Global and U.S.

electric vehicle trends

….

….
Overview

§ Global electric vehicle (EV) trends

§ Sales, EV production volume growth, EV cost parity timing
§ Top global EV markets
§ Automaker announcements
§ EV industrial competitiveness by country
§ Canada EV sales - top
§ U.S. trends
§ Policy developments
§ National and leading EV markets
§ Zero-emission heavy-duty commercial freight vehicles
§ More complex technology, policy space

2
Global electric vehicle growth

§ Annual global EV sales surpassed 2 million/year in 2018 (5 million cumulative)

§ Mostly the sales are in China, Europe, and the U.S.
§ These markets have policy, incentives, charging infrastructure, local action
Annual electric vehicle sales

2,000,000
Rest of world
Japan
China
1,500,000
Sweden
Netherlands
France
1,000,000
United Kingdom
Germany
500,000 Norway
Canada
United States
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: www.EV-volumes.com
 Global electric vehicle growth

§ Annual global EV production surpassed 2 million/year in 2018

§ There are now 10 automaker groups selling over 80,000 EVs per year
§ Battery production: 5 companies supplying batteries over 200,000 EVs per year

Electric vehicle sales by automaker Electric vehicle sales by battery supplier

2,000,000 2,000,000

EV sales by battery supplier

Other companies
Electric vehicles sales

Other companies
General Motors Farasis Energy
1,500,000 Hyundai-Kia 1,500,000
Hefei Guoxuan
Volkswagen
GS Yuasa
SAIC
AESC
Geely-Volvo
1,000,000 1,000,000 SATBS
BMW
Samsung SDI
Renault-Nissan
BYD
BAIC
LG Chem
500,000 BYD 500,000
CATL
Tesla
Panasonic

0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4
Sources: EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ and
ICCT https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-electric-vehicle-industry
 Volume and innovation drive EV costs down

§ Battery cost reductions enable electric vehicle cost parity

§ Parity points shown below for cars: 2024-2029 for 150-300-mile electric range
§ Parity points for crossovers and SUVs tend to be several years later
Conventional BEV150 BEV200 BEV250 BEV300

$40,000
Vehicle price

Conventional
$30,000
BEV (300 mile)
BEV (250 mile)
BEV (200 mile)
BEV (150 mile)
$20,000
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

5
Based on ICCT, 2019. Update on electric vehicle costs in the United States through 2030.
https://www.theicct.org/publications/update-US-2030-electric-vehicle-cost
Top EV markets have a complete policy package

§ 44% of world’s EVs are in just 25 markets in China, Europe, Japan, US

§ Each market benefits from regulations, incentives, infrastructure, model availability
§ These areas are striving to overcome all the prevailing electric vehicle barriers

Bergen Oslo

London Stockholm
Seattle Amsterdam
Paris Beijing
San Francisco
San Jose Tianjin Qingdao
Los Angeles New York Zhengzhou Tokyo
San Diego Chongqing Kyoto
Wuhan Shanghai
Changsha Hangzhou
Guangzhou Shenzhen

6
Based on total electric vehicles sales through 2017
See Hall, Cui, & Lutsey, 2018. http://www.theicct.org/publications/EV-capitals-of-the-world-2018
Automakers increasingly share all-electric vision

§ Automaker announcements by 2025:

§ Hundreds of new EV models, over $200b in investments, and 15m EVs/year
§ Vehicle deployment would lead to higher volume than required by regulations

15,000,000 Dongfeng
BMW
Mercedes
Electric vehicle sales

Tesla
General Motors
Geely

10,000,000 U.S. BAIC

Chonging
Changan
Europe
Volkwagen

5,000,000
Toyota
China
Nissan
Renault
Mitsubishi
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Automaker
announcements
by 2025
Government regulations
(adopted and strongest proposals under consideration)

7
Based on company announcements for plug-in vehicles
Report: https://www.theicct.org/publications/modernizing-regulations-electrification
 Industrial Canada EV sales in global
context, top EV models, vehicle
competitiveness sales and production statistics

