Republic of the Philippines

Cagayan State University

Carig Campus
CSU Vision COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING

Transforming
lives by
Educating for
the BEST.
LABORATORY EXPERIMENT 1.4:
Exponential and Logistic Population Models
CSU Mission

CSU is committed
to transform the
In partial fulfilment for the requirements of the course
lives of people and
communities Differential Calculus
through high (Math 211E)
quality instruction
and innovative
research, By: GROUP 5
development,
18-04017 BAYLON, CARMINA PEREZ
production and
extension. 18-04163 GUMABAY, MICHELLE P.
18-04508 LIQUIGAN, MARK JOSEPH
CSU – IGA 18-04014 RIVERA, BLESSA JUDIMIN T.
Competence
Social Responsibility

Unifying Presence
Program: BS Chemical Engineering
Year Level: Second Year
COE – IGA Date Submitted: November 27, 2019
Innovative Thinking
Synthesis
Personal
Instructor: Engr. Caesar P. Llapitan
Responsibility
Empathy
Research Skill
Rating:______________
Entrepreneurial Skill
Date Checked: _________
 LABORATORY EXPERIMENT 1.4:
Exponential and Logistic Population Models

Abstract
The model of the US population over the last 210 years has been
represented using the exponential and logistic growth model. In this laboratory
project, exponential and logistic population growth of Massachusetts has been
computed using exponential and logistic growth model. Exponential model
showed a predicted 2010 population of 7261 and a more accurate value of 6701
while logistic model indicated a predicted 2010 population of 6577. By using
numerical and graphical interpretations to compare the predicted populations
of the models, it can be said that the logistic model is better to use in analyzing
the given population.

49
I. Introduction
The idea that a population of any species, not just humans, will grow
exponentially, provided unlimited resources, has been at the core of ecology
and is an ecological principle covered in both ecology (Michael L. Cain, 2008)
and introductory biology texts (Audesirk, 2011). This concept was also the basis
for Charles Darwin’s “struggle for life” and influenced his theory of evolution by
means of natural selection (Darwin, 1997)
Since then it has been used extensively as a model to project future
population sizes of both invasive and endangered species. In fact, exponential
growth has been called the first law of ecology (Turchin, 2013) and much time
is spent on this topic in ecology courses. Even introductory biology courses will
often devote an entire chapter to the concept. The logistic growth equation
provides a natural extension to the concept of exponential growth and is
prevalent in both ecology and basic biology text books (Audesirk et al. 2010,
Cain et al. 2008). In summary, exponential and logistic growth are two of the
more fundamental concepts a student will learn in an ecology course.
In biology, population size changes over time. By simply counting the
number of individuals in a population over time, one can learn a great deal. If
samples of a population are taken over a long time, one can determine whether
it is growing, shrinking, or staying stable. The data can then be used to calculate
a population's growth rate and predict population size in the near future.
shrinking, or staying stable. The data can then be used to calculate a
population's growth rate and predict population size in the near future.
Change in Population Size = Births - Deaths + Immigrants - Emigrants.
Assuming that population growth is dictated by four processes where
two of the processes, birth and immigration, increase population numbers and
two of these processes, death and emigration, lead to a decrease in numbers.
It assumes that the population is open to individuals coming and going. If the
population is closed, then population growth is simply the difference between
the number of births and deaths. If births are greater than deaths, then the
population grows; whereas, if births are less than deaths, then the population
declines. Lastly, if births equal deaths, then the population stays the same size
and is considered stable over time. Rather than describing in words what
happens, we can write a simple equation:
50
 Here ⧍N is the change in population size, B is the number of births in
the population, and D is the number of deaths. Instead of talking about the
number of births or deaths in the population as a whole, we can also talk about
the per capita birth rate (b) and per capita death rate (d). If reproduction and
death are continuous (i.e., individuals are born and die throughout the time
sampled), we can describe population growth rate using a simple exponential
equation where:

where dN/dt is the instantaneous change in population numbers over the

change in time, t. The term b - d is the instantaneous change in the population
per individual per unit time, which we can abbreviate with r. If r, the
instantaneous growth rate, is greater than zero, the population grows since r
times N is positive. If r is less than zero, the population declines. An r equal to
zero results in a stable population
The model of the US population over the last 210 years have been
represented using the exponential and logistic growth model. In this laboratory
project, the students will use the models of exponential and logistic growth to
model the growth of population of a particular state. Population data for several
states are provided in a given set of table values.

