YORK TRADING CLUB

Year-End Macro- Reflecting on

one year into
Environment & Portfolio the trader’s
Report new normal

April 5th, 2021

Table of Contents
MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENTS..............................................................................................................2
PART 1: MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT REPORT ..........................................................................3
MARKET OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................................3
FACTORS THAT HAVE IMPACTED MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ..................................................................3
Vaccine Rollout ...............................................................................................................................................3
Expansionary Monetary Policies and Economic Stimuli ................................................................................5
Global Trade ...................................................................................................................................................6
INDUSTRY SPOTLIGHT ..........................................................................................................................................6
E-Commerce ....................................................................................................................................................7
Online Sports Betting & Streaming Services...................................................................................................8
“Meme” Stocks................................................................................................................................................8
THIS MONTH’S STOCK PICKS ...............................................................................................................................9
DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG).......................................................................................................................9
Disney (NYSE: DIS) ........................................................................................................................................9
Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) ...............................................................................................................10
LOOKING AHEAD ................................................................................................................................................10
PART 2: PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE & RISK ........................................................................................11
YTC PRINCIPLE FUND OVERVIEW (CLASS A): ...................................................................................................11
YTC PORTFOLIO AT-A-GLANCE ........................................................................................................................12
STOCK PITCHES ..................................................................................................................................................12
PayPal ...........................................................................................................................................................12
Lockheed Martin............................................................................................................................................13
Lululemon ......................................................................................................................................................14
AMD ..............................................................................................................................................................14
RISK MANAGEMENT ...........................................................................................................................................15
REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................................................16

Contributing Authors:
Aron Goldenberg, Co-President Editor
Christopher Chamoun, VP of Finance Author
Nancy Dam, VP of Investments Author
Pelumi Obasa, Portfolio Manager Author
Shumin Li, Finance Associate Author

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Message from the Presidents
Dear YTC Members & The York University Community,

I hope everyone is doing well and enjoying the last bit of the 2020/2021 academic year...one that will
go down in the history books.

As the school year comes to an end, I wanted to take a moment to reflect the past year, and the strides
the York Trading Club has made in becoming the largest and most diverse student-run finance
association at York University. While this past year prohibited us from carrying events in-person, I am
incredibly proud of the work we did to further education and reduce transparency associated with
personal trading and finance as a whole.

Each executive on our diverse and talented team played a role in our operation this year, and I am
pleased to highlight a number of achievements and successes:
● We ran a number of expert-led investment analysis workshops for audience at all levels.
● We hosted a variety of industry workshops, reducing barriers to industries such as Investment
Banking and Private Equity.
● Developed a new online trading platform, with a dedicated derivatives account, made up of
securities pitched by our analysts along with proprietary portfolio optimization from our
portfolio manager.
● Fostered the learning and development of our analysts – some of whom placed in top positions
in international competitions, such as McGill Investment Club’s ESG stock pitch.
● Nearly complete ratification process by the Undergraduate Business Council (UBS), to become
a Schulich-affiliated club (final sign-off expected in June 2021).

I am tremendously grateful and appreciate all the help the YTC Executive Team put into ensuring our
value-proposition and event offering did not decline despite a fully virtual experience. The dedication
and perseverance of our executives is the reason for our success as a team. The multitude of challenges
our team experienced this past year, including significant time discrepancies with our team located
internationally, has contributed to our overall learning and growth.

I am also very proud of the culture we were able to foster among our executives, despite never having
met some of them in-person. On a daily basis, we engaged in insightful conversations about
macroeconomic events along with trading strategies we were utilizing in our own investment portfolios.
Take the opportunity to learn, because the most valuable commodity is information.

I am very excited to watch the incoming co-presidents take YTC to the next level, and continue to
expand its reach within the York community. There is opportunity for continued growth, and I am
confident that the new executive team will carry forward YTC’s vision, mission and values. I wish them
nothing but success.

Aron Goldenberg Shreya Kothari

Co-President, YTC 2020/2021 Co-President, YTC 2020/2021

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Part 1: Macroeconomic Environment Report
Note: all stock prices are as of 4:00PM EDT on April 1, 2021

Market Overview
Christopher Chamoun, VP of Finance

March 2021 marked one year from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since our last report
in March 2020, the global number of cases has grown from 900,000 to 130,089,721 as of April 1, 2021
(worldometers.info, 2021), lockdowns have been sporadic (particularly in the Western world), and
several authorized vaccines, such as Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson/Janssen, are
currently being rolled out on different schedules throughout the world.

