2019 Kentucky Derby Locks

Actually started writing the Locks making analogous this wide-open Derby field with the wide-
open field of 2020 Democratic candidates for president. Then realized that there are actually 21
Democrats that have registered with the Federal Election Commission as candidates and the
Kentucky Derby field is limited to 20 entrants – so thought otherwise --- didn’t want to leave
anyone out especially in our litigious society Also feel that the Derby can provide a welcome
respite from the political polarization that exists today. But before we get into who will be this
year’s winner – a quick look at the last Spinal Tap-amplifier-max (11) Locks.

Past Locks:

2018: Audible – finish 3rd – odds: 7.00-1

2017: Always Dreaming – 1st – odds: 4.70-1

2016: Mohaymen – 4th - 11.80-1

2015: Firing Line -- 2nd – 9.50-1

2014: Danza – 3rd – 8.70-1

2013: Orb – 1st – 5.40-1

2012: Daddy Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1

2011: Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1

2010: Ice Box– 2nd – 11.70 -1

2009: Musket Man – 3rd – 19.00-1

2008: Big Brown – 1st – 2.40-1

Buoyed by these results, the Locks are going to continue with the same strategy looking at
Winners, Runners and Conformers:

Winners: Horses that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have
not run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3 wins.

Runners: Looking for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.

Conformers: Looking for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books

Winners

Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the winner of the Kentucky Derby... on
average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts
and has been in the money close to 6 times in those starts. In those years there was only
Giacamo that had come in with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him
at 50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins have been 20-1
(Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with only 2 wins was 20.90:1).
Accepting low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks winning strategy -- Plus Que
Parfait, By My Standards, Code of Honor, Tax, Cutting Humor, Country House, Gray Magician,
Master Fencer, Spinoff are all winners of only 1 or 2 races.

Runners

As a student of the late Dr. Howard Sartin, the Locks puts a lot of merit on the fact that "pace
makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the godfather of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s
basement (not that there is anything wrong with that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of races,
died young from a diet that didn’t include anything but 2 liter Cokes, Hostess Snowballs, and
Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the race unfolds not just how the race ends
is important. To determine how the Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past
performances and analyze splits and positions at those splits.

From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off
the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile – 2.1 lengths.

During that same period, the median finishing position of Kentucky Derby horses that have
been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the 1st call are 13th and 14th place,
respectively. Using the same data, there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winner and no others
that won that were less than 2 lengths off the pace after the first call.

However, the last 5 years, we have seen speedier horses prevail with average position off
pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1 length, 1 mile, on or near lead.

But looking to fill your exotics since 2010,

- 2nd place horses have been (on average) ½ mile: 10 lengths, ¾ mile: 8.5 lengths, 1 mile,
4 lengths off the lead.
- 3rd place horses: ½ mile: 8 lengths, ¾ mile: 6 lengths, 1 mile, 3 lengths off the lead.

It doesn’t appear that that there are any horses in the race that are not able to be rated at all –
but do have Omaha Beach, Vekoma, Maximum Security followed by War of Will, Tax and
Spinoff that will want to be close to the lead. The expectation - without the cheap speed/rabbit -
is that there will be a moderate pace (47+,1:11+). As such it appears that one of these
early/presser types would be the Derby winner. However, the factor of having a world class
jockey compounded with having a horse that has tactical speed (but my not have shown it
through its past performances) may add contenders. Read on.

Noted above since 2000 closers have helped fill the exacta/trifecta spot and some of these are
box-car bombs: Lookin at Lee (33-1), Commanding Curve (38-1), Golden Soul (35-1), Dullahan
(12-1), Denis of Cork (27-1), Stepenwolfer (16-1) –even with a moderate pace – need to keep
an eye on closers in this field like Master Fencer, Haikal, Win Win Win and Country House to fill
out your exacta and trifecta tickets.
Conformers

The Locks enjoys history. Any reader of the Locks in previous years very well knows that The
Locks was a half a semester of Russian History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown
University. Drinking Cossack vodka and YooHoo Black Russians – apparently - is not a
substitute for studying and when they didn’t include how Catherine the Great died in the
midterm-- the Locks mercifully withdrew from the class.`

The history of the Kentucky Derby has some real interesting tidbits for those that don’t know
already -- the Kentucky Derby was originally the brainchild of Merriweather Lewis Clark Jr. – the
grandson of General William Clark – the Clark from the Lewis & Clark Expedition fame.
Merriweather Clark wasn’t going to satisfied with a canoe trip with Sacagawea and sweaty
unbathed Merriweather Lewis, so he had taken a couple of European trips and found the
Epsom Derby (which dates back to 1780) fascinating. As well he discovered the French pari-
mutuel betting system as a fair way to set odds. So on his return to Kentucky, he established
the Louisville Jockey Club and built Churchill Downs and on May 17, 1875 the first Kentucky
Derby was run.

The Locks does like to look at history when betting the Derby as there is 144 years of data
already accumulated which can give you some clues on how to bet....some facts and history to
consider when betting:

Last-race-C Speed Index figures for the last 22 years have been quite telling-- only 3 horses
with sub-100 CSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that won going off at
31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole exception of being the Derby favorite
and winner despite a sub-100 CSI. There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just 100 that also
rewarded the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. The other 12
Kentucky Derby winners in last 16 years averaged a last race CSI of 105.85. This year 10 horses
in the 20 horse field have last race sub-100 CSIs.

In the same 22 year period, only Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register a
Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year, only the following
have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2 races: Tacitus, Vekoma, By My Standards, Maximum
Security, Haikal, Tax, Spinoff

Homebreds have been quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 16 and 5 out of the last 9
Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them. In the 2019 Kentucky Derby,
Master Fencer, Spinoff, Country House, Win Win Win, Long Range Toddy, Haikal, Code of
Honor, Maximum Security, Tacitus are all homebreds.

