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Tokyo Has .: As of January, Be Deployed at 16 Fire Units Around Japan's Major Cities
Tokyo Has .: As of January, Be Deployed at 16 Fire Units Around Japan's Major Cities
Tokyo Has .: As of January, Be Deployed at 16 Fire Units Around Japan's Major Cities
Text: The United States federal government should end joint intercontinental ballistic missile
defense development and deployment programs with Japan.
JAPAN ALREADY Has Tech The Counterplan Allows – The Plan Just Means They Have it
Independently – The Counterplan Means We Still Co-operate
Toki, 2k9
(Masako Toki, project manager in the Nonproliferation Education Program at the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, ‘9 January 16, Missile defense in Japan, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-
edition/features/missile-defense-japan)
As of January, Tokyo has …. be deployed at 16 fire units around Japan's major cities.
The Counterplan Makes sense – The plan removes lower and upper tier missile defense systems-
counterplan only removes upper tier
And this is the best evidence you will here on this subject so listen closely- Counterplan Solves the
case
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File Name - Tournament G’Hill 2K10
transfer and export, missile defense, transparency and globalization. "Space, Stability and Nuclear Strategy"
http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=470)
While the dual-use …. strategy against Russia and the West.
There is Zero Arms Race Impact to Regional Short and Medium Range missile defense Co-
operation
Rubinstein, 2k7
(Gregg A. Center for Pacific Asia Studies @ Stockholm University, September 5, US-Japan Missile defense
Cooperation: Current Status, Future Prospects,
www.japanconsidered.com/.../Rubinstein%20USJA%20BMD%20article%20090507.pdf)
Summary: So far developments … multilateral engagement in defense planning and operations.
This is Severance – The Plan Ends Quote “Ballistic Missile Defense Cooperation” – This Distinct
From the Counterplan Which Ends ICBM Missile Defense
Cronin, 2k2
(Richard P. Cronin, @ Congressional Research Service – Specialist in Asian Affairs, ‘2 Japan-U.S. Cooperation on
Theater Missile , fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/9186.pdf)
The United States ….-Based Midcourse Defense (SMD), as the most appropriate system for an “Asian” TMD.
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1NC Taiwan War F/L
Ross, 2k6
(Robert S. Ross is Professor of Political Science at Boston College and an Associate at the John King Fairbank Center
for East Asian Research at Harvard University. His most recent book is Normalization of U.S.-China Relations: An
International History, which he co-edited. "Taiwan's Fading Independence
Movement"http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61516/robert-s-ross/taiwans-fading-independence-movement)
Never popular at home, …. Washington to adjust their defense postures -- all without hurting Taiwan's security or threatening U.S. interests.
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Ext #1: Taiwan Won’t Declare Independence
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1NC Asian Proliferation F/L (Carrollton)
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Straits Times 08 (William Choong, Senior Writer, “What China fears: Sword behind the
Samurai”, July 11th 2008, pg lexisnexis//greenhill-sb)
For obvious reasons, the …. than Uncle Sam's sword behind the samurai.
Their authors misunderstand China—Missile Defense is the ONLY way to stop Chinese
adventurism
Kennedy 9
(Brian T, President of the Claremont Institute in California and a member of the Independent Working Group on
Missile Defense. “Japanese Missile Defense Matters”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574524620869945450.html//greenhill-chris)
Mr. Obama believes that ballistic …. a reality before it is too late.
Ext #2 China Modernization Inevitable (1/2)
China Modernization will inevitably cause prolifeartion- New US Space Weapons, desire to catch
up the US military and Taiwan all cause China to feel threatened- that’s Donaghue and
Fitzgerald- their evidence doesn’t speak to China’s motivations.
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Ext #3 Arms Control Fail
Other states won’t obtain weapons because they don’t provide security- this PROVES that states
will act in their own self interest which inevitably collapses arms control
Harvey 2k
(Frank, Director, Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, and Associate Professor, Department of Political Science,
Dalhousie University, “The international politics of national missile defence” International Journal, Vol. 55, No. 4
(Autumn, 2000), pp. 545-566//greenhill-chris)
The fate of the NPT (… one to none.
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1NC ASATS F/L (Carrollton)
China’s space capabilities don’t compare to the US—they couldn’t affect us even in a full blown
space war
Forden, 2k8
(Geoffrey Forden, PhD at MIT, former UN weapons inspector, 1-10-2008, “How China Loses,” Wired,
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/01/inside-the-chin.html#more)
But does China have enough …. use precision-guided munitions.