From a trader’s perspective, the last year has been quite sporadic. Following the market-wide
plummet reported in our March 2020 report, the three major equity indexes - the S&P 500, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite - have all followed a very similar upward trend,
rising 61.53%, 57.48%, and 82.83%, respectively, since March 30, 2020 (as of April 1, 2021). However,
the upward trend has been punctuated by a myriad of macroeconomic factors, including the United
States’ 2020 federal elections, vaccination developments and rollouts, and more, causing traders to be
more opportunistic and vigilant of these macroeconomic factors. Additionally, the Chicago Board
Options Exchange (CBOE)’s Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of economic the S&P 500 Index’s
implied volatility, has reflected the past year’s unprecedented stock market volatility, reaching a near-
record high of 85.47 last March, and since following a general downward trend disrupted by several
periods of sudden spikes (Ahmed, 2021).

Following the volatile trading environment of the last twelve months, traders are now faced
with a number of questions and considerations that will shape their trading strategies and their
portfolios’ success, including:
● Has the benefit of global portfolio diversification been reduced, given the worldwide nature of
the pandemic and its interrelated effects on different countries?
● Many sectors have experienced unprecedented growth during the pandemic, but which ones are
poised for continued growth post-pandemic?
● Will technology companies, notably the five FAANG giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple,
Netflix, and Google) maintain their growth and popularity among traders? Or will we witness
the rise of a new dominant sector?

This report will seek to provide answers to some of these questions, and guide traders on how
to navigate the currently murky waters of the equity markets.

Factors that Have Impacted Macroeconomic Performance

Shumin Li, Financial Associate

Vaccine Rollout
Although the global economy has been hit hard by COVID-19 in 2020, many experts are
optimistic about the economic restart of 2021 due to recent vaccine approvals and rollouts in many
countries. Many large-scale corporations, such as Google, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan are pushing

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for a return to their offices this September. David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, believes that
working from home undermines the innovative and collective apprenticeship culture of the firm and
decreases employees’ productivity as a whole (Kelly, 2021). Moreover, many universities are planning
to provide in-person lectures in small class sizes for the upcoming academic year. Based on Morgan
Stanley’s predictions, the global economy is expected to grow 6.4% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.
Therefore, the rollout of vaccines is considered a sign of increasing productivity and a potential restart
of the economy.

As it stands, Israel has delivered the most effective vaccine rollout with 108 doses administered
per 100 people, followed by Seychelles and the United Arab Emirates (Holder, 2021). 28% and 4.6%
of American and Chinese citizens, respectively, have received their first vaccine doses (for reference,
these two nations develop their own vaccines).

From a macroeconomic standpoint, numerous industries have been negatively impacted by

COVID-19, the airline industry being a glaring example. Airlines for America (A4A) reported that U.S.
airlines transported approximately 2.5 million passengers pre-COVID on a daily basis and the number
dropped by 96% in April of 2020 (Carrick, 2021). With the vaccine rollout, the airline industry has
slowly rebounded. As of January 15, 2021, A4A announced that passenger volumes were down 58%
relative to pre-COVID levels (Carrick, 2021). However, the industry is unlikely to return to this
“normal” before 2024, despite vaccines providing some hope to people who are sceptical of the safety
of international travel.

On the contrary, vaccine distributions create great opportunities for technology companies,
such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Workday. The vaccine distribution is a very data-
driven process and it is essential for these tech giants to contribute to the success of this process. For
example, Workday built an internal system that enables organizations to track the immunization status
of their employees and organizational vaccination rates (Newman, 2021). These companies’
contributions to the development of vaccine-related solutions partially explain why their market values
have increased during the past year,

However, vaccines create the issue of unequal distributions. Many developing economies with
insufficient public health systems currently do not have access to COVID vaccines, whereas developed
countries like the U.S. are beginning to hoard large supplies of vaccines. Experts believe that
politicizing the vaccine issue is short-sighted, as all nations are connected under globalization. There
will not be a single winner in this race and the global economy will be hindered by certain countries
being denied access to sufficient vaccines.

