Climate Change and

Urban Green Spaces

Neighbourhoods, Cities and

Regions Analysis Division
(NCRA)

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-1-
Contents

PURPOSE OF PAPER......................................................................................3
SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS.....................................................................3
Climate Change in the UK.............................................................................4
Expected climate change in the UK...........................................................4
Effect on urban areas.................................................................................5
Attitudes to climate change........................................................................6
Adaptation and Mitigation..............................................................................6
Adaptation...................................................................................................6
Mitigation....................................................................................................6
Interaction of mitigation and adaptation strategies....................................6
EVIDENCE ON ADAPTATION..........................................................................7
Cooling...........................................................................................................7
Water Management........................................................................................9
Biodiversity...................................................................................................10
Spatial Context Of Green Spaces................................................................10
Adaptation Strategies at Different Scales....................................................11
EVIDENCE ON MITIGATION..........................................................................11
Absorption Of Pollutants..............................................................................11
Influencing behaviour...................................................................................12
IMPLICATIONS FOR URBAN GREEN SPACES...........................................13
Limited water resources...............................................................................13
Longer growing season................................................................................14
Drier summers..............................................................................................14
Increased use of urban green spaces.........................................................14
More storm damage.....................................................................................14
More land instability.....................................................................................14
Effect on maintenance costs........................................................................15
WIDER IMPLICATIONS..................................................................................15
Planning policies..........................................................................................15
Deprivation and environmental exclusion....................................................16
Urban depopulation......................................................................................17
Insurance costs increase.............................................................................17
Community Engagement.............................................................................17
Management................................................................................................17
FURTHER SUGGESTIONS............................................................................18

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-2-
PURPOSE OF PAPER
This paper draws together evidence from research on climate change and
urban green spaces. It first sets out the key expected changes arising from
climate change to provide a context. It then explores the roles of urban green
spaces in adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, followed by the
likely implications for green spaces themselves and wider issues.

The purpose of the paper is to provide a reference point for CLG and other
organisations to the evidence base on the interaction between urban green
spaces and climate change. This should enable focussed work and avoid
duplication to strengthen the evidence base and to respond to the issues that
it raises so far.

This is intended to be a ‘live’ document that is shared and can be added to by

others as work in this area evolves. It is not a statement of CLG or others’
policy or intentions. We therefore welcome comments on the contents and
uses of this document.

SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS

All green spaces help urban areas adapt to the impact of climatic
change regardless of whether they are parks, private gardens or street trees,
but the size, quality and shape of a space, vegetation type and proportion of
coverage all influence the level of impact.

Modelling work based on Manchester suggested that adding 10 per cent

green cover kept maximum surface temperatures in high density
residential areas and town centres on the hottest summer days at or
below the 1961-1990 level (the baseline projections are based on).
However, removing 10 per cent green cover from these areas increased
maximum surface temperatures by up to 8.2oC by the 2080s, assuming the
highest emissions scenario.

There is evidence that open space within towns and cities, rather than
as a green belt, might be more effective in helping adaptation, as it can
provide shade, flood storage, improve infiltration rates and reduce run-off.
This clearly has implications for policies to encourage infill development,
higher housing densities and the reduction or loss of gardens.

Policies could be used to encourage the optimal structure and

composition of urban green space through green space strategies. It
might also be possible to encourage people to adapt their behaviour through
education, social pressure and incentives. However, there are other factors,

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-3-
such as soil type, which it would not be possible to influence. Further analysis
on how behaviour can be influenced is needed.

As climate change increases, green spaces are likely to become

increasingly important, especially to relieve the effects of raised
temperatures. For example, green spaces will become oases of cool air, and
outdoor spaces are likely to be used more for recreational activities including
events.

The most significant role of urban green spaces in mitigation of climate

change is likely to be influencing people's behaviour so that they reduce
their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.

A different climate, though, will have implications for the costs of, and
approaches to, maintaining spaces such as increased watering during
droughts, greater pressure on spaces as they are used more intensively and
an effect on the health of some species of vegetation. Urban green spaces
need to be well maintained to be effective e.g. if a drought makes grass dry
and bare it will have less of a cooling effect.

