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Psychological and Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19

Muhammad Ahmer Ali

Yahya Saqib Mughal

Muhammad Hassaan Yousaf

Raja Muaz Ali

Department of Mechanical Engineering, CEME NUST

HU 122 Technical Business Writing & Presentations Skills

Prof. Rukaiza Khan

April. 12, 2020

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to highlight the extent of physical and mental damage that has been caused by

the sudden outbreak of Coronavirus or COVID-19 across the globe. Since the beginning of human

civilization, people had to deal with many pandemics that came along their way, the most recent and

astonishing fact is that the year 1820 had an epidemic disease spread, year 1920 had the same and the year

2020 has also been affected by a pandemic.

Despite the fact that the disease is a pandemic, another important detail to take under consideration is that

it has no vaccine thus far, and daily people are being affected by it. It has reached a very serious stage to

an extent that people cannot go outside and run everyday errands, the work on earth; even in the busiest

places such as the Holy Ka’ba in Mecca, Times Square in New York and Wall Street has come to a halt.

The phrase “Earth is taking a break” has been viral on the social media sites.

In this review, the discussion will be based upon the effects of this so called “Earth’s Break” i.e., COVID-

19 effects on the economy, the stock market, the overall businesses and the daily revenue. That is not all

the mental health of people, the psychological effects of this pandemics on daily basis is also discussed, in

the light of the studies of various critics, specialists, psychologists, business and medical experts.
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Literature Review

The Impact of COVID-19 and Pandemics on Mental Health

Anxiety and Stress Disorders.

It’s easy to blame, it’s easy to politicize, it’s harder to tackle a problem together and find solutions

together.

Infectious pandemics and the spread of organisms across countries and continents have been facilitated by

global changes in earth’s climate and an increase in travel and international exchange. COVID-19, the

infection caused by the novel coronavirus detected in March 2020, is now affecting more than 166

countries, raising concerns of widespread panic and increasing anxiety in individuals subjected to the

(real or perceived) threat of the virus. Importantly, these concerns arise with all infections, including the

flu and other agents, and the same universal precautions are needed and indicated for safety and the

prevention of further transmission. However, media coverage has highlighted COVID-19 as a unique

threat, rather than one of many, which has added to panic, stress, and the potential for hysteria.

There have been many pandemics throughout history causing psychological stress to the endangered,

however in today’s age instant media reported added to the existing panic.

Pandemics are not just a medical phenomenon; they affect individuals and society on many levels,

causing disruptions. Stigma and xenophobia are two aspects of the societal impact of pandemic infectious

outbreaks. Panic and stress have also been linked to outbreaks. As concerns over the perceived threat

grow, people may start to collect (and hoard) masks and other medical supplies. This is often followed by

anxiety-related behaviors, sleep disturbances, and overall lower perceived state of health. Individuals with

mental illness may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of widespread panic and threat.
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Chronic disease, including chronic infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency

virus (HIV), are associated with higher levels of mental disorders as compared with the general

population. Studies show depression rates usually soar after infections (e.g., herpes exposure and anthrax

scares). Although the effects of the coronavirus on mental health have not been systematically studied, it

is anticipated that COVID-19 will have rippling effects, especially based on current public reactions.

Psychiatrists are uniquely situated to help both their patients and the greater community understand the

potential impact of the virus and help patients, families, and society deal with this latest threat.

Stigma, medical mistrust, and conspiracies.

Epidemics lead to stigmatization of affected individuals, authority figures, and health care professionals;

sadly, this trend has been seen in multiple countries and with multiple infectious agents. With COVID-19,

men and women of Asian descent, specifically Chinese, are the victims of social stigma and xenophobia,

with high levels of politicization and threats online and in personal interactions. As with most stigma-

laden interactions, the process unfolds because of limited information, hasty and unidimensional

assessments, and a defensive formulaic response. It is imperative that all health care professionals,

especially psychiatrists, act as the voice of reason and help disseminate proper, evidence-based

information.

