REE187180 DOI: 10.

2118/187180-PA Date: 31-October-19 Stage: Page: 1360 Total Pages: 11

Rate-Transient Analysis Based on the

Power-Law Behavior for Permian Wells
W.-C. Chu, N. D. Pandya, and R. W. Flumerfelt, Pioneer Natural Resources, and C. Chen, Kappa Engineering

Summary
In unconventional reservoirs, the application of many rate-transient-analysis (RTA) techniques relies heavily on the identification and
analysis of the linear flow regime, which is characterized by a 1/ 2-slope on a log-log plot of Dp vs. t. Through our analysis of more than
400 wells with downhole pressure gauges in the Wolfcamp Shale of the Permian Basin, we observed power-law behavior, but with
slopes much different from 1/ 2 over long periods of time. In many cases, the duration of the straight line with a slope different from 1/ 2
lasts for years, without ever converging to 1/ 2. In some cases, the slope changes over time but is rarely the characteristic 1/ 2-slope
observed over long periods. Rate forecasts would be in error if we were to assume that the slope would converge to a 1/ 2-slope at a
later time.
In this work, we present examples of Permian Wolfcamp horizontal wells each with a measured bottomhole pressure (BHP) to dem-
onstrate the characteristic power-law behavior with slopes different from 1/ 2. Power-law behaviors are typical in heterogeneous systems
and are identified using the Chow pressure group (CPG).
On the basis of the concept of power-law behavior, we developed a workflow to analyze single-phase rate-transient data with high-
quality measured BHP. Ultimately, the new workflow for RTA uses power-law characteristics to evaluate well performance and is a com-
plementary tool to traditional methods such as the Arps decline-curve analysis (Arps 1945). In this paper, we outline a power-law analysis
workflow scheme and demonstrate that the CPG is a convenient means for identifying the exponents of straight lines. In addition, we pres-
ent case studies to demonstrate the application of this technique to predict the long-term well performance from choked-back wells, to
evaluate long-term performance changes associated with offset fracture hits, and to estimate the hyperbolic-decline-curve b-factor.

