Jurnal Analisis dan Kebijakan Ekonomi

Diajukan untuk memenuhi tugas mata kuliah Ekonomi Moneter

Dosen Pengampu : Muhammad Hartana Iswandi Putra, M.Si

Disusun oleh:
Agung Gumilar (11180840000070)
Masandra Jhoti Vryti A (11190840000018)
Putriani Ashri Rahmah (11190840000021)
M. Abiyyu Mufid (11190840000050)
Putri Amelia Syavarani (11190840000099)

PROGRAM STUDI EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN

FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS
UNIVERSITAS ISLAM NEGERI SYARIF HIDAYATULLAH JAKARTA
2021
 Economic Analysis and Policy 70 (2021) 220–237

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Economic Analysis and Policy

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eap

Survey articles’

The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey

a,∗ b
Rakesh Padhan , K.P. Prabheesh
a
Department of Liberal Arts, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Kandi, Sangareddy, Telangana, 502285, India
b
Department of Liberal Arts, Indian Institute of Hyderabad, Kandi, Sangareddy, Telangana, 502285, India

ar t ic l e inf o a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 24 September 2020
Through a survey of the literature on the economics of the coronavirus (COVID-19)
Received in revised form 6 February 2021 pandemic, this study explores the effects of the pandemic and proposes potential policy
Accepted 20 February 2021 directions to mitigate its effects. Our survey reveals that adverse economic effects have
Available online 25 February 2021 been observed due to the COVID-19 pandemic in addition to fatalities. Furthermore, the
survey indicates the need for greater coordination at national and international levels.
JEL classification: This study concludes by suggesting coordination among monetary, macroprudential, and
E0
fiscal policies (trio) to mitigate the adverse economic effects of COVID-19. Finally, this
E52
E58
study explores potential directions for future research.
H30 © 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights
G18 reserved.

Keywords:
COVID-19
Pandemics
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Macroprudential policy

1. Introduction

1 2
This paper undertakes a survey of literature on the economics of COVID-19 pandemic. The goal is to explore the
economic effects of the COVID-19 and suggest policy directions to mitigate its magnitude.
Clark (2016) opined that a pandemic is a serial killer that can have devastating consequences on humans and the
global economy. For instance, the Spanish flu in 1918 killed 50 million people worldwide. In addition to fatalities, a
pandemic can lead to economic and health crises. Furthermore, a pandemic can result in socio-psychological
disturbances to the society wherein the poor witness the burden of the crisis more than their richer counterparts. The
effects of a pandemic remain uncertain owing to the lack of a predictive pattern of its occurrence, particularly in the
absence of a pharmaceutical invention.
Our study is motivated by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its multifaceted effects on the economies worldwide.
At the beginning of December 2019, Wuhan City, China, witnessed the origin of the novel ‘‘coronavirus’’ (COVID-19
hereafter) at first. The COVID-19 is a highly transmittable and pathogenic viral infection. On March 11. 2020, the World

∗ Correspondence to: Department of Liberal Arts, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
E-mail addresses: la14m15p100002@iith.ac.in, rakeshpadhan230@gmail.com (R. Padhan), prabheesh@la.iith.ac.in (K.P. Prabheesh).
1 The short from COVID-19 is used for the Coronavirus disease of 2019, throughout the paper.
2 The word pandemic is derived from the Greek word ‘‘Pandemos’’, which means ‘common to all people’. The World Health Organization affirm
that a pandemic is a situation of the global spread of a new disease. Cholera in 1817, Spanish flu in 1918, Asian flu in 1957, and the H1N1 pandemic
in 2009 are the few examples of pandemic events that the world has already witnessed earlier.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.02.012
0313-5926/© 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
R. Padhan and K.P. Prabheesh Economic Analysis and Policy 70 (2021) 220–237

Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 as a global outbreak of pandemic on March 11, 2020. The COVID-19 is
considered to be a ‘‘once-in-a-century pathogen’’ owing to the following reasons. First, the fatality risk associated with
the COVID-19 is 1%, which is more miserable than that of typical influenza, as it can kill healthy as well as elderly
people. This fatality risk can be compared with that of the 1857 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and of the 1918 Spanish flu
(2%). However, the actual fatality rate of the COVID-19 remains unpredictable, owing to the absence of pharmaceutical
inventions. Second, the exponential rate of transmission of this disease indicates that the COVID-19 will be much more
severe than any other pandemic.
The economic effects of the COVID-19 can be broadly categorized into supply and demand effects. Supply effects
result from the loss of working hours, and the decline in aggregate demand results from the decline in income due to
unemployment associated with lockdowns. Maliszewska et al. (2020) claimed that the pandemic affects the economy
through the following channels: (1) the direct effect of a reduction in employment; (2) the increase in international
transaction costs; (3) the sharp decline in travel, and (4) the decline in demand for services requiring proximity between
people. First, reduction in employment leads to lower demand for capital, thereby resulting in output loss. Second, the
rising costs of imports and exports for goods and services result in trade reduction and productivity loss. Third, the
sharp decline in international tourism generates less revenue, thereby leading to production loss. Finally, the decline in
demand by households, who purchase fewer services than before, considerably decreases the consumption of goods
and services. In addition, the contraction in foreign direct investment, real effects of financial shocks, and falling oil
prices widen the economic costs associated with the COVID-19. In this context, several questions arise: (1) What are the
detrimental effects of COVID-19 pandemic? (2) What are the policy decision to be adopted for mitigating its effects?
Our approach in this study is as follows. First, we focus on the effects of the COVID-19 the world has experienced
until now. Second, we extend the work of Maliszewska et al. (2020) to include the stock market, exchange rate, and oil
market as the channels of economic consequences. Third, we emphasize four policy aspects in response to the COVID-
19: monetary policy, macroprudential regulation, fiscal policy, and policy coordination. Finally, we establish a research
agenda for future research.
Accordingly, we followed several steps: (1) we identified several literatures on pandemic and the COVID-19, thereby
acquiring 80 papers. These papers were obtained from the Journal of Economic History, Applied Economic Letters, Asian
Eco- nomic Letters, Economic Analysis and Policy, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Energy Economics, Energy Research
Letters, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, and Finance Research Letters . Furthermore, we acquired 11 working
papers from International Monetary Fund (IMF), National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR, Bank for International
Settlements, and World Bank; content from the IMF blog; 3 books (IT Governance Publishing and VOX EU.); and 5
chapters and reports from the World Economic Outlook, Banks for International Settlements, and European Commission . This
filter technique is attributed to the history and consequences of pandemics, including the COVID-19. Considering that
the literature on the COVID-19 pandemic is evolving, we incorporated most papers published on or before December
10, 2020. These papers and journals were selected based on their relevance to the research questions of this paper.
Further, this study encompasses different facets of economies and demonstrates the effects of the COVID-19 through a
comparative analysis of the COVID-19 with earlier pandemics in terms of the number of fatalities. Accordingly, we
selected ten economies with the highest number of cases until September 17, 2020, and indicated stock market indicators
and exchange rate performance in the pre-COVID and the COVID-19 periods. (3) We emphasized four policies in
response to COVID-19: monetary policy, macro prudential regulation, fiscal policy, and policy coordination. Finally, we
identified the limitations of existing studies and created an agenda for future research.
This study contributes to the literature in many ways. First, this study is one of the first attempts to document
the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, this study extends the work of Maliszewska et al. (2020) by
incorporating the effects of the COVID-19 on the stock market, exchange rate, and oil market. Third, this study is the
first attempt to propose a comprehensive policy direction in response to the COVID-19 by emphasizing policy
coordination. Finally, our study is in line with Goodell (2020), who conducted a comprehensive literature survey and
highlighted unprecedented global economic loss due to the COVID-19.
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the effects of the COVID-19. Sections 3 and 4 indicate the
effects of the COVID-19 on the stock market and exchange rate, respectively. Section 5 covers the effects of the
pandemic on the oil market. Section 6 proposes policy suggestions. Section 7 highlights the limitations of the existing
literature and offers future research directions. Finally, Section 8 concludes the study and suggests policy implications.

2. Effects of the COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented decline in global activity. The intensifying pandemic
in developed and emerging economies led to stringent lockdowns and large disruptions in economic activity at an
extraordinary speed and scale (Baldwin and di Mauro, 2020; Gopinath, 2020). For instance, the global GDP declined by
more than 4.9% in the second quarter of 2020 due to economic disruption. The decline in trade in goods and services
was likely higher than that during the 2007–08 global financial crisis (IMF, 2020). Consequently, the global trade
contracted by 3.5% in the second quarter of 2020 due to weak demand and supply. The subsequent lockdown across
economies due to the COVID-19 disrupted global supply chains, reducing the aggregate demand (Vidya and
Prabheesh, 2020). The consumption of goods and services witnessed a marked decline due to steep income loss and
weak consumer confidence.

22
Similarly, the consumers were reluctant to consume certain goods and services due to the fear of the COVID contagion
(Eichenbaum et al., 2020). Firms were required to cut back the investment due to a precipitous decline in demand,
supply interruptions, and uncertain future earnings. The world lost nearly 300 million full-time jobs in the second
quarter of 2020 from 130 full-time job losses in the first quarter of 2020 (IMF, 2020). The decline in aggregate demand
resulted in lower inflation and fuel prices (IMF, 2020). The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) estimated a 25%
decline in global travel in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The emerging economies experienced significant capital outflows owing to the pandemic, thereby reducing
investment and causing production loss (BIS, 2019). During the COVID-19 period, Russia–Saudi Arabia oil war reduced
the value of oil prices from $ 31.05 per barrel on March 8, 2020, to $ 19.23 per barrel on April 30, 2020. Similarly, stock
markets worldwide started crashing from February 25th. For instance, Wall Street witnessed a large single-day drop in
the stock price in the second week of March 2020 due to a lack of investor confidence after the US’s travel ban
declaration and unchanged interest rate by the European central bank. Conclusively, the ongoing pandemic has
adversely affected the global economy; these consequences may be more severe in the future considering the
increasing fatalities.

2.1. A synthesis of empirical literature on the COVID-19

Existing literature on the effects of COVID-19 has emphasized various issues. For instance, Barro et al. (2020), Choi
(2020), Iyke (2020c), Jorda et al. (2020), and Liu et al. (2020b) observed output and credit contraction due to the COVID-
19. Liu et al. (2020c), Maliszewska et al. (2020), and Yu et al. (2020) demonstrated a decline in consumption and
investment. Ertugrul et al. (2020) indicated an increase in consumption volatility. Bauer and Weber (2020) confirmed a
decline in the labor force participation rate. Furthermore, the COVID-19 negatively affected firm and industry
performances (Gu et al., 2020; He et al., 2020a,b; Iyke, 2020a; Qin et al., 2020a; Xiong et al., 2020). In addition, the
COVID-19 adversely affected corporate performance (Shen et al., 2020), the insurance market (Wang et al., 2020),
3
herding behavior (Espinosa-Méndez and Arias, 2020), and property price (Wang et al., 2020).
Table 1 presents the details of the empirical literature on the effects of the COVID-19.

3. COVID-19 and stock market

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has increased global financial risks, thereby adversely affecting the global
financial markets (Al-Awadhi et al., 2020; Baker et al., 2020; Cao et al., 2020; Gil-Alana and Claudio-Quiroga, 2020;
Gormsen and Koijen, 2020; Harjoto et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020a; Phan and Narayan, 2020). The COVID-19 negatively
affected the stock market in the forms of uncertainty and reduction in stock return worldwide, thereby reducing capital
flows. This reduction due to stock market uncertainty, eventually created obstacles in investment, project funding, and
liquidity availability in the global financial system.
Empirical evidence suggests that the pandemic negatively affected stock market return (Al-Awadhi et al., 2020; Ambros
et al., 2020; Mishra et al., 2020; Topcu and Gulal, 2020)) and increased stock return volatility (Corbet et al., 2020; Haroon
and Rizvi, 2020a,b; Sharma, 2020; Zaremba et al., 2020). Akhtaruzzaman et al. (2020) and Corbet et al. (2020) confirmed
4
the stronger role of financial contagion in generating stock return volatility. Goodell (2020) affirmed that the decline in
the stock market during the pandemic resulted from investors’ delay in investment decisions.
5
Fig. 1 exhibits the trends in the stock market of the top 10 economies affected by the pandemic. In the figure, a
6
drastic decline can be observed during March. Colombia and Spain experienced the highest decline. Furthermore, the
experience of recovery of the stock market varies across these countries. For instance, the stock markets in Argentina,
South Africa, and the US recovered within two months and reached the pre-crisis level at the end of May. The
remaining seven countries have still not recovered from the negative effects of the pandemic. Clearly, these
observations indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected stock market performance.

3 It cannot be generalized that the COVID-19 has only adverse repercussions. For instance, Ming et al. (2020) indicated that the COVID-19
pandemic has improved air quality, which can be helpful for improving GDP later. Appiah-Otoo (2020) indicated that the COVID-19 positively affected
domestic credit. A p e r g i s a n d A p e r g i s (2020b) supported the positive effects on inflation expectations. Differently, S a l i s u a n d A k a n ni (2020)
constructed a global fear index and indicated its significance in predicting stock returns and improving forecast performance. As a mitigating force,
lockdowns, travel restrictions, and economic stimulus package positively affected the stock market in G7 countries (Narayan, 2020b). In case of forex
market, Narayan et al. (2020) affirmed the depreciation leads to fall in Japanese stock returns. Narayan (2020b) confirmed that Yen had a
transitory effect and that the COVID-19 changed the resistance of the yen to shocks. Salisu and Sikiru (2020) supported the hedging potential of
Asia-Pacific Islamic stocks, whereas Ferriani and Natoli (2020) confirmed investors’ preference for low ESG risk funds. Further, Mariana et al.
(2020) and Mnif et al. (2020) supported the efficiency of cryptocurrency as a safe haven. Erdem (2020) affirmed that freer countries are associated
with smaller increase in volatility. In the context of the capital market, Prabheesh (2020) confirmed that foreign portfolio investment improved the
predictability of stock market returns. Chen et al. (2020b) confirmed the positive effect on remittance inflows. In case of government decision, Haldar
and Sethi (2020) indicated that demographic and government policies significantly determine the COVID-19. Further, see Sha and Sharma (2020)
for more details.
4 C h e n e t a l . (2020a), C o n l o n a n d M c G e e (2020), and G r o b y s (2020) confirmed that Bitcoin is no longer a safe haven during this pandemic
period,
indicating a significant fall in portfolio diversification.
 5 The top 10 economies were selected based on the no. of confirmed cases until September 17th, 2020. Further, 6 out of 10 selected economies
are also ranked in terms of fatalities. See Appendices A and B for more details.
6 Stock markets witnessed (global stock market crash) Black Monday on March 9, 2020.
 R.
Pa
dh
Table 1 an
Empirical literature on the effects of COVID-19 an
Source: Author’s compilation d
K.
Authors Objective Countries and sample period Methodology Empirical findings Channel/remarks
P.
Fu and Shen (2020) Corporate performance in the China Difference in Difference Negative Goodwill impairment Pr
energy sector. 2014–2020 Modeling, ab
Parallel Trend Test hee
Apergis and Apergis (2020a) US partisan conflict index US 21/01/2020– MIDAS Mitigate political polarization US political environment
30/04/2020
Liu et al. (2020a) Crude oil return and stock US 21/01/2020– Time-varying VAR Negative Unaltered economic
return relation 06/05/2020 performance
Prabheesh et al. (2020a) Stock market and oil price Net oil-importing 01/01/2020– Summary Statistics Positive Signal for future demand
return relation 08/06/2020 DCC-GARCH contraction
Prabheesh et al. (2020b) Stock market and oil price Net oil-exporting 01/01/2020– DCC-GARCH Positive Restricted portfolio
return relation 10/08/2020 Perron Test diversification
Qin et al. (2020a) Pandemic and oil price relation Global 1996Q1– Granger Causality Inconsistent intertemporal Oil price cannot be ignored
2020Q1 Parameter Stability CAPM
Narayan (2020a) Oil price news on oil price Global 02/01/1995– Narayan–Popp Test Bigger effect on oil price Negative oil price news
05/05/2020 Threshold Regression dominates
Gil-Alana and Monge (2020) Crude oil price Global 04/03/2010– Fractional Integration Inefficient market Transitory shock
22 04/05/2020
3 Devpura and Narayan (2020) Oil price volatility evolution Global 01/07/2019– Narayan–Popp Test Positive Cases and death contributes
12/06/2020 OLS
Huang and Zheng (2020) Change in investor sentiment Global 02/01/2019– Gregory and Hansen Structural change Change in crude oil price
and crude oil futures 11/05/2020 cointegration elasticity
Polemis and Soursou (2020) Impact on Greek energy firms Greece 02/12/2019– Event Study Influenced the returns of Market efficiency hypothesis
02/07/2020 MEARM majority of the listed firms
MARM Model
Iyke (2020a) Reaction of oil and gas US 21/01/2020– EGARCH Heterogeneous reaction Firm specific attributes
producer 05/05/2020
Ec
Devpura (2020) Relationship between Japanese Japan Descriptive Statistics Limited evidence that oil prices No time-varying predictability on
Yen and crude oil price futures Hourly data Predictive Regression predict the Yen om
01/07/2019–04/09/2020 ic
Iyke (2020b) Exchange rate return and 25 Countries 31/12/2019– Summary Statistics Better predictive power over Disease outbreak channel An
volatility prediction 08/05/2020 GARCH volatility aly
sis
Garg and Prabheesh (2021) Nexus between exchange rate BRIICS 31/01/2020– Toda–Yamamoto Causality Test Improve predictability of Forward looking investors
and interest rate 30/06/2020 exchange rate an
d
Salisu and Adediran (2020) Predicting energy market Global OLS Market uncertainty good Portfolio diversification
Po
volatility 21/03/2011–06/04/2020 GARCH predictor
lic
y
(continued on next page)
70
(2
02
1)
22
0–

