Info

Info sheet for data collector

comment:
units:
nsheet SheetName Header Index DataType Scenario MultiIndexName
1 CropMarkets 21 1 1
2 CropDem 21 1 2 sCropDem
4 DemElasticity 21 1 2
5 CropMinDem 21 1 2 sFoodSecurity
6 CropValue 21 1 2 sCropVal
7 CropFarmValue 21 1 2 sCropVal
8 CropTransport 21 1 1
9 TransportCost 21 1 2
10 NationalProd 21 1 2
11 CountryStats 21 1 1
MatrixName ColIndexName Update OnlyCols
1
aCropDem 1
aDemEla 1
aMinDem 1
aCropVal 1
aFarmVal 1
1
aTransCost 1
vCropProd 1
1
Crop Markets
Description of crop markets

SOURCES

Hard coded: "ExternalMarket" as keyword for markets that have an

external crop supply curve (out of the study area)
REM: any other value for cmarket_type has no effect

#Local supply losses

#Country of crop #Type of crop
(NOT IMPLEMENTED
market market
YET)
units:
ncmarket cmarket_country cmarket_type aSupLoss
CmAngola Angola
CmBotswana Botswana
CmMalawi Malawi
CmMozambique Mozambique
CmNamibia Namibia
CmTanzania Tanzania
CmZambia Zambia
CmZimbabwe Zimbabwe
CmWorldMarket World ExternalMarket
Crop demand (aCropDem)
Crop demand characteristics

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

aCropDem: http://www.fao.org/faostat , Food Balance Sheet, Domestic Supply quantity
Future demand (2030, 2050): RELATIVE INCREASE TO CURRENT DEMAND
2030 Fruits & Oilseeds
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/impact-projections-demand-agricultural-products-extended-country-level-results-2017-gf
Angola 2.0 1.4
Botswana 1.5 1.4
REM: use of average demand growth Malawi 2.3 1.7
REM: the world market demand for crops that are not Mozambiqu 2.1 1.4
stimulants, tobacco or sugarcane is considered as 0 Namibia 1.6 1.3
as almost no exports out of the Zambezi countries for Tanzania 2.0 1.6
these crops are observed Zambia 2.4 1.7
REM: assumed to remain steady (but can be exported to world market) Zimbabwe 1.4 1.1

#SCENARIO
1000t/year ncrop
nagmscenario ncmarket cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice
base CmAngola 408 28 100 39 8 7 10
CmBotswana 0 2 1 1 0 0 0
CmMalawi 3280 189 841 2436 253 323 63
CmMozambique 1034 104 83 242 35 52 74
CmNamibia 0 7 3 7 1 1 0
CmTanzania 167 59 153 138 32 38 35
CmZambia 777 158 95 1313 174 20 28
CmZimbabwe 142 378 125 1017 196 45 66
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
future2030 CmAngola 453 52 203 72 11 13 19
CmBotswana 0 2 1 1 0 0 0
CmMalawi 4864 310 1902 3991 432 583 103
CmMozambique 1528 160 173 370 49 92 113
CmNamibia 0 11 5 10 1 2 1
CmTanzania 271 98 303 230 51 70 58
CmZambia 1306 284 227 2354 294 40 51
CmZimbabwe 164 416 180 1119 222 54 72
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
future2050 CmAngola 522 70 282 97 11 18 25
CmBotswana 0 2 2 1 0 0 0
CmMalawi 6906 451 4130 5811 696 991 150
CmMozambique 1830 197 305 458 54 139 139
CmNamibia 0 14 7 13 1 2 1
CmTanzania 378 139 520 326 71 112 82
CmZambia 1901 445 471 3690 429 69 80
CmZimbabwe 164 459 305 1235 232 66 80
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
noexport CmAngola 453 52 203 72 11 13 19
CmBotswana 0 2 1 1 0 0 0
CmMalawi 4864 310 1902 3991 432 583 103
CmMozambique 1528 160 173 370 49 92 113
CmNamibia 0 11 5 10 1 2 1
CmTanzania 271 98 303 230 51 70 58
CmZambia 1306 284 227 2354 294 40 51
CmZimbabwe 164 416 180 1119 222 54 72
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SE TO CURRENT DEMAND (IFPRI)
Cereals Pulses Roots & Average 2050 Fruits & OilseedsCereals Pulses Roots &
1.8 1.7 1.1 1.6 Angola 2.8 1.4 2.5 2.4 1.3
1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Botswana 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6
1.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 Malawi 4.9 2.8 2.4 3.1 2.1
1.5 1.8 1.5 1.6 Mozambiqu 3.7 1.5 1.9 2.7 1.8
1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 Namibia 2.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.4
1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 Tanzania 3.4 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.3
1.8 2.0 1.7 1.9 Zambia 4.9 2.5 2.8 3.4 2.4
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 Zimbabwe 2.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2

roots stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable

56 1 1 29 49
0 0 0 1 1
2912 6 6 2228 275
142 3 3 424 62
2 0 0 2 4
105 0 0 106 67
142 4 4 2424 267
40 8 8 2231 139
0 99000 99000 99000 0
62 2 2 0 99
0 0 0 0 1
4318 11 11 2 621
210 5 5 0 130
2 0 0 0 6
170 1 1 0 133
239 8 8 2 637
46 10 10 2 201
0 99000 99000 99000 0
72 2 2 0 138
0 0 0 0 2
6131 19 19 2 1348
251 8 8 0 228
3 1 1 0 9
237 1 1 0 229
348 13 13 2 1319
46 13 13 2 340
0 99000 99000 99000 0
62 2 2 0 99
0 0 0 0 1
4318 11 11 2 621
210 5 5 0 130
2 0 0 0 6
170 1 1 0 133
239 8 8 2 637
46 10 10 2 201
0 99000 99000 99000 0
Average
2.1
1.6
3.0
2.3
1.8
2.6
3.2
1.5
Crop demand elasticity (aDemEla)
Crop demand characteristics

