Weather and Climate Extremes 30 (2020) 100277

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Weather and Climate Extremes

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Exploring climate variability and its impact on drought occurrence:

Evidence from Godavari Middle sub-basin, India
Md Masroor a, Sufia Rehman a, Ram Avtar b, **, Mehebub Sahana c, Raihan Ahmed a,
Haroon Sajjad a, *
a
Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India
b
Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Environment Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Japan
c
Post-doctoral Research Associate, School of Environment, Education and Development (SEED), University of Manchester, England, UK

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Godavari middle sub-basin covering one district of Telangana state and eleven districts of Maharashtra state in
Climate variability India has been experiencing severe drought due to climate variability over the past several decades. Lying in the
Standardized precipitation index rain shadow zone of Western Ghats (mountain pass), it receives scant rainfall. Therefore, monitoring and
Drought
assessing of drought is essential for lessening the impact on communities’ livelihood and environment. We
Godavari middle sub basin
utilized forty grid points data from global weather data for SWAT portal during 1979–2013 for assessing drought
Mann kendall test
conditions. Trends in important meteorological variables namely precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar
radiation and relative humidity were analyzed to examine the climate variability in the study area. Standardized
precipitation index (SPI) was determined for one, three, six and twelve month drought. Mann Kendall test and
Sen’s slope were used to analyze trend in precipitation.Multiple linear regression was performed to establish
relationship between meteorological variables and drought. Interpolation method of geographical information
system (GIS) was utilized for spatial analyses of climate variability, drought and trend in precipitation in the
study area. Findings revealed that watersheds located in south-western part of the sub-basin experienced
decreasing trend in precipitation and consequent frequent droughts. The study further reveals that the meteo­
rological variables have more impact on short-term drought.

1. Introduction
Climate variability is a complex phenomenon and considered as
transition between weather variability and climate change. It refers to
variation in the mean state and other statistics of the climate at various
scales beyond individual weather events (IPCC, 2013). It is one of the
important drivers of spatial and temporal changes in
hydro-meteorological variables (Nobre et al., 2017). Various disasters
namely flood, drought and cyclone are directly linked with climate
variability (Heltberg et al., 2011).Many parts of the planet earth have
experienced climate variability during present century (Najafi et al.,
2019) and India is no exception to this phenomenon (WGII & IPCC,
2007). Climate variability has increased the frequency and intensity of
hydrological events (Singh et al., 2016). The recent report of the IPCC
warned that the temperature may reach plausibly 1.5 ◦ C globally
between 2030 and 2052 (IPCC, 2018). It is also anticipated that the
mean global temperature would reach around 4 ◦ C by the end of the
century. The natural disasters of varying intensitieshavecaused 32,550
deaths and amounted economic losses at the cost of around US$ 70.3
billion in 2015 globally (IFRC, 2016).
Drought is taken as a deficit of water compared with normal condi­
tions (Sheffield and Wood, 2012; Ficklin et al., 2015). It is unpredictable
and at the same time most complex and least understood phenomenon
among all the natural hazards (Hagman, 1984; Amrit et al., 2018). It is
generally a spell with abnormally low precipitation that leads to water
scarcity. Rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, wind and solar radi­
ation are important meteorological factors which affect the occurrence,
frequency and intensity of droughts (Chang-Soo Rim, 2013). Droughts
are generally classified as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and
ecological. A meteorological drought may occur when a significant