Table 1 (continued).
Authors
Ali et al. (2020)
Narayan (2020b)
Narayan (2020c)
Narayan et al. (2020)
Rai and Garg (2021)
Narayan et al. (2021)
Haroon and Rizvi (2020a)
Haroon and Rizvi (2020b)
22
Al-Awadi et al. (2020)
4
Gil-Alana and Claudio-Quiroga
(2020)
Topcu and Gulal (2020)
Ambros et al. (2020)
Cao et al. (2020)
Ferriani and Natoli (2020)
Sharma (2020)
Akhtaruzzaman et al. (2020)
R.
Pa
dh
an
Objective Countries and sample period Methodology Empirical findings Channel/remarks an
Reaction of financial market 9 countries EGARCH Global market free fall Global spread of volatility d
01/01/2020–30/03/2020 Bivariate Regression K.
P.
Impact on exchange rate Japan Time-varying NarayanPopp Resistance of Yen to shocks Transitory effect
Pr
persistence to shocks 01/07/2019–04/09/2020 Unit root Test has changed
ab
OLS
hee
Bubble type behavior of Japan, Canada, Europe and Bubble test Increased in bubble activity Market become relatively
exchange rate Britain Generalized Sup Augmented inefficient
July 2019–September 2020 ADF
Japanese yen and stock return Japan Narayan–Popp Unit root Test Depreciation leads to gain in Stronger relationship
relation 04/01/2010–16/08/2020 VAR Japanese stock returns
GARCH-M
Relationship between stock BRIICS DCC-GARCH Relationship strengthened Significant risk transfer
prices and exchange rate 02/01/2020–15/09/2020 BEKK-GARCH
Effect of government response G7 ARCH Positive Lockdowns most effective
to stocks 01/07/2019–16/04/2020 Regression
Sentiment generation and World and US Asymmetric GARCH Panic news generate volatility Panic news contribute to
equity volatility 01/01/2020–30/04/2020 volatility
Equity market, a real human 23 Emerging GARCH Decreasing cases, Flatter curve reduce
costs and government response 01/01/2020–30/04/2020 Panel Regression Improve liquidity uncertainty
Stock market outcomes China Panel Regression Significant impact of rising Negative effect on stock
10/01/2020–16/03/2020 cases and death returns
Impact on Asian Stock markets Asia Fractal Integration Transitory effect on Japan and Temporary and Permanent
July 2006–September 2020 permanent effect on China and shocks
Korea
Impact on emerging stock 26 Emerging Pooled OLS Negative impact and began to Higherst in emerging Asia and
markets 10/03/2020–30/04/2020 Driscoll–Kraay estimator taper off by mid-April lowest in emerging Europe
Impact of COVID-19 news on 8 US, Asia and Europe Descriptive Statistics Do not find sensitiveness of Strong positive impact on the
stock markets 01/01/2020–31/03/2020 CAPM stock returns to news stock market volatility
OLS Ec
Document the stock market 14 stock index 21/01/2020– Regression Stock market elasticity is Do not panic message on
index’s negative response 30/06/2020 −0.028 om
ic
Analyzes the ESG risks World Pooled Regression Investors preferred low ESG Low ESG positively affect flows
An
20/01/2020–01/05/2020 risks funds
aly
Commonality in Volatility 5 Asian Economies Descriptive Statistics More prominent in case of Stronger commonality sis
01/01/2019–25/09/2020 ADF Test Singapore an
GARCH d
Occurrence of financial World, China and G7 VERMA DCC-GARCH Increase in stock return Higher role of financial Po
contagion 01/01/2013–20/03/2020 Diebold and Yilmaz correlation contagion lic
y
(continued on next page) 70
(2
02
1)
22
0–

Table 1 (continued).
Authors Objective
Zhang et al. (2020) Mapping risks
Policy interventions
Zaremba et al. (2020) Government intervention and
Stock return volatility
Harjoto et al. (2020) Stock market reaction to the
WHO and Federal Reserve
announcement
Salisu and Sikiru (2020) Hedging potential of
Asia-Pacific Islamic stocks
Conlon and McGee (2020) Bitcoin as safe heaven or risky
heaven
Chen et al. (2020a) Fear sentiment on Bitcoin
dynamics
Grobys (2020) Bitcoin’s performance to hedge
equity risk
Mariana et al. (2020) Testing Bitcoin and Ethereum
as safe heaven
Mnif et al. (2020) Cryptocurrency as hedging
22 Corbet et al. (2020) Contagion effect on stock
5 market
Espinosa-Méndez and Arias Effect on herding behavior in
(2020) the stock market
He et al. (2020a) Compilation of accounting
index
He et al. (2020b) Market performance of
industries
Salisu and Akanni (2020) Construct global fear index &
predictability
Phan and Narayan (2020) Stock market reaction to real
time
Qin et al. (2020a) Firm level cash holdings
Mishra et al. (2020) Indian financial markets
Yue et al. (2020) Household investment decision
R.
Pa
Countries and sample period Methodology Empirical findings Channel/remarks dh
an
Global Correlation Substantial increase in market Need of global policy
an
22/01/2020–27/03/2020 Minimum Spanning Tree risks coordination
d
67 Countries Summary Statistics Non-pharmaceutical Role of information campaign K.
01/01/2020–03/04/2020 Regression interventions increase volatility and public event cancellation P.
Developed and emerging Event Study Approach Negative shock to global stock More shock to emerging Pr
Daily markets markets and small firms ab
13/03/2019–23/04/2020 hee
15 Countries GARCH based Unit root Test Low hedging effectiveness Role of global factor
31/08/2020–15/09/2020 UPE based model
Global Value at Risk Do not act as safe heaven Bitcoin with S&P500
July 2010–March 2020 downward risk
Global VAR Fear sentiment exacerbates Bitcoins fails as safe heaven
15/01/2020–24/04/2020 Granger Causality
Global Dynamic correlation Bitcoin performed poorly in Unpredictable and uncertain
19/03/2015–18/03/2020 hedging the tail risk dynamic correlation
Global DCC Negative effect with stock Ethereum as better safe heaven
01/07/2019–06/04/2020 cDCC return and support safe heaven than bitcoin
OLS Regression
Global MFDFA Positive impact on efficiency Cryptocurrency become more
31/12-2019-19/05/2020 General Hurst Exponent efficient
China Dynamic Correlation Volatility relationship evolve Development of a new product
11/03/2019–10/03/2020 GARCH significantly
Australia Cross-section absolute COVID-19 increases the Manifestation of herding
10/06/2008–19/06/2020 deviation model herding behavior behavior during crisis
China Big Data Portrait Analysis Industries significantly affected Service sector significantly
01/01/2019–31/03/2020 except basic industry affected
China Event Study Approach Transportation, mining, Manufacturing, IT, Education
03/06/2019–13/03/2020 electricity, hearting and and Health Care remains less
environment affected affected
OECD & BRICS Descriptive Statistics Good predictor of performance Improve forecast performance Ec
11/03/2020–30/04/2020 Scenario Analysis on
25 Countries Event Analysis Market overreacts to No uniformity in travel ban om
11/03/2020–30/04/2020 unexpected news ic
China Difference in Difference Positive impact for serious Rising firms’ cash holdings An
Q1: 2014–2020 Method impact industries aly
Parallel Trend Test sis
an
India Markov-Switching VAR Negative Severe than demonization and
d
03/01/2003–20/04/2020 GST
Po
China Linear Probability Household with infected loss Household financial decision lic
China Household Finance Probit Model confidence and change in y
Survey investment 70
(2
(continued on next page)
02
1)
22
0–
 R.
Pa
dh
an
an
d
K.
Table 1 (continued). P.
Pr
Authors Objective Countries and sample period Methodology Empirical findings Channel/remarks
ab
Gu et al. (2020) Economic activity China Difference in Difference Manufacturing industries Smaller firms experience more hee
01/12/2019–31/01/2020 Method highest negative effect 30% decline
Descriptive Statistics
Choi (2020) Impact of economic uncertainty US Wavelet Coherence Analysis Affects the sectoral volatility More affect than global
January 2008–May 2020 more than global financial financial crisis
crisis
Shen et al. (2020) Corporate performance China Propensity Score Matching Negative Association between pandemic
Q1: 2014–2020 Regression and firm performance
Yu et al. (2020) Labor force participation 134 Countries Regression Negative High uncertainty avoidance
1970–2015 Impulse Response index
Xiong et al. (2020) Market reaction China Event Study More intense effect on Effect depends on the financial
23/01/2020–30/04/2020 Correlation industries with vulnerability to structure of industries
virus and high institutional
investors
Erdem (2020) Investor’s reaction to different 75 Countries Descriptive Statistics Negative impact on stock Depends on level of freedom
22 date announcement 20/01/2020–30/04/2020 Panel Regression returns.
6 Freeer countries experience
smaller volatility
Wang et al. (2020) Insurance Market China, 29 Provinces Panel Regression Negative Importance of level of social
Q1: 2018–2020 Mean Variance Test security and personal insurance
Vidya and Prabheesh (2020) Trade connectedness and 15 Countries Trade Network Analysis Drastic reduction Decline in trade until
future trade forecast 2016Q4–2020Q1 Artificial Neural Network Change in structure of trade December 2020
China’s trade as center
unaltered
Liu et al. (2020b) Macro-financial variables and China Time–Frequency Analysis Business and financial cycle in Extraordinary macroeconomic
Ec
its resilience 1993Q1–2020Q1 Wavelet Analysis contraction phase policies needed
on
Liu et al. (2020c) Household consumption China Summary Statistics Significant decline in Rural households less affected om
China Household Finance GARCH household consumption
ic
Survey An
Ertugrul et al. (2020) Effect on Turkish diesel Turkey GARCH Type Models High volatility pattern Dynamic volatility over time aly
consumption volatility 01/01/2014–15/06/2020 sis
an
(continued on next page) d
Po
lic
y
70
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02
1)
22
0–
 R.
Pa
dh
an
an
d
K.
P.
Pr
ab
hee

Table 1 (continued).
Authors Objective
Iyke (2020c) Impact on economic policy
uncertainty
Haldar and Sethi (2020) Effect of demographic,
socio-economic and public
response
Prabheesh (2020) Stock returns and portfolio
flows causality
Chen et al. (2020b) Impact on remittance inflows
to Samoa
22
7
Appiah-Otoo (2020) Impact on domestic credit
Bauer and Weber (2020) Evaluates short-term labor
market impact of COVID-19
containment
Apergis and Apergis (2020b) Role in the course of inflation
expectations and their
volatility
This table covers various empirical issues addressed in the context of the COVID-19 with the authors, data coverage, empirical findings, and channels/remarks. Further, it covers the tabulation of all
cited papers on the empirical literature on the COVID-19.
Countries and sample period Methodology Empirical findings Channel/remarks
5 Countries Regression Analysis Positive impact on economic Higher policy uncertainty
1990M01–2020M09 policy uncertainty
31/12/2019–01/09/2020
10 Countries Negative Binomial Regression Demographic and government Implementation of periodic
15/03/2020–30/09/2020 policies are significant lockdown
determinant
India Narayan–Popp Unit root Test Unidirectional causality from More exposure to portfolio
02/01/2019–30/09/2020 Toda–Yamamoto Causality Test portfolio flows to stock returns flows volatility
Samoa Narayan–Popp Unit root test Increased remittance from Declined from US
2012M05–2020M07 Gregory–Hansen Cointegration Australia and New Zealand
and VECM
China Descriptive Statistics Increase in confirmed Positive response in both
January 1, 2020–June 30, 2020 Regression case/death increase domestic long-run and short-run
Impulse Response Function credit
Germany Diff-in-diff Regression 60% increase from employment Shut down increased
13/03/2020–14/04/2020 into unemployment unemployment of 117,000
person
US GARCHX Positive effect on inflation Risk of inflation expectation
02/01/2019–31/07/2020 expectation and volatility
Ec
on
om
ic
An
aly
sis
an
d
Po
lic
y
70
(2
02
1)
22
0–
R. Padhan and K.P. Prabheesh Economic Analysis and Policy 70 (2021) 220–237

Fig. 1. Stock indices of most affected countries.

This figure indicates the plots of stock indices of the most affected countries during the COVID-19. It covers stock indices for Argentina, Brazil,
Colombia, India, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Spain, and the USA. The blue line indicates the data period’s division into two such as pre and
during the COVID-19 period. We can observe that the stock indices experience high volatility during the COVID-19 period. The period spans from
January 1, 2019, to September 17, 2020. The stock data are collected from the CEIC Database. (For interpretation of the references to color in this
figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

4. COVID-19 and exchange rate

The exchange rate is crucial for maintaining an economy’s external stability. As exchange rate directly associates
with trade balance, export competitiveness, foreign debt, and capital flows, maintaining a stable exchange rate is one of
the policymakers’ major concerns. During this pandemic period, most economies have experienced exchange rate
volatility and currency depreciation due to capital outflows and market sentiments. For instance, the negative

22
R. Padhan and K.P. Prabheesh Economic Analysis and Policy 70 (2021) 220–237

sentiments associated

22
 Fig. 1. (continued).

with the COVID-19 substantially affected the financial markets (Ali et al., 2020; Fang and Zhang, 2020; Fu and Shen,
2020; Narayan, 2020c; Garg and Prabheesh, 2021; Rai and Garg, 2021) and had a better predictive power over exchange
rate volatility than return (Iyke, 2020b). Iyke (2020b) affirmed that the outbreak of the COVID-19 is associated with
valuable information and can be effectively used to predict exchange rate return and volatility. The volatile exchange
rate and currency depreciation could have detrimental effects on stock price, capital inflow, current account deficit,
external debt obligations, and financial instability.
Fig. 2 illustrates excessive volatility in the exchange rate of most countries affected by the pandemic. All economies
experienced a currency depreciation immediately after the outbreak of the COVID-19 until mid-April. Thereafter, most
economies’ exchange rates significantly improved, excluding that of Argentina. More specifically, Spain witnessed a
tremendous recovery in its exchange rate after mid-May. However, the figure depicts that none of these countries’
exchange rates reached their pre-crisis level by the end of September, implying the pandemic’s adverse effects on the
exchange rates of the economies.