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

REM: THIS IS NOT IMPLEMENTED IN THE ZAMBEZI STUDY

Most of the crop demands are found very inelastic

ncrop
ncmarket cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice roots
CmAngola -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmBotswana -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmMalawi -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmMozambique -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmNamibia -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmTanzania -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmZambia -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmZimbabwe -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
CmWorldMarket -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
-0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
Crop minimum demand (aMinDem)
Food security constraints

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

REM: The food security constraint is to fulfill the demand for

cereals, roots and pulses (also when import costs are higher
than the willingness-to-pay of demand)

#SCENARIO
1000t/year ncrop
nfoodsecurityncmarket cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice
base CmAngola 408 28 0 39 0 7 10
CmBotswana 0 2 0 1 0 0 0
CmMalawi 3280 189 0 2436 0 323 63
CmMozambique 1034 104 0 242 0 52 74
CmNamibia 0 7 0 7 0 1 0
CmTanzania 167 59 0 138 0 38 35
CmZambia 777 158 0 1313 0 20 28
CmZimbabwe 142 378 0 1017 0 45 66
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
future2030 CmAngola 453 52 0 72 0 13 19
CmBotswana 0 2 0 1 0 0 0
CmMalawi 4864 310 0 3991 0 583 103
CmMozambique 1528 160 0 370 0 92 113
CmNamibia 0 11 0 10 0 2 1
CmTanzania 271 98 0 230 0 70 58
CmZambia 1306 284 0 2354 0 40 51
CmZimbabwe 164 416 0 1119 0 54 72
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
future2050 CmAngola 522 70 0 97 0 18 25
CmBotswana 0 2 0 1 0 0 0
CmMalawi 6906 451 0 5811 0 991 150
CmMozambique 1830 197 0 458 0 139 139
CmNamibia 0 14 0 13 0 2 1
CmTanzania 378 139 0 326 0 112 82
CmZambia 1901 445 0 3690 0 69 80
CmZimbabwe 164 459 0 1235 0 66 80
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
nomindem CmAngola 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmBotswana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmMalawi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmMozambique 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmNamibia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmTanzania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmZambia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmZimbabwe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CmWorldMarket 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
roots stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable
56 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
2912 0 0 0 0
142 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0
105 0 0 0 0
142 0 0 0 0
40 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
62 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
4318 0 0 0 0
210 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0
170 0 0 0 0
239 0 0 0 0
46 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
72 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
6131 0 0 0 0
251 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0
237 0 0 0 0
348 0 0 0 0
46 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Crop demand value (aCropVal)
Value / willingness-to-pay of crop demand

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

FAOstats sources (http://www.fao.org/faostat) :

Divide Value of National production by production (most avilable data)
Producer prices
REM: In both cases it is the farm gate price (it only captures producer surplus)
SADC crop prices:
https://www.sadc.int/information-services/sadc-statistics/sadc-statistics-yearbook-201/
Other source:
http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/domestic

REM: Calculated as average of the other countries

REM: We do not consider elasticity of the demand

Value of Value of Value of Value of Value of

#SCENARIO National National National National National
Prod Prod Prod Prod Prod
$/t ncrop
SCEN_cropval ncmarket cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses
base CmAngola 278 281 260 347 804 1300
CmBotswana 367 406 414 248 219 1156
CmMalawi 330 648 458 240 873 1128
CmMozambique 163 143 390 193 298 1156
CmNamibia 367 233 414 248 503 1156
CmTanzania 367 416 212 299 314 1156
CmZambia 697 575 727 158 293 1156
CmZimbabwe 367 262 414 308 462 1039
CmWorldMarket 395 268 435 239 423 836
base+20% CmAngola 278 281 260 347 804 1300
CmBotswana 367 406 414 248 219 1156
CmMalawi 330 648 458 240 873 1128
CmMozambique 163 143 390 193 298 1156
CmNamibia 367 233 414 248 503 1156
CmTanzania 367 416 212 299 314 1156
CmZambia 697 575 727 158 293 1156
CmZimbabwe 367 262 414 308 462 1039
CmWorldMarket 474 322 522 287 508 1003
base-20% CmAngola 278 281 260 347 804 1300
CmBotswana 367 406 414 248 219 1156
CmMalawi 330 648 458 240 873 1128
CmMozambique 163 143 390 193 298 1156
CmNamibia 367 233 414 248 503 1156
CmTanzania 367 416 212 299 314 1156
CmZambia 697 575 727 158 293 1156
CmZimbabwe 367 262 414 308 462 1039
CmWorldMarket 316 214 348 191 338 669
ONS/DATA

