Opening Bell

March 18, 2021

Market Outlook Today’s Highlights

Indian markets are likely to see a gap up opening tracking Events: EU trade balance, US initial jobless
strong global cues amid upbeat guidance from the Federal claims
Reserve. However, global news flows and sector specific
development will be key monitorables.

Index Movement
Markets Yesterday 55000 16000
 Domestic markets ended lower on the back of losses across 52000 15000
sectors amid mixed global cues 49000 14000
46000 13000
 US markets ended higher post the Federal Reserve keeping
43000 12000
interest rates unchanged and raising GDP growth
40000 11000
projections

18-Feb

21-Feb

24-Feb

27-Feb

2-Mar

5-Mar

8-Mar

11-Mar

14-Mar

17-Mar
Key Developments BSE (LHS) NSE (RHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yrfwd)

 Direct tax collection for the fiscal year were at | 9.18 lakh Sensex 49,802 50,364 -1.1 1.4 4.3 29.2
crore as of March-16, about | 18,000 crore higher than the Nifty 14,721 14,910 -1.3 1.3 5.3 27.9
revised estimates. This surge in tax mop-up was led by a
rise in advance tax collection from companies. Overall, Institutional Activity
corporation tax collection jumped nearly 7% to | 4.7 lakh CY19 CY20 YTD CY21 Yesterday Last 5 Days
crore. This is higher than the revised estimate of | 4.46 FII (| cr) 40,893 64,379 56,791 2,626 2,435
lakh crore. On the other hand, income-tax collection of DII (| cr) 44,478 -28,544 -31,427 -562 -384
| 4.21 lakh crore is still short of the revised estimates of
| 4.59 lakh crore World Indices – Monthly performance
France Germany Dow Jones U.K. Nikkei
 NHAI is ramping up the pipeline of projects to be awarded 6,055 14,597 33,015 6,763 29,914

in Q1FY22, after awarding activity is expected to reach 5.7% 5.1% 4.8% 2.2% -1.2%

~4,500 km of highways in FY21. The authority is likely to Kospi Nasdaq NSE BSE Shanghai
3,048 13,525 14,721 49,802 3,446
bid out projects worth ~ | 50,000 crore in Q1FY22. So far,
-2.8% -3.2% -3.2% -3.7% -5.7%
in FY21, the authority has awarded highways totalling
2,350 km in length and worth | 1.3 lakh crore

Nifty Heat Map

211 1,387 2,516 3,113 3,378
ITC Infosys HDFC Ltd TCS Divis Lab
1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
2,647 3,468 1,020 837 2,226
Eicher Britannia TechM M&M HUL
-0.5% -0.6% -0.6% -0.7% -0.8%
423 590 Bajaj 9,525 1,495 7,065
JSW Steel ICICI Bank HDFC Bank Maruti
-0.8% -0.9% Finserv -0.9% -1.1% -1.2%
Markets Today (Updated till yesterday)
Bharti 523 1,367 728 1,438 16,456
Grasim Ind Axis Bank L&T Nestle
Airtel Commodities Close Previous Chng (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
-1.2% -1.3% -1.3% -1.7% -1.7%
Gold (|/10 gm) 44,967 44,813 0.3 -1.7 -10.3
Bajaj 5,360 609 220 6,520 1,868 Silver (|/kg) 67,230 66,919 0.5 0.0 -1.3
UPL Power Grid Ultratech Kotak Bank
Finance -1.8% -1.8% -1.8% -1.8% -1.8% Crude ($/barrel) 67.7 68.4 -1.0 2.4 30.8
Asian 2,423 690 1,473 987 3,191 Copper ($/tonne) 8,965 9,164 -2.2 -1.9 15.7
HDFC Life Titan HCl Tech Hero Moto
Paints -1.8% -1.9% -1.9% -2.0% -2.0% Currency
USD/INR 72.5 72.5 0.0 1.3 0.7
4,356 Shree 26,842 Reliance 2,055 98 326
Dr Reddy IOC Hindalco EUR/USD 1.2 1.2 0.1 -1.4 -2.5
-2.1% Cement -2.1% Ind. -2.2% -2.2% -2.2% USD/YEN 109.1 109.1 -0.1 -2.3 -5.3
420 3,570 Indusind 1,009 772 704 ADRs
Wipro Bajaj Auto Cipla Tata Steel
-2.2% -2.3% Bank -2.5% -2.5% -2.7% HDFC Bank 82.3 80.8 1.9 4.0 13.9
ICICI Bank 16.7 16.7 0.2 0.6 12.4
107 889 368 Sun 585 138
NTPC SBI Life SBI GAIL Tata Motors 21.8 21.9 -0.4 -0.8 73.1
-2.7% -2.7% -2.7% Pharma -2.9% -3.4%
Infosys 19.3 19.2 0.9 12.9 14.0
140 688 Tata 306 432 109 Dr Reddys Labs 61.7 60.2 2.4 2.8 -13.5
Coal India Adani Ports BPCL ONGC
-4.0% -4.1% Motors -4.4% -4.8% -5.0% Wipro 6.6 6.6 1.2 8.3 17.5
 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Key Economic Indicator Period Latest Prior Values