Climate change is a complex area. Clear guidance is needed for local

authorities and other practitioners on how best to manage public urban
green spaces in order to respond to climate change.

Climate Change in the UK

Expected climate change in the UK

The United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) has run a series of
projections to look at what the temperature and other climate parameters
might be under future emission scenarios. Four scenarios were considered;
low, medium low, medium high and high. Three time periods, 2020's, 2050's
and 2080's, are compared to the baseline 1961 to 1990. 1

There is general consensus amongst experts that temperatures will increase,

there will be more dramatic events such as floods and storms, summers will
be warmer and drier, winters will be warmer and wetter, and sea levels will
rise. Estimates suggest that by 2050 temperatures across the British Isles will
have increased by at least one and a half degrees Centigrade. By 2080 it
could be up by four and a half degrees Centigrade. 2 There will also be
changes to the hydrological regime leading to a greater risk of flood from sea,
rivers and the surface water drainage system. Table 1 shows a summary of
expected changes.

1
Discussed in Sarah Lindley, Spatial Analysis Specialist, University of Manchester, speaking
at conference 'A Climate of Change' Manchester September 2006
2
Sarah Lindley, Spatial Analysis Specialist, University of Manchester, speaking at conference
'A Climate of Change' Manchester September 2006

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-4-
Table 1 Summary of expected climate change in the UK 3
Temperature  Annual warming by the end of the century of between
1 C and 5oC depending on emission scenario
o

 Greater summer warming in the southeast than in the

northwest
 Increase in the number of very hot days
 Decrease in the number of very cold days
Precipitation  Generally wetter winters for the whole of the UK (by up
to 30 per cent), and increases in winter precipitation
intensity
 The risk of flooding from rivers and the sea will at least
double by the 2080s, and could increase by up to 20
times4
 Substantially drier summers
Soil moisture  Decreases in summer and autumn, especially in the
southeast
Sea level  Global average sea level will continue to rise for
several centuries
 There will be significant regional differences in relative
sea level rise around the UK
 For some coastal locations and some scenarios, storm
surges will become more important

Effect on urban areas

Urban areas, where the majority of the population live, will warm more than
rural ones because buildings absorb heat5. There are significant temperature
differences between city centres and their surrounding countryside and
surface temperatures can be up to 6oC greater in high density suburbs
compared to low density suburbs. The concentration of buildings and urban
areas during urbanisation leads to the formation of a specific climate
characterised by higher night time temperatures, restriction of wind which
disperses pollutants and increased run-off, i.e. 'urban heat islands'.

Climate change provides opportunities as well as threats for urban green

spaces. For example, it provides an opportunity to remodel or create outdoor
spaces. The need to manage high temperatures and reduce the impacts of
floods and droughts justifies the creation and maintenance of green
infrastructure. Urban green spaces also play a role in improving air quality
and preserving biodiversity.6

3
Adapted from: TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design', plus additional
information from Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate
change: the role of the green infrastructure'
4
Foresight (2004) 'Future Flooding'
5
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'
6
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-5-
Attitudes to climate change
Concern about climate change is high amongst the general population.
Almost nine out of 10 people (88 per cent) recognise that the climate is
changing and almost half of people (44 per cent) are very concerned about
climate change. Seven out of ten people (70 per cent) believe that if there is
no change the world will soon experience a major environmental crisis. A
similar proportion (66 per cent) think that the Government has a large
influence on limiting climate change.7

Adaptation and Mitigation

Adaptation
Carbon dioxide has a long shelf life so the climate change which will occur
over the next 40 years is already determined and, although the opinion about
the scale of the problem differs, many experts agree that it is unstoppable.
Adaptation concerns preparing for inevitable climate change. Urban
green spaces can help to alleviate the consequences of climate change
through:
 Cooling
 Water management, and
 Providing a habitat for biodiversity.

Mitigation
Mitigation is the act of limiting further climate change, for example by
reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Although sources vary on the
precise contribution, there is evidence that urban green spaces can mitigate
the impacts of climate change through:
 Absorption of pollutants, including greenhouse gases, and
 Influencing people's behaviour in order to reduce emissions of green
house gases.