Import Value of Value of Value of Value of

SADC
price (lack National National National National
stats
data) Prod Prod Prod Prod

rice roots stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable

590 423 647 647 50 281
454 552 945 945 50 544
663 522 792 792 50 562
319 484 1395 1395 50 754
412 552 945 945 50 459
199 552 945 945 50 407
611 780 945 945 50 801
510 552 3012 3012 50 544
528 391 5909 5545 50 817
590 423 647 647 50 281
454 552 945 945 50 544
663 522 792 792 50 562
319 484 1395 1395 50 754
412 552 945 945 50 459
199 552 945 945 50 407
611 780 945 945 50 801
510 552 3012 3012 50 544
634 469 7091 6654 60 980
590 423 647 647 50 281
454 552 945 945 50 544
663 522 792 792 50 562
319 484 1395 1395 50 754
412 552 945 945 50 459
199 552 945 945 50 407
611 780 945 945 50 801
510 552 3012 3012 50 544
422 313 4727 4436 40 654
Crop farm value (aFarmVal)
Only active if crop market is inactive - then crop production is valuated directly at farming zone - ignoring transport and de

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

FAOstats sources (http://www.fao.org/faostat) :

Divide Value of National production by production (most avilable data)
Producer prices
REM: In both cases it is the farm gate price (it only captures producer surplus)
SADC crop prices:
https://www.sadc.int/information-services/sadc-statistics/sadc-statistics-yearbook-201/
Other source:
http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/domestic

REM: Calculated as average of the other countries

REM: We do not consider elasticity of the demand

Value of Value of Value of Value of Value of Import Value of

#SCENARIO National National National National National price (lack National
Prod Prod Prod Prod Prod data) Prod
$/t ncrop
SCEN_cropfarmva
ncountry cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice
base Angola 278 281 260 347 804 1300 590
Botswana 367 406 414 248 219 1156 454
Malawi 330 648 458 240 873 1128 663
Mozambique 163 143 390 193 298 1156 319
Namibia 367 233 414 248 503 1156 412
SouthAfrica 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tanzania 367 416 212 299 314 1156 199
Zambia 697 575 727 158 293 1156 611
Zimbabwe 367 262 414 308 462 1039 510
World 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
noring transport and demands

Value of Value of Value of

SADC
National National National
stats
Prod Prod Prod

roots stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable

423 1712 2045 50 281
552 5909 3703 50 544
522 2936 4197 50 562
484 2521 4179 50 754
552 3554 2862 50 459
0 0 0 0 0
552 2382 2970 50 407
780 2736 3866 50 801
552 2194 5545 50 544
0 0 0 0 0
Crop transport
Crop transport characteristics

SOURCES

REM: A crop transport route is considered between all crop markets of neighboring countries
aTransLoss: No Source

#Exporting crop #Importing crop #Crop transport

comment:
market market loss

units: id id -
nctrans aTransIn aTransOut aTransLoss
CtMalMoz CmMalawi CmMozambique 0.01
CtMozMal CmMozambique CmMalawi 0.01
CtZamZim CmZambia CmZimbabwe 0.01
CtZimZam CmZimbabwe CmZambia 0.01
CtZimMoz CmZimbabwe CmMozambique 0.01
CtMozZim CmMozambique CmZimbabwe 0.01
CtZamAng CmZambia CmAngola 0.01
CtAngZam CmAngola CmZambia 0.01
CtMalTaz CmMalawi CmTanzania 0.01
CtTazMal CmTanzania CmMalawi 0.01
CtMozZam CmMozambique CmZambia 0.01
CtZamMoz CmZambia CmMozambique 0.01
CtZimBot CmZimbabwe CmBotswana 0.01
CtBotZim CmBotswana CmZimbabwe 0.01
CtZamNam CmZambia CmNamibia 0.01
CtNamZam CmNamibia CmZambia 0.01
CtMalWm CmMalawi CmWorldMarket 0.01
CtMozWm CmMozambique CmWorldMarket 0.01
CtZamWm CmZambia CmWorldMarket 0.01
CtZimWm CmZimbabwe CmWorldMarket 0.01
CtTazWm CmTanzania CmWorldMarket 0.01
CtWmMal CmWorldMarket CmMalawi 0.01
CtWmMoz CmWorldMarket CmMozambique 0.01
CtWmZam CmWorldMarket CmZambia 0.01
CtWmZim CmWorldMarket CmZimbabwe 0.01
CtWmTaz CmWorldMarket CmTanzania 0.01
CtWmAng CmWorldMarket CmAngola 0.01
Crop transport cost (aTransCost)
Crop transport costs among crop markets

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

Source: FAOstats (http://www.fao.org/faostat)

World market price are Import value/Import quantity for Southern Africa market
Transport costs from and to WM = Observed Import Price - World market price (minimum 0)
For stimulants transport cost to WM = World market price - Observed export price (minimum 0)
Transport costs among countries A and B = ABS(Obs Import price A - Obs Imp price B)

REM: Transport cost data is very scarce therefore we do the assumptions as specified above
As no country specific data for cassava, same transport costs as roots are assumed
999: no export to world market (as observed)