70,782

67,257

60,004

59,472
58,997
100000

54,392
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 3.00% 3.00%
RBI Repo Rate N/A 4.00% 4.00%
50000

9,783

8,460
RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 3.35% 3.35%

4,974

4,824
3,910

3,700
CPI YY Feb 5.03% 4.06%
Current Account Balance Q2 15.5bln $ 19.8bln $ 0
9-Mar 10-Mar 12-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar

Opening Bell
Exports - USD Feb 27.9 bln$ 27.4 bln$
BSE Cash NSE Cash
FX Reserves, USD Final Feb 585 bln$ 590 bln$
GDP Quarterly yy Q3 0.40% -7.50%
GDP Annual FY20 4.20% 6.10% NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)
Imports - USD Feb 40.5 bln $ 42 bln $ 8000000

46,87,496

72,55,789

42,45,096
34,56,033
Industrial Output yy Jan -1.60% 1.00%

32,62,881
27,89,169
6000000
Manufacturing Output Jan -2.00% 1.60%
Trade Deficit Govt - USD Feb -12.6bln $ -15.7bln $ 4000000
WPI Food yy Feb 3.31% -0.26% 2000000
WPI Fuel yy Feb 0.58% -4.78%
WPI Inflation yy Feb 4.17% 2.03% 0
9-Mar 10-Mar 12-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar
WPI Manuf Inflation yy Feb 5.81% 5.13%
NSE Derivative

Corporate Action Tracker Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%)

Security name Action Ex Date Record Date Status Price (|)
Metals 5.8

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

The Anup Enginnering Buyback Ongoing IT 4.9
BSE Small Cap 4.2
Jagran Prakashan Buyback Ongoing Power 4.1
Arvind Fashions Rights Issue Ongoing 135.00 Oil & Gas 1.6
Consumer Durables 1.0
Astral Poly Technik Bonus Issue 18-Mar-21 19-Mar-21 01:03 PSU 0.1
Coal India Dividend 15-Mar-21 16-Mar-21 5.00 FMCG -0.6
BSE Midcap -1.0
Engineers India Dividend 18-Mar-21 19-Mar-21 1.40 Capital Goods -3.6
IIFL Securities Dividend 18-Mar-21 19-Mar-21 1.00 Real Estate -5.1
Healthcare -5.2
Ambuja Cements Dividend 19-Mar-21 22-Mar-21 1.00 Auto -7.3
Banks -7.4
-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
(%)

Key News for Today

Company/I News View Impact
ndustry
Telecom As per Trai monthly subscriber data, Airtel The subscriber addition momentum
sector added 5.9 million (mn) customers in January, continues to be robust for Airtel with
2021, while Jio added 1.95 mn. Vodafone continued leadership among peers for the
Idea (VIL) added 1.7 mn subscribers. In terms last six months. VIL has finally started net
of active subscriber, Airtel added 6.9 mn
customers in January, while Jio lost 3.4 mn
subscribers and VIL lost 0.3 mn active
addition (after 15 months), led by
completion of integration process, which
is positive

subscribers. Even in terms of data
subscribers, Airtel led with 5.5 mn addition,
Jio added 1.95 mn, while VIL added 1.9 mn
subscribers