5. COVID-19 and oil price

Negative supply and demand shocks can be observed in the oil market during the COVID-19 period. The reduction in
labor availability, travel restrictions, and disruptions in transport and business, directly and indirectly, resulted in negative
supply shocks. The negative demand shock is caused due to economic difficulties, and the disruption of global value
chains, reducing oil demand (Vidya and Prabheesh, 2020). These negative shocks on the oil are considered to reduce
global consumption and investment.
Numerous studies have addressed the effects of the COVID-19 on the oil price. For instance, the decline in oil price
due to the pandemic adversely affected the performance of the energy sector (Apergis and Apergis, 2020a; Devpura,
2020; Devpura and Narayan, 2020; Fu and Shen, 2020; Gil-Alana and Monge, 2020; Huang and Zheng, 2020; Kartal,
2020; Narayan, 2020a; Polemis and Soursou, 2020; Qin et al., 2020b). Fu and Shen (2020) affirmed that COVID-19
negatively affected energy industries. Salisu and Adediran (2020) observed that market uncertainty can predict energy
market volatility. Devpura and Narayan (2020) and Narayan (2020a) observed that COVID-19 cases and fatalities
increased oil price volatility and largely affected oil prices. Huang and Zheng (2020) indicated structural changes in the
relationship between investors’ sentiment and crude oil futures. Gil-Alana and Monge (2020) stated the inefficiency of
the oil market due to the pandemic. Furthermore, the COVID-19 affected the dynamics between the oil and stock
markets. For instance, Liu et al. (2020a) identified a negative relationship between oil and stock returns. Prabheesh et al.
(2020a,b) observed a positive relationship for net oil-importing and oil-exporting countries.
Fig. 3 illustrates that crude oil prices started declining during the outbreak of the COVID-19 from December 31, 2019,
till the last week of April 2020. This was the first time in history that oil price became negative (US$ −36.98) on April
20th, 2020. Although the recovery can be observed from May, the price has not reached the pre-COVID period level.
Crude oil is one of the key ingredients of the production process. The decline in oil prices may reduce production
costs and increase economic growth (Filis, 2010; Sadorsky, 1999) and affect monetary policy (Prabheesh and Rahman,
2019). Thus, falling oil prices were beneficial for net-oil importing countries. In contrast, net-oil exporting countries
witnessed a severe reduction in oil revenue, stock market crashes, and financial market volatility. The reduction in oil
revenue resulted in an insufficient net export surplus, thereby leading to current account unsustainability (Garg and
Prabheesh, 2017, 2020)
and insolvency (Garg and Prabheesh, 2018). Oil-exporting countries experienced sharp recessions during the COVID-19
period, such as Russia (−6.6%), Saudi Arabia (−6.8%), and Nigeria (−5.4%).

6. COVID-19 and policy suggestions

This section discusses the relevance of four policy options to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19: monetary policy,
macro-prudential regulation, fiscal policy, and policy coordination.
Fig. 2. Exchange rate of most affected countries.
This figure indicates the plots of exchange rates of the most affected countries during the COVID-19. It covers stock indices for Argentina, Brazil,
Colombia, India, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Spain, and the USA. The period spans from January 1, 2019, to September 17, 2020. The exchange
rate data are collected from the CEIC Database. The blue line indicates the data period’s division into two, such as the pre-COVID-19 and the COVID-19
period. The USA’s exchange rate is not considered as it is the benchmark currency for all other economies. We can observe that all the economies
witness currency depreciation during the COVID-19 period. Most currencies witness depreciation till mid-April and show a slower improvement in
the aftermath. However, the exchange rate of all economies witness high volatility except that of Argentina. Argentina indicates a steep increase in
its exchange rate, implying continuous depreciation of the Argentinian Peso to the dollar in the COVID-19 period. In terms of recovery, all other
economies’ currency is improving but far behind than the pre-COVID period. Surprisingly, Spain indicates tremendous appreciation after the mid-may
period. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

6.1. Monetary policy

Monetary policy could play a crucial role in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19. However, the nature of the adoption
of monetary policy may differ across economies in terms of their economic condition during the ongoing pandemic.
Hofmann et al. (2020) argued that the adoption of monetary policy by the emerging economies in response to the
COVID- 19 pandemic may not be effective due to excessive volatility in the exchange rates and capital flows. However,
emerging
 Fig. 2. (continued).

Fig. 3. Trends in oil prices.

The figure plots the oil prices from January 2, 2019, to September 15, 2020. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. The daily oil price is based on
the West Texas Intermediate and collected from the Energy Information Administration. The blue line indicates the division of the data period into
two such as pre and COVID-19 periods. We can observe that the oil prices during the COVID-19 period are lesser than the pre-COVID-19 period.
(For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

economies can adopt a combination of inflation targeting and macroprudential tools as well as forex reserve
accumulation as their policy framework to tackle the changes in capital flows and exchange rates ( BIS, 2019).
Considering that this policy framework facilitates financial stability, the emerging economies can adopt the same
combination of policies to respond to the instability caused by the pandemic. Inflation targeting could help mitigate the
effects of exchange rate on inflation. Macroprudential tools promote the resilience of the financial system. Furthermore,
the accumulation of reserves can help absorb shocks and alleviate financial stress on emerging economies as the central
banks are capable of dealing with currency depreciation, default risk on external borrowings, and capital outflows
(Hofmann et al., 2020; Prabheesh, 2013). The economies with large forex reserves would be able to manage their
currency depreciation by intervening in the foreign exchange market during the pandemic. In this context, the central
banks of emerging economies have to adopt monetary policies by considering domestic liquidity and foreign exchange
market condition.
As the COVID-19 is associated with lower inflation in advanced economies, expansionary monetary policy could
facilitate higher economic growth and higher investment in the productive sector. However, the monetary policies of
advanced and emerging economies are not independent of each other. The global monetary policy and its shocks play
a dominant role in determining domestic macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy. Accordingly, the adoption
of monetary policy in advanced economies influences the emerging economies’ monetary policy decisions (Prabheesh
and Vidya, 2018; Shareef and Prabheesh, 2020). Furthermore, the role of trade and financial integration fosters shock
transmission and creates the fear of a financial contagion (Padhan and Prabheesh, 2019). Therefore, the effectiveness of
the domestic monetary policy will depend on shock transmissions from the advanced economies. In this context, the
adoption of monetary policy with macroprudential measures could improve an economy’s policy effectiveness.

6.2. Macroprudential regulation

Considering financial instability caused by the COVID-19, macroprudential policies could help maintain stability and
reduce systematic risk in the financial system. Accordingly, a broad range of macroprudential measures can enhance
resilience to global financial shocks. For instance, these measures include the tools that boost bank capital and liquidity,
limit foreign exchange exposures, and prevent risky credit (Drehmann et al., 2020; Restoy, 2019). These tools have a
heterogeneous effect in reducing the global financial shocks hitting an economy. Furthermore, macroprudential regulation
reduces the sensitivity of domestic credit to global financial shocks. This claim is in line with the hypothesis that a
stronger bank balance sheet leads to a steadier credit supply. In addition, macroprudential regulation stabilizes nominal
and real exchange rates as a safer financial system that reduces currency premium volatility (IMF, 2020).
Macroprudential regulation will help control fluctuations in exchange rates and capital flows that may undermine
financial stability. In this situation, monetary policy along with macroprudential regulation can reduce the negative
effects of the COVID-19 and promote higher economic growth. Accordingly, a possible channel could be the adoption of
countercyclical monetary policy along with macroprudential regulation in response to global financial shocks. At a
higher level of macroprudential regulation, central banks respond more counter-cyclically by lowering policy rates to
maintain stability in exchange rates and capital outflows (IMF, 2020).

6.3. Fiscal policy

Fiscal policy can effectively protect people, stabilize demand, and facilitate recovery across economies during the on-
going pandemic as well as in the aftermath of this event. Considering the continuity of lockdowns across economies,
fiscal policies should be accommodated to healthcare services to provide emergency lifelines to protect people ( Chakraborty
and Thomas, 2020). While lockdowns are easing, fiscal policies should be aimed at household supports and firms to take care
of the informality of the economy. Furthermore, employment support measures could help encourage the safe return to
jobs and facilitate structural shift for the quick recovery of the economy after the pandemic. Once the pandemic slows
down, the fiscal stimulus will be crucial for public investment, healthcare systems, and physical and digital
infrastructure. In the case of limited fiscal space, economies should generate revenue, increase spending, and promote
productive investment. All the policy measures need to be organized in a medium-term fiscal framework with
transparent management to mitigate fiscal risks (IMF, 2020).

6.4. Policy coordination

A need for domestic as well as global efforts is felt to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19. In the context of global
policy change, World Economic Outlook (June 2020) has considered the effects of the COVID-19 as ‘‘A Crisis Like No Other,
An Uncertain Recovery’’ and listed few policy actions to mitigate its adverse effects.

1. Fiscal Monitor Database of Country Fiscal Measures (June 2020) announced an amount of $11 trillion for fiscal
measures worldwide.
2. According to the Global Financial Stability Report (June 2020), major central banks experienced a rise in liquidity
7
and borrowing costs. Some emerging economies adopted quantitative easing for the first time, whereas some
advanced economies increased the scale of asset purchases. Portfolio flows into emerging economies re-
established
after the outflows during February–March, and currency bond insurance became stronger for economies with strong
credit ratings. Furthermore, modification of bank loan repayment terms and release of capital and liquidity buffers
increased the supply of credit globally.
3. Oil prices increased in May–June close to stable current spot prices after West Texas Intermediate witnessed a
negative value on April 20, 2020.
4. As of mid-June, several currencies for advanced and emerging economies weakened substantially. A need for
systematic intervention exists to face the challenges associated with currency depreciation.

The magnitude of economic costs necessitates international policy coordination to respond to the pandemic.
Chakraborty and Thomas (2020) highlighted the need for more fiscal policy–monetary policy coordination to boost
policy response to the COVID-19. Furthermore, a need for global coordination exists in health and medical
infrastructure as well as in trade, finance, and macroeconomic policies.
In the context of domestic policy effort at the national level, policy coordination among the trio, i.e., monetary,
macroprudential, and fiscal policies, could effectively reduce the effects of the COVID-19.
The macroprudential policy’s major objective is to ensure financial stability and avoid systematic risk, whereas the
monetary policy aims to maintain price stability and manage liquidity. The objective of fiscal policy is to boost
aggregate demand and facilitate fiscal buffer. All three have different tools such as loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and
leverage ratios (macroprudential policy); CRR, SLR, the repo rate, and reverse repo rate (monetary policy), and tax
and discretionary
8
countercyclical measures (fiscal policy). Time inconsistency problems exist between macroprudential and monetary
policies under a central bank’s dual objective to promote price and financial stability (Ueda and Valencia, 2014). Thus,
these two policies can be used ex-ante and ex-post simultaneously. As per BASEL III, one group of economists supports

7 Quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy adopted by central banks to increase money supply in the economy.
8 Time inconsistency is a situation in which preference of decision makers changes over time.
the major benefits of implementation, whereas another group of specialists opposes the adoption of the new rule due to
higher implementation costs. Conclusively, higher policy coordination would yield higher policy effectiveness in mitigating
the effects of the COVID-19.
Suppose, if policymakers have the motive of implementing monetary policy to reduce the value of public debt by
generating higher inflation, the fall in the real interest rate due to expansionary monetary policy will lead to more
capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation. In that case, the prime solution is to stabilize the exchange rate by
depletion of reserves. A country should have enough reserves to undertake the stabilization process in the world
market. Differently, in the case of expansionary fiscal policy, an increase in fiscal deficit reflects an increase in the
current account deficit by
9
supporting the ‘‘twin deficit hypothesis. ’’ The country has to borrow or print money to finance the deficit, which may
either increase foreign debt level or inflation. Furthermore, the increase in foreign debt may lead to debt sustainability,
whereas an increase in inflation leads to capital outflows due to a fall in the real interest rate. In this context, the
macroprudential policy tools help reduce the cost of intermediation and support price stability and debt sustainability. The
tools of macroprudential, monetary, and fiscal policies must act together by promoting policy coordination to mitigate
the costs of the COVID-19 and achieve price stability, financial stability, and a sustainable level of debt. Under a strong
financial system, the adoption of liquidity circulation and fiscal buffer could mitigate the consequences in the post-
pandemic period.

7. The missing link? A direction to future research

The existing studies on the COVID-19 have identified the facets of consequences caused by this pandemic. However,
they have several shortcomings. First, existing studies have either focused on the effect of the government’s adopted
policies on the COVID-19 or on macroeconomic and financial issues caused by the COVID-19. However, they have failed to
trace a balance between these two. Policies should be framed to tackle the health crisis and macroeconomic and
financial issues simultaneously. Second, existing studies have not addressed any theoretical background of health crisis
and their occurrence pattern. Finally, although the macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 can indicate the
consequences of a health crisis, existing studies have failed to determine the explanatory variables of health crisis and
economic transmission channel across economies.
In this context, several missing links have been identified, which pave the way for future research. The first missing
link is the balance between the government’s adopted policies on the COVID-19 and macroeconomic and financial
issues. Maintaining a balance between these two policies is challenging for policymakers and a key challenge for future
research. The second missing link is the absence of theoretical background to health crisis and occurrence patterns. The
occurrence pattern of the financial crisis can never be compared with that of the health crisis, calling for a separate
section of theories to explain the health crisis’ economic channels. Given that the occurrence pattern of a health crisis
differs, the advancement of theoretical models on health crisis could be crucial to explain the occurrence pattern of a
pandemic. The third link revolves around the explanatory variables of health crisis and identification of economic
transmission channel. A comparative analysis with the previous pandemic could no longer explain the explanatory
variables and transmission channels because of the different situations and types of economic channels. Therefore,
identifying the explanatory variables of health crisis and transmission channels needs serious progress. Finally,
modeling the economic channels will be a daunting task in the absence of a theoretical explanation of a health crisis.
This opens up avenues for greater future research, and researchers should focus on resolving the above ideas.