Objectives
1. to obtain the difference of time t in years from to
2. to identify the growth rate and population size as time t
increases at an exponential rate.
3. to graph the exponential growth rate model.
4. to predict the population at time t using linear extrapolation and
to graph the linear extrapolation model.
5. to identify carrying capacity and population size as time t
increases at an logistic growth rate.
6. to predict population using Euler’s method

51
7. to differentiate between the exponential and logistic growth
models in curve shape, equations and predicted future
population sizes
8. define (verbally and graphically) a carrying capacity

52
 II. Methodology
The population size of each of the states in USA were as follows:

Procedure
1. Given the population data of every particular state in U.S. from 1790 to 2000,
the state of Massachusetts was the subject for the modelling of the
exponential and logistic population growth
2. For the exponential growth of the population of Massachusetts from 1790 to
2000, the rate of increased was first determined through the differential
equation:

where rmax is the maximum per capita rate of increase.

3. After determining the rate of increase, the exponential function is determined
and the values were plotted in a scattered graph

53
4. For the logistic growth of the population of Massachusetts from 1790 to 2000,
the rate of increased was first determined through the differential equation:

where
rmax is the maximum per capita rate of increase.
N is the population size
K is carrying capacity
5. After determining the variables, the exponential function is determined and the
values were plotted in a scattered graph

54
III. Results and Discussions
A. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL
From the differential equation for exponential model,
𝑑𝑃
= 𝑘𝑃
𝑑𝑇
𝑃(𝑡) 𝑑𝑃 𝑡
∫𝑃0 = 𝑘 ∫0 𝑑𝑇 (Equation 1)
𝑃

ln 𝑃 = 𝑘𝑡
𝑃(𝑡)
ln( ) = 𝑘𝑡
𝑃𝑜
𝑃(𝑡)
= 𝑒 𝑘𝑡
𝑃𝑜
𝑷(𝒕) = 𝑷𝒐 𝒆𝒌𝒕 (Equation 2)
The table presented below are the values of the population of Massachusetts
from 1790 to 2000. From the data, the value of k is obtained using equation 1.
Table 1. Table showing the Actual Population and the difference of time t
in years from the t=0
Year t (difference from Population Size
the to)
1790 0 379
1800 10 423
1810 20 472
1820 30 523
1830 40 610
1840 50 738
1850 60 995
1860 70 1231
1870 80 1457
1880 90 1783
1890 100 2239
1900 110 2805
1910 120 3366
1920 130 3852
1930 140 4250

55
 1940 150 4317
1950 160 4691
1960 170 5149
1970 180 5689
1980 190 5737
1990 200 6016
2000 210 6349
Letting the year 1790 be the time t = 0 and Po = 379,
6349 210
𝑑𝑃
∫ = 𝑘 ∫ 𝑑𝑇
379 𝑃 0

6349
ln( ) = 𝑘10
379
𝒌 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟏𝟓
The rate of increase in population is 0.013425.
After the value of k was determined, the population at time t was
predicted using the equation 2 by plugging the value of k and Po.
𝑷(𝒕) = 𝟑𝟕𝟗𝒆𝟎.𝟎𝟏𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟏𝟓𝒕 (Equation 3)
Table 2. Table showing the Actual Population and its equivalence in
Exponential Function
Year t (difference from the to) Actual Population P(t)=379e0.0134215t
1790 0 379 379
1800 10 423 433
1810 20 472 496
1820 30 523 567
1830 40 610 648
1840 50 738 741
1850 60 995 848
1860 70 1231 970
1870 80 1457 1109
1880 90 1783 1268
1890 100 2239 1451
1900 110 2805 1659
1910 120 3366 1897