Interaction of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Although adaptation is seen as the current priority as it is generally accepted
that climate change is inevitable, mitigation should be considered at the same
time to reduce further climate change experienced in future decades, and
adaptation strategies should not increase carbon emissions further.
Adaptation strategies based on urban green spaces can provide multiple
benefits, for example, improving biodiversity and managing flood risk, or it can
meet one objective but go against another, for example, narrow, tall streets
alleviate heat risks during the summer but increase winter gloom.

Ideally it would be preferable as well as cheaper to consider both adaptation

to and mitigation of climate change when designing places but around 90 to
95 per cent of the infrastructure is already built so there is a significant need

7
IPSOS MORI (2007) Tipping Point or Turning Point; Social Marketing and Climate Change

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-6-
for retrofit.8 As the lifetime of a building tends to be between 20 and 100
years, opportunities for adaptation should be taken as they arise. 9

EVIDENCE ON ADAPTATION
The Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology at the University of Manchester
carried out a programme of work on Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change
in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE). One strand focused on urban green
space and one of the aims was to investigate the potential of green spaces to
adapt cities to climate change, based on aerial photographs and modelling.
Findings suggest that all urban green space has an impact and that the
shape, quality, size and soil type all matter. In particular, patches of green
space in towns and cities can be important for rainwater infiltration and
reducing run-off.

Cooling

It is air temperature rather than surface area which influences human

comfort10 but air temperature is difficult to model and influence so ground
temperature is often used as an indicator. Urban green spaces can act as
'park cool islands' by cooling air. A London study found temperatures to be,
on average, 0.6oC cooler in the park than on neighbouring streets over a 12
hour period. This compared to a shopping street with no shading which was
3°C warmer than the centre of the park11. Work on Greater Manchester12
found that the surface area of woodland was 12.8 oC cooler than the town
centre.

Modelling work based on Manchester suggested that adding 10 per cent

green cover kept maximum surface temperatures in high density residential
areas and town centres on the hottest summer days at or below the 1961-
1990 level (the baseline projections are based on). However, removing 10
per cent green cover from these areas increased maximum surface
temperatures by up to 8.2oC by the 2080s, assuming the highest emissions
scenario.13

8
Andrew Tucker, London Climate Change Partnership Manager, Greater London Authority,
speaking at conference 'A Climate of Change' Manchester September 2006
9
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
10
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE) Work
package 5 Urban Greenspace
11
Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology (2004) Literature Review: Impacts of Climatic
Change on Urban Environments DRAFT
12
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE) Work
package 5 Urban Greenspace
13
ASCCUE WP 5 Urban Greenspace Summary

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-7-
Even small spaces can have a cooling effect - parks only 1 or 2 hectares have
been found to be 2oC cooler than surrounding areas14. The extent of the
cooling effect is greatest when temperatures beyond the park are highest 15.
As climate change increases and temperatures rise the cooling effect of urban
green spaces will become increasingly important16. As the UK has a mobile
oceanic climate, 'urban heat islands' are not so extreme as in the US and
Europe where much of the research has been carried out. But in the South
East, at least, the frequency of extreme summers and heat waves will
increase as climate change sets in.

The spread of the benefits can decrease with distance from the park.
Research based on Tel Aviv found that the cooling effect of green space can
be felt up to 100m from the site and the shape of green space can have an
impact on cooling.17 Green spaces that lie higher than surrounding land
achieve wider influence, as do those with greater tree cover. For example,
green corridors can be used to channel air into a city from surrounding
forested slopes18.

Trees, especially when located close to buildings, can act as natural air
conditioners and provide shading through evapotranspiration, therefore
reducing energy consumption required to maintain comfortable temperatures.
Evapotranspiration is the exchange of water between plants, soil and the
atmosphere. Research on Merseyside found that places where vegetation
cover was 50 per cent were 7oC cooler than areas where there was 15 per
cent vegetation cover19. Research in Camden and Newark showed that
planting trees in urban areas is a viable and economically efficient way of
reducing urban heat islands.20 A mix of conifers and deciduous trees would
be preferable for year-round benefits. The shade provided by mature trees
can keep surfaces cooler by as much as 15.6 oC.21

However, careful management and maintenance of green spaces is required.

