Area Development and Policy

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Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness

into urban planning under data constraints: a
fuzzy logic and bricolage approach

Ronita Bardhan

To cite this article: Ronita Bardhan (2017): Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into
urban planning under data constraints: a fuzzy logic and bricolage approach, Area Development
and Policy, DOI: 10.1080/23792949.2017.1338523

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2017.1338523

Published online: 22 Jun 2017.

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AREA DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY
https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2017.1338523

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into

urban planning under data constraints: a fuzzy logic
and bricolage approach
Ronita Bardhan

ABSTRACT
To increase city climate resilience, a rapid data-constrained flood-proneness assessment (FPA) technique
for the Kolkata Metropolitan Region (KMR) in India is proposed, and a conceptual urban-climate plan
(UCP) framework capable of incorporating the FPA outputs into the mainstream planning process is
developed. To overcome data and computational demands of FPA mapping, this integrated framework
is based on the concept of data bricolage and integrates four flood-conditioning factors – surface
elevation, normalized difference water index (NDWI), flow accumulation and surface run-off – into a
single output using fuzzy inference. The KMR results show that elevation had the most significant impact
on flood proneness, and that NDWI and surface run-off played a vital role in more urbanized areas.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Received 16 May 2016; Accepted 1 June 2017
KEYWORDS
Urban-climate plan, urban flood risk, fuzzy clustering, fuzzy overlay, urbanizationrapid assessment
JEL
Q54; R14; R28; Q55; O21; H12; C45

在数据约束下将洪水风险快速评估融入城市规划：模糊逻辑与基于现有资源构建的方法. Area Develo-

pment and Policy. [为提高城市的气候顺应力，本文提出了一项在数据约束下对加尔各答大都市地区
（KMR）进行快速洪水风险评估（FPA）的技术，并建立起一个可以将FPA结果纳入主流规划过程的’
城市气候计划’概念框架。为克服FPA制图的数据和计算需求，该集成框架基于利用现有数据资源构
建的理念，通过模糊推断将洪水的四种制约因素（水面高度、归一化水指数（NDWI）、汇流累积量与
地表径流）整合成一整套输出结果。KMR的结果显示，水面高度对洪水风险的影响最大，NDWI和地表
径流在城市化程度较深的地区起到了重要的作用。 ]

城市气候计划, 城市洪水风险, 模糊聚类, 模糊叠置, 城市化, 快速评估

Integración de una evaluación rápida del riesgo de inundación en la planificación urbana con datos
limitados: un enfoque con lógica difusa y datos de bricolaje. Area Development and Policy. Para aumentar
la resiliencia frente al cambio climático en las ciudades se propone una técnica rápida de evaluación del

CONTACT ronita.bardhan@iitb.ac.in; ronita@stanford.edu

Centre for Urban Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India; and
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

© 2017 Regional Studies Association

2 R. Bardhan

riesgo de inundación con datos limitados para la región metropolitana de Calcuta, y se desarrolla un marco
conceptual de ‘Plan de Clima Urbano (UCP)’ capaz de incorporar los resultados de la evaluación del riesgo
de inundación en la planificación general. A fin de superar las demandas informáticas y de datos de la
elaboración de mapas para la evaluación del riesgo de inundación, este marco integrado se basa en el
concepto de bricolaje de datos e integra cuatro factores condicionantes de inundación (elevación de la
superficie, índice de agua de diferencia normalizada (NDWI, en sus siglas inglesas), acumulación de flujo y
escorrentía superficial) en un único resultado mediante inferencia difusa. Los resultados para la región
metropolitana de Calcuta muestran que la elevación tenía el efecto más significativo en el riesgo de
inundación y que el NDWI y la escorrentía superficial desempeñaban un papel vital en áreas más
urbanizadas.

plan de clima urbano, riesgo de inundación urbano, aglomeración difusa, solapamiento difuso,
urbanización, evaluación rápida

Интеграция оперативной оценки подверженности затоплению в градостроительное планирование в

условиях нехватки данных: нечеткая логика и бриколажный подход. Area Development and Policy.
Методика оперативной оценки подверженности затоплению в условиях нехватки данных разработана
для метрополитенского региона Калькутты в целях повышения устойчивости города к изменению
климата. Также разработана концептуальная схема «Градо-климатического плана», в которую
интегрируются результаты оперативной оценки. Для преодоления недостатка данных и решения
вычислительных проблем эта комплексная концептуальная схема опирается на концепцию бриколажа
данных и объединяет четыре фактора затопления (высота участка над уровнем моря, нормализованный
разностный водный индекс (NDWI), накапливаемость потоков и поверхностный дренаж) в единый
показатель с использованием нечеткой логики. Результаты для метрополитенского региона Калькутты
показывают, что высота участка имеет наибольшее значение для подверженности затоплению, и что
NDWI и поверхностный дренаж играют важную роль в более урбанизированных районах.

градо-климатический план, риск городских наводнений, нечеткая кластеризация, нечеткое наложение,

урбанизация, оперативная оценка.

