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Furnace Event Tree

Risk Risk
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE Outcome Prob. Matrix Consequence IsoRisk Category
0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A
Fatality/Serious
Personnel in vicinity. 2 hours per burn, equip
0.083 shift. 2/24 = 1/12 1 1 1 1 1 1 # damage 9.83E-06 E I-Low 6 3

Early ignition of gas release.

Flash fire. (AEAT, "Longford
Plant Quantitative Risk
Assessment - CSP/GP1")
0.05 0.083 0.083333333 0 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A

Leak from weld seam

(DNV - Process
Equipment Leak
Frequency Data for Use in
2.36E-03 QRA 2012 - PP 36) 0.05 0.05 0.083 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A

Furnace
overpressure
beyond MAWP
of 5 bar but <= No personnel or equipment
1 21% MAWP 0.05 0.917 damage 1 1 1 1 1 # Near Miss 1.08E-04 D Near Miss 0 #N/A

Personnel in field could be Fatality/ Serious

affected by VC ignition (and burn, equip
0.05 0.7 overpressure) 1 1 1 1 # damage 1.57E-05 E I-Low 9 3

Late ignition and VCE (Estimated

from HSE data; Spencer and
Rew, 1997; also AIChE CCPS
Guidelines for Estimating the
Flammable Mass of a
Vapor Cloud). Less than 1 ton
0.05 0.01 released 0.7 0.7 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A

LPG Vapor Toxic cloud No personnel or equipment

0.95 formation 0.01 0.01 0.3 damage 1 1 1 # Near Miss 6.73E-06 E Near Miss 0 #N/A
0.01 0 0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A
0.01 0 0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A

Personnel in vicinity. 2 hours

0.01 0.083 per shift. 2/24 = 1/12 1 1 1 1 # Near Miss 1.85E-04 D I-Low 104 2

No ignition. Toxic cloud travels

0.99 downwind 0.083 0.083333333 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A

Operator responds and closes EBV

0 0.3 using local panel, without proper PPE # Fatality 3.05E-04 D I-Low 172 2

Local EBV panel is

0 0.5 downwind of furnace 1 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A

Operator responds and closes EBV

0.917 Personnel not in vicinity 0 0 0.7 using local panel, using proper PPE # Near Miss 7.12E-04 D Near Miss 0 #N/A

Local EBV panel is not

downwind of furnace.
Operator responds and
closes EBV using local
0.5 panel 0.001 0.001017308 # Near Miss 1.02E-03 C Near Miss 0 #N/A
0 0 # 0.00E+00 #N/A #N/A
0.99764 No failure 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 # 9.98E-01 A Near Miss 0 #N/A

0 1 290

ExxonMobil Chemical Company

Furnace event tree Event Tree Builder ver 2 10/30/2019