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1NC ASATS F/L (Carrollton)
c. China can’t pull off an ASAT attack – the US would still have plenty of space assets
Forden, 8
(Geoffrey Forden, PhD at MIT, former UN weapons inspector, 1-10-2008, “How China Loses,” Wired,
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/01/inside-the-chin.html#more)
The answers to these questions should …. no such thing.
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Ext #1: Space Debris High
And this problem will just get worse over time as collisions increase the amount of debris- there
are hundreds of thousands of pieces that the aff can’t solve for
Boston Globe, 2k9
("Collision shows rising hazard from space debris"
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/02/14/collision_shows_rising_hazard_from_space_debri
s/)
The military's radar … one another they spew out smaller fragments.
More Ev- We are the tipping point now- makes your impacts inevitable
Telegraph, 2k10
("Space so full of junk that a satellite collision could destroy communications on Earth"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7766894/Space-so-full-of-junk-that-a-satellite-collision-could-destroy-
communications-on-Earth.html)
The volume of abandoned rockets, … reliably shielded against this kind of destructive force."
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Ext #2: China Far Behind (1/2)
A) Lack of Tests
Lewis, 2k5
(James A. Lewis is a senior fellow at CSIS and directs its Technology and Public Policy Program. His research
involves innovation and economic change; Internet policy and cyber security; space programs; and intelligence
reform. Before joining CSIS, he was a member of the U.S. Foreign Service and Senior Executive Service, where he
worked on national security and technology-related issues. The policies he helped to develop include
counterinsurgency in Asia and Central America, military basing in Asia, conventional arms transfers, commercial
remote sensing, high-tech exports to China, and Internet security. Lewis led the U.S. delegation to the Wassenaar
Arrangement Experts Group for advanced civil and military technologies. He was also assigned to the U.S. Southern
Command the U.S. Central Command, and to the U.S. Central American Task Force."China as a Military Space
Competitor." Perspectives on Space Security. Ed. Audrey M. Schaffer. Washington, D.C.: Space Policy Institute,
December 2005.)
China has a long-standing capacity to track objects in space….. against targets in space.
B) No capability
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Ext #2: China Far Behind (2/2)
C) Strategically Isolated
Hagt, 2k6
(Eric Hagt is the Director of the China Program at the Center for Defense Information. He was a visiting researcher
at the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In addition, he has done
policy research for the Fund for Peace and has held a research assistantship at the Ivo Pilar Institute in Zagreb,
Croatia."Mutually Assured Vulnerabilities." China Security. Vol. 1, No. 2 (2006): 84-106. Page 91)
China’s relative strategic …. structure with the United States.
Lewis, 2k5
(James A. Lewis is a senior fellow at CSIS and directs its Technology and Public Policy Program. His research
involves innovation and economic change; Internet policy and cyber security; space programs; and intelligence
reform. Before joining CSIS, he was a member of the U.S. Foreign Service and Senior Executive Service, where he
worked on national security and technology-related issues. The policies he helped to develop include
counterinsurgency in Asia and Central America, military basing in Asia, conventional arms transfers, commercial
remote sensing, high-tech exports to China, and Internet security. Lewis led the U.S. delegation to the Wassenaar
Arrangement Experts Group for advanced civil and military technologies. He was also assigned to the U.S. Southern
Command the U.S. Central Command, and to the U.S. Central American Task Force."China as a Military Space
Competitor." Perspectives on Space Security. Ed. Audrey M. Schaffer. Washington, D.C.: Space Policy Institute,
December 2005.)
Secrecy and dissimulation complicates analysis of China’s space … about how to spend resources for space.
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Johnson-Freese, 2k6
(Dr. Joan Johnson-Freese assumed the position of Chair, Department of National Security Studies, at the Naval War
College in August 2002. Prior to that, she was: Chair of the Transnational Studies Department, a faculty member at
the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Director of the Center for Space Policy &
Law at the University of Central Florida. Her doctorate is in political science."A New US-Sino Space Relationship:
Moving Toward Cooperation." Astropolitics. Vol. 4, No. 2 (Summer 2006): 131-158. page 132)
China's near-term military … hardware development.