Furthermore, the appearance of new variants of viruses poses a threat to macroeconomic

performance. Even though there is no evidence to show that the vaccines will be ineffective under the
circumstance, it may still negatively impact consumer behaviours. For instance, the personal saving rate
in the U.S. skyrocketed to a record 32.2% during COVID (Gailey, 2021), demonstrating that people are
purchasing less and saving more to protect their finances.

Even though the new variants of viruses are stoking COVID-19 angst, traders are still holding
an optimistic outlook on the stock market and economic recoveries. According to BlackRock, once the
pandemic restrictions are lifted, ample cash will be released, coupled with fiscal stimulus efforts in
developed countries, which will set a solid foundation for the stock picker’s market. Specifically,
companies that can speed up their production will benefit from the economy by meeting increasing

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demand and raising prices when the overall supply is still constrained. Therefore, industries that are
potentially worth investing in include materials, chemicals, and semiconductors.

Expansionary Monetary Policies and Economic Stimuli

Many developed countries have enacted financial rescue plans to combat the economic impacts
of the pandemic, aiming to reopen their economies. On March 11, 2021, the White House (U.S.)
approved the American Rescue Plan by providing another round of economic relief of $1,844 billion to
invest in the public health response and offer assistance to households, communities, and businesses. It
also extended the unemployment benefits program, funded the reopening of schools, and added
additional resources to the vaccination program. Canada, on the other hand, spent $52.7 billion on the
public health system, including COVID testing, vaccine development, and greater support for
indigenous communities. The country also enacted Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) to
help unemployed and self-employed Canadians remain financially afloat during COVID.

The above two examples used increased government spending to increase GDP and reopen
their economies. As the saving ratio increases, these policies aim to restart their economies by
stimulating consumption to offset the decline of private sector investments, while protecting domestic
businesses.

Figure 1 - History of United States Federal Interest Rates

Based on the graph shown above, the Federal interest rate of the U.S. dropped dramatically
from 2019, from approximately 2.25% to current 0.25% (FocusEconomics, 2021). The federal
government plans to maintain this interest rate due to the economic fallout caused by the ongoing
pandemic. Despite the approval of a third U.S. stimulus package in March, employment rates are
projected to remain below the pre-pandemic levels and the sectors that were most affected by COVID-
19 will likely remain depressed (FocusEconomics, 2021).

The low Fed interest rate encourages consumers to spend more and save less, and businesses
will take the advantage of the lower rate to finance operations, acquisitions, and expansions, which in
turn, leads to a higher stock price (Hall, 2020). Furthermore, for fixed income-oriented investors, a
decrease in the interest rate means a decreased opportunity to make money through the bond market.
Therefore, investors may transfer their money from the bond market to the equity market.

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 Moreover, since households tend to sell more assets in exchange for cash on hand during the
pandemic, the Bank usually helps restore activities in the market through purchasing bonds and debt.
For example, the Bank of Canada started to buy Canada Mortgage Bonds, commercial paper, bankers’
acceptances, corporate bonds, and federal and provincial government debt, helping keep credit available
for Canadian companies and households. The rationale behind this strategy is that through making the
purchase, the bond's price rises while the yield drops, which enables cheaper, more accessible credit
that incentivizes businesses and households to invest and spend. Also, QE (quantitative easing) is a
signal that the policy interest rate will remain lower than usual as long as inflation is kept under control.
Thus, QE can help reduce longer-term borrowing costs for businesses and households.

Looking forward, the Fed expects GDP to grow 6.5% and the unemployment rate to average
4.5% in Q4 2021 (FocusEconomics, 2021). This is because as the interest rate decreases, the cost of
borrowing also decreases, which induces companies to hire more workers and creates more job
opportunities. Moreover, the consumer expenditure inflation rate is projected to average 2.4% in the
same quarter of the year (FocusEconomics, 2021). The rising inflation will reduce the purchasing power
of each unit of currency, and stocks are often more volatile during highly inflationary periods (Zucchi,
2021). If the price rises faster than the government’s expectations, central banks will tighten monetary
policy to control the inflation.

For potential investors, it is important to invest in the industries that are less affected by the
pandemic and those that can take advantage of the monetary policy. According to a McKinsey report,
businesses that are mostly affected by the pandemic with a higher financial risk include accommodation
and food services, arts, entertainment and recreation, educational services, wholesale trade, and
transportation and warehousing (Dua et al., 2020). On the contrary, businesses such as professional
services, finance and insurance, and real estate appear to be less vulnerable to the changes in monetary
policy (Dua et al., 2020).

