Shahab Software

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 16

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ

9RO 1R VXPPHU DXWXPQ ,$&+(

6+$+$%$3&%DVHG6RIWZDUHIRU6LPXODWLRQRI6WHDP&UDFNLQJ
)XUQDFHV (WKDQHDQG1DSKWKD

-7RZILJKL 5.DULP]DGHK06DGUDPHOL$1LDHL*6DHGL6+RVHLQL0
0RIDUDKLDQG%0RNKWDUDQL
2OHILQ5HVHDUFK*URXS 25* &KHP(QJ'HSW7DUELDW0RGDUHV8QLYHUVLW\32%R[7HKUDQ
'HSDUWPHQWRI$SSOLHG&KHPLVWU\7DEUL]8QLYHUVLW\7DEUL],UDQ

$EVWUDFW
6+$+$% LV D 3& EDVHGVLPXODWRU GHYHORSHG E\ 2OHILQ 5HVHDUFK *URXS 25* ZLWK
WKH VLPXOWDQHRXV VLPXODWLRQ RIWKHUHDFWRUWKHILUHER[WKHFRQYHFWLRQVHFWLRQDQGWKH
WUDQVIHU OLQH H[FKDQJHU LQ VWHDP &UDFNLQJ XQLWV 7KH UHDFWLRQ PHFKDQLVP RI WKHUPDO
FUDFNLQJRIK\GURFDUERQVLVJHQHUDOO\DFFHSWHGDVIUHHUDGLFDOFKDLQUHDFWLRQV8VLQJD
ULJRURXVNLQHWLFPRGHODFRPSOHWHUHDFWLRQQHWZRUNIRUUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHGHFRPSRVLWLRQ
RI K\GURFDUERQ IHHGVWRFNV KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG DQG XVHG IRU VLPXODWLRQ RI WKHUPDO
K\GURFDUERQ FUDFNHUV 7DNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH NLQHWLFV RI FRNH IRUPDWLRQ 6+$+$%
SURYLGHV D GHWDLOHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI SURGXFW WHPSHUDWXUH DQG SUHVVXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ
FRNH WKLFNQHVV SURILOH UHDFWRU UXQ OHQJWK IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG WKH DPRXQW RI VWHDP
JHQHUDWHG

.H\ZRUGV 6+$+$%3& %DVHGVRIWZDUH&UDFNLQJ)XUQDFH6WHDP&UDFNLQJ2OHILQV

,QWURGXFWLRQ VWHDPDUHSUHKHDWHGXSWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\
3\URO\VLV RI K\GURFDUERQV VXFK DV HWKDQH ƒ& LQ RUGHU WR UHFRYHU WKH VHQVLEOH KHDW
QDSKWKD DQG JDV RLO LV DQ LPSRUWDQW FRQWDLQHGLQWKHIOXHJDVHVOHDYLQJWKHUDGLDQW
FRPPHUFLDO SURFHVV IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI VHFWLRQ 7KH UDGLDQW VHFWLRQ FRQVLVWV RI D VHW
HWK\OHQHSURS\OHQHDQGEXWDGLHQH7KHVH RIFRLOVW\SLFDOO\ZLWKDQLQWHUQDOGLDPHWHURI
ORZPROHFXODUZHLJKW ROHILQV DUH DPRQJ WKH PPDQGDOHQJWKRIPZKHUH
PRVW LPSRUWDQW EDVH FKHPLFDOV IRU WKH WKH\ DUH KHDWHG E\ JDVILUHG EXUQHUV 7KH
SHWURFKHPLFDO LQGXVWULHV 0RGHUQ VWHDP UHVLGHQFH WLPH RI WKH PL[WXUH RI
FUDFNLQJ SODQWV DUH WKH PDLQ SDUW RI K\GURFDUERQVDQGVWHDPLQWKHUDGLDQWFRLOVLV
SHWURFKHPLFDOFRPSOH[HVSURGXFLQJ EHWZHHQVHF7KHUDQJHRIVWHDP WR
WR  WS\ RI HWK\OHQH WKH PDLQ K\GURFDUERQ UDWLR YDULHV IURP  IRU HWKDQH
SHWURFKHPLFDO EXLOGLQJ EORFN 7KHVH SODQWV IHHG WR  IRU QDSKWKD 7KH FUDFNLQJ
FRQVLVWRIIXUQDFHVDQGDVHSDUDWLRQWUDLQ$V UHDFWLRQVLQVLGHWKHFRLOVDUHHQGRWKHUPLFDQG
VKRZQLQ)LJXUHVFKHPDWLFDOO\WKHIXUQDFH WKH WHPSHUDWXUH LV LQFUHDVHG IURP DERXW 
KDV D UDGLDQW VHFWLRQ D FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ ƒ&DWWKHLQOHWRIWKHFUDFNLQJFRLOWR
DQG D VR FDOOHG WUDQVIHU OLQH H[FKDQJHU ƒ& DW WKH RXWOHW 8QGHU WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV WKH
7/(  ,Q WKH FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ IHHG DQG IHHGVWRFNLVFRQYHUWHGWKURXJKDIUHHUDGLFDO

 &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU(PLOOWRZILJKL#PRGDUHVDFLU
)D[7HO H[W


