Contents lite available at ScienceDirect Journal of Cleaner Production journal homepage: www-elsevier.com/locateliclepro A system dynamics approach for sustainability assessment of biodiesel) production in Colombia. Baseline simulation ens, abe Sandra Bautista *"**, Andrea Espinoza ‘, Paulo Narvaez °, Mauricio Camargo °, Laure Morel” 2 Departament de ngeira Ambiental Grape deinvesigacn Agua y DesaraleSstenble, Uivesided Cena Boat Colombia “Grupo de Process Quimica y Biogulnce, Departament de Igeiera Quincy Ambienl Uriversdad Nacional de Colombia sede Boot, Colombia ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Receive 1 uy 2018 Received in cevied form 1 Deceiver 2018 Avaliable online 17 December 2018 ‘The sue of sustainability assessment of biodiesel production has increasingly gained importance due (o ‘he interest of governments in drawing up sovereignty strategies to diversify their energy matrix and to determine the impact of biouels production. inthis context. this work proposes system dynamics ‘model to assess biodiesel production in a specific context. System Dynamics model was developed and applied to assess the sustainability of the conditions inthe baseline scenario of biodiesel production in Colombia, Simulation of current biodiesel production showed that a strong support from government policies is required related tothe promotion of an increase af the contents of biodiesel inthe biodiesel Aiesel blend, as wel as ofthe production capacity. Certain dynamics were observed as a result of the rmadeling, the increase oil palm cultivation, can be related toa lesser rate of displacement of the pop- lation, of poverty and of emissions of pollutants affecting air quality (hycrocarbons, carbon monckide nd particulate matter). Results also predicted that the increase in oil palm cultivation under barline Scenario could boost inequitable distribution of land ownership and increase greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in palm oi cultwation, and reduce food sec ieyworts Sastanabilty assessment Biodiesel proeuction system dynamics © 2018 Elsevier Ld, Al rights reserved 1. Introduction, acids obtained from vegetable oils and fats (ASTM D6751, 2011). However, regarding the new developments and needs of biofuels Global implications associated with the use of fossil fuels, such. as the effect of oil prices on global economy, and governments concerns about energy security and sovereignty due to oil deple tion, encourage the development of alternative renewable energy sources, One of the alternatives is biomass used as feedstock to produce bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based products. Similarly, the growing demand for energy and the efforts of industrialized Countries to reduce their carbon emissions, especially in the transport sector, promote the production of biofuels such as bio diesel (Gnansounou, 2011) Biodiesel is defined as a mixture of mono-alkyl esters of fatty * Coresponding author. Departamento é¢ Ingenieria Ambiental. Grupo de Investigacion Agu y Desarrollo Sotenibe Universi Cen ‘Email adérese:sosisardocenirledice (Bat pst 1g)101006 clepro201812101 8 sever It. All gh ved secto, its definition has evolved to include other types of biodiesel such as advanced biodiesel and biomass-based diesel (Fa, 2010). ‘These new definitions include the former biodiesel (mono-alkyl esters), a8 well as non-ester renewable diesel (covering cellulosic diesel), which composition is similar to petroleum-derived diesel, and ic could be obtained from biomass, including vegetable oils, fats and cellulosic biomass (Ep2, 2010), Despite the previous fact, most ‘common biodiesel produced industrially isa mixture af mono-alkyl esters of fatty acids (FAME), obtained by methanolysis of oils extracted mainly from rapeseed, soybean and oil palm fruit. Industrial production of biodiesel in Colombia started in 2009, Curtently its produced in seven process plants. Palm oils used as the sole resource for biodiesel production in Colombia, reason why the most ofthe processing plants are located inthe surroundings of oil palm plantations. The total installed capacity of the country is 561,000tjyear. However, biodiesel production in 2015 was 513.354¢, 09% less than 2014 and 2% more than 2013,2 Sot aural f Cleaner Prucson 21 (20 (Fedebiocombustibles, 2016), corresponding to 77% ofthe installed ‘capacity. Compared to 2008, biodiesel production has grown 150%, In 2014 the amount of palm oil traded in biodiesel production was £470,934t, 42% ofthe Colombian production (Fecebiocombustibles, 2016). Despite the technology implemented (Desmet — Ballestra, (CMB Bernardini, etc), all biodiesel is produced through trans” esterification, using an alkaline homogeneous catalyst. and imple: menting the wet purification process of biodiesel. Further information about current biodiesel production technologies can be obtained in the following references:Abbaszaadeh etal (2012) Knothe et al, (2005); Oh et al, (2012); Santor et a. (2012); Sivasamiy etal, (2009); Torres etal. (2008). In Colombia, while the law that promotes biofuels production and commercialization for diesel engines was approved in 2004, ‘only in 2008 a policy to produce biofuels in a sustainable way was defined (CONPES and DNP, 2008). The law establishes tax excep- tions for some crops, inchuding oil palm, and for the biodiesel — diesel blend, Some of the aims of the production of sustainable biofuels in Colombia ate to increase the competitiveness of biofuel production, to generate employment especially in rural areas, to promote rural development and social welfare. Also, itis aimed to ‘promote Colombian biofuel exports, to diversify energy sources, to ‘uarantee the environmental sustainability of biofuels by imple- menting sustainability indicators, and to make decisions related to their supply chain (CONPES and DNP, 2008), Since 2013, itis possible to establish mandatory blends of biodiesel and diesel above B-10, depending on the developments in engine technologies and on the national production of biodiesel (Wlinminas, 2011). Diesel and biodiesel prices are established monthly by the Ministry ‘of Mines and Energy, after considering the international price of crude oil, production costs and taxes, among several factors ‘According to the characteristics of biodiesel production, itis, recognized as a complex system which inked to the sustainability assessment dimension (economic, socal. environmental, political and technological). The formalization of 2 model for biodiesel production system can be done by using different methodologies, For example, SD modeling (Bantz and Deaton, 2006; Franco etal 2015; Franco and Florez, 2008; Musango et al, 2012; Oviedo ot al, 2011; Pruyt and Sitter, 2008; Szarka et al, 2008), Other ex- amples of methodologies are simulation based on agents (HHalog ‘nd Mani, 2011), multi eriteria evaluation, fuzzy logic, structural analysis)method of scenarios and technological evaluation (Beall ‘et al, 2012: Gnansounou, 2011; Rose, 2014) SD has been used by several studies to analyze the market of renewable energy sources. Bantz and Deaton (2008) modeled the biodiesel market to understand the reasons why biodiesel pro- ‘duction capacity grew exponentially in the United States, ie Wit e< al. (2010) applied and developed the “Biotrans” model in Europe, to optimize costs along the supply chain of biofuels. Oviedo eal. (2010) explained the production and consumption of alter- native fuels, like biofuels, based on each country's policies, envi ronmental protection and agricultural development. A SD model representing the behaviour of biodiesel industry considering con- ficting points of view about the use of biofuels was proposed by ‘Oviedo et al. (2011), 1 was used for assessing biodiesel sustain- ability. including a reduced number of indicators, and focused on market behaviour. Musango et al.