Global Trade
The pandemic is affecting international trade negatively, as many countries have closed their
country borders and started to implement protectionist measures. In the transportation industry, for
example, in 2020, U.S. delivery truck exports decreased by $1 billion in April and May, and U.S. aircraft
exports dropped by $6 billion in May and June (A. Hidalgo, 2020). Border closures help control the
spread of the virus, but in the long run, those countries may lose access to essential healthcare products,
PPE, or other necessities to combat COVID-19.

Additionally, the trade war between the U.S. and China remains ongoing, which indirectly
affects stock prices through global value chain linkages in the U.S., China, and other countries indirectly
involved in the trade war (Egger, 2020). The trade war will potentially create more stock market turmoil.
For example, the escalation in the trade war of August 2019 caused all three major U.S. stock indexes
to nose-dive: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.9%, the S&P 500 by 3%, and the tech-heavy
NASDAQ Composite by 3.5% (Marte, 2019). Analysts believe that if the U.S. and China do not resolve
this issue, the stock market will continue to experience such turbulence.

Industry Spotlight
Christopher Chamoun, VP of Finance

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E-Commerce
It is no surprise that e-commerce has been at the centre of discussions about which sectors have
benefitted the most from the pandemic. According to a report by Digital Commerce 360, in 2020, U.S.
e-commerce sales rose 32.4%, nearly double the average 13-18% annual growth of the last decade (Ali,
2021). The sector also accounted for 21.3% of total U.S. retail sales in 2020, considerably more than
the 15.8% in 2019 and 14.3% in 2018 (Ali, 2021). These figures illustrate an upward trend that existed
pre-pandemic, and has been significantly accelerated by the pandemic. The below figures, provided by
Digital Commerce 360, further illustrate this accelerated growth:

Figure 2 - U.S. E-commerce Sales as a % of Total Retail Sales (Ali, 2021)

Figure 3 - U.S. Retail vs. E-commerce Sales Growth (Ali, 2021)

In our March 2020 report, we proposed Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) as a must-buy
stock because we forecasted that e-commerce would experience significant growth as a result of
nationwide lockdowns, uncertainty surrounding when the world’s economies would reopen safely, and
consumers’ comfort levels with returning to in-person shopping. In the past year, Amazon’s stock price
has risen 65.79%, as of April 1, 2021, but its growth has generally levelled out over the last 6 months.
Shopify’s stock price (TSX: SHOP) has also skyrocketed by 187.04% over the past year, demonstrating

7
the potential of the e-commerce industry to provide strong returns to traders who foresaw this rise, and
the growing consumer shift towards online retail.

We expect that with the gradual reopening of the world’s largest economies and vaccination
rollout, the growth of e-commerce will slow down for the time being, as it recently has for Amazon and
Shopify. However, the industry will continue to grow in importance year-over-year, and traders ought
to keep an eye out for macroeconomic developments, such as lockdowns or COVID variants, that will
once again sway consumers towards online shopping and spur new periods of industry growth.

Online Sports Betting & Streaming Services

Online sports betting and entertainment is on the rise in the United States, as single-game sports
betting was only legalized in any state outside of Nevada in 2018 (with Delaware being the first to allow
it). Since then, it has been legalized in 20 states, and 2020 revenues were $1.545B, 4.7x those of 2018,
illustrating the speed at which this industry is growing in the United States. Goldman Sachs predicts
that the US online sports betting industry will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40%
to $39B in 2033 (Willing, 2021). Furthermore, the U.S. November Presidential Election results revealed
that many voters prioritized “ballot measures that legalized sports betting and other gaming expansion
measures”.

Furthermore, over-the-top (OTT) sports streaming services, such as ESPN+, DAZN, and
Peacock, have considerably grown in popularity, as they begin to win crucial exclusivity deals with
major sports leagues in North America, such as DAZN’s three-year exclusive rights to the Premier
League in Canada. This operating model offers streaming services access to better analytics, as they
can better decipher the streaming choices made by individual users, as well as more opportunities to
tailor their content and pricing models to customers. According to Vimeo, another streaming service,
1.3M U.S. homes abandoned traditional cable or satellite TV service in Q2 2020, indicating that there
is a growing shift toward live OTT sports streaming (Hahn, 2020).