Introduction
For convenience, and also because of the speed and simplicity that it offers, RTA is the preferred method for evaluating most shale
wells. Although the wells and the reservoirs they drain are complex in many respects, theoretical expectations suggest that early-time
responses of horizontal wells produced through multiple fractures act as if the well is produced through a single fracture with an effec-
tive length equal to the sum of the individual fracture lengths (Raghavan et al. 1997). This is the norm as long as interference effects
are negligibly small, even if the properties of the reservoir drained by each fracture are different (Chen and Raghavan 2013). Because
of the contrasts between the fracture permeability and the formation permeability, unusually long production trends (rate or pressure)
are usually characterized by straight lines of a slope of 1/ 2 on log-log coordinates, as shown by Wattenbarger et al. (1998), Bello and
Wattenbarger (2010), Duong (2011), and Clarkson and Qanbari (2015). Today, although wells drain 2D systems, the initial approach is
to work with a fractured well that drains a reservoir in the form of a linear channel.
When evaluating wells in the Wolfcamp Shale of the Permian Basin, we encountered slopes much different from the expected
norm—1/ 2. This suggested to us that perhaps the reservoir possessed unusual features that were yet to be identified. The Wolfcamp
Shale is a heterogeneous system and some of its salient features were discussed by Mohan et al. (2013). Nonclassical responses were
also reported by Thomas et al. (2005), in contexts other than shales.
To account for the influence of heterogeneity in both fissures and the matrix, Raghavan and Chen (2017) developed a model that
considers transient flow under subdiffusion toward a horizontal well that produces from a reservoir with multiple fractures. The reser-
voir is a transient double-porosity model with subdiffusion considered in both the fissures and the matrix. As the conclusions
drawn from their earlier works on anomalous diffusion pointed out, Raghavan and Chen (2017) found that power-law behavior is the
norm for most flow regimes identified in such a system, except for Flow Regime 3, the infinite-acting and pseudosteady flows in the
fracture and matrix systems, respectively. Raghavan and Chen (2018) summarized the exponents of all the flow regimes of the model in
a table.
In the course of this work, we found the procedure suggested by Chow (1952) to be particularly useful for diagnostic purposes. His
method involves considering the ratio Dp=ð2Dp0 Þ, the CPG, where Dp is the pressure drop at time t and Dp0 is the corresponding loga-
rithmic derivative. Example applications in the form of type curves are found in Ozkan (1988) and some of the advantages of the
method are found in Raghavan (1993). Invariably, as in all studies, throughout this work we used the rate-normalization procedure of
Winestock and Colpitts (1965), as well as the time-transformation technique of Palacio and Blasingame (1993), to address variations in
rates. One salient feature of our work was the extensive use of measured BHPs. As a result of this expensive step, significant advantages
accrued, particularly as we applied the CPG. BHP measurements often differ significantly from estimates obtained through wellhead-
pressure measurements and extrapolations thereof. As noted by Scott et al. (2015), using wellhead pressures or making low-frequency
sporadic measurements and using offline analyses to estimate BHPs provide “incomplete, if not inaccurate, snapshots of the dynamic
production environments.”
We present three Permian Wolfcamp Shale examples with measured BHPs to minimize any complexities in data quality. The first
case illustrates the workflow to select the appropriate diagnostic plot, the application of the CPG for flow-regime identification, and the
power-law decline-curve analysis. Case 2 shows the impact of choke management, cleanup, and extended shut-ins. Case 3 shows the
effect of fracture hits on the flow-regime identification. The second and third examples illustrated complexities that arise as a result of
unavoidable operational issues (Clarkson and Beierle 2010). Our findings concerning the advantages of the application of the CPG to
this complex, heterogeneous system producing in a multifluid environment through a complex wellbore were empirical and might be
incorporated into data-mining strategies for shale wells.

Copyright V
C 2019 Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper (SPE 187180) was accepted for presentation at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, USA, 9–11 October 2017, and revised for publication.
Original manuscript received for review 16 April 2018. Revised manuscript received for review 27 March 2019. Paper peer approved 4 April 2019.

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CPG
As previously mentioned, our analysis yielded straight lines on log-log coordinates with exponents significantly different from 1/ 2. No
obvious explanation was evident except that the Wolfcamp Shale is a reservoir within complex geology; the fluid environment involves
the production of three phases through a complex wellbore with the wells under gas lift. Because no obvious theoretical underpinnings
were available to us, we explored various options and, in the course of our investigation, we found the CPG to be an excellent correlat-
ing parameter to decide on the proper exponent if used in a segmented fashion. As already noted, the CPG involves plotting the ratio of
Dp to 2Dp0 . Thus, if the pressure drop Dp is of the form

DpðtÞ ¼ Ata ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð1Þ

where A and a are arbitrary constants, then the expression for the CPG, Dpc ðtÞ, is given as

Dp 1
Dpc ðtÞ  ¼ : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð2Þ
.
2Dp0 2a

For classical diffusion, Dpc ðtÞ ¼ 1. In this paper, we refer to responses given by Eq. 1 as power-law responses.

Reservoir Geology
Scott et al. (2015) presented a type log illustrating the number of Wolfcamp (WFMP) targets that might exist at a single-well location.
The WFMP is approximately 1,750 ft thick in the central part of the Midland Basin and is subdivided into at least four major intervals,
designated the WFMP A, B, C, and D (Mohan et al. 2013). WFMP comprises organic-rich, oil-mature, highly fractured, mixed lithol-
ogy mudstones that were deposited in the medial to distal basin plain. WFMP’s unconventional facies are extensive and contain thin
beds of conventional facies that result in a vast hybrid oil resource play (Deen et al. 2013). Overall, the WFMP formation consists of a
significant heterogeneity, both vertically and laterally across the Midland Basin.