8
 Annual EV growth: Worldwide and in Canada

§ Canada is the 8th largest EV market, with over 40,000 sales in 2018
§ Annual EV sales growth rate for Canada over 2014-2018 has increased each year

50,000
Rest of world +124%
2,000,000
Sweden Canada
Electric vehicle sales

Electric vehicle sales

South Korea
40,000
Canada
1,500,000 France
Japan
United Kingdom 30,000
Germany
1,000,000 Norway +76%
United States 20,000
China
+56%
500,000 +33%
10,000

0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: www.EV-volumes.com
Canada and U.S. electric vehicle sales

§ Canada’s EV market largely depends on imports

§ 97% of Canada EV sales were imports (53% from U.S.)
§ 70% of U.S. EV sales were made in the U.S.
§ Fifteen top-selling EV models in Canada and U.S. (90% of EV sales)

Canada sales United States sales

Rank Model Sales Assembly Rank Model Sales Assembly
1 Tesla Model 3 6,300 U.S. 1 Tesla Model 3 139,700 U.S.
2 Nissan Leaf 5,700 U.S. 2 Toyota Prius Prime* 27,600 Japan
3 Mitsubishi Outlander* 5,300 Japan 3 Tesla Model X 24,700 U.S.
4 Chevrolet Volt* 4,300 U.S. 4 Tesla Model S 24,500 U.S.
5 Toyota Prius Prime* 3,500 Japan 5 Chevrolet Volt* 18,300 U.S.
6 Chevrolet Bolt 2,500 U.S. 6 Honda Clarity PHEV* 18,200 Japan
7 Ford Fusion Energi* 1,900 Mexico 7 Chevrolet Bolt 18,000 U.S.
8 Tesla Model X 1,600 U.S. 8 Nissan Leaf 14,700 U.S.
9 Chrysler Pacifica* 1,400 Canada 9 Ford Fusion Energi* 8,100 Mexico
10 Hyundai Ioniq PHEV* 1,400 S. Korea 10 Chrysler Pacifica* 7,100 Canada
11 Volkswagen e-Golf 1,200 Germany 11 BMW i3* 6,100 Germany
12 Tesla Model S 1,100 U.S. 12 BMW X5* 4,400 U.S.
13 Kia Soul 1,100 S. Korea 13 BMW 530e* 4,300 Germany
14 Honda Clarity PHEV* 800 Japan 14 Mitsubishi Outlander* 4,200 Japan
15 Hyundai Ioniq BEV 500 S. Korea 15 Kia Niro* 3,400 S. Korea

10
* denotes plug-in hybrid; Data are calendar year 2018 sales
Sources: ICCT; EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/
Canada’s role in the long-term EV transition is unclear

