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The Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm: Its Socioeconomic-Ecological Impact and Sustainability Lessons Learned
The Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm: Its Socioeconomic-Ecological Impact and Sustainability Lessons Learned
E
xtreme weather and climate events shape the evolution of
human and natural systems (Sarewitz and Pielke 2001).
Throughout history, their unexpected occurrence has
repeatedly caught societies off guard and led to disasters and
contributed to the downfall of prosperous dynasties and civiliza-
tions (Diamond 2005; Yancheva et al. 2007). Although extreme
events are an act of physical processes of the climate system,
their impact is determined in the context of human and natural
systems (Sarewitz and Pielke 2001; Diamond 2005). Economic
structures, societal behaviors, critical technologies, and managed
and unmanaged life support systems interact to either prevent or
promote the transition of natural events into human disasters.
Understanding this transition is essential for identifying and
reducing the vulnerability of human systems to extreme events,
and for bridging the gap between science and decision making.
Sustainability science seeks to develop this knowledge, and me-
teorologists can and must play a critical role in this mission.
Case studies of extreme weather and climate events are pivotal
to understanding their societal impact in the context of sustain-
ability science. To avoid being constrained by the idiosyncrasy
of an individual event, a case study must
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meteorological disturbance to a socioeconomic and Mountains region (~60°E; Fig. 1) split the westerlies
ecological disaster. into northern and southern branches. The northern
Our goal was to draw from the disaster lessons and branch attained Arctic properties from the frigid
general principles of sustainable socioeconomic and Arctic surface and then swung back to the south and
ecological development that would be useful in plan- eventually ended up in China. The southern branch
ning for future extreme weather and climate events. circumvented the Pamir Mountains (~39°N, 72°E)
We analyzed the atmospheric general circulation pat- and the Himalayas and traveled to the northern
tern that spawned the ice storm, the impact on critical Indian Ocean. It picked up heat and moisture from
infrastructures, the damage to forest and agricultural the Bay of Bengal and then turned northeastward
ecosystems, the societal response to the disaster, and toward China.
the postdisaster policy influence. We related the struc- Associated with the Ural blocking high was a long
tural vulnerabilities of the socioeconomic and ecologi- pressure ridge stretching all the way to the Moroccan
cal systems exposed by the event to past economic and coast through the western Mediterranean Sea. To
ecosystem management policies and practices. the southeast of this ridge lay a trough extending
from the Aral Sea (45°N, 60°E) through the eastern
THE STORM. The 2008 ice storm was a conse- Mediterranean Sea to northern Africa. Both the
quence of convergence of warm, moist mT and cold 500-hPa ridge and trough were shifted southeastward
cP air masses (Fig. 1). Here we provide a general and were stronger than normal. Meanwhile, to the east
description of key meteorological drivers; technical of the Eurasian continent, the East Asian (500 hPa)
aspects are available in references cited. trough (L. Wang et al. 2009) extended from the Sea of
Okhotsk through the Sea of Japan to the East China
The convergence of two air masses. Around the start of Sea. Compared with its normal wintertime strength,
2008, a persistent summer-monsoon-like flow pattern the East Asian trough deepened in its northern half
formed unseasonably in Southeast Asia. It drove mT
air masses from the Bay of Bengal and South China
Sea to southern and central China, increasing surface
temperatures (Fig. 2) and providing the region with
copious amounts of moisture (Fig. 10 in Shi et al. 2010).
About 10 January 2008, cP air masses also streamed into
the same region via central Asia and Mongolia, resulting
in a sudden surface temperature drop (Fig. 2). The mT
air overrode the cP air to develop an inverted, stable
atmospheric boundary layer with a slanted stationary
frontal surface that stretched across 20° of latitude [see
Figs. 3 and 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853], a favorable
configuration for freezing rains over a large region
(oval in Fig.1).
The convergence of mT and cP air masses was
caused by an unusual atmospheric general circu-
lation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere (see
Fig. 4 in Wen et al. 2009; Fig. 7 in Bao et al. 2010;
Fig. 7 in Ding et al. 2008, p. 816; also see Shi et al.
2010; Ding et al. 2009; Gao et al. 2008; Tao et al.
