Indonesia - Daily Risk Assessment

Issue No. 67/2020 | 6 April 2020

HEALTH MINISTRY REVIEWS APPLICATIONS FOR

COUNTRY HEADLINES
SOCIAL RESTRICTIONS IN REGIONS
The Ministry of Health has issued a regulation outlining procedures for the implementation
Ministry of Health COVID-19
of restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) across the country. The
Update
Ministerial Regulation No.9/2020 on large-scale social restrictions (PSBB), which was signed
-Page 2
by Minister of Health Terawan Agus Putranto on 3 April, stipulates that regional heads who
want to implement PSBB have to submit an epidemiological study, data and maps showing
COVID-19 Cases by Indonesian
the spread of the virus in their region. The application will be reviewed by a team appointed
Province
by the minister, who can approve or deny the request in consultation with the COVID-19 task
-Page 3
force chief Doni Monardo, who also leads the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB).
Monardo is also allowed to submit a PSBB request directly to the minister. No region has yet
Flash Flooding Hits Central
been granted permission to impose large-scale social restrictions as of writing. Jakarta
Kalimantan & South Sulawesi
governor Anies Baswedan said that the provincial administration sent a formal request last
-Page 4
week to impose restrictions in the capital, however it was submitted before the Ministry of
Health issued the regulation. The request was reportedly under review by the ministry on 5
April, however it was unclear if a decision had been reached as of writing.

Hill & Associates Assessment

The procedure to obtain permission for social restrictions has been criticised as “overly bureaucratic” and has prompted concern
that local governments could be too late in implementing measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. Regency and city leaders are
reportedly still required to consult with their provincial governor before seeking approval from the Ministry of Health to impose a
PSBB status. The ministry regulation also requires regional leaders to provide data of COVID-19 cases under surveillance (PDP) and
those confirmed using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Experts argue that such a requirement is too restrictive due to
bottlenecks in the PCR testing process. Indonesia has only conducted about 11,000 PCR tests so far due to insufficient preparedness
on the part of laboratories and a shortage of PCR testing kits. Meanwhile, Jakarta’s satellite cities have not agreed with a call from
Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan to implement social restrictions across the Greater Jakarta area. (Continued on P.2)

TOP ISSUES
ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS & SOCIAL CONFLICT
Police detained teenagers following clashes between rival youth groups in Jakarta and East Nusa Tenggara. (Page 4)

HEALTH & DISEASE

Heath authorities in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) recorded another spike in dengue fever cases. (Page 4)
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(Continued from P.1) The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) spokesman Agus Wibowo said on Sunday 5 April that a
number of regions were set to impose large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) as of Monday 6 April, however he did not name the
regions. The Ministry of Health regulation states that the ministry must make a decision on PSBB within two days of a regional
government submitting its request. The restrictions can be implemented for 14 days and extended depending on the situation.
The PSBB includes the closure of schools and offices, limitation of religious activities, social and cultural events, as well as
transportation restrictions. The ministry regulation also stipulates public services and certain types of businesses that are
required to maintain operations, including supermarkets, banks and pharmacies.

The Ministry of Health announced 181 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in Indonesia
to 2,273. The ministry spokesman said that the death toll stood at 198. The total number of recovered patients increased to 164.
Jakarta recorded 96 new confirmed cases, bringing the total tally to 1,124. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Manpower, Transmigration and
Energy Agency said that 30,137 workers have been laid off by 3,348 companies since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early
March. The agency also said that 132,279 workers from 14,697 companies have been forced to take unpaid leave. The statistics
were not broken down into sectors.