* Corresponding author. Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India.
** Co-corresponding author. Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Environment Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Japan.
E-mail addresses: mdmasroor1994@gmail.com (M. Masroor), srfpinky@gmail.com (S. Rehman), ram.envjnu@gmail.com (R. Avtar), mehebubsahana@gmail.com
(M. Sahana), raihan.geog@gmail.com (R. Ahmed), haroon.geog@gmail.com (H. Sajjad).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100277
Received 30 May 2019; Received in revised form 9 August 2020; Accepted 20 August 2020
Available online 8 September 2020
2212-0947/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
M. Masroor et al.
decrease in precipitation is expected from seasonal and normal precip­
itation (Kulshreshtha and Klein, 1989). Reduction in stream flow,
depletion of water stored in lakes and reservoirs, lowering of ground
water table and reduction in groundwater runoff are considered to be
the significant factors for hydrological drought (Palmer, 1965). Agri­
cultural drought occurs when the rainfall and soil moisture are not
sufficient during the crop season to support healthy crop growth (SAI
et al., 2016). Spring Global Attitude Survey (2015) reported that
drought ranked first among all the climate change induced hazards.
Droughts create severe problems and badly affect the economy.
Droughts also influence domestic and industrial water supply thereby
threatening economic and environmental conditions and in extreme
cases the human survival (Nairizi, 2017).Drought has become more
frequent and severe phenomena with increase in greenhouse gases, El
Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the climate change (Alexander
et al., 2009; Mishra and Singh, 2009; Dai, 2011). Many parts of the
world including arid and semi-arid countries of North Africa, India,
North China, Middle East, Mexico, Middle Asia, Australia, Canada,
South-western Europe and western United States have faced severe
droughts over the decades (Nairizi, 2017). Nearly 11 million people
have lost their lives because of drought globally since 1900 (FAO, 2013).
India has suffered many major and worst droughts in the lastfew decades
(Amrit et al., 2018). Disaster Statistical Review (2016) revealed that
drought has affected nearly 0.33 billion people and caused damage at
the cost of US$ 1.5 billion in India (Guha et al., 2016). Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, Gujarat and Rajasthan are worst
drought affected states in India. Maharashtra has been identified as one
of the vulnerable states to drought having low adaptive capacity to
climate change and less potential to cope with climate variability and
climate change (TERI, 2014). This state falls in the zone having high to
very high climate sensitivity with a widespread dependence on agri­
culture for livelihood and experiences severe drought causing crop
failure, loss of agricultural production, water scarcity and migration
(Chang and Bonnette, 2016). Therefore, it becomes imperative to assess
climate variability and its impact on drought to attract the attention of
policy makers and safeguard the communities.
Many indices have been used for assessing drought globally. Various
scholars have used surface water supply index (SWSI) for assessing hy­
drological fluctuations (Dezman et al., 1982; Garen, 1993; Kim et al.,
2012; Khan et al., 2018). However, being complicated it is not used
extensively. Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is commonly used
index for assessing drought (Palmer, W. C. 1965; Gutzler and Robbins,
2011; Song et al., 2011; Ionita et al., 2012; Mo et al., 2017; Mares et al.,
2016). One of the limitations of this index is non-comparability across
the regions. Palfai aridity index (PAI) is another region-specific index
used in South-east European countries (Pálfai, 2002; Blanka et al., 2013;
Mezősi et al., 2016). Decile index (Morid et al., 2006), crop moisture
index (Palmer, 1968), rainfall anomaly index (Van Rooy, 1965), Palmer
drought severity index (Willeke et al., 1994) and atmospheric crop
moisture index (Uang et al., 2017) are also used to monitor drought.
Various scholars have also utilized the remote sensing data sets for
drought monitoring (Muthumanickam et al., 2011; AghaKouchak et al.,
2015; Prakash, 2018). Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) con­
siders less than 75 per cent rainfall than the long-term average as
drought (IMD, 2014). This method was widely criticized for being po­
litical in nature and therefore, the word drought which was earlier
described for poor rainfall replaced with deficient year. Recently, IMD
has started using standardized precipitation index (SPI) to assess dry and
wet conditionsin the country (McKee et al., 1993; Edwards, 1997).
Survey of earlier studies revealed that drought conditions were assessed
globally (Palmer, W. C. 1965; Willeke et al., 1994; Zhai et al., 2010;
Bacanli et al., 2011; Song and Liu, 2011; Ionita et al., 2012; Mo et al.,
2017; Mares et al., 2016). However, drought is scantly investigated in
Indian Sub-continent (Kumar et al., 2010; Ram et al., 2011; Maity et al.,
2016; Bisht et al., 2019). Further, most of the scholars investigated
earlier studies in India focusing on either climate variability (Sinha
2
Weather and Climate Extremes 30 (2020) 100277
&Swaminathan, 1991; Mohanty et al., 1994; Hundal, 2007) or drought
(Gregory S, 1989; Sankar Rao, 1990; Singh, 1998; Rathore et al., 2010;
Reddy &Genguily, 2012; Sharma et al., 2016; Guhathakurta et al., 2017;
Bisht et al., 2019). This paper makes an embryonic attempt to assess the
impact of climate variability on drought intensity and duration.
2. Study area
Godavari middle sub-basin (GMSB) coincides with Marathwada re­
gion of Maharashtra state in India. It spreads over eleven districts of