Field Examples
In this section, we present three field examples from Permian Wolfcamp Shale horizontal wells. Real-time measured BHPs were avail-
able for each example considered in this paper. To establish well-defined flow regimes for RTA in a multiphase flow, unconventional
reservoirs with measured flowing BHPs are indispensable. As previously mentioned, Scott et al. (2015) compared calculated BHPs with
measured BHPs in a multiphase-flow environment. The discrepancy between measured and calculated values illustrated that having a
BHP from a downhole gauge eliminates data-quality issues. Furthermore, hourly flowback data are requisite for RTA to define early-
time flow regimes. The following field examples demonstrate that having hourly flowback data in conjunction with measured BHP
enabled us to identify early-time flow regimes. Tables 1 and 2 summarize rock and fluid properties, and well-completion parameters,
for each of the three cases.

Reservoir Reservoir Oil Gravity Initial GOR Porosity, φ Permeability,

Case Pressure (psia) Temperature (°F) (°API) (scf/STB) (fraction) kmatrix (nd)
1 3,400 162 44 1,300 0.096 46
2 6,350 167 42 1,000 0.096 46
3 6,000 162 42 1,000 0.096 46

Table 1—Reservoir and fluid properties. GOR ¼ gas/oil ratio.

Barrels of Water Pounds of Proppant Perforation Cluster

Case Lateral Length (ft) Fluid System Pumped per Foot Pumped per Foot Clusters per Stage Spacing (ft)
1 6,842 Slickwater 30 1,100 5 60
2 9,864 Hybrid 36 1,100 6 60
3 9,301 Hybrid 40 1,100 6 60

Table 2—Well-completion parameters.

Case 1. Fig. 1 shows the production history of oil, gas, and water as well as BHP. Production rates shown include both allocated
(lines) and test (dots) rates. Good agreements between allocated and test rates exist for oil (green) and gas (red) but not for water (blue).
It is a good practice to confirm that the testing program is reasonable by comparing allocated and test rates. After flowing the well natu-
rally for less than a week, we started injecting lift gas to unload both fracturing fluid and oil. After less than 2 months of production, the
flowing BHP was below the bubblepoint pressure.
RTA. With measured BHP, we first performed quality control on oil rates to correct outliers. RTA was performed in the standard
manner; we generated rate-normalized pressure (RNP), its derivative (RNP0 ), the integral of rate-normalized pressure (IRNP), and its
derivative (IRNP0 ), each with respect to material-balance time (MBT) (Palacio and Blasingame 1993) to account for variable oil rates.
The following equations define parameters used in RTA.

pi  pwf ðte Þ
RNP ¼ : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð3Þ
qðte Þ

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d RNPðte Þ
Derivative of RNP; RNP0 ¼ : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð4Þ
d lnðte Þ
QðtÞ
MBT; te ¼ : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð5Þ
qðtÞ
ðte
1 pi  pwf ðsÞ
Integral of RNP; IRNPðte Þ ¼ ds: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð6Þ
te qðsÞ
0

d Iðte Þ
Derivative of IRNP; IRNP0 ðte Þ ¼ : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð7Þ
d lnðte Þ

PBU BHP

Gas

Oil

Water

1 2 3
Year

Fig. 1—Case 1 production history including both allocated (lines) and test (dots) rates for oil, gas, and water. BHP history showed
a pressure buildup (PBU) after 6 months of production.

To identify flow regimes, Uzun et al. (2016) used the log-log diagnostic plot of rate-normalized pressure of the total fluids vs. actual
time. The reason for using the actual time instead of MBT is that the actual-time plot has characteristic features that reflect shorter
events, such as shut-ins. The following analyses used MBT to reduce the data noise. Also, we focused on analyzing oil production
instead of the total fluids, to enhance the decline-curve analysis and production forecast.
Figs. 2 and 3 show log-log plots of rate-normalized pressure and the integral of rate-normalized pressure with their derivatives for
oil vs. MBT. The derivative of the rate-normalized pressure (Fig. 2) is typically noisy and did not allow us to recognize flow regimes
with confidence. But, using the integral of rate-normalized pressure and its derivative (Fig. 3) significantly reduced the noise. Therefore,
in the following, we considered only log-log plots of the integral of rate-normalized pressure as a function of MBT.