56
 1920 130 3852 2170
1930 140 4250 2481
1940 150 4317 2838
1950 160 4691 3245
1960 170 5149 3711
1970 180 5689 4245
1980 190 5737 4854
1990 200 6016 5552
2000 210 6349 6349
The table shows the size of the population of Massachusetts at time t
using exponential function derived in equation 3. The output values are positive
for all values of t. As t increases, the output values grow without bound.
To predict the population in 2010, equation 3 is used.
At 2010, t=220
𝑃(𝑡) = 379𝑒 0.0134215𝑡
𝑃(220) = 379𝑒 0.0134215∗220
𝑷(𝟐𝟐𝟎) = 𝟕𝟐𝟔𝟏
In 2010, the population of Massachusetts is predicted to 7, 261 in size.

Graph 1. Exponential Growth Model of the Population of Massachusetts

Population of Massachusetts
7000

6000

5000
PopulatioN size

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1780 1820 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020
Years since 1790

Actual P(t)=379e0.013428t

The graph above shows the graph of the actual population size and the
exponential population size of Massachusetts at time t in years. The growth in
57
the value of a quantity, in which the rate of growth is proportional to the
instantaneous value of the quantity.
Calculation of 2010 Population using Extrapolation
Table 3. Massachusetts Population Difference
Year t (difference Populatio P(t)=379e0.0134 Difference of
215t
from the to) n Size two succeeding
years
1790 0 379 379 44
1800 10 423 433 49
1810 20 472 496 51
1820 30 523 567 87
1830 40 610 648 128
1840 50 738 741 257
1850 60 995 848 236
1860 70 1231 970 226
1870 80 1457 1109 326
1880 90 1783 1268 456
1890 100 2239 1451 566
1900 110 2805 1659 561
1910 120 3366 1897 486
1920 130 3852 2170 398
1930 140 4250 2481 67
1940 150 4317 2838 374
1950 160 4691 3245 458
1960 170 5149 3711 540
1970 180 5689 4245 48
1980 190 5737 4854 279
1990 200 6016 5552 333

Change of population in year 2000 is not included in the table since there
is no historical data in year 2010 that would give a population difference for year
2000. The change of population ranges from 44 – 566 which indicates that
between these values are the allowable changes in the population.

58
 The initial population Po can be easily varied to obtain different values of
k. Thus, the exponential function can likewise vary and can result to a different
size prediction of the population in the year 2010 but the value will not deviate
largely from the value obtained using equation 1.
By setting the year 1990 to be the time t=0 and Po = 6016, and 2000 to
be the time t=10 and P(10) = 6349
𝑃(𝑡) 𝑑𝑃 𝑡
∫𝑃0 = 𝑘 ∫0 𝑑𝑇
𝑃
6349 𝑑𝑃 10
∫6016 𝑃 = 𝑘 ∫0 𝑑𝑇
6349
𝑙𝑛 = 𝑘(10)
6016
𝑘 = 0.005387473354
Therefore,
𝑃(𝑡) = 6016𝑒 0.0053875𝑡
(Equation 4)
The first model in equation 3 is either correct but equation 4 is derived
for greater accuracy. By setting the year 1990 to be the time t=0; in 2010;
t = 20:
𝑃(𝑡) = 6016𝑒 0.0053875(20)
𝑷(𝟐𝟎) = 𝟔𝟕𝟎𝟏
letting year 1990 be t0 , k = 0.005387473354
Year t Actual P(t)=6016e0.00538758t Difference
1990 0 6016 6016 333
2000 10 6349 6349 352
2010 20 PREDICTED POPULATION : 6701

letting year 1790 be t0 , k = 0.0134215064

Year t Actual P(t)=379e0.0134215t Difference
1990 200 6016 5552 333
2000 210 6349 6349 911
2010 220 PREDICTED POPULATION : 7261

In the case of the first model, there is a difference of 911, which is a large
deviation from the acceptable range of changes to be considered. While on the
second model, the difference is 352 which fits in the range of the allowable
change from 44 – 566.

