Socio-ecological modelling, nexus between cattle production and land use change in Colombia

• Introduction
The complexity of sociecological systems, given their multiple interactions of biotic and abiotic
elements, makes comprehensive studies important for a better understanding and action against them
(Molina and Sánchez, 2017). A tool for understanding it is the implementation of systemic and
dynamic models, such as those obtained with the Systems Dynamics methodology. This work seeks
to model in a rural landscape, the interaction between an agricultural production (Livestock) and the
interrelation with natural areas close to the use of livestock land, since the beef cattle production is
done within a system that includes grazing on large amounts of land per cow (Larson R., 2015),
generando diferentes de cambios de uso del suelo en paisajes rurales.

• Stock and flows diagram.

Loss rate 3
Loss rate 1 Loss rate 2
Loss of cattle in
Loss of calves backgroundig Buying rate
Loss of cattle <Time>
Birth factor
Initial cattle in
finisching
Initial
Initial Calves backgrounding Buying time
Buying cattle
breeding Calves Cattle in backgrounding Cattle in finishing
Growing Maturing

slaughtering
Period in
Growing period backgrounding
Sales in backgrounding period to slaughter
Sale of calves Sales rate 3

Rate of sale 3

Sales rate 1 Sales rate 2

Threshold
cattle
production Total of cattle
Density Beef cattle production

Rate of change
GtoU

Rate of change UtoF

Change of
grasslands for use

Forest area Land use (Cattle Grasslands area

pasture)
Change of use for Change of use for
forest grasslands

RateUtoG
of change
Forest protection Policy Change of forest
for use

Rate of change
FtoUse Land use and natural areas

The cattle needs being fed high-calorie diets for a few months in large populations immediately prior
to slaughter; long gestation and growth periods so that animals are sold for food 2-3 years from the
time they were conceived; and, in most situations, more than two changes of ownership from birth to
being sold for food (Larson R., 2015)
The rural landscape to be represented is located near the Colombian Amazon, a place where there are
forest areas, grassland areas and different land uses. Depending on the economic and social dynamics
of the region, these areas could undergo transformation processes or change of use between them.
Livestock production was divided into three stages: the calves, the heads that are in backgrounding
and finally the heads that reach the final stage o feedlot.
For the interaction of the modules, the density variable that measures the amount of livestock per
hectare of land use has been proposed, in the same way, a livestock production threshold has been
proposed, in order to control the unbridled growth of livestock that it would generate a high degree
of deforestation in natural areas, starting with grasslands and leading to deforestation of forests.
Below are some preliminary simulations and the causal diagram of the problema

Growing Cattle in + Maturing Grasslands area +Grasslands

+ + - +
backgrounding
- change to use
+
- Land use change R2
Calves + to grasslands
+ Total of cattle + Density - + -
+ +
+
Land use
slaughtering + B1 B2 (Pastures) area +
-
Cattle in finishing -
R3
+
R1 Land use change Forest change to use
to forest +
+ - - +
Breeding + Threshold cattle -
Forest area
production

References
Robert (Bob) L. Larson, Chapter 20 - Systems-Thinking and Beef Cattle Production Medicine: Issues of Health and
Production Efficiency, Editor(s): Steven C. Ricke, Janet R. Donaldson, Carol A. Phillips,Food Safety, Academic Press,
(2015), Pages 421-426.

Benavides, Raúl Andrés Molina, and Hugo Sánchez Guerrero. "Sostenibilidad de sistemas ganaderos bovinos de alta
montaña en Colombia." Revista de Investigación Agraria y Ambiental 8.2 (2017): 29-36.