2008; D. Wang et al. 2008; L. Wang et al. 2008;
Y. Wang et al. 2008; Z. Wang et al. 2008; Yang et al.
2008). Over the Eurasian continent, the upper-
tropospheric flow (200 hPa) was characterized by
a southeastward-shifted, stronger-than-normal
Middle East jet stream over northern Saudi Arabia
F ig . 2. Daily mean surface temperatures and pre-
and by a northwestward-retracted but also stronger- cipitation accumulation at the weather station of (a)
than-normal East Asian jet stream to the south of Changsha and (b) Guiyang. The large drop in the tem-
Japan. In the middle troposphere (500 hPa), a strong peratures indicates that the advancing mT is abruptly
blocking high over the meridionally oriented Ural displaced from the surface by the arriving cP.
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increased via lee cyclogenesis, resulting from cold air inces of Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hubei,
pouring down the southern slope of the Himalayas. Anhui, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Henan
This air had its origin in the anticyclonic flow around that record-breaking freezing rains occurred (these
the east side of the Asian continental high, which was provinces are located roughly within the pink oval in
split by the Pamir Mountains. As a result of the forma- Fig. 1). Ice accumulation averaging more than 50 mm
tion of an active Bangladesh southern branch trough in radial ice thickness (RIT) was observed across
and the stronger-than-normal northwestward-shifted the region (Table 1). On surfaces of roads in Hunan
subtropical western Pacific high, the wind flow pat- Province, ice thickness of more than 100 mm was
tern in Southeast Asia showed striking similarities to observed. The number of ice days varied across the
that of the Asian summer monsoon. affected region, but it was typically between 10 and
As the mT air overrode the cP air, freezing rains 20 days. In parts of Hunan and Guizhou, ice lasted
fell [Fig. 2; see also Figs. 1 and 2 in Shi et al. (2010)]. up to 27 days. For comparison, the great 1998 North
The warm layer melted snowflakes and ice particles American ice storm lasted for 5 days with a 45-mm
falling from aloft. The cold layer at the bottom was ice load recorded in the storm’s center (Gyakum and
too shallow to freeze raindrops before they hit the Roebber 2001).
ground. Upon striking the ground, supercooled The longevity of the 2008 ice storm was a conse-
raindrops spread out and froze, coating the surface quence of a stable atmospheric general circulation
with thick glistening ice. Although heavy snow and pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. During the
sleet also fell during the event, it was the ice that did period of the ice storm, the Ural blocking high was
the most damage (Ding et al. 2008). unusually strong and persistent. As soon as the Ural
blocking high dissipated, the ice storm ended (Ding
The unprecedented ice extent and accumulation. Ice et al. 2008). A strong and persistent Ural blocking
storms are not uncommon in South-central China high coupled with an abnormal development of
because the region’s topography is conducive to cold pressure systems to the east of China, including the
air damming (Fig. 1). Indeed, observations indicated East Asian trough, the northwestern Pacific high,
cold air damming during individual episodes of the and the subtropical western Pacific high, led to the
2008 ice storm [see Fig. 7 in Shi et al. (2010); Figs. 3 longevity of the storm within China. As pointed out
and 4 in Tao et al. (2008), 852–853].
However, the 2008 event was unprec-
edented in duration, spatial extent,
and ice load. Starting on 10 January,
four separate waves of freezing rain
(10–16 January, 18–22 January, 25–
29 January, and 31 January–6 Febru-
ary) struck the same region [Fig. 2,
also see Fig. 2a for regional average
in Shi et al. (2010)]. The intervals
between successive waves were too
short for the ice to melt or be broken
and cleared with shovels or even
military personnel carriers before
the next waves started (Fig. 4). Thus,
as waves of freezing rain came,
ice kept accumulating on the sur-
faces of trees, crops, power lines,
roofs, highways, train tracks, and
bridges. By the time the last wave Fig. 4. (a) Ice-coated road (2 Feb 2008 in northern Guangdong Province),
ended, 20 provinces and autono- (b) fallen electrical lines (3 Feb 2008, southern Hunan Province), and
(c),(d) ice-stranded travelers in Guangzhou Railway Station in the
mous regions had been severely af-
southern coastal city of Guangzhou (31 Jan 2008). These pictures were
fected. Based on weather station data taken during the fourth (last) wave of freezing rain. Photos courtesy
compiled by China Meteorological of (a) Xinhua News Agency, (b) Hunan Forestry Administration, and
Administration (Z. Wang et al. 2008; (c),(d) Nanfang Metropolitan Daily (the photographer for photos (c)
Yang et al. 2008), it was in the prov- and (d) are Yiqi Chen and Qianhua Fang, respectively).