6+$+$% $3& %DVHG«

PHFKDQLVPWRWKHSURGXFWV(WK\OHQH\LHOGLV LQFUHDVHV IDYRULQJ FRQGHQVDWLRQ UHDFWLRQV


W\SLFDOO\ RQZHLJKWEDVLVZLWKQDSKWKD ZKLFKSURGXFHF\FORGLROHILQVDQGDURPDWLFV
DQGJRHVGRZQWRIRUJDVRLOIHHGVWRFN ,QWKLVVRIWZDUHDFRPSOHWHUHDFWLRQQHWZRUN
7KH LQQHU VXUIDFH RI D FUDFNLQJ FRLO LV IRU GHFRPSRVLWLRQ RI K\GURFDUERQ IHHGV LV
JUDGXDOO\ FRYHUHG ZLWK FRNH ZKLFK LV GHYHORSHG XVLQJ D ULJRURXV NLQHWLF PRGHO
GHSRVLWHGGXULQJWKHIXUQDFHRQ VWUHDPWLPH 7KH GHWDLOHG PHFKDQLVWLF NLQHWLF VFKHPH LQ
7KH FRNH OD\HU UHGXFHV WKH KHDW WUDQVIHU WR WKLV VLPXODWLRQ QHWZRUN GHYHORSHG E\
WKHSURFHVVJDVDQGLQRUGHUWRPDLQWDLQWKH 7RZILJKL HW DO >@ LQYROYHV 
SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKHUHDFWRUWKHH[WHUQDOWXEH UHDFWLRQV DQG  PROHFXODU DQG UDGLFDO
PHWDO WHPSHUDWXUH KDV WR EH UDLVHG 7KH VSHFLHV $V XVXDO WKLV FKDLQ UDGLFDO
RSHUDWLRQRIWKHUHDFWRUKDVWREHLQWHUUXSWHG PHFKDQLVP FRQVLVWV RI VHYHUDO UDGLFDO DQG
ZKHQ WKH VNLQ WHPSHUDWXUH UHDFKHV WKH OLPLW PROHFXODU HOHPHQWDU\ UHDFWLRQV VXFK DV
LPSRVHG E\ FRLO PHWDOOXUJ\ ZKLFK LV LQLWLDWLRQ UHDFWLRQV +DEVWUDFWLRQV UDGLFDO
W\SLFDOO\LQWKHUDQJH RIƒ& DGGLWLRQV GHFRPSRVLWLRQV LVRPHUL]DWLRQ
7KLV SDSHU GHVFULEHV 6+$+$% VLPXODWLRQ UHDFWLRQV WHUPLQDWLRQ UHDFWLRQV DQG 'LHOV
VRIWZDUH ZKLFK KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG LQ WKH $OGHUF\FOL]DWLRQV7RREWDLQUHOLDEOHUHVXOWV
2OHILQ 5HVHDUFK *URXS 25*  RI 7DUELDW WKH UHDFWLRQ QHWZRUN VKRXOG EH YHULILHG DQG
0RGDUHV 8QLYHUVLW\ IRU WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WXQHG XVLQJ H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD )RU WKLV
SURGXFW \LHOGV DQG UXQ OHQJWK RI WKHUPDO SXUSRVH ODUJH DPRXQWV RI H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH
FUDFNLQJ IXUQDFHV )RU WKLV SXUSRVH WKH FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ D SLORW SODQW UHDFWRU
UHDFWRU WKH ILUHER[ WKH FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ 'HWDLOV RI WKLV V\VWHP DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 25*
DQG WKH 7/( DUH VLPXODWHG VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ GRFXPHQWV>@6RPHNLQHWLFH[WHQVLRQVKDG
7KLV 3&EDVHG VRIWZDUH KDV D FRQYHQLHQW WR EH PDGH DQG WKH SDUDPHWHUV ZHUH WXQHG
JUDSKLFDO XVHU LQWHUIDFH DQG LW FDQ HDVLO\ EH DQGYHULILHGZLWKODUJHDPRXQWVRISLORWSODQW
XVHG IRU WKH WUDLQLQJ RI HWK\OHQH SODQW DQG LQGXVWULDO GDWD >@ 7KLV ULJRURXV
RSHUDWRUV$VFKHPDWLFEORFNGLDJUDPRIWKLV NLQHWLF PRGHO FDQ EH EULHIO\ VXPPDUL]HG
VLPXODWRULVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH ZLWKH[DPSOHVRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIUHDFWLRQV
DVVKRZQLQ7DEOH

7KH5HDFWRU0RGHO
0RGHO(TXDWLRQV
7KH.LQHWLF0RGHO $ RQHGLPHQVLRQDO SOXJIORZ PRGHO LV XVHG
7KH PHFKDQLVP RI WKHUPDO FUDFNLQJ RI WRVLPXODWHWKHWKHUPDOFUDFNLQJUHDFWRU7KH
K\GURFDUERQV LV JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG DV IUHH VHW RI FRQWLQXLW\ HTXDWLRQV IRU WKH YDULRXV
UDGLFDO FKDLQ UHDFWLRQV (WKDQH FUDFNLQJ SURFHVV JDV VSHFLHV LV VROYHG VLPXOWDQHRXVO\
UHSUHVHQWV WKH VLPSOHVW DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH ZLWK WKH HQHUJ\ PRPHQWXP DQG WKH FRNLQJ
IUHHUDGLFDOPHFKDQLVP7KHUHDFWLRQVFKHPH UDWH HTXDWLRQV >@ 7KHVH HTXDWLRQV DUH DV
ZLWK KHDYLHU IHHGV VXFK DV QDSKWKD LV PXFK IROORZV
PRUH FRPSOH[ WKDQ WKDW RI JDVHRXV 0DVVEDODQFH
IHHGVWRFNV GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW KXQGUHGV RI
UHDFWDQWV UHDFW LQ SDUDOOHO DQG VRPH RI WKRVH G)M SG W
UHDFWDQWV DUH IRUPHG DV UHDFWLRQ SURGXFWV ¦ Q LM UUL 
G] 
GXULQJ WKH UHDFWLRQ $V WKH UHDFWLRQ
L

FRQYHUVLRQ DQG KHQFH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI (QHUJ\EDODQFH


ROHILQV DQG RWKHU SURGXFWV LQFUHDVH
VHFRQGDU\UHDFWLRQVEHFRPHPRUHVLJQLILFDQW G7 SG 
3DUWLDO SUHVVXUH RI ROHILQV DQG GLROHILQV ¦)MFSM { 4 ] SG W  W ¦ UUL '+ L 
M G=  L

 UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R
7RZILJKL.DULP]DGHK6DGUDPHOL1LDHL6DHGL+RVHLQL0RIDUDKL0RNKWDUDQL

0RPHQWXPEDODQFH FRQWULEXWH WR WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI FRNH


8QVDWXUDWHV DQG DURPDWLFV DUH D YHU\
 3 GS G    G7 LPSRUWDQW FODVV RI FRNH SUHFXUVRUV 7KH\DUH
 W W  )U 
0P3W E* 57 G] G] 0P 0P 7 G] SURGXFWV RI WKH S\URO\VLV UHDFWLRQV VR WKDW
WKHLU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH KLJKWHPSHUDWXUH
ZKHUHE LVWKHFRQYHUVLRQIDFWRU ]RQHRIWKHUHDFWRULVKLJKHU 8QVDWXUDWHVDUH
)ULFWLRQ IDFWRU IRU WKH VWUDLJKW SDUW RI WKH UHDFWLYH FRPSRQHQWV 7KHUHIRUH WKH\ DUH
UHDFWRUFRLOVLV JRRG FDQGLGDWHV IRU WKH UDGLFDO DGGLWLRQ
6LQFH DURPDWLF ULQJ VWUXFWXUH LV FORVH WR WKH
5H  VWUXFWXUH RI WKH FRNH PDWUL[ EUDQFKHG
)U  
GW DURPDWLFV DUH DOVR FRQVLGHUHG DV UHDFWLYH
FRPSRQHQWV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR FRNH IRUPDWLRQ
DQGIRUWKHWXEHEHQGV
HVSHFLDOO\ DW KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV SUHYDLOLQJ LQ
5H  ] WKHUPDO FUDFNLQJ FRLOV/LWHUDWXUHVXUYH\DQG
)U    SODQWGDWDOHGWRDFRNLQJPRGHOFRQVLGHULQJ
GW S5 E
DOVRDQXPEHURIFRNHSUHFXUVRUVWKHUHODWLYH
ZKHUH 5E DQG  UHSUHVHQW WKH UDGLXV RI WKH FRNLQJ UDWHV RI ZKLFK KDG EHHQ REWDLQHG
WXEHEHQGDQGDQJOHRIEHQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ H[SHULPHQWDOO\ >@ 7KH SUHFXUVRUV DUH
FODVVLILHG LQWR JURXSV VXFK DV ROHILQLFV
/ G GLHQHVDFHW\OHQLFQDSKWKHQLFVDQGDURPDWLFV
] R       
 q
5E >@
,Q WKH SUHVHQW ZRUN WKH UHVLGXDO VXP RI
6LQFH FRNLQJ LV VORZ TXDVL VWHDG\ VWDWH VTXDUHV EHWZHHQ WKH FDOFXODWHG YDOXHV DQG
FRQGLWLRQVPD\EHDVVXPHG7KHWKLFNQHVVRI DV\PSWRWLF FRNLQJ UDWHV ZHUH XVHG DV WKH
FRNH GHSRVLWHG RQ WKH LQQHUZDOOV RI FRLOV LV REMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQDQGWKHNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHUV
REWDLQHGE\ RI FRNLQJ ZHUH HVWLPDWHG E\ XVLQJ WKH
0DUTXDUGW DOJRULWKP  7KH UDWH RI FRNH
DUF IRUPDWLRQ IURP FRQWULEXWHG SUHFXUVRUV LV
'W F 'W 
UF H[SUHVVHGE\