100
RNP or RNP ′ [psi/(STB/D)]

RNP
RNP ′

10

0.1
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000
MBT (days)

Fig. 2—Case 1: Diagnostic plot of rate-normalized pressure (RNP) and its corresponding derivative (RNP 0 ) for oil vs. MBT. Noisy
derivatives did not allow us to recognize flow regimes.

Flow-Regime Identification Using CPG. Fig. 3 also illustrates the behavior of CPG (Eq. 2) calculated by combining the integral of
rate-normalized pressures, IRNP, and its corresponding derivative, IRNP0 . In examining the CPG for oil in Fig. 3, we noted the exis-
tence of two horizontal lines. The first, corresponding to the value of 0.94, lasted for approximately 1 week, and the other, correspond-
ing to a value of 0.80 and epitomizing power-law behavior, lasted for more than 3 years of production. The first horizontal stabilization
of the CPG at 0.94 might reflect the region of the generated fracture volume, while the second horizontal stabilization of the CPG at
0.80 likely reveals the influx from the reservoir beyond the generated fracture volume.

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IRNP or IRNP ′ [psi/(STB/D)] or (CPG)

100
IRNP
IRNP ′
CPG
10

0.1
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000
MBT (days)

Fig. 3—Case 1: Diagnostic plot of integral of rate-normalized pressure (IRNP) with its corresponding derivative (IRNP 0 ) and CPG
for oil vs. MBT. Smooth derivative of the integral of RNP illustrated the advantage of adopting the pressure integral approach to
remove noise. The straight-line slope of the IRNP was represented by a constant CPG. There were two regions of power-law func-
tions with CPGs of 0.94 and 0.80 that characterized two distinct flow regimes.

Power-Law Slopes. On the basis of the horizontal lines identified by the CPG (Fig. 3), we determined the corresponding power-law
exponents. Table 3 summarizes the CPG and power-law exponents.

RNP P NR PBU
Power-Law Duration Power-Law Duration
Exponent Slope ∆ of PL, MBT Exponent of PL, ∆t
Case Slope CPG A (a) From 1/2 (%) (days) A (a) b-Factor CPG (hours)
1 0.94 0.42 0.53 6.1 0.2–6 2.35 –0.52 1.92
1 1.25 8–235
2 0.80 0.39 0.62 24.8 15–1600 2.73 –0.64 1.57
2 0.81 0.19 0.62 23.1 180–620 5.10 –0.61 1.64 1.00 60–670
3 0.87 0.32 0.55 10.6 5–570 3.10 –0.55 1.81 1.50 1–156

Table 3—Summary of CPG, power-law function (also PL), percentage difference (D) from the 1/ 2 slope, and duration of MBT for analysis of
RNP; power-law function and corresponding Arps’ b-factor for analysis of PNR; and constant CPG of the duration of the power-law function
for PBU analysis.

History Matching. After determining power-law exponents for oil, we calculated the rate history of oil using measured flowing
BHP. The power-law relationship was
Dp
¼ Axa ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð8Þ
q
where x is the MBT and a is the power-law exponent. By using Q /q for the MBT and rearranging Eq. 8, we determined
1 ðpi  pwf Þ
q1a ¼ : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð9Þ
A Qa
Power-law slopes defined in Fig. 3 indicated that two segments are required to calculate the oil-rate history. By use of the intercept
A and the exponent a, for each power-law relationship in Eq. 9, we calculated the oil-rate history shown in Fig. 4.