Graph 2. Massachusetts’ State Population versus Time

population vs. time

Linear (Series1)

6400
6350 10, 6349
6300
POPULATION

6250
6200 y = 33.3x + 6016
6150
6100
6050
6000 0, 6016
5950
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
TIIME (YEARS)

In order to obtain higher accuracy on the value, the equation of the line
which is true for all the points in the line can be used to get the population in
2010.
𝑦 = 33.3𝑥 + 6016
𝑃(𝑡) = 33.3𝑡 + 6016
At t = 20 (20 years since 1990), P (t) =?
𝑃(20) = 33.3(20) + 6016
𝑃(20) = 666 + 6016
𝑷(𝟐𝟎) = 𝟔𝟔𝟖𝟐
The calculated population in 2010 using extrapolation is 6682. This value
is highly acceptable because 6682 is in between the range of the approximated
values from 6680-6700. Thus, using extrapolation method, the population in
year 2010 is 6682.

B. LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL

 𝑑𝑃 𝑃
= 𝑘𝑃(1 − )
𝑑𝑡 𝐿

𝑑𝑃 𝐿−𝑃
= 𝑘𝑃( )
𝑑𝑡 𝐿

𝑑𝑃 𝑘
∫ = ∫ 𝑑𝑡
𝑃(𝐿 − 𝑃) 𝐿

1 1 1
∫ ( + ) 𝑑𝑃 = 𝑘 ∫ 𝑑𝑡
𝐿 𝑃 𝐿−𝑃

𝑙𝑛|𝑃| − 𝑙𝑛|𝐿 − 𝑃| = 𝑘𝑡 + 𝐴

−𝑙𝑛|𝑃| + 𝑙𝑛|𝐿 − 𝑃| = −𝑘𝑡 − 𝐴

𝐿−𝑃
ln ( ) = −𝑘𝑡 − 𝐴
𝑃

𝐿−𝑃
= 𝐴𝑒 −𝑘𝑡
𝑃

At t=0, P=Po

𝐿−𝑃𝑜
= 𝐴𝑒 −𝑘(0)
𝑃𝑜

𝐿−𝑃𝑜
=𝐴 (Equation 5)
𝑃𝑜

𝐿
− 1 = 𝐴𝑒 −𝑘𝑡
𝑃

𝐿 = (1 + 𝐴𝑒 −𝑘𝑡 )𝑃

𝐿
𝑃(𝑡) = 1+𝐴𝑒 −𝑘𝑡 (Equation 6)

Where: L carrying capacity of the model

𝟏 𝒅𝑷
Calculation of 𝑷 𝒅𝑻
1 𝑑𝑃 1 𝑃𝑛+10− 𝑃𝑛
=
𝑃 𝑑𝑇 𝑃 10

(Equation 7)
1 𝑑𝑃
By using equation 2.2, is calculated as follows:
𝑃 𝑑𝑇
Population at year 1790 and 1800 are 379 and 423 respectively.
1 𝑑𝑃 1 𝑃𝑛+10 − 𝑃𝑛
= .
𝑃 𝑑𝑇 𝑃 10
At 1790,
1 𝑑𝑃 1 423 − 379
= .
𝑃 𝑑𝑇 379 10
1 𝑑𝑃
= 0.011609499
𝑃 𝑑𝑇
1 𝑑𝑃
Respective values of shown in Table 4 are calculated using the
𝑃 𝑑𝑇

same solution presented above.

