PROJECT A (M POUNDSTERLING)

Cost Success Probability Failure Probability Success Payoff Failure Payoff

100 0.5 0.5 200 -50

PROJECT B (M POUNDSTERLING)
Cost Success Probability Failure Probability Success Payoff Failure Payoff
100 0.6 0.4 300 -20

Tahun Cost Bunga Majemuk Imbal

1 100 10% 10
2 110 10% 11
3 121 10% 12.1
4 133.1 10% 13.31
5 146.41 10% 14.641
Total 61.051
JECT A (M POUNDSTERLING)
Net Path Value Success Net Path Value Failure Expected Value
100 -150 -25

JECT B (M POUNDSTERLING)
Net Path Value Success Net Path Value Failure Expected Value
200 -120 72

Project A (M POUNDSTERLING) Project B (M POUNDSTERLING)

-86.051 10.949

Project B yang paling menguntungkan karena memiliki nilai

Expected Value +10,949 (M POUNDSTERLING)
 DRILL (M USD)
Cost Success Probability Failure Probability Success Payoff
2 0.3 0.7 100

DON'T DRILL (M USD)

Cost Success Probability Failure Probability Success Payoff
0 0 0 0

RESULT OF DECISION (M USD)

Biaya Pemboran EMV Decision Expected Value
8 28 20

DRILL merupakan Keputusan Akhir karena memiliki

nilai Expected Value +20 (M USD)
 DRILL (M USD)
Failure Payoff Net Path Value Success Net Path Value Failure Expected Value
0 98 -2 28

DON'T DRILL (M USD)

Failure Payoff Net Path Value Success Net Path Value Failure Expected Value
0 0 0 0