Presented By: Patrick M.

Bowen, President
Bowen National Research
April 2021
www.bowennational.com
614-833-9300
 Scope of Work
•Primary Study Area (PSA):Wilmington
Established •Secondary Study Area (SSA): Balance of County
Study Areas •County Study Area (CSA): New Hanover County, NC

Demographic & •Population, Household and Income Trends through 2025

Economic •10 Years of Economic & Employment Trends
Analysis •In-Depth Interviews with Local Economic Development Representatives

•Rental Housing Survey (Multifamily Apartments and Non-conventional Rentals)

Housing Supply •For-Sale Housing, both Historical Sales and Active Listings
Analysis •Senior Care Housing (Nursing Homes, Assisted Living, Etc.)

•Public Schools, Higher Education, Community Attributes

Other Housing •Public Transportation, Commuter Data and Migration Patterns
Market Factors •Residential Blight, Qualified Opportunity Zones & Regional Competitiveness
•Special Needs Populations (Homeless, Ex-Offenders, & Elderly)

Housing Gap •Provided Estimated Number of Housing Units Needed by Tenure and Income
Estimates

Conclusions •Provided Action Plan with Possible Housing Strategies

 Geographic Study Areas

• County Study
Area (CSA):
New Hanover
County, NC

• Primary Study
Area (PSA):
Wilmington,
NC

• Secondary
Study Area
(SSA): Balance
of County
Overall Population and Household Demographic Trends
New Hanover County’s rate of population and household growth has outpaced the
state over the past 10 years; A trend that is expected to continue through 2025.
Population Trends (2000-2025)
PSA SSA CSA North Carolina
POPULATION
40.0%
36.4%
County population base
35.0%
30.0% will experience growth
25.0% 26.4%
between 2020 and 2025:
20.0%
15.0%
18.7% 18.5%
16.5%
19.2% 17.8%
18,888 people (7.9%);
10.0%
12.6%
8.7% 7.9% Wilmington: 8,959
7.2%
Balance of County: 9,929
5.0% 5.7%

0.0%
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2025

Household Growth Trends (2000-2025)

HOUSEHOLDS
PSA SSA CSA North Carolina
Over 8,000 households will
40.0% 307 be added in the county
36.3%
35.0%
during the next five years
30.0%
25.0% 26.2% (8.0%);
20.0% 19.0% 19.6% 18.6% 17.8%
Wilmington: 4,127
15.0% 17.1%
12.3%
Balance of County: 3,931
10.0%
8.6% 8.0%
7.5%
5.0% 5.7%
0.0%
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2025
 Projected Household Growth by Age
Mirroring national trends, New Hanover County is expected to experience
notable growth among aging Millennials (ages 35 to 44) and Seniors (ages 65
and older) between 2020 and 2025.
Change in Household Heads by Age (2020-2025)
PSA SSA
326
<25
98
-102
25-34
74
986
35-44
760
288
45-54
336
49
55-64
245
1,079
65-74
877
1,501
75+
1,541

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

 Shares of Households by Income & Tenure (2020)
Share of Renter Households by Income (2020)
• Majority (60.6%) of PSA SSA
25.0%
current (2020) renter
households in PSA 20.0%

20.9%
have incomes below

17.6%
15.0%

16.0%

15.8%
15.4%

15.4%
$40,000; While

14.0%

12.9%
10.0%

11.6%

10.5%
distribution of

9.1%

9.1%

8.4%

8.3%
8.1%
5.0%

6.9%
households in SSA are 0.0%
distributed more evenly <$10,000 $10k-
$19,999
$20k-
$29,999
$30k-
$39,999
$40k-
$49,999
$50k-
$59,999
$60k-
$99,999
$100,000+

Share of Owner Households by Income (2020)