𝟏 𝒅𝑷
Table Year
4. Values at given time, t
Massachusetts (1/P ) dP/dT
𝑷 𝒅𝑻

1790 379 0.011609499

1800 423 0.011583924
1810 472 0.010805085
1820 523 0.016634799
1830 610 0.020983607
1840 738 0.034823848
1850 995 0.023718593
1860 1231 0.018359058
1870 1457 0.022374743
1880 1783 0.025574874
1890 2239 0.025279142
1900 2805 0.02
1910 3366 0.014438503
1920 3852 0.010332295
1930 4250 0.001576471
1940 4317 0.008663424
1950 4691 0.009763377
1960 5149 0.010487473
1970 5689 0.000843734
1980 5737 0.004863169
1990 6016 0.005535239
 2000 6349 --
1 𝑑𝑃
These calculated values of are to be plotted against the population
𝑃 𝑑𝑇
1 𝑑𝑃
at a given time t. Graph 2 shows the scatter plot of 𝑃 𝑑𝑇 versus population.
𝟏 𝒅𝑷
Graph 2. vs Population
𝑷 𝒅𝑻

(1/P ) dP/dT vs. Population Size

0.04
0.035
0.03
(1/P ) dP/dT

0.025
0.02
y = -3E-06x + 0.0224
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Population Size

1 𝑑𝑃
By adding a linear trend line from the graph of 𝑃 𝑑𝑇 versus P, an

equation of a line in the form y= mx + b is created

y= -3x10-6 x + 0.0224

y= mx + b
−𝑏
where b (intercept) is equal to the k-value and m(slope) is equal to 𝐿 .

From the given values of m and b, the variable L will be calculated and will set
the carrying capacity for the model.

Calculation of Carrying Capacity, L

k-value: b= .0224
−𝑏
slope: m= = -3 x 10-6
𝐿

−𝑏
= −3 𝑥 10−6
𝐿
−0.0224
= −3 𝑥 10−6
𝐿
𝐿 = 7467
Calculation of A, Constant
 At time t=0, Po = 379; A is obtained using equation 5
𝐿 − 𝑃𝑜
𝐴=
𝑃𝑜
7466.666667 − 379
𝐴=
379
𝐴 = 18.70096746
𝐿
From equation 2.1 where P(𝑡) = , predictions on population at
1+𝐴𝑒 −𝑏𝑡

year 2010 can be solved. By setting year 1790 as t=0, population in year 2010
can be predicted.
𝐿
𝑃 (𝑡 ) =
1 + 𝐴𝑒 −𝑏𝑡
Logistic Growth Model for population in Massachusetts:
7466.67
𝑃(𝑡) = 1+(18.70096746)𝑒 −.0224𝑡 (Equation

8)
Population prediction for the year 2010:
t=220:
7466.6667
𝑃 (𝑡 ) =
1 + (18.70096746)𝑒 −.0224𝑡
7466.6667
𝑃 (𝑡 ) =
1 + (18.70096746)𝑒 −(.0224)(220)
7466.6667
𝑃 (𝑡 ) =
1 + (18.70096746)𝑒 −(.0224)(220)
𝑃(𝑡) = 6576.167 ≈ 6577
Table 5. P (t) of Massachusetts using Logistic Model
Year Population Size t P(t)Logistic
1790 379 0 379.000
1800 423 10 468.190
1810 472 20 576.660
1820 523 30 707.721
1830 610 40 864.829
1840 738 50 1051.389
1850 995 60 1270.449
1860 1231 70 1524.307
1870 1457 80 1814.041
 1880 1783 90 2139.023
1890 2239 100 2496.514
1900 2805 110 2881.440
1910 3366 120 3286.473
1920 3852 130 3702.471
1930 4250 140 4119.241
1940 4317 150 4526.515
1950 4691 160 4914.938
1960 5149 170 5276.879
1970 5689 180 5606.914
1980 5737 190 5901.966
1990 6016 200 6161.116
2000 6349 210 6385.220
2010 ------ 220 6576.424