$/t ncrop
nctrans cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice roots
CtMalMoz 344 371 83 52 686 64 536 344
CtMozMal 344 371 83 52 686 64 536 344
CtZamZim 331 215 65 144 6 407 106 101
CtZimZam 331 215 65 144 6 407 106 101
CtZimMoz 191 207 74 115 164 39 233 191
CtMozZim 191 207 74 115 164 39 233 191
CtZamAng 331 335 193 302 526 380 22 21
CtAngZam 331 335 193 302 526 380 22 21
CtMalTaz 464 121 167 54 432 624 493 464
CtTazMal 464 121 167 54 432 624 493 464
CtMozZam 331 422 8 29 158 446 127 292
CtZamMoz 331 422 8 29 158 446 127 292
CtZimBot 56 1 149 11 243 312 365 56
CtBotZim 56 1 149 11 243 312 365 56
CtZamNam 331 422 117 84 47 28 153 199
CtNamZam 331 422 117 84 47 28 153 199
CtMalWm 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
CtMozWm 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
CtZamWm 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
CtZimWm 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
CtTazWm 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
CtWmMal 166 352 398 5 560 74 419 272
CtWmMoz 166 0 316 0 0 138 0 0
CtWmZam 331 403 308 0 32 584 10 220
CtWmZim 166 188 242 68 38 177 116 119
CtWmTaz 166 231 565 59 128 0 0 0
CtWmAng 0 68 115 226 558 205 0 199
stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable
415 18 1 841
415 18 1 841
542 1679 1 130
542 1679 1 130
327 1366 1 28
327 1366 1 28
1023 1821 1 498
1023 1821 1 498
554 1227 1 870
554 1227 1 870
215 313 1 101
215 313 1 101
3714 1842 1 110
3714 1842 1 110
818 1004 1 74
818 1004 1 74
2973 1348 0 999
3388 1366 0 999
3173 1679 0 999
3715 0 0 999
3527 2575 0 999
0 0 0 639
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 396
Calculation sheet for Crop transport cost (aTransCost)
Crop transport costs among crop markets

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

Source: FAOstats (http://www.fao.org/faostat)

World market price are Import value/Import quantity for Southern Africa market
Transport costs from and to WM = Observed Import Price - World market price (minimum 0)
For stimulants transport cost to WM = World market price - Observed export price (minimum 0)
Transport costs among countries A and B = ABS(Obs Import price A - Obs Imp price B)

REM: Transport cost data is very scarce therefore we do the assumptions as specified above
As no country specific data for cassava, same transport costs as roots are assumed
999: no export to world market (as observed)

comment:
units: ncrop
ncmarket cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice roots
CtMalMoz 0 371 83 52 686 64 536 344
CtMozMal 0 371 83 52 686 64 536 344
CtZamZim 165 215 65 144 6 407 106 101
CtZimZam 331 215 65 144 6 407 106 101
CtZimMoz 0 207 74 115 164 39 233 191
CtMozZim 0 207 74 115 164 39 233 191
CtZamAng 331 335 193 302 526 380 22 21
CtAngZam 331 335 193 302 526 380 22 21
CtMalTaz 0 121 167 54 432 624 493 464
CtTazMal 0 121 167 54 432 624 493 464
CtMozZam 165 422 8 29 158 446 127 292
CtZamMoz 331 422 8 29 158 446 127 292
CtZimBot 0 1 149 11 243 312 365 56
CtBotZim 0 1 149 11 243 312 365 56
CtZamNam 165 422 117 84 47 28 153 199
CtNamZam 331 422 117 84 47 28 153 199
CtMalWm 0 352 398 5 560 74 419 272
CtMozWm 0 0 316 0 0 138 0 0
CtZamWm 331 403 308 0 32 584 10 220
CtZimWm 0 188 242 68 38 177 116 119
CtTazWm 0 231 565 59 128 0 0 0
CtWmMal 166 352 398 5 560 74 419 272
CtWmMoz 166 0 316 0 0 138 0 0
CtWmZam 331 403 308 0 32 584 10 220
CtWmZim 166 188 242 68 38 177 116 119
CtWmTaz 166 231 565 59 128 0 0 0
CtWmAng 0 68 115 226 558 205 0 199

CmWorldMarket 395 268 435 239 423 836 528 391

CmAngola 395 336 550 465 981 1041 516 590

CmBotswana 561 455 826 296 218 701 1009 454
CmMalawi 561 620 833 244 983 910 947 663
CmMozambique 561 249 751 192 297 974 411 319
CmNamibia 561 249 626 247 502 1448 691 412
CmTanzania 561 499 1000 298 551 286 454 199
CmZambia 726 671 743 163 455 1420 538 611
CmZimbabwe 561 456 677 307 461 1013 644 510

Potato
CmAngola
CmBotswana 765
CmMalawi 768
CmMozambique 740
CmNamibia 474
CmTanzania 167
CmZambia 540
CmZimbabwe 277
nsCost)

stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable

415 18 1 841
415 18 1 841
542 1679 1 130
542 1679 1 130
327 1366 1 28
327 1366 1 28
1023 1821 1 498
1023 1821 1 498
554 1227 1 870
554 1227 1 870
215 313 1 101
215 313 1 101
3714 1842 1 110
3714 1842 1 110
818 1004 1 74
818 1004 1 74
2973 1348 0 639
3388 1366 0 0
3173 1679 0 0
3715 0 0 0
3527 2575 0 0
0 0 0 639
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 396