1. INTRODUCTION

The flood proneness of a city is an essential indicator of city resilience (Fernández & Lutz, 2010).
Delineation of flood zones and estimating the spatial stretch of risks is considered an essential step for
urban climate planning (Al-Abadi, Shahid, & Al-Ali, 2016). Studies show that coastal regions,
especially those from developing countries, are at the highest risk from climate-induced flooding, and
that there is a need for rapid vulnerability assessment and resilient frameworks for these cities (Balica,
Wright, & Van der Meulen, 2012; Bezuijen, Charlotte, & Mather, 2011; Nitivattananon, Tu,
Rattanapan, & Asavanant, 2012). In India, most megacities are in coastal zones which are flood-risk
hotspots (Bardhan, Kurisu, & Hanaki, 2015; Jameson & Baud, 2016). Among these, Kolkata is
considered to be the most susceptible to riverine flooding (Balica et al., 2012; Bardhan et al., 2015;
IPCC, 2012; UN-Habitat, 2011; World Bank, 2011). A World Bank (2011) study on Kolkata
estimated that the occurrence of disaster from climate change-induced flooding is expected to double
by 2030. Coupled with unplanned urbanization that increases the likelihood of the overuse of land in
flood-prone areas, the likelihood of extreme precipitation makes flood-proneness mapping an
essential instrument of sustainable urban planning (Bardhan et al., 2015; Ran & Nedovic-Budic,
2016). Considering the obvious risk from flooding, recognizing a flood-susceptibility map as an
essential layer in urban planning for Kolkata is imperative (Bardhan, Debnath, & Bandopadhyay,
2016; Bubeck, Botzen, & Aerts, 2012).

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 3

Modelling urban flooding is a complex task that needs multiple data inputs for reliable
prediction. Researchers have proposed a wide range of flood-proneness prediction and delineation
models that promise to provide a reliable flood-susceptibility map for a region based on multiple
datasets (Gnecco, Morisi, Roth, Sanguineti, & Taramasso, 2016; Li et al., 2016; Lin et al., 2016;
Rathjens et al., 2016). Typically, these models require detailed inter/intra-geo-environmental
datasets that necessitate intensive and complex computations (Tien Bui et al., 2016). The required
databases are costly to acquire and require collation from multiple agencies. The multiplicity of the
ownership and onus on the agencies often makes it difficult to acquire these data for a common
platform (Ran & Nedovic-Budic, 2016). Especially in India, where traditional urban planning does
not generally include non-urban-use or climate-change information, infusing a flood-susceptibility
layer into the existing planning framework is a challenge (Sofia, Roder, Dalla Fontana, & Tarolli,
2017). Apart from data challenges and resources constraints, the computation of flood-related
vulnerability is time consuming and often just amounts to scholastic advances with controlled test
datasets. Replicating these model outcomes on the ground produces results that are limited and
increase uncertainty. Existing methods are mostly standalone alternatives and integrating them
with prevailing systems is difficult. There is therefore a need for a standardized methodological
framework that can enable the integration of flood proneness into existing urban planning
processes in a rapid manner.
This study proposes a methodological framework for rapid assessments of flood proneness
using open-source geographical information and technologies for the Kolkata Metropolitan
Region (KMR). Aiming to provide outputs that can be easily integrated into current spatial
planning practices, its importance is that it provides information that can improve land-use
planning and support mitigation in areas detected as prone to flooding. This can then lead to
re-scripting of planning for rapid preparedness.
This framework is confined to the assessment of regional-level flood proneness based on
hydrological, geomorphological and meteorological factors, as they play a central role in flood
behavior through a fundamental interplay with the elevation of the landscape across multiple
spatial scales (Cao et al., 2016). Moreover, for developing countries like India where hydro-
meteorological events are very frequent, models that incorporate hydro-meteorological datasets
are most pertinent. Kolkata’s distinctive geomorphology, flat terrain conditions, high-intensity
rainfall and dense population make it suitable for the use of hydro-geo-meteorological datasets
for flood-proneness prediction. Kolkata Municipal Corporation (the administrative authority
for urban planning in Kolkata, West Bengal) is currently in the process of formulating the
urban-climate plan (UCP). This plan requires the integration of rapid flood-proneness pre-
diction into the urban planning process, which itself requires rapid assessments of flood
proneness that overcome data and time constraints coupled with complex modelling with
multiple datasets.
The first objective of this study is to develop a conceptual framework for preparing a UCP,
primarily in the Kolkata context, where data are sparse. Next, it aims to identify the specific
data in geographical information system (GIS) format that can aid rapid flood-proneness
assessment (FPA). The third step involves the development of a multi-criteria decision
algorithm that acts as a decision-support tool for FPA and can subsequently be integrated
into an urban planning system.
The paper is organized as follows. The next section elaborates the conceptual framework
for integrating climate-mitigation planning with the city planning system with rapid FPA as
one of the critical components. Section 3 explores the related literature on FPA and rapid
planning processes. A description of the methodology adopted and datasets used in section 4 is
followed by a description of study area in section 5. The final section 6 discusses the findings
and concludes with a discussion on the possible future scope of research in this domain.