7KHUHIRUHWKHQHZGLDPHWHURIFRLOZLOOEH UFL N L& L


Q

GWQHZ GWROG ±  WF 
ZKHUH
7KHJRYHUQLQJPDVVHQHUJ\DQGPRPHQWXP
EDODQFH HTXDWLRQV IRU WKH FUDFNLQJ FRLO NL $ H[S (  57 
FRQVWLWXWH D ERXQGDU\ YDOXH SUREOHP ZKLFK
KDV D VLJQLILFDQW VWLIIQHVV LQ WKH QXPHULFDO 7RWDOFRNLQJUDWHLVFDOFXODWHGDV
VROXWLRQ GXH WR WKH ODUJH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ UF ¦ UFL 
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ JUDGLHQW EHWZHHQ UDGLFDOV DQG L

PROHFXOHV 7KLV SUREOHP FDQ EH WDFNOHG 7KH WHPSHUDWXUH RI FRNLQJ UDWH LV FDOFXODWHG
WKURXJKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH*HDUPHWKRG DWJDVFRNHLQWHUIDFH

7KH&RNLQJ0RGHO
&RNH IRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH S\URO\VLV RI 7KHPRGHORIWKH5DGLDWLRQ6HFWLRQ
K\GURFDUERQVLVDFRPSOH[SKHQRPHQRQGXH 7KH JHRPHWU\ RI WKH UHDFWRU FRLO LQVLGH WKH
WRWKHYDULRXVIUHHUDGLFDOUHDFWLRQVLQYROYHG IXUQDFHDQGWKHFRQILJXUDWLRQDQGW\SHRIWKH
$ QXPEHU RI FRNH SUHFXUVRUV ZHUH IRXQG WR EXUQHUV UHTXLUH VSHFLDO DWWHQWLRQ 7KH PXOWL

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R 
6+$+$% $3& %DVHG«

]RQH PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO KDV EHHQ XVHG IRU w ª w7 º w7


 N U &S 
WKH VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH FUDFNLQJ IXUQDFHV w] «¬ w] »¼ wW
>@ 7KH IXUQDFH UHIUDFWRU\ ZDOOV WKH
VXUIDFH RI UHDFWRU FRLOV DQG WKH IOXH JDV $VVXPLQJWKDWWKHWHPSHUDWXUHLQHDFKVPDOO
YROXPH ZHUH GLVFUHWL]HG LQWR D QXPEHU RI HOHPHQW LV FRQVWDQW HTXDWLRQ  FDQ EH
LVRWKHUPDO VXUIDFH DQG YROXPH ]RQHV ZLWK VLPSOLILHGDV
XQLIRUP SURSHUWLHV 7KH HQHUJ\ EDODQFH
FRQWDLQLQJ FRQWULEXWLRQ RI UDGLDWLYH FRQ w 7   w 7   w 7 
YHFWLYH DQGRU FRQGXFWLYH KHDW H[FKDQJH LV ’ 7 
w U U w U U w T 
FRQVWUXFWHG IRU HDFK RI WKHVH HOHPHQWV
UHVXOWLQJ LQ D VHW RI QRQOLQHDU DOJHEUDLF
HTXDWLRQVLQWKHIRUP

ª =  =   ¦ = L = M   =  =     = Q =  º ª ( º ª4 $ º


«( » «4 $ »
« =  =    =  =   ¦ =  =    = Q = 
« »
» « » «  »
« » « » « »
« » « » « »
« » « » 
« »
« » « » « »
« » « » « »
« »
¦ Q M¼
« = =    = =   = =  = = » « »
¬ «( » «4 $ »
¬ Q¼ ¬ Q Q¼
 Q  Q Q Q

7KHPDWUL[HOHPHQW=L=MUHSUHVHQWVWKHWRWDO 7KHERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQVIRUHTXDWLRQDUH
H[FKDQJHDUHDEHWZHHQ]RQHV=LDQG=M7KLV QRZ GHILQHG LQ WKH LQWHUQDO DQG H[WHUQDO
LV WKH DPRXQW RI UDGLDWLYH HQHUJ\HPLWWHG E\ VXUIDFHVRIWKHFRLOVDV
]RQH=LDQGDEVRUEHGERWKGLUHFWO\DQGDIWHU
UHIOHFWLRQRQRWKHU]RQHVE\]RQH=MGLYLGHG w7
DWU UH[W N U  T T U T 
E\ WKH EODFN ERG\ HPLVVLYH SRZHU (L 7KH wU
QRQUDGLDWLYHKHDWIOX[HPLWWHGE\]RQH=LLV
UHSUHVHQWHG E\ 4L 6ROYLQJ WKH VHW RI HQHUJ\
EDODQFHV\LHOGVWKHKHDWIOX[DQGWHPSHUDWXUH
DWU ULQW N
w7
wU
U  T > @
K S 7 U  T  7S 
GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKH IXUQDFH >@ :KHQ WKH
UHDFWRUWXEHVDUHGLVFUHWL]HGLQD[LDOGLUHFWLRQ
7 U  T 7 U  T  S 
RQO\KHDWIOX[SURILOHVT ] DQGH[WHUQDOWXEH
VNLQWHPSHUDWXUHSURILOHV7 H[W ] DUHREWDLQHG
DQG
:KHQWKHWXEHVDUHDOVRGLVFUHWL]HGDORQJWKH
SHULPHWHU KHDW IOX[ SURILOHV 7 U  ]  DUH  w 7 U  T  w 7 U  T  S
REWDLQHG 7KH FRQGXFWLRQ HTXDWLRQV IRU HDFK 
U wT U wT
D[LDO WXEH ]RQH ZLWK WKH DSSURSULDWH
ERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQVDUH 7KH FDOFXODWLRQ PRGXOH IRU WKH
FLUFXPIHUHQWLDO WHPSHUDWXUH SURILOHV LV
 w ª w7 º  w ª w7 º
« NU   N FRXSOHGWRWKHIXUQDFHDQGUHDFWRUVLPXODWLRQ
U wU ¬ w U ¼ U wT «¬ wT »¼
»
PRGHO

 UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R
7RZILJKL.DULP]DGHK6DGUDPHOL1LDHL6DHGL+RVHLQL0RIDUDKL0RNKWDUDQL

7DEOH 7\SLFDOUDGLFDODQGPROHFXODUUHDFWLRQV

$5DGLFDOUHDFWLRQV
 ,QLWLDWLRQUHDFWLRQV
8QLPROHFXODU &+   &+    &+  o &  +  x &+   &+   &+   &+  x
%LPROHFXODU &+   &+   &+  &+  o &  +  x &  +  x
 3URSDJDWLRQUHDFWLRQV
5DGLFDOGHFRPSRVLWLRQLVRQHRIWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWUHDFWLRQW\SHVDQGLVGLUHFWO\SURGXFLQJHWK\OHQH
DFFRUGLQJWRWKHIROORZLQJVFKHPH 
5DGLFDOGHFRPSRVLWLRQ x &+   &+   &+  o &  +   &+  x