5909 5545 50 817

1712 2045 99 1213

5909 3703 99 696
2936 4197 99 1456
 2521 4179 99 615
3554 2862 99 790
2382 2970 99 585
2736 3866 99 716
2194 5545 99 586

Stim Tobacco Vegetables

1712 2045
5909 3703 1848
2936 4197 0
2521 4179 102
3554 2862 296
2382 2970 1091
2736 3866 826
2194 5545 474
Crop demand - DRAFT SHEET
Crop demand characteristics

SOURCES
aCropDem: http://www.fao.org/faostat, Food Balance Sheet, Domestic Supply quantity
aCropMv: fao but random estimate, see : http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/domestic
REM2: some countries seems to have "crop producer price" (price at which gov buys to farmer), higher than (international)
INTERESTING SOURCE:
https://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?datasetcode=HIGH_AGLINK_2016&lang=en

Thoughts
1 represent demand for different crops
2 for eksport (cash) crops limit cultivated area to existing
3 for the others let demand split the production
4 new projects may allow more area for cashcroprs
5 main impact: price of crops, and crops that can be grown
6 What kind of new cash crops can be grown because of infrastructure ?

OECD-FAO data https://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?datasetcode=HIGH_AGLINK_2016&lang=en

yields (t/ha) roots-2015 2025 wheat 2025
Mozambique 3.75 3.94 1.11 1.23
Tanzania 1.21 1.56 1.1 1.39
Zambia 1.35 1.6 9.63 6.7 to 7.42
maize-2015 2025 rice-2015 2025
Mozambique 1.09 1.26 0.77 0.95
Tanzania 1.55 1.9 1.56 1.86
Zambia 2.75 3.52 0.68 0.99
sugarcane-2015 2025 othergrain- 2025
Mozambique 78 90
Tanzania 52 61

Zambia 103 108

ratio roots wheat maize rice sugarcane

Mozambique 1.05 1.11 1.16 1.23 1.15

Tanzania 1.29 1.26 1.23 1.19 1.17
Zambia 1.19 1.11 1.28 1.46 1.05
growth rate (%/roots wheat maize rice sugarcane
Mozambique 1.005 1.010 1.015 1.021 1.014
Tanzania 1.026 1.024 1.021 1.018 1.016
Zambia 1.017 1.010 1.025 1.038 1.005
growth rate (%) wheat maize rice other grain
sub sahara p 78 1.015 1.022 1.016
sub sahara website 1.018 1.022 1.017 1.023

area (1000ha) roots-2015 2025

Mozambique 924 1218
Tanzania 2345 2465
Zambia 278 361
maize-2015 2025
Mozambique 1650 1988
Tanzania 3100 3598
Zambia 976 1217
 cotton-2015 2025
Mozambique 140 127
Tanzania 435 428

Zambia 306 298

othergrain-201 2025
Mozambique 460 599
Tanzania 1186 1375
Zambia 47 52
rice-2015 2025
Mozambique 311 382
Tanzania 1000 1218
Zambia 25 37
oilseeds-2015 2025
Mozambique 303 307
Tanzania 199 203

Zambia 148 150

Total-2015 2025
Mozambique 3788 4621
Tanzania 8265 9287
Zambia 1780 2115
growth rate (%/year)
Mozambique 1.020
Tanzania 1.012
Zambia 1.017

IFPRI data https://harvestchoice.org/products/data

(in harvested area) corrected to match exactly 5.2 Mio ha

ncatch Rainfed(ha) Irrigated (ha) nfzone Rainfed(ha) Rainfed (net ha)

UpperZambezi 55600 1869 FzUpperZamb 55600 45107
Kholombidzo 209839 64 FzMupata 91634 74341
Mupata 91634 2470 FzBaroste 127793 103676
Baroste 127793 2798 FzLungue 38281 31057
MphandaNkuwa 152245 22 FzKabompo 15914 12911
Lungue 38281 0 FzHarare 98749 80113
LakeMalawiDown 769801 26605 FzLuangwa 533225 432595
KafueGorgeUp 5508 3333 FzLuanginga 23046 18697
BatokaGorge 18355 64 FzDelta 87817 71244
Kabompo 15914 0 FzKafueUp 132255 107296
KafueGorgeLow 4965 127 FzKafueFlat 154582 125409
Cuando 131940 4 FzLakeMalaw 1826444 1481759
Harare 98749 21388 FzLakeMalawi 270191 219201
Songwe 79465 377 FzCuando 127356 103321
LakeMalawi 1190616 15420 FzKariba 849734 689373
Kariba 830952 29458 FzKaribaBOT 4587 3721
Rumakali 56548 1579 FzLowerShire 979640 794763
KafueFlat 144013 22914 FzTeteZIM 319457 259169
Luangwa 533225 34871 FzTete 673313 546246
Luanginga 23046 0
CahoraBassa 175897 1062
ZambeziDelta 87817 4826
Tete 666554 24433
KafueUp 132255 4500
RukuruRumphi 760270 4981