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4 R. Bardhan

2. CITY AND CLIMATE ACTION PLANNING: A CONCEPTUAL

FRAMEWORK

Climate-sensitive urban planning plays a vital role in adapting to the effects of a changing
climate. Especially in flood-prone areas, spatial planning can contribute to flood mitigation by
influencing the incidence of flooding and its consequent damage through the impact of plans
at multiple scales from the local to the national on the crucial factors that lead to flooding.
Planning authorities also have more power than flood-mitigation agencies in altering spatial
planning in flood-prone areas (Butler & Pidgeon, 2011; Ran & Nedovic-Budic, 2016). While
an integration of flood mitigation and spatial planning is imperative, such integration con-
fronts several barriers. For a long time urban planning and climate action planning have been
dealt with as parallel systems. Although spatial planners are adept in handling GIS informa-
tion (spatial and non-spatial databases), they lack expertise in global climate, urban-precipita-
tion run-off and hydraulic modelling that enables the identification of flood proneness
(Sander, Hoppe, & Schlobinski, 2011). The data required for complex FPAs are also costly
and often difficult for urban planners to access and process. The curation and processing of
such data are also time intensive. To overcome these inadequacies in current city planning
practice, especially in mainstreaming climate change in the planning process, an integrated
framework is required. This integration should strengthen linkages between two systems
facilitating data and output interoperability (Bardhan et al., 2016; Pacheco-Torres, Roldán,
Gago, & Ordóñez, 2017; Ran & Nedovic-Budic, 2016). Since urban planners are primarily
concerned about the damage to public property due to urban flooding, a decision-support
system that provides for end-user interaction with flood assessment variables and provides
output in GIS layers can enable a seamless integration of FPA with city planning. Thus, in
this study a conceptual framework that integrates city and climate action planning is put
forward. The climate action inputs are derived from a rapid assessment technique for identify-
ing the spatial distribution of flood proneness. The technique allows for outputs that can be
easily adopted as a spatial planning layer.
Conceptually the framework for a climate-responsive city plan or UCP can be considered
as an integrated function (see equation 1) of the development of (1) the spatial urban planning
layers and (2) the climate action plans, i.e., the indicators of climate change such as critical
spots of flood proneness (areas with a high risk of flooding):

Urban
Climate Plan ¼ f ðUrban Planning layers; Climate action layersÞ (1)

Here the city-planning process is visualized as a system of multiple layers representing the
spatial distribution of urban land use, transportation, housing, city utilities etc. and the
climate-action planning layers representing flood proneness or other environmental stresses
like urban heat hotspots (Figure 1). It is expected that the climate-action layers will be created
using open-source data processed through a specialized algorithm that (1) allows for rapid
assessment through data bricolage, i.e., making do with data i.e. in hand for new purposes; (2)
is information literate, i.e., can identify when the data provide information; and (3) is data
dynamic, i.e., can incorporate additional data as and when available. This algorithm outputs a
flood-proneness spatial layer, which recognizes urban vulnerability, acts as one of the input
layers for spatial planning and makes possible climate-sensitive urban planning actions by
identifying and analyzing alternatives and outcomes (Ran & Nedovic-Budic, 2016). For
example, a city planning process for flood resilience has to consider drainage planning and
flood protection based on precipitation-runoff models (Sander et al., 2011), correlating the
drainage infrastructure layers with the critical spots within the city that are vulnerable to
flooding due to climate change.

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 5

Figure 1. Integrated framework for the urban-climate plan (UCP) with a flood-proneness assess-
ment (FPA) model.

3. FLOOD PRONENESS ASSESSMENT (FPA)

A large literature deals with FPA. Various techniques and diverse viewpoints relating to
climate change-related risks, urbanization-induced vulnerability or economic loss, and
human inequality have been used (De Brito & Evers, 2016; Tehrany, Pradhan, Mansor, &
Ahmad, 2015). Governments all over the world have now recognized that floods are the ‘most
destructive natural hazard’, noticeably changing human lives and having drastic effects on
urban systems (Faulkner, McCarthy, & Tunstall, 2010; Yao, Chen, & Wei, 2017). Hence,
more efforts are now underway to understand the spatial distribution of flood risks. Flood
mapping is one such technique, widely used for identifying potential high risk areas (Fayne
et al., 2017; Li, Wang, Emrich, & Guo, 2017; Teng et al., 2017). It is also considered as an
essential step to prevent and manage future flooding. Area flood susceptibility estimation has a
non-linear structure arising from the complexity of the existing geomorphological triggers. It
involves multiple data inputs for reliable prediction. The growing accessibility of satellite
remote-sensing data and the advancement of GIS in handling multi-dimensional events like
flooding has led to the development of wide range of multi-criteria flood hazard assessment
decision models (Meyer, Haase, & Scheuer, 2009). De Brito and Evers (2016). Most of these
models use GIS to analyse and transform multiple spatially correlated input factors into a
single output model using various knowledge-based weighting, computing and data-mining
techniques (Tehrany et al., 2015).
In GIS, FPAs are generally studied at a variety of spatial and temporal scales using hydrological,
hydraulic and meteorological data inputs into probabilistic and statistical models (Aksoy, Kirca,
Burgan, & Kellecioglu, 2016). Since urbanization affects hydrological processes, it is necessary to