• Owner households by PSA SSA
income distribution 50.0%

very similar between 40.0%

41.7%

39.9%
PSA and SSA, with 30.0%

majority among

27.0%
20.0%
households earning

21.0%
8.2%
7.5%
7.4%
7.3%
7.2%

6.9%
6.0%
5.1%

5.0%
4.3%

10.0%
3.4%

above $60,000
2.1%

0.0%
<$10,000 $10k- $20k- $30k- $40k- $50k- $60k- $100,000+
$19,999 $29,999 $39,999 $49,999 $59,999 $99,999
Projected Renter Household Growth by Income and Size
Renter Households by Income (2020-2025)
• Virtually all renter PSA SSA
<$20,000 -56
household income 2
$20k-$29,999 267
segments are projected to 127
$30k-$39,999 151
grow, leading to a need 78
$40k-$49,999 208
for a variety of product -13
$50k-$59,999 131
by affordability level 89
$60k-$99,999 645
380
$100,000+ 390
• Growth is expected to 150
occur among households -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
earning above $60,000
Change in Renter Household Size (2020-2025)
annually, leading to need
for high-end product. CSA North Carolina
10.0% 146
• Growth by size expected 8.0% 9.2%
to increase demand for 1,321
812
smaller unit types 6.0% 6.9%
6.3%
(studio to 2-bedroom), 271
4.0% 4.7% 4.7%
though large-family 4.3% 4.0% 3.7%
3.2%
growth will require 2.0% 3
larger units 0.1%
0.0%
1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4-Persons 5-Persons
 Projected Owner Household Growth by Income and Size
Change in Owner Households by Income (2020-2025)
PSA SSA
• Most owner household <$20,000 44
119
income segments projected to $20k-$29,999 -22 7
grow, though majority of $30k-$39,999 207
251
owner growth expected to $40k-$49,999 250
123
occur among higher income $50k-$59,999 129
households (above $100,000) 255
$60k-$99,999 285
411
$100,000+ 1,392
2,056
-250 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250

Change in Persons per Owner Household (2020-2025)

• Most household sizes
CSA North Carolina
expected to increase, 16.0%
477
though 1- & 2-person HH 14.0%
14.4%
growth (some from empty 12.0%
1,546 2,455
nesters) will increase 10.0%
9.7% 10.0%
demand for smaller units, 8.0% 545 489
possibly condominiums 6.0% 7.6%
6.7% 6.6% 6.7% 6.2% 6.6%
4.0% 5.9%
2.0%

0.0%
1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4-Persons 5-Persons
Housing Quality, Conditions and Affordability
 Other Housing Factors
Drive-Times Commuting Public Transit Opportunity Zones

Employment Special Needs

Blight Public Schools Higher Education Regional Analysis

 Multifamily Rental Housing Overview
PSA (Wilmington)
Total Vacant Occ. • 17,381 multifamily rental
Project Type Projects Units Units Rate units surveyed in the county
Market-rate 59 11,627 553 95.2% within 108 projects
Market-rate/Tax Credit 1 96 35 63.5% • 711 vacant units county-
Tax Credit 13 1,251 34 97.3% wide; Surveyed properties
Tax Credit/Subsidized 8 691 9 98.7% are 95.9% occupied (PSA:
Government-Subsidized 11 1,079 3 99.7% 95.7% vs. SSA: 97.1%)
Total 92 14,744 634 95.7%
• While most vacancies are
SSA (Balance of County) among market-rate supply,
Total Vacant additional units will be
Project Type Projects Units Units Occupancy needed to meet growth
Market-rate 12 2,398 77 96.8%
• 13 of the 17 Tax Credit
Tax Credit 4 239 0 100.0%
projects maintain a wait
Total 16 2,637 77 97.1% list of up to 150 households
• Only 8 vacant subsidized
units identified, resulting in
very low 0.5% vacancy
rate; Most properties w/
wait lists; Approximately
2,321 people on waiting list
for housing vouchers
 Non-Conventional Rentals
• Non-conventional rentals
consist of houses,
duplexes, mobile
homes, etc.

• Non-conventional rentals
are operating with
minimum availability
and relatively high
rents

• Of the available non- Non-Student Rentals Student Rentals

conventional rentals Number Percent Number Percent
there is a vacancy rate Rent of Units of Units of Units of Units
Less than $500 0 - 0 -
of just 0.7%, with most
$500 to $999 10 9.8% 2 6.1%
rents above $1,500 $1,000 to $1,499 26 25.5% 6 18.2%
(requiring household $1,500 to $1,999 44 43.1% 18 54.5%
income of at least $60k) $2,000 + 22 21.6% 7 21.2%
Total 102 100.0% 35 100.0%
Median Rent $1,650 - $1,595 -
 For-Sale Housing Supply Overview
Sold/Currently Available For-Sale Housing Supply
PSA (Wilmington)
• 21,681 homes sold in county
Status Homes Median Price
between 2016 and 2020 Sold* 8,882 $248,000
• Median sales price in PSA $248k Available** 354 $399,900
SSA (Balance of County)
vs. $270k in SSA
Status Homes Median Price
Sold* 12,799 $270,730
• 931 homes available in county Available** 577 $399,000
CSA (New Hanover County)
• Median list price in PSA & SSA Status Homes Median Price
nearly identical ~$399k Sold* 21,681 $262,000
Available** 931 $399,900

Sold Available
 For-Sale Housing – Historical Trends

Annual Median Sales Price (2016-2020)

For-Sale Market Metrics are CSA PSA SSA
Reflective of a High Level of Demand $295,000
$285,000
$275,000
• Median price of homes sold within $265,000
the CSA increased at an average $255,000
annual rate of 5.2% $245,000
$235,000