nfzone Rainfed Tobacc nfzone Rainfed Tobacco(ha) Million ha

FzUpperZambezi 262 RFDelta 797 0.0 0.000797
FzMupata 5049 RFTete 14608 0.0 0.014608
FzBaroste 4040 RFLakeMalawiMLW 113008 0.1 0.113008
FzLungue 126 RFLakeMalawiTAZ 1359 0.0 0.001359
FzKabompo 33 RFMupata 5049 0.0 0.005049
FzHarare 854 RFLuangwa 8086 0.0 0.008086
FzLuangwa 8086 RFKariba 13610 0.0 0.01361
FzLuanginga 124 RFKafueFlat 5578 0.0 0.005578
FzDelta 797 RFCuando 824 0.0 0.000824
FzKafueUp 1371 RFBaroste 4040 0.0 0.00404
FzKafueFlat 5578 RFLuanginga 124 0.0 0.000124
FzLakeMalawiMLW 113008 RFLungue 126 0.0 0.000126
FzLakeMalawiTAZ 1359 RFUpperZambezi 262 0.0 0.000262
FzCuando 824 RFKabompo 33 0.0 3.3E-05
FzKariba 13610 RFKaribaBOT 0 0.0 0
FzMazowe 0 RFLowerShire 14916 0.0 0.014916
FzLowerShire 14916 RFKafueUp 1371 0.0 0.001371
FzMazowe 7371 RFHarare 854 0.0 0.000854
FzTete 14608 RFMazowe 7371 0.0 0.007371
/#/dataset/domestic
mer), higher than (international) market price

NATIONAL DEMAND -DOWNSFAOstats DATA 2011-2016

cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses
Angola 3% 0.41 0.03 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.01
Botswana 1% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Malawi 78% 3.28 0.19 0.84 2.44 0.25 0.32
Mozambiqu 13% 1.03 0.10 0.08 0.24 0.04 0.05
Namibia 6% 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
Tanzania 3% 0.17 0.06 0.15 0.14 0.03 0.04
Zambia 69% 0.78 0.16 0.10 1.31 0.17 0.02
Zimbabwe 65% 0.14 0.38 0.12 1.02 0.20 0.04

NATIONAL DEMAND FAOstats DATA 2011-2016

cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses
Angola 3% 12.154 0.847 2.992 1.168 0.226 0.222
Botswana 1% 0 0.146 0.1 0.088 0.022 0.009
Malawi 78% 4.18 0.241 1.1 3.104 0.322 0.412
Mozambiqu 13% 7.951 0.802 0.6 1.862 0.273 0.398
Namibia 6% 0 0.135 0.1 0.13 0.015 0.019
Tanzania 3% 5.148 1.812 4.7 4.239 1 1.181
Zambia 69% 1.119 0.228 0.1 1.89 0.25 0.029
Zimbabwe 65% 0.218 0.582 0.2 1.566 0.302 0.069

FUTURE DEMANDS (IFPRI IMPACT DATABASE) https://www.ifpri.org/publication/im

Fruits & Vegetables
Total Demand (mio t) Total Demand Index
2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
Angola 1.6 3.3 4.5 1.0 2.0 2.8
Botswana 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.9
othergrain Malawi 1.6 3.7 7.9 1.0 2.3 4.9
1.011 Mozambiqu 0.7 1.4 2.4 1.0 2.1 3.7
1.018 Namibia 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.3
1.011 Tanzania 6.4 12.6 21.6 1.0 2.0 3.4
Zambia 0.5 1.3 2.7 1.0 2.4 4.9
Zimbabwe 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.4

Oilseeds
Total Demand (mio t) Total Demand Index
2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
Angola 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4
Botswana 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.5
Malawi 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.8
Mozambiqu 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.5
Namibia 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 1.5
Tanzania 1.2 1.9 2.7 1.0 1.6 2.2
 Zambia 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.5
Zimbabwe 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2

Cereals
Total Demand Total Demand Index
2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
Angola 2.4 4.4 5.9 1.0 1.8 2.5
Botswana 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5
Malawi 2.9 4.7 6.9 1.0 1.6 2.4
Mozambiqu 2.7 4.1 5.1 1.0 1.5 1.9
Namibia 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8
Tanzania 7.2 12.0 17.0 1.0 1.7 2.4
Zambia 2.0 3.6 5.6 1.0 1.8 2.8
Zimbabwe 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.0 1.1 1.2

Pulses
Total Demand Total Demand Index
2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
Angola 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.4
Botswana 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.7
Malawi 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.8 3.1
Mozambiqu 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.7
Namibia 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 1.9
Tanzania 1.1 2.1 3.3 1.0 1.8 2.9
Zambia 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.4
Zimbabwe 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.2 1.5
ted to match exactly 5.2 Mio ha

Irrigated (ha) Roots & Tubers

1869 Total Demand Total Demand Index
2470 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
2798 Angola 9.6 10.7 12.3 1.0 1.1 1.3
0 Botswana 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.6
0 Malawi 5.1 7.6 10.8 1.0 1.5 2.1
21388 Mozambiqu 8.6 12.8 15.3 1.0 1.5 1.8
34871 Namibia 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4
0 Tanzania 8.5 13.8 19.3 1.0 1.6 2.3
4826 Zambia 1.3 2.2 3.2 1.0 1.7 2.4
4500 Zimbabwe 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.2
26374
18961 RnMozambique
5352
4
29522 RnZimbabwe
0
26669
24007
1510
 other ncmarket cassava
CmAngola 314
CmMalawi 326
CmMozamb 163
CmTanzani 326
CmZambia 727
CmZimbab 383
WinWheat WinWheat
rice roots stimulants sugarcane vegetable CmAngola 586
0.01 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.05 CmMalawi 1426
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CmMozamb 426
0.06 2.91 0.01 2.23 0.27 CmTanzani 1442
0.07 0.14 0.00 0.42 0.06 CmZambia 6679
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CmZimbab 2559
0.03 0.10 0.00 0.11 0.07 Average 2186
0.03 0.14 0.00 2.42 0.27
0.07 0.04 0.01 2.23 0.14