(2011) and Musango etal. (2012) implemented SD by using the Bioenergy Technology Sustainability Assessment (BIOTSA) model to assess the effects of biodiesel development on selected sustainability indicators for the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Baisa etal. (2015) proposed a SD model for finding the most effective biodiesel policy strategy in Latvia. Franco etal. (2015) performed a SD modeling to approach the understanding of biofuel market in Colombia. Espinoza etl, (2017) tablished a sustainability assessment to support governmental biodiesel policy in Colombia using a system dy- namics model, ‘Although these studies provide a valuable contribution to sus- ‘inability analysis in the biofuels sector, they did nat consider the centite set of sustainability dimensions proposed in this investiga- tion: economic, social, political, environmental and technological. Additionally, such studies did not explain the data collection pro- cess, and how the selection of mathematical relationships between different variables was done In this work, sustainability assessment of biodiesel production, in Colombia will be carried out through a SD model based on sys- tems theory. Systems theory is a transdisciplinary study of phe- ‘nomena. It investigates principles common to all complex entities, and models, usually mathematical, which can be used to describe them (Le Moigne, 2006; UT. 2010). fn this work. a system dynamics (SD) model is defined. designed and assessed as a tool that allows the decision maker to comprehend the behaviour of the biodiesel production system. Inthe Colombian context, considering diferent conditions fr its development. It was employed to establish which conditions will generate sustainable biodiesel production following sustainability principles, criteria and indicators (PC&l).In short, 13 principles and 23 criteria were recommended to become partof the sustainability assessment framework, as shown in Table 1 2. Methods This article is part of a research project following a stepwise sign to assess the sustainability of biodiesel production, Ona first stage, a new hierarchical framework for sustainability assessment ‘as proposed, including the political and technological dimensions in the traditional triple bottom line of sustainability, which defined set of principles, criteria and indicators (PCa) for biodiesel pro- duction (Bautista et al, 2016a)-On the second stage, the set of FC&t ‘was validated through several mechanisms including expert consultation, multivariable statistical analysis and data visualiza- tion techniques (Hautsta et a, 20168). The third stage corresponds to the design ofa system dynamics model and its implementation in Stella® to assess the sustainability of biodiesel production in the Colombian context through the simulation of the baseline scenario. System dynamics (SD) is a methodology used for modeling complex system. It combines analysis and synthesis to establish and formalize relationships between different information flows and structures within a complex system, which facilitates the distinction of feedback mechanisms (Forrester, 2013). Thereby, ‘through SD modeling is possible to understand how the organiza: tional structure, policies and delays in decision-making interact and influence the success or failure of a company of system (Forrester, 2013), ‘SD methodology has five general steps: problem formulation, dynamic hypothesis formulation, description of the model boundary, description of the model structure and definition of the functions that will describe the selected indicators, and testing of, the model and results analysis (Bérard, 2010; Lee et al, 2012; ‘Musango, 2012). Further description about methodology steps is shown in (Fspinoza etal, 2017), The SD model was implemented in the software Stella®, and the baseline scenario was developed. The frst steps, problem formulation, is the identification of the purpose of the model and the focus problem. To identify these two aspects of the system under study is fundamental to guide the modeler to define the boundary of the model, the research hy- pothesis and the time horizon (Sterman, 2002; Musango, 2012). In the second step, dynamic hypothesis formulation, the objective is to define the variables representing each of the dimensions and the relations. In this step, the articulation of the problem and its conceptualization through causal loop diagrams are developed.Butt et Joa of Cee rducinn 213 (2018) 1-20 2 ‘Sonal Tir kespeat propery and ane tenure igs of and acess Pz Saha acceptailty (National energy secuty Goal prespenty 5: Promote responsible work conditions (CeHteath a safety employees haber awe a Prevent aeration to fod supply (b-ood siply Pettial 5 Relationship beteeen national and internasona (C-agreement pationalintesnationa ieee blends Subsidy sebeme: biases! prometion pticies Aevaneed biodiese promotion 2: National diese! procction consistent with Chokiomacs no eile for bogies! production internavonalenironmentl pois {ONNational smant of land stable for biomass Techuologial 9: Teehlogy used promete eine and eduction {ib nluence advanced biodiesel Matketiver Ol of negative entuonmentalunpact (Goo-ntuenceaévanced biodiesel Teehnleos: ‘2osnencecehnologie ends engi (Printvence tecnologia leamingeest, (GQz-Natonl capably bielese esearch Environmental P70: Manta o improve ar, sol and wace ual Gs-Atequaiy 2: frame the conservation and protection af biodiversity acer eof water socal water galt (Ob. Waetersmanaed responsibly Such diagrams describe the complex felationships between di- ‘mensions and indicators, as well as the polarity of the effects and the feedback structures of biodiesel production, and integrate the tconomic, social, environmental, political and technological in- icators. The validation ofthe causal diagram implies asking for the experts’ validation to verity that the model meets the assumptions ‘of mental maps of those who are related to the system, In the third steps, description of the model boundary, the pur- pose is to identify the endogenous and exogenous indicators that enable the best explanation of the problem (Sterman, 2003) Exogenous indicators ate fed to the model, while endogenous in- dicators are calculated using the model and depends on exogenous indicators. The fourth step. description of the model structure, in corporates each indicator in a casual loop diagram using functions (equations or graphic functions). The definition of indicators ofthe ‘model starts establishing if they have 2 pre-established and demonstrated relation Ifthe relation between the variables is not pre-established, the equation will be obtained from historical data by using least squares algorithms (Draper et al. 1998). Finally, the filth step, testing and analysis, validates the model and the system. 3. Calculation 31. Problem formulation The problem formulation was conducted using the sustainabil- ity assessment framework of biodiesel production proposed by (Bautista et al, 2016) named Triple Bottom Line Extended (TBL-~). Which identifies dimensions, principles, criteria and indicators (Pca) for developing a sustainable biodiesel production. The ‘TBL + proposes to integrate the political and technological di- mensions into the three traditional sustainability dimensions (environmental, social and economic), with the aim of strength- ening the multidimensional sustainability assessment, In partic- ular, for biodiesel production assessment, the political dimension is, highly relevant because Government's polices are essential to promote the biodiesel production, creating economic conditions land favorable markets such as subsidies, tax exemptions, and bio- diesel compulsory consumption as a diesel mixture. Furthermore, the technological dimension is also relevant because emerging technologies are competing withthe first generation biodiesel ‘The main arguments for promoting biofuels are their potential Positive effects on environmental, economic and social dimensions because they would help humankind to reduce the negative im- pacts of burning fossil fuels and to extend non-renewable resource availablity while a sustainable feedstock for energy and chemical products is found (Hill eta. 2006), fn addition, biofuel production an promote employment generation, especially in rural areas of developing countries, which contributes tothe reduction of poverty and inequality. Unfortunately, negative effects of biofuel production fn the previously mentioned dimensions gradually changed the perception of this bioenergy and opened a debate about its sus- tainability, Some of the negative effects include alteration of eco- systems, degradation and loss of soil and water, changes in tenure ‘and land use, impact on food security, the negative balance of {greenhouse gases in the life cycle of biofuels. and the economic viability of their production (Gnansounou, 2011; Hill et al, 2006; Janssen and Rutz, 2011) Despite the social benefits associated with employment gener- ation, negative effects on food security and food prices, land use4 Sot aural f Cleaner Prucson 21 (20 and tenure, violence, forced