Ministry of Health COVID-19 Update: As of 0900hrs (WIB) on 6 April, of the 11,242 people examined in Indonesia, 2,273 were
COVID-19 positive, 8,969 and were COVID-19 negative. The government has confirmed 198 deaths, while 164 have recovered.
Source: http://infeksiemerging.kemkes.go.id/

COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia, 5 April at 0800hrs (WIB)

2
COVID-19 Cases by Indonesian Province, 5 April 1600hrs (WIB)

Province Cases Deaths Recovered

Aceh 5

Bali 35 2 18

Banten 177 17 7

Bangka Belitung 2 1

Bengkulu 2 1

Jakarta 1124 95 56

Jambi 2

West Java 252 28 12

Central Java 120 18 14

East Java 188 14 30

Central Kalimantan 11 4

East Kalimantan 30 1 1

North Kalimantan 8

South Kalimantan 16

West Kalimantan 10 2 2

Lampung 11 1

Maluku 1 1

North Maluku 1

Papua 26 1 3

West Papua 2 1

Riau 11 1

Riau Islands 9 1 2

Central Sulawesi 4

North Sulawesi 3 1

South Sulawesi 83 5 9

Southeast Sulawesi 6 1

West Sulawesi 1

North Sumatra 25 4

South Sumatra 16 2 1

West Sumatra 8

West Nusa Tenggara 7

Yogyakarta 34 3 1

Unknown 42

Total 2273 198 164

Sources: Ministry of Health; National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB)
(Note: Some provincial data may be more current than ministry data)

3
PHYSICAL RISKS

ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS & SOCIAL CONFLICT

Youth Groups Brawl in Jakarta & East Nusa Tenggara

Police detained a number of teenagers following clashes between rival youth groups in Jakarta and East Nusa Tenggara over the
weekend. Police detained four people involved in a clash on Jl. Panjang in Kebon Jeruk, West Jakarta, on Sunday 5 April. The arrest
followed reports from residents that dozens of youth had gathered on the street armed with rocks and bottles. Police also seized
knives and machetes. A confrontation between youth groups was also reported in Kupang on Saturday 4 April. Two people were
injured. Police arrested two people over the violence.

HEALTH & DISEASE | FIRE & SAFETY

NTT Records Spike in Dengue Cases

Heath authorities in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) recorded another spike in dengue fever cases with more than 200 patients
treated for the disease in less than a week. The NTT provincial administration reported 4,518 cases and 48 deaths as of 1 April
after reporting around 4,300 cases and 47 deaths on 26 March. Kupang city saw the biggest increase, recording more than 100
new cases in five days. Hundreds of new cases have also been recorded in Sikka, Belu and Alor regencies. The highest number of
deaths from January to March this year was recorded in Sikka with 14, followed by Belu with seven and six in Kupang city.

Comment: Dengue fever outbreaks have occurred in a number of regions this year, including West Nusa Tenggara, Lampung,
West Java, Riau, South Sumatra and Jakarta. Health authorities have recorded a total of more than 10,000 cases this year.

NATURAL DISASTERS

Flash Flooding Hits Central Kalimantan & South Sulawesi

A flash flood inundated hundreds of houses in East Teweh, North Barito district, Central Kalimantan, after the Teweh River
overflowed on Saturday 4 April. The flooding reached two to four metres deep in some areas before it began to subside on
Sunday afternoon. The flood submerged more than 600 houses, markets, schools, mosques, churches, and bridges. A number of
residents evacuated to higher ground. Meanwhile, heavy rain triggered flash flooding and landslides in Tana Toraja regency,
South Sulawesi, in the early hours of Sunday 5 April, leaving at least four people dead. The Regional Disaster Mitigation Agency
(BPBD) reported that three of the victims were members of the same family in Randanbatu village, South Makale district. One
fatality occurred in Rantetayo district. The landslide also cut some roads in the region, including the main route between Tana
Toraja and North Toraja.

4
 INDONESIA EARTHQUAKE ALERT MONDAY 6 APRIL
Day / Date Time RS Depth Location Remarks
WIB Km
Mon 6 Apr 05.42 5.0 10 17 km NE of Enggano, Bengkulu No reports of damage, injury or tsunami risk.

Mon 6 Apr 01.37 6.1 10 122 km NW of Jailolo, North Maluku No reports of damage, injury or tsunami risk.