Table 1. Examples of observed ice thickness during the 2008 Chinese ice storm (10 Jan–6 Feb 2008).
Location Radial ice thickness (mm) Date observed
Mount Jigongshan, Henan Province
160 12 Jan 2008
(31°50´N, 114°05´E)
Mount Huangshan, Anhui Province
61 27 Jan 2008
(32°42´N, 114°03´E)
Mount Lushan, Jiangxi Province
84 27 Jan 2008
(29°34´N, 115°58´E)
Tongren, Guizhou Province
83 29 Jan 2008
(27°44´N, 109°11´E)
Most parts of Hunan Province >70 mm Throughout the storm period
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Table 2. Major direct impacts of the 2008 Chinese ice storm.
Description
Categories (destroyed or otherwise stated) Source
Human life 129 dead, 1.7 million displaced Zhao et al. (2008)
36,740 high-voltage transmission lines; 8,381 China Electricity Council
Infrastructure Power grids
towers; 2,018 transformer stations (2008)
Communication 35,000 telephone poles; 20,000 mobile phone News Office of the State
systems base stations Council (2008)
40% of the winter crops in China, 75 million
Food production Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture (2008)
livestock (mostly poultry)
Jin et al. (2008); Li and Wang
Apiculture 30% of bee colonies in Zhejiang Province
(2008)
3.4 million pairs of broodstock, 0.42 million
Aquaculture Ministry of Agriculture (2008)
tons of fingerlings, 0.45 million tons of adult fish
20 million hectares with >10% standing volume
Forest Resources Management
Forests loss, 10% of national forest cover, 3% of
Department (2008)
national forest standing volume
No systematic survey but dead wild animals Song (2008);
Wildlife
widely seen in natural reserves S. Wang et al. (2008)
Buildings 0.5 million collapsed, 1.7 million partial damage Zhao et al. (2008)
inoperable pumps. The railway system, the principal price of a pack of instant noodles rose from less than a
mode of passenger movement in China, was disrupted dollar to nearly 10 dollars. In locations such as railway
not by the ice cover on tracks per se but by powerless stations and inside train carriages, no food could be
electric trains. Meanwhile, highways were blocked by bought. Because the storm struck the transportation
ice, and airports were closed because of treacherous hubs of China, the entire country was affected. The
runways and atmospheric conditions. consumer price index nationwide increased by 34%
The simultaneous failure of all three transport from December of 2007 to February of 2008 (National
modes could not have come at a worse time. It oc- Bureau of Statistics 2008a,b).
curred right before the Chinese New Year, the most Communication systems were also knocked out
important holiday for family reunions. Even with collectively (Table 2). Communication system failure
good weather, travel during this time of year in China may be a factor in the initial sluggish governmental re-
is hectic and demands optimum operation of all sponse, leading to ineffective traffic controls on high-
transportation systems. Transportation disruption ways and crowd management in railway stations.
quickly turned into logistical nightmare for the entire The storm claimed 129 lives (Zhao et al. 2008). The
country. A large number of people were stranded in number of casualties was relatively small when exam-
railway stations, airports, and highways. An estimate ined in the context of 1.5 million people displaced,
of 5.8 million travelers were stuck in railway stations half a million buildings collapsed, and other massive
alone (News Office of the State Council 2008). At physical damages (Table 2). The fact that the disaster
one time, the front square of the Guangzhou Railway occurred just days before the most cherished fam-
Station was jam-packed with 800,000 people (Fig. 4). ily reunion holiday may have stimulated among the
In one highway section in Hunan, more than 20,000 Chinese people a sense of kinship and thus encour-
vehicles with more than 60,000 passengers were im- aged them to work together to overcome the crisis
mobilized by ice and snow in every direction. (Xin 2008; Fig. 4). More important to the limited loss
With all transportation systems frozen, supply of human life was the fact that ambient temperatures
chains of energy, food, and other vital goods were were ironically not particularly low for that time of
broken. Coal reserves reached emergency levels. year. In the affected region, winter temperatures
Power plants had to be shut down. Food shortages below –5°C are common. The coldest winter (1954/55)
occurred in a region that has plenty under normal of the recent history had minimum temperatures of
conditions. In some cities, food prices soared by –18° to –21°C in the Huai River basin, –10° to –15°C
1,000%. For example, in the city of Chenzhou, the in the Yangtze River basin, and –5° to –8°C in south
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With such severe large-scale damage, forests in national economic policy rethinking and redirection.
