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Slides4 - Social Evolution - Hilbert
Slides4 - Social Evolution - Hilbert
Slides4 - Social Evolution - Hilbert
Boosting agriculture/economy
Irrigation systems, storage bins, fertilizers, etc.
Improving basic health
Ceramic stoves, refrigeration, rainwater harvesting
systems, water pumps, antimalarial bed nets, etc.
Investing in education
Lab material, computers and software apps, etc.
Automobile,
aircraft
Electrical
Progress
engineering
Steam-engines
Water wheels
Iron
Bronze tools
tools
Stone
tools
2,000,000bc 3,300bc 1,200bc 1780 1848 1895 1940 1973 20??
TIME
Source: Hilbert and Cairo, 2008; Cristopher Freeman et al. As time goes by, 2001. Schumpeter, (1939). Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Hist., & Stat. Analysis of the Capitalist Process.
Information and
How does society evolve? Communication
Technologies (ICT)
Automobile,
Progress
aircraft
Electrical
Progress
engineering
Human
Steam-engines
Water wheels
Iron
Bronze tools
tools
Stone
tools
2,000,000bc 3,300bc 1,200bc 1780 1848 1895 1940 1973 20??
TIME
Source: Hilbert and Cairo, 2008; Cristopher Freeman et al. As time goes by, 2001. Schumpeter, (1939). Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Hist., & Stat. Analysis of the Capitalist Process.
The Contours of Economic Evolution
J.A. Schumpeter
(1883-1950)
ongoing?
7,000
GDP per
capita (USD, world)
100
Digitalization
Energy consumption
6,000
Btu (British thermal unit, US)
90
32 years ICT
80
5,000
45 years
J.A. Schumpeter Motorization
70
(1883-1950)
47 years
4,000
Automobile
60
aircraft
68 years
50
Electrification growth
3,000
of
Mechanization Electrical 80%
40
engineering
steam-powered
2,000
Mechanization
30
Steam-engines growth of
water-powered 80%
20
Water wheels growth of
1,000
80%
10
1780 1848 1895 1940 1973 2000
Source: based on Cristopher Freeman et al. As time goes by, 2001. TIME
“Creative Destruction”
www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaIek5MQ6Hs
Joseph Alois Schumpeter
Business Cycles: The Contours of Economic Evolution (1939)
“…the history of capitalism is studded with violent bursts and catastrophes…. we […] come to the
conclusion that evolution is a disturbance of existing structures and more like a series of explosions
than a gentle, though incessant, transformation…”
“This process of economic change or evolution, moreover, goes on in units separated from each other by neighborhoods
of equilibrium. Each of those units, in turn, consists of two distinct phases, during the first of which the system, under the
impulse of entrepreneurial activity, draws away from an equilibrium position, and during the second of which it draws
toward another equilibrium position… we observe in the course of those fluctuations in economic life which have come
to be called business cycles and which, translated into the language of diagrams, present the picture of an undulating or
wavelike movement in absolute figures or rates of change”
=> Economic and social evolution is a process that is always “out of equilibrium”!
“…as the process gathers momentum, these effects steadily gain in importance, and disequilibrium, enforcing a process
of adaptation, begins to show. … this is the process by which the effects of the entrepreneurial activity spread over the
whole system, dislocating values, disrupting the equilibrium that existed before. The term Windfall correctly expresses the
character of both these gains and losses…” [“creative destruction”]
Source: Schumpeter, J. (1939). Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, And Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York:
McGraw-Hill. Retrieved from http://classiques.uqac.ca/classiques/Schumpeter_joseph/business_cycles/schumpeter_business_cycles.pdf
Long wave Dominating Underlying New or redefined New or redefined Social change
General scientific infrastructures sectors
Purpose paradigm
Technology
Automobile,
aircraft
Progress
Electrical
engineering
Steam-engines
Water wheels
GENERAL
PURPOSE
TECHNOLOGY
1780 1848 1895 1940 1973
TIME
How do
societies evolve?
Empirical evidence of creative destruction
Source: Dobbin and Dowd (1997), Administrative Science Quarterly, 42 (1997): 515
Empirical evidence of creative destruction
• Potential all-pervasiveness;
Source: Perez, C. (1983). Structural change and assimilation of new technologies in the economic and social systems. Futures, 15(5), 357–375.
What is needed to trigger a great surge?
“The deployment of each technology system involves
2a- Social Change several interconnected processes…:
1. The development of surrounding services (required
infrastructure, specialized suppliers,
distributors, maintenance services, etc.)
2. The "cultural" adaptation to the logic of the
interconnected technologies involved (among
engineers, managers, sales and service people,
consumers, etc.)
3. The setting up of the institutional facilitators (rules and
regulations, specialized training and education, etc.)”
Carlota Perez (2006), “Re-specialisation and the deployment of the ICT paradigm: An essay on the present challenges of globalisation”, http://www.carlotaperez.org p. 33 - 48.