Derby horses names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very successful with
a record of 10 wins out of 192 starters (5.2%). Vekoma and Improbable are looking to buck the
trend. Those horses whose name begins with A, J, W are more successful winning at a
10.90% clip – Win Win Win & War of Will are this year’s “W” horses.

Win Win Win (FL) and Master Fencer (JPN) are the only non-Kentucky breds Derby starters.
Florida has only bred 6 Derby winners including Silver Charm in 1997 and Triple Crown winner
Affirmed. But note 5 Florida-breds have hit the board in the last 16 years. There has never been
a Japanese-bred horse that has raced in the Kentucky Derby. The last non-US bred horse to win
the Derby was in 1983 which was Canadian bred Sunny’s Halo – the only other Canadian-bred
winner was Northern Dancer. Most of this year’s field has lineage within 5 generations to
Northern Dancer.

Betting on Derby horses that have exclusively raced outside the US has proven as successful
as the Fyre Festival as there have been no in-the-money finishes in 10 starts since 1967.
Master Fencer has only raced in Japan. No horse that raced in Japan has been draped in a
blanket of roses. Other horses that have raced in Japan in last 50 years are Lani (9th place) and
Ski Captain (14th).

Since 1914, no Derby winner has broke its maiden at Remington Park (Long Range Toddy), Fair
Grounds (By My Standards), Laurel (Win Win Win).

Two-thirds of Derby winners broke their maidens (won their first race) on either their first or
second start including 16 out of the last 19 Derby winners. These entries took longer to break
their maidens: Omaha Beach (5th start), Plus Que Parfait (3rd start), By My Standards (4th start),
War of Will (5th start), Cutting Humor (3rd start), Country House (3rd start), Gray Magician (4th
start), Master Fencer (3rd start).

Currently the streak of Derby winners who come into the race off a win their last prep is 8. The
longest such streak based on data from 1940.

Also the streak of favorites winning the Derby also stands at 6 which is the longest such streak
in Kentucky Derby history. This comes after a period from 1980-1999 that the favorite didn’t
win the Derby once. The Locks feels that this streak comes to an end this year.

Since 1952, no Derby winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race before the
Derby, War of Will (9th Louisiana Derby) and Long Range Toddy (6th Arkansas Derby) have had
clunkers in their last race.

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1 War of Will 15-1

Owner: Gary Barber

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Sire : War Front $250,000

Dam: Visions of Clarity (IRE) by Sadler’s Wells

Race Record: 8:3-1-1

CSI Figures: 106-102-94

Owner Gary Barber is a Hollywood power player with producing film credits on some good
flicks Ace Ventura, True Romance and appropriately for a long time racehorse owner,
Seabiscuit – although there were some not-so-good ones in there too – Young Guns II, Major
League II and Reigns of Fire which is described as a 2002 post-apocalyptic science fantasy film
starring Matthew McConaughey and Christian Bale. Despite the acting chops of Wooderson
and American Psycho, once the words ‘post-apocalyptic’ is tagged to a movie – The Locks
smells flop. Flop also describes War of Will’s Louisiana Derby 9th place finish. Purchased at a
2yo breeze up sale in Deauville last year, WoW was on his way to become the early Derby
favorite. But, WoW’s Louisiana Derby performance can be equated to Kevin Costner’s work in
the Gary Barber produced Dragonfly the long forgotten 2002 supernatural fantasy film which
was described by critics as “dull”, “boring”, “dopey” and “absurd disappointment”. It does
beg the question of what WoW will show up on the first Saturday of May – the one with
breeding made to run the Derby 10 furlongs, the one that is a 2 turn winner at Churchill Downs
and the one that rattled off wins in 3 races after switching from turf to dirt including the Grade
3 LeComte & Grade 2 Risen Star OR the one that closed the Risen Star in a 13.5 last furlong
and the one that bombed in the Louisiana Derby like Gary Barber’s Wrongfully Accused a 1998
German-American satirical comedy starring Leslie Nielsen as a man who has been framed for
murder and desperately attempts to expose the true culprits. With other Derby entrants on
the rise and WoW stuck in the dreaded post position, the Locks will pass on War of Will.

2 Tax 20-1

Owner: R. A. Hill Stable Reeves Thoroughbred

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Sire : Arch

Dam: Toll by Giant’s Causeway

Race Record: 5:2-2-1

CSI Figures: 106-110-102

Claiborne Farm can’t be too upset that they lost their homebred, Tax, in a Maiden Claiming race
in October last year as they are well represented by having 4 Derby entrants that are sired by
Claiborne Farm stallions (Omaha Beach, War of Will, Cutting Humor and Tax). But then again –
for all the history of Claiborne Farm – they only have, as owner, won one Kentucky Derby with
homebred Swale in 1984 and Tax is a live contender. Claiborne Farm names their horses like
they are Brazilian soccer stars with single word names thus Tax seems aptly named as progeny
of a Claiborne mare Toll. Claiborne’s loss was Randy Hill and Dean Reeves gain as being the
ones that made the lucky claim. Since the claim and being put in the hands of trainer Danny
Gargan, Tax has rattled off 3 in-the-money finishes in 3 graded stakes including the win in the 9
furlong Withers Stakes. Tax out of the sire Arch has the stamina for the Derby and along with
Master Fencer are the only ones in the Derby with 3 – 9 furlong starts - all 3 being graded
stakes. Tax also is only horse in field with 3 100+ BrisNet speed figs. Tax has also shown
tactical speed which has been the running style of recent Derby winners. Even though Tax is
popping from the 2 hole - if had to choose between the propositions of Tax winning the
Kentucky Derby and the New York Jets making the Super Bowl LIV certainly would bet on Tax.