Table 5 shows the respective population for a given year using the
logistic model. It can be seen from the table that the historical data of population
from year 1790 to 2000 is near to the calculated values using the logistic model.
The relationship of the actual historical data to the P(t) using the logistic model
implies that the predicted population in year 2010 is acceptable. Thus, the
predicted population using logistic model is 6577.
By graphing the table values of P(t) in logistic model versus time, it can
be said that the values calculated fits to the model.
Graph 3 Logistic Population Size vs. Time

Logistic Population Size vs. Time

7000
6000
Logistic Population

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Time (years)
 Graph 3 shows the logistic curve for the calculated population. The
curve shown is a sigmoidal curve which follows the general form of curves for
logistic-modelled population which shows that the calculated values are
allowable, making the predicted 2010 population acceptable.
By comparing the historical data and P(t) logistic in graph 3, it can be seen
from both graphs that population is almost equal from year 1790 to 2000. This
shows that the logistic model displays a set of population that is highly
acceptable since the calculated population using the model is near to the actual
data.
Graph 4 Graphical comparison between historical data and

LOGISITIC POPULATION SIZE AND ACTUAL POPULATION SIZE

7000
6000 P(Historical Data) P(Logistics)
POPULATION SIZE

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1840

1890

1940

1990
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830

1850
1860
1870
1880

1900
1910
1920
1930

1950
1960
1970
1980

2000
YEAR
P(t)Logistic

EULER’S METHOD
Euler’s method (or the tangent-line method) is a procedure for
constructing approximate solutions to an initial value problem for a first-order
differential equation.
The general recursive formula for Euler’s method:
𝑌𝑛+1 = 𝑌𝑛 + ℎ𝑓(𝑋𝑛 , 𝑌𝑛 ) ; 𝑛 = 0,1,2 …
(Equation 9)