Traders should remain abreast of developments in this industry, as major streaming services
make their forays into live sports streaming over the next few years, and as major sports leagues
continue to abandon their exclusivity deals with cable TV in favour of OTT streaming services.

“Meme” Stocks
The first quarter of 2021 saw the rise of meme stocks, which consist of unconventional equity
securities that experience a rise in trading volumes not due to their respective companies’ financial
performance, but rather due to online traction on social media and forums (Gobler, 2021). The most
high-profile examples of 2021 include GameStop (NYSE: GME) and AMC Entertainment (NYSE:
AMC). Despite not performing well (operationally or financially) in recent periods, GameStop, a long-
standing video game retailing chain in a dying industry where a significant portion of consumers have
transitioned to digital shopping, experienced explosive stock price appreciation in January 2021. In its
most basic sense, the story began with a group of forum participants on Reddit purchasing large volumes
of GameStop shares in August 2020, which slowly built momentum and stock price appreciation until
January 2021, at which point a few sophisticated traders, who possessed professional finance experience
and operated under aliases, initiated a short squeeze of the stock. A short squeeze occurs when there is
a lack of supply and excess of demand for a stock due to short sellers needing to purchase stock to cover
their positions, causing a rapid price increase. Short selling allows investors to profit from the fall in
price of a stock by borrowing it today and selling it, with the agreement to purchase it at a given point

8
in the future (essentially betting on the possibility that the price will fall, thus profiting). In this case,
institutional investors, such as hedge funds, who had short sold GameStop scrambled and lost billions
of dollars as the stock price rose exponentially, when they had hoped that it would fall.

This unusual event, and similar ones that occurred in the same timeframe, brought a lot of
attention to the power of meme stocks, their potential upside, and the devastating risks that they impose
upon institutional investors. They also demonstrated that retail (individual/non-professional) investors
can exert significant market influence when they collaborate.

This Month’s Stock Picks

Christopher Chamoun, VP of Finance

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG)

DraftKings is an online betting and fantasy sports platform that was founded in 2012 and went
public in April 2020, at the height of the pandemic. This was an astute strategic decision made by the
company because, as discussed in the Industry Spotlight section, online sports betting is on the rise,
following the legalization of online sports betting in many U.S. states and the statewide lockdown
measures that led to the rise in online fantasy sports and betting.

From a technical standpoint, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their target stock price from $79
per share to $87 (the stock is currently priced at $62.88 per share, as of April 1, 2021). According to
IBD data, DraftKings experienced 98% year-over-year growth in Q3 2020 due to the return of major
sports leagues. It also experienced 25-30% revenue growth in 2020, and expects to generate 45%
revenue growth in 2021.

Lastly, in Q1 2021, DraftKings has undergone many strategic growth plans, including
expanding its daily fantasy partnership with the National Football League (NFL) to Canada in February
and becoming the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)’s official sportsbook and daily fantasy
partner in the U.S. and Canada, in early March.

Disney (NYSE: DIS)

Despite the lengthy closures of its theme parks and the delays of its cinematic productions, two
immense sources of Disney’s revenues, the company has adapted and performed strongly throughout
the pandemic. Its stock price is currently 101.29% higher than it was this time last year, largely due to
its considerable investments in its streaming services, Disney+ and ESPN+. Disney+ has been
particularly successful, reaching 94.9M subscribers in December 2020, nearly tripling its 33.5M
subscribers from Q2 2020, due to its heavy investments in exclusive content like The Mandalorian and
WandaVision. Additionally, On March 10, 2021, Disney reached a seven-year agreement with the
National Hockey League (NHL) that is reported to be worth $2-2.5B (Reuters, 2021). This deal has
earned Disney the exclusive rights to broadcast NHL games across its ABC, ESPN, ESPN+, and Hulu
streaming channels. Beyond its online services, Disney has set an April 30 reopening date for its
California theme parks, albeit at 15% capacity, which should help the company restabilize its revenues.