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

Bhel Bhel has emerged as lowest bidder for tender
worth ~| 10800 crore for fleet mode tender
floated by Nuclear Power Corporation of India
for the 6x700 MW Turbine Island Package
Projects
Indian As per media sources, Delhivery is in talks
express with multiple global investors, including
Bhel has won orders worth ~| 9100 crore
for 9MFY21. Further, this large nuclear
order would aid Bhel's order intake for
FY21E despite the challenging
environment in the power sector.
Significantly, with this, Bhel has retained
its market leadership position of being the
sole Indian supplier of nuclear steam
turbines. However, recent execution

headwinds in the power segment due to
various issues leading to project delays
and working capital stress are major near
term challenges and need to be resolved
quickly to recover reduced revenue amid
pandemic
An expected completion of the deal with
above valuation (50% jump in three

logistics Fidelity, for funding before its initial public
sector, offer (IPO) that would value the startup at
BlueDart around $3 billion. It was valued at ~$2 billion
at its earlier round of funding in December,
2020
Container As per The Economic Times, to tide over the
freight crisis of falling business volume and plunging
stations margins, down over 50% from the pre-DPD
days, CFS association has requested to allow
CFS to utilise their excess capacity by
handling non-exim cargo, especially domestic
cargo bound for coastal shipping, in the new
logistics policy

months), would also provide a boost in
valuation multiple for the entire express
logistics sector (especially profitable
competitors like BlueDart)
With 34 CFSEes, JNPT, set up as a CFS
port, is the largest CFSes facility in the
country, followed by Chennai with around
30, Mundra (14) and Kochi, Pipavav and
Hazira having two each, among others.
According to the association, the ~160
CFSes across the ports have been
operating at around 40% capacity on one
hand, and on wafer-thin margins on the
other, as most containers are directly
delivered to consignees

Intellect Intellect Design Arena (Intellect) hosted an We believe the company is poised to
Design analyst meet to highlight it's key product benefit from healthy traction in its
Arena features and its cloud & API ready products. products. However, recent run up in stock
The company also highlighted that its retail price factors in most of the positives
banking product (~30% of revenues) is
expected to do well and its overall market is
expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% till
FY25E. In addition, it's insurance product
(20% of topline) is expected to witness
healthy traction

Key developments (Continued…)

 The Ministry for Corporate Affairs has hinted that the suspension of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC)
is likely to be revoked after March 24, 2021, as per Business Line
 RBI’s list of systemically important banks may widen, given the changes in the pecking order after the merger
of state-run players. As on date, only State Bank of India (SBI), HDFC Bank and one large private bank figure in
the central bank’s classification of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), but this list could get
reworked, as reported in Business Standard
 As per Business Line, Indian ports handled ~16.1 million TeUs of container at all ports in 2019, of which 12
million TeUs (75% of total) were gateway and 4 million TeU (25%) was transshipment. Colombo port handled
2.5 million TeU of transshipment while Singapore and Port Klang handled 0.9 million

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

 Banks have written to the Reserve Bank of India seeking an extension of the March 31 deadline for repayment
of interest accrued on working capital loans during the moratorium. With two weeks remaining for the
deadline, around | 15,000-20,000 crore of working capital interest in the banking system remains unpaid by the
borrowers. Banks have sought extension on the deadline beyond March 2021 as reported in Financial Express
 According to The Economic Times, a proposed US immigration bill if enacted would lead to 35% annual
increase in green cards. The number of persons obtaining lawful permanent residency would rise by 3,75,000
each year to about 1.5 million in total
 As per Business Line, Gati has started air freight solutions for pharma, electronics and auto ancillaries sectors
and plans to spend about | 100 crore on infrastructure and technology development in this area in FY22
 IOC has formed a JV with Phinergy, IOC Phinergy Pvt Ltd to manufacture ultra-lightweight metal-air batteries
for electric vehicles
 Somany Ceramics has planned to a) modernise/expand the production line of double fast firing to produce
large format wall tile at the Kassar Plant. Post modernisation, the capacity will increase to ~16000 square metre
per day from current ~7000 square metre per day of wall tile. The total investment required is | 45 crore.
Additionally, the company has decided to make investment in a) Sudha Somany Ceramics (a subsidiary of the
Company): maximum cap of | 42 crore towards the capacity expansion of 3.6 mn sq ft per annum of glaze
vitrified tiles, b) Somany Piastrelle (a wholly owned subsidiary), maximum cap of | 90 crore towards setting up
a greenfield project of 3.48 mn sq ft per annum of glazed vitrified tiles at Gujarat. The company has also
declared Interim dividend of | 2.40 per equity share for FY21
 Dixon Technologies had announced for split the face value of its shares from | 10 to | 2 on February 2021. The
share will be quoting on an ex-split basis from March 18, 2021
 Astral Poly shares will turn ex-bonus today. The company announced one bonus share for every four shares on
February 2021
 Icra has upgraded the rating for Indian Metal and Ferro Alloys of long term loans from banks to A from A- with
stable outlook and short-term loans from banks to A1 from A2+