Green spaces which are permitted to dry out and lose soil moisture actually
result in a higher absorption of day time solar energy and higher night time
radiation adding to the urban heat island effect. 22 Similarly, inappropriately
sited trees could lead to increases in subsidence which can be affected by
14
Upmanis, H (2000) The park has its own climate
15
Shashua-Bar, L and Hoffman, M.E. (2000) Vegetation as a climatic component in the
design of an urban street: an empirical model for predicting the cooling effect of urban green
areas with trees
16
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE) Work
package 5 Urban Greenspace
17
Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology (January 2004) Literature Review: Impacts of
Climate Change on Urban Environments
18
Loesner, G. (1978) ‘An air quality planning program with visible results’. Practising Planner
19
Whitford, V et al (2001) City Form and natural processes - indicators for ecological
performance of urban areas and their application for Merseyside, UK
20
LCCP (2006) Adapting to climate change; lessons for London
21
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
22
Correspondence with Cabe Space

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-8-
tree roots and drier summers.23 Tree roots are cited in at least 80 per cent of
subsidence claims on shrinkable clay soils, yet even on clay soils the risk of a
tree causing damage is less than 1 per cent24 which suggests that trees are
often incorrectly blamed for subsidence.

Water Management

Hard surfaces increase the rate and volume of runoff of rainwater resulting in
flash flooding. Green space can help with water management as it provides a
permeable surface, reducing surface run-off into drains and therefore lowers
the risk of flooding during peak flows. In addition green spaces allow water to
filter down and replenish groundwater. Vegetation also intercepts more rain
thereby reducing the likelihood of flash flooding 25. The numerous leaves of
plants and trees provide a greater area for water to evaporate from 26 than flat
surfaces.

Modelling based on Greater Manchester suggested that increasing green

cover by 10 per cent in residential areas reduces runoff from these areas by
4.9 per cent in the highest rainfall scenarios predicted in the 2080s.
Increasing tree cover by a similar 10 per cent would reduce runoff by 5.7 per
cent.27

However, green space alone will not be able to cope with the estimated
increases in rainfall and subsequent runoff so storage provision for runoff also
needs to be considered. Sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) are
designed to slow the movement of rainwater between where it falls and where
it is discharged into a watercourse. Techniques such as swales, permeable
pavements, gravel or grass, infiltration, detention and retention in ponds could
be employed. This water could then be used to irrigate green spaces in order
to maintain their cooling effects 28.

Specifically, ponds and other bodies of water can be used for water storage
and water surfaces stay cool during droughts 29. In addition dry ponds and
grassed areas could be used to store flood water 30. Sutcliffe Park in
Greenwich took an innovative approach to flood management and de-
23
http://www.abi.org.uk/Display/File/Child/506/Financial_Risks_of_Climate_Change.pdf
24
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
25
National Urban Forestry Unit (2005) Trees Matter: bringing lasting benefits to people in
towns
26
Whitford, V et al (2001) City Form and natural processes - indicators for ecological
performance of urban areas and their application for Merseyside, UK
27
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
28
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
29
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE) Work
package 5 Urban Greenspace
30
Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology (2004) Literature Review: Impacts of Climatic
Change on Urban Environments DRAFT

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

-9-
culverted a river in an underused park. This additionally brought social
benefits as the number of visits to the park increased and the park had a more
natural habitat31.

Biodiversity

The ecosystem is finely tuned with plant and animal species highly
interdependent on each other for survival. Urban green spaces provide
valuable habitats for animals and plants but species can respond strongly to
environmental change. There is a need for wildlife corridors within towns and
cities to help plants and animals move in response to climate change. Urban
areas need to be permeable to wildlife; private gardens as well as parks and
other urban green spaces including verges can help with this. 32 The existence
of water areas can also encourage biodiversity.