displacement and low job quality should also be considered (Phalan, 2008), Ie was also observed that, in situations where biodiesel production is no longer economically viable, or with lower short-term returns (Ng etal, 2010), govern: rents must set up policies related to tax exemptions and pricing schemes (Craven, 2011). An artificial market which is too reliant on| support measures such as government policies, subsidies and tax ‘exemptions would collapse once these policies and incentives are withdrawn (Ng et al, 2010). ‘As biodiesel industry has been rapidly expanding, aglutof crude lycerol is created, because there is excess of supply. As a conse- ‘quence, the price of crude glycerol i depressed and iti expected to remain low, making it an ideal feedstock for the bio-based chem- jeals (Ciriminna et al, 2014), Some studies (Chuang-Wei Chis et a 2005; Knathe, 2010) stated that the production cost of biodiesel ‘was found to vary inversely and linearly with variations in the market value of glycerol, n this sense, this research explores the relationships between the valorization of the glycerin byproduct through, for example, 1,3-propanediol (PDO) (Knothe, 2010). This intermediate product is copolymerized with terephthalic acid to produce the polyester used in the manufacture of carpets and textile fibers (Mole! and Philips, 2015), It is expected to analyze to ‘what extent the valorization of biodiesel by-products can foster favors the profitability ofthe production of biodiesel itselé According to FAO and BEFSCI (2011), is important to under- stand how agricultural and liquid biofuel markets could evolve under the current set of macroeconomic conditions and gavern- ‘ment policies. The production of liquid biofuels, and authorizations {or their blending or consumption in other countries, shows a strong correlation between energy markets, mainly oil and agri~ cultural. The prices of food of agricultural origin used to produce liquid biofuels are linked to movements in oil prices and stocks (F20 and BEFSCI, 2011). Similarly, global changes in liquid biofuel po- icies could significantly alter their global production and influence agricultural commodity prices and thus influence local food security Im the Colombian case, the law establishes tax exception for, some cultures, including oil palm, and for the blend biodiesel — diesel, Some of the objectives of that policy are to increase the ‘competitiveness of biofuels production, to generate employment, rural development and society welfare, to promote Colombian biofuel exports, to diversify the sources of energy and to guarantee the environmental sustainability of biofuels implementing sus- tainablity indicators to make decisions related to its supply chain (CONPES and DNP, 2008). “Moreover, biofuel production in Colombia is seen as an oppor tunity to rebuild agricultural sectors depressed by illicit crops, paramilitaries, guerrilla warfare and delinquency (Infante, 2007), There are also concerns related to the distribution, ownership regime, and vocation of soils, in addition to the changes in the agrarian development model, According to (Le0n, 2007) and (Franco and Fiérez, 2009), Colombia has a high rate of land con- centration among 2 few landowners, especially in oil palm plan- tations, There are also structural deficiencies that limit the functioning of the land market (Franco and Florez, 2009), for ‘example, access is restricted for low-income peasants and small ‘entrepreneurs who are interested in investing in new productive developments Violence. drug trafficking and paramilitaries are social phe- rhomena present in rural areas producing raw materials for biofuels in Colombia, which have a notable impact on territorial control, land use and the free functioning of their markets. An important consequence of these phenomena is the lack of legitimacy of rural lands in terms of adjudication, titling and registration (Franco and Flérez, 2009) 3.2 Dynamic hypothesis formulation ‘The research hypothesis of this dynamic model is: The sus- tainability assessment framework is suitable for assessing the sustainability of the biodiesel production, and SD is an appropriate ‘methodological approach. The assessment framework model ‘would provide insights about the effect of biodiesel production in Colombia on the selected sustainability indicators The description of the dynamic behaviour based on the under- lying feedbacks and interactions between selected indicators are shown through the integrated causal loop diagram in Fig. 1. In this diagram, the interrelationships between the indicators linked to the five sustainable dimensions considered in the assessment. The interaction and relationships was identified through three strate- fies: frst, literature review: second, historical data related to the selected indicators; and third, cuttent condition in Colombian context. The integrated causal loop diagram is composed of eight (8) balancing loops and nine (9) reinforcing loop. In Fig. 1, two colors are used in the arrows, the arrow in balancing and rein- forcing loop are in black color, and the arrows in single relation are in grey. A positive feedback loop is also known as a reinforcing loop and itis normally marked with “R". is known a a reinforcing loop because it is an amplifying or enhancing feedback loop. On the ‘ther hand, a negative feedback loop is also known as a balancing Joop and it is normally marked with "B". It is a balancing loop because itis a stabilizing, goal seeking and regulating feedback loop (terman, 2003; Musango and Brent, 2071) Each loop of the causal loop diagram integrated is linked to a sustainability assessment dimension as described following: Loops in the Economic dimension’ BBA: the increment in oil palm price increases biodiesel pro- duction casts, decreasing biodiesel profitability. A decrease in biodiesel profitability reduces biodiesel production, decreasing its sales. Finally, if biodiesel sales diminish, oil palm price di- ‘minishes too, due to the decrease in demand, # Ri: The scenario when glycerol is valorized through 13, Propanediol production (PDO) in Colombia is considered. This is anew technology, still under development, and currently itis, ‘not implemented in Colombia but it is project to build a bio- ppropanediol (1.3 PDO) production plant in Malaysia in 2017, (Bioplastics News, 2014). The global 13-Propanediol market is, ‘estimated to reach USD $621.2 million by 2021, with increment ‘of 10.4% between 2014 and 2021(MM, 2015). PDO isa feedstock ‘employed for manufacture of many chemicals and materials and it has the potential to replace ethylene glycol in PET pro- ‘duction (Posada etal, 2013), This loop shows that if glycerol is, valorized through PDO production. biodiesel profitability will, increase as well as biodiesel production, due increases in glye- rol demand, + RQ: Biodiesel profitability is influenced directly by biodiesel price, production costs and valorization of glycerol by PDO production, and indirectly (in the causal loop) by diesel price. biodiesel production, technological learning and oil palm price. It is observed that an increment in biodiesel production reduces biodiesel production costs due to the scale factor and to the tech- nological learning about the process which indeed depends on biodiesel production. A reduction in biodiesel production costs increases the profit and biodiesel production. Moreover, an incre- ‘ment in diesel price, increases biodiesel price which, and benefits the biodiesel profitability. + B2: An increment in biodiesel production costs reduces the in terest of investors in to develop new projects for biodieselButt et | Joual of Cleaner rducinn 21 (2018) 1-20 Inn ae SEEN & Fergie he we Lf pon 7 7 ‘Efcincy Factor ee 16 aoe pies ial Fig 1. Causal oa aera production plants. In addition, as a consequence of biodiesel Loops in the Social dimension: production capacity will be constant which, in the long time, ‘would reduce biodiese! production. If biodiesel production de- creases, biodiesel sales and oil palm price will decrease too. Finally. if oil palm price diminishes, biodiesel production costs will reduce. + 3: In this research, the social indicator quality of employment in palm cultivation, considers the number of unionized em- ployees, subcontracted employees, direct contract employees, ‘number of accidents, occupational diseases, and child labor inSot aural f Cleaner Prucson 21 (20 palm cultivation, An opposite behaviour is observed for the ef- fect of land for palm cultivation and the quality of employment, If land for palm cultivation increases the quality of employment will reduce, + BA: Relationships have been observed between indirect and direct and use changes, social indicators and oil palm produc- tion. In the oil palm crop regions in Colombia, the increment of oil palm production promotes an increase of lands for oil palm. cultivation. According to different studies, the origin of new lands for oil palm cultivation is, in descending order of area, from agricultural, livestock and forestlands (SID and MME, 2012; Romero et al, 2012; Castanheira etal, 2014) The origin for new lands for livestock is, mainly, from forestlands and, to a lesser extent, from agricultural lands In this way, the increment of lands for palm cultivation has an indirect effect on the reduction of forestlands. + R3: The food security indicator defined as the ratio between agriculture lands and lands for palm cultivation (indicator pro- posed by FAO (2014)), is directly proportional to both variables. + Ré: Agricultural productivity is lower in areas with high political violence, due mainly to disruptions in rural labor markets and in the operation of large farms (Gonzalez and Lopez. 