central and southern China will likely act as carbon There is no indication this has happened.
sources for years to come. Before the storm, forests The policy influence of these two events likely
in this region accounted for 65% of the total ter- differed for multiple reasons. Public opinion blamed
restrial carbon sink of the country and much of this deforestation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze
sink was due to plantations (Piao et al. 2009). Given River for the 1998 flood, whereas the 2008 ice storm
the overwhelming importance of this region in the was believed to be an act of nature; although, in both
overall Chinese terrestrial carbon sink, it is doubtful cases a combination of natural forces and human
that the Chinese ecosystems will continue to serve factors was responsible for the losses. The Chinese
as a net carbon sink for the country until the forests meteorological community has made great progress
in this region are reestablished. Further research on in improving forecast accuracy, but only recently has
this issue is needed. attention been paid to meeting users’ evolving needs
The sudden loss of forest plantations created un- for extreme weather forecasts. The public understood
certainties for the livelihood of tens of thousands of floods relatively well but had poor knowledge about
households who depended on the plantations for cash. ice storms and their potential impacts. Finally, the
These families drew their incomes from both timber 2008 ice storm was closely followed by distracting
and nontimber products (e.g., oleoresin tapping). social and natural incidents. In March, ethnic un-
Because most plantations were destroyed all together, rest and deadly riots erupted in the Tibet Autono-
these families will have to look for new sources of mous Region. In May, the great Sichuan earthquake
income for decades to come even if they can manage occurred. In August, the extravagant 2008 Summer
to replant the plantations now. Olympics took place. By the time the flame of the
Olympic torch was extinguished, a rare confluence
POSTDISASTER POLICY INFLUENCE: THE of sorrow and ecstasy had erased any trace of re-
IMPORTANCE OF CIRCUMSTANCES. A membrance of that ice storm from the minds of most
weather disaster can benefit long-term societal devel- people. Now with fresh memory gone, the window of
opment if the society is willing to grab the “window of opportunity for change offered by this disaster is in
opportunity for change” immediately after the event danger of being lost.
to deal with the vulnerabilities exposed (Sarewitz
and Pielke 2001; Birkmann et al. 2010). However, SUSTAINABILITY LESSONS. The 2008 ice
whether the society can materialize the benefit may storm disaster and the societal response revealed
have nothing to do with the disaster itself. A com- several lessons of broad implication. Without con-
parison of the policy influence of the 2008 ice storm
with that of the 1998 Yangtze River flood (Zong and
Chen 2000) reveals this point. The two events were
similar in their severity and direct economic loss:
both were 100-yr extreme events with a direct loss of
more than $20 billion. The indirect loss of the 2008
ice storm was likely higher because it destroyed large
areas of forests. But in terms of policy influence, the
two events could not differ more. The 1998 flood
shocked the Chinese government into developing and
implementing a comprehensive national forest policy
(Zhang et al. 2000; Liu and Diamond 2005; Liu et al.
2008). That policy, which is still in effect today, has
transformed China into a country with the highest
growth rate of forest cover in the world (FAO 2009).
In contrast, only a few technical adjustments to in- Fig . 6. Secondary hazards after ice storm damage.
frastructure have been made after the 2008 ice storm; (left) A burned Masson pine (Pinus massoniana L.) stand
that had been damaged earlier by the ice storm in
for example, the standards of ice loading capacities of
Guiyang County, Hunan Province; 28 Apr 2008. (right)
the electrical power grids have been increased and the A diseased Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata L.) in
transportation sector has been ordered to improve its an ice-damaged plantation in Qianyanzhou Ecological
disaster preparedness. While these adjustments are Research Station, Jiangxi Province; 23 Apr 2008.
necessary, the 2008 disaster calls for much broader (Photos by Lianhong Gu.)