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6 R. Bardhan

use a hydrological model that can assess the impacts of urban spatial patterns on geophysical factors
that affect catchment runoff, such as soil condition, climate, land cover etc. (Yao et al., 2017). Based
on specific flood-zonation outputs and allowable uncertainty, the empirical methods used in
practice include the weighted linear combination (WLC) technique applied in a GIS environment
(Yahaya, Ahmad, & Abdalla, 2010), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (Teng et al., 2017),
a system dynamic approach (see TOPMODEL in Kia et al., 2012), and the hydrological and
stochastic rainfall method (Blazkova & Beven, 1997).
Most of these models are limited by the uncertainty associated with predictions of the
flood zones and usually use only rainfall inputs and runoff outputs without taking into
consideration factors causing flooding. In general, flood-susceptibility evaluation methods
assign a probability of flood occurrence or an indicator of the potential consequences based
on various variables associated with flood vulnerability. Since the probabilities of occurrence
involve a high degree of arbitrariness or vagueness, it becomes impossible to assign any distinct
threshold. To decrease estimation uncertainty and overcome this problem, recent studies focus
on techniques like artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and neuro-fuzzy logic to make flood
predictions (Ashrafi, Hock Chye Chua, Quek, & Qin, 2016; He, Zhou, Kou, Lu, & Zou,
2011; Hundecha, Bardossy, & Werner, 2001; Lohani, Kumar, & Singh, 2012; Mukerji,
Chatterjee, & Raghuwanshi, 2009). The fuzzy method is more helpful as flood proneness is
based on linguistic variables such as high/low or yes/no rather than on precise boundaries
(Zadeh, 1965). Its methodology can handle such linguistic rule sets where attributes have
zones of gradual transition, rather than sharp boundaries. The choice of fuzzy methods also
allows for the use of expert opinion and its integration within the GIS modelling process.
In fuzzy-set FPAs, the membership values of the flood-causative elements are based on a
mathematical function known as membership function. The elements of a fuzzy set can be
assigned full (100%) or partial (0% - 100%) membership. Computation is based on ‘degrees of
truth’ rather than the usual ‘true or false’ (1 or 0) distinction of Boolean logic. This capability of
fuzzy methodology can be used to represent the relative contribution of flood-causative factors to
flood proneness. Fuzzy classification permits the seamless integration of satellite images, categor-
izing them into a superior number of classes for flood-causative factors like land cover. These
models have high computational efficiency and can extract information from incomplete or
contradictory datasets within a limited time and space frame, and they have a much shorter run
time than hydrodynamic models. They are also most suited for large study areas and/or stochastic
modelling for probabilistic flood-risk assessment and can produce realistic inundation maps from
datasets where there is uncertainty, resulting in large scatter of prediction (Teng et al., 2017).
These models enable non-linear and realistic forecasts for the generation of rapidly assessed,
‘humanized’ risk maps (Araya-Muñoz, Metzger, Stuart, Wilson, & Carvajal, 2017).
Since the aim is to integrate FPAs into existing urban planning practice, it is important to
use existing resources. Here spatial database construction for flood prediction involves the
adoption of the concept of bricolage. Bricolage denotes the conceptual process of ‘making do
with what is at hand’ and has been used to represent resourcefulness and adaptability within an
existing context (Lévi-Strauss, 1967). It enables the creation of tools that are unrestricted
priori and evolve with time and increases in resource availability. This method entails the
dynamic assembly of ongoing transformations and reconfigurations and rapid of integration
into the existing process without creating a demand for additional resources. Although the
concept of bricolage has been used across many disciplines, few researchers have explored its
strengths in urban planning and disaster management (Herk, Zevenbergen, Ashley, & Rijke,
2011; Jihad & Jacques, 2012).
In this study, fuzzy inference for data processing is coupled with bricolage (using available
open-source datasets in a context of data constraint) for the rapid generation of a composite
potential flood map for integration of flood causative factors into urban planning in the KMR

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 7

in a GIS environment. The results will permit policy-makers and the disaster management
authority to formulate plans and strategies with a quicker response time, satisfying one kind of
integrity constraint for urban planning databases.

4. DATASETS AND METHODOLOGY

The flood-proneness index was developed in two steps (Figure 2). In the first step, an overall
spatial database was constructed using the flood-conditioning factors identified in the litera-
ture on the nature, extent and magnitude of flood impacts. Then an aggregation model using
the selected spatial database was established to calculate the flood-proneness index.

4.1. Spatial database construction

The first step in flood-proneness mapping is constructing a spatial database using data related
to flood-conditioning factors. Since the primary aim is to bridge the data constraint, the
spatial database was designed to include only open-source data through the bricolage process.
The flood-conditioning factors were then evaluated in the light of the relationship between
flooding and its causative factors, and then the flood-proneness index was constructed.
Research on flood mapping suggests that there is no universal rule set for selecting causative
factors (Khosravi, Pourghasemi, Chapi, & Bahri, 2016).
In the case of the KMR, natural, developmental and climate change factors primarily affect
flooding. The natural factors in the KMR include its distinctive bowl-shaped terrain, low relief
and land subsidence, owing to high ground water extraction to meet the pressures of
urbanization. The developmental factors pertain to the ways in which unplanned haphazard
urban growth, the low carrying capacity of the existing drainage infrastructure, and high
surface runoff owing to increased urbanization-induced imperviousness have created

Figure 2. Methodology adopted for constructing the flood-proneness index.

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8 R. Bardhan

differential geographies of flooding risk. Climate change such as increased intensity of pre-
cipitation contribute to the intensity of flooding (Dasgupta, Gosain, Rao, Roy, & Sarraf,
2013). Hence, a digital elevation model (DEM) of the KMR was chosen as the most
important controlling factor in flood-proneness mapping. More specifically, an open-source
moderate resolution shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) DEM with a resolution of 30
metres, obtained from the NASA Earth Explorer website1 was used. The new SRTM DEM
data have a 1 arc-second (about 30-metre) resolution, with World Geodetic System (WGS)
84 datum and Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection. Apart from the DEM, data
relating to soil, lithology (for surface run-off), a normalized difference water index (NDWI),
land cover (for surface run-off) and precipitation (for flow accumulation) were used to
construct a spatial database using GIS and optical satellite image processing. In general,
normalized difference spectral indices (NDSIs) are suitable for detecting open water surfaces
and inundated areas (Feng, Gong, Liu, & Li, 2015; McFeeters, 2013). The database consisted
of Arc GIS 10.2 raster-type spatial datasets. To generate the NDWI, linear imaging self
scanning sensor (LISS-III) and multi-spectral IRS-P6 satellite data were used.2 All other
datasets were freely accessible using a user generated login ID and password in the respective
web portals.