Spatial Context Of Green Spaces

Not only is the quantity of green space important but also their spatial context.
Green infrastructure is made up of corridors, patches and the overall matrix 33.
Corridors can contribute to flood storage, as can patches although to a lesser
extent. Both the matrix and patches can aid rainwater infiltration, especially
on sandy, faster infiltrating soils - this suggests there might be a case for
restricting landfill development on these types of soil because of the
contribution they can make to rainwater infiltration if they are kept as green
spaces. Patches of green space and the overall matrix can provide cooling
oases.34

Due to higher car ownership more homeowners are concreting over front
gardens to create parking spaces which will increase run-off into drains. This
affects both the amount and distribution of green spaces in built up areas 35.

The Greater London Authority has developed a Green Grid Programme of

green space enhancements to encourage strategic flood risk management in
the East London Thames Gateway using green spaces. 36 The benefits of a
linked network of well-irrigated open spaces, including parks, street trees,
sports fields, village greens and private gardens, can be also be ecological
and recreational.37

31
Goode, D (March 2006) 'Green infrastructure: report to the Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution
32
Countryside Agency
33
Forman, R.T.T. and Godron, M. (1986) Landscape Ecology, cited in Gill. S, J. Handley, R
Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of the green
infrastructure'
34
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
35
GLA (2005) 'Crazy Paving; the environmental importance of London's front gardens'
36
LCCP (2006) Adapting to climate change; lessons for London
37
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 10 -
Adaptation Strategies at Different Scales

Adaptation strategies need to respond to local environmental, social and

economic conditions but there is a relationship between large-scale strategic
adaptations strategies at the conurbation scale and the smaller scale.
Different strategies will be appropriate for different types of areas, for
example, rural-urban fringes will have the space required for large scale flood
storage.38

Table 2: Adaptation strategies at different spatial levels 39

Conurbation or catchment scale To serve the whole city and likely to
deal with a variety of land use types
Eg. networks of open space
Embed strategies within e.g. Spatial
Strategies, Community Strategy, Open
Space Strategy, Local Development
Framework (LDF)
Neighbourhood scale Adapting space between buildings
Eg. groups of dwellings or estates
Solutions developed through LDF, Open
Space Strategy, site brief or Masterplan
Building scale Providing opportunities for integrating
climate change adaptation into or
around buildings
Eg. orientation of individual buildings
Design or building codes are useful tools

EVIDENCE ON MITIGATION
Absorption Of Pollutants

Although the main climatic benefits of urban green space is cooling and
shading, vegetation and soils, particularly trees, can counter poor air quality
by absorbing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and other air
pollutants, i.e. green space can act as 'carbon sinks'. Trees take in carbon
dioxide during photosynthesis and store carbon until they are burnt or die.
This can be especially effective if trees are located close to a pollution
source40. Soils will generally also store carbon, especially rich, organic soils
such as peat.41

Different types of tree absorb different levels of pollutants. A healthy semi-

mature Douglas fir forest can absorb 4 metric tonnes of carbon per hectare
38
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'
39
Adapted from TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'
40
Brown, S et al Carbon Sinks for Abating Climate Change: Can they work?
41
Correspondence with Countryside Agency

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 11 -
per year, compared to around 2.5 tonnes for beech 42. Stock diversity is
needed to ensure long-term survival.43 Some experts suggest large areas of
green space are required to have a significant mitigation effect and, as trees
release carbon when they are burnt or rot, may only act as a temporary
means of carbon storage. Similarly, when soils are disturbed they will also
lose their carbon content to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. 44

In the UK half a hectare of woodland over one rotation could compensate for
the car fuel consumed over an average driver's lifetime 45. It is estimated that
an area the size of a football pitch would be needed to counter the CO 2
emissions of an average person in the UK. 46

Influencing behaviour

Improving the quality of urban green spaces to ensure they are well-planned,
safe and appealing could encourage people to walk or cycle rather than use
cars for short journeys, and indeed provide for recreation and access to
nature nearer to home. This would help reduce carbon emissions.

Vegetation can be used to cool buildings thereby reducing the need for
mechanical air conditioning47. US research found that shelter and shade from
trees can save up to 10 per cent of energy needed to heat and cool nearby
buildings.48 Research in the UK suggested that savings for a residential
property might be about 3 per cent.49 To a lesser extent, the use of allotments
and community gardens to grow fruit and vegetables could help reduce food
miles, albeit on a relatively modest scale, which would again reduce carbon
emissions.

