I :! I A SOIIII W J I , I , I ~ I . I I I * ~ I .

~ , I I I \ II ,J ~ I , I I ( , II;\,s
~ 11, I L I I I , I . I I I ~ I I ('III-I,~:,~ I ' ; I I , ~ I I oI'F)O
~ bI.1. LVII;I,I, is
1,111, I il,l,111[1, 1 1 1 I(11owi1,l I, I I O I I I . ~ ' !
I ! ! ' I ' I I I , I J I . I . ~ ~ wi~ltl
, I L I I ~ . I I ~ I I ( ,;\,I. I ~ I I I . ~ ( ! I I. l i l l , O~.lil~(',y, is ~ . i ~ . l ,~~LcI l.:i MW.
S(:ol,1;~11(1,
WII;LI,is I , I I ( % 1 : ( 1 1 1 i ~ i i 1 ( ~ 1 1r;l.I,i~~gl, ill l i o ~ ~ s ~ ~ ~ ~ o w ~ ~ r ' !

CHAPTER. 2
1 : ; I I I I I I I I I(~:.I .M: ,. , / l!)71] ''13ri~rgyand Power" , in T h e Con.~.ersionof Energy (Scientific
/ 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 111 ; I I I , I I S A ) , ('11;11)t,(>r
5. ENERGY RESOURCES AND ENERGY U S E
:' 1 11 !I 1 . I t ( '. 1!)7X] lSn.c.rq?/,l l e s o ~ ~ r c eand
s Policy (Addison Wesley Publishing Co., Inc.,
I ):.;A), ( ! I I ; I I ) I , I Y :i.
:I I';III I , li. W . 11!~72]Clns.sicu1 and Modern Physics, Vol. 2 (Xerox College Publishing,
I A ~ Y I I I I ~ , ~ ~ I M;I,ss.,
III, [ I S A ) , Cllapter 14.
1 \ I t V I ~ I ~ # .,II. I .( 1 . / \!)Hill Rrcvrgy Around the World (Pergamon Press, Oxford, England),
I.
~ ' l l l l ~ l l l ~ l
2.1. Energy Input to the Earth
!a ';c.rlt:., I " W. 11!)17] Prirrri~~lc.~
of Ph.ysics I (Addison Wesley Press, Inc., IJSA).
o :., liniglil,, W . I)., and Ruderman, M. A. [I9651 Berkeley Ph,ysical Course,
1 \ 1 1 l ~ 4 ,( Il'ij';~lre2.1 shows the accepted energy flow patter11 for t h e C ; L L . I ~111.
I All ol' 1,111~

\ ' # ) I I ( \I(.(:~.;~w-llill
Ilook Go., Inc., USA). 1111lllericalvalues in this are obtained from scientifically nleasllrcrtl t l r r l , l r 11111. IrlcT
:.r~l)jcc.tt o measurement error a n d t o slight intrinsic variatious of V I L ~ I I ~ ! .

2 . I .I. Solar radiation rate and annual variation

SI,I;II.radiation flows continuously through the earth's at,rnospl~c:rc:OIIIA I ilfsS I I ~ I ' I I ~ I ~ ~ * .
I<::II.II square metre of surface area a t the atmospheric b o ~ ~ n d i ~ i~~t~orc:c:l)l,s
ry 11. 1101.111111

( i . c - . I)erpendicular) radiation, when facing the sun, of allrlost, ( : ~ I I S ~ ,VJI IL I ' .~'1'111-
. ~ III I ~
I 1 1 . 1 l i t , of the earth around the sun is not precisely circular but, is sligll(,lyc:llil)l.ic.rl.l. l'i 11,
I Ilis I.c:ason t h e sun--earthdistance is 91.4 million niilcs in J ~ L I I I Ii~ l lL I!)1.5
~ (~ Y 111i1iio11
111ilosin July. This small variation accounts for an a1111ualdiff(:rc:ncc? ol' :\'%I I,o I'%I 111
1 \ I ( . solar radiation rate a t t h e edge of the atrriospherc. For (:i~l('\l\illio\~ I)III.I)OH(~H it.
I:; r.c,rlvenient t o assume a constant radiat,ion rate a ~ i t this i is ~ ~ r ~ \ ) o ( l ii l(l : (1,11('
l "HII~II.~
I . I I I I S ~ , ~ L ~ Lwhich
~" has a present value 1377 W/m2.
II' the earth is assumed to be perfectly sp11aric:al i t hiis a tlin11ic:l.ric. ~ ) l t ~ ~ r c u
~ l l c ~ l . ( r.! is t h e Inean earth radius. T h e solar ratlintiorl intc:rt:c:ot,c:tl is Illrc:~.c~k,~.c~ 11.1. J L

I : I \ ( > 1377 x ? watts, if ri~tlius7. is ill illc:t,rc:s. A fiji~irc:for the: I ~ I ( : ~ L I I(:1~1.1,11 I . I ~ ( ~ ~ I In IH

I, ~r~illion mctrcs, result,irlg in
 1 T T
'l'i(I:ll CIICI.~,~

7r

SOI:II1-:1(lii11io11 Short wavc- I .ongwilvc-

I II A 10"wntts lcngth radiation lcngth radiation ( I .21 x lo6 W)
A
Atmospheric boundary l{hl(:rgy flows o~~i,w:~r(llysroiii t,l~c:i11Lcrior ol' 1,h:ci~rL11t.o its SII~I'I\,I,I\ t ~ , i ,I I , I I 1 . ~ 1 , i
rate 0.063 W / I ~ Ibeiiig
111;~t,ec1 ~ , a r(:s111t,:~111,
of l,l~(:r~rii~l, ;LII(I I I I I ( , ~ I ! I L I . S O I I I ~ I , I ~ N ,
(*Ii(;~iiic;~,l
.
AL
Ilircct rcllcction 'Tides, tidal currents
L 4 I'ig. 2.1. If the earth is assu~ricdt o I>(: a, pcr.f(:c:t sl)llcrc:, t l ~ oo ~ ~ l . w ;Ilow ~ r ~ l( 1 1 I I O W I ~ I
5.2 x I ()'%watts 3 x 1012watts is t,l~en0.063 x 4.rrr2 watts, where r is th(: e;~rt,ll'sratli~lsill nict,rc!s. 'I'III! I.oI.rrl 111-11.1.
I .2 I x lo1-'watts Ilow rate is about 3.2 x 10'" from rocks plus 3 x 10" W (Ill(: 1,o c.o~~vcac.l.icI~~
AL
I)y hot springs and volcanoes. I t is thus scc:ll t h a t ahollt (3!)(%1 of' t,111:I , I I ~ . W I I . I I ~
71 Conduction in rocks
I)ircct conversion to heat
A
Y Ilowirlg terrestrial energy is due to conduction in rucks. This is tlisc~~ssc!~l [III.I,III~I 111
. 3.2 x loi3watts ( !li;q)ter 7.
8. I x 10I6watts
1r

Winds, waves, convection and currents 2.1.3. Tidal (gravitational) input energy
AL
3 . 7 10'~watts
~
.I :ri~vitationalenergy derived frorn the locations and rnotions of t,licb S I I I I(:I~I.I,II, 11.110
llvaporation, precipitation Storage in 111oorlis responsible for the ocean tides and currents. T h e IISC ol' I.llis ( ! I I I ~ I . ~ , I, N~
~-
Convection in volcanoes I lisc.llssed in Chapter 9. Tidal energy is estiinated to represent an (:III:I.K,~ illl111t. II,~.
4 x 1 0l6watts
and hot springs
1 I I I ( ~ r.i~te3 x 1012 W , or about one-tenth of the encrgy flow rat,(: o111.wr1.rtl li.11111 I.III+
7I 7

----. Decay 3 x 10" watts ~.:rl.l.li's interior.

I'hotosynthcsis (lornparison of the three sources of input energy in Fig. 2.1 sl~owst,11;1.1, 1.111. so111.1.
b AL
4 x 10" watts I I I ~ ) I I ~is, about 5000 times the s~illlof the other sources. I t is cl<:i~r 1,1111I. 1.111- 1!11,1.1.11
t 11 11,silot suffer from an energy shortage. Therc is natural enorgy iri ;LI)IIIIII;LIII.I~. 11111.
: , I . I . ~ O I Itechnical
S problems arise with regard to the distrih~~t,ion,
1 0 ~ i ~ t i oc~oll(~c.l.io~l
11,
L
F
,.( lllvc~rsiona n d storage of energy in its various forms. Even rriorc s(:rio~ls111.1, 1.1119

Terrestrii energy I I I I I 11i1.11 issues concerning the ownership and stewartlsllip of tllc roso1lrc:cs.

2.2. E n e r g y F l o w u p o n the E a r t h f r o m N a t u r a l S o u r c c s

: I I I ~ I I47% I ~ , of the incoming solar r;~tliatioll,i.c:. 8.1 x 10'" W , is i~,l)sorl)c~~l 1t.y 1.l111

,II.(.;I.IIS, li~ndmassand at,rrlosl)llc:rc. Tllis is c:oiivcrl,c:tl t1irc:ctly I,o 11(:;1.1,c~~lc:rxy 11~1, 1,1119

Fig. 2.1. Rate of energy flow diagram for the earth [I]. I I 1 1 1 1 ) i ( ~ ~s~irfacc it, teinpcrat,urc:.
' I ' ~ I ( , (!i~rtl~'s lly(lrologi(:i~l(*y(:l(: (.o~isisl,s 01' ov;~pori~l,iol~, l)r(~(~il)iOi~,i,i~ 111 I I , I I I ~~ ~ I I I * ~ ' I I , I , I ~

' I ' I I I ~ rll.{lit~~ii, i11l)lit energy is staggeringly large. During the year 2000 t h e total I 1 1 1 1 of[. o!. w ; L ~ , c ~ . AS wa.t(:r vi~l)orisc:s, it, i~l)sorl)s 1lo;~l s o ~ ~ ~ c ~ lr ~ ci -~l li ~ rc1.1~~I~sl ~
1,rillln.ryc:ilorgy c:o~ls~irnption in the world was 8752.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent I : I , : I I , 1 ; 01' : v i ~ o ; l , i o ~ i I i s l o I i I I I I I ~ S I I I0 1 1

(:!I. I I I ~ , ( ! ~ I I I of
s vilrio~lsenergy units this is , ~ ~ ~ ~ ( . i l ) i I IIIOSI, . i ~ l . ioI'I,llis o ~ i II(::LI,is I.(:I('~~.SIYI, 1,og(:l,I11~1. wiI,l~1,110 ~ ) o l , ~ , ~(3~~(:~.p,,y ~ l ~ i i ~01'. l it.)(
I I I I . I I ~ . ~ O I I i 1 , 1 ~ 1 1!,III* ki11(>1,i1.(-~i(~rg,y 01' if,sl ) r ( : - i ~ ~ ~ l 111ol,io11,
) t ~ ( , l , i1,s low I,(~III~)(~I~II,~,III~( ~ I I ~ I I , ~ ~

: ~ I ~ I I I I1,01.l,io11
- (11' I,llis l ~ , ~ ~ l ~ ~ o( Y l) IoI I~~ ) iI )~I I ~( ~ iI OL I~ ~ , .I ~l I I I ~ I , , : , ~is SI,I,I.(YI 1 1 1 l.iv(-l.s11,1111 I I I , I ( I ~ ~ I

, , I 1 1 1 I I I ; ~ S S I01'~ S i(,18, AIIOIII,?:\'x,( , I ,x. 101" W ) 01. 1,111, sol;^,^, I I I I ) I I I , I . I I , I I ~ I I , I , ~ ~isI I I , I , I I I , I * I I