Locally in Pakistan based on the current media trends and the general behavior of the public residing in

unaffected cities they have discrimination/stigmatization against those who have recently visited the

pandemic affected areas.

Medical stigmatization against the affected ‘race’ and other patients all over the globe particularly the

Chinese has been common where assaults and bad mouthing incidents are common. Similarly, in Pakistan

doctors refused treatment to suspected patients in Punjab, Pakistan.

“Medical mistrust” refers to a lack of trust in medical treatment and advances. It results in a lower use of

health care resources and poorer management of health conditions (coupled with potential misuse at times
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of crisis). Moreover, medical mistrust has been used to explain some racial and ethnic health care

disparities. It has been linked to a variety of diseases and conditions, including cancer, autism, and HIV.

During infectious pandemics medical mistrust has been linked to conspiracy theories. In one US study, up

to half of those surveyed endorsed belief in at least one health-related conspiracy theory. At its extreme,

medical mistrust can lead to movements such as anti-vaccination trends, which have been linked to

measles outbreaks.

Mistrust of medical organizations can reinforce stigma and perceived discrimination and result in lower

adherence to health recommendations. Clinicians must maintain a scientific, fact-based, and neutral

presentation of recommendations while emphasizing the importance of overall infection control practices

in the wake of COVID-19.

Anxiety and obsessive-compulsive disorders.

We anticipate the effects of infectious disease threats to manifest as sheer anxiety and panic: worry about

getting an infection, worry about loved ones getting ill, and worry when related symptoms—even

minor—are present. The absence of a definitive treatment for coronavirus easily exacerbates anxiety. In

most cases, these anxiety symptoms do not reach diagnostic thresholds for a DSM-5 diagnosis; however,

patients will benefit from reassurance and education.

Contamination obsessions—unwanted, intrusive worry that one is dirty and in need of washing, cleaning,

or sterilizing—are very common in patients with OCD. Perceptual experiences (e.g., feeling dirt on skin)

understandably would amplify obsessions. Sensory experiences (but not necessarily full tactile

hallucinations) have been found in up to 75 % of patients with OCD patients. More intense sensory

experiences (pseudo-hallucinations) are related to worsened control over compulsions and poorer insight.

Biased information processing is associated with a tendency to overestimate threat in individuals with

OCD.11 This may increase sensitivity to the panic associated with pandemic threats and further destabilize

patients and increase functional impairment.

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Cleaning and washing compulsions, also a core feature of OCD, can easily be exacerbated by the threat of

infectious pandemics. Complications of excessive cleaning include dry, chapped skin (which can lead to

super-imposed infections). and contact and atopic dermatitis; similarly, overuse of toxic cleaning supplies

can lead to inhalational injuries. Fear of acquiring a new, sensationalized disease may worsen negative

behaviors. Clinicians in psychiatry, psycho-dermatology, and primary care practices should be alert to

potential issues in patients with OCD.

Those who are at a risk to be affected show the most changed behavior. Common psychological traits are

unnecessary anxiety and an excessive obsession of cleaning/sterilizing himself/herself and the worse

affected are those suffering from a pre-existing psychological condition such as OCD.

Psychotic disorders: an extreme of medical mistrust?

Anecdotally, the most glaring (and maybe the most interesting) examples of medical mistrust conspiracy

theories concern patients who have psychotic disorders. Typically, repeated media exposure to an

alarming fact (in this case, spread of coronavirus), coupled with a distrust of organizations and

government as well as misattribution of physical symptoms can result in delusions. Similarly, fears can

quickly lead to clinical decompensation and must be carefully monitored.

Adding fuel to the fire are discussions of conspiracy theories related to infectious outbreaks such as HIV

and Ebola in the mainstream media. The lack of knowledge about epidemics, the increase of zoonotic

infections, and the complex effects of climate changes can affect patients as well as confuse even an

overall healthy person.