Oil
Calc. oil
Rate (STB/D) or BHP (psia)

BHP

1 2 3
Year

Fig. 4—Case 1 history match: On the basis of the two distinct power-law functions identified in Fig. 3 and the measured BHP an
oil-rate history (red) was calculated using Eq. 9 for comparison with the measured oil rate (green).

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Power-Law Decline-Curve Analysis. The Arps (1945) decline-curve method is the method most commonly used for rate analysis
and forecasting in unconventional reservoirs. It is well-known that the Arps method was developed assuming that all measurements
reflect the boundary-dominated flow period. This condition is likely never reached in unconventional reservoirs. However, on compar-
ing the relationship between q and t in the Arps equation, q  1=t1=b , with the power-law equation in Eq. 8, it was clear that b  1=a
[i.e., the Arps decline exponent (b-factor) is the inverse of the power-law exponent a (Seshadri and Mattar 2010)]. It is a common prac-
tice to use a b-factor between 1.0 and 2.0 for unconventional reservoirs.
In this section, we developed and proposed a new decline-curve analysis approach to honor multiple segments of the power-law
behavior. The pressure-normalized rate (PNR) was
qðtÞ
PNR ¼ ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ð10Þ
pi  pwf ðtÞ

where the inverse of the integral of RNP for oil was plotted vs. MBT (Eq. 5) on a log-log plot. With two segments of horizontal lines
defined by the CPG (Fig. 3), Fig. 5 shows a decline-curve analysis using the power-law behavior. The two power-law exponents (a)
shown in Fig. 5 are 0.52 and 0.64. The inverse of the second power-law exponent of 0.64 is the b-factor of 1.6.

y = 2.3495x –0.522
R 2 = 0.9995
PNR or IPNR [(STB/D)/psi]

y = 2.7272x –0.635
R 2 = 0.9996

PNR
IPNR

1 10 100 1,000 10,000

MBT (days)

Fig. 5—Case 1 power-law decline-curve analysis: Both the PNR, denoted by triangles, and the integral of the PNR (IPNR),
denoted by circles, were plotted vs. MBT. Two regions of power-law functions were identified with exponents of –0.52 and –0.64.
R 2 5 coefficient of determination.

Using the power-law exponent to estimate a hyperbolic decline constant (b-factor) reduces the uncertainty of b-factor estimation.
Fig. 6 illustrates an Arps decline-curve analysis with a decline exponent of 1.6 from the second power-law slope.

b = 1.6
Oil Rate (STB/D)

Days on Production

Fig. 6—Case 1 Arps’ decline-curve analysis: Using the inverse of the exponent –0.64 from the second region of the power-law
decline-curve analysis as a reference, an Arps hyperbolic decline curve with a b-factor of 1.6 was generated to match the oil rate.

Pressure-Buildup (PBU) Analysis. Fig. 7 shows the log-log plot of a buildup after producing for 6 months. This buildup, shown in
Fig. 1, is one of the three unscheduled shut-ins. Early-time responses were governed by phase redistribution as a result of producing
at less than the bubblepoint pressure in a gas lift well. After 8 hours of shut-in, the CPG reflected the power-law behavior for
1.5 log cycles.
All three pressure buildup responses exhibited the power-law behavior with a CPG above unity. RTA also displayed a power-law
behavior, but the CPG was below unity. The cause for the discrepancy between drawdown RTA and PBU analysis was not clear.

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1,000
Δp

Δp′

100

Δp, Δp′ (psi) or (Δp/2Δp′)

10

CPG
1

0.1
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000
Δt (hours)

Fig. 7—Case 1 PBU response: Dp with corresponding Dp0 and CPG were plotted vs. shut-in time (Dt). A constant CPG of 1.25
reflected the power-law behavior for 1.5 log cycles.