2007), Then, if the political condition of violence diminishes (ie, guerrilla fronts, homicides, kidnappings, and forced population dis. placements) itis possible increasing the productivity of palm oil lands and either increase the lands used for palm cultivation, + R5: Although this cycle is composed of environmental land-use indicators, cis relevant to include icin the relations with social indicators, because it allows us to see the influence of the Population displaced by violence and the poor population on the changes that occur inthe use of land (fr cultivation of palm, livestock, forests). Subsequently, these changes affect the pro- ductivity of sols in palm crops. + RS: The increase in biodiesel production influences rural development and could contribute to reduce the population displaced. This last variable may favor the increase of land for palm cultivation, influencing the RS cycle. In RS, itis observed that increasing the land with palm plantations could lead to an increase in land for livestock crops. These behaviors are observed because livestack production isa traditional economic activity in the north region in Colombia. In addition, an increase in livestock land influences a reduction in forestland. However, it could result in soil los, which ultimately affects the yield of palm crop production. If crop yield decreases this may affect ol palm prodiiction or can be offset by the increase in land for palm cultivation, + R7:Inthe R7 cycle itis proposed to analyze how the reduction of forestlands can reduce biodiversity; considering the influence that, the changes in landscape, flora and fauna have on biodi versity. In addition, in R7 itis desired fo represent that there isa directly proportional relationship in the increase of forestlands and the increase of biodiversity Loops in the Environmental dimension + BS: In Colombia, crop yield in palm cultivation has changed from 41 tons of palm oll per hectare in 1999 to 32 in 2013 (Fedepalma, 2013). Crop yield is affected, among many others aspects, by agricultural practices, the use of agrochemicals and conservation practices on soil and water (Cramer et al, 2007, Silva Lora etal, 2011; DANE, 2012). BS loop shows that an in- crease in palm land requires an increased amount of agro- chemicals because a larger area needs tobe treated, An increase of the amount of agrochemicals used per hectare of land might increase the crop yield as well. An increase in crop yield in palm cultivation would reduce the palm cultivation requirement, ‘which in turn can be decreases, the demand of new lands for palm cultivation RS: Regarding the relations between indirect and direct land use change associated to palm cultivation, mentioned in social, ‘dimension in B4, the reinforcing loop RS shows that an increase in land for palm cultivation promotes a decrease in agricultural land and, indirectly, an increase in livestock land and a decrease of forestlands. 17: The increment in livestock land promotes the decrease in forestlands. If the forestlands are reduced, there will be a reduction in the biodiversity indicator. The biodiversity and, forestland promote soil conservation, thus a decrease in forestland then increase soil loss in palm cultivation. Addition- ally, if soil loss diminishes the crop yield in palm cultivation will, increase (Groom et al, 2008; Galic et al, 2012), Consequently, a decrease in crop yield inereases the demand for land to satisfy ‘the local requirement of palm ail (refer reinforcing loop RS). Bb and B7: In these cycles. the relationships between green- house gas emissions (GHGE) in some stages of the biodiesel life cycle with biodiesel production and the biodiesel-diesel Dlending ratio used in the transport sector are analyzed. The first stage of the biodiesel life cycle considers GHGE by direct ‘changes in land use from savannah to palm land, fom forest to palm land, also the inditect land use change according to tef- ‘erences (based on Winrock data for the US EPA(2010) reported in(Bauen etal, 2010), The second stage, calculate the emissions ‘and the capture or absorption of greenhouse gases during the cultivation of the palm. The third stage was the extraction of ‘palm oil, and finally the fourth stage was biodiesel production, land (ransportation during the supply chain, Emissions in the biodiesel consumption stage were not considered, It is hypoth- sized that the increase in biodiesel production influences the increase in GHGE in the stages of the biodiesel life cycle considered, If such emissions increase, government policies ‘would be discouraged from continuing to increase the biodiesel- diesel blending ratios, a condition that drives the demand for biodiesel, RB: Palm cultivation in Colombia is one of the perennial crops ‘with the highest demand for water, this demand is supplied by the local water supply. In the northern region of Colombia, a large part of the palm crops and biodiesel producing plants are concentrated. The difference between water supply and water ‘demand could have negative values for some periods and, therefore, the index of water scarcity increases. Water deficits for palm cultivation can decrease the yield of palm oil produc- tion (tons of palm cilfha) R9: Ifthe efficiency of biodiese! production increases (tons of, ‘palm oil per tons of biodiesel produced). less palm oil isneeded. (hence less GHGE from its production), and less energy is, needed in the conversion to biodiesel (hence less GHGE from the energy use). ‘Loops in the Technological dimension: BS: Regarding the valorization of glycerol through PDO pro- duction, itis considered that if the mix ratio biodiesel - diesel increase is higher than 12%, the PDO production will be an attractive market for biodiesel producers. This assumption is, based on the reflection conducted in Bioenergy Technology 2030): Roadmap for Colombia (Gonzalez et al, 2004). By including the valorization of glycerol in the technological dimension is intended to underline, the importance on the ‘economic profit of develop alternatives to reuse and manage property biodiesel by-products industryButt et Joa of Cee rducinn 213 (2018) 1-20 7 Within the technological dimension, a promotion factor of second and third generation biodiesel production in Colombia was defined. This factor considers the World production of second andl third generation biodiesel, the number of patents assigned and the ‘number of articles published in scientific journals about biodiesel production of second and third generation (Daim et al, 2005). Balancing loop B8 shows that an increase in the promotion factor increases biodiesel production of second and thitd generation in Colombia, increasing the total biodiesel production. Similarly, an Increase in first-generation biodiesel production increases the total biodiesel production which decreases the unsatisfied demand of biodiesel. Regarding biodiesel production costs analyzed in the economic dimension, they are strongly influenced by technological learning If biodiesel production increases, technological learning will in crease too (Je Wit et al, 2010) Furthermore, there is another kind of technological learning independent of the production quantity and, in this research; it was linked to the quantity of articles pub lished in scientific