Maharashtra and one district of Telangana and lies in leeward side of
Western Ghats. It is located between 18◦ 21′ 41′′ and 20◦ 34′ 6′′ north
latitudes and 75◦ 9’15′′ and 78◦ 22′ 17′′ east longitudes with a geograph­
ical area of 4 million hectares (Fig. 1). The sub-basin has 56 watersheds.
Nearly 13.4 million population resides in the sub-basin. It enjoys trop­
ical climate with high temperature and low rainfall. The average rainfall
here is 750 mm while average temperature is 27.5 ◦ C. Most of its rainfall
is received through south-west monsoon. South-west monsoon reaches
western coast in the month of June and causes massive rainfall along the
western part of Maharashtra.Undulating topography of the study area
makes it more vulnerable to droughts. Ajanta plateau, Buldhana plateau,
Satmala hills and some parts of WesternGhats (mountain range lying
parallel to the western coast of the Indian peninsula) are located in the
study area. The study area is well drained by Godavari and its tributaries.
The soil of the sub-basin is chromic vertisol (Vc). This soil is suitable for
cotton cultivation. The sub-basin comes under the rain shadow zone of
Western Ghatsand receives low rainfall. The sub-basinis facing severe
drought conditions and water scarcity over decades (Bhawan and
Puram, 2014).Ithas faced several droughts in the past and with fre­
quency of occurrence of two droughts per decade (Gore and Ray, 2002).
Nearly 2 million farmers were affected because of drought in
thesub-basin in 2015 (SANDRP, 2015). Most parts of the sub-basin are
characterized by arid and semi-arid lands. Agriculture is the mainstay of
the economy in the study area and most of the farmers still depend on
rainfall for growing crops. Some watersheds of thesub-basin are more
vulnerable due to lack of water availability in the study area.
3. Database and methodology
This section presents methodological framework for assessing
climate variability and its impact on drought conditions in the study
area. Climate variability was analyzed using meteorological factors.
Drought conditions were examined using standardized precipitation
index (SPI). Mann Kendall’s test was used for analyzing trend in pre­
cipitation while magnitude of trend was ascertained using Sen’s slope
estimation. Multiple linear regression was used to examine the impact of
climate variability on drought. The detailed methodology is presented in
Fig. 2.
3.1. Meteorological factors
The climate data was obtained from global weather data for SWAT
portal (https://globalweather.tamu.edu/).Temperature, wind speed,
solar radiation, relative humidity and precipitation indicators were
chosen for analyzing climate variability. The data maintained by Na­
tional Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast
System Reanalysis (CFSR) was utilized for a period of 35 years from
1979 to 2013. The data was extracted from global network of weather
stations and satellite data. These datasets having horizontal resolution of
36 kms can be used for hydrological modelling of the watersheds (Fuka
et al., 2014). The data of precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar
radiation and relative humidity is recorded by conventional and mete­
orological gauge observation and satellite irradiances using the
cutting-edge assimilation techniques.These data are better than the
traditional weather gauging stations (Dile and Srinivasan, 2014). We
analyzed trend in CFSR grid precipitation data (the most significant
M. Masroor et al.
Fig. 1. Location of the study area: A) Godavari Middle sub-basin in India, B) sub-basin in Maharashtra & Telangana C) watersheds of the sub-basin.
meteorological variable in case of drought analysis) and in-situ precip­
itation (Indian Metrological data) for all the stations located in the study
area.
The trend of precipitation for CFSR and IMD showed similar pattern
(Fig. 3). Correlation between CFSR and in-situ IMD observation stations
data was also found positive and significant. Correlation between both
the datasets was found 0.584, 0.607, 0.639, 0.671, 0.785, and 0.656 for
Aurangabad, Bid, Hingoli, Nanded, Nizamabad and Parbhanistations
respectively. Hence, CFSR grid data is reliable over the study area.
3.2. Standardized precipitation index (SPI)
We utilized standardized precipitation index (SPI) proposed by
McKee et al. (1993). In this index, precipitation is transformed into
normalized values and SPI is used to assess drought conditions based on
probability distribution of long-term precipitation.The index is effective
in estimating magnitude, severity and spatial extent of drought. Monthly
3
Weather and Climate Extremes 30 (2020) 100277
precipitation was used for determining standardized precipitation index.
SPI values were classifiedon the scale given by McKee et al. (1993)and
presented in Table 1. SPI was calculated using 35 years precipitation
data. The long-term precipitation was fitted to a probability distribution
and then converted into an index. SPI is one of the effective indices for
drought assessment in a specific duration over a region (Payab &Türker,
2018). SPI provides the long-term assessment of precipitation by
comparing the cumulative historical figures of precipitation. The pre­
cipitation values are converted to normal distribution with one standard
deviation and mean zero (Kumar et al., 2010). The wet and abnormal
wet conditions are depicted by positive and higher SPI values while
negative and lower values represent the dry conditions. SPI value equal
to or less than − 1 represents drought while positive value of SPI in­
dicates the end of drought. Since SPI is based on normalized data,
droughts can be assessed in different regions.
SPI is designed to quantify the precipitation deficit for multiple
timescales. One month SPI is utilized for meteorological drought, three
M. Masroor et al. Weather and Climate Extremes 30 (2020) 100277

