Name: M Zahid Hossain

NSU ID: 081-370-030

Class Number: MGT 314

Section Number: 2

Assignment Type & Number: HW-3

Due Date: 20 Feb, 2011

 ANSWER TO THE QUESTION NO 1
a)
Blueberry Muffies
t A (t) F(t) F(t)=A(t-3)
Day Blueberry Muffies Naïve NaN
1 30 NaN
2 34 30 NaN
3 32 34 30
4 34 32 34
5 35 34 32
6 30 35 34
7 34 30 35
8 36 34 30
9 29 36 34
10 31 29 36
11 35 31 29
12 31 35 31
13 37 31 35
14 34 37 31
15 33 34 37
33 34
33
0

Cienamon Buns
t A (t) F(t) F(t)=A(t-3)
Day Cienamon Buns Naïve NaN
1 18 NaN
2 17 18 NaN
3 19 17 18
4 19 19 17
5 22 19 19
6 23 22 19
7 23 23 22
8 25 23 23
9 24 25 23
10 26 24 25
11 27 26 24
12 28 27 26
13 29 28 27
14 31 29 28
15 33 31 29
33 31
 33
0

Cupcakes
t A (t) F(t) F(t)=A(t-3)
Day Cupcakes Naïve NaN
1 45 NaN
2 26 45 NaN
3 27 26 45
4 23 27 26
5 22 23 27
6 48 22 23
7 29 48 22
8 20 29 48
9 14 20 29
10 18 14 20
11 47 18 14
12 26 47 18
13 27 26 47
14 24 27 26
15 22 24 27
22 24
22
0

b)

The use of sales imply that as they are bakery, it is easier to forecast by the number of sales rather demand
easy for a company to tarck sales, rather doing research on demand, or track it.
 TION NO 1

ffies
F(t) = A(t-1) + (A(t-1) – A(t-2))

38
30 Stable time series data F(t) = A(t-1)
36
36 Seasonal variations F(t) = A(t-n)
25
38 Data with trends F(t) = A(t-1) + (A(t-1) – A
38
22
33
39
27
43
31
32
-33
0
0
0

ns
F(t) = A(t-1) + (A(t-1) – A(t-2))

16
21
19
25
24
23
27
23
28
28
29
30
33
35
-33
 0
0

F(t) = A(t-1) + (A(t-1) – A(t-2))

7
28
19
21
74
10
11
8
22
76
5
28
21
20
-22
0
0

sier to forecast by the number of sales rather demand. Because, it is

rch on demand, or track it.
t) = A(t-1) + (A(t-1) – A(t-2))
 ANSWER TO THE QUESTION NO 7
a)
Week Number
1 220
2 245
3 280
4 275 Trend line
5 300 600
6 310
7 350 f(x) = 19.078431372549 x + 209.921568627451
500 R² = 0.985333160454903

Number of freight car loadings

8 380
9 400 400
10 380
11 420 300
12 450
13 480 200
14 475
15 500 100
16 510
17 525 0
18 541 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Week

b)

Week Number Number

t t sqare y ty
1 1 220 220
2 4 245 490
3 9 280 840
4 16 275 1100
5 25 300 1500
6 36 310 1860
7 49 350 2450
8 64 380 3040
9 81 400 3600
10 100 380 3800
11 121 420 4620 b 19.07843
12 144 450 5400 a 209.9216
13 169 480 6240
14 196 475 6650 The trend Equation y = 19.078x + 209.92
15 225 500 7500
 16 256 510 8160 The next two forecasts are:
17 289 525 8925
18 324 541 9738 F20 19.078*20+ 209.92
171 2109 7041 76133 F21 19.078*21 + 209.92

C), as in the week 21st we have got 610, so may be between week 27-28 it will be 800. Because, if for about every
 Trend line

9 x + 209.921568627451
03

Trend line
Linear (Trend line)

10 12 14 16 18 20
Week

y = 19.078x + 209.92
 19.078*20+ 209.92 = 591.48
19.078*21 + 209.92 = 610.558

. Because, if for about every four weeks it increases 100.