A longer, warmer summer season in Britain is likely to encourage people to

stay in Britain for holidays rather than fly abroad. This is evidenced by the
higher numbers of people staying at home following the hot summer of
1995.50 In hot weather people tend to go to coastal locations but ensuring

42
Broadmeadow, M and Matthews R (2003) Forests, Carbon and Climate Change: the UK
Contribution
43
National Urban Forestry Unit (2005) Trees Matter: bringing lasting benefits to people in
towns
44
Correspondence with Countryside Agency
45
Broadmeadow, M (2006) Presentation to Natural England workshop on carbon
management
46
National Urban Forestry Unit (2005) Trees Matter: bringing lasting benefits to people in
towns
47
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
48
National Urban Forestry Unit (2005) Trees Matter: bringing lasting benefits to people in
towns
49
Trees, Shelter and Energy Conservation’, Arboriculture Research and Information Note
145, AAIS1998
50
Climate Change and the Visitor Economy; Challenges and opportunities for England's North
West

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 12 -
there are high quality urban green spaces close to where people live could
reduce this.

In addition it may be possible to use community engagement in green spaces

to raise awareness about climatic change and the role individuals can play
(e.g. reducing energy waste, water use, offsetting). Urban green spaces
could be used to educate and convey information about climatic change which
could result in changes in behaviour.

IMPLICATIONS FOR URBAN GREEN SPACES

Although it is clear that urban green spaces have a role in adapting urban
areas to climate change and, to a lesser extent, can make a contribution to
mitigating climate change by helping to encourage people to amend their
behaviour, the implications for urban green spaces themselves are
considerable.

Limited water resources

Climate change is expected to lead to more droughts with summers expected

to be 35 to 50 per cent drier,51 have more consecutive dry days and longer
heatwaves. This will mean a greater need for urban green spaces to be
watered; dried out grassed areas are less effective at cooling through
evaporation52 and they can take on the qualities of hard surfaces in terms of
absorbing rainwater. Grass is most likely to be affected by drought due to its
shallow roots.

As hose pipe bans are directed at domestic users, it is legally acceptable to

water parks but local authorities might have a moral obligation not to.
However, during a non-essential uses ban it would usually not be possible to
water parks. Currently, water companies expect to use a non-essential uses
ban about once in 35 years in the North of England and once every 20 years
in the South.53 These expectations are likely to change given the increasing
likelihood of droughts.

Planting drought resistant plants is not the answer as some varieties would
downplay the value urban green spaces would contribute to adapting to
climate change.54 Instead methods which allow rainwater harvesting, the re-

51
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE) Work
package 5 Urban Greenspace
52
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
53
Richard Critchley, Water Resources Planning Manager, United Utilities speaking at
conference 'A Climate of Change' Manchester September 2006
54
Barber, A (2006) 'A real response to climate change' in Green Places, November 2006

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 13 -
use of grey water and making use of water in rising aquifers under cities
where present should be employed.55

Longer growing season

An earlier spring, later autumn and fewer frosts will lead to a longer growing
season. This, combined with higher temperatures and levels of carbon
dioxide which stimulates vegetation growth, will lead to a need for more
maintenance.56

Drier summers

Plants will become more susceptible to insects and disease. There will be an
increased risk of pests from continental Europe as the conditions in the UK
become more similar to those in Europe57.

Increased use of urban green spaces

Green spaces will be used more frequently and intensively as people spend
more time outside. Drier summers and an extended growing period will make
urban green spaces attractive for longer. People are likely to want to use
urban green spaces more in the evening and night time, especially in high
density areas58 which will have an impact on policing and maintenance.

More storm damage

Winter precipitation is expected to increase and be more intense. More

storms and wetter soils will lead to more storm damage in urban green
spaces. Greater soil erosion due to more intense rain will reduce the mineral
content of soil which will impact on biodiversity 59.