3 By My Standards 15-1

Owner: Allied Racing Stable LLC

Trainer: W Calhoun

Jockey: Gabriel Saez

Sire : Goldencents $20,000

Dam: A Jealous Woman by Muqtarib

Race Record: 5:2-2-1

CSI Figures: 95-99-106

Owner Chester Thomas who is as subtle as a Zion Williamson dunk operates under the nom-
de-race Allied Racing. He made his money in the Western Kentucky coal mines and has owned
several race horses over the years but never a graded stakes winner until By My Standards.
His next best recent horse was a race mare named Viam Inveniam – meaning ‘find the way’ in
Latin. The phrase actually is attributed to Hannibal as it was his response to his generals that
told him they couldn’t pass through the Alps with elephants --- Hannibal responded Aut viam
inveniam aut faciam – ‘find a way or make one’. Gabriel Saez, By My Standards’ jockey in the
Louisiana Derby didn’t need to make his own way – he found the path of least resistance – rail
trip, into a seam and back to the rail and by finding the shortest trip to the wire had the energy
to fight off Spinoff who was parked 4 wide most of the trip. The time the stop watch stopped
in the Louisiana Derby holds up well versus the Oaks prep fillies and older handicap horses that
were also run that day. But questions of this horse will surround if can get the Derby distance
– sire Goldencents was 2x Breeders Cup Dirt Mile champ after faltering at the 10 furlong Derby
distance while the mare was a turf miler – the average winning distance of the dam sire’s
progeny is 5.8 furlongs (shortest of the field). Also some comments by owner and trainer have
veiled questions about the horse’s ability to get the 10 furlongs. Given these questions and
that the Louisiana Derby was this colt’s first race outside maiden company will choose to not
use in the mix.

4 Gray Magician 50-1

Owner: Wachtel Stable Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners

Trainer: Peter Miller

Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke

Sire : Graydar $7,500

Dam: Burg Berg by Johannesburg

Race Record: 8:1-3-2

CSI Figures:104-95-99

Gray Magician is this years “Pink-Tom-Brady-Women’s-Size-Medium-Jersey” 1 challenge

selection for 2019. Gray Magician has only 1 win in 8 starts and looking at records since 1976
only Giacomo (2005) and Alysheba (1987) have won the Derby off only 1 win in their career.
Before finishing 2nd in – what appears to be a lackluster- UAE Derby, Gray Magician lost 3 races
by a total of 15+ lengths with BrisNet Late Pace figures of 89,67,73 which are poor figures.
One of the losses was in the Miracle Wood at Laurel Park which was won by Alwaysmining
who is the strongest non-Derby running contender in the next leg of the Triple Crown, the
Preakness. Gray Magician loses Joel Rosario who rode the colt in the UAE Derby who has
chosen to ride Game Winner. Has the field’s lowest Brisnet Prime Power figure. No Beyer
Speed figure higher than 80. Although comes out of a stakes-winning dam, Burg Berg was
better at flat 1 mile races on turf. Trainer Peter Miller is brilliant with sprinters but has had less
success with routing horses. Look for jockey Drayden Van Dyke inexplicably pulling Gray
Magician to back of the pack and then racing 5-6 wide. Also will be further compromised by an
off track as worst race in career comes on a sloppy track. If the Derby were the 2020
Democratic presidential race, Gray Magician would be the Eric Swalwell of the field.

1
If this horse inexplicably wins the Locks then the Locks will wear a Pink Tom Brady Women’s size medium jersey
on next air flight – currently scheduled for Hong Kong late May.
5 Improbable 5-1

Owner: Winstar Farm, China Horse Club International

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Sire : City Zip

Dam: Rare Event by AP Indy

Race Record: 5:3-2-0

CSI Figures: 109-101-110

Improbable appears to be appropriately named - as progeny of City Zip are not supposed to run
long and tend to prefer the turf over the dirt. Thus, this colt lining up as one of the favorites on
the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs is improbable. Improbable certainly earned its way
into the starting gate – 3 wins/2 2nds in 5 tries – one of the wins was a 2 turn race at Churchill
Downs on the Breeder’s Cup undercard which Improbable won by 7 lengths – extrapolating
that race’s time to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile distance – appears would have beat Game
Winner in the Breeder’s Cup race. Also Improbable’s race time would have beat a field of older
former Kentucky Derby runners also on that card. Perhaps Improbable’s dam by AP Indy is
giving the colt stamina – but if anyone is to know if a son of City Zip can get 10 furlongs it has
to be Bob Baffert. Bob Baffert campaigned Collected for the same owners as Roadster who
was a $3m-earning City Zip colt that won the 10f Pacific Classic. Baffert’s comments about
this colt are somewhat telling in calling Improbable a smaller version of Triple Crown winning
Justify and wasn’t just talking about the fact that Improbable and Justify have the same
ownership but the colt’s long stride. Baffert even put Improbable into Justify’s old stall when
Justify retired. If Oaklawn had Trakus data, it would show that Improbable ran the faster Rebel
Stakes than Long Range Toddy and was taken 5 wide to avoid dirt getting kicked in face in the
Arkansas Derby. If there are knocks on Improbable it is the fact that Jose Ortiz chose to ride
Tacitus over Improbable and the fact that Improbable was nearly scratched out of the Arkansas
Derby because Improbable was difficult to load into the starting gate. If there is a repeat in the
Derby – the energy used fighting getting into the gate may just be enough to impact the race.