1,111 I 111s l ~ , y ( l ~ , o l o ~( ~, i(~. ~I I: ~> ~. l
A s11111ll I ' l . l l . ( * I . i ~ ) l ~ ,I I . I I I I I I I 0.:!l1~4,( : \ . 7 - 1 0 ' " W ) ? 01' 1.l11' i l l l ) 1 1 1 . I I I . I I ~ I I . I . ~ I I I I~ l l , i v o t i
t I I I * I I I , I . I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I O : I I I ~ I I * I 1 1 . I ~ ~ I I I \ ~ I ~ I ~ ~ I .I ~I II II ~I .I ~: I~I . I I ~ I I ~ . I I I I I '~I I' l l i ; ~ I - I I I ~ bl*y
I I I I I I ~ I ~ I I I1 ~1 1I
I L I I ( > I ~ I I , I I I 01' wi11(1,W I I . V I ~II,IIII O(Y~II,II ( , I I I , I , ~ * I I I I, I I O ~ ~ I ~ WI III IS( .,I I 11.1~: ) i l l ~ l i s s i ~ r 1 1i1.s~ ~low
~~~1I 1 1 1 I I I I ~ I I : - : I I . I~~ l l . : i c * ~ l : ; c ~ c . i c ~ I , i ~ . : ~II.II(I I ~ I . I I I I ( I I I I I I ~ : ; , h'l11.11y 0 1 1.111' Itlay I ' V I ' I I ~ : ; 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I ' I I I I I I I , : I

I , ( - I I I I ~ I * I , I I , I , I I I X ~~ I ( - I I , I , I I I I ( * I , ( ) l'ri(.l,il) I I , (11 1.111sl ~ ~ . o l I 'I ~~S I ~ . I I I~~ I ~ ~ ~ II~I~I ~\ I ~; I lI I ~ I,IIIIWII

~ , I ~ , :i,s i , \ i ( s I I I ~ I I I s I , I ~ I I ~ . II { ~ * V I I ~ ~ I ( . I I I I :I ~i l r ~ ~ l ~ tI It I l
' I ' I I ( - ~ r l ~ o ~ ~ o s , y 01' ~ ~] l~. l~ ~i l~, is~J slI,II(: ~ , y of ~,II(: (:11(~rgy
i~ s~ ~~ ) I I ) ( . ( , S Sw l ~ o r ( ~ l SOIII(: of soI:~,r I I I 11.11.i11, wl~ic,l~ w11.s11. clo~llill,l.~~l, wcr1.1111rowc.1.( I I I I . ~ I II ~. I I ( > I H ~ "~ I , I I ( I l!~"'I . ~ , I I ~ . I '1'111% II,II~:
I . ~ I I I ~ J I I , ~ ( IisI I ( Y I , ~ ) ~ , I I I Xl),y
~ I ~ , I I ( : ~ ~ l ~ l o r o ~of ~ ll~) i, iy~l~lIC~LVCS.
~t, This is disc~lssedill dctail l ~ ~ t l ~ ~ s lI.{~c :.vio: l~~ .l l . i ~ )wi1.s ~ r i ~ ~ i l . i ; ~ . l I'II(,IIIYI
l,y I)y (.oii.I ; I . I I ( ~ I I ~ W( . ~ I I ~ . ~ I I I I I1.0* S 1 1 1 - 1'111*11t~11
111 ( : I I I I , \ I ~ , ( ~ I .I:\. SoIi~rc:\lc:rgy c:e)~~rl)iirc>s wit11 c:;~rl)ondioxicie (COz) and water ( H 2 0 ) 1 o i l oil I I I I ~ I I ;I I S '~'II(:s(: 1'11(:1s,l,og(~l,11(~r w i I , l ~I I I I ( - ~ (I I~. I :I (I~ ,III .I I ~ ~ ~ I I II I ~I II WI ~
1.0 I ~ I X I ( I I I ( , ( %( . l l ( ' ~ ~ ~ i ( (' ;:~il. ~ r t ) ~ l ~ y d plus r a t ( toxygen.
~ The stored energy in the leaves Ilyc ll.o, ; I . I . c ~01'1.(%11 (~;1.11(:(1 l)rill~;l.~.,y J'II(~IS. 'l'I~(:yi1.1~: 11s11t~l1.y (.OIIV(~I.I.(VI I,o oI,l101~ l'( I I I I I N I 11
1 1 1 1 l l I ) ~ I I . I I is ~ . S(lissil)i~t,c:cl when the vegetation is consumed or decays, Fig. 2.1. Only I * I I ( ~ I(:r(,i1,1, . J ; , ~ .i~lrui~(ls lli~vcI)(:(:~I lllil,(I(: i111,o l,l~(:s(: i ~ ~ i l , i i ~ lv;~,sl,
l , y sl,o~x~s OI'(~OIII~I~III~III~
1,111. H I I I ~ I .~rro~)ort,ioll
~~ 4 x 1013 W or 0.0023% of the solar input power is involved 1 . 1 I I ' I . J ~st) 1,l1i~1; 1,11(!~iLro IIOW sig1lifi(*i~111,l,y ((1(:1)1(*1,(:(1. (:iv(:11l.l1:11t , l ~ ( !worh I I 1 1 - 1 1 111 I I I I 11 1 1
I I I 1111o1.os.y11l,l1c:sis. Nrivert,l~eless,the annual energy of photosynthesis is of the same I ' I I I ' I . ~ : , ~ st,ill (:oIlt,illli(:sto ris(:, it, is il~l~)o~.l,;l~ll, 1,o ~I,SS(:SS I,IIO r ( : ~ ~ ~ i l . iI~ . I , lS (i>~I . V~I *j: :I I , I I ( . I ~ I I
OI.(IISI, 01' ~ ~ ~ i l g l l i t ;(lo2' ~ ~ d (J: ) as the present world commercial energy consumption. I 11' l.Ii(, hssil fuc?ls. I'rese~~t rates of hlcl c o i l s u ~ ~ l p l ,<:iLIL i o ~I)(% ~ 11ltriw1irc:tl; 1 . ( . ( . 1 1 1 . 1 1 ( . 1 ~ 1 ~1 1 1 1 1
I t I S I . I I ( L ~rroc:c:ssof pla~itdecay that is largely the source of the fossil fuel deposits I I I ~ , I I I X : (l(:i~ii~il(i 11:~sto he (:sti~~i;~tc:(l ; ~ l i ( Iis l,ll(:r(!for(: s~lI),j(:(,l, 1,o ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ ( : r l , l ~ , i ~I,III.I 11'111 ~l,i(~
1 I ,:?I. I I ~lc,(s~.l,i~illt.y arises wit,h regard to the possible tliscovc:ry of11c:w i l ~ i ( lll.(.(.(~ssil)!~~ HI Illl.c.13rl

01 fossil f1ic:ls. I t is certain that the passage of t.i~li(!r(:(I~i(:(:s 11ot,l11.\1(- I I I I I I I ~ M *1~1 1

I 1111 lisc.ovc:red fuel deposits and the reservos i ~ ~ i ~ i l ; ~ I ) l ( : .
2 . . I",r~t!rgyOutflow from the Earth 14:sl,iln;~tes of the rates of use and thc: years of fossil-fuc:l rc:sc:rvcss I . I , I II II iII I~J ~., 11 ~I I '
I ~ , I V O I I i l l Figs. 2.2, 2.3 [3]. Some sources of iiifor1n;~tion(luot,(:1,11(:rc:scSl.v~~~ (111111. 1 1 1
A ~ ~ I ~:iO'
IXI II of
. t,lie incoming solar radiation is immediately reflected back into space ( 1 . 1 111s o f (.he reserve/production (RIP) ratio. If tllc It/P ri~(.io i~ic-rc:rl.sc~s, Illis ~ I I I ~ , I I I ~ I
111 I I Ishort-wave radiation, at a rate of 5.2 x 1016 W. But the earth has
1.111. I ~ ) I . of
I I I : I I . 1.llo new discoveries (or rcviscd rcscrve estiniat,c:s) lli~vc:oxc:c:c~l(~tl 1.11(- ( < I I I ~ I ~ J
III I . ~ I criergy
I I I ~ I . ~ I I ~ . ~ ill1 I balance in order to avoid cumulative rises or falls of overall I : ,1ls111111)tion within the particular time periotl. F'iglir(! 2.2 iil(:I~~(l(~s ~ I I ~ ~ I ~ I I I I I , ~ , I I I
~ . ( ~ I I I ~ I ~ I ~ ; I . I . I I I 14)r
. ( : . eilergy balance the total input energy must equal the sum of the
I I ~ I I ~ Y ~ ~ I I ~ I ~ ~ oil supplies, which is the most critical frorll 1,11(: vic:wl)oi~~l. t r l ' ~ ( , I I I H1 1 1
1 . 1 I I I I I ) I ) I I I * I I ~ clirc:c:tly
, re-radiated plus the sum of the coinponents stored or converted ~l~;c~~.vt:s. Although the R / P ratio for oil has bccii st,c:i~tlilygrowi~~); si11c.c.1.11(- 111111
l , l I 1 ~ l ~ l l Iirr111s.
l ~ l ~
I !~'ios,(,llr: critical feature is that the stock of 11at11ri~l c:r~~tl(:oil rc:sc:rvchsI . ( ~ I I ~ I ~
18'01. ox;r.1111)1(:,the 47% (8.1 x 1016 W ) of the incident radiation converted to I : , 111slover 40 years for the world. Most of the accossi\)l(: oil rctsc3~'vcss I.(*IIIII,III 111
I(rw j:~.i~.~l(: Il(:i~t,Fig. 2.1, is then re-radiated as long-wavelength radiation. Also ( 1 1 1 5 Mi(ltlle East, which continues to he the niaii~provi(lcr 01' oil 1'01. I.II(. ~.c~sl. 01' 1 1 1 1 ~
1 1 , ~ . l ~ . ( l i i r l , c s ( is
l lriost of the input energy from the other solar input routes plus the \\,I 11.11 I. 'l'l~isis discussed in detail in Chaptcr 5 .
1 i t l i ~ l r1.11t1 I.c:rrc:st,rial input components. I t can be seen in Fig. 2.1 that the input
N11111c:rical information for the remaining world stjock of i1;~1,11ri~I ~ I I is S SIII~WII III
: ; O ~ I~.:i(lii~.t.io~l
IY is eqnal t o the sum of the two outgoing radiation components - the I,'lrl,. ?.:I. As in the case of oil, the R / P valuc is slowly iii(:r(:;~si~ig I)II(, I , ~ I ( - I . ( L I I I ~ ~ ~ I I ~ I I
11.1 I I ( ) I I I I ( . 01. (1110rgy stored being of a much lower order of magnitude. \,,I , ~ . l t l rc:sc:rve stock is estimated a t bctwcc~lGO slid 70 yc:i~rs.11, wol~ltlI ) ( , I i ) o l i ~ I1'0~

I ~ . ; : ; I I I I I ( : t.11i1.t~the R I P values for oil a i d for gas will c:ollt.i1~11(:

L o rise- so r1.s 1,o r~.lwr~,y:
~ I I or three human generations of rcscrvcs.
1 1 I ~ I , ~ I I ~ , ; I .t,wo
2.4. 1C11t:rgyStored Within the Fossil Fuels
' I ' I I o si1,ll;~tionwith regard t,o coal reserves is Icss s c r i o ~ ~I)~!('~LIIs(-
s I . I I ( ~ ( - : i l . i l ~ ~ i ~ . lI . ( ' ~
, . I o c . l i will ont,last, t)ot,h t,k~c?oil wnd t,lic? gas hy ;~,ll~iost, 'LOO yc!ir.rs. M O I . I ~ I II.111, VI~I
'1'111- 0111.i:l.l of vc:gctation under successive layers of sedimentary sands and rocks
~ l ~ : ~ l . ~ . i lof) ~t,he ~ l , (;oi~l
i o ~ ircwrv(:s is g(!ogr~~l)l~i(!iilly v(:ry ~ i ( I ( > ~ l ) t ' ( ~ i \ ,$ (I lI ,( , ~ I I L I I I I I , i l ,
IIJI:; I ~ I * ( , I I t;oiiig on for an estimated 600 million years. Each major climatic or
I I I ~ I ~ I1,o , ~ r(*l~liii~i i~v:~ili~hlc: id1 ov(:r t,ll(! wol'ld, iLS ( ~ ~ s ( : I I isl ls ((!Ilii,l~I,('l' ~(~ 11.
I:OI )lol:ic.i~.l (:l~il.~ig:.~ causes further changes in the earth's crust. Physical compressions
I " ~ ~ I I I . ( : 2.3 S I I I ~ ~ ~ I I : L ~ ~1,hc S ( I Sy(:i~r2000 worI(1 fossil f11(4 rc5s(~rv(: siI.~~i~,l,io~l, ( l i \ ~ i ~ l ~ * l l
11.1111 ~ . l ~ ( - ~ ~ ~ d~~co~riposition
i(:il.l have, during the course of time, resulted in deposits
I W ( T I I l , l ~ r ( g! ~r o ~ ~ p i ~ iTIIC g s . OECD ~ J X ) I I I ) (S(X: 'P;LI)IC2. I ), wl~i(,l~ ~ I I ( . I I I ( I ( - S I , I I ( , 11 I\
( 1 1 I . I I ( ~ so-c:il.llotl fossil fuels - coal, oil-shale, petroleum and natural gas. These
: I , I - ; I . ~ , l3ril,i~il1) ;LII(I I,ll(:IJSAl is wfbll 011' Ibr ( ~ ) i i , l 111ie,i111y , ( I I I ( ! l,o vi~,sl, ( I I ~ I I O S ~ I , 1~1 1 1,111,
( , I I I I S ( . ~sit.c!s ~ . I I ~of, (extremely : concentrated, stored solar energy. The time-scale of
1 ISA. 11'01. lrol,l~oil ;1,11(l I I ; ~ I , I I I . ~ L gi~s, I IIOW(:V(~I~, l,lr(r I O I I ~ - ~ , ( ~ ~ Isil,11;1,I,io11
II 1'111, ( )I1;( !I 1 1 1 1
I ' l l 1 5 li~yir~g tlowli of t,he fossil fuel deposits is such that, in terms of the human
I I I I . ~ I . I { . l j ~ . i l , i ~ ,isi l ~( : x ( ~ ( : ~ ) I , ~ ~ I I ; I , Ii l l i,li(:g1~r111r i l l l ~ i ~ , v i ~; Ir, IyI , oil II.II(I I I ; I , ~ , I I I , I I , ~F!II,S I I I I , ~ I I Y I
I ~ l ' ~ ~ s lI,l~c:y r r ~ .(:;LII ~ ~ , I)(+considered non-rcnewablc. Once thny are extrac:t,ed and used
S Y Y I I I I I I I I ~ , Wl~ii,l, will I \ I I , I ) ~ ~ ( ~ I l,o I l,l1(! lj~.il,isl~ (V~OIIOIII,W ~ I I I ~ I I ( I I O I , il') 1,111- oil I . I I I I SI I I I I ' )
1,1119.y rl.l.cs g o ~ ~ I'orc>vor.
o
'1'111, (111t,11. 01' I~li\:s.2 . 2 , 2.:l IIII.H I . \ I ( I I I I O S J I ) ~ I ) I ' O I I I I I I i l ~ ~ l ) l i ~ . i ~ I Will i ( r ~ l1111. s. IIIIII,I~
'1'111% 1 1 1 i l . i l l ( . I I I I I I ~ ( , 01' IIIIIIIII.II li(i~st.~yI(~
~ L I I ( (.o11(111('1,
I i l l W(!SI~(I~II ( * o ~ ~ ~ ~OV(,I. l . r i(.11('
(~s
I I . : ; I ~ I - V ::l.cr(.lts
I~ 0 1 ' 1 r i l 11.1111 ,~,JI.s i 1 1 I , I I I L M i 1 l ( l 1 1I~:II.s~.
~ - 1 1 1 ' I I V I I ~ I I I I ~ 1I ' 1I 1~1 ~ I I I I I ' I I I I I I I ~
I . I , I I ~ . ~ I I I I I 1.0
I ~ I I , S I , :\()(I ,y(s~~,rs IIII,S I ) I Y , I I Lo (.OIIV(-I.I, I'I.OIII I I , ~ ~ ~ ( ~ I I \ I , IsI oI ~ ( ~-lI,II,IIII
( -(i ~ )i ~
~~I Is, ~
~ I(~~~ IIII ~ I I I ~ ( ~ S
I t 1 I I I ( * I.I&SI, 01' 1,111. W I I I , I I I ' ~ Will ~ , I I I L I . I * 1 1 1 , I ' I I ~ , I I I . I $ I I I I I , . ~ I I I I I I : I I I I I ~ I I I I I I I I ~1 1~1 ' ~ . I I I , W I I I I I I
 t 11 );it11i1.11
io11 1'111 J ' : C . ~ I I I ~( "II I~ II ~~] I~* ~ : I L ~ ( I iIiI1 1 1 1 I ) ( l b , ~ - l ~ ~ (0EC:I)): l ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ (17~ ~ 11<.1,.(.1lt.
t
, . I 1114.1,1'1.1wo~lxl ~ w ~ l ~ ~ ~ l i :t \l~~t -t i, l ~. ~ ~ i) ~: l\ ~I I.:~~.! I ~ :II~.I , ~ ~ : I I I I I I(. ' ; L I I ; L ~I)t.tll;~rk.
~L. I.'i~llit~~<l.
I I . ) I I , ~ I : ~ . I I I I . L (I :II\I. Y . I I ,I ,~ I ' I ~ ~ I I I I IIL.I;LII~I, . I\..11v, . J A ~ I ~ L ~ I [; , I I X C I ~ I ~ I ~ I M(1xico.
I~~. rht:
i l q I I I v I I . ~ I ~ ~ I ' . , N<.w ; I t . i t l i i ~ ~ < l No~tviiy,
, I ' I I ~ I I I } ; H I , S l ~ i i i ~S~~ ,r > r l < *S\liiI~i~rlari(l.
n, '1'11rkcy, t h o
\ ' U I I ~, I I ~ I I I ~ : ( I ~ ) I I :LIIII I. 1111. ll1111(.rl!;I:L\I*:;.
.... -- . . . . . . . . . - ........-- .-. "-.-

N O ~O I Il ~ : < : l >Abia [r~:{IJI.I~.I,III. gd tlic 199.1 wc~rl(tpop~tlatiori): . ~ ~ ~ I I ? L J B I ~; ~s~I~: ~~~Ii ~

; u~- i i ' s h ,