B) Budgetary Constraints Prevent Arms Race
Shixiu, 2k7
(Shixiu Bao was sworn in as Chief Expert of a State Program on October 2004.Mr. Bao began his career in systematic
military theories studies in 1959. Between 1959 and 1990, he held a variety of positions with the Academy of Military
Sciences, PLA China. At the Academy, Mr. Bao served as translator, research fellow, director of Institute and
postgraduate supervisor. Mr. Bao is a retired Senior Colonel. "Deterrence Revisited: Outer Space." China Security.
(Winter 2007): 2-11. page 10)
Despite the need for an effective …. other countries.
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Ext #3: No Space War
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Ext #4: ASATS ineffective
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C. Cooperation High
2. No Escalation
Lieber, Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, 2K6 (Keir, and Daryl G. Press, Consultant on
military analysis projects for the DOD for 13 years, associate professor of government at Dartmouth, Professor of
Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy”, Foreign Affiars, REQ)
To determine how much the nuclear ….increase over time.
Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2K9 (Walter,
“Only Makes You Stronger: Why the recession bolstered America”, 2/4, The New Republic, REQ)
Today, a much-diminished …. a casualty of the Panic of 2008.
3. Empirically Denied- we’ve been cooperating with Europe and Japan for the last 10 years
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Meanwhile, U.S. plans to build a …. the stage for nuclear confrontation even tenser.
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Ext #1: No War (1/2)
US and Russia are cooperating over Missile Defense Now- solves the impact
Charnysh, 2k10
(Volha Charnysh is currently the New Voices Nonproliferation Fellow at the Arms Control Association and will begin
a Ph.D. in government program at Harvard University in the fall. "Benefits of US-Russian Missile Defense
Cooperation" http://nukesofhazardblog.com/story/2010/6/29/132429/429)
Yesterday, U.S. ambassador … looks even more likely.
The plan doesn’t affect the deployment of US- European BMD- their Arbatov evidence is in the
context of EU BMD NOT Japanese BMD- proves the impact is inevitable
Shin, 2k9
(Jenny Shin, CDI Research Assistant "Obama's New Approach to Missile Defense in Europe"
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4552)
The recently announced …. countermeasures to overwhelm the defenses.
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1NC Solvency (Defense)
1. BMD is inevitable-
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Ext #1 BMD Inevitable: Asia
And your impacts are inevitable- the US is deploying BMD in multiple Asian Countries that make
China feel threatened
Rozoff, 2k10
(Rick Rozoff is an author and geopolitical analyst. "U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17948)
So far this year the United …. is conducting both simultaneously.
Rozoff, 2k10
(Rick Rozoff is an author and geopolitical analyst. "U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17948)
As it is doing so, the Pentagon …. nuclear first strikes.
And the plan just means Japan doesn’t pay its costs- the US will deploy BMD inevitably to protect
troops
Richard P. Cronin, @ Congressional Research Service – Specialist in Asian Affairs, ‘2 [Japan-U.S. Cooperation on
Theater Missile , fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/9186.pdf]
1) Burden-Sharing Issues. …. the United States, what kinds of compensation, if any, would the United States expect of Japan?
More Ev
Swaine et. al. 2k1
(Michael D. Swaine, PhD in IR @ Harvard - @ Carnegie Rachel M. Swanger, Dean @ RAND Graduate School,
Takashi Kawakami, Professor, Hokuriku University Ph.D., Osaka University, ‘1 Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1374/index.html)
Critics of Japanese …. defense contractors are particularly strong supporters of Japanese acquisition of the naval-based TMD systems.
And Cooperation with US is essential--- only independent Japanese deterrence is unpopular and
will set off an arms race
Hughes, 2k7
(Llewelyn, doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
International Security, Spring 07, “Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet); International and Domestic Constraints on
the Nuclearization of Japan”, pg lexisnexis//greenhill-sb)
Second, a decision ... 6, No. 4 (Spring 1982), pp. 26-43.
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And arm sales have ALREADY happened- Japan has the tech already and doesn’t need US
cooperation
CDI, 2k8
(Center for Defense Information "Missile Defense: A Wrong Turn for U.S.-India Cooperation?"
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4227)
However, introducing …. should trigger a renewed public discussion about the merits of missile defense in South Asia.