Case 2—Choke Management. Fig. 8 shows the history of oil, gas, and water production and of BHPs for 2 years. After putting the
well on production, the operations engineer gradually increased the choke sizes to handle significant amounts of fracturing fluids and
debris. Allocated and test rates for oil and gas were consistent. The allocated water rate showed oscillations. The well flowed naturally
for 6 months; subsequently, the gas lift was initiated to unload fracturing fluid. After continuously gas lifting for 10 months, the well
was shut in for 2 months, as a consequence of operational and facility issues. Following extended shut-ins, it is common to observe a
significant initial increase in water cut when the well returns to production. Although the well had been on production for approximately
2 years, the flowing BHP was above the bubblepoint pressure for almost 1.5 years.

BHP
Water PBU

Gas

Oil

1 2
Year

Fig. 8—Case 2: Production history included both allocated (lines) and test (dots) rates for oil, gas, and water. BHP history showed
a PBU after 16 months of production.

Fig. 9 shows the log-log plot of the integral of RNP with its corresponding derivative and CPG for oil. It took more than 100 days
for the CPG of oil to stabilize at 0.81. On the basis of the horizontal lines identified by the CPG (Fig. 9), we calculated a power-law
exponent of 0.62.
The CPG in Fig. 9 shows an initial rise and a long duration of gradual decline before reaching horizontal stabilization. Case 1 exhib-
ited two segments in Fig. 3. However, the early-time segment shown in Case 1 was masked by continuously changing chokes, cleaning
up, and extended shut-ins. On the basis of the horizontal stabilization in Fig. 9, we defined the corresponding exponent of –0.61 on the
power-law decline curve, as shown in Fig. 10. This exponent was equivalent to an Arps b-factor of 1.6. Fig. 11 illustrates an Arps
decline-curve analysis with a b-factor of 1.6. The power-law slope defined by the horizontal line on the CPG enabled us to choose a
reasonable b-factor for the Arps decline-curve analysis.
After 16 months of production, the well was shut in as a result of adjacent operations. Fig. 12 shows the log-log plot of an extended
buildup of 28 days. Before the shut-in, flowing BHP was above the bubblepoint pressure. The CPG was above unity for 30 hours of
shut-in before stabilizing at unity. This extended buildup confirmed the existence of the power-law behavior in the Permian Wolfcamp
Shale. When the CPG is at unity, the power-law exponent is 0.5. In classical diffusion, this indicates a linear flow regime, a subset of
the power-law behaviors.

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100
IRNP

IRNP or IRNP′ [psi/(STB/D)] or (CPG)

IRNP ′
CPG

10

0.1
1 10 100 1,000
MBT (days)

Fig. 9—Case 2: Diagnostic plot of integral of rate-normalized pressure (IRNP) with its corresponding derivative (IRNP 0 ) and CPG
for oil vs. MBT. A constant CPG at 0.81 existed after 180 days of MBT.
PNR or IPNR [(STB/D)/psi]

y = 5.1032x –0.608
R 2 = 0.9982
PNR
IPNR

1 10 100 1,000 10,000

MBT (days)

Fig. 10—Case 2 power-law decline-curve analysis: Both the PNR, denoted by triangles, and the integral of the PNR (IPNR), denoted
by circles, were plotted vs. MBT. On the basis of the power-law behavior identified in Fig. 9, a corresponding slope with an
exponent of –0.61 was shown on PNR and IPNR. R 2 5 coefficient of determination.
Oil Rate (STB/D)

b = 1.6

Days on Production

Fig. 11—Case 2 Arps’ decline-curve analysis: Using the inverse of the exponent (–0.61) from the power-law decline-curve analysis
as a reference, an Arps hyperbolic decline curve with a b-factor of 1.6 was generated to match the oil rate.

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1,000
Δp
Δp′

100

Δp, Δp′ (psi) or (Δp/2Δp′)

10

CPG
1

0.1
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000
Δt (hours)

Fig. 12—Case 2 PBU response: Dp with corresponding Dp0 and CPG were plotted vs. shut-in time (Dt). A first constant CPG of 1.25
reflected the power-law behavior between 1.5 and 15 hours. A second constant CPG of 1.00 was between 60 and 670 hours.