1111111.111 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , i , ( ' . L I I I ~ N I ~ ~ (I I
~< L ~ L I I I ~ J I I I :(:hillil,
! I ( > ~ L )Fiji,, fintlc!~l'olyncsia, kfong I < I ) I I Iriiiiil: ~,
I I B ~ I ~ .~l rIl .I ~ I,\ I I I I I ; L ! I : I , l , i ~ o s , hlalnysia. hl~ux111,Malriivcx, hfc~ogolia, hlyiinrr~nr (Hurlrl;~). I"oI. l . I 1 ( 81,11rposcof' c:iic:rgy ~ ) r o d ~ i c : t , i oi r~l ~ i(~o11~111111)t,io11,
tl ~ , I I ( L( . o I I I I ~ , I . ~(11'I ~I :. I;I ( ' W I I I 111
N1>11;il, Ng,w ( : i l I c ~ i l t ~ ~ ~ ~NIIII;,, ti, h ' w t ~ t ~I<i.)rc;i, F'i~kistit~l! ~ ' ~ L ~ I I : INcw (.;~ti~l(vi,
~,,IIIIII,
I.:III I)(: tlivid(:d i r ~ t , othc six g r o \ ~ p i i ~ gs sl i o w l ~ill [ J i g . 2 . 4 . M C I I I \ I ( , II ,Y I I I I I ~ , I I I ~ ! I 1 1 1
I ' I I I I I ~ ~ ~ ~ I I! \S~ I! I~ I. ~ , ; I ~SI<OJ~~, O ~ ,~Isl;~nds,
I O I I So111.hKorea. Sri I..anka, 'I'aiwan. T t ~ ~ i l a t i 'li,~~g;l. d,
\ , A I I I I , I I1 1 , \ ' I ~ ~, II; ~ I I I, !L I I < LVvstc~t~
~ San~o;i. I I I ( , vit.riotis groups are listcd in E~l)l(! 2.1 [4]. L)c:tails of' t , l l ( ~~ ~ ; l sI )I.( l , ) t l ~ ~ c . l I .I iI ~ 11 1 1 1 1
1 . 1 ~llslllllptiono f separate energy forrris, c:o\lnt,ry l)y c . o t l u t r y , ; ~ r c givc!~~ , ; I . I I -~li:;c.~~tcril~ll
(~
I 1 1 Ii~.l,(:r scctions of the book.
'I'II(: world situation, as at thc c r i t i of 2000, is s l i o w l i i l l Fig. 2.2. I ' : I I ~ ~ I ' J I (, '~I I I I I I I I I I I I )
1 11 ~ I I , i l l a l i r i o s t all its forms, c o n t i n t i e s to iric:rcnsc:. l"rou~1970 L o 2000 I ' I I I ~ 111 I I I I I I I \'
( , I I I ~ I . (:011surnption
K,~ increased frorn 4900 to 8752 11lillio11 ( . o i i ~ ~ 111' ( ~ sI l i l 1 - 1 111i \ * I I I ~ ~ I I
( III~,O(:), represents an increasc of 78.6% o v o t . t;llo origi11;r.l V ~ I . ~ I' I\ '~I 'I .( - I I111 > 1111
q.\,icl(s~lc:cthat this trend will reverse, a l t , h o ~ i g l it , h o rat,(: 01' i~lc:rc!i~.sc~ 11;l.s:;IIIWI.II(11 I W I I
, , I I I ( . IL!)!)G.
* If figures are taken for t,hc 1 1 - y c ; r r ~)c:rioclI!)OO 2 0 0 0 , I . I I ( - W I I I ' I I I I , I I I I
. . 1 1 1 1 1 l ~ l , iof o i 1primary energy increa.scd l)y ~ L I ;l.vc:rii.gc:I ol' ( 8 7 5 2 . i l 7XXT1.7)/ 1 I , W ~ I I I , ~ I
I.:jt:.t4.111I . : r ~ r o l ~ e11d: tlu: f o r n l r r S o v i e t U r ~ i o r l ( E E / F S U ) ( 7 [.~c.ri.t~rtt.
(IS 1.1~: 199.1 I,. 'iS.8 l n t o e / y e a r .
,\(,I1 8 1 ~~~,~>ltl.~1.1~>11):
I':;,Ierrl E l l r o p e : Alt,.uiiii. B~!~;;lri;r.(.~zorhRepul~lic.Itl~ngnry, I'olanil, Hol~lilnin,
: : l ~ t c ~ ~ k;LIIII
t ; ~ kar~tl(:~
, Y'~i~,~slavia.
12111.1ut.t. Sovic:t Union (FSIJ): 11ie F3;iltic. SLn1.e~c.~ll!lstonia, L ; ~ t v i a ,anrl l i i t . I ~ ~ i a n ~ i i ,

( '1.111 I 111 a11111 S o t r t t i America (7 pcrcenl of ~ t l c199.1 world p o p ~ ~ l a t i o ~ i h ) :r t t a r c t ~ i

I , ' I , , ~ I I ~ I I ~ ~ ! ~ AIII.IKII;L
, ki11<1l!arb~i(i;i, h t g ~ ! n t i r ~ a/irlltJa.
, I k ~ h a l l ~Ias ~ a r l ~ i s13ii1hi1dlos,
s 1.3[!1izc,
I l ~ ~ l ~ tI.l i~..~i l.~ tk$rtt l , is11 V i r ~ ; i rIslands,
~ C:;~y~nau Islarltls, Chile, Cololnbia, Costa Hil;::a: C:~lha,
I ) l ) t r ~ ~ il, ( . ; L S I Rcuarior, EI Salv;ldor, Faiklar~dIslands, I-'rench (;uiana,
~ ~ i Il ) O I ~ I ~ I I ~Itcf~llblic,

I ; I , . I I ; I , ~ ;(I;,r t a i I t ! l e ) ~ t ~C~ ;~L~I, ; L ~ ~ I I C

I ~; ~I ;I~~. ~ I HI i~~,i t i ~lfo~>ij~tr;m, .l;%n>ail;::a, h t a r t i ~ ~ i q ~ t ? ,
~ ~ O I I I S C N~ tI~Ii t; l~~ ~~ l, a s lAd~~~ t i l l ~Nicaragua, s, Pixnania R.ept~biic, Pariiguiiy, I'cru,
:;I.. I\~tt!;-Ncvis, St. I,ilci;~, St, Vir~c~~~~t/(~;r(~~i~uii~~es~ Sur~narn~:,'Trinidwi ic11<1'I'r>ha?,<),

111 . I ~ I ~ I I I . I O I I , 1 . 1 1 ~ . loI111wi11gc t ) ~ r ~ r n o ~11s~f1

l l y ctitln1.r.v prol~pirigsare ~ ~ ~ I I I . I :inI I tCi ~Ci~sbook
I'tt(.1111. Ili111 I ) c ! v c l o ~ ~ i n gC o u r ~ t ; r i c s : liong 1<o11g, lndoncsia! Mal;lgsia, I'liilipl)i~trs,
: ; I I I ~ ~ , ; IS~OMI I~~III~\I~, ,I ~ < !' l?' L i ~, i w i i ~and
~ , 'IYlaila~~il.
c : .. 7 (:r,c~r~t.rir*s:I l ~ ~ i l . c . < lS t ; ~ t e s , .Jirl~an, C.:i~rl~da,lir~ilctf K i n g d o ~ n , Fk.ani:c. C:errnn~~y.
.111,1 11,lly.
O l . ~ n ~ ~ i s ~ ~otf i cPc:trolc:r~rri
~rl E x p o r t i n g C o u r k t r i e s (0PF:U): Algeria, Cabon, hn-
~ I ~ ~ I I ( . :lr.111.
; I , \ , I I . ~ I , lil~w;lil.,
~, I.il~yi~,Nigtiria, Q;il.ar, S a u d ~ Amk)i;i, tho I.[nitrri Ar;ib
 r -----
Uuddnllrori Btu
.-- .
700 History

Sources. History: Energy Informatlor- Adrn~n~str:it~o~~

(F IA),
Off~ceof Energy Markets and End Use. Internatlon:~lS t , ~ i ~ ~ t ~ c ~ .
Database and Internat~onalEnergy Annu,jl 1999, D O t l t l A -
0219(99) (Wash~ngton,DC, January 2001) P r o j e d ~ o n s :TIA,
World Energy Project~onSystem (2001)

Fig. 2.5. Worlcl (x~(;rgy( : ~ I I S I I I I I ~ ) ~ , ~ ( 1!)70

III, 20%) Ir11.
 I\iI,v(' I ~ I Y ~ I II I I ; I , ( ~ ( :I,Iu~III,
V ~ I I , I O I1)11~(li(~t,i1111s
IS ~ I ' I I ~ , I I ~ ( * wo1.\(1(!II(,I.K,~ ( , ~ I I S I I I I I I ) ~ , ~ ~ I I .
' 1 ' 1 1 ( - lij:ll~.c~s
I lilli*~.
slij:lll,lg ;~.c.c.o~.t
l i ~ ~1.0g 1.110 ~ I , S S I I Iri~l,(:s
I ~ ( : ( o~T growtli Ijut id1 sur-
v(<y:; I I I ~ I ~ ( ~ ; I(.o11t~i1111(vl
~I,(~ i ~ ~ ( ~ ~ (Ij'ig~lrc
~ i ~ ~ 2.5,
s o . q~iotcclfrom reference [5], uses the
I ~ I I ( - I . , ~ , Y1 1 1 l i 0 (~~~il.(lrilliolls of Urit,isl~t,llcrrnal units (1 mtoe = 0.04 x 1015 BTU =
( 1 11.1 c 1 1 1 i r t 1r.i l l i o ~11' ~ 1'11). (:orivcrsion factors between fuel values are subject to slight
I I I ( , I )~~sist.ollc~ic~s t111c:to variations of fuel quality but the data of Fig. 2.5 agree with
1 1 1 ( ~V : I . ~ of' I I ~Icig. ~ S2.2.
I t c ~ c ~ ~ c,o~~suuq)tioil
l ~ t , figures and future projections for different primary fuels
:II.(, ,:iv,\l~ i l l Icig. 2.6 and Table 2.3 [3]. The primary fuel most used is oil, which
I:, I I I V Y I ( Y I i l l irll rcgions. It is clear that oil and natural gas account for about
ciII";i 01' I H . ( ~ S ( ' I I ~world , demand. This makes even more urgent the need t o address
1 1 1 1 . I . ( ~ I I I ; I ~ I I r(:scrves ~II~ situation indicated in Figs. 2.2 and 2.3. Country-by-country
I Iltl,;~ils oI' ~.('~~li~.illillg individual fossil-fuel stocks of coal, oil and natural gas are given
;I:; ; ~ l ) l ) l . o ~ ~ ' i ; r ttir.l,les .c~ in Chapters 4, 5 and 6, respectively.
1Vo1.ltlcbllc,rgyconsumption in different nations occurs in patterns and is not only
I I I I ( ' ( I I I;\,( I ) I ~t i ~lc(luitable.Rather than consider only the energy consumption figures,

1 1 i:; illsl,r,l~c~t,ivc t,o consider the energy consumption per capita (i.e. per person of
1 I \ ( * I N ) ~ ) I I ~ : I ~ , ~ Figure ~II). 2.7 shows the situation over the last 25 years with regard t o
I Illl'1.1 (5111. 1.cy;iolls of the world. The North Americans consume twice as much energy
I 11.1 O I ~ I . S O Ii1.s I t,llc Western Europeans, who, in turn, consume energy a t about twice

I I I I . : I V ( \ I . : I ~ , ( : v i ~ l ufor ~ the world.

' I ' I I ( ~ I I S ~oI' : otlergy is related directly to industrial productivity and t o the Gross

N:II i l , I I ; I , ~ I'rotl~ict,(GNP) of a country, which is a rough measure of affluence. Other

I : I ~ . ~ . o I . s , s11c.11 :LS the climate and the industry/agriculture ratio, are relevant but the

( : N I ' is ;I. 11sc:fi11 indicator of national prosperity. In per capita terms, the energy
( . I I I I S I I I I I ~ ) ~ , ~is ~ I shown
I versus GNP in Fig. 2.8. Some corresponding data, with
I . l ~ c * i l . s~~~r.c.c:s, arc: given in Table 2.4. Figure 2.8 demonstrates that the calculated
V I , c i ~ . c l i l l ; ~ . t , li)r
(~ t,lle USA lies near a straight line extrapolated through the origin and
I ! I ( - :I.vc8rir.gc: illtersection point. Above this diagonal line are represented the locations
I 11' ~ ~ ~ . o s l ) c ~ c:ountries
r . o i ~ s having high GNP/capita. To the left of the diagonal line are
~ : I . I 1 1 1 1 i ( : ( 1 1,11(: c.oiilltries of the European Econonlic Community (EEC) which achieve
;I 1 1 i ~ : l l 1)('1' c*iq)it,a. GNP with about one-half the per capita energy consumption of
1.1 1 1 * N(i ~ . t ,Il A111c:ric:ans. The former Soviet Union and its former Eastern European
:;:ll,(~llil,c.s c ~ x l ) c ~ ;~I~lot t l of per capita energy t o achieve relatively poor economic
I ) I * I . I ~ ~ I . I I I ; I . I I ( . K111Soririi~tion about GNP/capita is not available for most of the OPEC
( ~ i l~)~'o(l~lc.c'r c.o~illt,ric:s.
'1'110 i l l liirll~ir.t,io~i ill Fig. 2.8 should not be used t o invoke uninformed criticism
( 'I 1,11(> Nor.l.\l Aluc:r.ic.ir.r~s.Canada has lavish hydro sources which provide 12% of
11.:; I , I . ~ I I I ; I . I . , V ( ' I I O I I'ro111
. ~ ; ~ t;llis 1.('11(1wi~hl<? SoIIrcc. The USA, with 4.5% of the world
I I ( 11 ) I I 1:l.l ic 111, I I S ~ ~)~~c~-clllil.r.t.c:~.
( S o f ill1 t,ll(: worI(1's crlcrgy 1)11tis goncrously endowed
\\'II 11 ~ I ~ I I I I I I ~ : I( I. (I, i~l l. , I I ~ I . ~ . I I I . ; Ij::l,s
. ~ ; I . I I ( ~ oil. O I I ((.o111(1
' NorI,11A I I I ( \ ~ ~ C R I I S
1,11(:
~ I , I . ~ ; I I ( 1,~1i1.1,
:
: I I ( I -) I I I , I I ~ I I ~ : I I I I L ~ I , O \ V I I 1'1101. 11111. i l l . ( ' l,l~(uywis(\ 1,o I I I I I . I I i t , : I ( 1,111- ~ ) I . I ~ S I ~ I I Or:1.I8osof'
mwmptlon? In the event, the UBA gmenltd (Ln 2000) c
008t b the~ world awtage d u e by wing energy st 5,N
nhwl I

OmmMam ur mt aa *wmgyewpi& ~;r.~W~lOlt"m,

W , r w i t h M % d h ~ U ~ h ~ ~ W ~ ~ b r r a $ l
'k ,
 /
/

/
/
- .. . ----...
---. - . . ........,. ..... - -. .. ... ..,...
,. ,
X Norway /
Iknn!litrkx X ':lVdn 1

XUSA I
I
History Projections
X Singapore
,
&: ,
d
/
Electricity Consump
z 1
2
0

; ~ c r m a n yy. Swp Belgium

x ,'
'
France X NcLherlands /
2 1 X UK
,,
x~usuy14
llaly x X Ireland 1 X Canada
UAE
x-b

,
/
/
Energy Consumption
X
X '
: Greece x .Fabnd
New

X Saudi Arabia

f/ - - -I - - _ M ' :w
1 ,
~:cg~Tolmd-R--------------------------------------------------------
Hungary
#vcnezuela
,,,, liyylj~ ~ ; t l n y d ; l ~
I # ~ ~ l ~ b ~,di%$riil
lt-'il.~ c m d Soulh Alrica x ~ u s s i a n~ e d . World average
I'i,ll,li,llk X('IBI,UI Rumania
--b
I 2, 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Energy ConsurnptiodCapita (toelyear)

Fig. 2.8. GNPIcapita versus energy consumption/capita.

t . 1 ~ 1) I 1.11 I%(.(111oi11icperformance. All the recent signs indicate, however, that China,
Fig. 2.9. World energy, GDP and population trcrtds, 1!)702015 141
w l l i c . l ~11:l.si~ljulldantcoal supplies, is about to make a great surge forward.
Av;~.iI:i.I)l~: forecasts of the future indicate that the world population, energy con-
S I I I I I ~ ) ~ . ~ Oill~d
II Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will all continue to increase, Fig. 2.9 Table 2.5. U K primary energy consumption (rr~t.oes)[(;I
1.1 1. '1'111: GI.11' is uot the same as the GNP of Fig. 2.8 but is also an indicator of
111~111st.l~ii~l cl(:velopment and national prosperity. If the forecast of Fig. 2.9 proves to
Y C ~ Coal "' Oil "' Natural Nuclear Hydro
as") Energy ~lectrici!~?~~
1 (.oI.I.(Y~., t,lleli GDP/capita will rise faster than the growth of population. 1973 83.2
Most. ()I't,lle countries that have achieved high economic prosperity have done so 1 078 70.4 94 37.9 7.9
l ~ yI . I I ( - c-xt.ri~vagantuse of industrial energy, especially fossiI fuels. Fast-developing I 0x2 65.1 65.4 42.2 9.4