More land instability

There will be a greater need to manage land stability, for example

subsidence, heave, erosion and landslip. Wetter winters make heave more
likely, when moisture causes clay sub-soil to swell, causing foundations to
move upwards in extreme cases. Land stability depends on local soil type
and vegetation cover so varies strongly with location. Areas at risk from land
instability can be identified by the GeoSure dataset, produced by the British
Geological Survey. Although many soils contain clay minerals which swell
55
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
56
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE) Work
package 5 Urban Greenspace Literature Review
57
Bisgrove and Handley (2002) 'Gardening in the Global Greenhouse; the impacts of climate
change on gardens in the UK'
58
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'
59
Bisgrove and Handley (2002) 'Gardening in the Global Greenhouse; the impacts of climate
change on gardens in the UK'

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 14 -
when wet and shrink when dry, the most susceptible areas are in the South
East of the UK - the area where rainfall is expected to decrease in summer,
making subsidence and heave a greater threat. 60

When changes in soil moisture occur below the foundation level of buildings it
can lead to subsidence. Tree roots are often blamed for subsidence and
therefore removed. A clearer understanding of the mechanism of damage
and how it can be prevented is needed61, particularly if trees are to be sited
close to buildings in order to benefit from their shading and cooling functions.
Three London Boroughs, Barnet, Islington and Southwark, are piloting a Joint
Mitigation Tree Root Protocol which will clarify where trees are blamed for
subsidence so that they will not be removed unnecessarily. 62

Effect on maintenance costs

More intensive use of green spaces, a longer growing season and the need to
irrigate green spaces are all likely to lead to an increase in maintenance
costs. Poor air and soil quality combined with increased pests could affect the
vitality of trees and vegetation, again affecting the costs of maintenance.
Good quality research and guidance would help green space managers
understand the implications of climate change, clarify information that can at
times be contradictory and help them avoid costly mistakes.

Given budgetary constraints and the pressures of best value, local authorities
may be more likely to take the cost effective option rather than the option
which is the wisest in ecological terms. For example, maintenance of sport
pitches in parks might be prohibitively expensive during droughts. Work is
being done on alternative surfaces but these might be expensive and appear
poor value.63

WIDER IMPLICATIONS
Planning policies

The findings from the ASCCUE programme suggests that all urban green
space has an impact and that the shape, quality, size and soil type all matter.
Also patches of green space within towns and cities can be important for
rainwater infiltration and reducing run-off. 64 This may have implications for
Government planning policies which encourage development within existing
urban areas first and also higher housing densities.
60
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'
61
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'
62
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'
63
James, R (2006) 'A Climate of Change'
64
Gill. S, J. Handley, R Ennos, S. Pauleit (2007) Adapting cities for climate change: the role of
the green infrastructure'

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 15 -
Deprivation and environmental exclusion

Climate change may disproportionately cause further environmental and

health problems for the poorest, even though they contribute to problem least.
Environment Agency research shows that in terms of tidal floodplains, there is
a strong relationship with deprivation; eight times as many people in the most
deprived 10% of the population live in tidal floodplains than in the least
deprived 10%.65 Those on lower incomes might be less likely to be adequately
insured against flooding, especially where there is a high risk of flooding and
insurance premiums are high.

Research on urban heat islands66 proposes that deprivation may be a

determinant of heat-related risk in the elderly, due to differences in housing,
neighbourhood or the underlying prevalence of chronic disease. This could
be exacerbated by a greater prevalence of existing health problems such as
heart and respiratory disease to increase the likelihood of mortality in heat
waves. The Greater London Authority has commissioned research to look at
the physical and social factors that increase vulnerability to extreme heat. 67

Tree cover is less in more deprived areas. A study in Merseyside found that
vegetation, particularly tree cover, is lower in residential areas with higher
levels of socio-economic deprivation. 68 At the same time people living in
overcrowded poor quality housing have less green space to go to. 69 These
factors can make people living in these areas more vulnerable to climate
change.