§ Canada is a global auto manufacturing leader and a top auto market

§ 2 million vehicles produced, $50+ billion in annual auto and supplier exports in 2018
§ Canada’s limited EV production puts its auto industry at risk in a global EV transition
Industry metrics: 2018 production and exports Market metrics
Rank Vehicle Vehicle Automotive parts Electric vehicle
Vehicle sales Electric vehicle sales
production export value export value production
1 China (25.5 m) Germany ($167 b) Germany ($67 b) China (1,078,000) China (24.7 m) China (1,104,000)
2 U.S. (11 m) Japan ($108 b) U.S. ($46 b) U.S. (335,000) U.S. (17.3 m) U.S. (358,000)
3 Japan (9.2 m) Mexico ($74 b) Japan ($36 b) Germany (205,000) Japan (4.4 m) Norway (73,000)
4 Germany (5.1 m) U.S. ($67 b) China ($35 b) Japan (181,000) Germany (3.4 m) Germany (66,000)
5 India (4.7 m) Canada ($45 b) Mexico ($30 b) S. Korea (84,000) India (3.4 m) U.K. (60,000)
6 S. Korea (4 m) U.K. ($44 b) S. Korea ($20 b) France (59,000) U.K. (2.4 m) Japan (53,000)
7 Mexico (3.9 m) Spain ($42 b) France ($16 b) U.K. (50,000) France (2.2 m) France (46,000)
8 Spain (2.8 m) S. Korea ($40 b) Czech Rep. ($15 b) Sweden (28,000) Brazil (2.1 m) Canada (43,000)
9 Brazil (2.7 m) Belgium ($38 b) Italy ($15 b) Nether. (13,000) Canada (2 m) S. Korea (32,000)
10 France (2.3 m) France ($34 b) Poland ($14 b) Slovakia (13,000) Russia (1.8 m) Sweden (29,000)
11 Thailand (2.2 m) Italy ($23 b) Spain ($12 b) Mexico (12,000) S. Korea (1.6 m) Nether. (27,000)
12 Canada (2 m) Slovakia ($22 b) Canada ($11 b) Canada (9,000) Spain (1.3 m) Belgium (13,000)
13 Russia (1.7 m) Thailand ($19 b) Thailand ($9 b) Spain (8,000) Mexico (1.2 m) Spain (12,000)
14 U.K. (1.6 m) Turkey ($18 b) Romania ($8 b) Austria (7,000) Australia (0.9 m) Switzerland (9,000)
15 Iran (1.5 m) Sweden ($14 b) U.K. ($7 b) India (1,000) Indonesia (0.9 m) Austria (9,000)
Global 91.6 million $1,730 billion $412 billion 2,090,000 91.6 million 2,090,000
Canada share 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 0.4% 2.2% 2.0%

Vehicles include passenger cars and light trucks 11

Sources: ICCT; EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/; International Trade
Center; International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
Canada’s EV production lags the global trend

§ Canada’s limited EV production puts its auto industry at risk in a global EV transition
§ Compared to 2.3% global EV share, Canada’s lags with 0.4% of auto production being electric
§ Canada’s EV production is from ~9,000 Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrids produced in 2018
§ Other major auto producing countries (S. Korea, UK, France) are keeping pace
§ Other non-major auto producing countries (Netherlands, Sweden) are becoming leaders
Electric vehicle production

80 South Korea
2.1%
(thousand per year)

France
2.6%
60 United Kingdom
3.2%
es
vehicl
40 Sweden
12% elec
tric
%
d: 2.3
tren
bal
20 Neth. Glo
Slovakia Canada Spain Mexico
8.5% 1.2% 0.3%
0.4% 0.3%
Austria
0 1.0% Italy Czech Turkey Thailand Brazil
0 1 2 3 4
Light-duty vehicle production (million per year)

Sources: EV-Volumes http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/; International Organization of Motor 12

Vehicle Manufacturers; ICCT https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-electric-vehicle-industry ;
Larger manufacturing companies not shown: China, U.S., Germany, Japan
 Overall federal/state policy
Trends in the U.S. developments, top EV markets,
and underlying factors

13
U.S. vehicle policy developments

§ Federal government proposes revoking post-2020 CO2 standards and

state authority on emission standards
§ 60% of the U.S. market is in states or cities that oppose federal rollback

14
Source: Slowik (2019): https://www.theicct.org/publications/state-city-clean-car-20190419
U.S. electric vehicle sales: National

§ Cumulative U.S. electric vehicle sales have passed 1 million

Electric vehicle sales Share of new vehicles

400,000 2.0%
Electric vehicle sales

Electric share of new vehicles

300,000 1.5%

200,000 1.0%

100,000 0.5%

0 0.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

15
Source: www.EV-volumes.com
U.S. electric vehicle sales: Local markets

§ Most EV sales are in markets with some combination of the following:

ZEV regulation, incentives, extensive charging, city/utility promotions
§ Nearly two-thirds of EV sales are in ZEV regulation states (CA, OR, Northeast)

Seattle

Portland

Boston

Minneapolis Hartford
Buffalo Providence

Milwaukee Detroit New York

Cleveland Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Baltimore
Salt Lake City Columbus Washington
Sacramento Indianapolis
San Francisco
Denver Cincinnati Richmond
San Jose St. Louis Louisville Virginia Beach
Kansas City

