Leadership Assignment Block 3

Scenario Planning

Future of MBA Applications

Decrease or Increase?

2004 2010 2016

Group 5 Members:

Pramit Chaudhuri

Geoffrey Nyamboga

Michel van den Bosch

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Amit Munshi
 Scenario Planning
Step 1: Define the future you want to explore, and agree on the scope.

Business scope: Future of MBA Applications

Time horizon: 2016
Geographical scope: Worldwide
Other dimensions: Economic downturn, Government Policies

Step 2: Brainstorm, log and discover the following:

The Main Uncertainties:

Job Market Scenario Emergence of Online MBAs.

Growth of Competitive Courses Failure of MBA Graduates in the
Capacity of B-schools to increase Real World Scenario.
thei r intake Focus on Interdisciplinary
Quality of the MBA Curriculum. Cours es.
Return of Inv estment Declining Corporate Support for
opportunities for students. financing MBA
Duration of MBA has now Emergence of New Business
become critical Schools Worldwide
Uncertainty in salary packages of Decline in Professional and
MBA Experienced Faculty availability

The Main Trends:

Rise in the Number of Business Schools

Reducing Duration of MBA Courses
Increase i n Exchange programs with Business Schools in developing countries
Younger Generation keen on getti ng started with an MBA in their early years
Increased focus on Visionary Courses by Business Schools
MBA programs made more flexible to meet student, market demands
Decline in the Number of Applicants for MBA Courses
Competitive courses attracting prospective MBA students
Universities offering dual degrees of diverse nature i.e. (B.Tech + MBA)
Devaluation of the MBA D egree in the Job market
Relative loweri ng of Av g. Salaries offered to MBA Graduates

Step 3: Uncertainty Impact Matrix (y-x axis)

1 Job Market Scenario
2 Growth of Competitive Courses
3 Capacity of B-schools to increase thei r intake
4 Quality of the MBA Curriculum
5 Return of Inv estment opportuniti es for students
6 Duration of MBA has now become critical
8 Failure of MBA Graduates in the Real World Scenario.
9 Focus on Interdisciplinary Courses.
10 Declining Corporate Support for financing MBA
11 Emergence of New Business Schools Worldwi de
12 Decline in Professional and Experienced Faculty
availability
13 Ucertainty in salary packages of MBA

7 Emergence of Online MBAs

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 12
1

10 2
3
4
8
5
6
6
7
8
4
9
10
2
11
12
0
13
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Step 4: 2*2 Matrices

MBA Graduates

Born Molded
Leader Leader

Visionary Courses Offered

in Real World

Failed Impractical
Leader Leader

Step 5: The 4 Quadrants

Q1::Fast forward to 2016: Born Leader

Management failures across companies in part of MBA’s: MBA’s not assuming the stewardship.
Visionary courses are not emphasized in the curriculum.
MBA student limiting their thought process to managerial probl em solving rather than having a visionary/strategic
pers pective of issues.
Majority of the successful leaders of the world hav e not attended a Business-School.
MBA programs not abl e to meet the challenging needs of society.

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How we got there? Born Leader

During the recent economic crisis, the social responsibility of the MBA has been scrupulously questioned. The leaders hip
skills of the MBA’s has come into the limelight and the stewardship of the MBA’ has been doubted with utmost
conspicuousness. The financial crisis was the biggest eye opener for what MBA schools are l acking in terms of making
great leaders. Goldman Sachs us ed to recruit mainly from the Ivy leagues and top Business schools of the world, and the
financial crisis has brought the company to its knees. The lack of visionary leadership and shortsighted strategies to
maximize shareholder values prov ed havoc for the company. MBA curricula are so focused on narrow targets that
business schools have created a generation of leaders unable to spot the crash coming. Cass Business School’s Pal mer
agrees that different management skills are needed in times of scarcity. "We hav e to teach about behavioral leadership," he
says. "You find a wartime leader adopting a very different strategy from a peacetime leader, and a chi ef executive needs to
recognize they may hav e to get their hands dirty-that it can be motivational."

As a consequence, there is decline in the applications to Business schools from the pros pective MB A applicants. Students
worldwide have s tarted questioning the effectiveness of the MBA s tudi es and the fulfillment of the study itself. As a result,
the schools are revisiting their core curriculum and modifying the cours e contents. Business leaders have realized the v ery
fact that business schools has to prepare students to think outside the box and respond effectively to social challenges
posed by shifti ng markets and contracting economi es.

Early warning Indicators? Born Leader

Decrease in MBA applications as given in the table below.

Flattening of paychecks and deduction in bonus schemes of the MBA graduates. MBA s alaries have slipped by an
average of 5% in 2010 compared to 2009.
MBA jobs i n some i ndus tries such as finance and pharmaceuticals a re facing a grim outlook. MBA jobs in telecoms will
also fall by 4% in 2010.
There has been a s harp drop in employer demand for MBAs with less years of experi ence.

Table: Percentage Increase in MBA Jobs by Region in 2010

Year of Percentage Change in

Study number of MBA
applicants
2004 -11%
2005 -8%
2006 6%
2007 5%
2008 8%
2009 3%
2010 -2%

Source: Q S Top MBA Jobs & Salary Trends Report 2010/2011 (www. topmba.com)

Q2::FAST FORWARD to 2016: Molded Leader

Tremendous success of MBA graduates in the real world of business.