journals and patents published about first- generation biodiesel production, The effect of technological learning on cost reduction is represented in the balancing loop B2. ‘+ RO: Increments in the efficiency technological factor (tons of palm oil per tons of biodiesel produced) increase biodiesel en- ergy output, and decrease energy input. If energy output in- creases and energy inputs decrease there willbe an increment in, net energy ratio for biodiesel production. According to different, investigations (Zapata et al, 2007; Shahia and Jamal, 2011 Abbaszaadeh et al, 2012; Cadavid et al, 2013), this factor is, defined in the model as a constant. Which affect: the biodiesel energy output. the biodiesel production costs linked ro oil palm. price, land of palm cultivation for biodiesel production and. GHGE in some steps of life cycle of biodiesel Loops in the Political dimension: 6 and B7; Political indicators are the cost linked to biodiesel policy (based on UPME (2014), the mix ratio biodiesel - diese, the biodiesel price and the index of energy diversity of Colombia. important highlight corresponds to the influence of Colombian biodiesel politics (tax reduction, control of biodiesel price, and definition of mix ratio biodiesel-diese!) on biodiesel production cost. Ifthe biodiesel production cost is reduced, the profit of biodiesel production increases, and more incentives to increase biodiesel production and the production capacity of biodiesel enterprises, 3.3, Description of the model boundary Colombian biodiesel production is principally developed in three geographical regions (north, east and central), where most of the land for oil palm cultivation is found. Considering. this geographical restriction, the impact of biodiesel production on sustainability is analyzed in these three regions. An endogenous Indicator is defined in relation if these indicators is directly caused or influenced by any of the other indicator, itis classified as endogenous. I an indicator always acts as a cause and never as an effect. it is considered as exogenous. Endogenous indicator are calculated through equations, while exogenous indicators are defined by the external conditions, and can be represented by constants, time-dependent or graphical functions. The model boundary is established thought ninety-two (92) endogenous in- icators and eighty one (81) exogenous indicators are described in Appendix 1 34, Description ofthe model structure and equations “The dynamic model was divided into six sub-models so that the ‘main relationships generated by the integrated causal loop diagram (Fig. 1) could be made cleater. The sub-models are: biodiesel pro- duction, land and social issues, net energy ratio, water demand, {greenhouse gas emissions savings in biodiesel’s life cycle, and pollutant emissions affecting air quality due to the use of biodiesel - diesel blends as biofuel. Each sub-model and the equations of the selected indicators are described in the subsequent sections and their formal structure of Stock and Flow are shown in Fig. 2€0 Fi. 7 [Numbered hexagons were included in each of these figures; these ‘numbers correspond to the S&F described in Appendix 2, from Tables A to F ‘The endogenous and exogenous indicators used in each equa tion and the equation constants are displayed in Appendix 1. The equations that describe each Stock and Flow S&F are shown in ‘Appencix 2. More precisely, the constants A1 to AS corresponding. to each equation are presented in Table G on Appendix 2, In Colombia, biodiese! production started in 2008, but the ‘model includes the SD fom 1999, Then, the year of the model's initial time (time zero) is 1999 and biodiesel production begins in time eight. 3.4, Biodiesel production sub-model This sub-model is composed of six SAF anditis shown in Fg. 2. ‘The production of first-generation biodiesel (BdPr1G) depends on the biodiesel-diesel blend (MxtBADi) and it will decrease if the biodiesel production cost(BdPrCosts) increases (Eq. (1), Biodiesel production capacity (BdPrCap) is directly proportional to Cost linked to biodiesel policy (CostBdPol) (Eq (2). Profit of first gen eration biodiesel production (ProfitidPr) depends on biodiesel price (BDPrice), glycerol valorization by PDO (PODGIy) and BaPrcosts (Eq. (3)). PODGIy depends on glycerol production (Given), a factor of valorization for PDO (FactorValorizPDO), a technological factor of FDO (TFPDO) and the PDO profitability (PDOprof represented by Eq). Unsatisfied demand of biodiesel ii Colombia (UnsDemandBd) is the difference between the amount of biodiesel consumed in the transport sector in Colombia (WConstransp) and the total biodiesel produced (TotaldPr).The main equations are showin below: however, the full description of equations is developed in Appendix 2. BaPr1G = Al x MxRtBdDi — A2 x BdPrCosts a BarCap = Al x CostBdPol 2) ProfitBdPr = BéPrice BdPrCosts + PODGly 3) PDOGly = GlyPr x FactorValorizPDO x TFPDO x PODprof (4) UnsDemandBd — BdConsTransp — TotalB4Pr 6) 3.42. Net energy ratio sub-model ‘This sub-model is composed of eight S&F and are shown in Fig. 3 and described below. Input energy fertilizers (EnFertlizers) the fertilization requirements for the palm crop were calculated and ‘multiplied by the specific heat corresponding to each element (Eq. (6)-Input energy palm cultivation (EnPalmOilCult) is related to the energy introduced in the palm cultivation stage by fertilizers (EnFertlzers), herbicides (EnHerbicides) and the energy needed to Canty out water irigation (EnlrtWater) (Eq. (7)). Energy palm cil5 Bout ea Jounal ofCeaner eduction 217 (2018) 1-20 gos we —\\ ma . Treeetonae senna | (cS wre Peme tememtne rats Sa 8 a a swamartzane @)[Fnrenern _m Sere Che nsctninne Fig.2. nedese production sub-model, ig. 3. Net energy cai submode extraction (EnPalmOilExtr) consider the energy required as transesterfication, transport (Enfransp) and the energy required to equipment startup (DieselStartup), electricity of external grid (ElectricityGrid) and electricity produced in cogeneration (Elec- tricityPowerPlant), and the steam energy (SteamPowerPlant) (Eq (8)). Energy transesterifcation (EnTransest) was calculated by including the energy required from catalyst, electricity, methanol and steam (Eq, (9). Biodiesel energy input (BdEnInput) isthe sum of the energy inputs in palm oil cultivation, palm oil extraction, treat byproducts that can be exploited such as the kernel and aslycerin (Eq. (10)). Biodiesel energy output (BéEnOutputs) is related to energy generated by biodiesel (EnBd), palm kernel cake (EnPalmistCake), palm kernet oil (EnPalmistOil), soaps, glycerol and shell (Eq. (11). Finally, net energy ratio (NER) was calculated as relation between energy outputs and inputs (Eq, (12).ee Cit te © Butt et | Joual of Cleaner rducinn 21 (2018) 1-20 webct Formatting cat coomin, eee Seen "Vesa etd ‘Land for im Cultlpation / Decrease of Land for Srnha city Amad\inincaiat Bindi Probation ed 30 sotto cals Engel] ‘ete uty get esomeaeninin Cats Triana a Deseo th oy sock read Teck ror Paptaion Last QD ruanentx® enfePe ton ae nn = : a Fig Land and seal sues submade,5 Bout ea | Journal of Ceaner eduction 217 (2018) 1-20 Population infuenced by FLWD —PalmCultvaion depament PWD (Biodiesel Production IG Prwonr tvestoct Lana 4 ‘WaterDenand by fe Biodiesel Production @ Setesbemte Pain Ot Production ‘Water Deanne by Biodiesel Supply Chine PalmOiLExrstion, Land for Palo Calton FAWD Aveinucoced by PalaiCultvation ig. 5. Water sb-mode ‘arorracrtyEetrtet Qa cuune mete Siok reas Wy Dt nea Pan Cai © orton nt ema ‘shtncainaie eee ‘Cte Uin resect nim tabi dang we Intiecyor todd yin neh ore tg snascey rato aa Suecradynasos sot. ok Fan gm ron bt i Per cAvepimatr (@) gygonatty Seg Paden To rewbiasTsa, ‘Spy Can Pager ‘2 Sip Cn Ta ‘ONG Faery Bsc Pettin ‘nt Sipy Cha tet Fig. 6 Swings a CHGE emissions in some steps a bodes Le cy submodelButt et | Joa of Cesner rducinn 2132018) 1-20 " Frston driving CO Emissions Changs Stock €O Emissions by Biodiesel bend Siok of Plltant Emissions that affect at qulty Ba bend Mix Rois Bodset ond Diesel Pollutant Eisions that lfc i quality Ba ben ‘Sock HC Emissions by Biodiesel bend Nottisins of dig ‘ony Dsl Diesel Consumed in Transport Secor Fraction ving HC Bnisions Copy Fraction ving NOX nsisions Change ‘NOx Emission Factor of Diesel Fig Poa emisionssb-model EnFertlizers = Nitrogen. Applied x Nitrogen.Energy + Phosphate.Applied x Phosphate_Energy § Potassium.Energy x Potassium Applied + Magnesium Energy ~ Boron_Energy © EnPalmoilCult = EnFertlizers + EnHlerbicides + EnirrWater o EnPalmOilExtr ~ DieselStartup + ElectricityGrid + ElectricityPowerPlant + SteamPowerPlant @) EnTransest ~ Catalyst.NaOH ) Electricity-trom_grid2 + Methanol + Steam (9) BdEninputs ~ EnPalmoOilCult | EnPalmOilExtr | EnTransest + EnTransp + EnKernelaGlycerin (10) BdEnOutputs — EnBd + EnPalmistCake + EnPalmistOil + EnSoaps + EnGlycerol + Enshell (11) BaEnOutputs NER = “Feninputs 0) 2.4.3, Land and socal issues sub-model ‘This sub-model is composed by ten S&F and they are displayed in Fig. 4. The oll palm production (PalmOilPr) is related to crop yield in palm cultivation and diesel price (Dprice) (Eq. (13). Crop yield in palm cultivation (Cr¥ieldPalm) depends on soil loose and agro- ‘chemical inputs (AgrochemPalm) (Eq. (14)), Variation of lands available for palm cultivation (VarlandP) depend of employment ‘quality, crops vied, biodiesel consumed by the transport sector and the variation of the population displaced by violence (Eq. (15)). Variation of agricultural lands (VarAgrtand) decrease when live- stock growth (Eq, (16)), moreover, pasturelands or livestock lands (Livland) increase if lands for palm cultivation increase and decrease if agricultural land and poor population increase (Eq, 17). Variation of forestlands (VarForLand) diminish if livestock lands increase (Eq, (15)) presenting an indirect land use change from increment of palm cultivation. Employment quality in palm culti- vation (QualémPalm) was calculated considering direct,n Sot aural f Cleaner Prucson 21 (20 ‘employment, unionized conditions. accidents and disease, sub- contracted employment and child labour (Eq, (19) and Table C in ‘Appendix 2). Population displaced by violence (PapDispViol) (Eq (20)) and poor population (PoorPop) Eq, (21) depends on land for palm cultivation PalmoilPr = (AI x Cr¥ieldPalm » A2 x DPrice) (3) rVieldPalm = Al A2 x «SoilLossPalm | A3 x AgrochemPalm aa) VarlandP = ~A1 x cos(QualEmPalm) — A2 x cos(CrYieldPalm) + A3 x cos(BdConsTransp) — Ad x cos(VarPopDispVial) cas) VarAgtland = Al x AgiLand —A2 x LivLand + A3 x LandP. (a8) LivLand = Al — A2 x AgrLand — A3 x PoorPop +A4 x VarLandP an \VarForLand ~ ~A1 + A2 x Forlands ~ A3 x LivLand + A4) » PopPalm cas) QualEmPalm = BetterQEmPalm — DetrimQEmPalm (19) PopDispViol ~ AI ~ A2 x LandP: (20) PoorPop = Al ~ A2 x LandP fern) 34.4. Water demanded sub-model The water demand sub-model is composed of two S&F and itis displayed in Fg, 5. The water demanded by palm cultivation, palm oil extraction, biodiesel production, represents the water demand in the region, influenced by biodiesel supply chain (WatesBdSC) ‘water required for the population, and water needs in livestock lands and agricultural lands (Eq. (22)). Water supply depends on the area influenced by palm cultivation (AreainfPalm) and a water supply factor (FWS), as presented in Eq. (23). The water linked to ecological flow rate (the amount of water that is assumed the ‘minimum required to sustain the areas with natural forest cover- ings) depends on water supply (WaterSup) and an ecological flow factor (FEF) (Eq, (24)), Water scarcity index (Waters is directly ‘proportional ta water demanded and inversely to water supply (Ea (25). WaterBdsC = Water? + WaterPalmOilEx + WaterBdPr + WaterPop + WaterLiv+WaterAgr (22) Watersup = FWS x AreainfiPalm (23) colFl = FEF x Watersup (2a) WaterBds¢ Waters! = TWyatersup — EcoTFT sy 3.45. Savings in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in some steps of Diodiese’ lifecycle sub-model ‘This sub-model is composed of seven S&F: GHGE by oil palm, cultivation and palm oil extraction (GHGP&POE) depends on bio. diesel production (BdPr1), GHGE in oil palm cultivation and palm oil extraction factor (FGHGP&POE) and efficiency of technological factors (tons of palm oll per tons of biodiesel produced. EffFactTecPalmOilBd) (Eq, (25)}- GHGE absorption by palm cult vation (GHGabs) is directly proportional to oil palm cultivation for biodiesel production (LandPyq) and GHG absorption factor (FAGHG) (Eq, (27). Similarly, GHGE by direct change of land use (GHGDLUC) is related to: Land yg, land use change of forest to palm cultivation (LUC), Land use change of grass to palm cultivation (LUC), land use change of mix to palm cultivation (LUCM), Land use change of savannah to palm cultivation (LUCS), land use change ‘of shrub to palm cultivation (LUCSh), land use change of wetland to palm cultivation (LUCW), land use change of barren to palm cult- vation (LUCB) and the corresponding GHGE factors linked to each Jand use change (Eq. (28)). Moreover, GHGE by biodiesel production and transport in the supply chain (GHGBéPraTransp) is directly proportional to GHGE factor in biodiesel production and transport supply chain (GHGFBdPréTransp) and BdPr1G (Eq, (29)). GHGE if Diesel 100% i used in the Colombian transport sector (GHGiDiesel} hias a direct relationship with BdPr1G and GHGE factor in diese’s lifecycle in Colombia (GHGFL.CD) (Eq, (30) The savings percentage fof GHGE as a difference between GHGE if Diesel 100% is used and GHGE in some steps of life cycle of biodiesel (Eq, (31)). The graphical description of savings in GHGE some steps life cycle of biodiesel sub-model S&F is displayed in Fig. 6. GHGP&POE ~ BdPr1G x FGHGP&POE x ElfFactTecPalmOil&sd 26) GHGabs = LandP gg FAGHG en GHGDLUC = Landpag [LUC x GHGFF 4 LUCG x GHGFG + LUCM x GHGFM + LUCS GHGFS + LUCSh % GHGFSh + LUCW « GHGEW + LUCB x GHGFB) (28) GHGBdPravTransp = GHGFBAPraTransp x BdPr1G 29) GHGitDiesel = GHGFLCD « BdPr1G 0) (GHGitDieset — GHGinLCBA) AGHGsaving “CHiDiesel 100 en 3.46, Pollutant emissions by transport sector sub-model This sub-model integrates the reduction ratio of pollutant emission in transport sector when a blend of biodiesel-diesel is implemented, as established by the Environmental Protection ‘Agency (EPA, 2002). EPA (2002) defined the carbon monoxide, particulate matter, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides emissions as 4 graphic function of mix ratio. In this study, the emissions reduc- tion is called fraction driving of emissions change, and it is a function of biodiesel — diesel mix ratio (MxRIBADi). For instance,Butt et Joa of Cee rducinn 213 (2018) 1-20 » Carbon monoxide emissions (COEmissions) (Eq, (32)) depend on diesel consumed in transport sector (DiConsTransp). diese’s CO emission factor (FCODiesel) and the factor driving PM emission change (FDCO), The biodiesel mixed linked to factor driving of carbon monoxide (FDCO) depends on biodiesel — diesel mix ratio (MxReBdDi) (Eq, (33))-The same calculation logic applied in Eq, (32) is applied to the indicators Particulate matter (PMEmission) (Ea. (34), Hydrocarbons (HCEmission), and Nitrogen oxides (NOx- Emission) of biodiesel -diesel blend. The effect of NOx on the air uality is also different compared to the effect of CO, PM and HC. It is a booster of particulate matter, especially fine particles PM 25 Which are the most harmful. [nits reaction with the suns UV light, itis a precursor of tropospheric ozone (03) (WEIO, 2005). The SAF diagrams of this sub-model are displayed in Fig. 7 COEmissions = (FCODiesel x DiConsTransp) + FOCO % ((ECODiesel x DiConsTransp)~1) (32) FDCO = Al — A2 x MxRtBdDi + A3 x MxRtBdDi? (33) PMEmissions = (FPMDiesel x DiConsTransp) + FDPM % ((EPMDiesel x DiConsTransp) ~1) (34) 35, Testing and analysis Three criteria were defined to validate a SD model, The first criterion is the correspondence of structures, the second one is the correspondence of behaviors, and the third one is the correspon- dence of phenomena, To validate the corresponclence of structures, the comprehensive causal diagram was validated through consul: {ation with experts It was developed by personal interviews with five Colombian experts in biodiesel production, wino confirmed the relationships established. The correspondence between behaviors and phenomena are ‘measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which calculates the accuracy of the model's predictions, a MAPE of up to 30% has been defined as valid (Baris, 1989, 1994). To calculate IMAPE, the model was used to simulate behaviors and phenomena. The generated values were compared to the historical values collected between 1999 and 2013, The resulting MAPEs for the most Important indicators modeled are introduced in Table 2. It is ‘observed that they are all below 30%, Then, according to this eri- terion of validation, the causal relationships and equations met the conditions of validation, and the SD model could adequately Trdator Mare 99-2015), gear ands Tao lciese production 16 1508, ‘lotesel producto capac 16 lop ed in pam elation Forestands Palm ol price Bots! ~ eel mic livestock and represent the behaviour of the sustainability assessment of bio- diesel production in Colombia. 