Overview CDRA

Overview of Climate and Disaster
Risk Assessment
Roma Mae C. Quijano, LPT, EnP
Housing and Homesite Regulation Officer
Capacity Development for Managing Disaster Risks from Natural Hazards and Climate Change in the Philippines
DRRM/CCA Policies Standardization Project
THE PHILIPPINE CLIMATE CHANGE
POLICY FRAMEWORK
Borrowed slide from: ALONA R. ARREZA. Climate Change Commission. October 20, 2015
THE PHILIPPINE CLIMATE CHANGE
POLICY
Borrowed slide from: ALONA R. ARREZA. Climate Change Commission. October 20, 2015
RA 10121
AN ACT STRENGTHENING THE PHILIPPINE

DISASTER RlSK REDUCTION AND
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, PROVIDING FOR THE
NATIONAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND
MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AND
INSTITUTIONALIZING THE NATIONAL
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND
MANAGEMENT PLAN, APPROPRIATING FUNDS
THEREFOR AND FOR OTHER PURPOSES
Climate and
Disaster Risk POPULATION
Assessment URBAN USE

AREAS
NATURAL-
• studying risks and RESOURCE
BASED
vulnerabilities of PRODUCTION
AREAS
exposed elements LIFELINE
associated with UTILITIES
natural hazards and CRITICAL POINT

climate change. FACILITIES
CDRA
CLUP LDRRMP
CDP LCCAP
CLUP Guidebook Volume 1:
Procedural Steps in the preparation of Comprehensive Land Use
Plan and Zoning Ordinance
CDRA as additional tool for

analyzing the Situation
BASIC CONCEPT
• Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is

affected
• Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to

adjust to climate change
BASIC CONCEPT
Risk is the expected losses (of lives, persons injured,

property damaged and economic activity disrupted) due
to a particular hazard for a given area and reference
period.
The unit of measure of risk could be number of fatality

or value of damaged property
BASIC CONCEPT
• Likelihood of occurrence is the estimated period of

time expressed in years, that a hazard of a certain
magnitude is likely to repeat itself
• Severity of Consequence is a measure of the degree of
impact, such as injury, death, damage, interruption
brought to the sector of concern
Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT (CCVA) (DRA)
Temperature HAZARDS
CLIMATE
Rainfall
PROJECTION
Extreme Events
Sea Level Rise TSUNAMI
FLOODING LANDSLIDES
CLIMATE Forest POPULATION
IMPACT Agriculture URBAN USE LIFELINE

Coastal Area AREAS UTILITIES
CHAINS CRITICAL
Urban Area NATURAL POINT
RESOURCE-BASED FACILITIES
THE CDRA PROCESS
Step 1
• Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard Information
Step 2
• Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change
Step 3
• Develop Exposure Data Base
Step 4
• Conduct Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Step 5
• Conduct Disaster Risk Assessment
Step 6
• Summarize Findings
HAZARD INFORMATION
STEP 1. COLLECT AND ORGANIZE CLIMATE
CHANGE AND HAZARD INFORMATION
STEP 1. COLLECT AND ORGANIZE CLIMATE
CHANGE AND HAZARD INFORMATION
Data Requirements for DRR and CCA Integration
pages 19-20 of Volume 2
Data Requirements for DRR and CCA Integration
pages 19-20 of Volume 2
Hazard Information
READY Project
Multihazard Map
• Philippine Fault Zone • Surigao del Norte and
Maps (PDF Format) del Sur
– Earthquake-
induced landslide
– Ground Rupture
– Ground Shaking
– Liquefaction
Source:
– Tsunami
http://www.philvocs.dost.gov.ph
http://gdis.denr.gov.ph/mgbviewer/
Philippine Fault Zone
Maps (PDF Format)
READY Project
Hazard Information
Multihazard Map
• Earthquake-
induced landslide
• Ground Rupture
• Ground Shaking
• Liquefaction
• Tsunami
• Volcanic
Source:
http://www.philvocs.dost.gov.ph
Climate information and
Climate Change Projection
Source
• http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.
gov.ph/cab/climate
change/main.html
PDF FORMAT
Climate
Modeling
Scenario
Building
Different scenarios
SRES - Special Report on RCP – Representative Concentration
SCENARIO
Emissions Scenarios Pathways
Socio-economic driven scenarios Emission-driven scenarios

DESCRIPTION
Describes a wide range of potential futures for the

main drivers of climate change – greenhouse
gases, air pollutant emissions & land use
• Demography RADIATIVE FORCING

• Economic development
• Regionalization (No fixed sets of assumptions related to population
• Energy production/use growth, economic development, or technology
BASES
• Technology associated with any RCP)

• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Land use
NAMES
Capacity Development for Managing Disaster Risks from Natural Hazards and Climate Change in the Philippines-2
A1, A2, B1, B2 families RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 (Wm )
SRES vs RCP
Rising radiative forcing
RCP 8.5
pathway leading to 8.5
W/m² in 2100.
Comparison of CO2 concentrations from
SRES (A1B, A1FI, A2, B1) and
RCP (RCP 3, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 8.5) Stabilization without
overshoot pathway to 6
RCP 6
W/m² at stabilization
after 2100
Stabilization without
overshoot pathway to
RCP 4.5
4.5 W/m² at
stabilization after 2100
Peak in radiative
forcing at ~ 3 W/m²
RCP 2.6
before 2100 and
decline
Source: IPCC AR5 WG1
STEP 2. SCOPE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE HAZARDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE TO
THE LGU
Impact Chain Analysis
COASTAL
AGRICULTURE
HEALTH
WATER RESOURCES
STEP 3. EXPOSURE DATA BASE
DEVELOPMENT
EXPOSED ELEMENTS
1) Population Exposure
shall indicate the spatial location and
number of potentially-affected persons.
2) Urban use area Exposure
pertain to the built environment currently
utilized for residential, commercial,
industrial, tourism, sanitary waste
management facilities, cemeteries, and
other land uses unique to the locality.
EXPOSED ELEMENTS
3. Natural resource based production areas
pertain to areas utilized for crop, fisheries,
and forest related production.
4. Critical Point Facilities
Special emphasis must be given in describing critical
point facilities. These facilities provide key socio-
economic support services such as schools,
hospitals/rural health units, local government buildings,
roads, bridges, air/ sea ports, communication towers, and
power-related and water related facilities.
EXPOSED ELEMENTS
5) Lifeline utilities
cover the transportation, water

distribution, drainage and power
distribution networks.
DATA REQUIREMENT
HYDROMET AND GEOLOGIC
HAZARD INFORMATION
(Shapefiles) Elements at Risk
• Flooding • Population
• Landslide(Rain • Urban Use
induced and • Natural Resource
earthquake induced) Base Production Area
• Storm Surge • Critical Point Facilities
• Tsunami • Lifeline Utilities
• Sinkhole
POPULATION
SHAPEFILES NEEDED Attributes
• Type of Housing Unit
• Household • Age
Control Points • Disability status
(GPS Survey) • Access to early warning system
• Informal settlers
• Barangay • Awareness to hazard impact and climate change
• Employment Status
Boundary • Income status (Poverty Threshold)
• Educational Attainment
• Literacy Status
• Access to Financial Assistance
• Access to Information
• Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
• Government Investments
Urban Use Area
SHAPEFILES NEEDED ATTRIBUTES
• Urban Land Use Category (Residential, commercial,
• Updated industrial)
Existing • Average construction/replacement cost per square
meter
Land Uses • Building condition
• Barangay • Wall construction materials
• Date of Construction
Boundary • Structure employing hazard mitigation design
• Local awareness to climate change
• Area coverage to infrastructure related mitigating
measures
• Government Regulations
• Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
• Government Investments
• Insurance Coverage
• Available Alternative Sites
Natural resource based
production areas
• Existing Land • Classification
Use • Variety Produced
• SAFDZ • Annual Production/ha
• Barangay • Replacement Cost
Boundary • No. of dependent farmers
Critical point facilities
• Control Points of Social • Wall construction
Facilities (School, materials
Evacuation Center, • Building Condition
Multipurpose Hall, • Structure employing
Municipal Gym, RHU, hazard mitigation design
Hospitals, water related
facility, airport, seaport, • Date of Construction
barangay hall) • Government Regulation
• Barangay Boundary on hazard mitigation
and/or structural design
• Access to infrastructure
related mitigating
measure
Lifeline Utilities
• Road Network System • Classifi cation
• Drainage System • Length/Distance
• Bridges • Construction/replacement
• Ormeco Pole cost
• Communication Tower • Construction materials
• Water Pipeline used
• Barangay Boundary • Condition
• Structure employing
hazard mitigation design
Excel Tables for Exposure Data Base
DevelopmentDRA Tables.xlsx
Assessment Report 5
Tools for Analysis
• CCVA and DRA

– Population
– Critical Point Facilities
– Lifeline Facilities
– Resource Production Areas
– Urban Areas
(Sensitivity , Adaptive Capacity)
CCVA
EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY
DEGREE OF ADAPTIVE
IMPACT CAPACITY
VULNERABILITY
MODERATE
HIGH
Exposure Analysis thru Map overlay
CCVA Map Information
Climate Variables Hydrometreological Map/