Disney reported a $0.32 earnings per share (EPS) on its $16.25B revenues after markets closed
on February 11, 2021, strongly beating out analysts’ expectations of a $0.45 loss. While park revenues
dropped by 53% to $3.59B, Disney’s direct-to-consumer revenues rose 73% to $3.50B, due to the

9
strength of its streaming services. Its relative strength line is currently near its highest in years, which
means that Disney’s stock has significantly outperformed the wider S&P 500 Index. However, traders
should be wary of its 13 EPS Rating and 32 Composite Ratings, which are well under the 80 minimum
for most growth stocks (Gondo, 2021).

Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ)

Canadian Solar is a Canadian solar energy company that designs and builds solar photovoltaic
modules, provides energy solutions, and operates solar power projects in over 160 countries, generating
$3.36B in total revenues (Johnston, 2020). Since his inauguration in January 2021, U.S. President Joe
Biden has quickly started enacting various policies that will provide a boost to the renewable energy
sector, such as reentering the Paris Climate Agreement, aiming for economy-wide net-zero emissions
by 2050, investing $400B in the next decade into clean energy and innovation, requiring public
companies to disclose climate-related financial risks and the greenhouse gas emissions in their
operations and supply chains, and more (joebiden.com, 2021). Whether these policies are enacted as
planned or their targets are achieved within their projected timeframes remains to be seen, but as it
stands, the renewable energy sector stands to gain considerably from the Biden Administration.
Canadian Solar, in particular, will benefit from projections that solar energy’s share of the global
electricity generation market will rise from 3% to 20% by 2050. It also expects its annual projects sales
gigawatts (unit measure of sales) to nearly double by 2021.

From a technical standpoint, Canadian Solar has been generating positive profits and positive
operating cash flows for years, overcoming the financial challenge that many nontraditional renewable
energy companies often face. In the last year, Canadian Solar’s stock has risen by 225.57%, rising
6.15% in the last five trading days alone. However, it is worth noting that it currently stands
considerably lower than its 52-week high of $67.39, which occurred around the time of Biden’s
inauguration in January 2021, likely as investors over-forecasted the growth prospects of renewables.

Looking Ahead
Christopher Chamoun, VP of Finance

This past year, like none other, has demonstrated the massive impacts that macroeconomic
factors can play on the performance of the equity markets. The pandemic (with all its pivotal moments
including lockdowns and vaccine rollouts), the U.S. Presidential Election, and many more all illustrated
this influence. In the coming months, as vaccination rollouts accelerate in North America, Europe, and
beyond, and as economies begin to reopen and shift towards the “new normal”, the equity markets will
certainly be affected, and new industries and companies will rise. Traders ought to increase the
importance that they attribute to macroeconomic factors in their analyses of equities, and remain on the
lookout for industries with disruptive business models that capitalize on long-term macroeconomic
trends, such as E-Commerce or Online Sports Betting & Streaming, as was outlined in the Industry
Spotlight section.

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Part 2: Portfolio Performance & Risk

YTC Principle Fund Overview (Class A):

Performance
● Return Since Inception: 20.13% ● Jenson’s Alpha: 0.32%
● YTD: 16.23% ● % of Positive Months: 75%

Risk
● Maximum Drawdown: -2.3%
● Beta: 1.66
● Sharpe Ratio: 0.8

Sector Exposure (Net)

Portfolio Weights by Equity (%)

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YTC Portfolio At-A-Glance
Pelumi Obasa, Portfolio Manager

The YTC Principle fund began trading on November 16, 2020 and as of April 1, 2021 the
account has achieved a cumulative return of 20.53% compared to 10.4% from the S&P 500
with a Sharpe ratio of .8 as well as a Jenson’s alpha of .32. The YTC portfolio was managed
by taking high quality stock pitches from our associates and combining them with stocks from
our quantitative equity trading model. Over the year the most successful stocks in the portfolio
have come from both associates and the quantitative model over the year associates have
pitched successful stocks such as Lockheed Martin which has earned a return of 10% in the
portfolio and Alexion pharmaceuticals which earned a return of 24% in the portfolio before
the position was closed . Successful stocks that came from the YTC quantitative model were
Viacom (VIAC) which earned a return of 51% before being closed out and Activision blizzard
(ATVI) which earned a 12% return.