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research
Nifty Weekly Chart Technical Outlook
Equity benchmarks edged lower on Wednesday
amid subdued global cues ahead of ahead of US
Fed policy. Nifty settled the session at 14721,
down 189 points or 1.3%. In the coming session,
volatility would remain high owing to volatile global
cues and weekly derivative expiry. We expect the
index to maintain positive bias after a gap up
opening. Hence, after a positive opening use
intraday dips towards 14810-14835 to create long
position for target of 14924.
Going ahead, 14700 will be the key levels to watch,
as holding above 14700 on a closing basis would
keep pullback option open towards psychological
mark of 15000 levels. Failure to do so will lead to
extended breather. Bank Nifty is also placed
around the key support area of 34000. As it
commands 40% weight in Nifty, hence holding
above the key support area of 34000 on a closing
basis will lead to a meaningful pullback in bank
index which would lead nifty higher.

Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks Trend Close S1 S2 R1 R2 Nifty 50 Intraday Short Term
SENSEX Negative 49801.6 49493 49185 50335 50869 Trend Up Range Bound
Nifty 50 Negative 14721.3 14625 14531 14886 15052 Support 14770-14700 14700
ACC Ltd Negative 1727.7 1707 1687 1762 1797 Resistance 14890-14940 15000
20 day EMA 0 14929.0
Axis Bank Ltd Negative 727.9 722 715 739 749
200 day EMA 0 12972.0
HDFC BANK LTD Negative 1495.4 1477 1459 1526 1557
SBI Negative 368.2 362 357 376 385
HERO MOTOCORP LT Negative 3190.6 3151 3111 3255 3319 Advances/Declines
MOTHERSON SUMI Positive 220.6 218 215 225 229 Advances Declines Unchanged
Tata Motors Negative 305.8 300 294 316 326 BSE 795 2188 142
M&M FIN SERVICES Negative 203.5 200 197 210 215 NSE 385 1579 56
BAJAJ AUTO LTD Negative 3569.6 3524 3479 3646 3723
TCS Positive 3113.0 3081 3048 3151 3188 Daily Technical Calls
INDIAN OIL CORP Negative 98.2 97 96 100 102 Daily Technical Calls
CIPLA LTD Negative 772.2 763 754 788 804 1. Buy TCS in the range of 3126.00-3132.00
PIDILITE INDS Positive 1723.6 1710 1698 1739 1756
2. Sell Amara Raja in the range of 879.00-882.00
Reliance Industries Negative 2055.4 2025 1996 2093 2132
BHARTI AIRTEL Negative 522.9 517 512 529 536 All recommendations of March Future
DR REDDY'S LABS Negative 4355.9 4311 4267 4432 4509 See Momentum Pick for more details

Nifty Call – Put Strike (Number of shares in lakh) – March, 2021 Intraday Derivative Strategy
i) Page Industries
14300 18 0 Buy PAGEIND MAR Fut at ₹28750.00-28800.00
14400 12 1 CMP: 28710.70
14500 37 7 Target 1: 29075 Target 2: 29525
14600 8 2 Stop Loss: 28475
14700 15 6
14800 6 12 ii) Manapurram Finance
14900 8 11 Sell MANAFI MAR Fut at ₹159.30-159.60
15000 22 33 CMP: 159.95
15100 5 16 Target 1:158 Target 2: 155.7
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Stop Loss: 161

Put Call
See Derivatives view for more details

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See Daily Derivatives for more details
 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

Results/Events Calendar

01 March 02 March 03 March 04 March 05 March 06 March

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
IN Nikkei Markit Manuf. PMI EU CPI (YoY) EU Services PMI EU Retail Sales US Exports CH Imports
IN Bank Loan Growth JP Services PMI EU PPI YoY EU Unemployment Rate IN FX Reserves USD CH Exports YoY
IN Deposit Growth IN Exports US Services PMI US Initial Jobless Claims US Trade Balance CH Trade Balance
JP Unemployment Rate IN Imports US Crude Oil Inventories 0 US Unemployment Rate CH FX Reserves
US Manufacturing PMI IN Trade Balance 0 0 US Federal Budget 0