5DGLFDOOVRPHUL]DWLRQ x &+   &+    &+   &+  o &+   &+    & +  &+ 


x

+ DEVWUDFWLRQRQPROHFXOHV
&+  x  &+   &+   &+  o &+   &+   &+   &+  x
$GGLWLRQRIUDGLFDOVRQXQVDWXUDWHGPROHFXOHV
&+  x  &+  &+  &+  o &+   &+   &+   &+  x
 7HUPLQDWLRQUHDFWLRQV
5HFRPELQDWLRQRIUDGLFDOVWRIRUPRQHPROHFXOH
&  +  x &  +  x o &+   &+   &+   &+ 
5HFRPELQDWLRQRIUDGLFDOVIRUPLQJWZRPROHFXOHV
&  +  x &  +  x o &+   &+   &+  &+ 

%0ROHFXODUUHDFWLRQV
2OHILQLVRPHUL]DWLRQ
&+   &+ &+  &+  o &+  &+  &+   &+ 
2OHILQGHK\GURJHQDWLRQ
&+  &+  &+   &+  o &+  &+  &+ &+   + 
2OHILQGHFRPSRVLWLRQ
&+  &+  &+   &+   &+  o &+  &+  &+   &+  &+ 
'LHOV $OGHUUHDFWLRQ
&+  &+  &+ &+   &+  &+  o &\FOR& + 

7KH 0RGHO RI WKH &RQYHFWLRQ 6HFWLRQ DQG LQ WXUQ LV GLYLGHG LQWR VHYHUDO URZV RI EDUH
7/( DQGRUILQQHGWXEHV
)OXH JDVHV OHDYLQJ WKH ILUHER[ WUDQVIHU D 7KHFUDFNHGJDV ZKLFKLVWKHSURGXFWRIWKH
FRQVLGHUDEOH DPRXQW RI HQHUJ\ WKDW FDQ EHVW S\URO\VLV UHDFWRU LV OHGWR VHSDUDWLRQVHFWLRQ
EH UHFRYHUHG LQ WKH FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ RI D WKURXJK WUDQVIHU OLQH H[FKDQJHUV 7/(V  ,Q
WKHUPDO FUDFNLQJ IXUQDFH 8VXDOO\ WKLV HQ RUGHUWRUHWDLQHWK\OHQHDQGSURS\OHQH\LHOGV
HUJ\ LV XVHG WR SUHKHDW WKH UHDFWRU IHHG DQG WKH FUDFNHG JDV ZKLFKLVXVXDOO\DW
%): UHTXLUHG IRU 7/(V DQG WR SURGXFH ž&PXVWEHUDSLGO\FRROHGGRZQWR 
VXSHUKHDWHG VWHDP 7KH FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ ž&
FDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRVHYHUDOEDQNVGHSHQGLQJ 7KLV LV GRQH E\ PHDQV RI %): %HFDXVH RI
RQ WKH W\SH RI K\GURFDUERQ IHHG (DFK EDQN WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ 7/( DQG %):

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R 
6+$+$% $3& %DVHG«

SUHKHDWHU FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ DQG 7/( DUH &DOFXODWLRQ RI WKH 2YHUDOO +HDW 7UDQVIHU
VROYHGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ &RHIILFLHQW
6WDUWLQJ IURP WKH ILUVW EDQN RI FRQYHFWLRQ 0DWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOLQJ LV GLIIHUHQW IRU EDUH
VHFWLRQ ZKLFK LV WKH FORVHVW RQH WR WKH ILUH DQG ILQQHG WXEHV 7KHUHIRUH GLIIHUHQW
ER[ IRU HDFK EDQN ZH KDYH WKH IROORZLQJ HTXDWLRQVDUHXVHGIRUFDOFXODWLQJWKHRYHUDOO
HQHUJ\EDODQFHHTXDWLRQV KHDWWUDQVIHUFRHIILFLHQWLQWKHVHWXEHV
)RUEDUHWXEHV

³ PF S IJ G7 8$ ' 7/Q %DQN  L 


7Q  
 
7Q
 HWF
X KL

³ PFS IJ G7 ³ PFS SJ G7 P SJ O 


7Q  7SJ RXW 

 §   G LU   ·
¨¨     ¸¸ 
7Q 7SJ LQ

X © KL )L NZ ) K ¹
7KH ILUVW WHUP DW WKH ULJKW KDQG RIWKHDERYH
HTXDWLRQZLOOEH]HURLIWKHUHLVQRFKDQJHRI )L DQG )R DUH LQVLGH DQG RXWVLGH IRXOLQJ
SKDVH IDFWRUVDQG GZ DQGNZ DUHZDOOWKLFNQHVVDQG
+DYLQJ VROYHG WKH UDGLDWLRQ VHFWLRQ WKH ZDOOFRQGXFWLYLW\UHVSHFWLYHO\
WHPSHUDWXUHRIWKHIOXHJDVDWWKHHQWUDQFHRI $OWKRXJK FRQYHFWLYH KHDW WUDQVIHU LV
WKH FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ LV NQRZQ 7KHUHIRUH SUHGRPLQDQW LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ WKH HIIHFWV RI
IRUHDFKEDQNZHZLOOKDYHWZRHTXDWLRQVDQG UDGLDWLRQ IURP UDGLDWLQJ ZDOOV DQG UDGLDWLQJ
WZRXQNQRZQV PHGLDRQWKHKHDWWUDQVIHUFRHIILFLHQWVKDOOEH
WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW 7KLV LV HVSHFLDOO\
)RU%):SUHKHDWHUDQG7/(ZHFDQZULWH
LPSRUWDQW IRU WKH ILUVW IHZ URZV RI WKH ILUVW
EDQNZKLFKDUHH[SRVHGWRUDGLDWLRQHIIHFWV
³7 PF S IJ G7 8$ ' 7/Q %):3+ 
7Q  

Q
7KHUHIRUH
+R KFRQYKUDG KVKRFN 

³7 PF S IJ G7 ³7 PF S %): G7 
7Q  7% RXW

Q % LQ KFRQY  NIJ GR 1XR 

)RUILQQHGWXEHV
³7 PFS %):G7 P%):O ³7 PFS FJ G7 
7VDW 7FJ RXW

%RXW FJ LQ
1XR u 5HRu 3UR 

)RUEDUHWXEHV
³ PF S FJ G7 8$ ' 7/Q 7/( 
7FJ  RXW

1XR u 5HRu 3UR 


7FJ  LQ

0%):7FJRXW7%RXW DQG7Q DUHXQNQRZQVRI )RUUDGLDWLRQKHDWWUDQVIHUZHKDYH


WKLVVHFWLRQ
ª § 7
· º
(QHUJ\ EDODQFH HTXDWLRQV DUH VROYHG E\ WKH § H   · « § 7IJ · 
 

KUDG V¨ Z H J ¨¨ ¸¸  D DEV ¨ )J ¸ »
¨  ¸ »
JHQHUDOL]HG IRUP RI 1HZWRQ5DSKVRQ ©  ¹̧ « ©  ¹
¬ © ¹ ¼
PHWKRG )RU FDOFXODWLRQ RI -DFRELDQ IRU Q
HTXDWLRQV DQG Q XQNQRZQV WKH *DXVVLDQ 7¶)J DYHUDJHFROGSODQHWHPSHUDWXUH
HOLPLQDWLRQPHWKRGZDVXVHG HZ WXEHHPLVVLYLW\DW7¶)J