4.2. Flood-proneness mapping using a spatial multi-criteria fuzzy model

The fuzzy set concept was applied to the flood causative factors to derive fuzzy inputs: each
identified contributing variable was coded and fuzzified before using them as inputs to the
fuzzy inference where fuzzy rule based modelling was employed to predict flood proneness. To
delineate flood proneness, four datasets were used as predicting layers: DEM, NDWI, surface
run-off and flow accumulation.
A series of fuzzy operations were performed on these datasets to generate the comprehen-
sive probability surface of flood proneness (Figure 3). Flood hazard mapping using fuzzy
clustering on satellite-derived data is an economical and efficient method for mapping
potential flood hazard zones and dealing with the problem of the inadequate data resources
of developing countries (Garg & Garg, 2016; Islam, Bala, & Haque, 2010; Suriya & Mudgal,
2012). The SRTM DEM, NDWI, a DEM-derived flow accumulation map and Soil
Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN)-based runoff models were used with fuzzy
membership methods to derive the final probability surface. The integrated GIS and fuzzy
logic computations were performed using a fuzzy inference system (FIS) in ArcGIS 10.2,
described below.

4.2.1. SRTM DEM processing and filling voids

One of the basic problems affecting the quality of SRTM data are voids or pixels in the
raster data (missing data). Voids are areas where the pixel has ‘no value’ or a zero value. A
result of shadowing, layover caused due to poor signal return, or other radar-specific factors,
voids appear primarily in high-elevation areas, but may be misinterpreted as low-elevation
points in the DEM and as sinks in the terrain that in the case of a flood will be inundated
first, making flood-proneness mapping erroneous. Correcting for voids is therefore essential
before employing the data for further analysis. To create a corrected DEM, the raw SRTM
data were processed using the ArcGIS 10.2 elevation void fill function. The fill operation
removes such errors and generates an interpolated DEM which is comparable with real earth
surfaces.

4.2.2. Normalized difference water index (NDWI)

The NDWI is employed to identify water and non-water features. McFeeters (1996, 2013)
developed the model for delineating the spatial extent of open water and enhancing its

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 9

Figure 3. Preparation of the data for flood-proneness mapping. Text in italics denotes the source of data.

detection in remotely sensed digital image (Qiu, Du, Zhu, & Fan, 2017; Rosser, Leibovici, &
Jackson, 2017) The calculation of NDWI is based on:

ðGreen
NIRÞ
NDWI ¼ (2)
ðGreen þ NIRÞ
In multi-spectral satellite imagery, water features have positive values, while terrestrial features,
soils and vegetation have zero or negative values, which can be easily ignored in any image-
processing software. The brightest pixels represent high values of the NDWI depicting rivers
or wetlands. Generally flood proneness is seen to be high in areas with high NDWI values
(Ganaie, Hashaia, & Kalota, 2013)

4.2.3. Flow accumulation

As with surface elevation, the flow accumulation capacity of an area enables the identifica-
tion of areas with a high propensity to accumulate water. The accumulated flow is the sum

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10 R. Bardhan

Figure 4. Fuzzy inference system.

of the water flowing down slope into cells of the output raster. High values of accumulated
flow indicate areas of concentrated flow and, consequently, higher flood hazard (Kazakis,
Kougias, & Patsialis, 2015). Here the flow accumulation map was derived from the filled
SRTM DEM of 30-metres resolution. The flow accumulation map was generated through
two consecutive processes. First, the DEM was processed to generate the flow direction
using the flow direction operator in ArcGIS, and then the generated flow direction map
was processed through the flow-accumulation operator to generate the flow accumulation
map. Evidently the areas that have high flow-accumulation values had higher propensities
to flooding.

4.2.4. Surface runoff

Predicting the flooding propensity of a water shed from surface run-off data is common in
hydrological engineering and modelling. Here surface runoff was estimated for different
combinations of soil group and land-use classes. The antecedent moisture condition (AMC)
classes were derived using the SCS-CN method, originally developed by the SCS (US
Department of Agriculture) (Soulis & Valiantzas, 2012). This method uses downscaled rain-
fall data and a land-use–land-cover map derived through supervised classification of a MSS
LISS III dataset using a maximum likelihood classifier. It provides an aggregation method for
the factors that affect runoff generation and finally incorporates them in a single CN para-
meter. Each sub-catchment uses a CN to characterize the runoff properties for a particular soil
and land cover. The CN value is a primary input parameter for the SCS runoff equation.
Although there is no agreement on the methodology to estimate the CN, in this study the CN
values were based on hydrological soil categories. Here ‘high’ CN values like 98 indicate that
most of the rainfall will drain as runoff, with minimal losses, and ‘low’ values like 58
correspond to an increased ability of the soil to retain rainfall, producing less runoff.
The downscaled rainfall data were acquired from http://www.worldclim.org/, where inter-
polated rainfall surfaces for the period 1950–2000 are archived. The downscaled rainfall data
were based on the global climate model (GCM) from CMIP5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment). The
study area was classified into five major Land Use Land Cover (LULC) classes: green cover,
urban area, water body, wetlands and agricultural land.
A soil texture map for the KMR was obtained from http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/. This
map was used to classify hydrological soil groups (HSGs) to indicate the maximum rate of
infiltration for bare soil after prolonged wetting. The HSGs were classified on the basis of