YTC Analyst Team: YTC Analysts produced 2 rounds of stock pitches over the 2020-2021
academic session the best stock pitches from the associates would be added to the portfolio.
YTC Analysts utilized both intrinsic and relative valuation methods to come up with a fair
value estimate for their stock pitches and they utilized industry research, management plans,
potential risks and catalysts, their valuation models, as well as other research from equity
analysts in order to justify their buy recommendations.

YTC Quantitative Model: The YTC quant model is a proprietary quantitative model that was
developed in order to find stocks that are likely to outperform the market the YTC quantitative
model takes into account various factors such as size of companies valuations of companies ,
momentum of stock returns, the industry a company is in as well as many metrics aimed at
assessing the quality of firm’s management in order to find stocks that were likely to
outperform

Capital Allocation Model: After stocks were selected from associates and the YTC
quantitative model a mean-variance portfolio optimization model was used in order to allocate
stocks in the portfolio based off of their relationship with one another in a way that would
maximize return and minimize risk.

Stock Pitches
The stock pitches summaries are based from comprehensive pitch decks prepared by
the YTC analyst team, as part of regularly held internal stock pitches. The following stocks
were added to the YTC Class A Fund on the next trading day following the pitch.

PayPal
Pitch Prepared by Emelia Dandan, Rene D’Penha & Leslie Hu

The buy pitch created was for the PayPal stock with the ticker of PYPL. The thesis for
PayPal was to continue diversifying. It was the only financial technology company in China.
In January of 2021, PayPal acquired a payment online platform, GoPay, in China. PayPal was
the first and only foreign payments firm licensed to provide online payment services in China.

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China is home to the world’s largest payments market. PayPal has plans to acquire more
payment firms in China. PayPal and Mercado Libre integrated payment systems in Brazil and
Mexico. PayPal bought $750 million in stocks from Mercado Libre after the partnership
agreement. Mercado Libre allowed its users of the MercadoPago payment service to use PayPal
for transactions in other parts of the world. PayPal’s 300 million users will be allowed to buy
products from 500,000 sellers. PayPal also vertically integrated. In October of 2020, PayPal
created a credit card tailored around PayPal’s Venmo platform with features like an easier
ability to split payments between friends. It generated more revenue from peer-to-peer payment
services. PayPal also got into cryptocurrency. In November of 2020, PayPal launched a
cryptocurrency trading service, allowing clients to buy and sell Bitcoin. Customers are also
able to buy, sell and shop online with bitcoin and other digital currencies from their PayPal
wallets. When the stock was pitched, it was trading at $284.20. The expected upside potential
was 3% and a target price of $291.93. Currently, PayPal is trading at $243.77. PayPal and other
technology stocks have dropped in price recently. This can be party attributed to ARK reducing
its shares in PayPal stock to 1.7%, decreasing the number of PayPal shares it owns by about
33%. ARK was purchasing more of stocks its thinks are more desirable. Its decision to reduce
its share of PayPal stocks in its portfolios might imply that it has less confidence and other
investors might follow the same sentiment.

Lockheed Martin
Pitch Prepared by: Bea Tran, Rob Cornell, Laija Sadiq, Yufei Zhu

Lockheed Martin is involved extensively with the U.S. federal government

organizations such as The U.S. Air Force, The U.S. Defence Department, and NASA. It has
received over $100 billion of funds from governmental contracts and rewards to provide
cutting-edge aeronautics technology and designs to the U.S. and its allies countries. Lockheed
Martin has four core businesses: Aeronautics, Missiles, Rotary, and Space, and the
compounded annual growth rate for each business segment is 9.85%, 11.74%, 3.63%, and
4.78%. The company is positioned well because of high switching costs for its buyers, product
complexity, and contract structured deals, reducing the risk of losing promised funds. Another
advantage Lockheed Martin possesses is its sustainable growth within the industry. There are
significant growth opportunities tied to the export and maintenance of its products, especially
with its primary contractor F35 procurement project, which is worth over USD 360 billion over
its lifespan of 55 years. Lockheed Martin has also secured a USD 60 billion contract to provide
equipment for the Canadian Surface Combatant, the Royal Navy, with a partnership of 30+
years at first delivery in 2030.
Lockheed Martin’s stock price on February 9th, 2021, closed at $342.34 on NYSE.
According to the stock pitch analysis, we estimated a five-year discount rate of 0.70x using the
Gordon Growth Method and ended up with a projected price of $441.20. Lockheed's current
stock price is $353.61, closed on March 23th, 2021; which Lockheed appears to be in an uphill
situation and demonstrates more substantial stockholder buying power and market confidence
to the company. With an $11.27 per share gain of the stock, we consider the stock as a success
regarding our projection. Since Lockheed Martin’s stock price plunged to $321.82 on January

13
29th, 2021, the lowest price of the company’s stock in 2021, it has increased by 9.88% until
March 23th, and the company is expected to recover more from the coronavirus-hit because
there are 47 hedge funds hold LMT positions at the end of the third quarter, and Lockheed
Martin is also expected to progress its technology and hedge fund supports.

