SUNFLOWER OIL REFINERY COMPANY

Known inputs

Annual costs percentage 6.5%

Annual revenue percentage 6%
Annual tax rate percentage 30%

Uncertain inputs

Annual production capacity (Tons ) 22500

Investment cost -R 47,500,000
Crude oil (Variable cost) /ton product R 14,050
Variable cost /ton product R 440
Packaging (Variable cost) /ton product R 660
Distribution (Variable cost) /ton product R 580
Total variable costs /ton product R 15,730
Fixed costs /ton product R 575
Selling price /750 ml bottle R 12.2
Yield 750 ml bottles/Ton 1454
Annual Revenue (Income returned by an investment, turnover) R 399,123,000

DCF Calculations Historical

Year number 0
Year 2021
Investment cost -R 47,500,000
Revenue
Fixed costs
Variable costs
Net profit
Taxes
Cash flow -R 47,500,000

Output
IRR 46.1%
COST DRIVERS CAPITAL
OVERALL COSTS
INCOME

Sensitivity of IRR
70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%
IRR

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
-50% 0% 50%

Cost driver

CAPITAL OVERALL COSTS INCOME

Sensitivity of IRR

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%
IRR

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

CAPITAL OVERALL COSTS INC

 40.0%

IRR
30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

Cost driver CAPITAL OVERALL COSTS INC

Projected Financials

1 2 3 4
2022 2023 2024 2025

R 399,123,000 R 423,070,380 R 448,454,603 R 475,361,879

R 12,937,500 R 13,778,438 R 14,674,036 R 15,627,848
R 353,925,000 R 376,930,125 R 401,430,583 R 427,523,571
R 32,260,500 R 32,361,818 R 32,349,984 R 32,210,460
R 9,678,150 R 9,708,545 R 9,704,995 R 9,663,138
R 22,582,350 R 22,653,272 R 22,644,989 R 22,547,322
 IRR AT DIFFERENT % VALUES

-50% 0% 50%
48.9% 46.1% 43.6%
55.9% 46.1% 30.7%
33.9% 46.1% 57.4%

50%

0% 40% 60%

OVERALL COSTS INCOME

0% 40% 60%

OVERALL COSTS INCOME

 5 6 7 8
2026 2027 2028 2029

R 503,883,592 R 534,116,607 R 566,163,604 R 600,133,420

R 16,643,658 R 17,725,496 R 18,877,653 R 20,104,701
R 455,312,603 R 484,907,922 R 516,426,937 R 549,994,688
R 31,927,330 R 31,483,189 R 30,859,013 R 30,034,031
R 9,578,199 R 9,444,957 R 9,257,704 R 9,010,209
R 22,349,131 R 22,038,232 R 21,601,309 R 21,023,821
Assuming that from range given @0% median value @-50% minimum value from range and
at 0 % -R 47,500,000
at -50% -R 45,000,000
at 50% -R 50,000,000

Assuming that from range given @0% costs is the costs calculated using median values @ -50

at 0 % R 366,862,500
at -50% R 358,875,000
at 50% R 374,850,000

Assuming that from range given @0% income is the income calculated using median values

at 0 % R 399,123,000
at -50% R 392,580,000
at 50% R 405,666,000
 9 10
2030 2031

R 636,141,425 R 674,309,911
R 21,411,506 R 22,803,254
R 585,744,343 R 623,817,725
R 28,985,576 R 27,688,931
R 8,695,673 R 8,306,679
R 20,289,903 R 19,382,252
0% minimum value from range and @50% maximum value from range.

lculated using median values @ -50% costs calculated using minimum values @ 50% costs calculated using maximum values

me calculated using median values @ -50% income calculated using minimum values @ 50% income calculated using maxim
lculated using maximum values and same base value for production (median) .

ncome calculated using maximum values and same base (median) values for yield and production only changing selling price
only changing selling price.