id nculture
rice roots stimulants sugarcane vegetable nYIELD nftype WinWheat
0.302 1.672 0.029 0.854 1.466 base IrrAngola 1.3
0.021 0.022 0.004 0.071 0.073 IrrMalawi 1.9
0.08 3.711 0.008 2.839 0.35 IrrMozambi 1.7
0.566 1.091 0.025 3.263 0.477 IrrTanzania 1.5
0.009 0.036 0.006 0.038 0.068 IrrZambia 9.3
1.069 3.231 0.015 3.257 2.079 IrrZimbab 3.2
0.041 0.205 0.006 3.491 0.384 RnAngola 0.9
0.101 0.061 0.013 3.435 0.214 RnMalawi 1.4
RnMozambi 1.2
ww.ifpri.org/publication/impact-projections-demand-agricultural-products-extended-country-level-results-2017-gfpr
RnTanzania 1.1

RnZambia 6.7
RELATIVE CHANGES RnZimbabw 2.3
2030 Fruits & OilseedsCereals Pulses Roots & Tubers
Angola 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.1
Botswana 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4
Malawi 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.5
Mozambique 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.5
Namibia 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3
Tanzania 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6
Zambia 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.7
Zimbabwe 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

2050 Fruits & OilseedsCereals Pulses Roots & Tubers

Angola 2.8 1.4 2.5 2.4 1.3
Botswana 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6
Malawi 4.9 2.8 2.4 3.1 2.1
Mozambique 3.7 1.5 1.9 2.7 1.8
Namibia 2.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.4
Tanzania 3.4 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.3
Zambia 4.9 2.5 2.8 3.4 2.4
Zimbabwe 2.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2
 ncmarket cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice roots stimulants
CmAngola 314 337 328 466 982 1300 500 423 1500
CmMalawi 326 621 457 245 984 1128 988 522 1500
CmMozambiq 163 250 390 193 298 1156 179 484 1500
CmTanzania 326 500 212 299 552 1156 796 552 1500
CmZambia 727 672 790 164 456 1156 1515 780 1500
CmZimbabw 383 457 435 308 462 1039 796 552 1500
WinWheat SumMaize VegetablesSugarcane SumRice WinRice Fruits Sorghum Beans
CmAngola 438.53136 598.549 1104.943 2727.907 813.73 11773.63 113.232 722.774
CmMalawi 1188.1841 685.6717 6984.244 7521.396 2519.756 15943.06 704.4376 912.3264

CmMozambiq 419.715 273.9674 20861.99 5051.451 167.4581 4127.378 172.885 687.691

CmTanzania 758.45 600.996 6995.394 3215.283 2657.32 1980.479 735.45 1537.73
CmZambia 6264.6797 617.0992 10975.37 7242.857 3178.409 4438.741 747.8822 891.5229
CmZimbabw 1469.1636 320.6834 5487.916 5432.159 2527.876 3960.398 180.6978 588.8429
Average 1756.454 516.1611 8734.975 5198.509 1977.425 7037.28 442.4308 890.1479

Culture $/ha
Potato 10539.917
Sugarcane 9357.3159
Vegetables 8734.9751
Fruits 7037.2799
Cassava 4692.3425

Stimulants 3149.876
SumRice 1977.4249
WinWheat 1756.454
Beans 890.14787
Soybeans 862.57861
Groundnut 627.17057
SumMaize 516.16112
Sorghum 442.43077

Obs yield (%WinWheat SumMaizeVegetablesSugarcane SumRice WinRice Fruits Sorghum Beans

RnAngola 1 0.803996 1 1 0.461113 1 1 0.857474 0.2566
RnMalawi 1 0.861428 1 1 0.849923 1 1 0.987888 0.3161
RnMozambique 1 0.792068 1 1 0.688478 1 1 0.960989 0.27665
RnTanzania 1 0.816136 1 1 0.849923 1 1 0.982862 0.53435
RnZambia 1 0.851532 1 1 0.590199 1 1 0.857345 0
RnZimbabwe 1 0.771657 1 1 0.47836 1 1 0.61915 0.4139
Average 1 0.81614 1 1 0.653 1 1 0.87762 0.2996
cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice roots stimulants sugarcane vegetable
337 328 466 982 1300 500 423 3500 50 281
621 457 245 984 1128 988 522 3500 50 562
250 390 193 298 1156 179 484 3500 50 754
500 212 299 552 1156 796 552 3500 50 407
672 790 164 456 1156 1515 780 3500 50 801
457 435 308 462 1039 796 552 3500 50 544
SumMaize Vegetables Sugarcane SumRice WinRice Fruits Sorghum Beans Soybeans Stimulants
524 2186 1962 1000 9626 138 667 842 1190
650 1846 5500 2100 12972 628 713 1067 7665
289 4675 3977 203 3461 166 639 457 4725
938 2774 5905 2178 1679 646 1235 718 7455
497 6308 5357 2723 3358 658 0 1092 4095
399 3917 5652 1920 2984 283 860 1053 6965
550 3617 4726 1688 5680 420 686 871 5349