8. Conclusion and policy implications

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented damage to the global economy in terms of human tolls and
economic consequences. It posed a greater challenge for the investors and policymakers to mitigate the consequences
of this pandemic.
This study has highlighted the economic effects of the COVID-19 and emphasized policy options to reduce its effects.
The study concludes that through monetary, macroprudential, and fiscal policies can independently help mitigate the
effects; the combined trio could be more effective in the post-pandemic period. Therefore, coordination is required
among ‘‘trio’’, i.e., monetary, macroprudential, and fiscal policies, to reduce the effects of the COVID-19.
This study has several policy implications. The monetary expansion will increase aggregate demand and induce
firms to boost their investment from the monetary policy perspective. From the fiscal policy perspective, government
policies such as subsidizing firms’ investment and the introduction of public investment programs could help promote
10
investment. Independently, monetary expansion could fall into expectation-driven stagnation traps, adversely affecting
the growth fundamentals of an economy. Accordingly, conventional macroeconomic theories should be modified as per
the situation and coordinated to maintain the aggregate demand–supply equilibrium effectively. Apparently, conventional

9 The ‘‘twin deficits hypothesis’’ indicates that there is a connection between fiscal and current account deficits.
10 It refers to a situation where the inflation and unemployment remain steadily high, whereas economic growth remains low. The conventional
monetary policy operating in the zero lower bound will not be effective to counteract the drop in demand. This will eventually lead to fall in
employment, investment, and economic activity. This will result in self-fulfilling pessimistic expectations of weak growth once the fundamentals are
too weak, leading to expectation driven stagflation trap.
 Table A.1
Historical footprints on pandemics.
Source: Alfani and Murphy (2017) and Jorda et al. (2020).
Pandemic event Start year End year Death
Black Death 1331 1353 75,000,000
Italian Plague 1623 1632 280,000
Great Plague of Seville 1647 1652 2,000,000
Great Plague of London 1665 1666 100,000
Great Plague of Marseille 1720 1722 100,000
First Cholera Pandemic 1816 1826 100,000
Second Cholera Pandemic 1829 1851 100,000
Russia Cholera Pandemic 1852 1860 1,000,000
Global Flu Pandemic 1889 1890 1,000,000
Sixth Cholera Pandemic 1899 1923 800,000
Encephalitis Lethargica Pandemic 1915 1926 1,500,000
Spanish Flu 1918 1920 100,000,000
Asian Flu 1957 1958 2,000,000
Hong Kong Flu 1968 1967 1,000,000
H1N1 Pandemic 2009 2010 203,000

This table covers the historical record of large pandemic events with at least 100,000 deaths. We can
observe that the Spanish Flu was the largest in terms of death, followed by Black Death.

macroeconomic policies cannot be restricted only to conventional measures. It should complement social policies such
11
as a whole government approach to face the health emergency caused by the COVID-19. Conventional
macroeconomic policies need to be organized into relief measures, recovery policies, and international coordination
measures.
Future research should focus on the effects of the COVID-19 on capital flows, exchange rates, and various sectors of
the economy. It will be a challenging task for the policymakers to face the health crisis or to correct the macroeconomic
and financial issues posed by the COVID-19. Furthermore, there is greater scope for future research to examine how the
developed and emerging economies function in the pandemic situation and adopt policies to face the health crisis as
well as macroeconomic and financial issues.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgment

This research did not receive any special grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit
sectors. The earlier version of this paper was presented at the 14th Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
International Conference, Bali, Indonesia (Webinar).

Appendix A. Pandemics: A historical perspective

The earliest known pandemic, Black Death in 1331, is considered to be the costliest pandemic, with 75 million
fatalities out of 450 million in the world. The Spanish flu in 1918 that occurred during the 20th century was classified as
‘‘severe’’, followed by the Asian flu in 1957 and Hong Kong flu in 1968. The H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was the first
pandemic in the 21st century, with more than 2 million fatalities. From the table below, we can observe that every
pandemic has resulted in millions of fatalities (see Table A.1).

Appendix B. COVID-19: A novel experience

The COVID-19, the 2nd pandemic of the 21st century, has driven all attention of policymakers and is set to become
the most devastating pandemic that the world has witnessed so far. In the context of the historical pandemics, Ferguson
et al. (2020) considered COVID-19 as the most serious pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. The absence of
pharmaceutical inventions will contribute to the death tolls and could make the COVID-19 the most devastating
pandemic event of the 21st century (see Table B.1).
As of September 17, 2020, COVID-19 has affected 213 countries with 937,391 fatalities and 29,737,453 confirmed cases
reported by the WHO. The following table shows the top 10 worst-affected countries with the most cases due to COVID-19.

11 It refers to all social and economic policies like social protection, urban management, public communication, and financial and goods market
under same roof.
 Table B.1
Statistics on COVID-19 and countries’ ranking.
Source: WHO emergency dashboard.
Countries Confirmed cases No. of fatalities Ranking 1 Ranking 2
United States of America 6,530,324 194,434 1 1
India 5,118,253 83,198 2 3
Brazil 4,382,263 133,119 3 2
Russia 1,085,281 19,061 4 12
Peru 738,020 30,927 5 7
Colombia 728,590 23,288 6 11
Mexico 676,487 71,678 7 4
South Africa 653,444 15,705 8 13
Spain 614,360 30,243 9 9
Argentina 577,338 11,910 10 15

This table covers no. of confirmed cases and death due to COVID-19 till September 17, 2020. Ranking 1 is done on the
basis of no. of confirmed cases, whereas ranking 2 is based on the no. of fatalities caused by this disease.

The table shows that the USA experienced the largest effect in the world and ranks first in terms of confirmed cases
and death. India becomes the second most affected country in terms of confirmed cases and third in terms of fatalities.
Brazil ranks third in terms of confirmed cases and second in terms of fatalities. Further, out of the top 10 most affected
countries in terms of confirmed cases, 6 are ranked in terms of fatalities. Surprisingly, China does not occupy any place
in rankings either in terms of confirmed cases or fatalities, indicating improved COVID conditions and medical
facilities. Major economies like the USA, India, Russia, Mexico, and Spain witnessed the severity of COVID-19 and may
experience more economic consequences in the future. Among the top 10 economies, the major economies like the USA
(center economies), Russia (oil-exporting economies), and India (one of the Asian giants and large market) would lead
to more downturn in production, investment, and consumption, resulting in a downturn in the global economy.

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 Ekonomi Analisis Dan Kebijakan 70 (2021) 220–
237

Artikel survei'

Ekonomi pandemi COVID-19: Survei

a,∗, b
Rakesh Padhan K.P. Prabheesh
Departemen
Seni Liberal, Institut Teknologi India Hyderabad, Kandi, Sangareddy, Telangana, 502285, India
b
Departemen Seni Liberal, Institut Hyderabad India, Kandi, Sangareddy, Telangana, 502285, India

article info
ab s t r a c t
Riwayat artikel:
Diterima 24 September 2020 Melalui survei literatur tentang ekonomi pandemi virus corona (COVID-19),
Diterima dalam formulir revisi 6 penelitian ini mengeksplorasi efek pandemi dan mengusulkan arah kebijakan
Februari 2021 Diterima 20 Februari potensial untuk memitigasi efeknya. Survei kami mengungkapkan bahwa
2021 dampak ekonomi yang merugikan have telah diamati karena pandemi COVID-19
Tersedia secara online 25 Februari 2021
selain korban jiwa. Selanjutnya, survei menunjukkan perlunya koordinasi yang
Klasifikasi JEL: lebih besar di tingkat nasional dan internasional. Penelitian ini diakhiri dengan
E0 menyarankan koordinasi di antara kebijakan moneter, makroprudensial,dan fiskal
E52 (trio) untuk memitigasi dampak buruk ekonomi dari COVID-19. Akhirnya,
E58
penelitian ini mengeksplorasi arah potensial untuk penelitian di masa depan.
H30 © Economic Society of Australia 2021, Queensland. Diterbitkan oleh Elsevier B.V.
G18
Semua hak
Kata kunci: Dipesan.
Covid-19
Kebijakan Fiskal
Kebijakan
Moneter
Pandemi
Kebijakan makroprudensial

1. Perkenalan

1. 2
Makalah ini melakukan survei literatur tentang ekonomi pandemi COVID-19 Tujuannya adalah untuk
mengeksplorasi efek ekonomi dari COVID-19 dan menyarankan arah kebijakan untuk mengurangi besarnya.
Clark (2016) berpendapat bahwa pandemi adalah pembunuh berantai yang dapat memiliki konsekuensi
yang menghancurkan pada manusia dan ekonomi global. Misalnya, flu Spanyol pada tahun 1918 menewaskan 50
juta orang di seluruh dunia. Selain korban jiwa, pandemi dapat menyebabkan krisis ekonomi dan kesehatan. Selain itu,
ndemik padapat mengakibatkan gangguan sosial-psikologis kepada masyarakat di mana orang miskin menyaksikan beban
krisis lebih dari rekan-rekan mereka yang lebih kaya. Efek dari pandemi tetap tidak pasti karena kurangnya pola
prediktif kejadiannya, terutama dengan tidak adanya penemuan farmasi.
Studi kami dilatarbelakanmotivasi oleh pandemi coronavirus yang sedang berlangsung dan efek multifasetnya
pada ekonomi di seluruh dunia. Pada awal Desember 2019, Kota Wuhan, China, menyaksikan asal mula novel
''coronavirus'' (COVID-19 selanjutnya) pada awalnya. COVID-19 adalah infeksi virus yang sangat menular dan
patogen. Pada 11 Maret. 2020, Dunia

∗ Korespondensi untuk: Departemen Seni Liberal, Institut Teknologi India Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
Alamat e-mail: la14m15p100002@iith.ac.in, rakeshpadhan230@gmail.com (R. Padhan), prabheesh@la.iith.ac.in (K.P. Prabheesh).
1 Kependekan dari COVID-19 digunakan untuk penyakit virus Corona 2019, di seluruh kertas.

2 Kata pandemi berasal dari kata Yunani ''Pandemos'', yang berarti 'umum bagi semua orang'. Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia
menegaskan bahwa pandemi adalah situasi penyebaran global penyakit baru. Kolera pada tahun 1817, flu Spanyol pada
tahun 1918, flu Asia pada tahun 1957, dan pandemi H1N1 pada tahun 2009 adalah beberapa contoh peristiwa pandemi yang
telah disaksikan dunia sebelumnya.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.02.012
0313-5926/© 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Diterbitkan oleh Elsevier B.V. Semua hak dilindungi undang-undang.
R. Padhan Dan K.P. Ekonomi Analisis Dan Kebijakan 70 (2021) 220–
Prabheesh 237

Organisasi Kesehatan (WHO) menyatakan COVID-19 sebagai wabah pandemi global pada 11 Maret 2020. COVID-19
dianggap sebagai patogen ''sekali dalam satu abad'' karena alasan berikut. Pertama, risiko fatalitas yang
terkait dengan COVID-19 adalah 1%, yang lebih menyedihkan daripada influenza khas, karena dapat membunuh
orang sehat serta lanjut usia. Risiko fatalitas ini dapat dibandingkan dengan pandemi influenza 1857
(0,6%) dan flu Spanyol 1918 (2%). Namun, tingkat fatalitas aktual COVID-19 tetap tidak dapat diprediksi, karena tidak
adanya penemuan farmasi. Kedua, tingkat eksponensial penularan penyakit ini menunjukkan bahwa COVID-
19 akan jauh lebih parah daripada pandemi lainnya.
The efek ekonomi dari COVID-19 dapat secara luas dikategorikan ke dalam efek penawaran dan permintaan. Efek
pasokan dihasilkan dari hilangnya jam kerja, dan penurunan permintaan agregat hasil dari penurunan pendapatan
karena pengangguran yang terkait dengan lockdowns. Maliszewska dkk. (2020) mengklaim bahwa pandemi
mempengaruhi perekonomian melalui saluran berikut: (1) efek langsung dari pengurangan pekerjaan; (2) kenaikan biaya
transaksi ional internat; (3) penurunan tajam dalam perjalanan, dan (4) penurunan permintaan akan layanan yang
membutuhkan kedekatan antara orang-orang. Pertama, pengurangan lapangan kerja menyebabkan permintaan modal
yang lebih rendah, sehingga mengakibatkan hilangnya output. Kedua, meningkatnya biaya impor dan ekspor
barang dan jasa mengakibatkan penurunan perdagangan dan hilangnya produktivitas. Ketiga, penurunan
tajam dalam pariwisata internasional menghasilkan pendapatan yang lebih sedikit, sehingga menyebabkan
kerugian produksi. Akhirnya, penurunan permintaan oleh rumah tangga, yang membeli lebih sedikit layanan
daripada sebelumnya, jauh mengurangi konsumsi barang dan jasa. Selain itu, kontraksi investasi langsung asing,
efek nyata dari guncangan keuangan, dan turunnya harga minyak memperlebar biaya ekonomi yang terkait dengan
COVID-19. Dalam konteks ini muncul beberapa pertanyaan: (1) Apa efek merugikan dari pandemi COVID-19?
(2) Apa keputusan kebijakan yang akan diadopsi untuk mengurangi efeknya?
Pendekatan kami dalam penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut. Pertama, kita fokus pada efek COVID-19 yang dialami
dunia hingga saat ini. Kedua, kita memperpanjang pekerjaan Maliszewska dkk. (2020) untuk memasukkan pasar
saham, nilai tukar, dan pasar minyak sebagai saluran konsekuensi ekonomi. Ketiga, kami menekankan empat
aspek olicy p dalam menanggapi COVID-19: kebijakan moneter, regulasi makroprudensial, kebijakan fiskal, dan
koordinasi kebijakan. Akhirnya, kami membuat agenda penelitian untuk penelitian di masa depan.
Dengan demikian, kami mengikuti beberapa langkah: (1) kami mengidentifikasi beberapa literatures tentang
pandemi dan COVID-19, sehingga memperoleh 80 makalah. Makalah ini diperoleh dari Journal of Economic
History, Applied Economic Letters, Asian Eco- nomic Letters, Economic Analysis and Policy, Emerging Markets Finance and
Trade, Energy Economics, Energy Research Letters, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, dan Finance Research Letters.
Selanjutnya, kami memperoleh 11 makalah kerja dari International Monetary Fund (IMF), National Bureau of Economic
Research, CEPR, Bank for International Settlements, dan World Bank; konten dari blog IMF; 3 buku (Penerbitan Tata
Kelola IT dan VOX EU.); dan 5 bab dan laporan dari World Economic Outlook, Banks for International Settlements, dan
European Commission. Teknik filter ini dikaitkan dengan sejarah dan konsekuensi pandemi, termasuk COVID-19.
Mengingat literatur tentang pandemi COVID-19 adalah evolving, kami memasukkan sebagian besar makalah
yang diterbitkan pada atau sebelum 10 Desember 2020. Makalah dan jurnal ini dipilih berdasarkan relevansinya
dengan pertanyaan penelitian makalah ini. Lebih lanjut, penelitian ini mencakup berbagai aspek ekonomi dan
menunjukkan efek COVID-19 melalui analisis komparatif COVID-19 dengan pandemi sebelumnya dalam
hal jumlah korban jiwa. Dengan demikian, kami memilih sepuluh ekonomi dengan jumlah kasus tertinggi hingga
17 September 2020, dan menunjukkan indikator pasar saham dan kinerja nilai tukar pada periode pra-COVID
dan COVID-19. (3) Kami menekankan empat kebijakan dalam menanggapi COVID-19: kebijakan moneter,
peraturan kehati-hatian makro, kebijakan fiskal, dan koordinasi kebijakan. Akhirnya, kami mengidentifikasi
keterbatasan studi yang ada dan membuat agenda untuk penelitian di masa depan.
Penelitian ini menyesalkanutes terhadap literatur dalam banyak hal. Pertama, penelitian ini merupakan salah
satu upaya pertama untuk mendokumentasikan efek ekonomi dari pandemi COVID-19. Kedua, penelitian ini
memperpanjang pekerjaan Maliszewska dkk. (2020 ) dengan memasukkan efek COVID-19 di pasar saham, nilai
tukar, pasar minyak ke-nd. Ketiga, penelitian ini merupakan upaya pertama untuk mengusulkan arah kebijakan
yang komprehensif dalam menanggapi COVID-19 dengan menekankan koordinasi kebijakan. Akhirnya, studi kami
sejalan dengan Goodell (2020), yang melakukan survei literatur komprehensif dan menyoroti kerugian ekonomi globalyang
belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya karena COVID-19.
Tulisan ini disusun sebagai berikut. Bagian 2 menyajikan efek dari COVID-19. Bagian 3 dan 4 menunjukkan
efek COVID-19 pada pasar saham dan nilai tukar, masing-masing. Bagian 5 mencakup efek pandemi di pasar
minyak. Bagian 6 mengusulkan saran kebijakan. Bagian 7 menyoroti keterbatasan literatur yang ada dan
menawarkan arah penelitian di masa depan. Akhirnya, Bagian 8 menyimpulkan studi dan menyarankan
implikasi kebijakan.