Case 3—Fracture Hits. Fig. 13 shows the production history along with measured BHP. After producing for 9 months, the well
received fracture hits from stimulation of an offset operator’s well. The energy from the fracture hits caused the BHP (arrow in Fig. 13)
to return almost to the initial BHP when the well was reopened. A significant increase in water production always occurs after extended
shut-ins, resulting in operational issues or fracture hits. The well had been on production for more than 2 years and the flowing BHP
was above the bubblepoint pressure for 2 years. This case illustrated the impact of fracture hits on RTA in addition to the issues, such
as choke changes, cleaning up, and shut-ins, discussed in Case 2.

Fracture
hits
BHP
PBU

Water

Gas

Oil

1 2
Year

Fig. 13—Case 3: Production history includes both allocated (lines) and test (dots) rates for oil, gas, and water. BHP history showed
the event of fracture hits (denoted by an arrow) and a PBU after 16 months of production.

Fig. 14 shows the log-log plot of the integral of RNP with its corresponding derivative and the CPG for oil. After 5 days of produc-
tion, a horizontal line of 0.87 existed on the CPG of Fig. 14. Similar to Case 2, the early-time segment shown in Fig. 3 could be masked
by changing chokes and cleaning up during flowback for this case. On the basis of the horizontal line (0.87) on the CPG shown in
Fig. 14, we obtained a power-law exponent of 0.55.
Fig. 15 shows the power-law decline-curve analysis with an exponent of –0.55 that is equivalent to an Arps b-factor of 1.81. Fig. 16
shows an Arps decline-curve analysis with a b-factor of 1.80.
An extended shut-in occurred 7 months after the well received fracture hits. The PBU enabled us to evaluate the well condition and
reservoir behavior. Fig. 17 is the log-log plot of the shut-in pressure with pressure derivative and CPG. Before shut-in, the flowing BHP
was greater than the bubblepoint pressure. A horizontal line of 1.50 existed between 1 and 156 hours for two log cycles of the CPG,
indicating the power-law behavior.

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100

IRNP or IRNP ′ [psi/(STB/D)] or (CPG)

IRNP
IRNP ′
CPG
Fracture hits

10

0.1
1 10 100 1,000
MBT (days)

Fig. 14—Case 3: Diagnostic plot of integral of rate-normalized pressure (IRNP) with its corresponding derivative (IRNP 0 ) and CPG
for oil vs. MBT. A stabilized CPG of 0.87 existed after an MBT of 5 days. The event of fracture hits occurred at an MBT of 200 days.
PNR or IPNR [(STB/D)/psi]

y = 3.1017x –0.553
R 2 = 0.9987

PNR
IPNR

1 10 100 1,000 10,000

MBT (days)

Fig. 15—Case 3 power-law decline-curve analysis: Both the PNR, denoted by triangles, and the integral of the PNR (IPNR), denoted
by circles, were plotted vs. MBT. On the basis of the power-law behavior identified in Fig. 14, the corresponding slope with an
exponent of –0.55 was shown on PNR and IPNR. R 2 5 coefficient of determination.
Oil Rate (STB/D)

b = 1.8

Days on Production

Fig. 16—Case 3 Arps’ decline-curve analysis: Using the inverse of the exponent –0.55 from the power-law decline-curve analysis
as a reference, an Arps hyperbolic-decline curve with a b-factor of 1.8 was generated to match the oil rate.

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1,000
Δp

Δp′
100

Δp, Δp′ (psi) or (Δp/2Δp′)

10

CPG
1

0.1
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000
Δt (hours)

Fig. 17—Case 3 PBU response: Dp with corresponding Dp0 and CPG were plotted vs. shut-in time (Dt). A constant CPG of 1.50
reflected a power-law behavior between 1.0 and 156 hours.

