2021-03-25

ENIN 433
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis

Non-traditional Risk Analysis

Golam Kabir, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor
Industrial Systems Engineering
3/25/2021 University of Regina, SK,1 Canada

Bridge Deterioration

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Davis-McDaniel, C., Chowdhury, M., Pang, W., & Dey, K. (2013). Fault-tree model for risk assessment of bridge
failure: Case study for segmental box girder bridges. Journal of infrastructure systems, 19(3), 326-334.

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Davis-McDaniel, C., Chowdhury, M., Pang, W., & Dey, K. (2013). Fault-tree model for risk assessment of bridge
failure: Case study for segmental box girder bridges. Journal of infrastructure systems, 19(3), 326-334.

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Davis-McDaniel, C., Chowdhury, M., Pang, W., & Dey, K. (2013). Fault-tree model for risk assessment of bridge
failure: Case study for segmental box girder bridges. Journal of infrastructure systems, 19(3), 326-334.

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BC Bridges

120
Total No. of Bridges 2743
100

80
No. of Bridges

60

40

20

0
1800
1924
1931
1937
1942
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004

Year of Construction

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Bridge Deterioration

(Ramey and Wright 1997)

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Bridge Deterioration

(Hegazy et al. 2004)

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Bridge Deterioration: traffic volume

(Bolukabsi et al. 2004)

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Bridge Deterioration: highway type

(Bolukabsi et al. 2004)

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Road Deterioration

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Pavement Condition Index

(http://vanderhawk.net/tag/road-pavements/)

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Deterioration Models

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Deterioration Models

Deterioration
Models

Deterministic Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic

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Deterministic Deterioration Model

• Straight-line extrapolation
• Regression models
 Linear regression
 Non-linear regression
 Stepwise regression

• Curve-fitting models
 B-spline approximation
 Constrained least squares

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Stochastic Deterioration Model

• Stochastic models
• Markovian models
 Percentage prediction
 Expected-value method
 Poisson distribution
 Negative-binomial model
 Ordered-probit model
 Random-effects model
 Latent Markov-decision process

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Artificial Intelligence Deterioration Models

• Artificial neural networks

• Case-based reasoning

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Deterministic Deterioration Models

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Deterioration Patterns

9 Linear
Convex
Concave
Condition Rating

0
0 25 50 75

Time (Years)

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Linear Deterioration Model

Bridge Deck Age (t) Service Life (T) Rmax
1 50 100 9
2 75 100 9

Condition
4.5
9
2.25
Linear
Condition Rating

0
0 25 50 75 100

Time (Years)

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Convex Deterioration Model

Bridge Deck Age (t) Service Life (T) Rmax
1 50 100 9
2 75 100 9

Condition
6.75
3.94
9

Convex
Condition Rating

0
0 25 50 75 100
Time (Years)

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Concave Deterioration Model

Bridge Deck Age (t) Service Life (T) Rmax
1 50 100 9
2 75 100 9

Condition
2.25
9 0.56

Concave
Condition Rating

0
0 25 50 75 100

Time (Years)

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Convex-Concave Deterioration Pattern

Bridge Deck Age (t) Service Life (T) Rmax β

1 50 100 9 1.5
2 75 100 9 1.5

Condition
3.65
0.92
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Convex-Concave, Beta= 1.5

Condition Rating

6 Convex-Concave, Beta= 3
Convex-Concave, Beta= 5

0
0 25 50 75 100
Time (Years)

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Concave-Convex Deterioration Pattern

Bridge Deck Age (t) Service Life (T) Rmax β

1 50 100 9 1.5
2 75 100 9 1.5

Condition
5.35
3.58
9 Concave-Convex, Beta= 1.5
Concave-Convex, Beta= 2.5
Concave-Convex, Beta= 3.5
Condition Rating

0 25 50 75 100
Time (Years)

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 Determine the condition curves for the bridge deck (data

uploaded in URCourses) using
• Linear Deterioration Model
• Convex Deterioration Model
• Concave Deterioration Model
• Convex-Concave Deterioration Model for β = 1.5, 2.5,
& 3.5
• Concave-Convex Deterioration Model for β = 1.5, 2.5,
& 3.5

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Rmax = MAX(C2:C494)

T = MAX(B2:B494)

Rlinear = $K$2*(1-(B2/$L$2))

Rconvex = $K$2*(1-(B2/$L$2)^2)

Rconcave = $K$2*((B2/$L$2)-1)^2

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Rconvexcave =$K$2*(1-
((B2/$L$2)^($M$2*(1-(B2/$L$2)))))

Rconcavevex =$K$2*(1-(2*(B2/$L$2))+
((B2/$L$2)^($M$2*(1-(B2/$L$2)))))

=SQRT(AVERAGE(E2:E494))

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Thank You

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