6to9 1.5-2
SumMaize Vegetables Sugarcane SumRice WinRice Fruits Sorghum Beans Soybeans Stimulants
1.3 3.9 54.6 1.6 1.6 35.9 0.3 0.6 0.7 3.1
2.8 12.4 150.4 2.6 2.6 34.9 1.1 0.8 1.4 3.6
1.4 27.7 101.0 0.9 0.9 10.6 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.8
2.0 17.2 64.3 3.3 3.3 9.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 3.4
3.8 13.7 144.9 2.1 2.1 5.6 1.1 0.8 2.5 2.0
1.0 10.1 108.6 3.2 3.2 9.1 0.4 0.6 1.8 4.9
0.9 2.8 39.0 1.2 1.2 25.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 2.2
2.0 8.9 107.4 1.8 1.8 24.9 0.8 0.6 1.0 2.6
1.0 19.8 72.2 0.7 0.7 7.6 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.3
1.4 12.3 45.9 2.4 2.4 6.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 2.4

2.7 9.8 103.5 1.5 1.5 4.0 0.8 0.6 1.8 1.4
0.7 7.2 77.6 2.3 2.3 6.5 0.3 0.4 1.3 3.5

oilseeds trcost Soybeans $/ha

CmAngola 982 0.7
CmMalawi 984 560 1.4 219
CmMozambi 298 0 1.5 298
CmTanzani 552 128 1.4 376
CmZambia 456 32 2.5 377
CmZimbab 462 38 1.8 395
sugarcane vegetable
90 281
90 562
90 754
90 407
90 801
90 544
Soybeans Stimulants Cassava WinMaize Groundnut Potato
673.927 3149.876 5281.04 793.4953 4115.7308
1345.089 3639.84 10013.42 1318.265 12330.225

456.6147 1789.94 1877.6 145.2452 9707.075

758.9779 3412.32 2581.079 800.3006 6387.7211
1127.688 1973.02 5921.648 473.0635 17699.448
813.1754 4934.26 2479.266 232.654 12999.302
862.5786 3149.876 4692.343 627.1706 10539.917

Soybeans Stimulants Cassava WinMaize Groundnut Potato

0.542549 1 0.561366 1 0.31908 0.7978755
0.971225 1 0.366477 1 0.42288 0.8205221
0.809683 1 0.437224 1 0.23204 0.8128011
1 1 1 1 0.60404 0.697
0.750872 1 0.410536 1 0.53292 0.5088084
0.622044 1 0.198562 1 0.32932 0.5493264
0.782729 1 0.495694 1 0.40671 0.697722
Cassava WinMaize Groundnut Potato
5281 783 3698
10013 1040 9157
1878 173 8228
2581 834 5061
5922 608 14612
2479 380 9492
4692 636 8375

15-35
Cassava WinMaize Groundnut Potato
16.8 1.3 0.8 9.7
30.7 2.8 1.3 23.6
11.5 1.4 0.5 20.1
7.9 2.0 1.4 11.6
8.1 3.8 1.0 22.7
6.5 1.0 0.5 23.5
12.0 0.9 0.6 6.9
21.9 2.0 1.0 16.9
8.2 1.0 0.3 14.3
5.7 1.4 1.0 8.3

5.8 2.7 0.7 16.2

4.6 0.7 0.4 16.8
Crop national production (t)
Crop demand characteristics

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

FAO stats, Crop prod per country 2010-2016

REM: Only used for validation of the model

Mt/year ncrop
ncountry cassava cereals fruits maize oilseeds pulses rice
Angola 11.513 0.122 3.570 1.343 0.212 0.304 0.036
Botswana 0.000 0.031 0.000 0.014 0.005 0.000 0.099
Malawi 4.695 0.220 0.408 3.357 0.452 0.600 0.113
Mozambique 8.258 0.431 0.552 1.695 0.245 0.463 0.178
Namibia 0.000 0.063 0.000 0.059 0.000 0.020 0.000
Tanzania 5.124 3.767 3.477 5.436 2.731 1.804 2.497
Zambia 1.056 0.316 0.001 2.863 0.363 0.030 0.042
Zimbabwe 0.229 0.196 0.101 0.958 0.162 0.196 0.001
World 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SouthAfrica 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
roots stimulants tobacco sugarcane vegetable
2.091 0.013 0.003 0.525 0.346
0.034 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.041
2.730 0.053 0.126 2.769 0.216
1.073 0.029 0.077 3.163 0.204
0.049 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.020
4.859 0.088 0.096 2.882 1.727
0.209 0.007 0.108 3.905 0.356
0.061 0.025 0.150 3.475 0.178
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Country stats (t)
Crop demand characteristics

SOURCES EXTRA CALCULATIONS/DATA

FAO stats, Crop prod per country 2010-2016

REM: Only used for validation of the model

NOT ALREDAY
comment: DOWNSCALE DOWNSC
D ALED
units: M$/year Mm³/year
ncountry vProdValue vAgrWaterCons
Angola 6179 75
Botswana 21 0
Malawi 5730 494
Mozambique 3213 134
Namibia 202 2
Tanzania 4609 154
Zambia 1558 879
Zimbabwe 880 1496
World 0 0
SouthAfrica 0 0