And India is buying Missile Defense tech NOW
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1NC Solvency (Offense)
Turn: Rearm - BMD Cooperation prevents Japanese Rearm
Chanlett-Avery and Nitkin 9
(Emma , Analyst in Asian Affairs in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade division of Congressional Research
Service.. A graduate of Amherst College and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University,
she joined CRS in 2003 through the Presidential Management fellowship. She has also held positions in the State
Department in the Office of Policy Planning and on the Korea desk, as well as at the Joint U.S. Military Advisory
Group in Bangkok, Thailand. Professional and academic fellowships include the Amherst-Doshisha Fellowship, the
Harold Rosenthal Fellowship in International Relations, the Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship in
advanced Japanese, the American Assembly Next Generation Fellowship, and a U.S. Speaker and Specialist Grant
from the U.S. Department of State, Mary Beth, specialist in non proliferation, “Japan’s Nuclear Future: Policy
Debate, Prospects and U.S. Interests”, http://italy.usembassy.gov/pdf/other/RL34487.pdf//greenhill-chris)
Perhaps the single …. security, although obstacles still remain for a seamless integration.32
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1NC Solvency (Offense)
Turn: Innovation- Missile Defense is the Key Integration Element – Will Ensure U.S.-Japanese
Defense Integration, Planning and Interoperability
Blumenthal 2k5
(Dan, Dan Blumenthal is a resident fellow at AEI, “The Revival of the U.S.-Japanese Alliance,” pg online @
http://www.aei.org/outlook/22027 //ghs-ef)
Plugging into …. intercepted is targeted at Japan, another U.S. ally, or at the U.S. homeland.
1NC Solvency (Offense)
And, Changing U.S.-Japanese Defense Coop to include a Cross-Flow of dual use High Technology
Solves U.S. Innovation, Manufacturing, Economy, and Protects IPR
Bloch 97
(Erich, National Research Council, Maximizing U.S. Interests in Science and Technology Relations with Japan,
Committee on Japan Framework Statement and Report of the Competitiveness Task Force, National Research
Council, //ghs-ef)
LONG-TERM U.S. INTERESTS AT STAKE …. key priorities, specific action items, and issues for possible future study.
Extinction from the lack of tech- key to expand Earth’s Carrying Capacity
Heaberlin 4
(Scott W, Nuclear Safety and Technology Applications Product Line @ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, “A
Case for Nuclear-Generated Electricity,” Battelle Press, 2004 *** we don’t endorse the gendered language if any in
this card)
Cohen looked at all the various population estimates and concluded that most fell into the range of 4 to 16 billion. Taking the highest value
when researchers offered a range, Cohen …. a happier place, a better place.
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2NC Rearm Impact Overview (1/2)
B) South Asia
BUSINESS WEEK, January 20, 2003, p. 22
But if Japan decides to build ….s future.
C) Allied Prolif
Chanlett-Avery and Nitkin 9
(Emma , Analyst in Asian Affairs in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade division of Congressional Research
Service.. A graduate of Amherst College and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University,
she joined CRS in 2003 through the Presidential Management fellowship. She has also held positions in the State
Department in the Office of Policy Planning and on the Korea desk, as well as at the Joint U.S. Military Advisory
Group in Bangkok, Thailand. Professional and academic fellowships include the Amherst-Doshisha Fellowship, the
Harold Rosenthal Fellowship in International Relations, the Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship in
advanced Japanese, the American Assembly Next Generation Fellowship, and a U.S. Speaker and Specialist Grant
from the U.S. Department of State, Mary Beth, specialist in non proliferation, “Japan’s Nuclear Future: Policy
Debate, Prospects and U.S. Interests”, http://italy.usembassy.gov/pdf/other/RL34487.pdf//greenhill-chris)
Japan’s development of … confidence in U.S. security guarantees more generally.
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2NC Rearm Impact Overview (2/2)
And The brink is now—de-emphasis of nuclear policy means we need to cooperate in other areas
or risk rearm
Schoff, 2k9
(James L., Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, “Realigning Priorities: The
U.S.-Japan Alliance & the Future of Extended Deterrence,” March, IFPA, Google)
The United States … security cooperation.
2NC Defense Cooperation Impact Overview (1/2)
Mutually assured destruction checks war impacts and the lack of resources makes war inevitable
Heinberg 4,
(Richard, Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute and faculty member at New College of California, “Book Excerpt:
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World” News Gateway accessed on December 15, 2004
http://www.energybulletin.net/2291.html)
Last One Standing – The ….and nuclear weapons.
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