2021-03-09

ENIN 433
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis

Quantitative Aspects of System

Analysis

Golam Kabir, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor
Industrial Systems Engineering
University of Regina, SK, Canada

Battery Light Light

A B

Switch

Lights Fail
Lights Fail
Off
Off
G1
G1

BulbA Bulb B Lights Fail Switch Battery

Off Off Off Fails Open Fails
G2 G3 G2 C D

BulbA Power Bulb B Power BulbA Bulb B

Fails Fails Fails Fails Fails Fails
A B G5 A
G4 B

Switch Battery Switch Battery

Fails Open Fails Fails Open Fails

C D C D

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System Success or Failure

System success or failure can be described by a combination of top
events defined by an OR combination of all system hazards into a
composite fault tree

Probabilistic Parameters to Describe the System

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Probabilistic Parameters to Describe the System

Probabilistic Parameters to Describe the System

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Probabilistic Parameters to Describe the System

Simple Systems

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FT Quantification

P=PA ● PB ● PC ● PD
Note: AND gate reduces
PT=16x10-24
probability

A B C D

PA=2x10-6 PB=2x10-6 PC=2x10-6 PD=2x10-6

P=PA + PB + PC + PD – (PAB + PAC + PAD + PBC + PBD + PCD) + (PABC + PABD + PACD + PBCD) – (PABCD)

PT=8x10-6

Note: OR gate increases

A B C D
probability and
math complexity
PA=2x10-6 PB=2x10-6 PC=2x10-6 PD=2x10-6

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FT Quantification

PA=8x10-6

P=4x10-6 P=4x10-6

A B C D

PA=2x10-6 PB=2x10-6 PC=2x10-6 PD=2x10-6

P=8x10-12

P=4x10-12 P=4x10-12

A B C D

PA=2x10-6 PB=2x10-6 PC=2x10-6 PD=2x10-6

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Voting Gate
The fault tree of Figure 8.6 appears in a voting system that produces an
output if m or more components out of n generate a command signal. A
common application of the m-out-of-n system is in safety systems, where it is
desirable to avoid expensive plant shutdowns by a spurious signal from a
single safety monitor.

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Voting Gate
As an example, consider the two-out-of-three shutdown device of Figure 8.7.
Plant shutdown occurs when two out of three safety monitors generate
shutdown signals. Consider a case where the plant is normal and requires no
shutdown. An unnecessary shutdown occurs if two or more safety monitors
produce spurious signals. Denote by B; a false signal from monitor i.

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Example-Two-out-of-three system
Compare the unavailability Qs(t) for the two out- of-three configuration of
Figure 8.9 and the OR configuration of Figure 8.10.

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Example-Simple combination of gates

Calculate the unavailability of the system described by the following fault tree

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Example- Tail-gas quench and clean-up system

The system in Figure 8.12 is designed to: 1) decrease the temperature of a hot gas
by a water quench, 2) saturate the gas with water vapor, and 3) remove solid
particles entrained in the gas.
A hot "tail" gas from a
calciner is first cooled by
contacting it with water
supplied by quench pumps B
or C. It then passes to a
prescrubber where it is
contacted with more fresh
water supplied by feedwater
pump D. Water from the
bottom of the prescrubber
is either recirculated by
pumps E or F or removed as
a purge stream.
Mesh pad G removes particulates from the gases that flow to an absorber after they
leave the prescrubber.

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Example- Tail-gas quench and clean-up system

Calculate the system unavailability Qs(t) using the following data:

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