Lululemon
Pitch Prepared by Andy Lee, Ebrahim Shaikh, Lovedeep Kaur

From the beginning of February to mid-March, Lululemon’s’ stock price has fallen
more than 5% due to the high level of uncertainty in financial markets.
As we identified that the majority of Lululemon’s’ revenue comes from the US (71%), thus
they were significantly impacted by the uncertainty which was driven by concerns of rising
inflation rates leading to a large sell off and reallocation of capital to more secure investments
such as the U.S treasury bill. Additionally, as the impacts of the December stimulus package,
which resulted in US retail sales increasing 5%, settled down - retail sales declined 3% in
February contributing to a loss of sales and confidence in the stock. However, we still believe
that Lululemon is a long-term hold because the company’s decision to restart shares
repurchases, ongoing product innovation, and expansion into new markets beyond its core yoga
and training categories will drive growth as stated in our investment thesis. The recent increase
in the stock price can also be seen in anticipation of the $1.7 trillion stimulus package resulting
in more money in the economy, an increase in vaccination rates supporting economic growth
prospects, and declining concerns of increasing inflation rates and interest rates in the near
future.
In conclusion, there has not been any company-specific news or activity that has driven
the stock price down since our pitch. Rather, the overall market took a dip in early February
and LULU followed suit. Regardless of the short-term activity of this stock, we still see strong
potential with LULU and consider a long-term hold.

AMD
Pitch Prepared by Matthew Ostermann, Connor Carlos, Asnee Emmanuel, Harshul Narang

In our February 8th Stock Pitch, we discussed why we believed there was significant
upside potential for AMD shares. This belief stemmed from projected growth in gaming
console markets (for which AMD is a leading manufacturer of processing and graphics chips)
as well as offerings of new (higher gross margin) chipsets, growth in the datacentre market
(which AMD has been expanding into, and their long history of beating analyst expectations,
increasing their share of the market, and building strong relationships with console and PC
manufacturers. We have stated a target price of $112.43 and maintain that the stock has a strong
upside potential. At the time of the initial valuation, AMD was trading at $87.84, and it is
currently trading at $81.08. Although the stock has underperformed recently (-7.72% Holding
Period Return), this can be attributed to volatility in the market as a whole and the stock has in
fact recovered from its 2021 low of $73.96 in early March. We are not overly concerned about

14
the recent dip in price, as we had expected it to take 24 months or longer for AMD to reach its
target price, and still believe this will occur.

Risk Management
Nancy Dam, VP of Investments

YTC has established a Risk Management Framework which has four key aspects:

1) Risk governance:
YTC has governing structures and processes to effectively manage risk. These include
executives board and senior advisor committees where risks are formally reviewed and
discussed.

2) Risk Strategy
The account was rebalanced biweekly. Most stocks were updated after every stock pitch
however some positions were closed earlier due to the fact that some of the stocks had either
been significantly overvalued or undervalued to the point where their valuations could no
longer justify their fundamentals. In order to aid in the hedging process that is done through
the mean variance portfolio optimization uncorrelated bond and commodity indexes were
added to the portfolio.

3) Identification and Assessment

By applying methodologies, tools and processes as described above, we are able to identify and
assess inherent and emerging risks in two main categories:
a. Investment risk: identified by our investment team and examined by Portfolio
Manager.
b. Strategic risk: May arise due to ineffective development and implementation of
investment strategies. The executive board and senior advisor committees are to
review decisions made by our PM when necessary, especially during market
turbulence as a result of COVID-19.

4) Monitoring:
Perspectives across all levels in YTC are integrated to obtain a holistic understanding and
prioritization of risks, to determine risk responses, and to monitor and report on risk
management activities.

15
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