Where: h- stepsize for the model

𝑓(𝑋𝑛 , 𝑌𝑛 ) - First-order differential equation.
 For the population model of Massachusetts, n= 0 in year 1790, n=1 in
year 1800 and n + 1 as the general formula for a given year. The first-order
differential equation,𝑓(𝑋𝑛 , 𝑌𝑛 ), to be used is based on the given logistic model:
𝑑𝑃 𝑃
= 𝑘𝑃 (1 − )
𝑑𝑇 𝐿
Having the calculated values of k= 0.224 and L= 7466.6667 from the
logistic model, the final first-order differential equation (𝑓(𝑋𝑛 , 𝑌𝑛 ) ) is:
𝑑𝑃 1672.533𝑃 − .224𝑃2
=
𝑑𝑇 7466.6667
Substituting 𝑓(𝑋𝑛 , 𝑌𝑛 ) in the Euler’s Formula (Equation 3.0):
1672.533𝑃 − .224𝑃2
𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑛 + ℎ
7466.6667 n= 1790, 1800, 1810… ; h=1
(Equation 10)
Instead of setting a stepsize value (h) of 10, a stepsize of 1 is set from
1790-1800, 1800-1810 and the idea is also applied to all of the given years.
From equation 3.2, the P (population) in the year 1800 is calculated
using the data calculated from the logistic model. The use of data from the
logistic model provides enough values in predicting the 2010 population:
n=0; P1790= Pn=P0 = 378.9999
n+1; P1800 =Pn+1 =P1
1672.533𝑃 − .224𝑃2
𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑛 + ℎ
7466.6667
1672.533𝑃𝑛 − .224𝑃𝑛2
𝑃1800 = 𝑃1790 + (1)
7466.6667
𝑃1800
(1672.533)(378.9999) − (.224)(378.99992 )
= 378.9999 + (1)
7466.6667
𝑃1800 = 378.9999 + 80.5867527
𝑃1800 = 459.5867527 ≈ 460
The same process shown above is also applied in calculating other
values of Pn+1 using the given Pn. Table 3.0 shows the calculated P using the
Euler’s Formula.
Table 6. Population of Massachusetts using Euler’s method
Table 3.0 included the predicted population in the year 2010 which is:
Year P(t)Logistic P(t)Euler's
1790 378.9999999
1800 468.1895303 459.586753
1810 576.6603109 566.4879211
1820 707.7205329 695.8560813
1830 864.8287908 851.2238501
1840 1051.388823 1036.112536
1850 1270.449188 1253.737319
1860 1524.307279 1506.608515
1870 1814.040841 1796.046661
1880 2139.023223 2121.663583
1890 2496.51396 2480.901719
1900 2881.439609 2868.755517
1910 3286.473137 3277.801126
1920 3702.471059 3698.615803
1930 4119.240919 4120.575653
1940 4526.514855 4532.906329
1950 4914.938392 4925.773878
1960 5276.878507 5291.18579
1970 5606.91394 5623.535654
1980 5901.965686 5919.737894
1990 6161.115988 6179.009767
2000 6385.21963 6402.425188
2010 6576.4238 6592.377651
6592.377651 ≈ 6593
Population in year 2010 is calculated applying the similar steps done in
equation 3.2 where Pn is the population in year 2000 from the logistic
population model.
P2000= Pn= 6385.21963
n+1; P2010 =Pn+1
 1672.533𝑃 − .224𝑃2
𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑛 + ℎ
7466.6667
1672.533𝑃𝑛 − .224𝑃𝑛2
𝑃2010 = 𝑃2000 + (1)
7466.6667
𝑃2010
= 6385.21963
(1672.533)( 6385.21963) − (.224)( 6385.219632 )
+ (1)
7466.6667
𝑃2010 = 6385.21963 + 207.1580204
𝑃2010 = 6592.37765 ≈ 6593
The predicted 2010 population using Euler’s method is 6593.
Calculation of population in year 2050
Using Euler’s formula, population in year 2050 is calculated by getting
the population from year 2010-2040 in the logistic model as shown in table 3.1.
After getting the predicted population in year 2040 which is the P n for this case,
Pn+1 or the year 2050 can be readily calculated applying the same solution
presented for equation 3.2.
Table 7. Population of Massachusetts from 2010-2040
Year P(Logistic) P(Euler’s)
2010 6385.21963 6402.425188
2020 6737.69275 6752.061938
2030 6872.39888 6885.040518
2040 6984.007801 6994.919932
2050 7075.859627

From table 3.1, the predicted population in year 2040 is 6984.007801≈

6984. This 2040 population is set as Pn to get the 2050 predicted population.
Calculating the P2050,
P2040= Pn= 6984.007801
n+1; Pn+1 = P2050
1672.533𝑃 − .224𝑃2
𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑃𝑛 + ℎ
7466.6667
1672.533𝑃𝑛 − .224𝑃𝑛2
𝑃2050 = 𝑃2040 + (1)
7466.6667
 𝑃2050
(1672.533)(6984.007801) − (.224)(6984.0078012 )
= 6984.0078011)
7466.6667
𝑃2050 = 6984.007801 + (1)(101.1264867)
𝑃2050 = 7085.134288 ≈ 7086
The predicted 2050 population using Euler’s Method is 7086.
From the given models that have been used to predict the population in
2010 and 2050, it can be said that the predicted populations are significant and
these values are close enough to be considered as the actual population. This
idea is implied by the series of comparisons that are made between the
extrapolation method and exponential model and also Euler’s method for the
logistic growth model that show acceptable results with respect to the historical
data presented. Both models show acceptable results in predicting the
population.
IV. Conclusion
From the anticipated populations utilizing the two models, exponential
and logistic growth model, it can be derived that both models are substantial in
terms of the population of Massachusetts. But the graphical and numerical
arrangements to decide which model is convenient to utilize within the
examination of information appeared that the calculated demonstrate is more
appropriate and worthy within the calculation and forecast of population for a
given time compared to the exponential demonstrate.
V. References

Audesirk, e. a. (2011). Life on Earth. Prentice Hall.