(.o11111.si(~s like Malaysia and Singapore are attempting t o do the same. The poor I ~.- 65.9
1111l 1 1111(1~:1.(l(:v(:Ioped countries of the world may never have this opportunity because 1 99()~--.~-~65.6 82.9
-___-. _ 47.2 17 ~.. ,-

I 003 . _ ..--53:3__ . 84 57.8 23.1

I . I I ( ~ I . ( T is 1101, t:~loughprimary fossil energy. Also, oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia, .. .-. ~.~-..
I 096 . . 44.8. ... .83.? .73.9
. _ 24.4 0.4
Ii I I w11.i1. ;I.II( l 1.1 I(! IJnited Arab Emirates (UAE) , which could fund energy development I 009 35.8 78.7 82.5
.
24.8 0.6
. - --
i l l I.III, 'I'l~ircl World, are reluctant to lend large sums of money on a long-term,
LOO0 37.7 77.6
.~. ._. .86.
_.- . ... ...I
: ; l ) t - ( ~ l ~ l l ~ . l1. i)vic~~ ~ i s tthc:y prefer safe ant1 short,-term investments in the USA and , Sl~i~rcof 16.7's 34.R1%, 38. 11%, 0 . 3 I '%I
I':III.OI)I>. N ~ ~ v ~ : ~ ~t.11(:1.(: . ~ I (is~ i~~ ~l ):l s~ s~ ,~ tr~ii(:wat)I(:
li~l~l, c:ricrgy for all m d for c:vc!r. The .'I100total . ..

wol.itl 1)sol)lt!111 is 11o1.; r l l (:II(:I.R,~S I I ~ I O II)I.OI)I(:III

~ , ~ 1)11t ;L I I I I I I I ; ~I .) (~! ~ I ; L V ~ I ) I I I OI.OI)I(!II~.
~
 1'11,. II;III!',(.,. 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 . 1 1 ~ 1111.1 I O I I : ~ I I I I I ~ I ~ I ~1 1I 1I I I I I . Ill\ ~ 1 1 1 1 . 1 , l!)'i:I; I I . ( - S I I I I I I I I ; I , I . ~ S I . Ii ~l l

1'.11)1t, :!.!, I)y 1.111. j V , 1 ; ~ 1 ~ 1 011

; I I I I ~i l l ~ ~ h l . t ; ~ l ~ . ~ l 11'1~:. :!.I!). ( ! ~ l i l , l (.o11~111lll)l,io11 11il.s,slowly
i I I . I . ~ ~ I I I ' (1 ' , I I I I , I ' 1 , 1 1 1 ' ( l ; ~ ~ . l , 1y!)To5 \ v \ I I [ ( ' 1 1 i l I ~ l l l ~ ; l,<il.S
~I (~oll~lllll~)t,ioll 1liLS slowly i11crcast:d.

\ I 1 8 ~ 1 i \ ) I > 1 II,:II\ I ~ ~ ; I 01'I I .t 111: ( ~ (li\,t.ly L970s, oil ( ~ o ~ l s ~ i ~ lciecli~~eci ~ ~ ~ t , i for o ~ labout 10
\ , . : I I . 1 1 1 1 1 II;I:; I I ~ W I(~v(~lI('(I out. 1,o i~110llt36%)of the total demand. Nuclear-generated
I ,It .II i ( . i t ,! I N I\V (2002) ;r.cc.ol~lit.s
.( for 11's of the total energy consumption.
:\ fi,;1.1I I I . ( : ~ I I : L ( 11as rc~cciitlyoccurred is that electricity is ilow imported from
I * ' I ; I I I ~ . I . ~lsill!: ~~trtl(:~.st>il cal~lcsheneat,h the English Channel. Like all generated
1m11.l.1 I ~ I I , I I . , Y I ( . is ;I. sc:c.ontlary fllcl: probably obtained from nuclear generation.

'1'111- ( ~ o l r l r ~ ~ l ) ~of~ t11a.tllral-flow ,io~r hydro power increases ordy slowly as wirid ell-
I , I ! ~ , \ ' : ; ~ . : I , ~ , ~ Ic,onlc, IIIs orl-stream. All of the available natural hydro sites have been
I ~ I o I I . ( - I I . V;LSI, sc.lic:~nessuch as t,he possible Severn Barrage hydro scheme (see
' I I ; I ~ I ~ . I ~ I! -) ) wo~iltll l l i ~ ka ~big col~trihutioilbut would be classed as man-made hydro
111 l\\'l'l

( 'I I ~ I I ~ I ; I , I of
.~S ~ I ~UK
t,lle figures for primary energy production, Table 2.6, with
I 111 ,:;I, I . ~ . , ~ co~lsuinption,Table 2.5, shows a number of interesting
11 1 1 I I I ' ~ I I I ;c:llc,rg'y
11..11 1111.:>.

' 1'11,. 1 1 , !\\. ,)I' 111i c:ilcrgy fro111source to end users is illustrated in Fig. 2.11. Most, 1'1 I I I I ; I ~I-LICI
~ I~~(crn~ctlialc
crlcrgy I : I I I ~ II..I.,.
A
I
11 I 11,. I I I I : I I . ? , 1'11(*1illput was converted to heat and thence to mrrhanical or/and
111
c
11 \ I 1 ; ' lly(lro r

I((r . I I (.II(,~.::,V.
I 11 I~.orla ~ l dstcel, once a [TK base industry and massive energy user,
1 1 . 1 I I I I 1 1 1, 1 ; I I'I.:L(.(,~c)~I
I 1.1 of its size 30 years ago. The UK industry sector is now
,II 1,) II(.I I I I ; I 1 1 0 1 1 1 , 11o111~st~ic sector while transport accounts for almost. one-quarter

11, (-0:lI 'I'hcrlnal cllcrgy

cncrgy
I l l 2 . UK primary energy pr~duct~iorl
(mtoes) [6]

I 1 ( , 1 011(8) / Natural I Nuclear / Hydro 1 Totalq

 ~ a q t opue ~arnod a t s e ~ I.IMO,,
~elu~avt 3 l l ~ a l a PUP >111>a13 1!0 seg
-Oa9 ld3N
. . .. , - - >
- b l p A ~ p o o ~l i a l ~ n a~p n n lelnrehl
. - lea,

P'O

uede(
b!eds
A~e6bn~
6~noqwaxnl
eaJoy
ha>~nl
Auea~a~)
vsn
un
 I Ill,, l ~ ~ ~ b , l ~ :,I, l l~: ; l ~
l ll l~l :,;lvlll,~,
l, 1 I1 1,111. l,,1;,,, : ? t l l l ~ l1 ,, l 111;1l ;1111l I:, I l l ~ ~ l l ~( 4l !ll:*l,l
~ ~ l \,,\I
t ~ 1011

1, 1111~\,1~~1 l\lll, 11, ; 1 \ : ; 0 l l ~ ; l I Ill, ~ l ~ ~ , 1~

l l l ~ ~ l ~ l l1;11<,:; 1 1 l 1.0;1l
llll~ 1 1 1 1 , 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 11 6 1 1 1 0111. t l l
~ ~ 1 1 1 ~ 1 ~

N1.w Zctdbnd r 11,. I-OIIIIII y':; II;I:;(~III~~II:,(.I-~~~:;.

Net exporter
' 1 ' 1 1 1 . I.(III~IIIII~I . ~ - ~ ) I . ~ - ~ I ~oI Ii l~ ~
. I II'I';IIII,~:;
I ~I , 2.:) ;III(I 2.f; ; ~ l s ox l ~ o wIII~.I.II.:;~
1111~.
II.:II I I I I , , .
Denmark
Net importer 111 I!)';:\ v i ~ l . l ~ ; ~ ;I.II
. l I ,I~l l < o i l W;IS v l . l!)SO 1.11,' ( . O I I I I ~ . Iw;I:;
i ~ ~ ~ l ) o l . l . (1i.y ,~ :;t.11':.11IlilII.III
111 ,111 : 1 1 1 ( 1 ;I, I I ( ~ ( , (~sJ)oI.I.(~I. IIY2000. I1i)l.( ~ s ; I I I I ~ )ill
~(~ :!OOO,
, ill IIII.(I(.IIII~I,:,,

Oil r o t o oil ~
(:~IISIIIII[)~,~~II
..- ~
I 77.(i
:\s.:)oo
Oil p~-o(l~~(:t,io~~ l2i.2

I 11,. ~*sc.ossof p r o d u c t i o n o v c r c : o l i s l l l r l ~ ) l , i o iw;l.s

~ (I)y i l ~ ~ l ) l i c . ; ~ . l . i co *r ~ ~ I
s l) ) o11.1

Ireland
Belgium
{ Belgium
Japan I tdetnerlands
Ireland I Polantl
Italy
Korea
!
I
Greece

Portugal I Denmark
Ioxembourg
I
I I I I I
Italy
zech ~ e ~ u b l ~ ;
1 .Port1
-. .-lnal
0 1 2 4 6 8 10
Mexico
Ratio - Energy production to primary energy consumption UK

I ;' I:! I{:L~.Iool'cnergy production t o primary energy consumption in O E C D countries, 1998 Germany
(!{I !;OIII ( (' Energy Agency.
IIII~(~I~II~L~.IOI~~~ lurkey
Korea ~~

Luxembourg
Hunaarv
., ,
Spaon I
Japan 1
A~~strla
.
Canada
New Zealand
Switzerland
Finland
t-rance
Norway
Swcdrn
I<~e1'111(1
I 1 I
0 70 10 fro H() I 0 0

Coal Nalural Crude Nuclear Wood Hydro- NGPL Geo-

Gar Oil Flrclric and electric thermal I-o',sil f~lcl,,<I*,111.r1 c.rll.1(~1. 01 I)rIrrI,IIy I ~II'.IIIII~,~II!~I
PIIWP~ Warle Power and Other
 ';:\
~ I I I I I ~ I I I , I ~ I ~ 1 ~ 1 1 : 1 t l 1 1 l l i o 1 1 11'1'11 (11I ~ I I I ' I ~1 1~ 1 ,1 t~l I ~ ~ O I I I I I ~ I .I I l \ ' l l l ~ ,11111~111
I ~ I I I I I ~ I I ~ ~ I I I I I

I ' I I I o l ( ' I I I I : ; I I I I I ~ I ~ , ~ O I II 1 1 l 1 1 l l c . 1 l !)'; I ~ I I ~ I I I I ~ I I ~ I I 'I II' I I , I ( ~ I I I I I I I I I ~I I~I ,I I I I I I ~ : : 1 1 1

I C I I I ~ I . J * ,I ~I I . I I I I I I ( , I , ~ I I I I 111 1,111. IISA 1'01. I!)!)!)i l l l $ ' I 3 I l is SIIOWII 111 I,II(> l ) i ~ , t . t , l ~ ; ~ll'ig.
r l , , 2.1:$,
'"i I I I I ~ I , I I I . I I I ~ ~ II $I ' l ' l l , wlli(.ll is I X I ~ I I I I ' S ( . I I ( % I!),I!)l i l ; ~ l l . t . .
1 1 1 11k1~11
( / O W11 l),y ~'ll('l'[!;,yS l ~ 1 l l ' I ' ~ ' l!~l.
S 'I'll(' h)SSil ~ ' l l t ' l(:Oil,l,
~ 11i~LllI'iLIg&S,Oil
iLll<l1liLtllral
1 1 1 1 . 1 1 1 ~ I ISA I,III! i~l~l~lsl,l.i;~.l SIY.I.OI. is I . I I ( ' I:I,I.~:I~S(. S I ' ( . ~ , O II .. I I I I S I I I I I I ~ I . , 0111:I,II : ; I - I , ~ I I I : ,
j::l.s I I I ~ I I I I . l i ( l l l i ( IS ( N lil'lr) i l . ( . ( . t ) l ~ ~ ~li)t.
I . ;ilirlost 8O'X) of (,he total. The corresponding
I I 1 1 1 1 I I I I I ( ~ 1.0 ( I I ~ I I I ; I . I I ( ~ I I I I I I . ( ~ I I I I I ~ I . ~ ~ ,
Iliij:. I). l(i. I I I ( I I I s I , I . ~ ~ I . II I I - I I I ; I I I ( / 1.1 I I I ~ , ~ I I I I ~ * 1: I; 1 1 1 1 .
\':I I I I I . i l l I1'ig.2. 1.1 01' 84. is sliglitly cliffcrerlt fro111 Fig. 2.13 because the ratio of
I I , I I I I ~ I I : I I , I ~ ~l),y I oil i1,11(l I I ; I . ~ , I I I , ; I , ~g;~,s, Fiy,. I ) , I7 l ! )l , ' I ' \ I ( ~ 1 1 ~ 1 %01' I , I ) : I , ~ , O I I I , I > 1 , 1 1 1 , I I ~ I I I ~ I I I ~ ~ ,
I11::::il I ' I I ~ S ~ S 1.0 I.()l,i~l priillary fuc:ls there excludes data incorporated for wood and
, A I I I I , ( , ~ , i~o~\t,i~l\~(n,s
> 1,o i l i ~ c ~ l i~,s ~ (loos
i ~ il, ~ ~ , ;~,lso ill ~ x ~ s i i l ~ i~\ , 1~1 t I~( ~\) IiI iI I ~I I (,> lI ( , I : I I : , I * I , ( I ! I : ~
\\~:l:;l,l~ ~ ) I I I S g ~ ~ ~ ~ l , l ~ ~ ~ r l l l i l l .
,4\11o111, I,l~r(:c:lil'l,J~s01' 1,11t:(:II(!I.C,~ ~ . ~ I I S I ~i l Il Il ,Il 1 (( 1 : i~~(l~lsl.l.i;~,l
I~ . II::I'I
S I ~ I . ~ . O I I:; I 101
Si~~c.c. I.l~t:l;i1,(: 1950s the energy consumption in the USA has exceeded the pro-
I I I : I I I I I ~ ' ; ~ , ~ ~ ~ , Irl'li(, II~~~ r (I :~~.l ~ i i i i i ( l (fio(!s
:r 1.0 ~ ~ ~ i l it .io~~~~ g s l,. r ~ i ( .;lI,.i[o: ~ I .~~,( . I I ~l i~: i .l ~ItI' ~Il lI' : i* ,
1l11c.l iclrl, I4g. 2.15, inainly driven by the demand for petroleum. In 1999 the US : I I I I I I; )~x~sl.ry. Wit.11iii i ~ i i i l ~ ~ ~ l ' i ~ . ( : l Iil.rj?;(: , ~ i r i i i(g~,o i ~ s ~ i ~01' i i o( IrIsI ( ~ I . ~; I, I~. ( , I . \ I ( ~ 11181.1 I 111'11111

. I I I I \ (.o;1.1 1)ro(I11cl,s, ~lie~iii(:;iI~ i ~ l ~;~Ili(:d

(l 1)ro(111(~i,s ;1,110 ~)ri~l~;l.r,y III(~I,II.I ~ ~ I I ~ I I : : ~ . I I I ~
1\1;1I III.;II gas is t1w 111ost (:ol~iiiioi~ly (:oi1~1111i(~tI oi~(~rg,y r(:so111.(.1~ i l l IIIII.IIIICII.I.I 111111):

I ' I I I . ~)~.(:(lollliuarit end-use activity is l)l.oc.c:ss Iio;~t.ii~g, I'ollowotl I),y I I I I I I . ~ I ~ I II ~11* I V I ~ : I

. I I I A I I.llcr11 fi~cilityheating, venti1;~tioli;t.ilcl air c.oiltlit,ioiiii~g (.ol~ll)i~~(vl.
. I I I S ~ , 11ncier 7% of all energy c o l ~ s ~ i i ~ill~ et,Ijc ( l USA is IIS(:(I1'01.I I O I I 1'11181 IIIII l~l~:itqli,

, , I , I . I I ;IS asphalt and roads, oil for roofiiig p r o d ~ ~ c:i11tl t s ~ O i ~ 1t) 1l 1 i I t l i 1 1 p ; I I . I I I ~ 1.1 I I I I I I I , I I 111
I I I ! : , liclliefied petroleurn gases for fced stoc:lts ant1 ~)c:t,roc.l~c-~~~it,;~~I 1)1:1111.s, LVIISI*!I 1 1 1 1

I I ; I I I i ; ~ ~ i ncosmetics, g, pharmaceuticals, inks, aiitl ;~.cllic:sivc!s;I.IIII s1.il I /::I.S Ii 11. 1 . 1 1 1 - I I I I I I I I

. I I I I I 1.11l)l)ctr manufacture.
........ Consumption Wllil(: variety and change in cllcrgy solii~c~c:s arc: 1.11(! ~ I ; I . ~ ~ I I I ; ~ .01'I ~ ~1( 1s1 1 % 1 1 1 1 I l l : ,
-Production 1 I I : I I s~sc.t,or and the residential ant1 coinl~ic:rci;~l sc:c:t,or, t.railsl)o~.~.;~.l,io~l's I.I.II:~.III.I' 1111
1 I I 111!111n has been nearly total sitic:e 1949 [ { I ] . r l ' l ~ ( l ( ~ l i o i ~ t i:~l)l)(~l,il,(* o ~ ~ s I'III I - I I I , I ll,y
I 1 1 1 , LISA is illustrated in tllc energy per c.:q)it,i~ 1):~s(:li;~.rt, ot lcik. 2. Is. A I I I I *I II. I I I I : ~
11
.I, 1~11t~rgy a t almost three tirr~est,hc rat,(: of I311rol)c:iuis.

Fig. 2.15. US energy production and consumption [9].

I
--- Natural Gas
12- Pelroleurn
Industrial
-- - - - -
- Residential and Commerc~al
......... ..... Electr~calSystem Losses
40 Transportation
---.

9 --
- Coal

-
m
3

(1 ,
I !J!lO
.
I!)fiO
.I
1!170
I
1!lHO
t
l!I!)O 7000
I
 1.6.4, -4 fist m m , $ # $ t 4 r, - 8

I
Production Aguree for the world's leading fossil he1 pmduwm are lbtd 155
for the year 2000. The USA produces more oil than any country other t h a h&#
Arabia and dominates the world energy market, both as a producer and a c o v L

Table 2.7. Fossil fuel production in 2000 (mtoes) [3].

* '6
I

Emirates
Algeria 67 80.4 - 147.4
Nigeria 103.9 9.9 - 113.8

. .
P
,
..
.::
. :. ., :', . . h. e l i
Use off ossil, : , , .
. . . . .
' , . ' ;' in last 300~eiq~s' ':
. .. . ,
b.

.
'

,I. . . ' .. . .. . . as.,opposed ,to.5,O M ) ye& :

1 *:;.. ;.,
~

'

. , ' .. ...;;- . ;: ~f .;civilization ..' .

. . 4, :. .., ; . .
