AMSRS Invited commentary from industry figures.
I N V I TED CO MMEN TARY FRO M I N D USTRY FI GURES
The Future
of Market
Research
It is reasonable to assume that the current rapid
rate of change in technology and society is the
slowest we will experience in the rest of our
lives, and that this applies equally to market
research. The accelerating rate of change means
that detailed predictions about the mid-to-long-
term future are doomed to failure. Therefore, this
article looks at some short-term trends and big
issues the industry will need to tackle.
The best of all possible worlds
This phrase was coined by 18th Century German
philosopher and polymath Gottfried Leibniz; he meant
that the world we have and the chances it offers are the
best possible option. Despite the challenges facing our
industry, the opportunities for market researchers have
never been better. Rather than just aim to survive, if we
embrace change, if we utilise the new and keep the best
of the old, we will do well. We must aim to thrive!
The power and peril of observational data
The deluge of observational data is changing the research
landscape. Mobile phone data tell us about where people
are, how they travel, who they connect with and much
more. Web data tells us about what people see, what
they do, what they buy, what they say and more. CCTV,
wearables, Internet-of-Things, bank data, loyalty cards,
provide an ever more complete picture of what people do,
moving our data from samples to near census.
16 Research News October 2016
The positives are many and often obvious. We
don’t have to ask people to recall behaviour, we
can measure it. The price of this data is low and
falling. Google has become extremely rich by using
observational data to create predictive models of
what people want and using that to sell targeted
advertising. Retailers use predictive models based on
large-scale purchase data to design well-timed product
offers and campaigns.
There are three great challenges with
observational data:
1. The why? Observing behaviour does not explain why
the behaviour is happening or how we might change
it, for example if we are trying to persuade people to
buy more of a product or to start buying a different
product. MR can help.
2. Inside the box. Observational data explains the world
as it is, not how it might be. It struggles to predict
what will happen when a new product or service is
offered, or when one is removed. MR has challenges
in this area too, but it is better placed to help than
observational data.
3. Without experimentation there is no causation.
Models based on observational data are unable
to determine causality – everything is essentially
correlation. Market researchers are well placed to
design experiments to help establish causal links
between marketing and outcomes.