 ANSWER TO THE QUESTION NO 15

Day Number Served MA3 MA4 MA5 MA6 MA7

1 80 160
2 75
3 78 140
4 95 77.67
5 130 82.67 82.00 120
6 136 101.00 94.50 91.60
7 40 120.33 109.75 102.80 99.00 100
8 82 102.00 100.25 95.80 92.33 90.57
9 77 86.00 97.00 96.60 93.50 90.86 80
10 80 66.33 83.75 93.00 93.33 91.14
11 94 79.67 69.75 83.00 90.83 91.43 60
12 125 83.67 83.25 74.60 84.83 91.29
13 135 99.67 94.00 91.60 83.00 90.57 40
14 42 118.00 108.50 102.20 98.83 90.43
15 84 100.67 99.00 95.20 92.17 90.71 20
16 77 87.00 96.50 96.00 93.33 91.00
17 83 67.67 84.50 92.60 92.83 91.00
0
18 96 81.33 71.50 84.20 91.00 91.43 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
19 135 85.33 85.00 76.40 86.17 91.71
20 140 104.67 97.75 95.00 86.17 93.14
21 37 123.67 113.50 106.20 102.50 93.86
22 87 104.00 102.00 98.20 94.67 93.14
23 82 88.00 99.75 99.00 96.33 93.57
24 98 68.67 86.50 96.20 96.17 94.29
25 103 89.00 76.00 88.80 96.50 96.43
26 144 94.33 92.50 81.40 91.17 97.43
27 144 115.00 106.75 102.80 91.83 98.71
28 48 130.33 122.25 114.20 109.67 99.29
160

140

120

100
Number Served
MA3
80 MA4
MA5
MA6
60
MA7

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
 ANSWER TO THE QUESTION NO 24

Period Fertilizer Sales (tons)

T T^2 X X^2
1 1 1.6 2.56
2 4 1.3 1.69
3 9 1.8 3.24
4 16 2 4
5 25 2.2 4.84
6 36 1.6 2.56
7 49 1.5 2.25
8 64 1.3 1.69
9 81 1.7 2.89
10 100 1.2 1.44
11 121 1.9 3.61
12 144 1.4 1.96
13 169 1.7 2.89
14 196 1.6 2.56
Total 105 1015 22.8 38.18

a) Correlation, r 0.945677375098561
r^2 0.894305697773304

r^2= 0.8943 > 0.80, which indicates that the independent variable is a good predictor of values of the dependent va
Therefore, it appears that, relationship between these variables will yield good predictions.

14

12

10

8
Fertilizer S
Number o
6

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
4

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
O THE QUESTION NO 24

Number of Mowers Sold (Six-week lag)

Y Y^2 XY TX
10 100 16 1.6
8 64 10.4 2.6
11 121 19.8 5.4
12 144 24 8
12 144 26.4 11
8 64 12.8 9.6
8 64 12 10.5
7 49 9.1 10.4
10 100 17 15.3
6 36 7.2 12
11 121 20.9 20.9
8 64 11.2 16.8
10 100 17 22.1
9 81 14.4 22.4
130 1252 218.2 168.6

ariable is a good predictor of values of the dependent variable.

bles will yield good predictions.

Fertilizer Sales (tons)

Number of Mowers Sold (Six-week lag)

8 9 10 11 12 13 14
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9551477732
R Square 0.9123072687
Adjusted R Square 0.9043352022
Standard Error 0.5943263991
Observations 13

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 40.42222975263 40.422229753 114.438 3.7536472E-07
Residual 11 3.885462555066 0.3532238686
Total 12 44.30769230769

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept -0.8986784141 0.961132859212 -0.9350199668 0.36985 -3.0141175741 1.216761
1.6 6.2114537445 0.580641594876 10.697569377 3.754E-07 4.93347021084 7.489437
 Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-3.0141175741 1.2167607459
4.9334702108 7.4894372781
 ANSWER TO THE QUESTION NO 27

Alpha 0.3

Period Demand Predicted D-P |D-P| Cumulative |D-P|

1 129 124 5 5 5
2 194 200 -6 6 11
3 156 150 6 6 17
4 91 94 -3 3 20
5 85 80 5 5 25
6 132 140 -8 8
7 126 128 -2 2
8 126 124 2 2
9 95 100 -5 5
10 149 150 -1 1
11 98 94 4 4
12 85 80 5 5
13 137 140 -3 3
14 134 128 6 6
61

a) The sum of absolute error through the 5th period is 25. Hence, the initial MAD is 25/5 = 5.
 MAD(t)=MAD(t-1) +@(|D-P|-MAD(t-1)) Cumulative D-P Tracking Signal

5 7 1.40
5.9 -1 -0.17
4.1 -3 -0.73
4.1 -1 -0.24
5 -6 -1.20
3.8 -7 -1.84
4.7 -3 -0.64
5 2 0.40
4.4 -1 -0.23
5.3 5 0.94

5. Hence, the initial MAD is 25/5 = 5.