k111:;l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 . ( )I1:( ' I I , ( I I I I I I I 1 1 1 0 1 1 . 1 1 1 I I I I ; I I , V l ~ l l l ' l ~ J ~~,LVI I ; I , I II L I I ~ I ~ , ) ~ ~ ~ ~ ; I~ I I II I ~ ~ ~ . ~ .
it-:; I . I I I I : , I I I I I I -

,'ll(' ll('1 :IS

l l l l ~ l l l ' ~ , l ' l ' , 5 l l f ' l ~ l l l ~ l ~ J ~ ., 5~~ ,1 1 1 \ ~ 1 1I l l1 4 ' l l ~ . 2. 12 1 ~ 1 .

'1'111. ( )I4:( : I ) ~ . ( I I I I I ~ . I . ~ I; I.IS. I . I;~.r.gc*ly ( I I ~ I ) I ~ I I ( ~ 1i)r I ~ I I I.l~ctir

~ ~ c:~~c:r~:y 1lc:c:tls oli fossil f'lic:ls,
:I.: : ; I I I I W I I i l l t . I ~ ( b . Fig. 12. 1:1 I!)). Of t.lic: ~>r.c:sc:~it
11;l.l. I , ~ I ; I . I . ~01' 29 OECD countries (2002)
1111ly I w o s11l)j)Iy1110r.c: 1,11i1~1150% of 1,hc:ir 1)rinii~ry energy consumption from non-fossil
:,I 1 1 I I . I . I ~ S . ' I ' I I ( ~ oil ~ ) t ' o c l ~ l c:olillt,ries
t~r of OPEC also are net exporters and would be
I I I ( , I I I I I I . I I i l l ~ . I I ( . c:xl)or.t.c~ category if Fig. 2.12 was extended as a whole world listing.
A I~isI,o~.ic.i~.l ~)c:rs~)cctivc of the fossil fuel era is demonstrated in the time scale
1 1 1 I a ' i ~ f , . 2. I!). 'I'll(: Illass use of fossil fuels began in Europe during the 18th century
( I 'i00:;). '1'llc:rc: was no inass fossil fuel use before the Industrial Revolution in
I ~ i!;llll I o r c:lsc:wI~ere. Once the fossil fuels have been largely depleted there can
I I I . ~ 111- I , I; ~ . ~ ~ o (fossil , l ~ o fuel r era. The present period of fuel history is unique. It is
~ . I I I I , ~ ( ~ I . ~ . I I I 1.0 . ; I ~ 011t
~ a firm date to the end of the fossil fuel era but it is likely that
v 1 1 I.ll:~.ll,y ; I I I or t;lic usable oil and natural gas will be finished in less than 100 years. ! 2. Large-scale accidents and sabotage
kIo:;I. 111' 1,11(: c:o;~lwill be finished in less than 300 years from now. In a long-term
I I I : ; ~ , I l l . i c , i ~ . l ~)(:rspcxct,ive the world fossil fuel era is represented by the triangular blip I i 1:;lis (:xist of low probability, high conscquc~~lc:c i~('ci~Ic~lt,s :~~~o(:ii\.l.o(l wiI.11 I I I I I . I I . I I I
1 1 1 14):. :!.I!). 'I'lic apex of the triangle roughly coincides with the turn of the 21St I I.:II.~.I)~s, liydroelectric dams, and th(: transportat,ioll i ~ i l ( 1st,orag('01' l i ( j ~ ~ i I i ( - c 1l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
l1,:1:: (I,NG). Between 1918 and 1958 tharc wcrc an iLvc:ra.gc of 1 0 tloi~.t,l~s I ) I ' I ' \ ~ I ~ I I II .I I I I I I
11,111 III.,V. IS [.\I(: cnd of the fossil fuel era, especially the ending of natural crude
a 1 . 1 1 1 1 I';lil~iresin the USA, illcluding soiiie high c:nslialt,y i~~tlivicl~i;~,l I';~.il~~r.c-:; ' I ' I I ( Y I I ~
1111 :,l~l~l)lic-s, s~ifficientlynear to engage the attention and action of the nations and
I I I , I IIIII.:; 1 11' I,II(:world?
II!I,III.~-S ;Lre comparable with the fatality f i g ~ ~ r cfroln s t,lic?T3rit.isl1(YI;I.I i l ~ c l t ~ : : l , ~ 111 v
I 111, S;LI~IC and both have becn sigllificailtly rc:tl~ic:t:cli l l I.II(: ~ ) ; ~ :.\ sI ) l \ ~ ( , I I I , : ;
\\'I11.sl.(.:Lse scenarios for both dams and LNG f:~ciliticss~lggc~st. 111tt111)('rs 01' I . ; I S I I J I I I ~ ~
q I I I ll);lrable with those anticipated froiii scvcrc i11i~l(:i~r
( il.(:(:i(l(:tll.s.111 1 i l l 1 1 11 I I i l 1 1 1 .
t i . I {.isks Associated with Energy Systems q l I l I ' I ~ I . ( ~ ~ ~ ( : C is that casualties from tlairl failllrc:~,oil fic:l(l firc:s ~ I . I I ( (~' X I 1Iosi1111:;11 1 1 1 1
I .N( : ;l.c:cidents are immediate and obvious. By corii~);l.riso~l, 1111(.1('itr; I . ( . I . ~ ( ~ I I II I~
I YI I ~
:\ I I I ' I I I ~ I . ~systjcins
: ~ entail risks. Some risks affect public health and welfare directly. , : I I I : ; I ~ (lclayed effects that affect a largt: nli~nl)crof ~)c:o~)lc: ; I . I I ( ~ I.~I(:I.(:['III~I* I ' I I J : I ' I I I ~ I ' I 11
( ) I 111.1. ~.isltsi~ffcctthe environment and have direct or indirect ecological impact.
,:I # . ; I {.(:I. public apprehension.
' 1 ' 1 1 1 ~ I*st.l.;~.c:l,ioil, transportation, distribution and use of prime fuels, especially fossil 1 1 1 [!I88 an explosion and fire oil ail offsl~orc: oil [)l;~t.Soriii ill ( , I I ( ~ Nol.t,I~ S I ~ II( iIl l l ' l l
I I I I * ~ : ; , (.~.(~;~.t.o some environmental and ecological side effects that rnay be not only I r i ' r ' I)c:ol)le. This was thc worst, siliglo ci~c:rgy-ii~cl~lst~r~y i ~ ~ ( ~ i ( l (i !l l~ ~I .t I, ~ I . I ~ I I I , ~ L I I I I ( ~ I I ,

I I I I I I I ~ : ; ~ I . ; I I ) I ( ~ \)lit,dangerous to human life and welfare. Risk assessment, as applied I , I I11 11 ~;tsisingt,he fact thttt evcii indnst,ric:s c:olisitl(:rc:tl low-risk I)y (,II(: 1,111 i l i c r,s~lc'l. 11
1 1 I 1.111~rgy syst,cins, is unreliable, subjective and controversial. No attempt is made I I , : I I . I I t,oll on their workers.
1

111.11. ;l,l)port,ion different risks in a quantitative or even relative manner. The 111(111strial plarlt,~:LK i~lwi~ys v~iliic!rii,\)lc:
Lo ~ i L ~ ) O ~ ~ i Nl,~ ~ ~i (! ~ . l (I)I;I,III,s
~ i ~ , l ~I , I ' I I I ~ LO 1 1 4 '
: I ~ I ~ H ' Ois; I to . ( . I~Li o t cthe main areas for concern. Different observers may reach very I~~~l.l.c~~.-g~~:~r(l~!il t,hnil tli~insor IJNG rc:fil~c:ric:s.A tlisc:~~ssioi~ of' I.l~isissl~c-is ~ I I I . I I I I I I * I I
1 I I I I ' I ~ I . I ~ I I c-o~~c:l~isions
~. as t o the relative seriousness of the various features delineated. I I I ( !\I;I,~)~,(Y 8.
I ~ ~ . ~ I . I , I I ~of( ~ sthe risks associated with energy production and use are discussed
1 1 1 1 ~ 1 1 . 1 . l , 1 1 ( ~ Ilc:;~li~igs listed below [lo].

:' 1;. I 1 1 1 1I11~1,rii~l

;lci*ideiltsand industrial diseases
:'.( i .:?I ri~.~.~\('-~(.itl(:
;~.c:c:idcnt,s and sabotage
( i :\ ~ ~ : I ~ I I ; I , ~of'(:ri(!rgy
( : I I I ( : Iw;~sl,(n
I~,
:' li:l I':l~llsysl~(~lll c~fl'c~c~l.s
ti !I ~ \ ' : I ~ ,S II I*I III 'I I ~ I ) I . I I I ) I I ~ I I I S
:! l i l i lq~1l~i:i::io~~:,
 JIIIII ( I I I I I , I I I ~ , V I I I I , ~ . ~ I I I , I I I * )'1'111,
~ ~ 1 1 I.I 1I I I : ; II,~I~I'III~II.I~~IIIII:~ . / ~ , I I , S I Y I I I !I~, I I I I S S I I I I I S I I . I ' I * I . I I I I : ~ I I I I ~ I I

III S I I I I S I ~ ( ~ I , I ~ I 2.(i,fi.:!
II 111-IIIW, 1 1 1 11,1I(lit,io11 t,o ~ J I , S I ~ I I I I SI ~ I I I I S S I O I I SI'IISSI~ , I'III~I IIIII.IIIII~,
l . Si I I I~I I I .~ ;LIIVI-I.SI'
I':III.I~:,v I ~ ~ ~ l ~i l . 1~1 1 1 (I I S~( * 11i1.s ~ ~ ('(:ologi~.i~.l i ~ ~ ( . l l ~tll(:
(:Il'(*(:t.s, ( l i ~loss
~ gof
I~,IVI~S 1111' solitl ~ ~ r l , ~ ~ oI' l . iIc. ; ~
L I l. ~~
) O~I Is, ~ 0 1 1 1 1 ~11:~s
I,\I;LII I 1 1 1 1 1 1 i l l six(', l ~ l 1.1.11.1.1-
~ ~ sI I . I I I I I I I I I ~ . ~ I
I I . I I I , I I I ~ , I I I , I I I I , W;I,I,I~I. I~I*SOIIIX:(~S, II;I,I,II~:LI I ) ( , ~ I , I I ~ # , ~ ,OI)(;II SI):LC(:, ll;~l)itat,wildlife preserva- ,1 1 Ilc>:l,v,y I I ~ ( ~ ~ , ; L I /\
s . c\(:t,;l.il(:tlt.(~c:Jll~i(:i~l i~11;~Iysis 01' 1,11(! (~fI'(:c~t.s 01' I . ; I . ~ ~ I O I II ) I I . ~ ~ . ~ ( . I I ~ I I ~ . I ? ~
1 . 1 1 1 1 1 ; I I I I ~W ~ I I I ( > I . I I ( ' S S iI.r(,iLS. 'I'II(:r(:li~t;i~(: i~l~porta~ that
~ c emight be attached to these I:; ~ I I I , I I I I I ~ ( i\ l l st~I)s(:(:t.io~t 4.4.2.4 01' C:li;~l)t,or4 (c:or~I).A 111or1'J!;I>II(~I.:I.~ S I I I I I I I I I I . I ~111'
~ ~ J I I~ I I I S c.r.il.c.l.i;l,i t 1 ( ' o l ~ ~ l ) i ~ r .with i s o ~t~ h u~~iversal~ need for energy, is very much a
J~,:I:;I~OIISc:l~lissioilsfollows 1lc:rc.
11 .:I1.1 I I.(, 11' i I I ( l i vi11ti;i.lopillioll. Loss of ecological diversity has long-range human con-
(

: # I , ( ~ I I I ) I I ( . I * S(,I I ; L ~ , i~r.(: 11ot w ~ l understood

l compared with the more immediate effects
I l l l ~ l l l ~ l ~~ / ~ l~ ~ , y~ v ~ ~ l ~ ~ ~ ~ l l l ~ : l l t , .

11. is c l i l l i c ~ ~ to ~ l l assign
~ quantitative levels to the destructive side effects of dif- ' I ' I I I I I I ~ 2 . 8 . World carbon dioxide emissions, 1990- 2020 (~rlilliorit . o r ~ ~ ~ c : n141
) ([ll.oj131.l.i1111 IWHIIIIII~~I

III,:~I 1-c.ot1omicgrowth).
I I ~ I I ~ I (I ~8. ~ ~ ~S' ~~S.~gO~I Iy~F'lom S. the point of view of ecosystems it is possible that
Ily I l I I ~~,l~.c.l.l.ic: 1)owc:r development, with its "clean" public image, is more destruc-
~ , I V I ' 111*1. 1 1 1 1 i l . o f ollcrgy output than fossil fuel plants because of the large land area

I I I \ $ ( 11 V I V 1. S i ~ ~ ~ i l i ~the l . l yland-based
, production of biomass can have very serious
ReglonICountry
Il~duatrlallzedCountrles
North America . . . . . . . . . .
1990

1.556
History

1998

1,742
1999

1,761
m 1 1 -
2005

1,972
Prolectlona

2010

2.119
2015

2,271
2020

2,423
- - Avornga Anllrlrl
Parcant Chmga.
1999-1010

I .n
I l~.:.l,l.~~l.l.ivc* sitlc c:ffccts that are less obvious than those of fossil or nuclear systems. Il111led statesa . . . .
. . . . . . 1,345 1,495 1.511 1.690 1,809 1,928 2,041 I 4
1;itnada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 146 150 158 165 173 180 ( I I1
'1'111- t%cx)logic:;~l side effects of nuclear power are smaller than for any other es- Moxico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 101 101 124 145 170 20'3 :I 4
~ . i ~ l ~ l i : ; l ~c9l1t:r.gy~-tl source. Only if it becomes necessary t o deep-mine for low-grade .
Wostern Europe . . . . . . . . 930 947 940 1,005 1,040 1,076 1,123 0.0
llt~iledKingdom . . . . . . . . . 164 154 151 168 177 184 102 I I
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 O I . ( ~ Swill the effects become comparable with coal mining. The widespread 11~1rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 110 109 116 120 126 135 I 0
0 I
I I:,(% I 11 I I I . ( > I ~ lt:r
I rc:;rctors would eliminate that necessity. (i(lt.many . ............ 271 237 230 246 252 258 287
0 I1
1l:lly .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 122 121 131 137 141 146
Iai ,:,:;it I ' I I ( ~ I ~ r ~ i ~ ~processing ing, and usage has some very evident ecological effects, Nolherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 66 64 66 67 69 71 1) 4
0 11
t I q . 1 1l.11, 1111,: I I I ~ L ~ I I011 ~ Y the locale. The location of offshore oil rigs, for example, can
Oll~erWesternEurope. . . . . . 223 260 264 277 287 297 313
0.8
111dustrlalizedAsia. ....... 357 412 422 447 461 479 487
0.1
I I J I \ , I * : ; J l : r ~ i l i c ~ i r . ~ ~offccts
l, on local marine life. Synthetic oil prodl~ctionfrom oil shale . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.1,~1,;11> 269 300 307 324 330 342 353
I I
............
A~~olralasia 88 112 115 123 130 137 144
1 1 1 . 1 111.1 I 1l.111 l 1 1 c . 1 , ~would have major ecological impact in pollution and contamination 1.2
I
Totallndustriallzed ...... 2,842 3,101 3,122 3,425 3,619 3,825 4,043
t l l I I I I . I I ~ j~,1x11111(1water flow. I I iFSU
I I
I ~ , ~ l ~ i o r S o v i e t U n i .o n. . . . . . 1,036 599 607 665 712 795 857
0 I1
. . . . . . . . . .
I;~:.l~rrnEurope 301 217 203 221 227 233 237
lotal EEIFSU ....... ... 1,337 816 810 886 940 1,028 1.094
1.4
2 . 5 Water supply problems
I ~ ~ ~ v o l o pCountries
lng
Ili 1:;:;iI 1'111.1 ii11(1 1111clearsystems for generating electricity require the availability of I~oveloplngAsia . . . ...... 1,053
C.IIIIKI . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 617
III.IJ:~+ lllil,ss(bsof water. Any heat-work energy conversion system, such as a steam 111rll;i . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . 153