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the greatest tree species diversity in the world, and extreme events. The Chinese economy is regionally
central and southern China is the main biodiversity imbalanced. Large cities and coastal areas dominate
hot spot (Liu et al. 2003). The region has plenty of over countryside and inland regions. The regional
candidate species for plantations with a high degree economic imbalance has created an extraordinary
of resistance to ice storms (Fig. 5, panel d). Hindsight number of migratory workers. In 2005 alone, an es-
suggests that past reforestation efforts have not made timated 126 million people left their homeland and
use of this advantage. Instead, too much emphasis has looked for jobs somewhere else (Gong et al. 2008).
been placed on short-term growth; the long-term risk Consequently, tidal waves of human transportation
of extreme events has been ignored. Past management occur within about 15 days around the annual fam-
decisions allowed a single extreme event with a dura- ily reunion time: Chinese New Year. On an average
tion of days to destroy the results of decades of invest- day during this period, 5 million passengers travel by
ment. Sustainable forestry requires balancing fast train alone. All transport systems attempt to operate
growth under normal conditions with survivability near-full capacities or breaking points to bring travel-
under extreme conditions, which can be obtained by ers home on time. As a result, China is exceptionally
diversifying tree species in plantations at local and vulnerable to winter storms during this heavy travel
regional scales. period.
Sustainable extraction of nontimber goods is es- The regional economic imbalance also means that
sential to planning for the risk of extreme events in critical infrastructures are highly concentrated. The
forest resources use. In China and other developing majority of strategic highways, railways, and electric
countries, nontimber products from forests provide grids are located in a long, narrow, north–south band
continuous sources of income for villagers and between Beijing and Guangzhou. Any disruption
are essential for combating deforestation and for at one point of this long band influences the entire
promoting reforestation (FAO 2009). However, the country. Additionally, the imbalance increases the
2008 ice storm demonstrated that excessive extraction distance between the production and consumption
of nontimber products jeopardizes tree survivability sites of life-supporting materials. As the population
during extreme events. In our survey of pine planta- of China’s cities grows, food and energy must be
tions in central and southern China, we found wide- brought in from places increasingly far away, creating
spread use of excessive bark cuts for oleoresin tapping, more opportunities for extreme events to block the
often with more than half of the stem circumference distribution channels and decouple consumption
removed. These excessive cuts may not lead to tree from production.
death under normal conditions but exacerbate the Formalized institutional mechanisms are needed to
destruction of pine plantations by the storm. Planning ensure that unexpected opportunities to learn lessons
for sustainable extraction of nontimber products from weather disasters are not lost in distracting
should be an integral part of the governing strategy circumstances. Our analysis of postdisaster policy
for the long-term use of forest resources to accom- responses indicates that governments and citizens
modate the risk of extreme events. may react to weather and climate disasters of similar
Extreme events can cause food shortages directly magnitude in starkly contrasting ways, and whether
by destroying crops and indirectly by disrupting food valuable lessons can be learned and implemented
distribution channels. In modern societies, sites of depends on circumstances. This is unfortunate since
food production and consumption are separated. nature does not give humans many opportunities
Abundance of food at the production site cannot to learn from deadly weather disasters (Dale et al.
guarantee food security at the consumption site 1998). Formalized institutional mechanisms are
unless channels between the two are kept open. The needed to prevent distractions and to ensure that
2008 ice storm showed that there are both direct when a weather disaster occurs, nations may learn
and indirect paths for extreme events to cause food from it thoroughly. Development of such mechanisms
shortage. At least during and immediately after an requires concerted efforts of natural and social scien-
extreme event, the indirect path (disrupting food dis- tists, NGOs, and governmental agencies.
tribution channels) can be more important than the
direct path (destroying crops or reducing crop yields). CONCLUDING REMARKS. The 2008 Chinese
Attention to both paths is needed to fully prepare for ice storm demonstrated that an extreme event of days
the impact of extreme events on food security. in duration can undo socioeconomic and ecological
Concentrated economic development and re- structures decades in the making. Sustainable national
gional imbalance increases societal vulnerability to development requires balancing economic growth
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