Information (Based on
– Increase in Temperature Projection)
– Change in Rainfall – Flooding
– Sea Level Rise – Sea Level Rise
– Extreme Events – Drought
Exposure Analysis
Geologic Hazard Map
DRA Hydromet
InformationHazard
ELEMENTS – Sinkhole
•– Earthquake-induced
Flood Susceptibility
– Population
– Critical Point Facilities
• Landslide
Rain-induced
– Ground Shaking
landslide
– Lifeline Facilities
– Tsunami
– Resource Production Areas • Storm Surge
– Volcanic Hazards
– Urban Areas
– Liquefaction
– Ground Rupture
⨍(Risk) = Likelihood of Occurrence x Severity of

Consequence
Exposure Analysis
Exposure Analysis using Expanded Tables
MAINSTREAMING CCA- DRR IN THE CLUP
FOR CRITICAL POINT FACILITIES AND LIFELINE FACILITIES
Sensitivity Analysis
Exposed Elements Characteristics

POPULATION • % Male and Female
500 People • %Young and Old
Dependents
• Malnourished
• Differently Abled
• Informal Settlers
• Knows warning
information
Evaluating the
Degree of Impact
Evaluating Adaptive
Capacity
DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT
Geologic Hazard Map
ELEMENTS Hydromet
InformationHazard
– Population – Sinkhole
– Critical Point Facilities •– Earthquake-induced
Flood Susceptibility
– Lifeline Facilities • Landslide
Rain-induced
– Resource Production Areas – Ground Shaking
landslide
– – Tsunami
Urban Areas • Storm Surge
– Volcanic Hazards
– Liquefaction
– Ground Rupture
⨍(Risk) = Likelihood of Occurrence x Severity of

Consequence
Severity of Consequence Analysis
Risk Map
Step 6:ofSummarizing
Summary the
land use constraints and issues Results
related to climate and and
disaster Selecting
risk (CDRA Step 5) Decision Areas
Decision
Area Name Technical Findings Implications Policy Interventions
Area/s
• Moderately at risk to flooding;
• Highly vulnerable to sea level rise and

storm surges;
• Implement a mandatory relocation policy on
• A significant number of Informal
structures/dwellings within the 20 meter coastal and
settlers are situated along the coast;
river easements (Bungcalalan River).
• Potential deaths and injuries due
• A significant number of Informal settler
to lack of early warning system • Set aside areas for open spaces, recreation or parks
structures are made from light,
and makeshift houses especially to lessen exposure within the coastal area.
makeshift and salvageable materials;
in zone 1, 2, and 5
• When areas are to be allocated for urban use areas,
• A significant number of informal
• Lack of monitoring may result to develop regulations with emphasis on hazard
settlers have incomes that are
increased exposure due to resistant design and incorporate in the zoning
considered below the poverty
unplanned expansion; ordiannce
threshold;
Decision Area Igpit Coastal
-3 Area • Significant government resources • Establishment of Early Warning Systems and
• The severity of impact of floods to
will be allocated for rescue and formulation of contingency targeting exposed families
property and population range from
relief operations; in the area as a preparedness measure to lessen
high to very high;
impacts to population;
• Required post disaster
• Most of the families do not have
assistance for affected • Relocation of informal settlers (157 families)
access to early warning systems;
families/individuals far exceeds
available local financial • Identify additional lands for residential purposes to
resources; accommodate 157 families in other sites;
• Livelihood program for families below the poverty