Considering that in the 9 years that Bob Baffert has entered multiple entrants that the median
finish of his best finishing horse is 2nd – so it is expected at least of one of Baffert’s entry will
hit the board – it’s now determining which Baffert trainee that will be.
6 Vekoma 15-1

Owner: R. A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables

Trainer: George Weaver

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sire : Candy Ride $80,000

Dam: Mona de Momma by Speightstown

Race Record: 4:3-0-1

CSI Figures:111-103-101

Vekoma, named after a Dutch roller coaster company, certainly, has given owners Ted and
Mike Gastas of New Hampshire and Randy Hill from Texas a ride. Winner of the Blue Grass
Stakes represents the Gastas’ (Ted being the former mayor of Manchester, NH) and Randy
Hill’s (made his money selling used semi trailers as store bins – who woulda thunk?) first derby
horse. Lot to like about this horse on the surface 1) winning the Blue Grass, 2) has the top CSI
figure in the field, 3) top Brisnet Prime Power index (kind of like a RPI for horse racing taking
performance and strength of schedule into account) 4) stakes winning mare that actually has
won on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs. 5) no out of the money starts 6) tactical speed.
But looking a bit further shows why the Locks will look elsewhere: top CSI fig was earned in a
flat 1 mile race last November -- dam side is speed not stamina – Speightstown the dam-sire is
a brilliant speed sire with average winning distance of progeny of only 6.5 furlongs – the dam
was a stakes winner at 6.5f and 7f – the Brisnet late pace figs for last 3 races are in the 80s (no
other Derby horse except Gray Magician has such low figs for last 3 races). A talented horse
that may see later in season in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile but not a Derby winner.

7 Maximum Security 8-1

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Jason Servis

Jockey: Luis Saez

Sire : New Year’s Day $150,000

Dam: Lil Indy by Anasheed

Race Record: 4:4-0-0

CSI Figures: 103-91-102

As mentioned below, the al Maktoums have spent 100s of millions of dollars on horseflesh to
chase the Derby dream -- so it is incredible to think that on December 20th less than 5 months
ago, you could have claimed Maximum Security for $16,000. Four wins and nearly $700k of
earnings later Maximum Security sits as the 5th favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Only 2 Derby
winners have won a maiden claiming race on way to winning the Derby, both improbable
victors, Mine that Bird in 2009 and Charismatic in 1999. Since 2000, beyond Mine that Bird
only 9 Derby runners had previously run in a claiming race – the median finish of those 9
starters is 15th. Although since 1915, undefeated Derby entrants have won 9 times given 29
chances (31%), this colt is an unlikely winner. Since 2000, 3 horses came into the Derby with a
similar profile as Maximum Security – lightly raced – undefeated – all races coming at
Gulfstream Park – Materiality in 2015, Dunkirk in 2009 and Trippi in 2000, these horses finished
6th, 11th, & 16th in the Derby, respectively. The first 3 races of Maximum Security’s short career
were one turn sprint races which this colt dominated including an 18 length romp on February
20th – but Maximum Security’s Florida Derby was as much as a win for Luis Saez as the colt’s
– Saez got to the lead and then slowed the pace to :48.4,1:12.4 fractions and galloped out to
victory. Maximum Security won’t be able to do the same in the cavalry charge of the Kentucky
Derby. Although this one may ultimately end up a successful sprinter/miler, look for a finish in
the bottom half of the Derby field.

8 Tacitus 8-1

Owner: Juddmonte Farms Inc.

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Sire : Tapit $225,000

Dam: Close Hatches by First Defense

Race Record: 4:3-0-0

CSI Figures: 99-101-103

I am sure if Tacitus, the first century Roman senator that this colt is named after, was
handicapping the Derby – he, known for his writing of the Annals, would also, like the Locks,
use the Derby’s history to guide what to wager his hard-earned aureus on. Both owner
Juddmonte Farms and trainer Bill Mott are considered some of the very best in the game but
neither have found success in the elusive Kentucky Derby. Juddmonte has campaigned
champions like Arrogate and Frankel but only 5 horses have run under the Juddmonte colors in
the Kentucky Derby. Even though Juddmonte is without a Kentucky Derby win, Aptitude in
2000 and Empire Maker in 2003 have had runner-up finishes and Hofburg last year’s
Juddmonte Derby entrant ended up 3rd in the Belmont. As for Bill Mott, the tag of ‘best trainer
not to win the Kentucky Derby’ does a tremendous disservice to Bill Mott’s career. I am
certain if Mott or the excellent owners he works with put a single race as their number one
priority – Mott would have multiple Derby victories but Mott is a patient trainer who does right
by his horses and manages their whole 2-4+ year careers not just for a single race. But Tacitus
may be the very horse to give Juddmonte and Bill Mott their first Derby victory and is the 2019
Lock. Luckily we have unearthed some of Tacitus’ (the Roman one) handicapping notes:

- Royal breeding – Tacitus is the first foal out of Champion mare Close Hatches who
earned $2.7million in her 9 victory career – Tapit is arguably the best US based sire who
has sired 4 Breeder’s Cup champions and 3 Belmont Stakes winners and has produced
26 $1m+ yearlings. Non procul a proprio stipite poma cadunt
- Among the top-flight jockeys that will ride in the Derby, few will argue that Jose Ortiz
has not stamped himself as best in the game since 2016. Usus magister est optimus
- 3 for 3 since a 4th in debut race.
- Tacitus’ Wood was faster than the older handicap horses and over 1 second faster than
the Gazelle, an Oaks prep. Ignavum fortuna repugnat
- Raced in only 2 races in 2019 and is looking to even further improve in the Derby.
- Triple digit figures in last race CSI, Brisnet Speed, Brisnet Late Pace. Slow actual come
home time in Wood was concern but faster in comparison to handicap race and proven
by the 100+ Brisnet Late pace figure – concern mitigated. Nihil sollicitus sis, aequo
animo fer
- Won Wood despite having to take up twice and running on wrong lead for half of the
stretch. Periculum in mora
- Has shown ability to rate but will not be too far off pace. Festina lente
- Since year 2000, gray horses have finished in a superfecta finish (top 4) in 28% of the
entries - better than the expected value of 20%. Canus honoretur, puer ad documenta
citetur

Despite an expected tepid pace, feel that Jose Ortiz will be able to put Tacitus in to the race
early if needed and that Tacitus is talented enough to respond. Alternatively, if the pace is
faster than expected, Jose Ortiz will let Tacitus run in the stretch for victory.
9 Plus Que Parfait 30-1

