3.8.

Hypergeometric Distribution
The types of applications for the hypergeometric are very similar to those for the binomial distribution except that the
hypergeometric distribution does not require independence and is based on sampling done without replacement.

With hypergeometric experiment, we are interested in the probability of selecting x successes from the k items labeled
successes and n − x failures from the N − k items labeled failures when a random sample of size n is selected from N items.
Hypergeometric experiment possesses the following two properties:
1. A random sample of size n is selected without replacement from N items.
2. Of the N items, k may be classified as successes and N − k are classified as failures.

Hypergeometric Distribution
The probability distribution of the hypergeometric random variable X, the number of successes in a random sample of size
n selected from N items of which k are labeled success and N − k labeled failure, is

(𝐶𝑥𝑘 )(𝐶𝑛−𝑥
𝑁−𝑘 )
𝑓 (𝑥 ) = ℎ(𝑥; 𝑁, 𝑛, 𝑘 ) = , max{0, 𝑛 − (𝑁 − 𝑘)} ≤ x ≤ min{𝑛, 𝑘 }
𝐶𝑛𝑁

where
𝑁
(𝐶𝑛 ) = the total number of samples of size n chosen from N items which are assumed to be equally likely
𝑘
(𝐶𝑥 ) = the number of ways of selecting x successes from the k that are available, and for each of these ways n−x
𝑁−𝑘
failures can be chosen in (𝐶𝑛−𝑥 ) ways.
(𝐶𝑥𝑘 )(𝐶𝑛−𝑥
𝑁−𝑘 )
= the total number of favorable samples among the (𝐶𝑁
𝑛 ) possible samples

The mean and variance of the hypergeometric distribution h(x;N, n, k) are

𝑁−𝑛
μ = 𝐸 (𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝 and σ2 = 𝑉(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝) (𝑁−1 )
where 𝑝 = 𝑘/𝑁.

A binomial distribution can be used to approximate the hypergeometric distribution when n is small compared to N. In fact,
as a rule of thumb, the approximation is good when 𝑛/𝑁 ≤ 0.05.

Thus, the quantity 𝑘/𝑁 plays the role of the binomial parameter p. As a result, the binomial distribution may be viewed as
a large-population version of the hypergeometric distribution. The mean and variance then come from the formulas
𝑛𝑘 𝑘 𝑘
μ = 𝑛𝑝 = and σ2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 𝑛 ( ) (1 − ).
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁

Exercises: Solve the following problems. Show your complete solution and box your final answer.
1. A homeowner plants 6 bulbs selected at random from a box containing 5 tulip bulbs and 4 daffodil bulbs. What is the
probability that he planted 2 daffodil bulbs and 4 tulip bulbs?
Answer: 5/14

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LroFxcpwcG0

2. Suppose X has a hypergeometric distribution with N = 20, n = 4, and k = 4. Determine the following:
(a)𝑃(𝑋 = 1) (b)𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) (c)Determine the mean and variance of X.
Answer: (a) 0.4623 (b) 0.9866 (c) E(X) = 0.8, V(X) = 0.539

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqtjrhtBkuU

3. A company employs 800 men under the age of 55. Suppose that 30% carry a marker on the male chromosome that
indicates an increased risk for high blood pressure.
(a) If 10 men in the company are tested for the marker in this chromosome, what is the probability that exactly 1 man has
the marker?
(b) If 10 men in the company are tested for the marker in this chromosome, what is the probability that more than 1 has the
marker? Answer: (a) 0.1201 (b) 0.8523

https://youtu.be/tm-93MKft3g

4. If 7 cards are dealt from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that
(a) exactly 2 of them will be face cards?
(b) at least 1 of them will be a queen?
Answer: (a) 0.3246; (b) 0.4496

REZEL A. STO. TOMAS, ECE 1

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd7autqy6Jw

3.9. The Poisson Distribution

Experiments yielding numerical values of a random variable X, the number of outcomes occurring during a given time
interval or in a specified region, are called Poisson experiments. The given time interval may be of any length, such as a
minute, a day, a week, a month, or even a year. The specified region could be a line segment, an area, a volume, or perhaps
a piece of material.

A Poisson experiment is derived from the Poisson process and possesses the following properties:
1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or specified region of space is independent of the number that
occur in any other disjoint time interval or region. In this sense we say that the Poisson process has no memory.

2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short time interval or in a small region is proportional to
the length of the time interval or the size of the region and does not depend on the number of outcomes occurring outside
this time interval or region.

3. The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short time interval or fall in such a small region is
negligible.

The mean number of outcomes is computed from 𝜇 = λ𝑡 = λ, where t is the specific “time,” “distance,” “area,” or
“volume” of interest. Since the probabilities depend on λ, the rate of occurrence of outcomes, we shall denote them by
𝑝(𝑥; λ𝑡).

Poisson Distribution
The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X, representing the number of outcomes occurring in a given
time interval or specified region denoted by t, is
𝑒 −λ𝑡 (λ𝑡)𝑥 𝑒 −λ (λ)𝑥
𝑝(𝑥; λ𝑡) = = 𝑥 = 0,1,2, … … .,
𝑥! 𝑥!

where λ is the average number of outcomes per unit time, distance, area, or volume and e = 2.71828 . . . .

If X is a Poisson random variable with parameter λ, then

μ = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜆𝑡 and σ2 = 𝑉(𝑋) = 𝜆𝑡

Exercises: Solve the following problems. Show your complete solution and box your final answer.
1. Suppose X has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 4. Determine the following probabilities:
(a)𝑃(𝑋 = 0) (b) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) (c) 𝑃(𝑋 = 4)
Answer: (a) 0.0183 (b) 0.2381 (c) 0.1954

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5oDyYnDgKw

2. The number of cracks in a section of interstate high-way that are significant enough to require repair is assumed to follow
a Poisson distribution with a mean of two cracks per mile.
(a) What is the probability that there are no cracks that require repair in 5 miles of highway?
(b) What is the probability that at least one crack requires repair in ½ mile of highway?
Answer: (a) 4.54 × 10−5 (b) 0.6321
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4HZ396lBAs
3. An automobile manufacturer is concerned about a fault in the braking mechanism of a particular model.
The fault can, on rare occasions, cause a catastrophe at high speed. The distribution of the number of cars per year that will
experience the catastrophe is a Poisson random variable with λ = 5.
(a) What is the probability that at most 3 cars per year will experience a catastrophe?
(b) What is the probability that more than 1 car per year will experience a catastrophe?
Answer: (a) 0.2650; (b) 0.9596
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD0E5BlyAK8

REZEL A. STO. TOMAS, ECE 2