2. Efek DARI COVID-19

Covid-19 pandemic telah mengakibatkan penurunan aktivitas global yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya.
Pandemi yang semakin meningkat di negara maju dan ekonomi berkembang menyebabkan penguncian yang ketat dan

1
R. Padhan Dan K.P. Ekonomi Analisis Dan Kebijakan 70 (2021) 220–
Prabheesh
gangguan besar dalam 237
aktivitas ekonomi dengan kecepatan dan skala yang luar biasa (Baldwin dan diMauro, 2020; Gopinath,
2020). Misalnya, PDB global menurun lebih dari 4,9% pada kuartal II-2020 karena gangguan ekonomi.
Penurunan perdagangan barang dan jasa kemungkinan lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan saat krisis keuangan
global(IMF, 2020) 2007–2020). Dengan perkembangan tersebut, perdagangan global mengalami kontraksi sebesar
3,5% pada triwulan II 2020 karena lemahnya permintaan dan pasokan. Penguncian berikutnya di seluruh
ekonomi karena COVID-19 mengganggu rantai pasokan global, mengurangi permintaan agregat (Vidya dan Prabheesh,
2020). Konsumsi barang dan jasa menyaksikan penurunan yang ditandai karena kehilangan pendapatan yang
curam dan kepercayaan konsumen yang lemah.

Begitu pula dengan konsumen yang enggan mengonsumsi barang dan jasa tertentu karena khawatir terjadinya
penularan COVID (Eichenbaum dkk. , 2020). Perusahaan diharuskan untuk memangkas kembali investasi
karena penurunan permintaan yang curah hujan, gangguan pasokan, dan pendapatan di masa depan yang tidak pasti.
Dunia kehilangan hampir 300 juta pekerjaan penuh waktu pada kuartal kedua 2020 dari 130 kehilangan pekerjaan
penuh waktu pada kuartal pertama 2020 (IMF, 2020). Penurunan permintaan agregat tersebut mengakibatkan inflasi
dan harga bahan bakar minyak (IMF, 2020) lebih rendah. World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) memperkirakan
penurunan 25% perjalanan global pada 2020 karena pandemi e COVID-19.
Negara-negara emerging economies mengalami arus modal keluar yang signifikan akibat pandemi, sehingga
mengurangi investasi dan menyebabkan kerugian produksi (BIS, 2019). Selama periode COVID-19, perang
minyak Rusia-Arab Saudi mengurangi nilai harga minyak dari $ 31,05 per barel pada 8 Maret 2020, menjadi $ 19,23
per barel pada 30 April 2020. Demikian pula, pasar saham di seluruh dunia mulai crashing dari 25 Februari. Misalnya,
Wall Street menyaksikan penurunan harga saham satu hari yang besar pada minggu kedua Maret 2020 karena kurangnya
kepercayaan investor setelah deklarasi larangan perjalanan AS dan suku bunga yang tidak berubah oleh bank ntral
ceEropa. Secara meyakinkan, pandemi yang sedang berlangsung telah berdampak buruk pada perekonomian global;
konsekuensi ini mungkin lebih parah di masa depan mengingat meningkatnya korban jiwa.

2
2.1. Sintesis literatur empiris tentang COVID-19

Literatur yang ada tentang efek COVID-19 telah menekankan berbagai masalah. Misalnya, Barro dkk. (2020), Choi
(2020), Iyke (2020c), Jorda dkk. (2020), dan Liu dkk. (2020b) mengamati output dan kontraksi kredit akibat
COVID-19. Liu dkk. (2020c), Maliszewska dkk. (2020), dan Yu dkk. (2020) menunjukkan penurunan konsumsi dan
investasi. Ertugrul dkk. (2020) menunjukkan peningkatan volatilitas konsumsi. Bauer dan Weber (2020) mengkonfirmasi
penurunan tingkatpartisipasi angkatan kerja. Selanjutnya, perusahaan yang terkena dampak negatif COVID-19 dan
pertunjukan industry (Gu dkk. , 2020; Dia dkk. , 2020a,b; Iyke, 2020a; Qin dkk. , 2020a; Xiong dkk. , 2020). Selain
itu, kinerja perusahaan yang terkena dampak buruk COVID-19 (Shen dkk. , 2020), pasar asuransi (Wangdkk. , 2020),
perilaku menginding(Espinosa-Méndez dan Arias, 2020), dan harga properti (Wang dkk. , 2020). 3
Tabel 1 menyajikan rincian literatur empiris tentang efek COVID-19.

3. COVID-19 dan pasar saham

Eak outbrdari pandemi COVID-19 telah meningkatkan risiko keuangan global, sehingga berdampak buruk pada
pasar keuangan global (Al-Awadhi dkk. , 2020; Tukang roti dkk. , 2020; Cao dkk. , 2020; Gil-Alana dan Claudio-Quiroga,
2020; Gormsen dan Koijen, 2020; Harjoto dkk. , 2020; Liu dkk. , 2020a; Phan dan Narayan, 2020). COVID-19
berdampak negatif pada pasar saham dalam bentuk ketidakpastian dan pengurangan pengembalian saham di seluruh
dunia, sehingga mengurangi aliran modal. Pengurangan ini disebabkan oleh ketidakpastian pasar saham,akhirnya
menciptakan hambatan dalam investasi, pendanaan proyek, dan ketersediaan likuiditas dalam sistem keuangan
global.
Bukti empiris menunjukkan bahwa pandemi ini berdampak negatif pada pengembalian pasar saham (Al-Awadhi
dkk. , 2020; Ambros dkk. , 2020; Mishra dkk. , 2020; Topcu dan Gulal, 2020)) dan peningkatan volatilitas pengembalian
saham(Corbet dkk. , 2020; Harun
dan Rizvi, 2020a,b; Sharma, 2020; Zaremba dkk. , 2020). Akhtaruzzaman dkk. (2020) dan Corbet dkk. (2020)
menegaskan kuatnyar peran penularan keuangan dalam menghasilkan volatilitas pengembalian saham. 4 Goodell
(2020) menegaskan bahwa penurunan pasar saham selama pandemi ini diakibatkan oleh keterlambatan investor
dalam keputusan investasi.
FIG. 1 menunjukkan tren di pasar saham dari 10 5ekonomi teratas yang terkena dampak pandemi. Dalam
gambar,
penurunan drastis dapat diamati selama Maret. 6 Kolombia dan Spanyol mengalami penurunan tertinggi. Selain itu,
pengalaman pemulihan pasar saham bervariasi di seluruh negara ini. Misalnya, pasar saham di Argentina, Afrika
Selatan, dan AS pulih dalam waktu dua bulan dan mencapai tingkat pra-krisis pada akhir Mei. Tujuh negara
sisanya masih belum pulih dari efek negatif pandemi. Yang jelas, pengamatan ini menunjukkan bahwa pandemi
COVID-19 berdampak buruk pada kinerja pasar saham.

3 Tidak dapat diseralisasi hanya memiliki eperkusi ryang merugikan. Misalnya, Ming dkk. (2020) menunjukkan
bahwa COVID-19
bahwa pandemi telah meningkatkan kualitas udara, yang dapat membantu untuk meningkatkan PDB nantinya.
COVID-19
Appiah-Otoo (2020) mengindikasikan kredit domestik yangterdampak positif COVID-19. Apergis and Apergis (2020b) mendukung
efek positif terhadap ekspektasi inflasi. Berbeda, Salisu dan Akanni (2020) membangun indeks ketakutan global dan
menunjukkan signifikansinya dalam memprediksi pengembalian saham dan meningkatkan kinerja perkiraan. Sebagai kekuatan mitigasi, lockdown,
pembatasan perjalanan, dan paket stimulus ekonomi berdampak positif pada pasar saham di negara-negara G7 (Narayan,
2020b). Dalam kasus pasar forex, Narayan dkk. (2020) menegaskan depresiasi menyebabkan jatuhnya pengembalian saham Jepang. Narayan
(2020b)mengkonfirmasi bahwa Yen memiliki efek transitory dan bahwa COVID-19 mengubah resistensi of yen menjadi guncangan. Salisu dan

)
Sikiru (2020 mendukung potensi lindung nilai saham Syariah Asia-Pasifik, sedangkan Ferriani dan Natoli (2020) menegaskan preferensi investor
terhadap dana risiko ESG rendah. Lebih lanjut, Mariana dkk. (2020) dan Mnif dkk. (2020 ) mendukung efisiensi cryptocurrency sebagai

tempat yang aman. Erdem (2020) menegaskan bahwa negara-negara yang lebih bebas dikaitkan dengan peningkatan volatilitas yang
lebih kecil. Dalam konteks pasar modal, Prabheesh (2020) menegaskan bahwa investasi portofolio asing meningkatkan prediksi imbal

hasil pasar saham. Chen dkk. (2020b) mengkonfirmasi efek positif pada aliran masuk pengiriman uang. Dalam hal keputusan

pemerintah, Haldar dan Sethi (2020) mengindikasikan bahwa kebijakan demografis dan pemerintah secara signifikan menentukan
)
COVID-19. Selanjutnya, lihat Sha dan Sharma (2020 untuk detail lebih lanjut.
4 Chen dkk. (2020a), Conlon dan McGee (2020), dan Grobys (2020) mengkonfirmasid bahwa Bitcoin tidak lagi menjadi tempat yang
aman selama periode pandemi ini,
menunjukkan penurunan signifikan dalam diversifikasi portofolio.

5 10 ekonomi teratas dipilih berdasarkan no. kasus yang dikonfirmasi hingga 17 September 2020. Selanjutnya, 6 dari 10

ekonomi terpilih juga berada di peringkat dalam hal korban jiwa. Lihat Lampiran A dan B untuk detail selengkapnya.
6 Pasar saham menyaksikan (global stock market crash) Black Monday pada 9 Maret 2020.

3
 R.
Pa
dh
an
Tabel 1
da
Literatur empiris tentang efek COVID-19
n
Sumber: Kompilasi penulis
K.
Penulis Tujuan Negara dan periode Metodologi Temuan empiris Saluran/komentar P.
sampel Pr
ab
Fu dan Shen (2020) Kinerja perusahaan di Tiong Perbedaan Negatif Goodwill gangguan
hee
sektor energi. kok dalam
2014– Pemodelan
2020 Perbedaan,
Tes Tren Paralel
Apergis dan Apergis Indeks konflik partisan AS 21/01/2020– Midas Mitigasi polarisasi Lingkungan politik AS
(2020a) AS 30/04/2020 politik
Liu dkk. (2020a) Pengembalian AS 21/01/2020– VAR yang bervariasi Negatif Kinerja ekonomi
minyak mentah 06/05/2020 waktu yang tidak
dan hubungan disalter
pengembalian stok
Prabheesh dkk. Pasar saham dan Impor minyak bersih Statistik Positif Sinyal untuk
(2020a) hubungan 01/01/2020–08/06/2020 Ringkasan kontraksi
pengembalian harga DCC- permintaan di
22
3
minyak GARCH masa depan
Prabheesh dkk. Pasar saham dan Mengekspor minyak DCC-GARCH Positif Diversifikasi
(2020b) hubungan bersih 01/01/2020– Tes Perron portofolio terbatas
pengembalian harga 10/08/2020
minyak
Qin dkk. (2020a) Hubungan pandemi Global Stabilitas CAPM intertemporal Harga minyak tidak
dan harga minyak 1996Q1– Parameter tidak konsisten dapat diabaikan
2020Q1 Kausalitas
Granger An
ali
Narayan (2020a) Berita harga minyak Global Regresi Efek yang lebih besar Berita harga sis
tentang harga minyak 02/01/1995– Ambang Batas pada harga minyak minyak negatif da
05/05/2020 Uji Narayan- mendominasi n
Popp Ke
bij
Gil-Alana dan Monge Harga minyak mentah 04/03/2010– Integrasi Pecahan Pasar yang tidak efisien Syok sementara ak
(2020) 04/05/2020 an
Devpura dan Narayan Evolusi volatilitas 01/07/2019– Tes Narayan- Positif Kasus dan kematian Ek
on
(2020) harga minyak 12/06/2020 Popp OLS berkontribusi
om
Huang dan Zheng Perubahan sentimen Global Gregorius Perubahan struktural Perubahan i
(2020) investor dan minyak 02/01/2019– dan Hansen elastisitas harga 70
mentah berjangka 11/05/2020 cointegrasi minyak mentah (2
02
Polemis dan Soursou Dampak pada Yunani Studi Acara Mempengaruhi Hipotesis efisiensi pasar 1)
(2020) perusahaan energi 02/12/2019– MEARM pengembalian 22
Yunani 02/07/2020 Model MARM mayoritas perusahaan
 yang terdaftar
Iyke (2020a) Reaksi AS 21/01/2020– EGARCH Reaksi heterogen Atribut spesifik
produsen 05/05/2020 perusahaan
minyak dan gas
Devpura (2020) Hubungan antara Yen Data Regresi Bukti terbatas bahwa Tidak ada prediksi yang
Jepang dan harga Per Prediktif harga minyak bervariasi waktu
minyak mentah Jam Statistik memprediksi Yen
berjangka Jepang Deskriptif
01/07/2019–
04/09/2020
Iyke (2020b) Prediksi pengembalian 25 Negara Statistik Daya prediktif yang Saluran wabah penyakit
nilai tukar dan 31/12/2019– Ringkasan lebih baik atas
volatilitas 08/05/2020 GARCH volatilitas
Garg dan Prabheesh Perhubungan antara BRIICS Tes Kausalitas Toda– Meningkatkan Investor berwawasan ke
(2021) nilai tukar dan suku 31/01/2020– Yamamoto prediksi nilai depan
bunga 30/06/2020 tukar
Salisu dan Adediran Memprediksi pasar Global Ols Ketidakpastian pasar Diversifikasi portofolio
(2020) energi baik
Volatilitas 21/03/2011– GARCH Prediktor
06/04/2020
(dilanjutkanpada
halaman
berikutnya)
 R.
Pa
dh
Tabel 1 ( dilanjutkan). an
da
Penulis Tujuan Negara dan periode Metodologi Temuan empiris Saluran/komentar n
sampel K.
Ali dkk. (2020) Reaksi pasar 9 negara EGARCH Kejatuhan bebas pasar Penyebaran volatilitas P.
keuangan global global Pr
01/01/2020– Regresi Bivariasi ab
30/03/2020 hee
Narayan (2020b) Dampak pada nilai Jepang NarayanPopp yang Perlawanan Yen Efek transitory
tukar bervariasi waktu terhadap guncangan
kegigihan terhadap 01/07/2019– Uji akar unit telah berubah
guncangan 04/09/2020
Ols
Narayan (2020c) Perilaku tipe Jepang, Kanada, Eropa Tes gelembung Peningkatan aktivitas Pasar menjadi relatif
gelembung dari dan gelembung
nilai tukar Britania Augmented Sup Efisien
Umum
Juli 2019–September Adf
2020
Narayan dkk. (2020) Yen Jepang dan Jepang Uji akar Unit Depresiasi Hubungan yang lebih
pengembalian saham Narayan-Popp menyebabkan kuat
keuntungan dalam
Hubungan 04/01/2010– Adalah Pengembalian saham
16/08/2020 Jepang
22 GARCH-M
4 Rai dan Garg (2021) Hubungan antara BRIICS DCC-GARCH Hubungan diperkuat Transfer risiko yang
saham signifikan
harga dan nilai tukar 02/01/2020– GARCH KELAS
15/09/2020
Narayan dkk. (2021) Pengaruh respons G7 Arch Positif Penguncian paling
pemerintah efektif
ke saham 01/07/2019– Regresi
16/04/2020
Haroon dan Rizvi Generasi sentimen dan Dunia dan AS GARCH asimetris Berita panik Berita panik
(2020a) menghasilkan berkontribusi pada
volatilitas An
volatilitas ekuitas 01/01/2020– Volatilitas ali
30/04/2020 sis
Harun dan Rizvi Pasar ekuitas, manusia 23 Muncul GARCH Mengurangi kasus, Kurva lebih datar da
(2020b) nyata berkurang n
biaya dan respons 01/01/2020– Regresi Panel Meningkatkan Ketidakpastian Ke
pemerintah 30/04/2020 likuiditas bij
Al-Awadi dkk. (2020) Hasil pasar saham Cina Regresi Panel Dampak signifikan dari Efek negatif pada ak
kenaikan saham an
10/01/2020– kasus dan kematian Kembali Ek
16/03/2020 on
Gil-Alana dan Claudio- Dampak terhadap Asia Integrasi Fraktal Efek transitory pada Sementara dan om
Quiroga pasar Saham Asia Jepang dan Permanen i
(2020) Juli 2006–September efek permanen pada Guncangan 70
2020 Tiongkok dan (2
Korea 02
Topcu dan Gulal Dampak pada saham 26 Muncul OLS Terkumpulan Dampak negatif dan Lebih tinggi di Asia 1)
(2020) yang muncul mulai yang sedang 22
berkembang dan
Pasar 10/03/2020– Estimator Driscoll– meruning pada terendah di Eropa yang
 30/04/2020 Kraay pertengahan April muncul
Ambros dkk. (2020) Dampak berita COVID- AS, Asia, dan Eropa Statistik Deskriptif Jangan temukan Dampak positif yang
19 pada 8 sensitifitas kuat pada
pasar saham 01/01/2020– CAPM saham kembali ke volatilitas pasar saham
31/03/2020 berita
Ols
Cao dkk. (2020) Mendokumentasikan 14 indeks saham Regresi Elastisitas pasar saham Jangan panik pesan
respons negatif indeks 21/01/2020– −0,028
pasar saham 30/06/2020
Ferriani dan Natoli Menganalisis risiko Dunia Regresi Terkumpulan Investor lebih suka ESG rendah secara
(2020) ESG ESG rendah positif mempengaruhi
aliran
20/01/2020– dana risiko
01/05/2020
Sharma (2020) Kesamaan dalam 5 Ekonomi Asia Statistik Deskriptif Lebih menonjol dalam Kesamaan yang lebih
Volatilitas kasus kuat
01/01/2019– Tes ADF Singapura
25/09/2020
GARCH
Akhtaruzzaman dkk. Terjadinya keuangan Dunia, Cina dan G7 VERMA DCC-GARCH Kenaikan Peran keuangan yang
(2020) pengembalian saham lebih tinggi
Penularan 01/01/2013– Diebold dan Yilmaz Korelasi Penularan
20/03/2020