Fig. 2. Methodological framework of the study.

Fig. 3. Trend in IMD and CFSR average monthly precipitation (1979–2002).

4
M. Masroor et al. Weather and Climate Extremes 30 (2020) 100277

Table 1
Classification of SPI values for defining drought Where, N is the series of data, lh is the number of ties for the hthvalue, g
intensities. is the number of tied values.
SPI values Category The adjustment for tied data is represented second term. The test was
− 2.0 and less Extremely dry
computed as:
− 1.5 to − 1.99 Severely dry ⎧
⎪ S− 1
− 1.0 to − 1.49 Moderately dry ⎪
⎪
⎪ 2
− 0.99 to 0.99 Near normal
⎪
⎨ σ
1.0 to 1.49 Moderately wet ZMK = 0 (4)
1.5 to 1.99 Very wet
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ S+1
2.0 and above Extremely wet
⎪
⎩ 2
σ
Source: Adapted from McKee et al. (1993).
If S > 0, S = 0, S < 0. Positive and negative ZMK values show
increasing and decreasing trend respectively. For examining monotonic
month SPI for agricultural drought and twelve month for hydrological
trend at a p significance level, the absolute value of Z greater than Z1 =
drought. One month SPI at the end of the month compares the one
h/2 is obtained from the table of standard normal cumulative distribu­
month precipitation total for that month in the particular year with the
tion for null hypothesis (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1948; Modarres &Silva.,
month precipitation total of all the years on record. Thus, one month SPI
2007).
reflects short term conditions. Its application can be related closely to
meteorological type of drought. A three month SPI reflects moderate
3.4. Sen’s slope estimator for magnitude of trend
moisture conditions and provides a seasonal estimation of precipitation.
Six month SPI can be effective in showing the precipitation over distinct
Sen’s estimator statistics was used for predicting the magnitude of
seasons. The SPI at twelve month timescale reflects long term precipi­
trend. The slope (Ti) of data pairswas computed as (Sen, 1968):
tation patterns. It compares the precipitation for twelve consecutive
months with that recorded in the same twelve consecutive months in all yj − yk
Ti = (5)
previous years of available data. When the SPI value is equal or less than j− k
− 2 it is designated as extreme drought. When SPI values range between
For i = 1,2,3,4,5 … … … …. n. Where, yj and yk represent the data
− 2 and − 1.5 it is considered to be severe drought and when the values
values for the time j and k (j > k). Sen’s slope estimator was represented
extend from − 1.5 to − 1, it is regarded as moderate drought (Tirivar­
by median N values of Ti:
ombo et al., 2018).
Great care should be taken while comparingthe data of the regions ⎧
where precipitation is highly seasonal. Different drought types (agri­ ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ TN+1
cultural, meteorological and hydrological) can easily be analyzed ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ 1
through SPI. Forty-point data of precipitation in the sub-basin has been ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎨
averaged to assess temporal drought conditions in the study area using Qi =
N is odd
(6)
SPI: ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ ( )
⎪
⎪ 1
Xi − μ ⎪ N N + 2 N is even
SPIi = (1) ⎪
⎪
⎪
T +T
σ ⎩2 2 2