4, Results and discussion In this step, the SD model was implemented in Stel software and used to simulate biodiesel production in the Colombian Context, considering baseline conditions. Baseline analysis con- siders that current conditions for biodiesel production, represented by the exogenous indicators, will be the same during the period under analysis (from 2014 to 2030), Therefore, the trends and functions found between 1999 and 2013 will be the same until 2020. The specifications to simulate the system were Length of simulation from 1999 (time 0) to 2030 (time 31), and biodiesel production begins in time eight. The unit of time used was years, ‘and Euler's was applied as an integration method. Simulation re- sults were classified according to each sustainability dimension and are described next. 41, Economic dimension ‘The economic indicators predicted by the SD model (oil palm production, biodiesel production capacity and biodiesel produc tion) are shown in Fig. 8. They follow the same trend of diesel consumed in the transport sector, which will increase during the period of analysis. This trend is expected because biodiesel is blended with diesel and, therefore, if the diesel market grows, so does the biodiesel market. In the same way, oil palm production ‘will increase from 488,000 tin 1999 to 850,000¢ in 2030, a growth, of 42% in thirty years. At the same time, biodiesel production will increase from 520,000 in 2013 to 988,000 in 2030, a growth of ‘90% during the period of analysis. The predicted biodiesel pro- duction capacity will increase and will be higher than biodiesel production until 2017, Then, between 2018 and 2030, they will be equal. Therefore, production capacity will limit biodiesel produc- tion as can be seen in Fi. ‘The estimated biodiesel consumption in the transport sector will increase to 450,000. in 2018 and up to 3,000,000 in 2030, considering that the increase in the biodiesel-diesel blend ratio was predicted to be 0.05 in 2008 and 0.26 in 2030. On the other hand, biodiese! production in 2018 will be 830,000¢ and 988,000 in 2030 (Fig. 8). This difference will lead to an unsatisfied demand of biodiesel in Colombia. The main limitation to increase biodiesel production isthe biodiesel production capacity and the high bio- diesel production costs (Fg. 8), which are greatly influenced by ‘governmental contral and support. 42. Social dimension ‘The social indicators predicted by the SD model (agricultural lands, poor population and land for palm oil cultivation) are shown in Fig 9, These indicators diminished during the period of analysis, ‘Then if ol palm cultivation increases, the displaced population and the poor will decrease. This behaviout can be explained through the increase in oil palm cultivation, which in turn boosts rural employment. Therefore, the oil palm farms will contribute to local economies (Fedesarrollo, 2008). In order to have a better under- standing ofthis phenomenon, it will be necessary to integrate other Indicators to explain that poverty and displacing violence diminishes. Inregard to the land concentration index (Gini) predicted by the SD model, such index variation depends on the changes in pasture lands, oil palm cultivation, ol price, and biodiesel production. Gini index remains between 0.76 and 0.77 over the period of analysis, which indicates high concentration of land ownership and its4 5 Bout ea | Journal of Ceaner eduction 217 (2018) 1-20 1050000" 7 000000 4000000 750000 5500000 00000 2000000 1999 2008 2015 Years 2023 2030 4: Oillpalm Production (ton) 2: Diesel ConsumedinTransport Sector (ton) 3: Biodiesel Production (ton) 4: Biodiesel Production Capacity 36 (ton) ig 8. Fede behaviour of 0 palm procuction, dese nd biodiesel consumption, BF someoo | 3] soo, 1999 2008 5 Estimated biodiesel consumption in transport sector (ton) fer pragucton and eapaty 2015 Years 1: Agricultural lands (ha) 2: Land for Palm oil cultivation (ha) 3: Poor Population (number of people) ig 9. Fede behavior of ager lands, por populitin ae lan or pl al calsvaton, inequitable distribution. A high concentration of land is linked to poverty and to violence-related conditions in the Colombian context (Castiblanco et al, 2015). Regarding the food security in- dicator predicted by the SD model (hectare of agricultural lands per hectare of palm-oil cultivation), it shows an important reduction, from 145 in 1999 to 0.3 in 2030, especially because agricultural lands decreased as well. Agricultural lands decrease was inversely proportional to palm-oil cultivation and pasturelands. However, the effect ofthe latter on agricultural land reduction is greater than the influence of the former. 43, Environmental dimension Environmental indicators related to pollutant emissions that affect ai quality show a slight decrease inthe period of analysis as 2 consequence ofthe use of biodiesel ~ diesel blends as fuel (Fi. 10). This trend is expected because pollutant emissions are influenced by the blend ratio. Itis observed that ithe biodiesel — diesel blend ratio increases, HC. CO and PM emissions will diminish, but NOx ‘emission will rise. The total reduction of pollutant emissions pre- dicted for 2030 is 2%: it adds up to 14.0751, which isa positive butButt et Joa of Caner rducinn 213 (2018) 1-20 6 Sime cy i 1999) 2008 2015 Years 1: Pollutentemission Biodiesel blended ton) 2023 2030 2: PollutantemissionifonlyDeselisused{ton} 3: MixRationBodlesel-dlesel(dlmersionless fraction) ‘i 1, Preicteé behaviour of Pallant emission and Blend Ratio Boiesel ese nota significant impact on air quality. Based on the indicators analyzed in GHGE sub-model, GHGE by irect land-use change are the largest contributor of GHGE in the life cycle of biodiesel, Particularly in this case, due to land use change of forestlands to palm-oil cultivation, Ie is identified that if palm crop yield decreases, andthe efficiency factor (tons of palm oil consumed per tons of biodiesel produced) remains constant, the fraction of savings in GHGE, of the use of the biodiesel blend, pre~ dicted by the SD model will decrease from 0.34 in 2008 to 0.24 in 2030 Fig. 11).Since the fraction of savings is always lower than 0.4, this would mean that biodiesel production in Colombia is now and will be up to 2030 less competitive (RFS2 2010), Regarding the indicator agricultural lands and forestlands, they 1999 2008 2015 ‘will have a similar behaviour and a continuous decrease between 1999 and 2030 (Fig. 8). On the other hand, pastureland and lands available for oil palm will rise in the same period. in the case of agricultural lands, an important change is observed from 2,000,000 ha in 1999 to 260,000 ha in 2030, a reduction of 87% in ‘thirty years. In this SD model, the increase in palm-il cultivation and pasturelands partially explains this behaviour, bu it is impor- tant to conduct further research in order to clarity other factors that influence it ‘The prediction of water demand by anthropic activities in the region influenced by oil palm cultivation and biodiesel production is shown in Fig, 12 and their behaviours are close linked to dy- namics in land use. The predicted water demand by pasturelands or 2030 2030 Years 1GHGE in some steps of biodiesel fe cy (ton) 2:Forestland (ha) Palm eop yield palm ol tan/ha}@:GHGE only ‘lesa used in transport sector fon) 5: Fraction of savingsin GHGE [dmencionlezs fection) ig. Predicted beavou of GHG, acon of savings in GHE,farestand and pal op lle6 5 Bouts ea Jounal of Ceaner eduction 217 (2018) 1-20 1999 2008 2015 2023 2030 Year 1: Water demandin biodiesel supply chain (Mm!) 2: Water scarcity index dimensionless index) 3: Agricultural water demand (Mm) 4: Livestock water demand (Mm") Fig. 12, Prediced behaviour of Wace: demane i bigs! suply han, Water sac index. Agricultural wate: derang, and Livestock water demand, livestock is the largest contributor tothe total demand. In regard to the predicted water scarcity index. it increases in 4% from 1999 to 2030. The scarcity index prediction is limited by the lack of annual data on water supply, ‘The net energy ratio predicted by the SD model, decreases from 48 in 2008 to 29 in 2030 In the SD model, the main indicator influencing NER is palm crop yield, Thus, the energy output follows the same trend as such variable, which will decrease during the period of analysis as shown in Fig. 13. The net energy ratio dim nnution may be due to three situations fis; itis due to an increase in the denominator (Biodiesel energy inputs, BDEnIntputs). second, a decrease in the numerator (Biodiesel energy Outputs, BDE- ‘nOutputs).and thirds, a combined effect of both It should be noted in the Colombian case that. the energy ratio diminution is due to ‘energy input is increased in relation to energy outputs. The energy ‘inputs increase potentially will be influencing economic and envi- ronmental indicator, for example, increased consumption of raw ‘materials would generate an increase in biodiesel production costs, and biodiesel profitability could be diminished. In addition, an in- crease in energy input, for example intensification in Agrochemi- cals use in palm oil cultivation could be influencing the GHGE increment. 