threshold
FLOOD HAZARD
POPULATIO POPULATION
N EXPOSURE
RISK MAP MAP
LANDSLIDE HAZARD
POPULATION POPULATION
RISK MAP EXPOSURE MAP
DECISION AREAS
Decision
Areas Technical Findings
 Risk Category · 100% have high risk to landslide
• 6.83% of households live in makeshift housing.
• 99.64% live below the poverty threshold
• 2.16% are informal settlers
• 1.11% of the households have malnourished individuals
• 17.87% are young and old dependents
Buhay na • 50% of affected households have access to infrastructure-
Tubig related mitigation measures (IRMM) like evacuation
Households centers
near coastal • Most of the households have access to financial assistance
area like 4Ps.
• Majority of households have capacity and willingness to
retrofit or relocate
• Majority of households have access to information
• Its entire population is high risk to landslide
Decision Areas Technical Findings
Risk Category - 88.77% have high risk to flood
11.23% have moderate risk to flood
• 2.58% of households live in makeshift housing.
• 0.41% of the households have malnourished
Maluanluan individuals
residents • Majority of affected households have access to
along creeks infrastructure related
mitigation measures (IRMM) like evacuation centers
• Most of the households have access to financial
assistance like 4Ps.
• Majority of households have capacity and willingness
to retrofit or relocate
• Majority of households have access to information
Decision Development
Areas Technical Findings Implications
 Risk Category · 100% have high risk to landslide
• 6.83% of households live in makeshift
housing.
• 1.11% of the households have malnourished Death and injuries are
individuals
expected if no
• 50% of affected households have access to preemptive
infrastructure- preparation
Buhay na related mitigation measures (IRMM) like is implemented
Tubig evacuation centers
Households • Most of the households have access to
near coastal financial assistance like 4Ps.
area • Majority of households have capacity and
willingness to retrofit or relocate
• Majority of households have access to
information
• Its entire population is high risk to landslide
Merge Issues Matrix/Summary Matrix with
Sectoral Analysis Matrix (Housing Sub-
sector)
Technical Findings Implications Possible Policy Intervention
Issues and Concerns
Densification of Residential Increase inconvenience that
Areas may require use of air cooling Encourage green building
system to maintain design
convenience
*100% of households in Potential death and injuries Establishment of
Buhay na Tubig near coastal are expected if no preemptive relocation sites in low risk
area have high risk to preparation areas to relocate informal
landslide is implemented settlers
* Lifted from
CDRA
Merge Issues Matrix/Summary Matrix with
Sectoral Analysis Matrix (Infrastructure
sector)
Technical Findings Implications Possible Policy Intervention
Issues and Concerns
Poor Access to interior Increase Production cost Improvement of Matulatula-
barangays Poblacion Road
*100% of households in Buhay Potential death and injuries Construction of slope

na Tubig near coastal area are expected if no preemptive protection in Buhay na Tubig
have high risk to landslide preparation
is implemented
* Lifted from
CDRA
Contributing Factors
Merge Issues Matrix/Summary
not captured by
Matrix with Sectoral Analysis
Vulnerability Matrix (Environment sector)
indicators
• Development Technical Implications Possible Policy

Encroachment to Findings Intervention
Natural Waterways
(Maluanluan Creek…) Issues and
in urban areas Concerns
• River Clogging due to *Deforestation Landslide in Rehabilitation of
waste disposal due to Existing Buhay na Tubig Forest Area in
• River Siltation logging, Kaingin Upper Buhay na
• Deforestation resulting and mining Tubig
to landslide due to:
1. Logging
2. Kaingin
3. Mining *Identified in CDRA
Contributing Factors Merge Issues Matrix/Summary
not captured by Matrix with Sectoral Analysis
Vulnerability indicators Matrix (Environment sector)
• Development
Encroachment to Natural Technical Implications Possible Policy
Waterways (Maluanluan Findings Intervention
Creek…) in urban areas
Issues and
• River Clogging due to
waste disposal Concerns
• River Siltation *Development Aggravated Protect legal
• Deforestation resulting to Encroachment to Flooding river easement
landslide due to: natural as per water
1. Logging
2. Kaingin waterways code
3. Mining *Identified in CDRA
QUESTIONS?
CCVA ….
DRA….
END……………….
THANK YOU
Roma Mae C. Quijano, LPT, EnP
Planning Unit Head
Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
Central Visayas Region
0917 774 4947 / 032- 254 4564
rm.quijano@yahoo.com/ cvr@hlurb.gov.ph

Overview CDRA

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Overview CDRA

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Overview of Climate and Disaster

AN ACT STRENGTHENING THE PHILIPPINE

Assessment URBAN USE

natural hazards and CRITICAL POINT

CDRA as additional tool for

• Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is

• Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to

Risk is the expected losses (of lives, persons injured,

The unit of measure of risk could be number of fatality

• Likelihood of occurrence is the estimated period of

CLIMATE Forest POPULATION

IMPACT Agriculture URBAN USE LIFELINE

Emissions Scenarios Pathways

Socio-economic driven scenarios Emission-driven scenarios

Describes a wide range of potential futures for the

• Demography RADIATIVE FORCING

• Technology associated with any RCP)

cover the transportation, water

• CCVA and DRA

Climate Variables Hydrometreological Map/

⨍(Risk) = Likelihood of Occurrence x Severity of

Exposed Elements Characteristics

⨍(Risk) = Likelihood of Occurrence x Severity of

• Highly vulnerable to sea level rise and

• Livelihood program for families below the poverty

*100% of households in Buhay Potential death and injuries Construction of slope

• Development Technical Implications Possible Policy

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