Where,SPI = standardized precipitation index,i = month, Xi = precipi­

tation in i month, μ = average precipitation σ = standard deviation. When N is odd, Sen’s estimator is calculated as:
Intensity of drought is represented by extreme dry values in the sub-
T(N + 1)
basin.Relationship between SPI values and meteorological variables was Qmed = (7)
2
analyzed using multiple linear regression.
If N appears even is calculated as:

3.3. Assessment of precipitation trend using Mann Kendall’s test [ ( )]

N
Qmed = T +T N+2 ÷2 (8)
Trend in precipitation was analyzed using the Mann Kendall test: 2 2

∑
N ∑
N− 1
( ) Qmed is computed by a two-sided test at 100 (1-α) % confidence in­
S= Sign yi − yj (2)
i=j+1 j=1 terval. Positive and negative values of Qi indicate increasing and
decreasing trend for time series (Mondal et al., 2012).
Here, N = series of data, j = 1,2,3 … …N, i = j+1,2,3 …. ..N, yj =
precipitation rank from jth, yi = precipitation rank from ith
Mean and variance for statistic (S) were derived as:

{
( ) 1 if θ > 0
yi − yj = θ sign (θ) The mean of S is E[S] = 0 and the variance σ 2 is
0 if θ = 0 − 1 if θ < 0