44, Political dimension The Colombian government supports the biodiesel sector ‘rough tax exceptions and subsidies. This condition promotes the rise in blend ratio biodieset-diesel, predicted to rise from 0.05 in i of I : cS cs es i i Yer | :Netenergy ratio (dimensionless ratio) 2: Efficiency factor (palm oil ton/biodiesel ton) 3: Palm crop yield (tons of palm’ ba) ig. 1. Ne enegy cto, Elles fcto of pl ote pe ee to, Cop ye in pal cubvation,SB et Joa of Caner rducinn 213 (2018) 1-20 ” 300088 2000000 156000- 1999 2008 |: Mix Ratio Bide 2015 Years 2030 and Diesel (dimensionless rato) 2: Cas inked to biodiesel politic (8) 5, Biodiesel production (on) 2008 to 0.26 in 2030 (displayed in Fig. 14) increasing biodiesel production. Considering the predicted biodiesel profitability is low and biodiesel production costs will increase, the investment in biodiesel production is discouraged, so government support is necessary to promote its production, 45. Technological dimension Technological indicators are related tothe degree of maturity of| first-generation technologies in biodiesel production, They are etermined through the evolution of the number of patents and article in scientific journals about ths technology, the national and international biodiesel production, the technological efficiency factor (palm oil consumed per biodiesel produced), the net energy ratio, the biodiesel profitability and a glycerol profitability, by- product that can potentially be valued through 1,3-PDO. From the analysis of such indicators, itis established the need to techno- logical improvements in Biodiesel production like Palm oil/bio- Giesel ratio. input and output net energy ratio, increase the elfciency of recovery processes and by-products, in particular lycerol and technological improvements in oil palm cultivation. Consequently, the SD model predicts that glycerol valorization through 1,3-PDO is possible from 2016. The profit produced by this valorization can be added to biodiesel profitability. Some techno- logical indicators are shown in Fig. 15. 46. Overall outcome ofthe sustainability of biodiesel production in Colombia The hierarchical sustainability assessment framework of PC&l for biodiesel production proposed in this work has limitations such as: the framework applicability is restricted to renewable energy sources whose raw material is biomass. In addition, for assessing biodiesel production in other specific context. for example in other country, itis necessary to define a new set of indicators for each criterion, and collect new data to set the SD madel to the new context. Regarding to the SD model, it does not consider all the vatiables and conditions to be considered in sustainability assessment, due to the scarcity of data linked to particular in dicators. Then, the SD model provides an appropriate tool to assess the key indicators that enables to identify conditions and oppor- ‘tunities to improve biodiesel production Looking at the above results of baseline scenario, important deficiencies must be addressed in the production of biodiesel in Colombia, so this biofuel can be a sustainable option for the futur. ‘There is no single strategy capable of improving the sustainable biodiesel production. Thus, Colombian government should pro: mote strategies to enhance the benefit of biodiesel sector. The consequence will be, increase biodiesel profitability through improving process efficiency, reduction biodiesel costs, and val: ization of sub-products. Combined strategies such as government support hand in hand ‘with technological developments, food security, quality of employment increment, and reduction of forestland-use change to palm oil production lands, the improve agricultural practice to increment palm crop yield and net energy ratio, and others dis- cussed. Colombian biodiesel policy should promote technological improvement in oil palm cultivation and biodiesel production of first, second and thitd generation, whit special focus on raw ma- terials that do not compete with and used for food production 5. Conclusions ‘Through the application of the SD methodology, a model to assess the sustainability of biodiesel production in Colombia was designed, validated and used to simulate the baseline scenario. It ‘was based on the sustainability assessment framework. which in: cludes principle, criteria and indicators forthe five sustainability dimensions proposed by Bautista et al. (20162) ‘The SD model is defined by five sub-models: biodiesel produc tion, land and social issues, water demand, net energy ratio, savings of greenhouse gas emissions in biodiesel's life cycle and pollutant emissions that affect air quality: Biodiesel blended by diesel. The validation of the model through MAPE test confirms the corre- spondence between structures and phenomena, Simulation of the baseline scenatio provided 2 consistent1" 5 Bouse ea Journal of Ceaner eduction 217 (2018) 1-20 tL ‘ ; — a ans ams 2030 1: Technological efficiency factor (ton pail consumed per ton biodiesel produced) 2: Patents) SE Netenergyrato.: Proftof valorization glycerol rough 900 (S/tonbiclesel) Fig. 1, Prediced behaviour of Net energy a, patents and technaepaleticiency facto: description of future biodiesel production in Colombian context. ‘The results obtained enable the improvements in our under standing of the complex relations within the biodiesel sector, ‘through the sustainable indicators that describe them. ‘The main conclusions ofthe simulation based on baseline con- ditions are related to the economic dimension are: biodiesel pro- ‘duction is limited by production capacity and production costs, so the governmental control and support are necessary, Regarding the Social dimension, oil palm cultivation promotes a decrease in Population displacement; however influence the increase in the inequitable distribution of land ownership and in food insecurity. ‘With respect to the environmental dimension, pollutant emissions that afect air quality show a slight decrease, the fraction of savings in GHGE predicted by SP model will decrease, the agricultural lands will reduce by 87% approximately in thirty years. The predicted ‘water demand by pasturelands isthe largest contributor tothe total ‘demand, the Net energy ratio (NER) predicted by the SD model wil diminish, together with palm crap yield In the relations between politcal and technological dimensions, it can be seen that the biodiesel profitability depends on govern- ‘ment support (eg. tax reduction and blending biodiesel with diesel). Likewise, conditions such as the low profitability of glye- rol, the technological efficiency factor (consumption of palm oil for each biodiesel produced), the decrease in the net energy ratio, and the reduction in the yield of palm crops, require government supports to promote the growth of biodiesel production capacity and the blending of biodiesel with diesel at levels higher than 8-10 Tt should be noted that if biodiesel costs increase, biodiesel profit- ability, net energy ratio, and the fraction of GHGE diminish, itis very important to establish what conditions justify the Colombian government support to the biodiesel sector. ‘Acknowledgements ‘The authors would like to thank the program ECOS No. (13PO1{Evaluation-orientation of the Cooperation Scientific and Uni-versity with Hispanic America), and _COLCIENCIASR- (€08002012(Administrative Department of Science, Technology and Innovationof Colombia) for their support in this research work. Appendix A. 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