Air pollution is often greater in more deprived areas. People living in the 10
per cent most deprived wards are typically exposed to nitrogen dioxide
concentrations 41 per cent higher than people living in wards of average
deprivation.70 Less affluent areas have more to gain from adding trees which
will help to absorb the pollutants but often have less space available for
them.71

65
Walker, G et al (2003) 'Environmental Quality and Social Deprivation'
66
London's Urban Heat Island, Greater London Authority, Oct 2006
67
LCCP (2006) Adapting to climate change; lessons for London
68
cited in Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE)
Work package 5 Urban Greenspace Literature Review
69
GLA (2006) London's Urban Heat Island
70
Brook Lyndhurst 'Environmental Exclusion'
71
LCCP (2006) Adapting to climate change; lessons for London

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 16 -
Urban depopulation

Increased heat in urban cities will increase people's desire to move out of
cities72 which could fuel an exodus to suburbs and more rural areas.
Improving the quality of urban green spaces could reduce this by improving
the attractiveness of urban areas.

Insurance costs increase

Flooding and subsidence are both risks which are often insured. Flooding in
the UK in autumn 2000 resulted in an estimated insured loss of £500 million 73,
with the estimated losses for the current floods even higher. Homes in areas
subject to a high flood risk might become uninsurable 74 or face high
premiums.

Community Engagement

It is important for local authorities to communicate with the public why they are
making changes relating to climate change. Grass in parks might become
expensive to maintain and usual species of vegetation might disappear.
However, this has to be balanced with the conclusions of public consultations
which often reveal that people do not want parks to change in any
fundamental way.75 On the other hand, necessary changes can be
opportunities to educate the public about the impacts of climate change and
what action they can take.

The wider the buy-in for adaptation methods within green spaces by various
sectional interests in the community, the greater the opportunities to ensure
greater community responsibility and lead in its management and upkeep. 76

Management

Urban green spaces encourage people and organisations to join up as they

are often the basis of projects which can meet different needs at the same
time.77 'Climate proofing' can also enhance an organisation's reputation. 78

A cultural change within local authorities might be needed to make

consideration of climate change a higher priority. Clear information is needed
on the likely impact of climate change on urban green spaces and how best to
adapt them so that they can both be protected from environmental changes
72
Barber, A (2006) 'A real response to climate change' in Green Places, November 2006
73
Austin et al (2000) United Kingdom Floods: 2000, cited in ASCCUE WP 5 Urban Green
Space Summary
74
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'
75
James, R (2006) 'A Climate of Change'
76
Correspondence with Cabe Space
77
Andrew Tucker, London Climate Change Partnership Manager, Greater London Authority,
speaking at conference 'A Climate of Change' Manchester September 2006
78
TCPA (2007) 'Climate change adaptation by design'

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 17 -
and help alleviate the impact of climate change. The role urban green spaces
can play in climate change adaptation and mitigation might even serve to
raise the profile of the green spaces agenda.

FURTHER SUGGESTIONS
The following ideas/actions have been suggested in the literature:

The importance of green space should be reflected in the planning process

e.g. Regional Spatial Strategies, Local Development Frameworks and
development control at the neighbourhood level 79

People understand the language of money so the reasons for making

improvements to urban green spaces should be demonstrated in terms of
money, long-term investments and revenue.80 Future savings and the cost of
doing nothing should also be considered.

Urban green spaces should be 'multi-functional'. 81 For example, they can be

places where people relax in summer but also act as flood defences in
periods of heavy rain.

Sites of Scientific Interest (SSI) should be used to conserve protected areas

and reduce sources of harm.82

Contact Details

Research:
Rachel Conner
Neighbourhoods, Cities and Regions Analysis Division
Analytical Services Division
Rachel.Conner@communities.gsi.gov.uk

Policy:
Louise Enticknap (or Katie Walters from 20th August 2007)
Parks and Urban Green Spaces
Community Renewal and Liveability Division
Katie.Walters@communities.gsi.gov.uk

August 2007

79
Gill S 'Greenspace to adapt cities to climate change'
80
Andrew Tucker, London Climate Change Partnership Manager, Greater London Authority,
speaking at conference 'A Climate of Change' Manchester September 2006
81
A Climate of Change conference
82
Clive Walmsely, Environmental Change Advisor, Countryside Council for Wales speaking at
conference 'A Climate of Change' Manchester September 2006

“Connecting People, Places and Knowledge”

- 18 -