Raleigh
Las Vegas
Nashville Charlotte

Los Angeles Riverside

Oklahoma City Memphis
Atlanta
San Diego
Phoenix Birmingham

Dallas
Jacksonville

Austin New Orleans Orlando

Houston Tampa
San Antonio
Miami

Electric vehicle share

0% - 0.5% 0.5% - 1% 1% - 1.5% 1.5% - 2% 2% - 3% 3% - 4% 4% - 5% 5% - 10% > 10%

16
Source: Slowik (2019) updates from Slowik and Lutsey (2018):
https://www.theicct.org/publications/continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018
 Phoenix Boston
Denver
Lake City Denver
Austin
Hartford Austin
Phoenix
Raleigh Phoenix
Salt Lake City
Salt Lake City
Hartford
New York
Atlanta U.S. electric vehicle sales: Underlying factors
Hartford
Raleigh
Raleigh
Las Vegas New York
New York
Atlanta
Baltimore
LasAtlanta
Vegas
n neapolis
Las Vegas
Baltimore
Chicago
Baltimore
Min neapolis
hiladelphia
Richmond §
Min neapolis
Chicago
Chicago
Philadelphia
Most EV sales are in markets with policy, incentives, charging, local action
Mia mi
Philadelphia
Richmond
rovidence Richmond
Mia mi Charging
EV share of EV models Consumer Local policy
ColumbusProvidence
Mia mi infrastructure
NashvilleProvidence new sales Public and workplace available incentives ($) actions
Columbus
Electric vehicle share of new (per
charge million)
points per million Models available
Consumer incentives
ansas City Columbus
Nashville vehicles population (at least 20 sales) Promotion actions
dianapolisKansas City0%
Nashville 10% 20% 0 800 1,600 2,400 0 20 40 0 3,500 7,000 0 20 40
TampaKansas City
Indianapolis
San Jose
SanIndianapolis
cksonville Tampa
Francisco
SanTampa
DallasJacksonville
Diego
Jacksonville
Dallas
Los Angeles
Cincinnati
Dallas
Cincinnati
CharlotteSacramento
Cincinnati
Charlotte
Seattle
Buffalo
Charlotte
Buffalo
Portland
Louisville
Buffalo
Louisville
Riverside
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
WaLouisville
shington
St. Louis
St.Boston
Louis
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
St.Denver
Louis
Houston
Houston
Pittsburgh
Austin
Detroit Detroit
Houston
Phoenix
Orlando Detroit
Salt Lake City
Orlando
an AntonioSanOrlando
Hartford
Antonio
Me mphis Raleigh
SanMe mphis
Antonio
Cleveland Cleveland
Me mphis
New York
Virginia
nia Beach Beach
Cleveland
Atlanta Public Public
Level Level
2 2
Purchaseincentives
Purchase incentives State
rmin gham Birmin
Virginia gham
Las Beach
Vegas Public DC
Level 2 State
Public Public
DC fast fast Purchase
HOV incentives
incentives City
State
City
Oklahoma
Birmin
homa City City
gham
Baltimore HOV incentives
Public DC fast
Workplace Utility
City
New Orleans
Oklahoma
w Orleans City
Min neapolis Workplace HOV incentives
Other incentives
Utility
Workplace Other incentives Utility
New Chicago
Orleans Other incentives
Philadelphia
Richmond
Mia mi
Providence 17
Columbus Source: Slowik (2019) updates from Slowik and Lutsey (2018):
Nashville https://www.theicct.org/publications/continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018
Kansas City
Indianapolis
 New electric and fuel cell
Zero-emission trucks trucks, cost analysis

18
 Zero-emission commercial freight truck developments

§ Very promising developments across major truck classes

Gross vehicle weight class (U.S.)