∑g
N(N − 1)(2N + 5) − lh(lh − 1)(2lh + 5)
σ2 = h=1
(3)
18

5
M. Masroor et al.
3.5. Multiple linear regression
Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to establish the
relationship between meteorological variables (q) and SPI values (r).
The SPI regression line for explanatory variables (q1, q2, …, qp) were
defined to be μr = β0 + β1q1 + β2q2 + … + βpqp (Mudelsee, 2013).
Regression line for p explanatory variables q1, q2, …, qp is defined to be
μr = β0 + β1q1 + β2q2 + … + βpqp (Mudelsee, 2013). This line describes
how the mean response μr changes with the explanatory variables. Multi
linear regression was executed as:
ri = β0 + β1qi1 + β2qi2 + ... βpqip + εi for i = 1, 2, ... n
4. Results
4.1. Climate variability
Spatial and temporal climate of the study area has been experiencing
variability due to unseasonal rainfall, slumps in rainy days, increased
intensity of heat waves and fluctuations in temperature. Maximum
precipitation (540 mm) was recorded in August 1989 while the average
annual rainfall was 750 mm during 1979–2013 indicating great vari­
ability in rainfall. No significant change has been observed in monthly
precipitation. Spatial pattern of precipitation trend revealed that wa­
tersheds located in south-western part of the sub-basin have decreasing
trend of annual average precipitation while watersheds located in
eastern and northern parts have experienced increasing trend in pre­
cipitation (Figs. 4A & 5A). Temperature has increased for the last 35
years in the study area. However, the rate of increasing of temperature
was not significant. Average monthly temperature varied between 19 ◦ C
and 36 ◦ C. The average monthly temperature has increasing trend in the
watersheds located in western part of thesub-basin while watersheds
located in eastern part have registered negative trend in average
Fig. 4. Interpolation map of climate variable: A) precipitation, B) temperature, C) relative humidity, D) solar radiation and E) wind speed.
Weather and Climate Extremes 30 (2020) 100277
monthly temperature (Figs. 4B & 5B). Relative humidity has significance
implication and also affects other meteorological variables. Moreover, it
acts as a greenhouse gas and contributes to global warming (Dessler
et al., 2008). Overall relative humidity has increased during the study
period. The spatial pattern of relative humidity shows that watersheds
located in far eastern part and south western part experienced
decreasing trend of relative humidity while watersheds located in
middle part of sub basin have increasing trend (Figs. 4C & 5C). Solar
radiation is a meteorological parameter to assess climate variability and
is directly related to air temperature. Increasing trend of solar radiation
was found in the study area during 1979–2013. Very high and high solar
(9)
radiation trend was recorded in north-western part while middle part
has very low increasing trend (Figs. 4D & 5D). Wind speed has also
shown decreasing trend in the study area (Figs. 4E and 5E). Similar
result was also found in the study of Jhajharia et al. (2014). Thus, it can
be clearly seen that climate has shown variability in its controls.
4.2. Drought assessment
Sub-basin-wise analysis of SPI values for all droughts during
1979–2013 revealed that 6- month drought has a decreasing trend of SPI
values. A decreasing trend of SPI for one month drought was observed in
January, February, August and December. January, February and March
have shown decreasing trend in SPI values for 3-month drought. Only
April and May have shown decreasing trend of SPI for the 6-month
drought. No decreasing trend of SPI was observed in any month for
12-month drought. Extreme drought (<-2.0) conditions for one, three,
six and 12-months was found in September, November, June and July
respectively. Extreme drought for one month was observed in September
1982, October 1991, June 1996, August 1999, October 2000 and July
2002 (Fig. 6A). For 3-month drought the most extreme conditions have
been recorded in October 1982, November 1991, July 1992, June 1996,
December 2000 and September 2001 (Fig. 6B) while September 1982,
6
M. Masroor et al.
Fig. 5. Trend of the meteorological variables during 1979–2013 in Godavari middle sub-basin.
Fig. 6. SPI values for one month, three month, six month and twelve month drought.
January 1992, July 1992, June 1996, February2001 and April 2012
recorded most extreme drought for 6 months. August 1981, July 1992
and September 2001 were extreme drought months for 12-month
drought (Fig. 6 C & D).
4.3. Spatial analysis of drought
Largest area under extreme drought for one month was observed in
September 1982 (all watersheds) followed by June 1996 (37 watersheds
in central part having 2.7 mh area), October 1991 (26 watersheds
located in north-western part of the sub-basin having 1.8 mh area),
August 1999 (24 watersheds located in central part of the sub-basin
having 1.7 mh area), and July 2002 (3 watersheds located in north-
western part of the sub-basin having 0.24 mh area). Low precipitation,
low relative humidity, low wind speed and high average temperature
caused extreme drought conditions for one month drought (Appendix
A). Largest area under severe drought (− 2.0 to − 1.5) for one month was
Weather and Climate Extremes 30 (2020) 100277
observed in July 2002 (48 watersheds located in the sub-basin having
3.14 mh area) followed by October 2000 (34 watersheds located in
north-western and central part of thesub-basin having 2.37 mh area),
August 1999 (32 watersheds located in north-western and eastern part
of the sub-basin having 2.2 mh area), October 1991 (30 watersheds
located in central and eastern part of the sub-basin having 2.1 mh area)
and June 1996 (18 watersheds located in north-western and eastern part
of the sub-basin having 1.1 mh area). Only few watersheds (located in
south and south-eastern part of sub-basin) have moderate drought
(− 1.49 to − 1.0) during July 2002 (Fig. 7).
4.3.1. SPI three months
Largest area under extreme drought for three months was observed
in November 1991 (all watersheds) followed by June 1996 (33 water­
sheds in the central part having 2.6 mh area), December 2000 (36 wa­
tersheds located in north-eastern and south-eastern parts of thesub-basin
having 2.5 mh area), September 2001 (nearly 26 watersheds in south