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 11

their infiltration responses. The HSG classes (A, B, C, D) are essential for determining the
runoff CNs. The major soil texture classes found in the KMR area are loam, clay loam, clay
and sandy clay. In the KMR, primarily two types of HSG are available: the B group (loam)
and D (clay loam, clay and sandy clay). Table 1 records the runoff CNs based on the LULC
and HSGs.
Finally, to derive the surface runoff, the SCS-CN model was used to derive runoff from
rainfall depth. The general equations described here were obtained from Soulis and Valiantzas
(2012). The underlying theory of the SCS-CN model is that runoff is related to soil cover and
rainfall through a CN. This model assumes that the ratio of actual soil retention after the
runoff begins to potential maximum retention is equal to the ratio of the direct runoff to the
available runoff (Xiao, Wang, Fan, Han, & Dai, 2011). The SCS-CN water-balance estima-
tion method can be expressed as:

P ¼ Ia þ F þ Q; (3)

Q=P
Ia ¼ F=S (4)

Ia ¼ λS: (5)
where P is the total precipitation (mm); Ia is the initial abstraction (mm); F is cumulative infiltration
(mm); Q is direct runoff (mm); S is the potential maximum retention (mm); and λ is the initial
abstraction coefficient (0.2). Combining equations (3) and (4) yields:

ðP
λ Þ2
Q¼ for P > λ (6)
P
λþS
which is valid for P > Ia . Otherwise, Q = 0 for P  Ia . For the constant value of Ia (0.2s), S
can be determined from the P
Q data. In practice, the potential retention, S, is expressed in
terms of the CN through the relationship in (7a):
1000
S¼
10 (7a)
CN
This equation was originally used with S measured in inches. However, for SI units (where S is
measured in mm), S is calculated using (7b):

Table 1. Relationship between the Land Use Land Cover (LULC), hydrological soil group (HSG) and
curve number (CN).
LULC Soil texture HSG CN
Urban Loam B 98
Clay, clay loam, sandy clay D 98
Green Cover Loam B 69
Clay, clay loam, sandy clay D 84
Water Body Loam B 0
Clay, clay loam, sandy clay D 0
Wetlands Loam B 100
Clay, clay loam, sandy clay D 100
Agricultural Land Loam B 77
Clay, clay loam, sandy clay D 84
Source: European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC).

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12 R. Bardhan

25400
S¼
254 (7b)
CN
where S ! 1 when CN = 0 and S ¼ 0, when CN = 100.
The CN (a dimensionless number ranging from 0 to 100) was determined from a look-up
table based on LULC, HSG and CN.

4.2.5. Fuzzy inference system

A fuzzy inference system was the procedure to develop a mapping from a given input to an
output using fuzzy logic functions. The fuzzy inference system included membership func-
tions, rule sets and fuzzy logic operations, and was developed in ArcGIS 10.2.
The membership function is the mathematical function that defines the degree of an
input’s membership of the fuzzy set. The fuzzy logic toolbox in ArcGIS includes seven
specific algorithms to fuzzify the input raster. These membership types employ a spread
parameter (from 1 to 0) to determine how rapidly the fuzzy membership value decreases.
Fuzzy membership values depict the impact of high as opposed to low elevation on flood
proneness. An expert system interface can also be used to decide how to combine
different factors using AND and OR operators (Raines, Sawatzky, & Bonham-Carter,
2010).
As far as the fuzzy membership functions were concerned, the potential impact on flood
proneness of the four contributing factors identified in this study area were identified in the light
of a literature review and expert opinions. More specifically, each pixel of a causal factor could
assume a value in the range of no proneness (membership value = 0) to maximum susceptibility
(membership value = 1) with no practical constraint on the choice of values in this range. For
example, it is evident that all values of surface elevation less than 5 metres have higher
propensities to flood, and as the elevation decreases the propensity to flood increases. Hence,
to assign the transition membership values to the DEM raster, a linear function was used: as the
elevation increased the contribution of the DEM at that point to flood proneness decreased, any
value between 0 and 5 metres will have a decreasing effect, and all values above 10 metres will
have no effect on flood proneness. The details of the membership functions and the membership
values reflecting the strength of the contributions of each factor are set out in Table 2. The fuzzy
membership tool in ArcGIS 10.2 was used to assign the functions and values.
To generate the aggregate flood proneness map, the fuzzy logic tool in ArcGIS 10.2 was
used. The fuzzified factors were combined using the fuzzy overlay operators and certain defined
rule sets. In combining fuzzified maps given by μA ðxÞ, μB ðxÞ . . ., μN ðxÞ, for the same set, a
variety of operators can be employed to integrate the membership values. There are five fuzzy
operators available in the ArcGIS 10.2 interface, namely fuzzy OR, fuzzy AND, fuzzy product,
fuzzy sum and gamma. With the fuzzy ‘OR’ and ‘AND’ operators, the fuzzy membership value
of only one of the overlapping pixels at a point determines the resultant value. If the fuzzy
algebraic ‘SUM’ and ‘PRODUCT’ operators are used, the resultant set is larger or equal to the
maximum value and smaller or equal to the minimum value of all the fuzzy sets (as seen in
Vakhshoori & Zare, 2016).
In this study, the fuzzy SUM overlay model was used to integrate the data and identify the
predictable flood-prone zones. In the case of two fuzzified maps μA ðxÞ, and μB ðxÞ, the fuzzy
SUM is given by:

μAþB ðxÞ ¼ μA ðxÞ þ μB ðxÞ
μAB ¼ 1
ð1
μA Þð1
μB Þ (8a)

where μA ðxÞ denotes the membership in class A; and μB ðxÞ denotes the membership in class B;
and the operator ‘SUM’ yields an increasing linear combination function that is based on the

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 13

Table 2. Fuzzy membership functions for the factors contributing to flooding.