Owner: Imperial Racing LLC

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Sire : Point of Entry $20,000

Dam: Belvedera by Awesome Again

Race Record: 7:2-1-2

CSI Figures: 99-82-xxx

With a name that means more than perfect, Plus Que Parfait had been less than perfect racing
in the US in 2019 including a 13th place, 20 lengths off the winner in the Risen Star Stakes and
a 5th, more than 6 lengths off the winner in the LeComte Stakes. PQP’s UAE Derby win was
also not as impressive as Mendelsohn’s race last year and if extrapolated out to the Dubai
World Cup distance – PQP would have been near the back of the pack in that race. As Imperial
Racing LLC has campaigned horses named Violent Nature, To Fight and Arakadag (homage to a
Turkmenistan autocrat), the Locks is going to avoid any further negatives on the horse’s
chances of winning the Derby. Nice horsey!

10 Cutting Humor 30-1

Owner: Starlight Stables

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Corie Lanerie

Sire : First Samurai $15,000

Dam: Pun by Pulpit

Race Record: 6-2-2-1

CSI Figures: 105-87-105

Eerily Cutting Humor follows the same racing pattern as 2017 Derby entry Hence - 2 wins
including a maiden race and the Sunland Park Derby which creates a sandwich around a dismal
7th place finish in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Both also experienced a significant
jump in speed figs at the Sunland Park Derby compared to prior performances. Hence closed
from 18th place to get 11th but not at all threatening to the top 3 finishers. Perhaps this is the
same fate for Cutting Humor. Cutting Humor would be more compelling as a wager without
the clunker in the Southwest Stakes with increasingly better performances with each run. But
do need to take into account that John Velazquez jumps off this one to ride Code of Honor.
After Johnny V committed to another horse, Todd Pletcher had to resort to scouring Jockey
Tinder to find a mount for Cutting Humor – ultimately Corie Lanerie agreed to the date at the
last minute. Also consider that Pletcher’s record in the Derby is still one to question - 2 wins in
52 tries. Pass.

11 Haikal 30-1

Owner: Shadwell Stable

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Sire : Daaher $5,000

Dam: Sablah by Distorted Humor

Race Record: 5:3-1-1

CSI Figures: 104-105-99

If Haikal wins the Kentucky Derby – there is going to be some serious tension at the al
Maktoum family bar-b-q this summer. Haikal’s owner Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum
is the older but yet less powerful brother of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the
Ruler of Dubai and the owner of one of the world’s largest horse racing operation, Godolphin.
Despite Godolphin winning at last count 298 Grade/Group 1 races including numerous
Breeder’s Cup and Dubai World Cup races, the Epsom Derby, the Melbourne Cup, Sheikh
Mohammed after spending 100s of millions of dollars and having 11 entries since 1999 has yet
to win the Kentucky Derby. So now if Sheikh Hamdan who operates only a relatively less
modest racing operation wins the Derby only on his 4th entrant to the Derby – there will
certainly will be icy stares between brothers at the next family get together. Sheikh Hamdan’s
Shadwell Stable has also won scores of Grade/Group 1 wins including wins in the English
classics, 3 Breeder’s Cup races, the Dubai World Cup, the Melbourne Cup and L’Arc de
Triomphe but only has Jazil’s Belmont Stakes win to thank for his single Triple Crown victory.
Haikal like Jazil in 2006 (4th) and Mohaymen in 2016 (4th) has a live opportunity to win the
Kentucky Derby. Haikal will need some racing luck in the form of fast fractions as Haikal is a
deep closer. Haikal came back from 14+ lengths to win the Gotham Stakes and to capture 3rd
in the Wood. Haikal’s Gotham was nearly as fast as the older handicap horse race that was run
earlier in the card and also Haikal had the fastest closing time in the Wood and appears –
despite opposing views of experts - may relish the extra furlong in the Derby. On the trifecta
ticket is a clear possibility.

12 Omaha Beach Scratched

Owner: Fox Hill Farms

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Jockey: Mike Smith

Sire : War Front $250,000

Dam: Charming by Seeking the Gold

Race Record: 6:2-3-1

CSI Figures: 107-101-111

Omaha Beach named in tribute to the sacrifices made by 1000s of American troops on the
beaches of Normandy on June 6, 1944. A visit this past summer to Deauville and Normandy
drives home to what the impossibility of the task and hardships endured by those liberators.
Hopeful that this small gesture of naming of this horse keeps in mind the history of that period
in world history.

But absurdly, Omaha Beach, the colt, has a (fairly unfortunate) connection with hip-hop artist
and actor Ice Cube. On the penultimate day of their summer meet, the good folks at Del Mar
awarded their patrons with a bonus in having Ice Cube perform after the Del Mar racing card
concluded. As Omaha Beach and other 2yo colts running a 1 mile maiden race on turf rounded
into the stretch, a 22yo would-be concert goer upset that the Ice Cube show was sold-out
started firing shots into the air with his semi-automatic pistol -- local sheriff deputies returned
gun fire injuring the gunman. The gun shots startled Toshio, a horse who was to the outside of
Omaha Beach, causing the horse to bolt and dumping jockey Drayden Van Dyke. Omaha
Beach and rider Flavien Prat were unaware of the firing of the shots and finished are hard
closing 3rd in the debut race. Ice Cube did end up performing after the gunman was taken
away and thanked his fans the next day but noted “Moral of the story: Come see ya homie
Cube…but leave the strap at home”.

