Algebra 2: EXPLOG-2 Name: ___________________________

Disease Spread Date: _________________ Period: ___

PART 1 1. Go to my.cfisd.net
Access Explore Learning: 2. Go to Additional Resources
Search “Disease Spread” 3. Click on Explore Learning/Gizmos

When a person has a disease, his or her normal body functions are disrupted. Some
diseases, such as diabetes and most cancers, are not spread from one person to
another. But other diseases, such as the flu and strep throat, can be spread. These
diseases are known as infectious diseases. Infectious diseases are caused by
viruses, bacteria, and other agents known as pathogens.
In the Disease Spread Gizmo, you will be able to observe how various pathogens can spread through a group
of people. In the Gizmo, click Play ( ) and observe. Click the Pause button after a while.

1. Describe what happened on the SIMULATION pane:

when the first person the disease, more people got infected faster until everyone was infected

2. Look at the color key on the bottom right of the Gizmo. What is happening when a person changes color?
when a person changes color it shows that they were infected with a diseases. Depending on the color is the disease
they got. For example green means foodborne and blue is airborne

Activity A: Get the Gizmo ready:

• Click Reset ( ).
Person-to-person • On the CONTROLS tab under Active Diseases, turn off
transmission Foodborne and turn on Person to person.
• Set the Number of people to 5.

3. Select the SIMULATION tab on the left and the TABLE tab on the right. (You will want the table tab open to
answer question C.)
a. What does the purple person represent?
someone infected with the virus
b. Click PLAY and observe the simulation for a while. What do you notice?
in order to contract the disease you must come in direct contact with a carrier

c. How long did it take to infect five people?

68.5 hrs
4. Not all pathogens are equally infectious. Click Reset. Set the Number of people to 20. Under Probability
of transmission, select Low for Person to person.

On the SIMULATION tab, click Play. Record the time it takes to infect five people for three trials and find the
mean. Then repeat the experiment with a medium and high probability of transmission. (Note: For the
“Medium” setting, move the slider half-way between the Low and High positions.)

Transmission probability Time to infect five people, 3 trials (h) Mean time (h)
Low 7.1, 8.5, 11.1 8.9
Medium 8.7, 11, 4.3 8
High 10.5, 7.2, 3.4 7.0333333

What do you notice about the data? that as the transmission probability increased th time to infect 5 people decreased

How would the graphs of each situation be similar and different?

they would all be positive but the higher the transmission possibility the faster it increases

Activity B: Get the Gizmo ready:

Airborne • Click Reset.

transmission • On the CONTROLS tab under Active diseases, turn off Person to
person and turn on Airborne.

5. How would you expect the spread of an airborne disease to be similar to and different from the spread of a
foodborne disease and a person-to-person disease?
both spread a disease, however air borne diseases spread through air, while foodborne and person-to-person diseases spread
through contact with something carrying the disease
6. Run a few simulations with the airborne pathogen. What patterns do you notice in how the airborne
pathogen spreads?
the disease looks like it spreads randomly

Let’s Analyze

7. The data below shows a possible disease spread sample. Put the data in your graphing calculator Stat
Plot and look at the graph.
Time Number of a. Sketch the graph:
(hrs), Infected
x People, y
0 1
1 2
1.5 2
3 4
1.1216*1.461^x
b. Exponential regression function model: _______________
4 7
5 8
5.5 10 c. Is this an example of exponential growth or decay? Explain.
6 11 growth
6.5 15
d. How is your function model different than the function y = 2x?
7 16
8 25 it is less steep
9 37
e. If the same growth rate continues, how many people would be infected after
10.5 62 15 hrs. (assume a total population of 500 people)?

about 358 people would be infected

PART 2
Number of Number of
Coronavirus COVID-19, like many infectious diseases, has days since confirmed cases
had the tendency to spread exponentially. The table of values Dec 9, 2019 worldwide
below shows the number of worldwide cases of Coronavirus
each week from December 9, 2019 to January 27, 2020. Use 0 11
the table to determine an appropriate equation that models 7 23
the spread of this disease over the given time period. 14 49
21 102
28 400
35 488
42 1,003
49 4,024
56 6,028
(data source: Lancet Digital Health 2020)

8. Calculate an exponential regression in the form y = a • b x to determine the function to model the
y = 10.49 * 1.12^x
spread of the virus. Round decimals to the nearest hundredth: ________________________

9. .99
What is the correlation coefficient (r) ? __________. What does this tell you about the strength of
your model? it shows that the graph has a strong relationship between the days since Dec 9, 2019 and the number of
confirmed cases worldwide

10. Use your function model to answer the following questions:

a. If this trend continued, how many confirmed cases of Coronavirus would we have expected
165182
after the 12th week (day 84)? (Round to the nearest whole person.) ________________

b. If this trend had continued, how many confirmed cases would we have seen worldwide after
4.14E6
112 days (March 30, 2020)? ________________

11. Look it up: Possible website:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103040/cumulative-coronavirus-covid19-cases-number-worldwide-by-day/
277358
a. What was the actual case count on March 30, 2020? _____________

b. Why do you think that the reality is different from the early model prediction?
because in face of covid many people took different precautions such as quarantine or wearing face masks therefore the
total number infected for real was much less than the predicted amount
12. In the COVID-19 news: A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one which
remains between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline.

You may have heard the expression “growth factor” in describing the number of daily new COVID-
19 cases. Growth factor is the factor by which a quantity multiplies itself over time. If the number
1.07
of new cases is growing by 7% each day, the growth factor would be __________________.
13. Which of the following exponential function models shows a decrease in growth rate/factor? (circle)
x
1
y = 24 •1.05x y = 10.5 • 0.95x y = 17 •   y = 145 •1.2x y = 5 • 0.85x
2
14. Look at the graph below.
a. What do you notice about number of daily new cases (worldwide) over time?
it is decreasing

b. Circle or highlight the parts

of the graph that seem to
show a decline in the
number of daily new cases.

15. Look at the graph below.

a. What do you notice about confirmed cases over time?
they are less than the recovered and they have been evening out recently

b. What do you notice about the number of recoveries over time?

they are greater than the amount of confirmed cases