I L I II l r i r 11- c 11. ;I. ~~t~c:lcar reactor, involves a necessary cooling process for which water :;o~rthKorea . . . .
. . . . . .. 61
I llllar Asia . . . . .
. . . . . .. 223
I:, I I I I I S ~ lil(c'ly , 11scd as the coolant fluid. Consequent heating and discharge of the Mlddle East. . . . . . . . . . .. 231
1111key. . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
I . I I I I I I I . I I I . w:~.t,(:r can have ecological impact. In the choice of site for an electricity- ( llllor Middle East . . . . . . . . 196
~ l . t , i r ~ ) :~ I , i ~ t , ithe
o ~ lavailability of adequate cooling water supply is a vital con- Alrlca . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
,:I.III.I
Control and South Amerlca . . . 178
: ; I I I I * I I I , ~ . ~Wlic>ri I I I I . a station is located on a seashore or lakeshore, the operation of a I I,,~/il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
I Illlor CentraVSouth America . . 116
::I : ~ I . I O I I 111;l.y i~,ll'(:(:t,the i~nmediateand downstream water turbidity and temperature. Totol Developing ..... .. 1,641
I I r ~ , ~ ~ ~ ~1 1~i l ~ ~to~be ~ used
l ~ ;a ~
t an
. t inland
, c ~ rsite, this may affect the local hydrolog- IC,IIII World ... ... .. .... 5,821
11-111 c.yc,l~t,i ~ . s i g ; ~ t , water i o ~ ~ , table levels, water run-off streams and the availability
I I I I I ~ I . I I S I . 01' W;L(,(Y for other consumers.
 a !l1111l 111.:: 1I I :\:, I l l 1\1;11l.l1 I!)!)!l,s:\ I 4 l l l l l l Ill,:, I1:11l :~l,',111~ll I Ill. l'lllIll0 O l , 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i l l 111,:

1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ~ I I I .1 i 1 1 1li1,;1l 1,111 : I I I I ~; III 11111 ,111 1 1 1 1 . l ~ ! : ~ ~ . ~ , \ V~ I I~ I I~ \ I ~~ . ~ ~

\\'111111 I , : I I 1 , 1 1 1 1 I ~ I I I ~ I I, I I~I I :~ ~ :IL I O I I : : I I I I!)!)O. l!)!)S : I I I ( / l!)!l!l, I . O ! : I * ~ I I I ~ I . ivil.11 ~ ) I . ~ , ~ I > ( . ! . ~ O I I S
Ill\.# lI\.I. 11:;'.; 1 1 1 1 I l I l : 1 , ~ 1 ~ l1~~ 1 1 : l l l ~ : l ~I ~l l; 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 : , 1 . 1 I ; ! \ ~ ~ I ! ' , ; l l l l ~ ! ; l1l 1 ~ 1 1
I I I : I , ~ l l l 1 1 ' 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 . 1 1 1 1 1 ~ ;l l I ( ~ I I l ~ I ~ ' . \ '
1 1 ) :!11:!0, ; I I I . ! : I \ ~ I * I I i l l ' I \ I . I ) I I L :!.S 1,11. : I I I ; I . S ~ I I I I I I ' I ~" l ~ i g l ~I . ;"I ( . ( T 01' (:(.ol~oltli(. growt.11.
I . I I I I I I I I ~ I I I I ~ I I ~I . I ; I , ~ . ~ I ~ I . I IISI .I :!(I01 I I I I ~ I IS,4 I ~ ) I I I I ; I . I I I I ~ , ~ I * I . ~ 1I1 .1 1I .~ I ' I I I I I I I .: I II IIC II 1 1 , .
11111
,411; I I I , I - I I I : ~ [ , IS IV~ (I~ ,I I : I . I ~ 01'I I I " \ O W " I > ( , ~ I I ~ I I I ~~ (I , . o w ~ , l'r0111 \I, 1,11(: SiLIll(! sollr(:c, r(:slllts ill
IIII<.II .SI!I,II IJIY.;I,IIS(-
(,I) oI'~1ossil111~ I ~ ; I . I I I ; I , ~ ~L, 11,sI - I I I - I . ! ~ , , ~I I I I I I I S I . I I I ~ S : \ I I ( I ;I.I:~o 1 1 1 . 1 : I I I : ~ I ,
Io
I ~ ! ~ , I I I , I > > : :?','O 5','/;!
s
I ) I % I ( )w ~ , I I I , ( I ; I ~ , : I , 01' ' I ' ; I , I I I ~ ~2.8.
( , I . . I . I I . I II (I ~ . s~( ~~II..\ J : I;I.I)OII(. I , ~ ~ I I( , ISI ( , j : I ~ ~ l ~ ; ~U. . l; I . I . I I I ~ I I ~ : I I - v ( - I s S I I ~ ~ , ! ; I ~ S I I , I I i l l 1 1 1 1 ' I . ; I ~ I . I I ~ I I
I!. is ~ ~ I I ~ ; L 1'1.0111 I. 'I1;~.l)l(~2.8 I.11i11. c.arl)o~itlioxide clnissiolls are expected to rise
I I ' : V ~ ~ I . Y O I I ( ~ i:; ;I/:I.(YYI O I I 1,111. I I ( Y - ( I Ii)r : ~ c . l . i oI ~) r ~t l . I I I ) I I ~ ,01' 1 1 1 1 . I I I : I , ~ I I I , I I I ; I L ' I . I : ~ I I I I \ , I .
I G B I I , .
1 . 1 1 1 1 1 ~ I I I I ( I I I S I , ~ 1111l.il I,II(:y(:iLr 2020 i ~ n d probably beyond. As nlight be expect,ed, the
.. , , I (:!Ot ) 2 ) I ) t * c > r ~;1.1)1(1 1,o ~ I I I ~ ) ~ ( ~ I I I it.. (~II~.
I ~ l ~ 01' l l ~1,111. (~111issio11s origil~ntl:in the industrialised countries of the OECD group.
( ' O I I . ( ' S O I I It I , i(~ ~ l )~
I(I: in
~I ~respect
: of the particular fossil fuels coal, oil and natural
!:;I:; ; l . r ( > / : i v c ! ~ ~ill i~ppropriatechapters below. Because of the amount used, oil is

11.:;111~1lsil)l(~ (i)r i1ior(: carbon emissions than coal, as illustrated in Fig. 2.20. If !,<,:,:,II I'II(>I l ) ~ i r ~ ~ plants
i i l g cli~it,;L vi~ri(:t,y01' l111t- gi~,s(:s, ( l i ~ ~ 1g1 1 ' : ~ I I I ~ I I I I I, I
i i ~ ( ~ I ~ lositl~,:;
I % I I I , ~ ~ : ~ c~~ils11111ptio11 grows at presently projected levels, the annual carbon dioxide c ,.,I,It,:; 01' ~~it,rogcil, o ~ ~ l i ~ ( : t , l ~;I.II(I
oxiclcs of ( : ; ~ r l ) pli~s i ~ ~~ i~ (I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I I ~ ~ I I O I ~ I I ( ~ : I ~ I ~ 'I"(~ I I ' II ,I ) I : ~ - ( ~
~ . t ~ ~ i : ; s iwill o ~ l rc:;rch
s 8 billion tonnes in 2010 and 9.8 billion tonnes in 2020. Thus 1 1 1 :1111Iit,io1), i], inajor sour(;(+ of air polli~t,ioiiis [ Y O ~;\,i~t,oi~~ol~ilr
II (*~I\;I,IIs\:;, \ \ $ I I I I 11 1111.
\ \ ( I 1 1 1 1 1 (.:1.1.1)011 (lioxide emissions would exceed the 1990 levels by 56% in 2010 and 1 1 . 1 1 I I I . I I I ; I . U I ~ rc~sponsil~lc for (:arbon i~iol~oxiclo, g ( : i ~ ; I . I I ~ I~I V I I I 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' 1
~ ~ i t . ~ . o(Iio~icl(3
\ \ , I 11111 I 1 1 I I I I . ~ , I.lii~11tlouble by 2020.
I I I ~ , : ; I , :~,~~\,oii~ohilt: pollutants nlay ilit,c!r;~(:l,l)iologi(:i~lly;LII(I ( ~ I I ( ~ I I I ~ ( ~ ; I \, VI I I ~ 1 1 I I ~ J I ~ \ I (

I~~~.c~l.lr;ll.io~~;~l concern about the levels of carbon dioxide emissions and the pos- I I , , 1 1 1 I,I(-(.t.ric:it,y-geilerating plants. C:~,rboni ~ i o ~ ~ o x(i((:lO ( ~) is ;I, I ~ ; I I I J ~ , I + IP,III : , / I , I I : , 1 1 I
: b ~ I I I ~ ~kIli~.l,s (111 c:lilllate resulted in the Kyoto Protocol agreement in 1998. This
a
I I I I I I I ; I ~ Si1.1~tllltimans because it is a11act,ivc: oxygt:~~ sc:c:k(,r. I!. l.c~;~.clily ( . ( I I I I ~ I I I I I * : : \r111 1
. I ) ~ . I ~ * I (.;I,IIs . I I I I for
~ I Iquantifiable
~. goals for emission reductions from participating 1 1 ~~.~~loy!lol)in, which is the oxygen c:a.rricr ill 1.11(:1~1ootlsl.r1~;11~1. A I ~ I I . I . I , : I : ; ~1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .
( I : [ 11.111;11.(:cl growth of gaseous cnlissioils is sl~owiii l l Fig. '2.2 I 11'21.

Billion Metric Tons Carbon Eauivalent ( ':~~c,i~logens are also present in fossil fiicl c:~iiissioiis,l);~.r!,i(.~~l;~.~.l,y ~ I I I I S I , I ' I I I I I I 1.11111
\ . I I I , ) I I S c!l~vironmentaleffects such as acitl r i ~ i~r(: i ~ tlis(.~iss(-(I
~ i l l ( !II;II)I.('I 1.
I ' I I ( ~ so-called "greenhouse" effect,, app1ic:tl Lo t,l~c,c!i~.rt,ll's I . ~ ~ I I I ; I . ~ .i:( ~ ,:I.: ~ I . I I . I I I I 1 1 1 .

I I I V , , I y ( . l ~ iwas ~ t first proposed about 100 yoi~rsil.go 1,111, is sl.ill ~ , I I I L o l r , j ( ~ , l 111' : , I 1 1 1 1 1 .

a 1 1 ~ ~111.(%.
1 'I'he earth's gaseous atmosphere pcrlrrit.~t,llc: c:;~syI , ~ ; L I I S I I I ~ S S I~I(I (11' i l 1 1 . 1 I I I I I I I J ~ ,
1 1 1 1 ~;l\;iol(:t,, visible and infrared solar ratliatio~~ t,l~;r.t, is 111ost.1y ~ x ~ l l ~ ~ . ! 1):11.1, . c ~ l 1'10111
I 1 1 1 , I , ; I I . ~ surface. .~I's (Note: A inore tletailetl acc:o11111. 01' " , q r t ~ ~ ~ ~ /:;I,s l ~ o1 ~ 1 1 1 )~
':"1s
, : ~ ( ~I:I"

1 1 1 , I I I I I ( . ~ I i l l Chapter 11 below.) Tlic: 11et r:~,(lii~,t,io~~ (:fl'(:(.!, 0 1 1 ; I , ~ , I I I ~ S ~ ) \ I II ;~I I I1 ~1 1

I , l 1 ( 8

c I V . I I ~ - ;I. t,l~cr~nal barrier aro1111dt,l~t: c:;~.rt,li,

rc~sultiiigill ;L ~)ossil~lo slow ~ I I I , I . I - ; I : ; I . I 11' 1111.
G . I I I 11's~ I - O I I temperature:.
~ I ~ Tllcrt: is ~~~~c,t:rt,ir.i~~i,y ovc:r t.l1(! ~)r.cv.iscs I.;I.!,I~ : I I I I I 1 1 1 1 I I I I I I ~1 %

I I I . I ! : I I of ~ ~any I I ~global
~ ( : tc:n~peri~t.~~rc: risc:. A L!)X:l rc:l)orl,I)y 1.11(, liS I 1 : ~ ~ v i ~ ~ r
I ' l o r I V ~ ~ . ~ Agc~11c:y OII (EPA) st,i~tc:cl;L possil)l(!i~lc:rc.:~,sc: o S ' L " ( 1 I ) y ! . I I ( ~ I I I ~ I I I I I ((11' , 1 . 1 1 1 . :!I"'
( t 1 1 1 111.y;1,11(l i~ 5')(: ii~(.r(:i~,s(: l)y 2100. 'l'l~is~ 0 1 1 1 ~1.(:s1111,1 i l l ";I lists i l l j : l o i r ; ~ I ~ ~ \ , ~ ' I I I J : I .

, . ; I I I > V ( ! ~ i l l l ( 1 (h;Lllli~t,it: (:lli~llg(!~

i l l l)rt!t:i[)it,i~~iOll ilJl(1 ~!,Ol'lll I('V('~S" 1 1 :ll.
:\ 11111rt: r(!~~siit st,1tdy iiivolviiig 2X (>x~)t:l.t.s I'ro111I 2 (.o~~~~I.t.i(ss 11111:; (i I I I I I I ~ I . ~ ~ I I I ~ :

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Statistics
Database and International Energy Annual 1999, DOEIEIA-
0219(99) (Washington, DC, January 2001). Projections: EIA,
World Energy Projection System (2001).
 I , I I i1.111I~ol1rg's very high per capita c:rriissiolis im: tl~lc!00 sllli~.llI ) O ~ ) I I I I I . I , ~ O I I I I I I I I l.I1(5

I 1 1 , . I I I ~.sollccof a large steel plant. Ncw Z(:i~li~~i(l 11i1.slow ('~llissio~ls 1'1.1 , 1 1 1 ( ' 1 1 1 ' 1 I:\'

I I.,,., 11 1115 t,o the predominance of hydroc,lcc:l,l.icit,y,11111, vctl.y I l i l ; l ~ (>~l~is:;io~l:i I I I 1111

~ I * 1I 1 - 1 1 I I I I I . ( \ tlue to the large nnrd)cr of sl~c:cll)!
S I I I IoI fI the ~ larger industrial couiitri(!s, s11(*11 ;I,S ~ Y ; I . I ~ ( (7.%), Y> ( ~ I , I , I I I ; I , I I ,( ~I : ? . l i : \ ) ,
1800 1900 2000 , , I D , I I I I (7. I ) , Italy (9.0) and J:~pa11 (9.5), II:L\J(, low 1 1 1 ~(.;\l)il:~, I ~ I I I ~ S S ~ II III II (I, S 1 0 1 1
Year 4 ~ D I I I ~ I ~ I I ; I ~of . ~ energy
O I ~ efficiellcy, ili(ll1~1,rii~I s ~ . I . I I ( . ~ , I I ~ (; !I I I ( ~ I . \ I ( , I I S I * 01' I I I I ( . I I ' I I I , I I I I L V I * I

' I , ! I Worl(l g.rerrlhouse gas emissions [12]. CH4 = methane; N2O = nitrogen oxide; C 0 2 = i I 1 1 4 . 1 1 I loc!s liot c,reate grceiil~oiisc:gi~sc:s)[ 151.
q I I(:; (:I<'C:s = chlorofluorocarbons.
0 1 B, 1 1 1 I 111 ) x i 1 I\ 111:1,,ior increase of C 0 2 ~lllissiollfro111( ~ ; I . ~ ~ , ~ I - ~ I ;~.(.I.ivil,io:; ~IIII(~ W O I I I I I I,;III::I. 1 1 1 1 %
1, \ , , I 1 1 1 ;~.l,l~~ospheric GO2 t,o l)11il(/1111, possil~ly~ I I ( : I ~ ~ ~ L1,111, S ~ II,II(~I~III:I,I
IL ~ I I S I I I I I I , I I I I I ($1
1, I A11.y i~.(l(lit,ic)i~i~l 11(:i~t, I ) r o ( l ~ ~ ( ~
11.yo ~
( , I
i I ( : ~ ~ ( : ( : I I \ I ~ I
(:ll'(v~l~I s W( I I
: I I I I I li~,sl, 111, IIII:-OI II~~II
I~.I,OI I ;I( i ~ l l , t . 1 iriformation
~~ in Table 2.9 should be regarded as partial and subject
~ I I ~~ Il i s ~ , ~ . i l ~l)y ~ ~t,11(:
t , ( :O((l: ( , ~ I , I I S ,so i ~ l t ; r o ( I ~ ~;I,~ 1,i111v . i l ~ gIi\,gof' SOV(~I.;I,I ( I I Y , ~ I , I I I , : ~ I I I . I ~ I I I *
I,I I I ~ \ , I ~ ~ ~ I I .
I 111. : I 11. ~,~~11l~)(!~iLt,llr(~s ill~'~~!il~S(!~~.
111 t ( Y ) I I I I ~ ~ I I labelled "Forestry and Change of Land Use" of Table 2.9 most I I I I . I I > ; I , S ~ I I ~ t,Ii(: l(!v(~l 0 ~ ; ~ ~ , 1 1 1 o s(~:~0l 12 W ~O I I~I ( Ir, i ~v~i i ~;,I , I I , ~ ( Y I I I S ( V ~ I I I ~ I I I, ~I - ,I I I ~ ) I , I , I I ~ , I I I I *
( 11 I 1 1 1 - l i j : l l II*S ;~.r(: llcgative, implying the absorption of greenhouse gases. This is a
q II!IIII:IU:;, 1111,vc: I.I1(:(:ff(~.I, 01' r ( ~ ( l i s l , l . i l ~ ;~I~~lI. i- ~~~~g~ I I1)ro~l11(~l,iviI.y I I , I I I ~ : I , ~:1.(.1,11~:; 1 1 1 1 , W I I I 111
I ~ , : , I I ~111' I li)tx~s~~i~~,ioli and agricultural planting wit,h the resultant increased digestion
