The Pros & Cons of Immigration Reform

Immigration reform helped ramp up deportations, secured funds for a longer border wall, and
suspended the entry of most new immigrants because of Covid-19.

The Trump administration reduced the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States—
a group that totaled roughly 10.5 million people in 2017, according to the latest available data from
the Pew Research Center.2 While former President Trump cited an array of reasons for this
approach, from human trafficking concerns to abstract population caps—“our country is full,” he
announced in April 2019—his argument has always been largely an economic one.

Indeed, former President Trump repeatedly drove home the idea, in both direct and subtle ways,
that the job market is essentially a zero-sum game—Honduran and Mexican immigrants who cross
onto U.S. soil ultimately take jobs away from U.S. citizens and suppress their pay. “We are proposing
an immigration plan that puts the jobs, wages, and safety of American workers first,” Trump said on
May 16, 2019, at a White House event announcing a new visa program that would limit Latino
recipients.

Immigration Reform and the 2020 Election

The thinking of former President Trump and his supporters set up one of the biggest ideological
battlefronts of the 2020 presidential election. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala
Harris, and Cory Booker all advocated downgrading illegal border crossings to a civil offense. Even
President Joe Biden, who served as vice president when close to 3 million undocumented
immigrants were deported, was quick to play up their positive contributions to society.

So who’s right and who’s wrong when it comes to undocumented workers and the economy? We’ll
look beyond the heated rhetoric and explain what researchers from both sides of the political
spectrum have to say. 

Impact on the Job Market

Trump’s hard line on undocumented immigrants was wrapped in the assumption that they’ll take
jobs from American citizens. On the surface, this seems like a pretty logical conclusion for a cohort
that represents nearly 11 million people. But immigration advocates said this argument ignores the
dynamic nature of the job market.

First, it’s important to recognize that immigrants aren’t just workers—they’re also consumers who
buy goods and services. Some researchers believe mass deportation would therefore shrink overall
economic output. An analysis by New American Economy, a bipartisan research and advocacy
organization focused on immigration policy, concludes that such a policy would result in a $1.6
trillion reduction in GDP.4

What’s more, undocumented workers often take low-skill jobs in which American citizens have little
interest, including those in labor-intensive fields such as agriculture and forestry. Another NAE
report found that low-skilled immigrants are 18% percent more likely to take jobs that require
unusual hours than their U.S.-born counterparts.5
And because birthrates are dropping in the U.S.—the average American woman is having 1.7
children, according to The World Bank—some experts say immigrants can help fill a hole in the labor
market that will ultimately boost the economy.6

“The future growth prospects of the U.S. economy are severely constrained by a lack of working-age
population growth,” the non-partisan Committee for Economic Development of The Conference
Board (CED) wrote in a 2018 policy brief. “Fewer workers means less output without increases in
productivity so large as to be highly unlikely.”7

Because roughly half the immigrants from Latin America are between the ages of 18 and 35, the
United States doesn’t have to shoulder the cost of their schooling. Bringing in even 100,000 of these
immigrants annually would represent an injection of human capital that would otherwise cost us $47
billion in education and childcare costs, says CED.