HOW TO CALCULATE OUTCOME/FUTURE OF CHANGE INITIATIVE?

In DICE equation, all the above-mentioned factors are combined to calculate the
probability of success of change initiative. Factors are graded in score from 1-4 where 1 being
the best and 4 is the worst. Organization should adjust according to their own needs and
requirements.  To understand scoring of factors or variables, an example is given below in the
matrix.
Factors Questions Score
Duration How often does review of Review happens in 1 month =
change initiative happens? 1
Does it happen regularly? Review happens in 2 months
How long it will take to = 2
complete project? Review happens in 3 months
= 3
Review happens in 4 months
=4
Integrity Does change leader and its Team possess 80% or more
team possess required skills than required skills = 1
and experience? Team possess 60% or more
Does change leader and its than required skills = 2
team possess required Team possess 40% or more
motivation level? than required skills = 3
Team possess 20% or more
than required skills = 4
Commitment Does senior management Clarity of message at
Senior level (C1) effectively communicate to excellent level =1
team on purpose of change? Clarity of message at good
Is the message is convincing? level =2
Clarity of message at
ordinary level =3
Clarity of message at poor
level =4
Commitment Are employees given Relationship between team is
Senior level (C2) opportunities to share their at excellent level =1
feedback? Relationship between team is
Are they supportive to change at good level =2
leaders to implement the Relationship between team is
change initiative? at ordinary level =3
Relationship between team is
at poor level =4
Effort How much extra work will be If the extra workload is below
performed by employees? 10% = 1
Are the employees If the extra workload is 10-
comfortable with the extra 20% = 2
work? If the extra workload is 20-
30% = 3
If the extra workload is 30-
40% = 4
 DICE EQUATION TO CALCULATE SUCCESS SCORE
Following is the DICE equation which help to calculate the success score of any change
initiative:
DICE Score = D + (2xI) + (2xC1) + C2 + E
By using the aforementioned equation, you may have a DICE score between 7 and 28.
Here is how to see the results and predict the future.
 If you get 7-14, then your project is a success
 If you get 14-17, then you are under the risk of failure
 If you get 17 and more, be careful, as you are too near to losing the game
ADVANTAGES OF DICE FRAMEWORK
 DICE framework use hard factors which are easy to measure. On the other hand, it is
difficult to measure soft factors. 
 These factors can be easily communicated and influenced and which increase the chances
of success.
 It is the first framework which provide leaders with a scientific evidence to implement
change or make alteration in the plan to avoid failure.
 It also helps leaders to assess and evaluate change initiative and take informed decisions.
DISADVANTAGES OF DICE FRAMEWORK

 This framework completely ignores the soft factors which are equally important to be
taken into account for change to happen.  

 It is difficult to score factors on objective basis; one can be subjective which can
negatively impact the result.

 This framework only provides with the assessment of change project or its feasibility but
it does not offer solutions and strategies about how to execute change project.