• Based on ACS data, the median $225,000

$215,000
household income increased 5.8% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

between 2016 & 2019, median home

Sales History by Price
prices increased by 16.5% during this
PSA SSA
time. Growth in home prices 6,000

outpacing income growth. 5,000

5,251
4,000
• Largest share of sales at $300k+ 3,000
3,198
2,000 2,278 2,349 2,166
• Average Number of Days on Market 1,000 511 1,274 1,329 1,369
are low (PSA=62, SSA=68); 0
66 689
1,201

Reflective of high level of demand Up to

$99,999
$100k-
$149,999
$150k-
$199,999
$200k-
$249,999
$250k-
$299,999
$300,000+
 For-Sale Housing – Available Listings
• 931 homes available in
Available For-Sale Housing by Price county (PSA 354 vs. SSA
(As of June 30, 2020)
CSA (New Hanover County) 577) equates to 1.6% of
Number Percent of Average Days supply (PSA 1.3%; SSA
List Price Available Supply on Market 1.8%)
Up to $99,999 0 0.0% -
$100,000 to $149,999 20 2.1% 66
$150,000 to $199,999 38 4.1% 67
• Only 58 homes available
$200,000 to $249,999 90 9.7% 64 (6.2%) priced < $200k has
$250,000 to $299,999 99 10.6% 68 avg. DOM < 67 days
$300,000+ 684 73.5% 136
Total 931 100.0% 118
• Nearly three-quarters of
Available For-Sale Housing by Price
listings priced at $300k+
PSA SSA
450
400
421
350
300
250
200
58 Homes 263
150
100 64 73
50 17 22 16 26 26
0 0 3
0
Up to $99,999 $100k- $150k- $200k- $250k- $300,000+
$149,999 $199,999 $249,999 $299,999
 Senior Care Housing Supply
Surveyed Senior Care Facilities - CSA (New Hanover County)
National Base Monthly
Beds/ Occupancy Occupancy Rent Range
Project Type Projects Units Vacant Rate Rate*
Independent Living 2 382 34 91.1% 91.5% $2,728 - $7,904
Multi-Unit Assisted 1 222 21 90.5% N/A $2,870 - $5,825
Adult Care Homes 8 642 119 81.5% 90.7% $2,400 - $9,023
Nursing Homes 10 795** 155 80.5% 88.0% $6,226 - $10,129
Total 21 1,819 329 85.2% 89.7% $2,400 - $10,129

• 21 facilities surveyed in the county, most

adult care homes and nursing homes
• County occupancy levels below
national averages (CSA 85.2% vs.
National 89.7%)
• COVID-19 has adversely impacted
occupancy of senior care housing
• Large and growing base of seniors will
increase demand for senior housing
Housing Gaps by Affordability & Tenure
Overall County
New Hanover County Housing Needs
Estimates (2020 to 2030)
Affordability Level Housing
Gaps
Percent
(Units)
Type AMHI Annual Income Rent/Price Range
≤ 30% < $23,500 < $575 2,787
31%-50% $23,501-$39,000 $576-$975 1,968
10,776
Rentals

51%-60% $39,001-$47,000 $976-$1,174 1,231

Rental
61%-80% $47,001-$63,000 $1,175-$1,575 1,431
81%-120% $63,001-$94,000 $1,576-$2,349 1,796
Units
121%+ $94,001+ $2,350+ 1,563
≤ 30% < $23,500 < $74,000 1,228
31%-50% $23,501-$39,000 $74,001-$123,000 862
For-Sale

13,017
51%-60% $39,001-$47,000 $123,001-$148,000 1,165
61%-80% $47,001-$63,000 $148,001-$199,000 1,471
For-Sale
81%-120% $63,001-$94,000 $199,001-$296,000 3,659
Units
121%+ $94,001+ $296,001+ 4,632
 Action Plan Recommendations
Goal Setting
 Outline Overall Purpose
 Establish Housing Production Goals
 Establish Housing Funding Goals

Education & Outreach

 Identify & Retain Expertise to Advise/Lead
Housing Initiatives
 Identify & Establish Housing Partnerships
 Develop a Housing Education Program
 Learn from Others
 Develop a Marketing Plan to Attract
Developers & Investors

Housing Preservation & Development Tools
 Consider Establishing a Land Bank
 Explore Creation of Housing Trust Fund
 Explore Means of Securing Additional Housing
Funds
 Consider Potential Local Zoning Code Changes
Monitor Market Metrics & Keep
Community Informed
 Periodically Assess Key Market Data
to Adjust Goals & Priorities
 Keep Community Informed &
Engaged in Housing Efforts