BAYES THEOREM

VAMSI KRISHNA KARNATAPU

MARC H 10, 2021

• What is Bayes’s Theorem?

Bayes, is a mathematical formula for determining conditional probability. Conditional probability

is the likelihood of an outcome occurring, based on a previous outcome occurring. Bayes'
theorem provides a way to revise existing predictions or theories (update probabilities) given new
or additional evidence.

P(B | A) is a conditional probability. Likelihood of event B occurring when event A is true

P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities observing events A and B respectively .

 PROBABILITY OF FISH SURVIVAL

• The survival of this fish depends only on its
food availability. No other external factors
effect its survival

• The survival of the fish now depends

additionally on that sharp eating the fish
along with food availability.

Bayes Theorem can determine the survival

probability of the fish by knowing probability
of shark eating the fish.

 WHY IS IT IMPORTANT

• World is developing into automated.

• How computer can know what it is

doing is right?

• The most important theorem used in

decision making

 IMPORTANT APPLICATIONS OF BAYES THEOREM IN TODAY’S WORLD

• Many apps that predict stock market

daily

• Self Driving cars

• Hate speech detection

• Efficiency of medical tests

• Text analysis

• Weather Predictions

 HOW SELF DRIVIG CARS ACTUALLY WORK

the formula is a simple one-liner: Initial

Beliefs + Recent Objective Data = A New
and Improved Belief.

The Aim is to predict the trajectory of

every machine that the sensors sees.

driverless cars update information

gleaned from maps with new road and
traffic data from sensors mounted atop
the vehicles. Google hopes that robotic
cars will one day halve the number of
road fatalities, cut energy consumption,
fit more densely onto crowded roads
and free commuters for more productive
activities.

• Currently Scientists are using Bayes Theorem in predicting the shape of corona
virus. Bayes Theorem is also used in checking correctness of test results.
 REFERENCES

• https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7315940/

• Joyce, James, "Bayes’ Theorem", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Spring 2019
Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2019/entries/
bayes-theorem/

• https://intro-to-self-driving-cars.readthedocs.io/
7.%20Vehicle%20Motion%20and%20Control/
1.%20Understanding%20the%20Derivative%20-%20more%20insights/

• https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bayes-s-theorem-what-s-the-big-deal/

• https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-outbreak/covid-19-reverend-thomas-bayes-
and-a-big-buy-call-on-india