 ,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R
7RZILJKL.DULP]DGHK6DGUDPHOL1LDHL6DHGL+RVHLQL0RIDUDKL0RNKWDUDQL

HJ JDVHPLVVLYLW\DW7¶)J ZKHUH ( LV ILQ HIILFLHQF\ DQG $ H[W LV


D DEV JDVDEVRUWLYLW\ FDOFXODWHGE\WKHIROORZLQJIRUPXOD
7KHKHDWWUDQVIHUFRHIILFLHQWGXHWRUDGLDWLQJ § 7I ·
ZDOOVLVREWDLQHGE\ $H[W  + I 7I ¨ ¸  S1 I GR  
¨ + ¸
© I ¹
) VKRFN
K VKRFN  )LQHIILFLHQF\LVDOVRDQLPSRUWDQWSDUDPHWHU
6 URZ 7)J  7)J

WDQK ()
I VKRFN VKRFNGXW\ (II 
6URZ WRWDORXWVLGHVXUIDFH EDUH ()
7KHLQVLGHKHDWWUDQVIHUFRHIILFLHQWLVZULWWHQ
LQWHUPVRI1XVVHOWQXPEHU  KR §  ·
() +I ¨   ¸ 
NI ¨7 : ¸
1X L NSJ © I I ¹
KL 
GR  7)
6LPXODWLRQ 3URFHGXUH
7KHSURFHGXUHIRUVLPXOWDQHRXVVLPXODWLRQRI
1XL u 5H u 3U  WKHUPDO FUDFNLQJ IXUQDFH LQFOXGLQJ WKH
UHDFWRU WKH ILUH ER[ WKH FRQYHFWLRQ VHFWLRQ
)RUILQQHGWXEHV DQG WKH 7/( DV SURJUDPPHG LQWR WKH
VRIWZDUH FDQ EH GHVFULEHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ
 §   · VWHSV
¨  ¸ 
X ¨ $ D $E  HII u D R ¸  7KH VHW SRLQWV RI SURJUDP DUH GHILQHG E\
© E L ¹
WKHXVHU
 6LPXODWLRQ RI UHDFWRU VWDUWV E\ DQ LQLWLDO
ZKHUH JXHVV IRU KHDW IOX[ SURILOH JDV LQOHW
WHPSHUDWXUH FURVV WHPSHUDWXUH  DQG LQOHW
 §    · SUHVVXUH
¨¨    ¸¸ 
DL K
© L )L .Z .) ¹  0DVV HQHUJ\ DQG PRPHQWXP EDODQFH
HTXDWLRQV DUH VROYHG DORQJ WKH OHQJWK RI
7) DQGN) DUHILQWKLFNQHVVDQGFRQGXFWLYLW\ WKHUHDFWRU
UHVSHFWLYHO\  &RLORXWOHWWHPSHUDWXUH &27 REWDLQHGLQ
VWHS  LV FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH VHW YDOXH
 §  · +HDW IOX[ SURILOH LV PRGLILHG DQG
¨¨  ¸¸  FDOFXODWLRQVDUHUHSHDWHGXQWLOWKHREWDLQHG
DR © KR )R ¹ YDOXHHTXDOVWKHVHWYDOXH
 7KH UHF\FOH UDWH LV DGMXVWHG IRU VWHDG\
$UHDV DUH FDOFXODWHG E\ WKH IROORZLQJ VWDWHFRQGLWLRQV
IRUPXODV  7KHDPRXQWRIIXHOJDVQHHGHGWRSURYLGH
WKH QHFHVVDU\ HQHUJ\ IRU UHDFWLRQV LV
$E S u GR  GHWHUPLQHG
 )OXH JDV IORZ UDWH DQG IOXH JDV
WHPSHUDWXUH OHDYLQJ WKH UDGLDWLRQ VHFWLRQ
$E Q GR  7I  DUHFDOFXODWHG
 0DVV HQHUJ\ DQG PRPHQWXP EDODQFH
HTXDWLRQVIRUFRQYHFWLRQVHFWLRQDQG 7/(
$WRW $E  (  $H[W  DUHVROYHGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R 
6+$+$% $3& %DVHG«