The rise of the machine
MR has always been quick to adopt new technology-
punch cards over 100 years ago, telephony,
computerized tabulations, online data collection
and mobile technology. The use of automation is
accelerating and will have a profound impact on
business models, the way research is conducted and
the employment of many people who thought their
professional and/or creative skills left them immune.
I expect something like 40-60% of current market
research jobs to disappear over the next ten years,
and something like 20-30% new jobs to be created.
Tasks I see declining are scripting, sampling, charting
and even report writing (AI is already making
inroads). I see an expansion in roles like customer
success managers, analysts who will utilise new and
powerful AI assisted tools and brand new roles for
people using new tools to turn insight into action.
The companies and people who will be the most
successful will be those who build their business
models based on automated research tools. This will
require more standardization, more use of expert
systems, and a belief that the data cannot speak
for itself. I forecast that research will be faster and
cheaper, and when used properly it will be better
in the sense of helping businesses make better
decisions.
Being in the Prediction Business Market
researchers can learn a lot from Nate Silver
(fivethirtyeight.com):
• Not assuming we need to collect data – data
aggregation can be really powerful.
• Create models that combine multiple data streams
to produce better predictions.
• Assess what is predictable (e.g. baseball and
the weather) and what is not (e.g. soccer and
earthquakes).
A subtler, but even more powerful lesson, relates
to how Silver applies his skills. His models predict
election results as well or better than the pollsters.
But, he sees his business as predicting, not polling. He
also successfully predicts sports and a range of topics
like Oscar winners.
Market researchers are also in the prediction
business. The power that is being unleashed through
new software, apps, the Internet-of-things, new
thinking, behavioural economics and neuroscience
1. www.esomar.org Global Market Research Report 2015
3. 2011. Thinking Fast, and Slow. Penguin, UK. 4. https://whywereason.com/tag/antonio-damasio/
I N V I TED COMMEN TARY FRO M I N D US TRY F I G URES
can and should be used for more than just classic
market research. We should be knocking on the
doors of HR, NPD, Operations, Finance, IT and the
C-suite to shout about our ability to make evidence-
based predictions. Our core strength may arise from
dealing with customer data, but we can apply those
techniques more widely, along with our ability to
re-frame business problems in ways that support
evidence-based decision making.
The continued decline of surveys
Surveys are in decline as a share of research 1, though
they will not disappear anytime soon. Key drivers of
change include:
• Newer alternatives, such as passive data, online
discussions, crowdsourced solutions, and social
media.
• Decreasing representativeness and quality of
sample sources, especially online access panels.
The recent GRIT Study2 found that 38% of market
researchers and insight users thought that sample
quality would get worse over the next three years,
with just a quarter thinking sample quality would
improve.
• The negative impact of long and boring surveys,
the decline in co-operation and the potential
alienation of customers when brands ‘spam’ them
with unwelcome surveys.
• The inappropriateness of many types of surveys,
given what we have learned from the likes of
Kahneman3 and Damasio4, e.g. we are poor
witnesses to our own behaviour and motivations;
the way questions are asked changes answers,
and most decisions are the result of emotions not
rational cognition. Surveys tend to be rational and
assume self-knowledge.
A skill not an industry
MR is somewhere between a profession and an
industry. Most MR is conducted and sold by global
MR companies, and nearly half of this by just six
organisations 1. This will change with a blurring of
MR, business intelligence, data science and marketing
– and a growth in non-research organisations
offering research.
Google is listed by the GRIT report2 as both an
innovative buyer of research and an innovative
2. www.greenbook.org/grit
Research News October 2016 17
 AMSRS Invited commentary from industry figures.
I N V I TED CO MMEN TARY FRO M I N D USTRY FI GURES
supplier of research. Google, Facebook and other
online advertising platforms are gaining an ever-
larger share of the measurement, research and
prediction business in terms of digital marketing and
communications.
The skills of the market researcher (framing a
business problem as a research problem, designing
research, gleaning insight and providing business
advice) will increasingly be in demand. But most
researchers will not be working in a ‘MR company’
or ‘MR department’. Already, most client-side
departments have become insight teams. They will
expand to be problem solving, data using, insight
generating groups over the next ten years.
Dialectic, change and industry codes
The process of dialectic is based on the optimum
outcome being achieved by both (or all) sides of
an argument being put as strongly as possible.
Traditionally MR codes of conduct have been a top-
down affair. The ‘great and the good’ sought to create
rules and recommendations that ensure that MR
is conducted ethically in the interests of all parties
(citizens, businesses and market researchers). This
grew out of the situation 70+ years ago, where there
were no rules and most people did not know about
MR. Change does not invalidate market researchers
and their trade bodies resisting those changes they
feel are unhelpful for clients or research participants,
or bad for ‘science’ or the interests of people working
in MR. It makes sense for trade bodies to defend MR
ethics and to promote their application to an ever-
wider group of people.
But change is inevitable. Currently most research
and insight trade bodies argue for self-regulation
(because we know more about how to regulate
ourselves than politicians do.) However, the days of
self-regulation are numbered.
The public is losing confidence in banks regulating
banks, advertisers regulating advertising and
CEO’s regulating CEO remuneration. Citizens, and
in particular customers, expect to be in control.
Informed consent has always been a key part of
MR codes, but in the future it will be the overriding
element of all data collection. If people want to be
18 Research News October 2016
sold to as part of research, they will have the right
to request it, if people want to exchange masses of
data to receive a reward they will be able to, if people
spend their own money as part of a research project
(as some of the newer ‘research’ markets require
them to do) they can.
MR companies are increasingly competing with
non-research companies who are not bound by these
codes, so their relevance is quickly disappearing.
In future it will not be tenable for MR experts to tell
clients what research they should and should not do,
and it will not be tenable to tell customers that we
know best.
Optimising your options
Given all the changes, how should market
researchers optimise their options? Whilst there are
no silver bullets, I suggest the following.
T-shaped workers
T-shaped workers have a broad knowledge of
many things and a deep knowledge of at least one
specialisation. In the MR context, this means having
a good, broad understanding of MR (including
the traditional parts) and a deep understanding
of a relevant area. As long as the deep area is not
something in imminent decline (e.g. face-to-face
interviewer training) it does not matter too much
what the area is. My top picks for deep skills are
data analytics, advanced qualitative techniques, and
project design.
Business focus
Traditionally market researchers saw themselves
as methodologists, somebody whose skills could
be used across a wide range of businesses, from
pharma to auto, from baby to tech, and from finance
to FMCG. The modern market researcher is focused
on helping the business make better decisions, this
means being focused on the business problems
and context. The modern market researcher needs
to work collaboratively with other groups having
complementary skills to produce better business
outcomes.
 I N V I TED COMMEN TARY FRO M I N D US TRY F I G URES
Being an automation winner, not a loser on-year for the foreseeable future, automating
Automation will re-shape MR/insight and many jobs processes and developing partnerships with clients
will change or disappear. Our best option is to lead that create value.
the adoption of these new automation tools. The 3. For market researchers, it means becoming an
savvy market researcher will press for their part of acknowledged T-shaped worker – ensuring you
the business to be a pathfinder for automation, they have the wide awareness and deep knowledge
will seek out new opportunities and they will seek to of an area, and being business focused. It means
align their T-shaped skills with these new realities. becoming an automation winner – looking for new
solutions, working on pilot schemes and using
Most people should focus on fast and cheap automation to expand your personal productivity.
The growth in MR will be fuelled by research that
is fast and cheap enough to be used more and more
often. Business and much of the public sector want
more evidence-based decision making and expect
that to be facilitated by timely and cost-effective Ray Poynter
research. This does not mean that profit and wages
Ray has spent the last 35 years at the interface of
must or should decline – it means prices will decline.
market research, innovation and technology. Ray is
Automation, standardisation, smarter processes and the author of The Handbook of Online and Social
design need to ensure that results can be delivered Media Research and The Handbook of Mobile Market
that are scalable and protect both profit and salaries. Research, the founder of NewMR.org, and a frequent
speaker, chair and workshop leader at market research
The craft research business events around the world.
We have seen how craft beer and artisanal baking
have prospered at the same time as mass production.
Great researchers will have the chance to shun the
fast and cheap by focusing on problems that cannot
be solved this way. Clients will only use these craft
solutions when cheaper/faster solutions don’t work
AND where the problem needs to be answered – but
there will be plenty of these situations. In terms
of pricing models we will see a hollowing out of
the middle, there will be a massive growth of the
cheaper/faster type of research and respectable
growth in high cost, craft research.

Final thoughts
The future can be really good for market researchers.
1. For Insight departments, the key is going to be
their integration into more parts of the business, in
promoting evidence-based decision making, and in
widening their role from customer-related insight
to a broader concept of insight.
2. For MR companies, it means forming alliances with
new companies and non-MR companies, realising
that prices for most types of research will fall year-

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