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Periodo Demanda Promedio 02 Periodos Promedio 03 Periodos Promedio 04 Periodos
Periodo Demanda Promedio 02 Periodos Promedio 03 Periodos Promedio 04 Periodos
1 37
2 31
3 39 34
4 40 35 36
5 23 40 37 37
6 28 32 34 33
7 31 26 30 33
8 41 30 27 31
9 38 36 33 31
10 25 40 37 35
11 32 32 35 34
12 38 29 32 34
13 35 32 33
Promedio 05 periodos ERROR P2 P s.DMA P2P
5 5
5 5
-17 16.5
34 -4 3.5
32 6 5.5
32 12 11.5
33 2 2
32 -15 14.5
33 1 0.5
33 10 9.5
35 -35 35
108.5
DMA 8.35
Periodo Demanda Peso Peso * Demanda PMP 2 Meses ERROR s.DMA
1 37 0.05 1.85
2 31 0.1 3.1
3 39 0.05 1.95 2 37 37
4 40 0.1 4 3 37 37
5 23 0.05 1.15 3 20 20 7
6 28 0.05 1.4 3 25 25
7 31 0.05 1.55 1 30 30 6
8 41 0.05 2.05 1 40 40
9 38 0.1 3.8 2 36 36 5
10 25 0.05 1.25 3 22 22
11 32 0.2 6.4 3 29 29
PMP 2 Meses
4
12 38 0.15 5.7 4 34 34
13 1 6 6 311 3
f(x
R²
2
DMA 26
1
0
0
PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
PMP 2 Meses
Linear (PMP 2 Meses)
7
5
PMP 2 Meses
3
f(x) = 0.208636363636364 x + 1.09681818181818
R² = 0.281074771030812
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Periodo
O
8181818
10 12 14
Alfa = 0.1
Alfa*Dema (1-Alfa) * Pronostico
Periodo Demanda real
nda real Pronostico
1 37
2 31 4 33 37
45
3 39 3 33 36
4 40 4 33 37 40
5 23 4 33 37
6 28 2 33 36 35
f(x) = − 0.2843
7 31 3 32 35
8 41 3 31 34
30 R² = 0.770333
9 38 4 31 35 25
Pronostico
10 25 4 32 35
20
11 32 3 32 34
12 38 3 31 34 15
10
0
0 2
SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
Pronostico Linear (Pronostico) demanda Real
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Periodo
12 14
Alfa = 0.2
Alfa*Dema (1-Alfa) * Pronostico Error de
Periodo Demanda real
nda real Pronostico Pronostico
1 37 0 0
2 31 7 30 37 -6 50
3 39 6 30 36 3
4 40 8 29 36 4
40
5 23 8 29 37 -14
6 28 5 30 34 -6
30
f(x) = 1.03
7
8
31
41
6
6
27
26
33
33
-2
8
R² = 0.13
20
Pronostico
9 38 8 26 34 4
10 25 8 27 35 -10
11 32 5 28 33 -1 10
12 38 6 26 33 5
0
0 2
-10
-20
SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
Pronostico Linear (Pronostico) Error de pronostico
50
40
30
f(x) = 1.03123468925315 x + 25.1022646830545
R² = 0.134263973347151
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-10
-20
Periodo
45
12 14
Alfa = 0.1
Demanda Alfa*Dema (1-Alfa) * Pronostico Error de S.DMA
(Desviacion
Periodo
Media
real nda real Pronostico Pronostico Absoluta)
1 37 0 0 0 40
2 31 4 33 37 -6 6
3 39 3 33 36 3 3
f(x)
4 40 4 33 37 3 3 30 R² =
5 23 4 33 37 -14 14
6 28 2 33 36 -8 8
20
7 31 3 32 35 -4 4
8 41 3 31 34 7 7
Pronostico
9 38 4 31 35 3 3 10
10 25 4 32 35 -10 10
11 32 3 32 34 -2 2
12 38 3 31 34 4 4 0
0
63
-10
DMA 5.3
-20
SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