Freightliner eCascadia Freightliner eCascadia
BYD Day Cab BYD Day Cab Eforce EF18 SZM Eforce EF18 SZM
tor trailer
9 Class 8 tractor trailer
9
5+ tonnes) (15+ tonnes) NikolaT680
Two Tesla SemiNikola Two Tesla Semi Nikola One Nikola On
Kenworth T680 Kenworth
emoss EMS 16 Series emoss EMS 16 Series
Toyota Beta Toyota Beta
Volvo VNR Volvo VNR Thor ET-One Thor ET-One
ght truck
8 Class 8 straight truck
8 Eforce EV26 Eforce EV26
5+ tonnes) (15+ tonnes) Lion Lion8 Lion Lion8
emoss EMS 18 Serie emoss EMS 18 Serie
MAN eTGM Hyundai XCient
MAN eTGM Hyundai XCient
Cummins AEOS Cummins
Volvo AEOS
FL Electric Volvo FL Electric
Class 7 Class 7 BEV in production (2019)BEV in production
7
5 tonnes)
7
(11.8 to 15 tonnes) emoss EMS 12 Series
emoss EMS 12 Series
Mercedes-Benz eActros Mercedes-Benz eActros BEV announced BEV announced
Peterbilt e220 Peterbilt e220 FCEV in production (2019)
FCEV in productio
Class 66 Class
BYD66Class 6 Truck BYD Class 6 Truck
.8 tonnes) (8.8 to 11.8 tonnes) FCEV announced FCEV announced
Thor MDV emoss EMS Thor
10 Series
MDV emoss EMS 10 Series

Class 5
5 Class 5
5 Freightliner eM2 106 Freightliner eM2 106
.8 tonnes) Mitsubishi FUSO eCanter
(7.3 to 8.8 tonnes) Mitsubishi FUSO eCanter
Tevva eTruck Tevva eTruck
Volkswagen e-Delivery Volkswagen e-Delivery
Class 4 Class 4 Dongfeng Special Vehicle Dongfeng Special Vehicle
4
.3 tonnes) 4
(6.3 to 7.3 tonnes)
0 100 200
0 100
300 200
400 300
500 400
600 500
700 600
800 700
900 800
1000 900
Range (miles) Range (miles)

19
Source: Hall (2019) updates from Moultak, Lutsey, Hall (2017)
https://www.theicct.org/publications/transitioning-zero-emission-heavy-duty-freight-vehicles
Zero-emission commercial freight tractor-trailers

§ Very promising, but complex regulation, policy, infrastructure questions remain

Vehicle Fuel Maintenance Infrastructure Lifetime cost per mile

Lifetime total cost of ownership

$1,600,000 $1.60

Lifetime cost per mile

$1,200,000 $1.20

$800,000 $0.80

$400,000 $0.40

$0 $-
2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Diesel Battery electric Hydrogen fuel cell

20
Source: Hall (2019) updates from Moultak, Lutsey, Hall (2017)
https://www.theicct.org/publications/transitioning-zero-emission-heavy-duty-freight-vehicles
Conclusions

§ Electric vehicle growth

§ Growth: 60%+ annual growth rate, 2 million EVs per year and growing
§ Battery innovation and scale enables mainstream market in years ahead
§ Industry commitments showing order of magnitude higher scale is underway

§ Policies for the transition to electric vehicles

§ Top EV markets around the world show us a complete policy package
§ Reducing CO2 emissions at triple the historical rate needed to decarbonize transport
§ As EV cost parity is reached, policies including durable polluter-pay taxation,
regulation, infrastructure support, and consumer campaigns remain critical
§ We could proceed with similar steps for zero-emission trucks in the years ahead

21
More info
ICCT electric vehicle page:
http://theicct.org/electric-vehicles
World electric vehicle capital report:
http://www.theicct.org/publications/EV-capitals-of-the-world-2018
U.S. city electric vehicle report:
https://www.theicct.org/publications/continued-EV-transition-us-cities-2018
Update on electric vehicle costs in the United States through 2030:
https://www.theicct.org/publications/update-US-2030-electric-vehicle-cost

Acknowledgements
Analysis and data collection by Pete Slowik, Dale Hall, Marissa Moultak, Hongyang
Cui, Mikhail Grant, Sandra Wappelhorst, Huan Zhou, Mike Nicholas, Nic Lutsey