 &URVV WHPSHUDWXUH REWDLQHG LQ VWHS  LV UHDFWRU XQGHU PLGGOH RI UXQ 025  DQG HQG
FRPSDUHG WR WKH LQLWLDO JXHVV ,Q FDVH RI RIUXQ (25 FRQGLWLRQVDUHVKRZQLQILJXUH
DQ\ GLVFUHSDQFLHV REVHUYHG FDOFXODWLRQV  7KH FRNH WKLFNQHVV LV KLJK LQ WKH VHFRQG
ZLOOEHUHSHDWHGIURPVWHSRQXVLQJWKH SDUW RI WKH UHDFWRU EHFDXVH WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
REWDLQHGYDOXHDVWKHLQLWLDOJXHVV RI FRNH SUHFXUVRUV LQ WKH KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH
 ,I7/(RXWOHWSUHVVXUHREWDLQHGLQVWHS ]RQHRIWKHUHDFWRULVKLJK$VDFRQVHTXHQFH
LV QRW HTXDO WR SUHVVXUH VHW YDOXH WKH WKH FRNH OD\HU JURZV IDVW WKHUH FUHDWHV DQ
LQLWLDO JXHVV IRU UHDFWRU LQOHW SUHVVXUH DGGLWLRQDO UHVLVWDQFH WR KHDW WUDQVIHU DQG
VKDOO EH PRGLILHG XVLQJ IROORZLQJ FDXVHVDGHFUHDVHRIWKHWXEHFURVV VHFWLRQDO
HTXDWLRQ DQG FDOFXODWLRQV VKDOO EH DUHD ,QFUHDVLQJ WKH KHDW IOX[ LQFUHDVHV WKH
UHSHDWHGIURPVWHSRQ JDVFRNH LQWHUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG WKH
3QHZ 3LQ(UURU FRNLQJUDWHV
(UURU 2EWDLQHGYDOXH± 6HWYDOXH )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH KHDW IOX[ SURILOHV
 $IWHUWKH UHVXOWV DUH REWDLQHGIRUVWDUWRI REWDLQHG IURP VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH QDSKWKD
UXQ WLPH    WKH WLPH HOHPHQW LV FUDFNLQJ UHDFWRU DV D IXQFWLRQ RI UXQ WLPH
LQFUHDVHG E\ D WLPH LQFUHPHQW  DQG 7KH KLJK KHDW IOX[ LQ WKH ILUVW SDUW RI WKH
FDOFXODWLRQVDUHUHSHDWHGIURPVWHSRQ UHDFWRU UHVXOWV IURP WKH UHTXLUHPHQW RI
WLPH WLPHGWLPH DFKLHYLQJ D KLJKHUFRQYHUVLRQ WKHUHIRUH WKH
 7KH DPRXQW RI FRNH GHSRVLWHG LQ WKH HWK\OHQH \LHOG UHPDLQV FRQVWDQW GHVSLWH DQ
UHDFWRUZLOOFDXVHDQLQFUHDVHLQFRLOLQOHW LQFUHDVH LQ LQOHW SUHVVXUH 7KH UHVLVWDQFH
SUHVVXUH DQG DOVR LQ WXEH VNLQ DJDLQVWKHDWWUDQVIHUFDXVHGE\WKHFRNHOD\HU
WHPSHUDWXUH 7KHVH WZR IDFWRUV DUH WKH FDXVHV WKH H[WHUQDO WXEH VNLQ WHPSHUDWXUH WR
PDLQFRQVWUDLQWVLPSRVHGRQWKHSURJUDP ULVH HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH VHFRQG SDUW RI WKH
DQG HYHQWXDOO\ GHWHUPLQH UHDFWRU UXQ UHDFWRU )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH HYROXWLRQ ZLWK
OHQJWK WLPH RI WKH H[WHUQDO WXEH VNLQ WHPSHUDWXUH
7KH WHPSHUDWXUH SURILOH VKRZV D VLJQLILFDQW
&DVH6WXGLHV LQFUHDVH LQ WKH ILUVW SDUW RI WKH UHDFWRU EXW
6LPXODWLRQ RI WZR LQGXVWULDO ROHILQ IXUQDFHV WKLVLVPDLQO\GXHWRWKHKLJKHUKHDWIOX[7KH
DUHH[SODLQHGEHORZDVFDVHVWXGLHV PD[LPXP YDOXH LV UHDFKHG DW WKH HQG RI WKH
VHFRQGSDUW7KHUXQWLPHRIFUDFNLQJIXUQDFH
1DSKWKD&UDFNHU LV XVXDOO\ OLPLWHG E\ H[WHUQDO WXEH VNLQ
7KH ILUVW FDVH VWXG\ LV VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH WHPSHUDWXUH ,Q SUHVHQW FDVH WKH PD[LPXP
QDSKWKD FUDFNLQJ IXUQDFH LQ WKH ROHILQ SODQW DOORZDEOH WHPSHUDWXUH DW WKH VHFRQG SDUW RI
RI$UDN3HWURFKHPLFDO&RPSOH[$UDN,UDQ WKH FRLO LV  ƒ& 7KHUHIRUH LQ RXU FDVH
7DEOH  VKRZV LQSXW GDWD LQFOXGLQJ IXUQDFH WKHUXQOHQJWKZDVSUHGLFWHGWREHGD\V
GLPHQVLRQV UHDFWRU JHRPHWU\ 7/(
JHRPHWU\ IHHG VSHFLILFDWLRQV IXHO (WKDQH&UDFNHU
VSHFLILFDWLRQV DQG RSHUDWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV 7KH 7KH VHFRQG FDVH VWXG\ LV VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH
UHVXOWV RI WKLV VLPXODWLRQ DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ HWKDQH FUDFNLQJ IXUQDFH DW %DQGHU ,PDP
7DEOH 3HWURFKHPLFDO &RPSOH[ %,3&  0DKVKDKU
)LJXUHV  DQG  VKRZ SDUW RI WKH UHVXOWV ,UDQ,QSXWGDWDIRUWKLVIXUQDFHDUHVKRZQLQ
REWDLQHGIURPVLPXODWLQJWKHQDSKWKDWKHUPDO 7DEOH  DQG VLPXODWLRQ UHVXOWV RI HWKDQH
FUDFNLQJ UHDFWRU XVLQJ 6+$+$% 7KH \LHOG IXUQDFHDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH
SURILOHRI WKHPDLQSURGXFWVDORQJWKHOHQJWK 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH VLPXODWLRQ DUH VKRZQ LQ
RI WKH UHDFWRU XQGHU VWDUW RI UXQ 625  )LJXUHV  DQG  (WK\OHQH SURS\OHQH
FRQGLWLRQ LV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  5HDFWRU K\GURJHQ PHWKDQH DQG &  \LHOGV DORQJ WKH
VXUIDFH LV FOHDQ LQ WKH EHJLQQLQJ %XW WKH OHQJWK RI WKH UHDFWRU DW 625 DUH VKRZQ LQ
WKLFNQHVV RI WKH FRNH GHSRVLWHG RQ WKH LQQHU )LJXUH  DQG YDULDWLRQ RI WKH FRNH WKLFNQHVV
VXUIDFH RI UHDFWRU LQFUHDVHV ZLWK WLPH &RNH RQUHDFWRUVXUIDFHDORQJWKHOHQJWKRIUHDFWRU
WKLFNQHVV SURILOHV DORQJ WKH OHQJWK RI WKH DW025DQG(25LVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

 ,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R
7RZILJKL.DULP]DGHK6DGUDPHOL1LDHL6DHGL+RVHLQL0RIDUDKL0RNKWDUDQL

7DEOH ,QSXWGDWDRIQDSKWKDFUDFNHUIXUQDFHVLPXODWRU $UDN2OHILQ3ODQW)XUQDFH

)XUQDFH6SHFLILFDWLRQV
)LUH%R[ 5HDFWRU&RQILJXUDWLRQ
+HLJKW P  7RWDO/HQJWK P 
/HQJWK P  /HQJWKRI&RLO P 
'HSWK P  ,QWHUQDO([WHUQDOGLDPHWHU PP 
1XPEHURI%XUQHUV  /HQJWKRI&RLO P 
,QWHUQDO([WHUQDOGLDPHWHU PP 
7UDQVIHU/LQH([FKDQJHU 7/(

1RRI7/(  7XEH'LDPHWHU,'2' PP 


1RRI7XEHVLQ7/(  7XEH/HQJWK P 

)HHGDQG2SHUDWLQJ&RQGLWLRQ

1DSKWKD&RPSRVLWLRQ ZW

Q%XWDQH  WULPHWK\OEXWDQH 


LVR%XWDQH  %HQ]HQH 
Q3HQWDQH  7ROXHQH 
LVR3HQWDQH  3 P;\OHQH 
GLPHWK\OEXWDQH  &\FORKH[DQH 
GLPHWK\OEXWDQH  Q+HSWDQH 
&\FORSHQWDQH  GLPHWK\OSHQWDQH 
0HWK\OSHQWDQH  Q2FWDQH 
Q+H[DQH  LVR2FWDQH 
GL0HWK\OSHQWDQH  Q1RQDQH 
1DSKWKD)ORZ5DWH NJK  %RLOHU)HHG:DWHU %): 7HPS R& 