At the intersection of psychosis and obsessiveness is delusional parasitosis, also referred to as

monosymptomatic hypochondrial psychosis, Ekbom syndrome, and delusional infestation. Essentially,

the patient believes that he is infected with an organism that evades detection and treatment and, thus,

causes continuous suffering. This syndrome was described as early as 1636 by sir Thomas Browne, who
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referred to it as Morgellons disease. A concerning clinical feature of delusional infestation is its

occurrence in multiple family members (e.g., folio a deux).

Delusional infestation development in the context of pandemics has not been studied. Conceivably,

increased cases may develop as more individuals focus on far-fetched, unlikely infections because of easy

access to unverified information on the internet. To address delusional parasitosis, clinicians should rule

out organic causes and reassure the patient that there is no infection or infestation.

The economic effects of COVID-19 around the world

As the world grapples with the coronavirus, the economic impact is mounting - with the OECD warning

the virus presents the biggest danger to the global economy since the 2008 financial crisis.

UNCTAD, the UN trade agency, warned of a slowdown of global growth to under 2% this year,

effectively wiping $1 trillion off the value of the world economy.

A poll of economists by the London School of Economics found 51% believed the world faces a major

recession, even if COVID-19 kills no more people than seasonal flu. Only 5% said they did not think it

would.

There are now some 170,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally, the new coronavirus that emerged

in Wuhan, China, in December and is spreading around the world.

Businesses are dealing with lost revenue and disrupted supply chains due to China’s factory shutdowns.

Weeks after China imposed travel restrictions on millions of its people, Italy placed quarantine measures

on its entire population, with France and Spain imposing similar measures and many other European

countries restricting movement and business activity. On 11 March, some key industries in Wuhan were

told they can resume, a day after Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the city for the first time since the

outbreak began.
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Here are a few ways the outbreak is sending ripples around the world.

Predicted slump

China is the world’s second-largest economy and leading trading nation, so economic fallout from

COVID-19 also threatens global growth.

Economists polled by Reuters on March 3-5 said the outbreak likely halved China’s economic growth in

the current quarter compared with the previous three months.

The poll of more than 40 economists, based both in and outside mainland China, forecast growth to fall to

a median of 3.5% this quarter from 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, a full percentage point lower than

predicted in a Feb. 14 poll.

“If you’re in a city which has been basically closed down or put (under) virtual house arrest, you’re not

going to go out to the streets, you can’t go to the cinema, the restaurants...with all those sorts of things,

economic activity will be substantially negatively affected,” said Rob Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific

research at ING.

The Chinese economy is likely to be hit further by reduced global demand for its products because of the

outbreak on economies around the world.

Data released on 16 March showed China's factory production plunged at the sharpest pace in three

decades in the first two months of the year - something which could mean an even greater economic

slowdown than predicted in that poll.

"Judging by the data, the shock to China's economic activity from the coronavirus epidemic is greater

than the (2008) global financial crisis," said Zhang Yi, chief economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital

Management.
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"These data suggest a small contraction in the first-quarter economy is a high probability event.

Government policies would need to be focused on preventing large-scale bankruptcies and

unemployment."

Falling oil, stock prices; central bank action fails to calm markets

To combat the economic fallout, the US Federal Reserve on 15 March cut its key interest rate to near

zero.

But the move, coordinated with central banks in Japan, Australia and New Zealand in a joint-effort not

seen since the 2008 financial crisis, failed to shore up global investor sentiment, with oil prices dipping

below $30 a barrel on 16 March, and a 9% slump in share values when Wall Street opened.

China is the world’s biggest oil importer. With coronavirus hitting manufacturing and travel, the

International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted the first drop in global oil demand in a decade.

"Covid-19 (coronavirus) has spread beyond China and our 2020 base case global oil demand forecast is

cut by 1.1 mb/d. For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d," the

IEA said in its monthly report for March 2020.

On 9 March, oil prices lost as much as a third of their value - the biggest daily rout since the 1991 Gulf

War, as Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled, they would hike output in a market already awash with crude,

after their three-year supply pact collapsed.