I I I I I ~ ~ ~ : ; s iI (l, ;~ 1.0 I I I I I ~ . ~ I . I (I .~I. I ; I I I ~ I ~ Si l l 111;1111 ; 1 1 1 ( 1 i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 ; l . l lilis. I I I S I I I I I I * I I - J , , ~ I , I I : : 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 ,
~ . tll y
I 11 I , ; I I . ~ I I I I I ~lioxi(l(~,
c , 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 . c~c~ologic~;~.l tlis:~.sl,(>l.. 11. I . I ' ~ I I ; I . ~ ~ IIS. I ) I I , ~ ( % (;IS . ~ 1.0, I Iw~ \.I: (I\\~ . \ I I(. >\ I II. . I \ : I I I J : I . I I I I I : ~ I ' I ~
A I I ~ I , I . : I .l~~~ i; L~ t,lic:
s world's 1lighc.st ~rc:olihousegas elrlissiorls per persol1 a t 26.7
I , , 1 1 1 1 , J ~ , I ~ ( Y ~ I I ~ I O IISII'(,(,I, IS(~ is ; I ~ . ( ~ : ~ '1'111% l i l . ~; 1.l , l , i l , 1 1 1 1 ( ~ "w:~ilI I , I I I I S I V , " i s I I I I I I , I I I I ; I I I \ , I I : I
I ~ I I I I I ~ \ ~v I: I ~~ (~. I I is l,wi(.(:l,li(: ~ I , v ( ' Y ~ I , KI (( >~V I ~ ~ ~ I il~(l~lst,riiilis(:(/ I ~olll~l.ri(:s (1;i.A 1,01111(!s)
4 1 III~:I.I(III:; ;I.:; (.III' I . I I I . ( - ~ I . L il.s~~II'. I ) I I I ~ lo \ ~ ; I I ~ I ) I I : ; 1111:<iI,iv(* I'IYVIII;II~I{ I*II'I.I,I>, \VII I I I I I 1111.
; I I I I I :!FI";II I ~ ~ ~ ; I I I,II;I.II I ~ I ~ I , I I ( > fip,111.1-I i ~ r1 1 1 1 - I ISA ( 2 I .2l I,OIIII(\S),
# , \ I I I I ' : , ( ~ I I I I I I I I ~ I ~ ; I I , I I~ . (I I~ I I I ; I , I , ~ ( . I . , ~ I , I I , , I I ~ J 1,111,I L I I I I l L l 1 i 1 1 , I . I I I I I I I I i 1 . I , ~ I I I I I ~ * : ~ : I; I I I I - 1 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ t n : ~ : i
I -

11, I:: : : I Y * I I 1'1.0111 ' l ' ; ~ l ) l ( :!.!)

~ ( l ~ i t (\ 1 1 1 - I I : I ~ , I O I I S \ v i l , l ~I , I I ( % l~i~;l~(*sl, 1)1#1, ( . I I , I I ~ I , ; I . I ~ I I I ~ ~ S ~ I I ~ I S
1 ' 1 I , \CI*II, III'I.I'I,II*(I i l l 1 1 1 ~ I I I I ~ ~ I I I I I I YI I II I ' , ' \ V I , I I I I I 1 1 1 ' ~ I , I I * V I * I : ; I ~ I I~I II I. I I I I I I I , ~ , I ( . : , : ~ I \ * I . ~ \ '
: I I I ' , I I I I I I ( I I * I . , A I I : . ~ I . ; I I I ; I , I I ~ I ' I I I ~ ~ ~ , I I I 1! 1: 1, , . I IS/\, ( ! : I I I ~ IN ; I%,I ' : I ~ ; I I I ( ~; I I I I I 1 I l i l . ; ~ i ~ ~ ~ , .
( I~- W
 N I I II ~ , : I I I I , ~ I I . I I I I : ~ I I : I \ , I $ : : I I I : \ I I I * I 1.11'1v.I:; , 1 1 1 I I I I I I ~ I I ~ I , I I ~ I I I1'11:;~il ~ I I I :~; , ,I: , I , I , I I I ~ ; I I I . I , ; I I I > ; ( *
1 I l l . \ 011 1 1 1 1 1 1 ~ 1 1 1 1 1 ( '( ):I I l \ ~ l l l ~ l l ~ I lI (~, ~; l ll l~( ll ~ ~ , ~ ~ ~ l l ~ l l l ~s l o~ ll ll1 l: ~l ~;l,ls~l ~l ~ ~( 1~0 sl l l l l l ~ ~ l l rlitI l \ l t , ( ~
.II~.IIIIII.;IIIIIJ, I I I ! 1 , ~ ~ 5 ~ b !::~.sc*s.
~ ~ I ~' 1 't1 1~( ~~I I I~; I I:I I;I ~l ' .: I ( . I~I I . ( , 01' solil.r ~)l~ol,ovol~.;ric. O ~ L I I ( ' I S is
: I 1 1 1 , 1 1 ( * 1 )@,y I I h t , ~ , \ I : I1 l l l ~ ) ; \ l \ , l ~ ( ~ ( ~ l l ~I '1O ' ~~' ~ ~ I - I ' l l ~ ' I - ~ ( ' 1 1 (!l(!(:t,rl('ity
0 l ' i l ~ ~ ( ~ (l)llt,
~ t,ll(; c)pcriition
( 1 1 1 1 1 1 , 1):1,11(\ls I L I I ( ~ I I I s ( ~ I v ( ~ s ih I ) < I I I ~ ~ I I .
\Yill I . I I ( ~ I I S ~of' . li)ssil 1'11c:lsI)(' c~~r~t,rollcd to liirlit the "greenhouse" danger, by
1 1 1 1 , ;~l)l)lic.;r~.io~~ 01' 1,11(:Jiyot,o Protocol or otherwise? Will the oil and natural gas
I 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 I)c>li)ro t,l~c:irlist Iiiw irrevocably changed the atmospheric C 0 2 levels? Will
I I ; I I I I I X ' l i l ~ ( l ;I. W ~ L YLo a~it~oiiiatically redress any temperature rise? Is it already too
I ; I ~ . ( . IIIY.;LIISO t.li(>iiiitiati~lgchanges are irreversible and are already in place? Have
I 1 1 1 % sc,ic*r~t,ist,s ~ l l i ~ ~or. ~misinterpreted i~d the data and, in fact, there is no danger?

7 S ~ ~ t l l l i ~- Where Do We Go from Here?

ary

' 1 ' 1 1 1 . ::I 11,i1 )I( ~ g yi~ll(1politics of energy planning are enorinously complicated. Should
; I I I ; I I . ~~ I . I I I ; I I . c.olliit,ryhave a n overall energy policy or is this a n unwarranted inter-

11.1 ,.I I(.(. i I I {.IN. Src~c:ciolilof its citizens? Are there overall considerations regarding the 1 1 1 I.Ii(, lor~gterm, the future sccllls to lic with rc:iicw;il)lc ( , I I ( . I , [ ~ ~S I I I I I ' I ' I - : ,
\ v ~ . I I ; I I . I . 1 11' ~ . I I ( , c,olliit,ry, in energy matters, that transcend the rights of individuals?
1 : . I . I I I . I ! :1 ,1V~ 1i1,11(i ~ c:onservation so important as to justify mandated government
I , , l , l l l l l ' ~ I )liotovoltaic conversior~
I ~ ~ I( 111. I ()15(:1) countries the critical near-tern1 factor in energy supplies is the sol;~r-thermalsysterns
. I 1. I I 1;1 I l i I i I y I )I' licl~~icl fuels. Modifications of petroleum usage and energy conservat,ioll willti turbine systenls
11I ~ . ~ I : , I I ( 11' \~;rl.iolrskinds may delay the final scene but the end point is inevitable. o(.(>~LIIthermal currents
' 1 ' 1 1 1 . 1 1 1 1 I:; 1.1 I I I I I ~ I olit.
I ~ Energy planning on the scale that, is needed involves a lead wi~t,erwave energy
I I 1 1 1 1 . I 11' ::(*\,o1.;1,1 cic:cades. l~ytlropower
I';II. I 1 1 1 , il~tlustrialisedand developed countries of the OECD two principal energy I)rolll;lss and photosynt,hc\sis
1 1 1 I I I I I I ~ I I I S (,xist,:

11 1 1 ~ ~ 1 ~ 1 1;)1(.o~ltii~l~irig
sources of gasoline and diesel fuel for motor vehicles and
1111( 1;111 \.l/ol.l(l()ll(:rgy(.ollsllllll,t,iol~gl.(>wI),y 2.5(xI ('1.0111 I!)!)!)1.0 2000. ( ! ~ I I S I I I I1 1I1 1~1 I 1~1 1
1 1 1 1 $11' 1 1 1 ( ~ worlti iI.rc:iis iu ]Jig. 2.2 sl~owc:tlill(.rc~;~s(>s.
A I.(*(.OII~, li)r(:c;~sl. of I ' I ~ ~ , I I(\11(:1.g,y
~(, ( I ( ' r ~ l i l , ~ l c\by
l (.lrc, Slrc~ll( ) i l ( ! O I I I ~ ) :isI ,1:1\~('11 I I ~ 111
I ~ I I ~ ./ , I , : \ o l ' ( ~ I ~ i r ~ )14.
l , ('l'l~is
~ r 1)11t,s l'o~.wi~,r(l l , l ~ ( :vi(s\v l , i ~ ; ~ , ~l , I II , I I ( > I I I > X I , r)O , ~ ~ - I I I : ;
I L ~ I I - I ( >

I\ I I I - ( ~ I 1 0 1 (.o~lt.i~l~~iilgsources of prime fuel for use in the generation of electricity 1, 1 1 1 (l(~(~s(:;l,~iilg IS($ 01' l'ossil ( I I ( \ ~ S ,(-sl)(:(.i;~,ll,y oil, i 1 1 1 1 l ~ I I ( ~ I . ( ~ : I , sI~I ISII~*01'~ , I ~ I ~ I I ( ~ W I I I I I I ~
4 ' 1 1 1 ~ 1!',,' s0111'~'~'s.
( 1 111 1 1 1 1 . : ~ s - ~ ~ ~ l i that
~ ) t ~oil
i o and
n natural gas will ultimately be unavailable).

I ' I I I I I I I -I I, I(I. I I I I ( , ( * Soil I I ~ ) ; I , : I . I I I I I , : I . I I I I I ~ ~i r r~ I,(:YIIIS

I I ~s111)l)Iy, s s ~ ~ ~ol'I
 'I'll(, t l ; ~ i l , yO I I ~ . ~ ) I IoI'c:lrcrrg,y
~. fro111tllc: sun is 3 x 1 0 " .J.
~ What fraction of this
is i~~l.orc-c:l )lfo(1 11ytllc: cart,ll'!
'1'11(: sol;l.r c:oi~st,a.ntfor the planet earth is 1377 W/m. If the effective dia-
111(!l,ri(:ri~(li11~ is G.3G x log m, what is the radiation rate?
(:o~llpilca table of data, based on Fig. 2.1: showing the proportions of
il11)11t, solar energy for the earth that are used for (i) direct conversion to
Il(!iit,, (ii) winds, waves, water currents and convection, (iii) the evaporation,

l~~.c!c~ipitation and drainage cycle, (iv) photosynthesis.

W11i~twere the principal reasons for the sudden mass ilse of fossil fuels in
i ~ l ) o ~1700 l t AD?
IJsc: t,llc: data of Fig. 2.3 to roughly estimate the number of years of crude oil
s11l)plyremaining, based on present predictions of use and present reserves
1;)1.( i ~ the ) world, (b) the OECD countries, (c) the former Soviet Union.
I I< i f l g IIubbert, M. [1971] ('The Er~rrgyH.eso~~rccs
or thc! I':;~.rl.l~", I I I I ~ // ' , I I I ~ I . I
i l l I1ir;,~,,~,~l!l
l{(>~)(:i~t Problem 2.6 for natural gas supply.
(S(,icr~tific American, USA), Chapter 3.
I Ioo(:;L~, Problem 2.6 for coal supply. . h,l<.Vcigh,J. C. [I9841 Energy Around lhc. Wor,ltl ( I ' c : r K i r , t ~ ~1c' 1~- ~1 .~~ 5 , ( ) x l ' ~ ~ ~I';II):IIIIIII)
(l,
W l ~ ytloc:s Norway occupy so favourable a position in Fig. 2.8? .I "111' Statistical Review of World Energy, .Iril~c'LOO]",\<~'/AIIIo(.o, I , ( I I I ~ ~ O I I , IJl\', .IIIIII'
WII:I.I,sllollld be the ambition of a country with regard to its Fig. 2.8 coor- ;!IN) I .
I l i 1 1 ; 1 1 . ( > position? I "I~~l.c~rnational Energy O~lt,look199fn, US I)e[)t..of T':r~c:rg,y, W ; I S ~ I ~ I IIK) ( ~' , , I(I:;/\, III,
.I ; I J ) ; a l l l l i ~achieved
~ very successful economic performance in spite of poor I ((8l)ortDOE/EIA-0484(96), Mardl 1996.
t 'I~rl.c:r~~tior~al
Energy Outlook 2001N,US 1)(:1)(,. or I ' : I I ( T ~WY;,I S I I ~ I I ~I :)I( .' ,~1IIIS, / \ $
I I I ( ~ I } : ( ~ I I O I I energy
S supplies. What are some of the implications of this for
I (c5l)ort DOE/EIA-0484(2001),March 2001.
' I ' l I irxl Wvrld developing countries? "I $1' St,atistical R,eview of LVorld b;~~crgy",
131'/A111o(~o, I,OII(~OII, ( ] I < . V I ~i(111:i
I ~!l!itlt3fi
I,
W11.y arc the agriculture-based economies of Canada, Allstralia and New :?il~c.o 1996.
% ( ~ i ~ l i r . ~favourably
~cI located in Fig. 2.8? i " I I l i Energy in Brief", Dept. of Tra,tloil11(1 I11(111st,ry (1)'111), I 1 o ~ ~ OI Jol~i ,~,111ly , :!IlOl
W l ~ i i t ,iLrc the main reasons why North Americans consume such a high per :i " I J I < EIlcrgy Sector Indicators 20001', 1)c~)I.. or 'l'r.i~tlc;\.11t1 I I I ( ~ I I S ~ . I . ,( ~I ) ' l ' l ) , 1 , 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ,
l l I < , Nov. 2000.
) i l , i i amount of energy?
'I Mlt:ll(.rgy in the U~litedS1;atcs: A Dric'f JIisl,or,yi ~ 1 1 t 1Currc.111,'I'V(:III\S", M I I I I I . I I II':III'IP.V ~
I I I Fig. 2.8 the countries in the bottom left-hand corner, including Brazil, I li(5vi(?w, U S Energy Inforn~:itio~i A(J~~~ii)isl,~iit,io~~ ('ICIA), l)(,1)1,. ol' l4;11(tr~y, WII:IIIIIIV,I 1111,

(Illi~la,India and Indonesia, tvtal 44% of the world population. What are I )( :, (JSA, l)ec. 2000. }lttp://www.ria.(loo,60v/tr~~~~~~~/;1(!r/(!~~ l!)!)!)/(al~ ~!)!~!).~I~,III~
so~~lc: of the implications of these countries seeking to obtain a "bigger share I
I
Icr "l~:llc~rgy irl '11ansil.ion 1985 201OV, N;~.t.iol~ii,l I~.OS(:~LI.(~~I ( : o \ ~ ~ ~N( .i ~i lI ., i o l ~ ~Al ,I l. I I I ~ I * I I1I1Y1
01' 1 . 1 1 ~cake"? S(.ics~~c.c,s, Wasliingto~~, 1)C, USA, 1!)7!).
'I'Lic' tlilta of UK primary fuel consumption and production since 1973 are
I I ~ ~ ~ ~ of l ltkic
~ K,y~t,c)
~ i ~ l'r()~,o(;(~l
~ ( , s 011 US I C I I ( ; I . ~ , M;~,rl<~:l,s
~ i1,11(l l4;(~o~~o1l~i~. AI~I~IVII~,V"
1 ~ ( q ) ( , of
, Ell(~gy,Wi1,~11ingt,o11, I)(:, [JSA. ll,(r~)ori, l ~ O l ~ / l ~ l A ~ S l ~ , / O l (AI : \l, ~ / 1!4 ~1 H
givc,~~ in Tables 2.5 and 2.6. What do you deduce about the place, in the
l!)!lH.
(I(\: industrial scene, of the coal, gas and oil industries? I ' " ~ ~ l ~ ~ ~(::I.? ~ ~ El~~issio~~s",
l l l i c ~ ~ l~~ ~
s t~, (:! r ~ ~ ilCt~(~c,y
~ , l , i o ~Ajqb~~(,y,
~ i ~ l 0 1 1 ; ( : l ) 3 l c ' r ~ ~ l!l!ll
~~~,~$l
(:rcai~t Britain is now an oil-based economy with about one human genera- l , ;1,11(1 Koy(,s,I). lI!)H:\l c ' ( ! ; i ~WI~
I I : i l ~ i l ~ ~ l , S., ~ I ) ( ~ l i ~;I,~ y( ~ ~ ( Y - I I ~ I O I ILV;I,~II~II!~,'!",
SI~ (IS I ' ; I I V I
( . i c 1 1 1 l)(:riocl of oil and natural gas remainirlg. What consequent steps would I I IIIIII(!II~,~I~ I'ro(,(-(,(,io~~ A~(!II(.Y, W ~ I , S ~ I ~I )I( I:,~I~ISA, . O IS(~l11.
I , I!)H:l.
~ O I Ii~tlvocat,e as a national policy? I I N;l,lcI(:(~ll~,vic:, N . , ;,,llcl Sw;l.rl,, It..: "I':l~~issio~ls S(:I~II;I.I.~(IS: III~.('I.~:(IV('I.IIIIII.II~. ~ ' I I I I I ' ~1 1 1 1