08 March 09 March 10 March 11 March 12 March 13 March

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
JP GDP QoQ EU GDP QoQ US CPI YoY EU Deposit Facility Rate IN CPI YoY, US PPI MoM 0
CH Trade Balance CH CPI YoY US Federal Budget Balance EU Interest Rate Decision IN Industrial Production YoY 0
0 CH PPI YoY US Crude Oil Inventories 0 IN Manufacturing Output MoM 0
0 0 JP PPI YoY 0 IN FX Reserves USD,CH FDI 0
0 0 0 0 IN Bank loan growth 0

15 March 16 March 17 March 18 March 19 March 20 March

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
IN WPI Inflation US Retail Sales EU CPI YoY EU Trade Balance IN FX Reserves (USD) 0
IN WPI Manuf. Inflation US Capacity Utilisation EU Construction Output US Initial Jobless Claims 0 0
IN Imports US Industrial Prod YoY US Crude Oil Inventories EU Trade Balance 0 0
IN Exports JP Exports,JP Imports 0 0 0 0
IN Trade Balance JP Trade Balance 0 0 0 0

22 March 23 March 24 March 25 March 26 March 27 March

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
US Existing Home Sales UK Unemployement Rate EU Manufacturing PMI US GDP QoQ US Goods Trade Balance 0
0 JP Manufacturing PMI EU Services PMI 0 US Personal Spending 0
0 US New Home Sales EU Consumer Confidence 0 US Personal Income 0
0 UK Unemployment Rate US Manufacturing PMI 0 CH Industrial Profit 0
0 US Current Account US Services PMI 0 0 0

29 March 30 March 31 March 01 April 02 April 03 April

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
JP Unemployment Rate EU Consumer Confidence EU CPI YoY EU Manufacturing PMI US Unemployment Rate 0
JP Retail Sales US CB Consumer Confidence IN Federal Fiscal Deficit US Manufacturing PMI 0 0
0 CH Manufacturing PMI IN Infrastructure Output(YoY)0 0 0
0 CH Non-Manufacturing PMI IN Foreign Debt 0 0 0
0 0 JP Manufacturing PMI 0 0 0

Major Economic Events this Week Bulk Deals

Date Event Country Period Actual Expected No. of Price
Company Client Name Type
15-Mar WPI Inflation IN Mar 4.2% 3.2% shares (|)
BSE*
15-Mar WPI Manufacturing Inflation IN Mar 5.8% -
Hinduja Global AASIA Management &
15-Mar Imports IN Feb 40.54B - Buy 10,40,000 1210.0
Solutions Limited Consultancy P Ltd.
15-Mar Exports IN Feb 27.93B - NSE*
15-Mar Trade Balance IN Feb -12.62B -12.90B Infibeam Avenues L7 HITECH PRIVATE
Buy 74,43,723 102.2
16-Mar Retail Sales US Feb -3.0% -0.5% Limited LIMITED
16-Mar Capacity Utilisation Rate US Feb 73.8% 75.5%
16-Mar Industrial Production YoY US Feb -4.3% -
16-Mar Exports JP Mar -4.5% -0.8%
16-Mar Imports JP Mar 11.8% 11.9%
16-Mar Trade Balance JP Mar 217.4B 420.4B
17-Mar Crude Oil Inventories US Feb 2.396M 2.964M
17-Mar Construction Output EU Feb 0.8% -
17-Mar CPI YoY EU Feb 0.9% 0.9% Recent Releases
17-Mar Fed Interest Rate Decision US Mar 0.3% 0.3% Date Report
Date Event Country Period Expected Previous March 17,2021 Company Update-SAIL
18-Mar Trade Balance EU Mar 25.3B 29.2B
March 17,2021 Company Update-Indian Brokerage Industry
18-Mar Initial Jobless Claims US Mar 705K 712K
March 16,2021 Idirect Instinct-Indian Energy Exchange
18-Mar FX Reserves IN Mar - 584.55B
March 15,2021 Company Update-Action Construction
March 12,2021 Company Update-Blue Dart Express

ICICI Securities |Retail Research

 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

SSSSSSV,

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

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 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research

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