As in Ice Cube’s It was a Good Day let’s look at the positives for Omaha Beach:
 - Since that race – Omaha Beach has been no worse than 2nd place including winning his
last 3 races including the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.
- Increasing Beyer and Brisnet speed figures in each of OB’s races.
- The list of those that have come to the Derby as 1st or 2nd favorites (as Omaha Beach is
expected to be) off of an Arkansas Derby win with an upfront running style is quite
impressive: American Pharoah (1st), Bodemeister (2nd), Curlin (3rd), Smarty Jones (1st).
- Omaha Beach did stop the clock 1 tick faster than the older handicap horses (included a
couple of former Derby runners) run earlier on the Oaklawn Park card even though
Omaha Beach running upfront didn’t need to run a faster race to win.
- Omaha Beach breeding is impressive – War Front is one of the US’s most sought after
sires and the dam, Charming, who was a $3.2million yearling purchase has already
produced a 2yo champion and comes from champion bloodlines.
- With 2 slop wins, Omaha Beach is a must include if the track comes up wet.
- Mike Smith dropped Santa Anita winner Roadster in favor of Omaha Beach.

However, lyrics in It was a Good Day reflects absence of negative things over actual good
things “Today I didn't even have to use my A.K. I got to say it was a good day” – but to
properly assess Omaha Beach must look his negatives shown:

- Omaha Beach’s curriculum vitae is not quite that of those named above Arkansas Derby
winners who were top 2 Derby favorites – those others had better speed figs and more
impressive victories.
- Like Maximum Security’s Florida Derby – Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby was
allowed to get away with slooow fractions (47.5,1:12.46, 1:37.53).
- Did not crack a triple digit Brisnet speed figure which has doomed many Derby entrants.
- Omaha Beach has been plagued by quarter cracks and although Richard Mandella has
managed this – it is a potential issue that can prevent Omaha Beach running his best
race.

Looking at the negatives and absorbing the low odds of a favorite, the Locks has looked
elsewhere for the Derby winner. Although, there are scenarios where Omaha Beach can win
the Derby and for this need to include in the mix. Unfortunately, Omaha Beach scratched.
13 Code of Honor 12-1

Owner: William Farish

Trainer: Shug McGaughey III

Jockey: John Velazquez

Sire : Noble Mission (GB) $15,000

Dam: Reunited by Dixie Union

Race Record: 5:2-1-1

CSI Figures: 92-106-95

Code of Honor’s connections (owner, breeder, trainer, jockey) in combination are gold
standard. William Farish’s Lanes End Farm has bred 1 Kentucky Derby winner
(Charismatic) and also 2 2nd place finishers and 1 3rd place finishers – 15 starters in total.
Farish still awaits a Derby victory as owner. Farish was Ambassador of the United
States to the Court of St James's (aka the Ambassador to the UK) under Bush 43 and
those that have held that position is a who’s who in American history (future presidents,
vice presidents, captains of industry) . Included in this group are a few sportsmen
including W. Averell Harriman who owned many racehorses that he bought from the
August Belmont estate but sporting success by those holding the position is not
necessarily guaranteed-- the current UK Ambassador is Woody Johnson, the owner of
the NY Jets. Shug McGaughey has won the Derby with Orb in 2013 but the best horse
he brought to the Derby was Hall of Fame colt Easy Goer in 1989. Shug doesn’t bring
horses just to run in the Derby as 6 out of 7 horses he’s saddled in the Derby finished in
the top half of the field. This will be the 21st mount for jockey John Velazquez and has 2
wins (Animal Kingdom 2011, Always Dreaming 2017) for his efforts. Given success of
the connections – the horse itself has a lot to do with the result -- overall CoH appears
to be a few lengths slower than the top contenders. Speed figures don’t seem to stack
up to get the win but closing style may pick up the pieces and finish in top half of the
field.
14 Win Win Win 12-1

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Jockey: Julian Pimentel

Sire : Hat Trick (JPN)

Dam: Miss Smarty Pants by Smarty Jones

CSI Figures: 111-98-97

Race Record: 6:3-2-1

Win Win Win is a homebred of Charlotte Weber’s Live Oak Plantation. Weber is the grand-
daughter of the founder of Campbell Soup. Live Oak typically uses the word “Souper” as a
naming convention as in Souper Echo, Souper Jaguar, Souper Jackpot, Souper Escape as a
small example of names Live Oak has used for their horses. This colt has won, won, won – 3
wins – 2 at Laurel and 1 in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs but biggest race was
probably his 2nd place by a nose in the Blue Grass which gave the points necessary to get into
the Derby. Although this horse has done nothing wrong in his career – all 6 races in-the-money
– WWW has not won going 2 turns – 2nd in Blue Grass and 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby and did
show a drop of speed figs from the 7 furlong Pasco to WWW’s next 2 longer stakes races.
Looking back others that used the Pasco as a Derby prep saw their speed figs cut when they
extended distances with finishes in the Derby of 16th, 18th, 10th and….3rd (2009 Lock Musket
Man). Consider in the exotics.

15 Master Fencer 50-1

Owner: Katsumi Yoshizawa

Trainer: K Tsunoda

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Sire : Just a Way (JPN)

Dam: Sexy Zamurai by Deputy Minister

Race Record: 6:2-2-0

CSI Figures: xx-xx-xx

Master Fencer is an intriguing entry. Master Fencer will have no issue with 10 furlong distance
that has undone many in their pursuit for the blanket of roses – actually Master Fencer is the
only Derby horse that actually has run the Derby distance of 1 ¼ mile twice before and also has
run 9 furlongs (longest distance run by most of the field) an additional 3 times. Locks
Exclusive: Master Fencer will come off the pace and had the fastest closing 1/4 mile in each of
this colt’s last 4 races including final furlong finishes in the 12s on deeper and slower Japanese
dirt tracks. Despite these positives, Master Fencer doesn’t represent the best of Japan’s 3yos
who generally would race on turf and isn’t even the best of the dirt specialists as 2 others, Oval
Ace and Der Flug appear to be more talented. These two Japanese colts are a combined 6 for
6 in their races to date and received invitations to the Derby ahead of Master Fencer but would
have had to pay a $200k entrant fee due to not having been Triple Crown nominated and thus
declined invitations. Although the Japan Racing Association (JRA) due to the Japanese interest
(horse racing in Japan is treated like a major league sport) in Master Fencer will feature betting
on the Kentucky Derby for the first time (Japan only started allowing betting on non-Japanese
races in 2016), the JRA betting pool for the Derby will be separate from the US pool - thus
expect Master Fencer’s odds to be 50+-1. With the stamina and late kick of Master Fencer –
the Locks needs to keep this colt in the mix for exotics.