1DSKWKD,QOHW7HPS R& %):3UHVVXUH EDU 

6WHDPWR1DSKWKD5DWLR JJ  &RLO2XWOHW7HPS R& 

'LOXWLRQ6WHDP7HPS R&  0D[LPXP6NLQ7HPS R& 

)XHO&RPSRVLWLRQ PRO

+  ([FHVV$LU  
&+ 

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R 
6+$+$% $3& %DVHG«

7DEOH 2XWSXWUHVXOWVRIQDSKWKDFUDFNHUIXUQDFHVLPXODWRU $UDN2OHILQ3ODQW)XUQDFH


5XQ/HQJWK GD\V 
<LHOGRI3URGXFWV GU\ZW
6WDUWRI5XQ (QGRI5XQ
&RPSRQHQWV 6LPXODWLRQ 3ODQW 6LPXODWLRQ 3ODQW
+\GURJHQ    
0HWKDQH    
$FHW\OHQH    
(WK\OHQH    
(WKDQH    
0HWK\ODFHW\OHQH$OOHQH    
3URS\OHQH    
3URSDQH    
 %XWDGLHQH    
%XWHQH    
%XWDQH    
& )UDFWLRQ    
%HQ]HQH    
7ROXHQH    
;\OHQH(WK\OEHQ]HQH    
6W\UHQH    
&     
&DUERQ2[LGHV    

%):)RZ5DWH NJK    


)XHO)ORZUDWH NPROK    
7HPSRI&UDFNHG*DVDW    
7/(2XWOHW ž& 

&RQFOXVLRQ OHQJWK IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG WKH DPRXQW RI


6+$+$%LVD3&EDVHGVLPXODWRUGHYHORSHG VWHDPJHQHUDWHG
E\25*ZLWKWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVVLPXODWLRQRI 7KHVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWVDQGSODQWREVHUYDWLRQV
WKH UHDFWRU WKH ILUHER[ WKH FRQYHFWLRQ DJUHHYHU\ZHOO6LPXODWLRQVRIWKLVW\SHFDQ
VHFWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU OLQH H[FKDQJHU $ EH XVHG WR RSWLPL]H IXUQDFH RSHUDWLRQ IRU
FRPSOHWH UHDFWLRQ QHWZRUN XVLQJ D ULJRURXV YDULRXV IHHGVWRFNV DQG RSHUDWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV
NLQHWLF PRGHO IRU WKH GHFRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH 7KH\ FDQ EH XVHG DV D JXLGH IRU WKH
K\GURFDUERQ IHHGVWRFNV KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG DGDSWDWLRQ RI WKH RSHUDWLQJ YDULDEOHV DLPLQJ
DQG XVHG IRU VLPXODWLRQ RI WKHUPDO DWSURORQJLQJWKHUXQOHQJWKRIWKHIXUQDFH,W
K\GURFDUERQ FUDFNHUV $ FRNLQJ PRGHO FDQDOVREHXVHGIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHRSWLPDO
FRQVLGHULQJ  FRNH SUHFXUVRUV LV XVHG RSHUDWLQJ VWUDWHJ\ IRU GLIIHUHQW K\GURFDUERQ
7DNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH NLQHWLFV RI FRNH IHHGV FRQWUROLQJ IXHO IORZ UDWH RU
IRUPDWLRQ 6+$+$% SURYLGHV D GHWDLOHG K\GURFDUERQIHHGORDGDQGVRRQ)DUWKHULW
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI SURGXFW\LHOGV WHPSHUDWXUH FDQEHXVHGIRUWKHGHVLJQSXUSRVHDQGFDQEH
DQG SUHVVXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ FRNH WKLFNQHVV H[SHFWHG WR KHOS WR PD[LPL]H WKH SODQW
SURILOHVWXEHVNLQDQGUHIUDFWRU\WHPSHUDWXUH HIILFLHQF\DQGSURILW
SURILOHV IXUQDFH FRQGLWLRQV UHDFWRU UXQ

 ,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R
7RZILJKL.DULP]DGHK6DGUDPHOL1LDHL6DHGL+RVHLQL0RIDUDKL0RNKWDUDQL

$FNQRZOHGJPHQW 7KHDXWKRUVDFNQRZOHGJH E\ 13& $53& 73& $03& %,3&


WKH VXSSRUWRIWKHSURFHVVGDWDIRUWKLVZRUN SHWURFKHPLFDOFRPSDQLHVRI,UDQ

7DEOH ,QSXWGDWDRIHWKDQHFUDFNHUIXUQDFHVLPXODWRU %DQGDU,PDP2OHILQ3ODQW)XUQDFH

)XUQDFH6SHFLILFDWLRQV

)LUH%R[ 5HDFWRU&RQILJXUDWLRQ
+HLJKW P  7RWDO/HQJWK P 
/HQJWK P  ,QWHUQDO([WHUQDOGLDPHWHU PP 
'HSWK P 
1XPEHURI%XUQHUV 
7UDQVIHU/LQH([FKDQJHU 7/(

1RRI7/(  7XEH'LDPHWHU PP 
1RRI7XEHVLQ7/(  7XEH/HQJWK P

)HHGDQG2SHUDWLQJ&RQGLWLRQ

)HHG&RPSRVLWLRQ ZW

(WKDQH 
3URSDQH 
)HHG)ORZ5DWH NJK  %RLOHU)HHG:DWHU %): 7HPS R& 

)HHG,QOHW7HPS R&  %):3UHVVXUH EDU 

6WHDPWR)HHG5DWLR JJ  &RLO2XWOHW7HPS R& 

'LOXWLRQ6WHDP7HPS R&  0D[LPXP6NLQ7HPS R& 

)XHO&RPSRVLWLRQ PRO

+  ([FHVV$LU  
&+ 
&+ 

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R 
6+$+$% $3& %DVHG«

7DEOH 2XWSXWUHVXOWVRIHWKDQHFUDFNHUIXUQDFHVLPXODWRU %DQGDU,PDP2OHILQ3ODQW)XUQDFH


5XQ/HQJWK GD\V 
<LHOGRI3URGXFWV GU\ZW
6WDUWRI5XQ (QGRI5XQ
&RPSRQHQWV 6LPXODWLRQ 3ODQW 6LPXODWLRQ 3ODQW
+\GURJHQ    
0HWKDQH    
$FHW\OHQH    
(WK\OHQH    
(WKDQH    
0HWK\ODFHW\OHQH$OOHQH    
3URS\OHQH    
3URSDQH    
 %XWDGLHQH    
%XWHQH    
%XWDQH    
&     
&DUERQ2[LGHV    
%):)ORZ5DWH NJK    
)XHO)ORZUDWH NPROK    
7HPSRI&UDFNHGJDVDW    
7/(RXWOHW ž& 
+RWDQG&ROG)ORZV7HPSHUDWXUHVLQWKH&RQYHFWLRQ6HFWLRQ R&
%DQN1R
%):7HPS,Q2XW    
)REW)OXH*DV7HPS    
,Q2XW 6WDFN
%DQN1R
)HHG7HPS,Q2XW    
)OXH*DV7HPS,Q2XW    

 ,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R
7RZILJKL.DULP]DGHK6DGUDPHOL1LDHL6DHGL+RVHLQL0RIDUDKL0RNKWDUDQL

67($0

%):

)(('
%/2:'2:1

'6

352'8&7

)8(/

)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIDFUDFNLQJIXUQDFH

)(('

5(&<&/( &219(&7,21
67($0

7/;

5$',$7,21

5($&725
&5$&.('*$6

7&

)8(/

)LJXUH %ORFNGLDJUDPRI6+$+$%6LPXODWRU

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R 
6+$+$%$3&%DVHG«

)LJXUH 3URGXFW\LHOGVRIVWHDPFUDFNLQJRIQDSKWKD )LJXUH  3URILOH RI +HDW )OX[ LQ VWHDP FUDFNLQJ RI
QDSKWKDDW'LIIHUHQW5XQ7LPH

)LJXUH  3URILOH RI SURGXFW\LHOGV LQ WKH VWHDP


)LJXUH 3URILOHRI FRNHWKLFNQHVV LQ VWHDPFUDFNLQJ FUDFNLQJRIHWKDQH
RIQDSKWKD

)LJXUH 3URILOHRI 7XEH6NLQ 7HPSHUDWXUH LQ VWHDP )LJXUH &RNHWKLFNQHVVLQVWHDPFUDFNLQJRIHWKDQH


FUDFNLQJRIQDSKWKDDW'LIIHUHQW5XQ7LPH

 ,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R
7RZILJKL.DULP]DGHK6DGUDPHOL1LDHL 6DHGL+RVHLQL0RIDUDKL0RNKWDUDQL

1RPHQFODWXUH  (PLVVLYLW\ ZP .


