The University of Lahore

School of Integrated Social Sciences

Course Outline
Course: National Security and Threat Perceptions
Spring 2021 Semester

Instructor: Muhammad Sharreh Qazi

Email: muhammad.shareh@siss.uol.edu.pk
Lecture Timings: Thursday 3:30 PM to 5:00 PM Friday 5:00 PM to 6:30 PM
Mobile No: 0307-8888559

Course Objectives:
State security and securitization are distinct just as there is a distinction in threats and threat perceptions. State
security is a broader spectrum approach that encompasses traditional, operational, evolutionary and gradual
factors of statecraft. Securitization, in this context, is ability of a state to implement its priorities and preferences
as per its state security model (whichever it wishes to highlight). Threats to a state are any adversarial
circumstances, interactions and instances where a state either opts for a defensive or an offensive posture.
Threats often allow a state to reconsider its securitization blueprint and adjust accordingly. Threat perceptions,
however, are a distinguished set of observational, calculable and hypothetical inferences that a state draws
whilst operating within and beyond its state security scheme. A major factor depends on the exact nomenclature
of national interest, elements of national power, strategic culture, model and synergy of institutional operability
and a composite evaluation of its strategic environment.
Students will be acquainted with the following fundamentals as main principle regulating both national security
and threat perceptions is based on six distinct cores:
1. Determination of National Interest and National Security
2. Actual threats and Perceived Threats
3. Environment for threat evaluation and national security determination
4. Traditional Practices in national security and threat perceptions
5. Center of Gravity in National Security and Threat Perceptions
6. Plan of Action

Reading material: (All material would be provided to students in electronic form on the first lecture)

Principally the aim is to prioritize how national security and threat perceptions are both created and manifested
in a real-time situation. Operationalizing national security and threats perceptions from how agenda is set and
interests defined is principal requirement. Students would be encouraged to focus on newspapers and opinions
published on current issues keeping in view both their relevance and efficacy. Following readings would,
nonetheless be kept in context:

1. National Security Strategy of United States of America, 2017

2. Threat Perceptions in International Relations, Janice Gross Stein, Oxford University Press, 2013
3. Security Threats and Public Perception: Digital Russia and the Ukraine Crisis, Elizaveta Gaufman
4. Pakistan National Action Plan
5. Formulating National Security Strategy: Past Experience and Future Choices, CSIS-2017
Marking Criteria: (can be changed/amended according to necessitating circumstances)

Evaluation Tool Number Marks (per evaluation) Weightage

1 Assignments 01 10 10
2 Quizzes 03 05 15
3 Presentation 02 05 10
4 Mid Term Exam 01 25 25
5 Final Exam 01 40 40
100 100

I. CORE CONCEPTS TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND THREAT PERCEPTIONS

a. NATIONAL SECURITY AND NATIONAL INTEREST

i. Elements of National Power
ii. State and National interest determination
iii. Components of National Security
1. Military Component
2. Intelligence Component
3. Foreign Policy/Diplomacy Component

b. THREATS AND THREAT PERCEPTIONS

i. ‘Perceptions’ in threat Perceptions
1. Actual Threats
2. Perceived Threats
ii. Threat Calculus
1. Economic calculus
2. Social Calculus
3. Political Calculus
4. Strategic Calculus
a. Diplomatic strategy
b. Policy and Strategy
c. Dynamics of politics
i. National Politics
ii. Regional Politics
iii. International Politics

II. DYNAMICS AND DIMSNENSIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND THREAT

PERCEPTIONS: A COMPREHENSIVE CASE STUDY OF UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA (2015-2017)
a. National Security Strategy of United States of America, 2015
b. National Security Strategy of United States of America, 2017
III. PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY AND THREAT PERCEPTIONS
i. Understanding Pakistan’s security architecture
ii. Pakistan’s National Security Determinants
1. Regional Conflicts
2. International Power Politics
3. Ethnic Polarization
4. Sectarian Environment
5. Financial/Economic Patterns

iii. Pakistan’s major threat perceptions

1. Terrorism
2. Transnational Interventionism
3. Nuclear Deterrence
4. Militarization and weaponization of region
5. Territorial incongruities
6. Economic condition
7. Alliances and international posturing
8. Diplomatization and organizational process
9. Environment and climate change
 Class Participation
Students are expected to attend every class and to arrive to class on time. Failure to attend class and
participate regularly will result in a significant reduction in your final grade. Students will be called on
during class even if they do not volunteer, similar to the method used in most schools. Therefore,
students will be expected to be prepared for every class. If you are not prepared for a particular class, you
can notify the Instructor through e-mail or in-person prior to start of class and you will not be called on
during that class period. The goal is not to embarrass anyone but to ensure that everyone prepares for
class and has opportunity to participate. If you are scheduled to be on-call and you are either not prepared
or you are absent and you have not notified the Instructor beforehand you will receive a zero for
participation for that class. Class participation includes volunteering in class and actively contributing
during class. Students can also submit questions before class that will count towards participation grade.
If you have difficulty speaking in public you can schedule an appointment with early in the semester to
work out an alternative assignment.
 Presentations
Students shall be required to present various topics in class assigned by the instructor and drafts can be
submitted for counterchecking before final presentation delivered on the assigned dates.
 Assignments and Research Work
Students are required to submit assignments and research articles according to the format authorized by
the university. Research should focus on originality and purpose should be clear. Percentage weightage of
the article can vary depending on performance of students throughout their course.
 Mid Term Examination
There will be one midterm exam in this class. Failure to take the exam on its scheduled date may result in
a failing grade for that exam. Absences from the exam will be excused on an emergency basis only and
will require written proof.
 End Term Examination
Final exam will be one of the most important segments of student assessment and would be the major
determinant for grades for the duration of study. Absence from the exam will be excused only with
written proof approved and allowed by Head of Department, School of Integrated Social Sciences.