16 Game Winner 9-2

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Sire : Candy Ride $80,000

Dam: Indyan Giving by AP Indy

Race Record: 6:4-2-0

CSI Figures: 100-101-101

After finding out that Gary and Mary West made their fortune from a telecommunications
company which started in their garage in Omaha, Nebraska – I looked to see what other
famous people were from Omaha and actually only expected to see one entry – Warren Buffet.
Shockingly found a list of Omahans that is an all-star list – Marlon Brando (is Game Winner a
contender??), Henry & Peter Fonda, the guy “Oz” from American Pie, Fred Astaire, Malcolm X,
Wade Boggs, Nick Nolte, Gabrielle Union (I don’t know if I’ve watched those Gatorade ads too
many times but something tells me that Dwayne Wade will need to find a job to get out of the
house – pronto!), Conor Oberst (check out the music from his latest project, Better Oblivion
Community Center) and 70’s era song-writer Paul Williams. There is so much to like about this
colt:

- Has done nothing wrong in career 4 wins, 2 place finishes.

- Already a 2 turn winner at Churchill Downs
- Despite a 2nd place finish, Trakus data shows that Game Winner ran a faster Santa Anita
Derby than winner Roadster (54.5 ft/sec vs 54.2 ft/sec).
- 2yo champion – although from 1980-2018 only 2 2yo champions have won the Derby
(Street Sense & American Pharoah). In the 2018 Kentucky Derby, 2nd place finisher was
2yo champion Good Magic.
- Winner of Breeder’s Cup Juvenile which showed ability to overcome large field after
being jostled at start.
- Winner of the American Pharoah Stakes (nee Frontrunner Stakes) where the runners of
this Derby prep have a median finish position of 6th (with an expected median finish of
9th).
- Joel Rosario is one of the best jockeys in the land with a Kentucky Derby win (Orb,
2015). In last 4 mounts has an average Derby finish of 4th.

The matchup between Baffert trainees, Improbable (5-1), Game Winner (9-2), Roadster (5-1) is
more anticipated than the Battle of Winterfell (for older readers, read that as ‘Guns and Roses’
Chinese Democracy’).

17 Roadster 5-1

Owner: Speedway Stable LLC

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Sire : Quality Road $150,000

Dam: Ghost Dancing by Silver Ghost

Race Record: 4:3-0-1

CSI Figures (Last 3 Races): 105-104-102

Naming of the horse Roadster doesn’t really have much to do with the ownership’s name
Speedway Stable as one might think. Speedway is named after the Houston, Texas street
Buffalo Speedway which one of the owners Peter Fluor has his roots. Fluor has made money
both from his family’s company the Fluor Corporation, which was involved in the Manhattan
Project, and also from his own energy business. Although his dad had investment in Alleged – a
two time L’Arc winner – Peter Fluor did not get into thoroughbred ownership until 2014. Fluor
has had some nice race fillies and also a colt Collected who ran in the Preakness but Roadster
represents Speedway’s first shot at the Derby. Roadster will go off at low odds given its Santa
Anita Derby win and fact that Bob Baffert (5 time Derby winner, 11 of 29 in-the-money finishes)
trains. Roadster is clearly a talent – 3 wins in 4 starts – a 3rd in its other start – beating 2yo
champion Game Winner and Instagrand, a horse that last year people were tabbing as a
superhorse. However, at such low odds, want to avoid some of the negatives that Roadster
has:

- Been plagued with quarter cracks on multiple hooves and has had corrective surgery for
breathing – admittedly, these haven’t impacted Roadster’s training schedule.
- Missing out on recording a triple digit Brisnet fig in all races
- Mike Smith jumping off Roadster in favor of Omaha Beach.

The Locks equates the Baffert contender trainees with the Guns and Roses trio of Axl Rose,
Slash and Izzy Stadlin. Analysis shows that Improbable is Izzy, Game Winner is Axl and
Roadster is Slash. Improbable is the true underrated talent with Game Winner and Roadster as
puffed out showmen. Improbable hits the board, the other two find themselves in a trashed
hotel room at the Chateau Marmont.

18 Long Range Toddy 30-1

Owner: Willis Horton Racing LLC

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Jon Court

Sire : Take Charge Indy

Dam: Pleasant Song by Unbridled’s Song

Race Record: 7:4-1-1

CSI Figures: 110-94-101

Long Range Toddy is named after owner Willis Horton’s daughter-in-law’s nephew. Horton
admitted “I’ve named lots of horses and I’m running out of names” which reads that the Todd
that this horse is named after is not in Horton’s last will and testament. Since 2000, only I’ll
Have Another and the improbable Mine that Bird have won the Derby after not being the
favorite in any of their prep races to the Derby. Take note that no Kentucky Derby winner has
broken its maiden at Remington Park. Long Range Toddy, however, looks to buck the trend to
become an unlikely Derby winner, as LRT does join Game Winner and Maximum Security as
the only horses in the field with 4 wins and also has increasing speed figs. But LRT’s Arkansas
Derby was as smooth as UK’s exit from the EU – pressed and faded to 6th – 14+ lengths behind
the winner – this finish could be explained by not taking to the sloppy track. Despite some
positives overall LRT seems to be a few lengths slower than the rest of the top contenders and
although should outrun its odds will not be in the mix at the end.