Rising demand of MBA’s to meet complex and dynamic needs of the business world.
Increased emphasis of visionary courses in the MBA curriculum.
Visionary courses are helping MBA students to achieve sharp career path.
Schools are introducing program on Social Intelligence, which emphasizes team leadership skills through group
simulations.

HOW WE GOT THERE? Molded Leader

Leading a business through recessionary times has opened a new chapter i n the business education. Nowadays, MBA
curriculum draws on special skills. Cutting costs, increasing s ales managing change and finding new opportuniti es are just

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some of the challenges business leaders face. The schools are making all -rounded business leaders who adopt more
forward-focused approach in the changing times. MBA programs are inculcating i nnovative problem solving approaches
and experience and thus helping business studies to regain its relevance and v alue. Students are now being molded i nto
future leaders by encouraging them to face the current business challenges and issues in corporate social responsibility.

The MBA participants who are graduating are pl eased to have found that they have time to step back and deal objectiv ely
with issues they've been facing at work. MBA courses are now making visionary leaders who now deal with case studies
incorporating aspects of the downturn, for exampl e: can environmental sustainability remain a priori ty in a recessi on?
This particular aspect dev elops the multi dimensional leadership and undermines the fact that “leaders are born, not
made”.

EARLY WARNING INDICATORS? Molded Leader

Increase i n MBA applications.

Rise in demand of MBA’s for managing compl ex business situations and increase in the MBA pay structure.
Increased hiri ng of MBAs as given in the table below.
Increased emphasis of visionary courses in MBA curriculum.

Table: Percentage Increase in MBA Jobs By Region in 2010

Region Respondents to Question Increase in MBA Hiring 2010/9

Eastern Europe 17% 2%

Latin America 6% 5%
Middle East, Africa 5% 3%
North Asia & 7% 12%
Singapore
South & South East 32% 32%
Asia
US & Canada 13% 8%
Western Europe 19% 3%
Source: Q S Top MBA Jobs & Salary Trends Report 2010/2011 ( www.topmba.com)

Q3::FAST FORWARD to 2016; Failed Leader

Disconnect between education and market demand.

No interaction/discussions of real world Business Scenarios in MBA Curriculum .
No personal development programs / no motivation to go beyond the curriculum.
Specializing in analytical skills instead of “real-life” experience.
Teachers are not able to inspire students to be pro -active.
Demand for MBA graduates is declining.
Shorter Duration of Full Time MBA on rise.

HOW WE GOT THERE? Failed Leader

During the pas t few years even younger, inexperi enced peopl e have joined an ever-expanding number of Business schools
to get their MBA certificate. The lack of experience of both the student and teachers in the corporate world has resulted in
a deteriorating the quality of education provided as well as not meeting the expectations set by the market. Now
compani es need people that hav e a developed sense of leadership, corporate responsibility and business ethics that was
not taught at the B usiness schools.

Currently we live in a global marketplace that requires management to be sensitive to multitude of different cul tures
within the company and at the client side. Apparently the graduates of the Business schools did not have any expos ure to
this environment during their education. Partnershi ps with other B-school across the world would have given the student
the necessary exposure to perform today’s business environment.

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The ever shorter (online) MBA education leads to superficial knowledge that hol ds no meri ts in the business environment
anymore. Not having the possibilities to work in teams makes them individuals instead of the team l eaders that companies
now need.

EARLY WARNING INDICATORS: Failed Leader

Mushrooming MBAs world-wide, without considering the quality of education.

Business Schools reluctant to change curriculum, teaching the same courses of decades without considering the
relevancy of the subject in today’s world.
Reduction in the number of student exchange programs.
Not discussing and experimenting of new work methods.
Declining or Stagnating salari es offered to MBA graduates.
Growth of soul searching educational tri ps.

Q4::FAST FORWARD to 2016: Impractical Leader

Lost competitive spiri t.

Companies require fact based analytical people.
Manager cannot communicate their vision to others.
Unable to translate vision to day-to-day workings.
Manager is now to busy in maki ng new visions rather than implementing them.
Not focused on making money.
Lacking core business knowl edge of an MBA.
Differential view towards life, far away from the realistic and practical world.
No connection wi th the practicalities of business during the MBA Cours e.

HOW WE GOT THERE? Impractical Leader

In the last few years competition increase dramatically having companies focus more and more on business excellence
instead of Corporate Social Responsibility. MBA graduates have been focus ed of the fuzzy stuff i nstead of the “hard -nos ed”
analytical skills now so much needed to make companies competitive.

They older generation expect their boss to be better educated than them, but young MBA graduates are more focused on
ethics then on the money-making part of doi ng business. Creating vision but not able to execute results in losing the
respect/trust of the ol der generation. Should have been a mentorshi p program included in their education, experienced
managers could have prepared the young MBA graduates in the new rol es in the company.

Due to a lack of discipline, they are unable focus on the tasks at hand. They keep wandering to create yet another vision
instead of executing daily operation in an efficient manner thus resulting in loses for their company.

EARLY WARNING INDICATORS: Impractical Leader

Employing people with other educational backgrounds to fill former MBA positions.
Increase i n Job-Swi tching. Higher Attrition rates.
Decrease in growth potential once hired.
Decrease in willingness to trai n the new employees.
Increased failures of “start-ups”.
Failing to perform.

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