(dilanjutkanpada halaman berikutnya)

 R.
Meja 1 (Terus). Pa
dh
Penulis Tujuan Negara dan periode Metodologi Temuan empiris Saluran/komentar
an
sampel da
Zhang dkk. (2020) Risiko pemetaan Global Korelasi Peningkatan substansial Kebutuhan kebijakan n
di pasar global K.
Intervensi kebijakan 22/01/2020– Pohon Spanning Risiko Koordinasi P.
27/03/2020 Minimum Pr
Zaremba dkk. (2020) Intervensi pemerintah 67 Negara Statistik Ringkasan Non-farmasi Peran kampanye ab
dan informasi
hee
Volatilitas 01/01/2020– Regresi intervensi dan pembatalan acara
pengembalian saham 03/04/2020 meningkatkan publik
volatilitas
Harjoto dkk. (2020) Reaksi pasar saham Dikembangkan dan Pendekatan Studi Kejutan negatif Lebih mengejutkan
terhadap muncul Acara terhadap saham global untuk muncul
WHO dan Federal Harian Pasar pasar dan perusahaan
Reserve kecil
Pengumuman 13/03/2019–
23/04/2020
Salisu dan Sikiru Potensi hedging dari 15 Negara Uji akar Unit berbasis Efektivitas hedging Peran faktor global
(2020) GARCH rendah
Saham Islam Asia- 31/08/2020– Model berbasis UPE
Pasifik 15/09/2020
Conlon dan McGee Bitcoin sebagai surga Global Nilai berisiko Jangan bertindak Bitcoin dengan S&P500
(2020) yang aman atau sebagai surga yang
berisiko aman
22 Surga Juli 2010–Maret 2020 risiko ke bawah
5 Chen dkk. (2020a) Takut sentimen pada Global Adalah Sentimen ketakutan Bitcoin gagal sebagai
Bitcoin memperburuk surga yang aman
Dinamika 15/01/2020– Granger Kausalitas
24/04/2020
Grobys (2020) Kinerja Bitcoin untuk Global Korelasi dinamis Bitcoin berkinerja Tidak dapat diprediksi
melakukan lindung buruk di dan tidak pasti
nilai
risiko ekuitas 19/03/2015– hedging risiko ekor korelasi dinamis
18/03/2020
Mariana dkk. (2020) Menguji Bitcoin dan Global Minox Efek negatif dengan Ethereum sebagai surga
Ethereum saham aman yang lebih baik An
sebagai surga yang 01/07/2019– cDCC kembali dan daripada bitcoin ali
aman 06/04/2020 mendukung surga sis
yang aman da
Regresi OLS n
Mnif dkk. (2020) Cryptocurrency Global MFDFA Dampak positif pada Cryptocurrency menjadi Ke
sebagai hedging efisiensi lebih bij
31/12-2019- Eksponen Umum Efisien ak
19/05/2020 Hurst an
Corbet dkk. (2020) Efek penularan pada Cina Korelasi Dinamis Hubungan volatilitas Pengembangan Ek
stok berevolusi produk baru on
Pasar 11/03/2019– GARCH Secara signifikan om
10/03/2020 i
Espinosa-Méndez dan Berpengaruh pada Australia Absolut penampang COVID-19 Manifestasi dari 70
Arias perilaku herding di meningkatkan herding (2
(2020) pasar saham 10/06/2008– model penyimpangan perilaku herding perilaku selama krisis
02
19/06/2020
1)
Dia dkk. (2020a) Kompilasi akuntansi Cina Analisis Potret Big Industri terpengaruh Sektor jasa secara 22
Data secara signifikan signifikan
Indeks 01/01/2019– kecuali industri dasar Terpengaruh
 31/03/2020
Dia dkk. (2020b) Kinerja pasar Cina Pendekatan Studi Transportasi, Manufaktur, IT,
Acara pertambangan, Pendidikan
Industri 03/06/2019– listrik, jantung dan dan Perawatan
13/03/2020 Kesehatan tetap kurang
lingkungan yang Terpengaruh
terpengaruh
Salisu dan Akanni Membangun indeks OECD & BRICS Statistik Deskriptif Prediktor kinerja yang Meningkatkan kinerja
(2020) ketakutan global & baik perkiraan
Prediktabilitas 11/03/2020– Analisis Skenario
30/04/2020
Phan dan Narayan Reaksi pasar saham 25 Negara Analisis Kejadian Pasar bereaksi Tidak ada keseragaman
(2020) terhadap nyata berlebihan terhadap dalam larangan
perjalanan
Waktu 11/03/2020– berita tak terduga
30/04/2020
Qin dkk. (2020a) Kepemilikan kas Cina Perbedaan perbedaan Dampak positif untuk Meningkatnya
tingkat perusahaan serius kepemilikan kas
perusahaan
T1: 2014–2020 Metode industri dampak
Tes Tren Paralel
Mishra dkk. (2020) Pasar keuangan India India VAR Peralihan Markov Negatif Parah dari demonisasi
dan
03/01/2003– Gst
20/04/2020
Yue dkk. (2020) Keputusan investasi Cina Probabilitas Linear Rumah tangga dengan Keputusan keuangan
rumah tangga kehilangan yang rumah tangga
terinfeksi
Keuangan Rumah Model Probit kepercayaan diri dan
Tangga China perubahan
Survei Investasi

(dilanjutkanpada
halaman
berikutnya)
 R.
Pa
dh
an
da
n
K.
P.
Tabel 1 ( dilanjutkan).
Pr
Penulis Tujuan Negara dan periode Metodologi Temuan empiris Saluran/komentar ab
sampel hee
Gu dkk. (2020) Aktivitas ekonomi Cina Perbedaan perbedaan Industri manufaktur Perusahaan kecil
mengalami lebih
banyak
01/12/2019– Metode efek negatif tertinggi Penurunan 30%
31/01/2020
Statistik Deskriptif
Choi (2020) Dampak Kita Analisis Koherensi Mempengaruhi Lebih mempengaruhi
ketidakpastian Wavelet volatilitas sektoral daripada global
ekonomi
Januari 2008–Mei lebih dari finansial krisis keuangan
2020 global
Krisis
Shen dkk. (2020) Kinerja perusahaan Cina Pencocokan Skor Negatif Asosiasi antara
Kecenderungan pandemi
T1: 2014–2020 Regresi dan kinerja yang tegas
22 Yu dkk. (2020) Partisipasi angkatan 134 Negara Regresi Negatif Penghindaran
6
kerja ketidakpastian yang
tinggi
1970–2015 Respons Impulse Indeks
Xiong dkk. (2020) Reaksi pasar Cina Studi Acara Efek yang lebih intens Efek tergantung pada
pada keuangan
23/01/2020– Korelasi industri dengan struktur industri
30/04/2020 kerentanan terhadap
virus dan kelembagaan
tinggi
Investor
Erdem (2020) Reaksi investor 75 Negara Statistik Deskriptif Dampak negatif pada Tergantung pada An
terhadap hal yang saham tingkat kebebasan ali
berbeda sis
pengumuman tanggal 20/01/2020– Regresi Panel Kembali. da
30/04/2020
Pengalaman negara n
yang lebih bebas Ke
volatilitas yang lebih bij
kecil ak
Wang dkk. (2020) Pasar Asuransi Tiongkok, 29 Provinsi Regresi Panel Negatif Pentingnya tingkat an
sosial Ek
T1: 2018–2020 Uji Varians Rata-Rata asuransi keamanan dan on
pribadi om
Vidya dan Prabheesh Memperdagangkan 15 Negara Analisis Jaringan Pengurangan drastis Penurunan perdagangan i
(2020) keterhubungan dan Perdagangan hingga 70
perkiraan perdagangan 2016Q4–2020Q1 Jaringan Saraf Buatan Perubahan struktur Desember 2020 (2
di masa depan perdagangan 02
Perdagangan China
1)
sebagai pusat
tidak dialterkan 22

Liu dkk. (2020b) Variabel makro- Cina Analisis Waktu- Siklus bisnis dan Makroekonomi yang
 finansial dan Frekuensi keuangan di luar biasa
ketahanannya 1993Q1–2020Q1 Analisis Wavelet fase kontraksi kebijakan yang
diperlukan
Liu dkk. (2020c) Konsumsi rumah Cina Statistik Ringkasan Penurunan signifikan Rumah tangga pedesaan
tangga dalam kurang terpengaruh
Keuangan Rumah GARCH konsumsi rumah
Tangga China tangga
Survei
Ertugrul dkk. (2020) Efek pada diesel Turki Turki Model Tipe GARCH Pola volatilitas tinggi Volatilitas dinamis dari
waktu ke waktu
volatilitas konsumsi 01/01/2014–
15/06/2020

(dilanjutkanpada halaman berikutnya)

 R.
Pa
dh
an
da
n
K.
P.
Pr
ab
hee
Tabel 1 ( dilanjutkan).
Penulis Tujuan Negara dan periode Metodologi Temuan empiris Saluran/komentar
sampel
Iyke(2020c) Dampak terhadap 5 Negara Analisis Regresi Dampak positif Ketidakpastian
kebijakan ekonomi terhadap ekonomi kebijakan yang lebih
tinggi
Ketidakpastian 1990M01–2020M09 ketidakpastian
kebijakan
31/12/2019–01/09/2020
Haldar dan Sethi Efek demografis, 10 Negara Regresi Binomial Demografis dan Pelaksanaan berkala
(2020) Negatif pemerintah
sosial ekonomi dan 15/03/2020–30/09/2020 kebijakan yang Penguncian
publik signifikan
Respon Penentu
Prabheesh (2020) Pengembalian saham India Uji akar Unit Narayan- Kausalitas Lebih banyak eksposur
22 dan portofolio Popp unidirectional dari ke portofolio
7 aliran kausalitas 02/01/2019–30/09/2020 Tes Kausalitas Toda– aliran portofolio ke volatilitas aliran
Yamamoto pengembalian saham
Chen dkk. (2020b) Dampak pada aliran Samoa Uji akar Unit Narayan- Peningkatan Ditolak dari AS
masuk pengiriman Popp pengiriman uang dari
uang
ke Samoa 2012M05–2020M07 Gregorius-Hansen Australia dan Selandia
Cointegrasi Baru
dan VECM
Appiah-Otoo (2020) Dampak terhadap Cina Statistik Deskriptif Peningkatan Respon positif di
kredit domestik dikonfirmasi keduanya
1 Januari 2020–30 Juni Regresi case/death jangka panjang dan An
2020 meningkatkan jangka pendek ali
Fungsi Respons Kredit sis
Impulse da
Bauer dan Weber Mengevaluasi tenaga Jerman Regresi Diff-in-diff 60% peningkatan dari Matikan peningkatan n
(2020) kerja jangka pendek pekerjaan Ke
dampak pasar DARI 13/03/2020–14/04/2020 menjadi pengangguran pengangguran 117.000 bij
COVID-19 ak
Penahanan Orang an
Apergis dan Apergis Peran dalam Kita GARCHX Efek positif terhadap Risiko ekspektasi Ek
(2020b) perjalanan inflasi inflasi inflasi on
ekspektasi dan 02/01/2019–31/07/2020 harapan dan volatilitas om
Volatilitas i
70
Tabel ini mencakup berbagai masalah empiris yang diatasi dalam konteks COVID-19 dengan penulis, cakupan data, temuan empiris, dan saluran / komentar.
(2
Selanjutnya, ini mencakup tabulasi semua makalah yang dikutip pada literatur empiris tentang COVID-19. 02
1)
22
R. Padhan Dan K.P. Ekonomi Analisis Dan Kebijakan 70 (2021) 220–
Prabheesh 237

Gbr. 1. Indeks saham dari negara-negara yang paling terdampak.

Angka ini menunjukkan plot indeks saham negara-negara yang paling terdampak selama COVID-19. Ini mencakup indeks saham untuk
Argentina, Brasil, Kolombia, India, Meksiko, Peru, Rusia, Afrika Selatan, Spanyol, dan Amerika Serikat. Garis biru menunjukkan pembagian data
PeRiod menjadi dua seperti pra dan selama periode COVID-19. Kita dapat mengamati bahwa indeks saham mengalami volatilitas tinggi selama
periode COVID-19. Periode tersebut berlangsung dari 1 Januari 2019, hingga 17 September 2020. Data saham dikumpulkan from Database CEIC.
(Untuk interpretasi referensi ke warna dalam legenda gambar ini, pembaca dirujuk ke versi web artikel ini.)

