37,462.99 -0.255712138101987
-0.798754029683504 37,558.91 -0.611086144823032
0 37,789.13 0
Returns from SEXSEX (X) Returns from Berger (Y)
-0.296104981669884 3.69225095096465
0.831728688175139 -0.449438958783933
-0.625047932988121 -0.592412172400256
0.167285633843649 1.81056393758238
0.62835457528775 0.68321832604714
1.5932886282207 3.76041046642803
-0.766979797280984 1.27755304545954
0.359657103922043 2.69150997123954
-0.977683798184654 -1.20246847656864
3.68011691179513 -0.134072785029628
1.42662983762323 2.4412505660765
0.747839030201609 0.350087879440906
-0.547201876569219 -2.11916970638144
0.612048649372712 0.3193321308542
-0.998401266153337 -2.20216941029216
-0.255712138101987 -3.47676025381268
-0.611086144823032 -0.798754029683504
ALTERNATIVE METHOD:
BETA of Berger 0.58424542751642
Beta of SENSEX 1 Constant
Interpreation
Since, the Berger stock has 0.55 or 0.59 beta as as systematic risk which is less than market risk, hence it has lower
et risk, hence it has lower systematic risk.
Calcuate from 7 days after
Date Close Closing Price 7 days ago
1 330.55
300.4
2
3 300.25
4 302.95
5 310.55
6 310.65
7 307.35
8 310.35 330.55
9 311.7 300.4
10 312.75 300.25
11 299.85 302.95
12 296.25 310.55
13 297.3 310.65
14 297.2 307.35
15 299.25 310.35
16 301.25 311.7
17 302 312.75
18 303.7 299.85
From 8 th day to 18 th day 11 days are left so copy 1 to 8 days close price and paste that in the closing price 7
Interpretation
Uptrend values are above 0 and downtrend is the values below the zero line and below zero lines are oversold
RSI
IF current day price is more than immediate previous day price it is gain
Date Close
Gain
1 330.55 Nil
2 300.4
3 300.25
4 302.95 2.69999999999999
310.55
5 7.60000000000002
6 310.65 0.099999999999966
7 307.35
8 310.35 3
9 311.7 1.34999999999997
10 312.75 1.05000000000001
11 299.85
12 296.25
13 297.3 1.05000000000001
14 297.2
15 299.25 2.05000000000001
16 301.25 2
17 302 0.75
18 303.7 1.69999999999999
TOTAL 23.35
RS -0.465139442231075
RSI Less than 30 is oversold condition, consider buying this as more supply means less price
RSI More than 70 is overbough condition,consider selling as less supply means more price to max profits
RSI 100-[100/(1+RS)]
RSI 100-[100/(1+0.47)]
100
RSI 31.9727891156462
HERE PRICES ARE MOVING UPWARDS, OVERSOLD CONDITION OF THE MARKET. SIGNAL IS TO BUY THE SHARE
SMA
Simple Moving Average HERE
Date Close Start from 5th day immediately
Total Prices of 5 days
1 330.55
2 300.4
3 300.25
4 302.95
5 310.55 310.55
310.65
6 310.65
7 307.35 307.35
8 310.35 310.35
9 311.7 311.7
10 312.75 312.75
11 299.85 299.85
12 296.25 296.25
13 297.3 297.3
14 297.2 297.2
15 299.25 299.25
16 301.25 301.25
17 302 302
18 303.7 303.7
Interpretation
If the closing price & SMA are moving upwards it indicates upward trend & it is better to exit the market or th
Date Close
Factor
1 330.55
2 300.4
3 300.25
4 302.95
5 310.55
6 310.65
7 307.35
8 310.35
9 311.7
10 312.75
11 299.85
12 296.25
13 297.3
14 297.2
15 299.25
16 301.25
17 302
18 303.7
Price ratio ROC= Ratio-1
Days
3
4
5
6
7
0.94 -0.06 8
1.04 0.04 9
1.04 0.04 10
0.99 -0.01 11
0.95 -0.05 12
0.96 -0.04 13
0.97 -0.03 14
0.96 -0.04
0.97 -0.03
0.97 -0.03
1.01 0.01
ine and below zero lines are oversold position in the market. One should buy oversold shares as prices are less and sell shares in the over
Loss
Nil
-30.15
-0.149999999999977
Closing Price of
Date
Company X
6/3/2020 1387.6
-3.29999999999995 6/4/2020 1333.8
6/5/2020 1339.6
6/8/2020 1337.7
6/9/2020 1303.75
-12.9 6/10/2020 1334.25
-3.60000000000002 6/11/2020 1298.65
6/12/2020 1279.55
-0.100000000000023 6/15/2020 1249.55
6/16/2020 1276.85
6/17/2020 1241
6/18/2020 1303.35
6/19/2020 1302
-50.2 6/22/2020 1355.85
6/23/2020 1389.6
6/24/2020 1345.5
Avg loss per day
-2.95294117647059
68.0272108843537
62.11
98.8
Closing Price of
98.5 Date
Company X
C line indicates fall in price and above ROC indicated increase in price of the stock. Below 0 indicates oversold condition and above o indic
nd sell shares in the overbough region to make profit, or else there may be a trend reversals.
Gain Loss
NIL NIL
-53.8
5.8
-1.9
-33.95
30.5
-35.6
-19.1
-30
27.3
-35.85
62.35
-1.35
53.85
33.75
-44.1
35.5916666667 -28.405555556
-1.2529825934
44.2477876106
55.7522123894
Days Closing Price
1 98.8
2 98.5
3 110.7
4 115.5
5 111.45 106.99
6 111.5 109.53
7 106.05 111.04
8 105.25 109.95
9 100.45 106.94
10 94.75 103.6
11 95.45 100.39
12 96.4 98.46
13 102.45 97.9
14 102.65 98.34
5 DAYS EMA
98.8
98.701
3.927
5.61
0.2475
-1.32
-1.782
-2.0625
-1.848
-3.465
-1.65
0.5445
2.31
2.0625
sold condition and above o indicates overbought condition. The trading indication here is to buy the script/share when it is oversold and s
hare when it is oversold and sell when being overbough to receive maximum profit
Closing
Days
Price
1 98.8
2 98.5
3 110.7
4 115.5
5 111.45
6 111.5
7 106.05
8 105.25
9 100.45
10 94.75
11 95.45
12 96.4
13 102.45
14 102.65