“A WHO declaration of global emergency and U.S.-EU traffic ban is dampening the global energy

demand outlook, in conjunction with an intensified price war between Saudi and Russia,” Margaret Yang,

market analyst at CMC Markets in Singapore, told Reuters.

“Bears are dominating the oil market and there might be more downside before a bottom can be reached.”
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Anyone hoping cryptocurrencies might prove a safe haven was disappointed. Bitcoin lost more than 30%

of its value in the five days to 12 March, Reuters reported, outpacing losses for stocks and oil.

“We’ve seen de-risking across all asset markets,” said Jamie Farquhar, portfolio manager at London-

based crypto firm NKB. “Bitcoin is certainly not immune to that."

Some Latest Economic Headlines:

• China's factory output posts sharpest plunge in three decades in Jan-Feb.

• Unprecedented Federal Reserve move fails to calm markets.

• US share trading halted; market falls 9% on Monday.

• Spain, France follow Italy in imposing severe restrictions on movement.

• UNCTAD warns of a $1 trillion cost to the world economy.

• Cryptocurrencies plunge.

• Italy's entire population under quarantine measures.

• Some key industries in Wuhan are told they can resume work.

Some worldwide events that have been cancelled or postponed that initially had tremendous

amount of investment are:

• 2020 Pakistan Super League (suspended indefinitely)

• 2020 EME Olympiad (postponed)

• 2020 Women's Ice Hockey World Championships (cancelled)

• 2020 Arctic Winter Games (cancelled)

• Formula One Australian Grand Prix 2020 (cancelled) with the Bahrain, Chinese and Vietnam

Grands Prix postponed.

• UEFA Euro 2020 The 2020 edition postponed to 2021.

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• 2021 Copa América the 2020 edition postponed to 2021

• 2019–20 UEFA Champions League (suspended)

• 2019–20 UEFA Europa League (suspended)

• All NCAA collegiate athletic competitions for the remainder of the 2019–2020 academic year

including the 2020 College World Series and the 2020 Men's and Women's Division I basketball

tournaments (all cancelled)

• 2019–20 NBA season (suspended)

• 2019-20 NHL season (suspended)

• 2020 Major League Baseball season (suspended)

• 2019–20 Premier League (suspended, including lower divisions)

• 2019–20 Bundesliga (suspended, including lower divisions)

• 2019–20 Serie A (suspended, including lower divisions)

• 2019–20 Ligue 1 (suspended indefinitely)

• 2019–20 La Liga (suspended, including lower divisions)

• 2019–20 DEL season (cancelled)

• 2020 XFL season (cancelled)

• WrestleMania 36 was moved from Raymond James Stadium to take place behind closed doors at

the WWE Performance Center.

• The 2020 edition of the Grand National has now been cancelled.

Additionally, there is also an economic side of the pandemic as we saw that all social activities

around the globe in the worst struck areas were reduced, which led to a global recession which even

the likes of USA and China couldn’t escape and all investments have been withheld resulting in

crashing stock market.

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Results

The current COVID-19 outbreak is spurring fear on a societal level. On an individual level, it may

differentially exacerbate anxiety and psychosis-like symptoms as well as lead to non-specific mental

issues (e.g., mood problems, sleep issues, phobia-like behaviors, panic-like symptoms). We urge our

colleagues to spread sound infection control practices and help their communities maintain civil,

courteous, and rational communication. A low index of suspicion of mental distress can help in early

detection and treatment and spare patients much suffering.

The 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic has had far-reaching consequences beyond the spread of the disease

and efforts to quarantine it. There have been widespread reports of supply shortages of pharmaceuticals

and manufactured goods due to factory disruption in China, with many areas seeing panic buying and

consequent shortages of food and other essential grocery items. The technology industry has been

warning about delays to shipments of electronic goods

Economic turmoil associated with the coronavirus pandemic has wide-ranging and severe impacts upon

financial markets, including stock, bond, and commodity (including crude oil and gold) markets. Major

events included the Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war that resulted in a collapse of crude oil prices and a

stock market crash in March 2020.

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