Infrastructure Is progress
progress:
as in “technological progress” =?≠
Generic services
“move forward development
or onward” Capabilities, skills,
culture
e-government
e-education
e-business
de-velop:
e-health
as in “human development”
“opposite of
en-velope”
Communication
Electro Radio TV
Smoke & Trumpet, News Chappe magnetic Tele- broad- trans- Cellular
Fire Signals, horns paper Telegraph Telegraph phone casting mission 1973
Drums, etc. 100 B.C. 1502 1794 1837 1876 1918 1927
The world's technological capacity to store,
communicate and compute information
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIKPjOuwqHo
Source: Hilbert, M., & López, P.
(2011). The World’s
Technological Capacity to Store,
Communicate, and Compute
Information. Science,
332(6025), 60-65.
Storage in optimally compressed MB
2002:
the beginning
of the digital age
% digital: 1 % 3% 25 % 94 %
Source: Washington Post, based on Hilbert and Lopez, 2011
Computations worldwide [MIPS]
For more see:
www.MartinHilbert.net/WorldInfoCapacity.html
Digital convergence on the bit
Claude Shannon
(1916 - 2001)
Communication
Electro Radio TV
Smoke & Trumpet, News Chappe magnetic Tele- broad- trans- Cellular
Fire Signals, horns paper Telegraph Telegraph phone casting mission 1973
Drums, etc. 100 B.C. 1502 1794 1837 1876 1918 1927
min 0:00 – 2:31
http://youtu.be/z7bVw7lMtUg
Information Theory Primer: Shannon’s (1948) idea of the bit
Shannon’s game of twenty questions:
220 = 1,048,576 choices
=> …down to 5 miles2 !
Claude Shannon
(1916 – 2001)
Claude E. Shannon (1948)
A Mathematical Theory of
Communication, Bell System Technical
Journal, Vol. 27, pp. 379–423, 623–656.
A
Information Theory Primer B
C
coding Yes D
E
No F
G
H
Yes I
J
No Yes
K
L
No M
Yes N
O
P
1 2 3 4 5 J
R bits
S
Yes
T
No No U
V
genius: Yes W
X
Transmit: No Y
Z
“g” Yes
Ñ
Á
No É
Í
Ó
Transmit: No Y
Z
I
B
Ñ
“i” Yes Á
É
U
T
No
Í I
Ó O
=> “i” = yes-no-yes-yes-yes = 10111 Ú N
=> consider REDUNDANCY
A
Information Theory Primer B
+
C
Yes D P
E R
No F
O
G
H B
Yes I
J
A
B
No Yes
K
L
I
L
Yes No M
N I
Claude Shannon O T
(1948) P Y
A Mathematical 1 2 3 4 5 bits
J
R
–
Theory of
D
Communication,
Bell System Technical Journal,
No Yes
S
T I Source Coding
Vol. 27, pp. 379–423, 623–656. No U S
V
T Theorem:
genius: Yes W
R What’s the purest
X
Transmit: No Y
Z
I
B
form
Ñ of information?
“i” Yes Á
É
U
T ! ENTROPY !
No
Í I
Ó O
=> “i” = yes-no-yes-yes-yes = 10111 Ú N
=> consider REDUNDANCY
COMPRESSION Transmit
less data,
so you can
transmit
more information
“I do not ne_d to comm_______ (…with the same amount of
ev_ry det_il, _u kn_w what I data symbols…)
mean, and _u rec_ive all the
info____ anywa_s, right?
Source Coding
Probability of letters Probability of words Theorem:
in English alphabet: in English language: What’s the purest
form
E: 13% “the”: 10%
T: 10% “ of”: 5.1% of information?
A: 8% “in”: 2.7% ! ENTROPY !
O: 7% …
… “with”: 0.66%
Q: 0.121% “from”: 0.64%
Z: 0.077% ...
COMPRESSION
Transmit less, so you can transmit more!
P.S. there is also “lossy compression”, but this is simply elimination of some
information (reducing quality / detail / information). Real “data compression”
into information is “loss-less”.
Source Coding
Theorem:
What’s the purest
form
of information?
! ENTROPY !
1993!
What drives the global growth of information?
Infrastructure Hardware
8% per year 25%
5% per year
per year
X =
Software
11% per year
Number of
X X = stones/bits
Source: Hilbert, M. (2014). How much of the global information and communication explosion is driven by more, and how much by better technology?
Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 65(4), 856–861.
Shannon, C. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System
Technical Journal, 27, 379–423, 623–656.
Claude Shannon
(1948)
U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. (1995).
Global communications : opportunities for trade and aid.
(OTA-ITC-642nd ed.). U.S. Government Printing Office.
http://youtu.be/z7bVw7lMtUg 6:55
http://youtu.be/sBHGzRxfeJY
https://www.khanacademy.org/computing/
computer-science/informationtheory