4. COVID-19 dan nilai tukar

Nilai tukar sangat penting untuk menjaga stabilitas eksternal perekonomian. Karena nilai tukar secara
langsung mengaitkan dengan neraca perdagangan, daya saing ekspor, utang luar negeri, dan aliran modal,
mempertahankan nilai tukar yang stabil adalah salah satu perhatian utama pembuat kebijakan. Selama periode pandemi

10
R. Padhan Dan K.P. Ekonomi Analisis Dan Kebijakan 70 (2021) 220–
Prabheesh 237
ini, sebagian besar ekonomi telahmengesampingkan volatilitas nilai tukar dan depresiasi mata uang karena arus modal
keluar dan sentimen pasar. Misalnya, sentimen negatif yang terkait

11
 Gbr. 1. (lanjutnya).

dengan COVID-19 secara substansial mempengaruhi pasar keuangan (Ali dkk. , 2020; Fang dan Zhang, 2020;
Fu dan Shen, 2020; Narayan, 2020c; Garg dan Prabheesh, 2021; Rai dan Garg, 2021) dan memiliki dayaprediktif yang
lebih baik atas volatilitas nilai tukar daripada pengembalian (Iyke, 2020b). Iyke (2020b) menegaskan bahwa wabah
COVID-19 dikaitkan dengan informasi berharga dan dapat digunakan secara efektif untuk memprediksi pengembalian nilai
tukar dan volatilitas. Nilai tukar dan depresiasi mata uang yang bergejolak dapat be memberikan efek yang merugikan
pada harga saham, aliran modal masuk, defisit transaksi berjalan, kewajiban ULN, dan ketidakstabilan keuangan.
Ara. 2 menggambarkan volatilitas yang berlebihan dalam nilai tukar sebagian besar negara yang terkena dampak
pandemi. Semua ekonomi mengalami depresiasi mata uang segera setelah merebaknya COVID-19 hingga pertengahan
April. Setelah itu, sebagian besar nilai tukar ekonomisecara signifikanmembaik, tidak termasuk dari Argentina. Lebih
khusus lagi, Spanyol menyaksikan pemulihan yang luar biasa dalam nilai tukarnya setelah pertengahan Mei. Namun,
angka tersebut menggambarkan bahwa tidak ada nilai tukar negara-negara ini yang mencapai tingkat pra-krisis mereka
pada akhir September, menyiratkan dampak buruk pandemi pada nilai tukar ekonomi.
5. COVID-19 dan harga minyak

Guncangan pasokan dan permintaan yang negatif dapat diamati di pasar minyak selama periode COVID-19.
Berkurangnya ketersediaan tenaga kerja, pembatasan perjalanan, dan gangguan dalam transportasi dan bisnis, secara
langsung dan tidak langsung, mengakibatkan guncangan pasokan negatif. Guncangan permintaan negatif
disebabkan karena kesulitan ekonomi, dan terganggunya rantai nilai global, mengurangi permintaan minyak (Vidya
dan Prabheesh, 2020). Guncangan negatif pada minyak ini dianggap dapat mengurangi konsumsi dan investasi global.
Banyak penelitian telah mengatasi efek COVID-19 pada harga minyak. Misalnya, penurunan harga minyak akibat
pandemi berdampak buruk pada kinerja sektor energi (Apergis and Apergis, 2020a; Devpura, 2020; Devpura dan
Narayan, 2020; Fu dan Shen, 2020; Gil-Alana dan Monge, 2020; Huang dan Zheng, 2020; Kartal, 2020; Narayan,
2020a; Polemis dan Soursou, 2020; Qin dkk. , 2020b). Fu and Shen (2020) menegaskan bahwa industri energi yang terkena
dampak negatifCOVID-19. Salisu dan Adediran (2020)mengamati bahwa ketidakpastian pasar dapat memprediksivolatilitas
pasar energi. Devpura dan Narayan (2020) dan Narayan (2020a) mengamati bahwa kasus COVID-19 dan korban jiwa
meningkatkan volatilitas harga minyak dan sebagian besar harga minyak yang terkena dampak. Huang dan Zheng
(2020)mengindikasikan perubahan struktural dalamionship relat antara sentimen investor dan minyak mentah
berjangka. Gil-Alana dan Monge (2020) menyatakan tidak efisiennya pasar minyak akibat pandemi. Selanjutnya,
COVID-19 mempengaruhi dinamikaantara pasar minyak dan saham. Misalnya, Liu dkk.
(2020a)mengidentifikasi hubungan negatif antara pengembalian minyak dan saham. Prabheesh dkk. (2020a,b)
mengamati hubungan positif untuk negara-negara pengikat minyak bersihdan porting eks minyak.
Gambar. 3 menggambarkan bahwa harga minyak mentah mulai menurun selama merebaknya COVID-19 mulai 31
Desember 2019, hingga minggu terakhir April 2020. Ini adalah cemarat waktu dalam sejarah bahwa − harga minyak
menjadi negatif (US$ 36.98) pada bulan April Ke-20, 2020. Meskipun Tje Pemulihan Dapat Menjadi Diamati Dari Mei
Tje Harga Hsa Tidak Mencapai Tje pra-COVID Periode Tingkat.
Minyak mentah adalah salah satu bahan utama dari proses produksi. Penurunan harga minyak dapat
mengurangi biaya produksi dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi (Filis, 2010; Sadorsky, 1999) dan
mempengaruhi kebijakan moneter (Prabheesh dan Rahman, 2019). Dengan demikian, turunnya harga minyak
menguntungkan bagi negara-negara importir minyak bersih. Sebaliknya, negara-negararting net-oil expo
menyaksikan penurunan pendapatan minyak yang parah, anjloknya pasar saham, dan volatilitas pasar keuangan.
Penurunan pendapatan minyak mengakibatkan surplus ekspor bersih tidak mencukupi sehingga
menyebabkan transaksi berjalan tidak berkelanjutan (Garg dan Prabheesh, 2017, 2020)
dan kepailitan(Garg dan Prabheesh, 2018). Negara-negararting yang terekspos minyak mengalami resesi tajam selama
periode COVID-19, seperti Rusia (−6,6%), Arab Saudi (−6,8%), dan Nigeria (−5,4%).

12
6. COVID-19 dan saran kebijakan

Bagian ini membahas relevansi empat opsi kebijakan untuk memitigasi dampak COVID-19: kebijakan moneter,
regulasi makroprudensial, kebijakan fiskal, dan koordinasi kebijakan.

Gbr. 2. Nilai tukar negara yang paling terdampak.

Angka ini menunjukkan plot nilai tukar negara yang paling terdampak selama COVID-19. Ini mencakup indeks saham untuk Argentina, Brasil,
Kolombia, India, Meksiko, Peru, Rusia, Afrika Selatan, Spanyol, dan Amerika Serikat. Periode tersebut berlangsung dari J anuary 1, 2019,
hingga 17 September 2020. Data nilai tukar dikumpulkan dari Database CEIC. Garis biru menunjukkan pembagian periode data menjadi dua, seperti
pra-COVID-19 dan periode COVID-19. Nilai tukar AS tidak dianggap sebagai mata uang patokan untuk semua ekonomi lainnya. Kita dapat
mengamati bahwa semua ekonomi menyaksikan depresiasi mata uang selama periode COVID-19. Sebagian besar mata uang mengalami
depresiasi hingga pertengahan April,sebuah nd menunjukkan peningkatan yang lebih lambat setelahnya. Namun, nilai tukar semua ekonomi
menyaksikan volatilitas tinggi kecuali Argentina. Argentina mengindikasikan kenaikan tajam dalam nilai tukarnya, menyiratkan depresiasi
berkelanjutan Peso Argentina terhadap dolar pada periode COVID-19. Dalam hal pemulihan, semua mata uang ekonomi lainnya membaik
tetapi jauh tertinggal daripada periode pra-COVID. Anehnya, Spanyol menunjukkan apresiasi yang luar biasa setelah periode pertengahan Mei. (Untuk
interpretasi dari erences ref untuk mewarnai dalam legenda gambar ini, pembaca dirujuk ke versi web artikel ini.)

13
6.1. Kebijakan moneter

Kebijakan moneter dapat memainkan peran penting dalam memitigasi efek COVID-19. Namun, sifat adopsi
kebijakan moneter dapat berbeda di seluruh perekonomian dalam hal kondisi ekonomi mereka selama pandemi yang sedang
berlangsung. Hofmann dkk. (2020) berpendapat bahwa penerapan kebijakan moneter oleh negara-negara
emerging economies dalam menanggapi pandemi COVID-19 mungkin tidak efektif karena volatilitas nilai tukar dan
aliran modal yang berlebihan. Namun, muncul

14
 Gbr. 2. (lanjutnya).

Gbr. 3. Tren harga minyak.

Angka tersebut memplot harga minyak mulai 2 Januari 2019, hingga 15 September 2020. WTI adalah singkatan West Texas Intermediate.
Harga minyak harian didasarkan pada West Texas Intermediate dan dikumpulkan dari Energy Information Administration. Garis
biru menunjukkan pembagian periode data menjadi dua seperti periode pra dan COVID-19. Kita dapat mengamati bahwa
harga minyak selama periode COVID-19 lebih rendah dari periode pra-COVID-19. (Untuk interpretasi referensi ke warna dalam
legenda gambar ini, pembaca dirujuk ke versi web artikel ini.)

ekonomi dapat mengadopsi kombinasi penargetan inflasi dan alat makroprudensial serta akumulasi cadangan
forex sebagai kerangka kebijakan mereka untuk mengatasi perubahan aliran modal dan nilai tukar (BIS, 2019).
Mengingat kerangka kebijakan ini memfasilitasi stabilitas keuangan, ekonomi berkembang can mengadopsi kombinasi
kebijakan yangsama untuk menanggapi ketidakstabilan yang disebabkan oleh pandemi. Penargetan inflasi dapat membantu
memitigasi dampak nilai tukar terhadap inflasi. Alat makroprudensial mendorong ketahanan sistem keuangan.
Bijihlebih lanjut, akumulasi cadangan dapat membantu menyerap guncangan dan mengurangi tekanan keuangan pada
ekonomi berkembang karena bank sentral mampu menangani depresiasi mata uang, risiko default pada pinjaman
eksternal,dan arus modal keluar (Hofmann dkk. , 2020; Prabheesh, 2013). Ekonomi dengan cadangan forex besar akan
dapat mengelola depresiasi mata uang mereka dengan mengintervensig di pasar valuta asing selama pandemi.
Dalam konteks ini, bank sentral ekonomi berkembang harus mengadopsi kebijakan moneter dengan
mempertimbangkan likuiditas domestik dan kondisi pasar valuta asing.
Karena COVID-19 dikaitkan dengan inflasi yang lebih rendah di negara maju, kebijakan moneter ekspansi dapat
memfasilitasi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi dan investasi yang lebih tinggi di sektor produktif. Namun,
kebijakan moneter ekonomi maju dan berkembang tidak independen satu sama lain. Kebijakan moneter global
dan guncangannya berperan dominan dalam menentukan kondisi makroekonomi domestik dan kebijakan
moneter. Dengan demikian, penerapan kebijakan moneter di negara maju mempengaruhi keputusan kebijakan moneter
negara berkembang (Prabheesh dan Vidya, 2018; Shareef dan Prabheesh, 2020). Selanjutnya, peran perdagangan dan
integrasi keuangan menumbuhkan transmisi kejut dan menciptakan ketakutan akan penularan keuangan (Padhan dan
Prabheesh, 2019). Oleh karena itu, efektivitas kebijakan moneter domestik akan bergantung pada transmisi kejut dari
negara maju. Dalam konteks ini, penerapan kebijakan moneter dengan langkah makroprudensial dapat
meningkatkan efektivitas kebijakan n ekonomi.

15
6.2. Regulasi makroprudensial

Mempertimbangkan ketidakstabilan keuangan akibat COVID-19, kebijakan makroprudensial dapat membantu menjaga
stabilitas dan mengurangi risiko sistematis dalam sistem keuangan. Dengan demikian, berbagai langkah
makroprudensial dapat meningkatkan
ketahanan terhadap guncangan keuangan global. Misalnya, langkah-langkah ini termasuk alat yang meningkatkan
modal bank dan likuiditas, membatasi eksposur valuta asing, dan mencegah kredit berisiko (Drehmann dkk. , 2020;
Restoy, 2019). Alat-alat ini memiliki efek heterogen dalam mengurangi guncangan keuangan global memukul economy.
Selain itu, regulasi makroprudensial mengurangi sensitivitas kredit domestik terhadap guncangan keuangan global.
Klaim ini sejalan dengan hipotesis bahwa neraca bank yang lebih kuat menyebabkan pasokan kredit yang lebih stabil.
Selain itu, regulasi makroprudential menstabilkan nilai tukar nominal dan riil sebagai sistem keuangan yang lebih
aman yang mengurangi volatilitas premi mata uang (IMF, 2020).
Regulasi makroprudensial akan membantu mengendalikan fluktuasi nilai tukar dan aliran modal yang dapat
merusak stabilitas keuangan. Dalam situasi ini, kebijakan moneter bersama dengan regulasi makroprudensial dapat
mengurangi efek negatif dari COVID-19 yangmendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebihtinggi. Dengan demikian,
saluran yang mungkin dapat menjadi adopsi kebijakan moneter countercyclical bersama dengan regulasi
makroprudensial dalam menanggapi guncangan keuangan global. Pada tingkat regulasi makroprudensial yang
lebih tinggi, bank-bank sentral merespons lebihkontra-siklonik dengan menurunkan suku bunga kebijakan untuk menjaga
stabilitas nilai tukar dan arus modal keluar (IMF, 2020).

6.3. Kebijakan fiskal

Kebijakan fiskal dapat secara efektif melindungi orang, menstabilkan permintaan, dan memfasilitasi pemulihan di
seluruh perekonomian selama pandemi yang sedang berlangsung serta setelah peristiwa ini. Mempertimbangkan
kelangsungan lockdown di seluruh perekonomian, kebijakan fiskal should ditampung untuk layanan kesehatan
untuk memberikan garis hidup darurat untuk melindungi orang (Chakrabortydan Thomas, 2020). Sementara penguncian
mereda, kebijakan fiskal harus ditujukan untuk dukungan rumah tangga dan perusahaan untuk mengurus informalitas
ekonomi. Selain itu, langkah-langkah dukungan ketenagakerjaan dapat membantu mendorong kembalinya
pekerjaan dengan aman danmemfasilitasihift struktural untuk pemulihan ekonomi yang cepat setelah pandemi. Setelah
pandemi melambat, stimulus fiskal akan sangat penting untuk investasi publik, sistem layanan kesehatan, dan
infrastruktur fisik dan digital. Dalam hal ruang fiskal terbatas, ekonomi harus menghasilkan pendapatan,
meningkatkan pengeluaran, dan mempromosikan investasi produktif. Semua langkah kebijakan perlu diatur dalam
kerangka fiskal jangka menengah dengan manajemen transparan untuk memitigasi risiko fiskal (IMF, 2020).

6.4. Koordinasi kebijakan

Kebutuhan akan upaya domestik maupun global dirasakan untuk memitigasi dampak COVID-19. Dalam konteks
perubahan kebijakan global, World Economic Outlook (Juni 2020) telah menganggap effects COVID-19 sebagai ''A Crisis
Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery'' dan mencantumkan beberapa tindakan kebijakan untuk mengurangi
dampak buruknya.

1. Database Monitor Fiskal Langkah-langkah Fiskal Negara (Juni 2020) mengumumkan sejumlah $ 11 triliun untuk
langkah-langkah fiskal di seluruh dunia.
2. Menurut Laporan Stabilitas Keuangan Global (Juni 2020), bank sentral utama mengalami kenaikan likuiditas dan
7
meminjambiaya ing. Beberapa negara berkembang mengadopsi pelonggaran kuantitatif untuk pertama kalinya,
sedangkan beberapa negara maju meningkatkan skala pembelian aset. Portofolio mengalir ke negara-
negara berkembang yang didirikan kembali
setelah terendah selamaFebruari-Maret, dan asuransi obligasi mata uang menjadi lebih kuat untuk ekonomi dengan
peringkat kredit yang kuat. Selanjutnya, modifikasi ketentuan pelunasan pinjaman bank dan pelepasan penyangga
permodalan dan likuiditas meningkatkan pasokan kredit secara global.
3. Harga minyak meningkat pada Mei–Juni mendekati harga spot saat ini yang stabil setelah West Texas
Intermediate menyaksikan nilai negatif pada 20 April 2020.
4. Pada pertengahan Juni, beberapa mata uang untuk ekonomi maju dan berkembang melemah secara
substansial. Kebutuhan akan intervensi matic syste ada untuk menghadapi tantangan yang terkait dengan
depresiasi mata uang.