Membership
Variable function type Description Graphical representation
DEM Linear

Rationale: elevations below 5 m have a high risk of flooding

Flow Large
accumulation

Rationale: areas with high flow accumulation have a high possibility of flooding. Therefore, a large
function was chosen

Runoff Large

Rationale: the higher the runoff, the higher the propensity for flooding. Therefore, high runoff values
were assigned high membership values

NDWI Linear

Rationale: values more than 0.5 are for perennial rivers or streams that do not get inundated (e.g., River
Hoogly), and hence are not considered for flood map preparation. However, wetlands within an urban
area can get saturated and contribute to flooding due to overflow
Note: For details on the membership function, see Raines et al. (2010).

number of criteria entering into the analysis. Hence, in general form for multiple fuzzified
maps the basic form would be:
Yi¼1
Fuzzy algebraic ½SUM: μsum ðxÞ ¼ 1
μi ðxÞ (8b)
n

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14 R. Bardhan

Figure 5. Location of study area.

The fuzzy SUM operators provide more flexibility than the additive weighted overlay and
weighted sum tools that, in contrast to the former, assume that the more favourable the input
the more prone is the location. Using this fuzzy overlay application, the fuzzy sum overlay
added the fuzzy membership values of each of the flood-conditioning factors to identify the
flood proneness of each zone (Figure 4).

5. STUDY AREA

As already mentioned, the KMR was chosen as the study area (Figure 5). It has an area of
1875 km2 and falls under the jurisdiction of the Kolkata Metropolitan Development Authority
(KMDA), which is the agency responsible for planning, promoting and developing the KMR.
The KMR has a population of 16.7 million and a density of 7978 persons/km2.
Administratively, it comprises three municipal corporations including Kolkata Municipal
Corporation, 38 municipalities responsible for urban governance and 24 panchayat samitis
responsible for rural governance. Geographically, it lies between 22.329 and 23.000 N latitude
and 88.066 and 88.556 E longitude. Geologically and geo-morphologically, the KMR is
located in the lower deltaic plain of the Ganges Delta system where the soil is clay and clay
loam. The River Hoogly dissects the study area into equal parts. This area includes the world’s
most densely populated city of Kolkata. On the south-eastern fringes lies the East-Kolkata
Wetlands which also acts as the sewage filter for the city of Kolkata itself.

6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

6.1. Factors contributing to flooding

Figure 6 shows the spatial distribution of flood controlling factors: surface elevation, NDWI,
flow accumulation and surface run-off. The KMR region lies in a flood plain and, hence,
elevation is relatively low across the entire study area. Kolkata city proper has much lower
elevation and slopes from west to east, as do the east Kolkata wetlands. Major urban areas fall
within a surface elevation range of 0–6 metres, thus creating higher flood proneness.

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 15

Figure 6. Spatial variations in flood-controlling factors: (a) surface elevation, (b) normalized
difference water index (NDWI), (c) surface run-off and (d) flow accumulation.

The water index is an effective technique for discriminating soil and vegetation response to
flooding. This index ranges from 0 to 1. The majority of the raster pixels have NDWI values
between 0.4 and 1.0 with most raster pixels having values more than 0.56. Areas with higher
NDWI values are potentially more vulnerable to frequent flooding than any other places.
The raster of flow accumulation generated values ranging from 0 to 270,923. In the KMR,
the larger values were generally found in areas near the Hoogly Basin and also areas from
Kolkata city towards the east Kolkata wetlands. Accumulated flow generally depicts greater
vulnerability to flooding, and the flooding risk associated with the KMR watershed.

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16 R. Bardhan

Figure 7. Predicted flood proneness of Kolkata Metropolitan Region (KMR).

Finally, the surface runoff values were in the range of 127–306 mm. Higher values were
near the urbanized part of the KMR rather than the rural part. Moreover, the majority of
Kolkata city had runoff values of more than 260 mm, indicating a very high propensity to
flooding due to the large volume of runoff associated with a high degree of impermiability.

6.1.1. Flood-proneness prediction

The aggregation framework involving a fuzzy inference system enabled the four critical flood-
contributing variables to be combined to produce a rapid assessment of the potential flood
proneness of the KMR (Figure 7). The results show that in the KMR region’s flood proneness