Pronostico Linear (Pronostico) Error de pronostico DMA
40
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-10
-20
Periodo
DMA
6524758
10 12 14
Periodo Demanda Pronostico de regresion ERROR s.DMA
1 37 34.18 2.82 2.82
2 31 34.07 -3.07 3.07
3 39 33.96 5.04 5.04
4 40 33.85 6.15 6.15
5 23 33.75 -10.75 10.75
6 28 33.64 -5.64 5.64
45
7 31 33.53 -2.53 2.53
8 41 33.42 7.58 7.58 40
9 38 33.31 4.69 4.69
10 25 33.20 -8.20 8.20 35
Demanda
20
REGRESION LINEAL SIMPLE DMA 5.21
SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL DMA 16.00 15
PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO DMA 26.00
PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE DMA 8.35 10
0
0 2
REGRESION LINEAL SIMPLE
Demanda Linear (Demanda)
45
40
35
15
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Periodo
788
12 14
Periodo Demanda PM 3 S.DMA Peso Peso * PMP 3
Real Meses 1 Demanda Real Meses
1 127 0.2 25.4
2 113 0.3 33.9
3 121 0.5 60.5
4 123 120.3 2.7 0.2 24.6 119.8
5 117 119.0 2.0 0.3 35.1 119
6 109 120.3 11.3 0.5 54.5 120.2
7 131 116.3 14.7 0.2 26.2 114.2
8 115 119.0 4.0 0.3 34.5 115.8
9 127 118.3 8.7 0.5 63.5 115.2
10 118 124.3 6.3 0.2 23.6 124.2
11 120.0 49.7 121.6
Método DMA
DMA 1 Promedio móvil de 3 meses. 7.1
DMA 2 Promedio móvil ponderado de 3 meses 7.4
DMA 3 Suavización exponencial 6.2
DMA 4 Regresión lineal 5.7
Alfa = 0.1
S.DMA Alfa*Demanda real (1-Alfa) * Pronostico Pronostico S.DMA Regresion
Suavizacion
2 Exponencial 3 Lineal
11.5 103.50 115.0 12.0 120.0
12.7 103.50 116.2 3.2 120.0
11.3 104.58 115.9 5.1 120.1
3.2 12.1 104.29 116.4 6.6 120.1
2 12.3 104.75 117.1 0.1 120.1
11.2 11.7 105.35 117.0 8.0 120.1
16.8 10.9 105.34 116.2 14.8 120.1
0.8 13.1 104.62 117.7 2.7 120.1
11.8 11.5 105.95 117.4 9.6 120.2
6.2 12.7 105.70 118.4 0.4 120.2
52 11.8 106.56 118.4 62.5 120.2
DMA 4
Demanda Real
140
7.0
120
7.0 f(x) = 0.018181818181819 x + 120
R² = 6.24232713961614E-05
0.9 100
2.9 80
Axis Title
Demanda Real
3.1 60
Linear (Demanda Real)
11.1
40
10.9
5.1 20
6.8 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2.2
Axis Title
57.1
Semana Demanda Demanda Desv. SAEP (Suma actual de los
Pronosticada Real errores de Pronostico)
1 140 137 -3 -3
2 140 133 -7 -10
3 140 150 10 0
4 140 160 20 20
5 140 180 40 60
6 150 170 20 80
7 150 185 35 115
8 150 205 55 170
Sr (Señal de rastreo)
8.00
6.00
Sr (Señal de Rastreo)
4.00
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-2.00
-4.00
PERIODO
Desv. Sumatoria DMA (Desviacion Sr (Señal de
Abs. Desv.Abs. Media Absoluta) rastreo)
3 3 3.00 -1.00
7 10 5.00 -2.00
10 20 6.67 0.00
20 40 10.00 2.00
40 80 16.00 3.75
20 100 16.67 4.80
35 135 19.29 5.96
55 190 23.75 7.16
ESPERADO
OPTIMISTA
PESIMISTA