16
Besarnya biaya ekonomi mengharuskan koordinasi kebijakan internasional untuk merespons pandemi.
Chakraborty dan Thomas (2020) menyoroti perlunya lebih banyak kebijakan fiskal- koordinasi kebijakan moneter
untuk mendorong respons kebijakan terhadap COVID-19. Selain itu, perlu adanya koordinasi global dalam
infrastruktur kesehatan dan medis serta kebijakan perdagangan, keuangan, dan makroekonomi.
Dalam rangka upaya kebijakan domestik di tingkat nasional, koordinasi kebijakan di antara trio tersebut, yaitu
kebijakan moneter, makroprudensial, dan fiskal, dapat secara efektif mengurangi dampak COVID-19.
Tujuan utama kebijakan makroprudensial adalah untuk memastikan stabilitas keuangan dan menghindari risiko
sistematis, sedangkan kebijakan moneter bertujuan untuk menjaga stabilitas harga dan mengelola likuiditas.
Tujuan kebijakan fiskal adalah untuk mendorong permintaan agregat dan memfasilitasi penyangga fiskal.
Ketiganya memiliki alat yang berbeda seperti loan-to-value, debt-to-income, dan leverage ratios (kebijakan
makroprudensial); CRR, SLR, suku bunga repo, dan reverse repo rate (kebijakan moneter), serta pajak dan
diskresi
8
langkah-langkah countercyclical (kebijakan fiskal). Masalah ketidakkonsistenan waktu ada antara makroprudensial
dan moneter
kebijakan di bawah tujuan ganda bank sentral untuk mempromosikan stabilitas harga dan keuangan (Ueda dan
Valencia, 2014). Dengan demikian, kedua kebijakan ini dapat digunakan ex-ante dan ex-post secara bersamaan. Sesuai
BASEL III, satu kelompok ekonom mendukung

7 Pelonggaran kuantitatif adalah kebijakan moneter yang tidak konvensional yang diadopsi oleh bank sentral untuk meningkatkan uang
beredar dalam perekonomian.
8 Ketidakkonsistenan waktu adalah situasi di mana preferensi pembuat keputusan berubah dari waktu ke waktu.

17
manfaat utama implementasi, sedangkan kelompok spesialis lain menentang adopsi aturan baru karena biaya
implementasi yang lebih tinggi. Secara meyakinkan, koordinasi kebijakan yang lebih tinggi akan menghasilkan efektivitas
kebijakan yang lebih tinggi dalam mengurangi efek of COVID-19.
Misalkan, jika pembuat kebijakan memiliki motif menerapkan kebijakan moneter untuk mengurangi nilai utang masyarakat
dengan menghasilkan inflasi yang lebih tinggi, turunnya suku bunga riil karena kebijakan moneter yang ekspansin
akan menyebabkan lebih banyak aliran modal keluar dan depresiasi nilai tukar. Dalam hal ini, solusi utamanya adalah
menstabilkan nilai tukar dengan menipisnya cadangan. Sebuah negara harus memiliki cadangan yang cukup
untuk melakukan proses stabilisasi di pasar dunia. Berbeda, dalam hal kebijakan fiskal ekspansi,
peningkatan defisit fiskal mencerminkan peningkatan defisit transaksi berjalan dengan
9
mendukung hipotesis defisit ''kembar. '' Negara harus meminjam atau mencetak uang untuk membiayai
defisit, yang dapat
baik meningkatkan tingkat utang luar negeri atau inflasi. Selain itu, kenaikan utang luar negeri dapat menyebabkan
keberlanjutan utang, sedangkan peningkatan inflasi menyebabkan arus modal keluar karena turunnya suku bunga riil.
Sayadalam konteks ini, alat kebijakan makroprudensial membantu mengurangi biaya intermediasi dan mendukung
stabilitas harga dan keberlanjutan utang. Alat kebijakan makroprudensial, moneter, dan fiskal harus bertindak
bersama dengan mengedepankan koordinasi kebijakan untuk memitigasi biaya COVID-19 dan mencapai stabilitas
harga, stabilitas keuangan, dan tingkat utang yang berkelanjutan. Di bawah sistem keuangan yang kuat, adopsi sirkulasi
likuiditas dan penyangga fiskal dapat mengurangi konsekuensi in periode pasca-pandemi.

7. Tautan yang hilang? Arah ke penelitian di masa depan

Studi yang ada tentang COVID-19 telah mengidentifikasi aspek konsekuensi yang disebabkan oleh pandemi ini.
Namun, mereka memiliki beberapa kekurangan. Pertama, studi yang ada telah berfokus pada efek kebijakan yang
diadopsi pemerintah terhadap COVID-19 atau pada masalah makroekonomi dan keuangan yang disebabkan oleh COVID-
19. Namun, mereka telah gagal melacak keseimbangan antara keduanya. Kebijakan harus dibingkai untuk
mengatasi krisis kesehatan dan masalah makroekonomi dan keuangan secara bersamaan. Kedua, penelitian yang
ada belum membahas latar belakang teoritis krisis kesehatan dan pola kejadian mereka. Akhirnya, meskipun efek
makroekonomi DARI COVID-19 dapat menunjukkan konsekuensi dari krisis kesehatan, penelitian yang ada telah gagal
menentukan variabel penjelasan krisis kesehatan dan saluran transmisi ekonomi di seluruh ekonomi.
Dalam konteks ini, beberapa tautan yang hilang telah diidentifikasi, yang membuka jalan untuk penelitian di masa
depan. Tautan pertama yang hilang adalah keseimbangan antara kebijakan yang diadopsi pemerintah tentang
COVID-19 dan masalah makroekonomi dan keuangan. Menjaga keseimbangan antara kedua kebijakan ini
menantang bagi pembuat kebijakan dan tantangan utama untuk penelitian di masa depan. Tautan kedua yang
hilang adalah tidak adanya backgrteoritis yang ound terhadap krisis kesehatan dan pola kejadian. Pola
terjadinya krisis keuangan tidak pernah dapat dibandingkan dengan krisis kesehatan, menyerukan bagian terpisah
dari teori untuk menjelaskan saluran ekonomi krisis kesehatan. Mengingat bahwa pola terjadinya krisis kesehatan berbeda,
kemajuan model teoritis pada krisis kesehatan bisa sangat penting untuk menjelaskan pola terjadinya
pandemi. Tautan ketiga berputar di sekitar variabel penjelasan krisis kesehatan dan identifikasi saluran transmisi
ekonomi. Analisis komparatif denganith pandemi sebelumnya tidak bisa lagi menjelaskan variabel penjelasan dan
saluran transmisi karena situasi dan jenis saluran ekonomi yang berbeda. Oleh karena itu, mengidentifikasi variabel
penjelasan krisis kesehatan dan transmisi channel membutuhkan kemajuan serius. Akhirnya, pemodelan saluran
ekonomi akan menjadi tugas yang menakutkan tanpa adanya penjelasan teoritis dari krisis kesehatan. Ini membuka
jalan untuk penelitian masa depan yang lebih besar, dan para peneliti harus fokus pada penyelesaian ide-ide bove.

8. Kesimpulan dan implikasi kebijakan

Pandemi COVID-19 telah menyebabkan kerusakan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya terhadap ekonomi global
dalam hal tol manusia dan konsekuensi ekonomi. Ini menimbulkan tantangan yang lebih besar bagi investor dan
pembuat kebijakan untuk mengurangi konsekuensi dari pandemi ini.
Penelitian ini telah menyoroti efek ekonomi dari COVID-19 dan menekankan opsi kebijakan untuk mengurangi
efeknya. Studi ini menyimpulkan bahwa melalui kebijakanonetary, makroprudensial, dan fiskal dapat secara
independen membantu mengurangi efek; trio gabungan bisa lebih efektif pada periode pasca-pandemi. Oleh
karena itu, diperlukan koordinasi di antara ''trio'', yaitu kebijakan moneter, makroprudensial, dan fiskal, untuk
mengurangi efek COVID-19.
Penelitian ini memiliki beberapa implikasi kebijakan. Ekspansi moneter akan meningkatkan permintaan agregat dan
mendorong perusahaan untuk meningkatkan investasi mereka dari perspektif kebijakan moneter. Dari perspektif fiskal
policy, kebijakan pemerintah seperti investasi perusahaan subsidi dan pengenalan program investasi publik
dapat membantu
Investasi. Secara independen, ekspansi moneter dapat jatuh ke dalam perangkap stagnasi yang didorong

18
 10
ekspektasi,
fundamental pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dengan demikian, teori makroekonomi konvensional harus dimodifikasi sesuai
situasi dan dikoordinasikan untuk mempertahankan keseimbangan permintaan-pasokan agregat secara efektif. Rupanya,
konvensional

9 Hipotesis defisit ''twin'' menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan antara defisit fiskal dan transaksi berjalan.
10 Hal ini mengacu pada situasi di mana inflasi dan pengangguran tetap tinggi, sedangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tetap rendah. Kebijakan moneter
konvensional yang beroperasi di batas nol lebih rendah tidak akan efektif untuk menangkal penurunan permintaan. Hal ini pada
akan menyebabkan turunnya lapangan kerja, investasi, dan aktivitas ekonomi. Ini
akhirnya akan mengakibatkan ekspektasi pesimistis
yang memuaskan diri dari pertumbuhan once yang lemah, yang mengarah pada ekspektasi didorong perangkap stagflation.

19
 Tabel A.1
Jejak sejarah tentang pandemi.
Sumber: Alfani dan Murphy (2017) dan Jorda dkk. (2020).
Peristiwa pandemi Mulai tahun Akhir Kematian
tahun
Kematian Hitam 1331 1353 75,000,00
0
Wabah Italia 1623 1632 280,000
Wabah Besar Sevilla 1647 1652 2,000,000
Wabah Besar London 1665 1666 100,000
Wabah Besar Marseille 1720 1722 100,000
Pandemi Kolera Pertama 1816 1826 100,000
Pandemi Kolera Kedua 1829 1851 100,000
Rusia Cholera Pandemi 1852 1860 1,000,000
Pandemi Flu Global 1889 1890 1,000,000
Pandemi Kolera Keenam 1899 1923 800,000
Ensefalitis Pandemi Lesu 1915 1926 1,500,000
Flu Spanyol 1918 1920 100,000,0
00
Flu Asia 1957 1958 2,000,000
Flu Hong Kong 1968 1967 1,000,000
Pandemi H1N1 2009 2010 203,000

Tabel ini mencakup catatan sejarah peristiwa pandemi besar dengan setidaknya 100.000
kematian. Kita dapat mengamati bahwa Flu Spanyol adalah yang terbesar dalam hal kematian,
diikuti oleh Black Death.

kebijakan ekonomi makro tidak dapat dibatasi hanya untuk langkah-langkah konvensional. Ini harus melengkapi
secara keseluruhan
kebijakan sosial seperti pendekatan pemerintah 11 untuk menghadapi darurat kesehatan yang
disebabkan oleh COVID-19. Kebijakan makroekonomi konvensional perlu diatur ke dalam langkah-langkah
bantuan, kebijakan pemulihan, dan langkah-langkah koordinasi internasional.
Riset ke depan harus fokus pada efek COVID-19 terhadap arus modal, nilai tukar, dan berbagai sektor
perekonomian. Ini akan menjadi tugas yang menantang fatau pembuat kebijakan untuk menghadapi krisis kesehatan atau
untuk memperbaiki masalahmakroekonomi dan keuangan yang ditimbulkan oleh COVID-19. Selain itu, ada ruang
lingkup yang lebih besar untuk penelitian di masa depan untuk memeriksa bagaimana ekonomi maju dan
berkembang berfungsi dalam iniasipandemi dan mengadopsi kebijakan untuk menghadapi krisis kesehatan serta
masalah makroekonomi dan keuangan.

Deklarasi kepentingan bersaing

Para penulis menyatakan bahwa mereka tidak memiliki kepentingan keuangan yang bersaing atau hubungan
pribadi yang dapat muncul untuk mempengaruhi pekerjaan yang dilaporkan dalam makalah ini.

Pengakuan

Penelitian ini tidak menerima hibah khusus dari lembagapendanaan di sektor publik, komersial, atau nirlaba. Versi
sebelumnya dari makalah ini dipresentasikan pada Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking International
Conference ke-14, Bali, Indonesia (Webinar).

Lampiran A. Pandemi: Sebuah tive perspechistoris

Pandemi yang paling awal diketahui, Black Death pada tahun 1331, dianggap sebagai pandemi paling
mahal, dengan 75 juta korban jiwa dari 450 juta di dunia. Flu Spanyol pada tahun 1918 yang terjadi selama abad ke-20
diklasifikasikan sebagai ''parah'',diikuti oleh flu Asia pada tahun 1957 dan flu Hong Kong pada tahun 1968. Pandemi
H1N1 pada tahun 2009 adalah pandemi pertama pada abad ke-21, dengan lebih dari 2 juta korban jiwa. Dari tabel di
bawah ini, kita dapat mengamati bahwa setiap pandemi telah mengakibatkan jutaan korban jiwa (lihat Tabel A.1).

Lampiran B. COVID-19: Pengalaman baru

T dia COVID-19, pandemi ke-2 abad ke-21, telah mendorong semua perhatian pembuat kebijakan dan
20
ditetapkan untuk menjadi pandemi paling menghancurkan yang telah disaksikan dunia sejauh ini. Dalam
konteks pandemi sejarah, Ferguson dkk. (2020) menganggap COVID-19 sebagai pandemi paling serius sejak flu
Spanyol pada tahun 1918. Tidak adanya penemuan farmasi akan berkontribusi pada korban tewas dan dapat
menjadikan COVID-19 sebagai peristiwa pandemi paling dahsyat di abad ke-21 (lihat Tabel B.1).
Hingga 17 September 2020, COVID-19 telah mempengaruhi 213 negara dengan 937.391 korban jiwa dan 29.737.453
kasus terkonfirmasi dilaporkan oleh WHO. Tabel berikut menunjukkan 10 negara dengan dampak terburuk dengan
kasus terbanyak karena COVID-19.

11 Ini mengacu pada semua kebijakan sosial dan ekonomi seperti perlindungan sosial, manajemen perkotaan, komunikasi publik, dan
pasar keuangan dan barang di bawah atap yang sama.

21
 Tabel B.1
Statistik tentang COVID-19 dan peringkat negara.
Sumber: Dasbor darurat WHO.
Negara Kasus yang No. korban jiwa Peringkat 1 Peringk
dikonfirmasi at 2
Amerika Serikat 6,530,324 194,434 1 1
India 5,118,253 83,198 2 3
Brasil 4,382,263 133,119 3 2
Rusia 1,085,281 19,061 4 12
Peru 738,020 30,927 5 7
Kolombia 728,590 23,288 6 11
Meksiko 676,487 71,678 7 4
Afrika Selatan 653,444 15,705 8 13
Spanyol 614,360 30,243 9 9
Argentina 577,338 11,910 10 15

Tabel ini mencakup tidak. kasus dan kematian yang dikonfirmasi karena COVID-19 hingga 17 September 2020.
Peringkat 1 dilakukan atas dasar no. kasus yang dikonfirmasi, sedangkan peringkat 2 didasarkan pada no.
korban jiwa akibat penyakit ini.

Tabel menunjukkan bahwa AS mengalami efek terbesar di dunia dan menempati peringkat pertama dalam hal
kasus dan kematian yang dikonfirmasi. India menjadi negara kedua yang paling terdampak dalam hal kasus yang
dikonfirmasi dan ketiga dalam hal korban jiwa. Brasil menempati peringkat ketiga dalam hal kasus yang dikonfirmasi
dan kedua dalam hal korban jiwa. Selanjutnya, dari 10 negara paling terdampak dalam hal kasus yang dikonfirmasi, 6
berada di peringkat dalam hal korban jiwa. Anehnya, China tidak menempati tempat apa pun dalam peringkat baik
dalam hal kasus yang dikonfirmasi atau korban jiwa, menunjukkan kondisi COVID yang membaik dan fasilitas
medis. Ekonomi utama seperti Amerika Serikat, India, Rusia, Meksiko, dan Spanyol menyaksikan tingkat
keparahan COVID-19 dan mungkin mengalami lebih banyak konsekuensi ekonomi di masa depan. Di antara 10 ekonomi
teratas, ekonomi utama seperti Amerika Serikat (ekonomi tengah), Rusia (ekonomi pengekspor minyak), dan
India(salah satu raksasa Asia dan pasar besar) akan menyebabkan lebih banyak penurunan produksi, investasi,
dan konsumsi, yang mengakibatkan penurunan ekonomi global.

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