~ ~t ~i v ( , ~ , s i I'r(,ss,
( ' l i l l l ; l . t , ~ ~( : ~ I ; I , I I ~ ( - " , ( ! i l . ~ l ~ l ) r i (I ll ~ t,,y ( : : ~ l ~ ~ l ~ rIIi l(i l, j:!(1(10.
:~~,
Wl~ic,llc:o~lntriesof tlic ORCD grollp supply more than 50% of their energy
I ,, I l ; l ~ ~ ~ i l t (, !.$ ( ~ ;l l ,~I l ~t I , I ' I I I ~ , ~ I11.: S ( ' I I ~ I I I I I 111' A I I I I I * V11I -
~ , "( ~ I . ( Y , I I \ I O I I S ( ,(:its I ~ ; I I I ~ S S ~ I I I I1'1.1.
I I ( Y Y I S Sro111ILOIL-fossil SOIIIIY~S'!
I B ; \ l , t , i ( -t ~, , ~t , l l ( , I < , ~ I ) I , O I ' I ~ O I . O ( ~ O ~A" (, !'I' ?fill:!, A I I ~ ~ , I , ; I ~N~I II VI ., l!)!l!l.
9 1

W I I ~ II I, I~( ,~ ~ L S I I wo11lil ~(~S y( I I I ~ I , ( I v I I ( , ; I I , ( ~ l,o I I Y I I I C ( ~ 1,110 ~ L I I I ~ I I I~ II ~' ~, ~ ; I . I . ~ I (lioxi(l(!

oII 111.1 l ~ : / / w w w , ~ ~ ~ , i . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ; . ~ ~ ~, Y ~ ~ I I /, I IlI / ~ ~ ~ l ~ l i ~ ~ : ~ l . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s /
~ I I ~ I I ( I I I ( ~ o (11.y
I ;I,II~,~III~II~II~;;'~ 11, N ; l ~ , ~ l (l :l ~1 ;~ ~ 1~ ~ ~ ~ ( 1;II:I1 ~I I I~V I~* I~I I ~, I I1 ~ (~1 ! I~I I ~I I ~I I I I ~ ~ . (I N~ I l~ :( : I ( '1, " N I I I ~ I I I I( I: II .II ~Y ~ I I ~ I ~ I I I I (I I ~* I I I I
, I ) I . y A I I : ~ I11111111
l l l ~ ~ ~ ~ l ~ I!)!)';", I I : I I ~ I . I I I I I(I)!lit I I :4;' . I .1 ' , ~ , I I ~ D1 II!,~ I A I I : I1 ~1 1 1 1 1 1 , I!)!)!)