Comments and Conclusion

The principal contribution of this paper is to demonstrate that linear-flow-based techniques are often not sufficient to evaluate well per-
formance in unconventional reservoirs; however, a more general power-law approach was applied to a larger set of unconventional
wells. In addition, a workflow is provided that uses the CPG to identify the power-law behavior and flow regime of the multiple-
fractured horizontal wells in the Wolfcamp Shale of the Permian Basin. The exponent determined from the CPG complemented the
Arps decline curve by increasing confidence in the estimated b-factors for wells with limited production histories. Ultimately, this work-
flow has the potential to improve well management and development planning by providing better appraisals. The workflow constructs
a log-log plot of the integral of RNP with a corresponding logarithmic derivative and CPG vs. MBT; hence, the Arps decline exponent
is calculated as b ¼ 2  (stabilized CPG).
Although many issues are yet to be answered regarding changing power-law behaviors in the Wolfcamp Shale, this workflow pro-
vides engineers with an easy procedure for identifying the power-law behavior. This methodology also attempted to deviate from force
fitting a 1/ 2-slope to the production and BHP data.
We demonstrated that accurate downhole pressure data are essential for rate/time analysis for wells in liquid-rich unconventional
plays. Accurate flow-rate measurements are also important. Operational issues, such as choke changes and fracture hits, create distur-
bances in the power-law behavior. However, such factors did not affect our ability to analyze the well performance when MBT was
used in the rate/time analysis.
One useful aspect of traditional RTA techniques is the ability to easily estimate parameters that correlate with long-term well per-
formance. We developed some techniques for this purpose; however, they are not rigorous and there is certainly room for improvement.
In addition, this paper focused primarily on production-data analysis. We continued to develop power-law techniques to estimate the
magnitude of pressure interference between horizontal wells (Chu et al. 2018) and to identify skin damage associated with horizontal-
well completions.
Finally, we did not broach the subject of power-law techniques for reservoir characterization, which was a key focus of traditional
RTA and pressure-transient-analysis (PTA) methods. Mathematical development of the equations and analysis methods for estimating
key reservoir properties using an anomalous diffusion approach (Raghavan and Chen 2018, 2019) would certainly help in the expansion
of power-law PTA and RTA techniques.

Nomenclature
a ¼ power-law exponent, dimensionless
A ¼ power-law intercept, psi/(STB/D) or (STB/D)/psi
b ¼ Arps’ decline exponent, dimensionless
pi ¼ initial pressure, psi
pwf ¼ flowing pressure, psi
q ¼ flow rate, STB/D
Q ¼ cumulative production, STB
t ¼ time, hours or days
te ¼ material-balance time (MBT), days
Dp0 ¼ natural logarithmic derivative of Dp, psi

Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of R. Raghavan and P. Leonard for their suggestions. We thank both Pioneer Natural
Resources and Kappa Engineering for permission to publish this paper.

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Wei-Chun Chu is an engineering technical specialist at Pioneer Natural Resources. His research interests include pressure-
transient and production-data analysis for conventional and unconventional reservoirs. Chu has authored or coauthored more
than 30 technical papers and holds one US patent. He holds a BS degree in chemistry from New Mexico Tech and a PhD degree
in petroleum engineering from the University of Tulsa.
Nimish D. Pandya is a senior reservoir engineering coordinator at Pioneer Natural Resources. He is currently leading the portfolio
management team in the Strategic Planning and Field Development group. Pandya holds an MS degree in petroleum engi-
neering from Texas A&M University and a BS degree in chemical engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology.
Ray W. Flumerfelt is an engineering director at Pioneer Natural Resources. His technical interests include well performance analy-
sis, data analytics, artificial lift, and completions design. Flumerfelt holds BS and MS degrees in petroleum engineering from Texas
A&M University.
Chih Chen is a manager at Kappa Engineering. His interests include well testing and model development. Chen has served on
several SPE committees and on the SPE Editorial Review Committee. He holds an MS degree in petroleum engineering from the
University of Tulsa.

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