Source: Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)

INDONESIA VOLCANO UPDATE MONDAY 6 APRIL

Standardised coding by the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI)
Volcano / Mount Province Alert Level Alert Code Interpretation
1. Sinabung North Sumatra 3 If trends continue, eruption is possible within
2. Karangetang North Sulawesi Warning Orange two weeks.
3. Agung Bali (Siaga)
4. Soputan North Sulawesi 2 Magmatic, tectonic or hydrothermal
5. Slamet Central Java Caution Yellow disturbances - no eruption imminent.
6. Anak Krakatau Lampung (Waspada)
7. Merapi Central Java
8. Ili Lewotolok East Nusa Tenggara
9. Banda Api Maluku
10. Bromo East Java
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Geological Agency (Badan Geologi ESDM)

ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE

INDONESIA HIGH WAVE ALERT MONDAY 6 APRIL

Height Location Remarks

2.5 – 4.0 m Southern Sunda Strait, waters south of Banten, Indian Ocean south of Banten, Hazardous for fishing vessels,
waters west of Lampung, western Sunda Strait, Indian Ocean west of Lampung. motorised wooden vessels, tugboats,
LCT and ferries.
Source: Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)

5
 JAKARTA WEATHER FORECAST MONDAY 6 – SATURDAY 11 APRIL
Date Forecast Conditions: Day Forecast Conditions: Evening
Mon Thunderstorms likely. Potential for flooding rains. Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. Low
6 Apr High 32C. Winds WNW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance around 25C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain
of rain 100%. 50%.
Tue Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered
7 Apr mainly cloudy during the afternoon with thunderstorms mainly before midnight. Low near
thunderstorms likely. High 31C. Winds W at 15 to 25C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.
25 km/h. Chance of rain 80%.
Wed Thunderstorms. High 31C. Winds NW at 10 to 15 Variably cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low
8 Apr km/h. Chance of rain 80%. around 25C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain
60%.
Thu Thunderstorms. High 32C. Winds NW at 10 to 15 Scattered thunderstorms, especially overnight. Low
9 Apr km/h. Chance of rain 80%. around 25C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain
40%.
Fri Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then Scattered thunderstorms. Low around 25C. Winds
10 Apr mainly cloudy during the afternoon with light and variable. Chance of rain 50%.
thunderstorms likely. High 32C. Winds NW at 10
to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 80%.
Sat Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 31C. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low near 25C.
11 Apr Winds NW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 50%. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.

Source: The Jakarta Observatory

JAKARTA AIR QUALITY INDEX MONDAY 6 APRIL

Source: Airvisual.com at 1300hrs (WIB)

6
UPCOMING EVENTS DIARY

Public
Date Event Remarks
Holiday

Fri 10 Apr Good Friday Yes Observed by Christians nationwide.

Thu 9 Apr – Sun 19 Apr Indonesia International Motor Show No JIExpo, Kemayoran, Jakarta
(IIMS) 2020

Thu 23 Apr Start of Muslim fasting month of No Muslims nationwide fast during daylight hours, with
Ramadan (date subject to government additional evening prayers and religious activities.
confirmation)

Fri 1 May Labour Day Yes Public Holiday

Thu 7 May Waisak Day; Buddha’s Birthday Yes Observed by Buddhists nationwide.

Tue 12 May Commemoration of the 22nd anniversary No Widespread riots in Jakarta followed fatal student
of the May 1998 riots shootings which have never been fully resolved. Student
demonstrations likely in observation of the day.

Thu 21 May Ascension Day of Jesus Christ Yes Public Holiday

Sun 24 May – Mon 25 May Idul Fitri (dates subject to government Yes Culmination of Muslim fasting month of Ramadan with
confirmation) two days of festivities celebrated nationwide.

Mon 1 Jun Pancasila Day Yes Commemoration of the declaration of the state
“Pancasila” ideology.

7
COUNTRY RISK RATING

Terrorism Crime Ethnic, Religious & Social Health Risks & Services
Conflict
H (B3) M (C2) H (B3) H (B3)
Natural Disasters Corruption & Fraud Business Ethics & Compliance Utilities & Infrastructure
H (B3) H (C3) M (C2) H (C3)

Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix - Level of Risk:

Probability Consequence Rating

Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Rating
1 2 3 4 5

A (almost certain) H H E E E

B (likely) M H H E E

C (possible) L M H E E

D (unlikely) L L M H E
E (rare) L L M H H

Legend:

E Extreme risk Immediate action required

H High risk Senior management attention needed
M Moderate risk Management responsibility must be specified

L Low risk Managed through routine procedures

8
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