$L $UHDRID]RQH P O /DWHQWKHDWRI YDSRUL]DWLRQ -NJ
&L &RQFHQWUDWLRQRIFRNH PROHP   3DUDPHWHURIWXEHEHQG
&S +HDWFDSDFLW\ -PROH. !F FRNHGHQVLW\ NJP 
GW 7XEHGLDPHWHU P V 6WHIDQ%ROW]PDQQFRQVWDQW ZP .
( %ODFNERG\HPLVVLYHSRZHU :P   7XEHSHULPHWHUDQJOH
(II )LQ(IILFLHQF\
) 0RODUIORZUDWH PROHKU 5HIHUHQFHV
)U )ULFWLRQIDFWRU  7RZILJKL - DQG .DULP]DGHK 5
* 7RWDO PDVV IOX[ RI WKH SURFHVV JDV ³'HYHORSPHQW RI D PHFKDQLVWLF PRGHO IRU
S\URO\VLV RI QDSKWKD ´ $3&&+( 
NJPV
&+(0(&$  0HOERXUQH $XVWUDOLD
KS 3URFHVV JDV FRQYHFWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW D 
:PR.  7RZILJKL-1D]DUL+DQG.DULP]DGHK5
KR 2XWVLGH FRQYHFWLRQ KHDW WUDQVIHU ³6LPXODWLRQ RI OLJKW K\GURFDUERQV S\URO\VLV
XVLQJ UDGLFDO PHFKDQLVP ´ $3&&+( 
FRHIILFLHQW :P  R. &+(0(&$  0HOERXUQH $XVWUDOLD
KL ,QVLGH FRQYHFWLRQ KHDW WUDQVIHU E 
FRHIILFLHQW :P  R.  1LDHL $ 7RZILJKL - 6DGUDPHOL 0 DQG
û++HDWRIUHDFWLRQ -PROH 0DVRXPL0(³&RPSXWDWLRQDOVWXG\RIWKH
S\URO\VLV UHDFWLRQV DQG FRNH GHSRVLWLRQ LQ
N 7KHUPDOFRQGXFWLYLW\RIWXEH ZP  RN LQGXVWULDO QDSKWKD FUDFNHUV ´ 7KH  ,QW
P 0DVVIORZUDWH NJK &RQI&RPSXWDWLRQDO6FLHQFH$SULO±
0P $YHUDJHPROHFXODUZHLJKW NJPROH $PVWHUGDP7KH1HWKHUODQGV  
1I 1XPEHURIILQVSHUXQLWOHQJWKRIWXEH  1LDHL $ 6XSSUHVVLRQ RI &RNH )RUPDWLRQ
1LM 6WRLFKLRPHWHU\IDFWRU LQ 7KHUPDO &UDFNLQJ E\ ,QKLELWRUV 3K '
1X 1XVVHOWQXPEHU WKHVLV WKHVLV 7DUELDW 0RGDUHV 8QLYHUVLW\
3U 3UDQGWOQXPEHU ,UDQ  
3W 7RWDOSUHVVXUH EDU  +H\QGHULFNV * - DQG )URPHQW * )
´6LPXODWLRQ DQG &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH UXQ
4 +HDWIOX[ :P  OHQJWK RI DQ HWKDQH FUDFNLQJ IXUQDFH ZLWK
U 7XEHUDGLXV P UHDFWRU WXEHV RI«´ ,QG (QJ &KHP 5HV
UH ([WHUQDOWXEHUDGLXV P   
UL ,QWHUQDOWXEHUDGLXV P   .RSLQNH)'  =LPPHUPDQQ* DQG 1RZDN
UFL &RNLQJ UHDFWLRQ UDWH RI SUHFXUVRU  L 6³2QWKHPHFKDQLVPRIFRNHIRUPDWLRQLQ
PROHP V VWHDP FUDFNLQJ FRQFOXVLRQV IURP UHVXOWV
5H 5H\QROGVQXPEHU REWDLQHGE\WUDFHUH[SHULPHQWV´&DUERQ
  
WF &RNHOD\HUWKLFNQHVV P
 .RSLQNH ) '  =LPPHUPDQQ* 5H\QHUV
W 7LPH KU * DQG )URPHQW * ) ³ 5HODWLYH UDWHV RI
7 7HPSHUDWXUH . FRNH IRUPDWLRQ IURP K\GURFDUERQV LQ VWHDP
7I )LQWKLFNQHVV FUDFNLQJ RI QDSKWKD  3DUDIILQV
8 2YHUDOOKHDWWUDQVIHUFRHIILFLHQW N-NJ QDSKWKHQHV«´  ,QG (QJ &KHP 5HV 
.P   D 
=L = M 7RWDOH[FKDQJHDUHDIURP]RQHLWRM  .RSLQNH )'  =LPPHUPDQQ * 5H\QHUV
= $[LDOUHDFWRUFRRUGLQDWH P *DQG)URPHQW*)³5HODWLYHUDWHVRIFRNH
IRUPDWLRQ IURP K\GURFDUERQV LQ VWHDP
*UHHN/HWWHUV FUDFNLQJ RI QDSKWKD  $URPDWLFV ´ ,QG
(QJ &KHP 5HV    E 
D FRNLQJIDFWRU
 7RZILJKL - 1LDHL $ DQG +RVVHLQL 6
D DEV JDVDEVRUWLYLW\ ZP . ³'HYHORSPHQW RI D NLQHWLF PRGHO IRU FRNH

,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R 
6+$+$%$3&%DVHG«

IRUPDWLRQ LQ S\URO\VLV RI QDSKWKD ´ ,UDQLDQ


- RI 6FL  7HFK 7UDQV %  1R%
 
 +RWWHO + & DQG 6DURILP $) 5DGLDWLYH
KHDW WUDQVIHU 0F*UDZ +LOO 1HZ <RUN
 
 6DGUDPHOL 0 ³+HDW WUDQVIH U FDOFXODWLRQ LQ
WKH ILUHER[ RI WKH HWK\OHQH SODQW IXUQDFHV´
,QW-RI(QJLQHHULQJ  
 5DR 095 3OHKHLUV 30 DQG )URPHQW *
) 7KH FRXSOHG VLPXODWLRQ RI KHDW WUDQVIHU
DQGUHDFWLRQLQDS\URO\VLVIXUQDFH´&KHP
(QJ6FL  

 ,UDQLDQ-RXUQDORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ9RO 1R

You might also like