19 Spinoff 30-1

Owner: Wertheimer et Frere

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Manny Franco

Sire : Hard Spun $40,000

Dam: Zaftig by Gone West

Race Record: 4:2-1-1

CSI Figures:101-110-105

Amongst the finery at the Kentucky Derby will be the owners of the House of Chanel who also
happen to be the owners of Spinoff – French billionaire brothers, Alain and Gerard Wertheimer.
Horses running under the famous Wetheimer silks have also won the Epsom Derby and the
French Derby as well as Prix du L’ Arc de Triomphe. As expected from a Wertheimer et Frere
horse, breeding will be as fine as the Bordeaux wine that the Wetheimers make at their Saint-
Emilion wineries. Hard Spun, Spinoff’s sire, was 2nd in the Derby and the mare Zaftig had
recorded the 2nd highest Beyer figure for any 3yo in 2008 while winning the Grade 1 Acorn.
Spinoff -- lightly raced with good speed figs and a pressing style that has proved successful in
last several years. The Chanel in-house color consultant was well aware that out of the 6
primary & secondary colors that the Wertheimer colors of blue is the most cited color of the
silks of Derby winners since 1908. Given this- Spinoff has a chance to spring the upset. Also to
note that although Fair Grounds doesn’t have Trakus data but if it did – would likely to show
that Spinoff - who ran 4 wide most of the Louisiana Derby -- ran several lengths longer and thus
a faster race than winner By My Standards. The reason why Spinoff ran 4 wide that day,
however, may be the colt’s undoing, as the horse did not break well. Looking at other of the
colt’s races appears that getting off to a good start is an issue. Combined with the facts that
the horse has success when involved in the race early and given the 20 horse field with more
than 3/4s of the entries looking to be running on or just off the pace – I feel that Spinoff may
not be able to run his race especially springing from gate 19 and in the end will not be strutting
down the Churchill Downs catwalk with its garland of roses.
Although the Wertheimer’s will have no trouble getting into the country to watch their horse’s
race, those that actually are experienced to take care of Spinoff and the other Derby horses
may not. Spinoff’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, as well as many of the major trainers who applied for
H1B visas to support their stables during the peak spring to fall season, had all 50 of his visa
applications denied. Trainers have cited that they will have to cut down their stable sizes as
they feel it will be impossible to find those not requiring visas who will take the jobs much less
finding that many that have actual experience caring for horses. There is a definite knock-on
effect on the industry ->less horses in racing stables at the track –>smaller fields of horses
enter the gate –> less competitive races -> less betting –>less money to pay in purses back to
owners/trainers –> less money to buy horses –> less money into breeding and stabling horses
on farms. Think that White House staffer Stephen Miller should go spend those dateless
nights watching Star Trek https://twitter.com/dabeard/status/892963465257783328 rather than
trying to figure out what immigration policies are good for the American economy.

20 Country House 30-1

Owner: Shields Jr., Mrs. J. V., McFadden, Jr

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Sire : Lookin at Lucky $20,000

Dam: Quake Lake by War Chant

Race Record: 5:1-2-0

CSI Figures: 102-100-99

The owner/breeder of Country House was the late Joseph V (Jerry) Shields Jr., a Georgetown
graduate who made money on Wall Street. Shields was a long time owner of some very good
racemares, Country House represents the first time having a horse run in the Derby. His wife
Maury and nephew Guinness (great name) McFadden has taken over the mantle of ownership
after the October 2018 passing of Mr. Shields. Don’t expect to see Country House in the early
stages of the Kentucky Derby – Country House usually gets away slowly and then saves his
running for the stretch. Unfortunately, there is no Trakus data for CH’s last 3 races but while
running 5 wide,4 wide, and 5 wide, respectively, on the track would add several lengths to a
race – ultimately showing that CH ran faster than its placing. Despite this fact, CH only has 1
win to show for its efforts. As we noted, single win Derby entrants don’t fare as well as those
that have had their picture taken more often. It is possible that this one will pick up some
pieces and is likely to finish in top half of field but doesn’t appear to be one that will threaten
the winner.
21 Bodexpress 30-1

Owner: Top Racing LLC, Global Thoroughbred

Trainer: Gustavo DelGado

Jockey: Chris Landeros

Sire : Bodemeister $25,000

Dam: Pied a Terre (City Zip)

Race Record: 5:0-3-0

CSI Figures: 84-104-98

Omaha Beach’s defection due to an entrapped epiglottis allows Bodexpress to move from the
Also Eligible list to the starting gate. Bodexpress in 5 tries has not won a race. Maidens since
1937 have been less successful than a Microsoft Zune – 0 wins in 11 tries and median finish
place of 14th. Although, there have been 3 maidens that have won the Derby, Brokers Tip
(1933), Sir Barton (1919) and Buchanan (1884), it will not happen in 2019. Won the Road to the
Derby points to get into this position with a 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby as a 71-1 shot.
Hard pass.

The Locks Bets are:

$40 Win #8 Tacitus = $40

$1 Exacta All over #8 Tacitus = $19

$5WP #2 Tax = $10

$1 Exacta #2, #5, #8, #16, #19 over #2, #5, #8, #16, #19, #11, #14, #15 = $35

$1 Trifecta Box #2, #5, #8, #16, #19 = $60

Total = $164.
Kentucky Oaks

◎ 14 Restless Rider 6-1

○ 4 Bellafina 2-1

▲ 10 Champagne Anyone 6-1

△ 5 Flor de La Mar 20-1 (dry track) // 1 Out for a Spin 15-1 (wet track)

2000 Guineas – first leg of the English Triple Crown

◎ 8 Kick On 25-1

○ 18 Scardu 7-1

▲ 20 Ten Sovereigns 9/2

△ 2 Al Hilalee 12-1

△ 1 Advertise 8-1