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 17

is highly correlated with urbanization. The south-eastern part had a flood proneness of 0.94.
This figure can be interpreted as meaning it is 94% more prone to flooding compared with
other areas in the KMR. This entire region is highly prone to flooding owing to its lower
elevation, high NDWI and high surface run-off. The average elevation of these areas is
between 1 and 2 metres above sea level, so the chances of flow accumulation is also very
high. Most of these areas belong to the East Kolkata Wetlands, where large water bodies are
responsible for the high sensitivity to rainfall-associated flooding. According to the KMDA,
‘despite the economic prosperity of the city, the metropolis of Kolkata suffers from loss of city
wetlands which causes frequent flooding’ (Dasgupta et al., 2013).
The northern, north-eastern and north-western part of the region is relatively less prone to
flooding (flood proneness of 0.5), mainly because of its relatively high elevation compared with
the other parts of the region. Places like Kalyani, Gyeshpur and Bhatpara are in this region.
However, micro-level flooding also exists, meaning that ward- or sub-ward-level flooding can
occur due to local phenomena such as damage to sewage systems (as evidenced from the
annual report of separate municipalities accessed through the KMDA).
Chandanagar and Baidyabati, on the west embankment, and Kanchrapara and Ichapur, on
the east embankment, have a moderate risk of flooding (flood proneness of 0.83–0.89).
Therefore, if there is any over-saturation of the River Hoogly due to extreme rainfall events,
there is a chance of flooding in future.
The city-proper Kolkata Municipal Corporation has the highest proneness to flooding
(flood proneness of 0.94–1.0). The primary causal factor leading to flood in Kolkata city is
surface runoff from the high level of urbanization. Elevation and NDWI do not play a
significant role in flooding in this area. Increased rainfall intensity increases the peak discharge
and volume of runoff for a given infiltration rate. Over the past few decades, intensive human
activity, particularly unplanned concretization and urban encroachment, has resulted in
increasing runoff in the Kolkata Municipal Corporation region.
High flood risks also exist in parts of Howrah on the opposite bank of the River Hoogly.
The southern parts of the KMR are moderately sensitive to flooding, while the extreme
southern parts are highly prone to flooding. A continuous man-made water channel is located
along the extreme southern part of the KMR. The existence of a high NDWI may explain the
increase in proneness to flooding in this area. All these places are small villages that come
under the KMR.

7. CONCLUSIONS

Mitigating flood damage requires the collation of a rapid FPA with spatial planning. In a
context of data constraint, the integration of flood proneness into urban planning is usually
difficult for several reasons: inadequate knowledge on the part of the user, lack of interoperable
outputs, complex algorithms and lack of a simple integration framework. In the present
research, an integrated framework for a UCP was put forward and a flood-proneness evalua-
tion technique whose outputs can be incorporated in the spatial planning process for timely
decisions was developed and applied to the KMR.
The research involved three main stages: the identification of open-source data on factors
that contribute to flooding; rapid-proneness mapping; and their incorporation into the urban
planning system. The data required for flood mapping were identified from available open
sources that had similar standards and resolutions, and had formats that could be processed in
GIS. Four causal factors were identified: site elevation, NWDI, flow accumulation and volume
of surface run-off potential. These factors were chosen carefully based on relevance, availability
and scale attributes. Since statistical approaches require conditional independence of causal
factors, the use of many other factors that differ across regions and across research studies was

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18 R. Bardhan

precluded. While elevation played a vital role, affecting flood proneness over the entire region,
NDWI and anthropogenic variables like increased runoff increased the risk of flooding in the
urban areas, especially in the highly urbanized Kolkata city.
The processing of LISS-III and SRTM satellite images is a powerful tool for analyses
of flood-conditioning factors. These analyses can distinguish and detect flood proneness
reliably. A comprehensive spatial database was constructed. This database acted as an input
to the proposed fuzzy inference system for integrating the causal factors into a single
outputted flood-proneness map. This method reduced the complexity of such assessments
and required minimal inputs from the urban planners. The system also provided the
flexibility of producing the resultant maps using data bricolage and helped the urban
planners design actions to control and mitigate flood phenomenon in the study area.
Data bricolage reduced the decision time by incorporating data that were already available
to the urban planners for other planning purposes (LULC map, soil information for the
siting of building zones etc.). The planners and decision-makers can now prevent urbani-
zation in the flood-prone zones identified in this study and mitigate damage from floods.
This study paves pathways towards future urban-climate planning where flood-proneness
maps can form the basis for incorporating climate resilience into the urban planning
process. The use of a fuzzy system-based framework opens up the possibility of incorpor-
ating advanced state-of-the-art techniques such as deep-learning algorithms. Using deep
learning would enable the processing of complex data and the extraction of information
from incomplete datasets while learning from the data at each iteration, creating the
possibility of more quickly making city-resilience decisions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The author thanks Mr Subhajit Bandyopadhaya, Research Assistant at the Center for Urban
Science and Engineering (C-USE), Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, for helping with
data collection. Part of this work was presented at the HYDRO 2015 International: 20th
International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources and River Engineering, Roorkee,
India (can be cited as Bardhan R., Bandopadhyay, S, & Gupta, K. (2015). Rapid Estimation
of Flood Prone Zones under Data Constraint Scenario: A Fuzzy Modelling Approach. Paper
presented at the HYDRO 2015 International: 20th International Conference on Hydraulics,
Water Resources and River Engineering, Roorkee, India.)

Funding

This work was supported by the Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD),
Government of India (GOI), project entitled ‘Urban Form and Extreme Precipitation
Events: Are Compact Cities More Vulnerable to Flooding?’ [grant number
14MHPCU001], the Centre for Excellence Frontier Areas of Science & Technology
(FAST) [grant number 14MHRD005], and the IRCC-IIT Bombay [grant number
16IRCCSG1015]. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in
this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the MHRD, GoI
and/or IRCC-IIT Bombay.

NOTES

1 See http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/.
2 See http://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in/data/download/index.php/.

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 Integrating rapid assessment of flood proneness into urban planning under data constraints 19

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

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