Darwin, C. (1997). The Voyage of the Beagle [eBook - RBdigital]. Project
Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation,.
Michael L. Cain, N. J. (2008). Ecology/a Primer of Ecology. Sinauer
Associates Incorporated.
Turchin, P. (2013). Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical
Synthesis (MPB-35). Princeton University Press.
 LABORATORY REPORT RUBRIC
GROUP 5
DIFFERENTIAL CALCULUS
EXCELLENT GOOD SATISFACTORY UNSATISFACTORY GRADE
CRITERIA
91-100% 81-90% 71-80% 70-61%
Making Sense of The interpretation and/or The interpretation and/or The interpretation and/or The interpretation and/or
the Task translation of the task are: translation of the task translation of the task are: translation of the task are:
Interpret the  thoroughly developed and/or are:  partially developed and/or  underdeveloped,
concepts of the task  enhanced through connections  adequately developed  partially displayed  sketchy
and translate them and/or extensions to the other and  using inappropriate concepts
into mathematics mathematical ideas or other  adequately displayed  minimal and/or
contents  not evident
Representing and The strategy and representations The strategy and The strategy and representations The strategy and representations
Solving the Task used are: representations used are used are used are
Use models,  elegant (insightful)  effective and  partially effective and/or  underdeveloped,
pictures, diagrams  complex  complete  partially complete  sketchy
and/or symbols to  enhanced through  not useful
represent and solve comparisons to other  minimal
the task situation and representations and/or  not evident and/or
select an effective generalizations  in conflict with the
strategy to solve the solution/outcome
task.
Communicating The use of mathematical The use of mathematical The use of mathematical language The use of mathematical
Reasoning language and communication of language and and communication of the language and communication of
Coherently the reasoning are: communication of the reasoning are: the reasoning are:
communicate  elegant (insightful) and/or reasoning are:  are partially displayed with  underdeveloped
mathematically and  enhanced with graphics or  follow a clear coherent significant gaps and/or  sketchy
clearly use examples to allow the reader to path throughout the  do not clearly lead to a  inappropriate
mathematical move easily from one thought entire work sample and solution/outcome  minimal and/or
language to another  lead to clearly identified  not evident
solution/outcome
Accuracy The solution/outcome is correct The solution/outcome is The solution/outcome is correct The solution/outcome is correct
Support the and enhanced by: correct and enhanced by: and enhanced by: and enhanced by:
solution/outcome  extensions  correct  incorrect due to minor error, or  incorrect and/or
 connections  mathematically  a correct answer but work  incomplete, or
 generalizations, and/or justified, and contains minor error  correct but conflict with the
 asking a new questions leading  support by the work  partially complete and/or work or not supported by the
to new problems  partially correct work
Reflecting and Justifying the solution/outcome The solution/outcome is The solution/outcome is stated The solution/outcome is not
Evaluating completely, the student reflection stated within the context within the context of the task, and clearly stated identified and/or
State the also includes of the task, and the the reflection justifies the the justification is
solution/outcome in  reworking the task using a reflection justifies the solution/outcome completely by  underdeveloped
the context of the different method, solution/outcome reviewing  sketchy
task. Defend the  evaluating the relative completely by reviewing  the task situation,  ineffective
process evaluate effectiveness and/or efficiency  the interpretation of the  concepts  minimal
and interpret the of different approaches taken, task  strategies  not evident and/or
reasonableness of and/or  concepts  calculations and/or  inappropriate
the solution/outcome  providing evidence of  strategies  reasonableness
considering other possible  calculations, and
solution/outcomes and/or  reasonableness
interpretations
TOTAL
AVERAGE

Rater: Engr. CAESAR P. LLAPITAN Date:_____________________________

Instructor