07 - Introduction to Reliability

Maintenance Management
Bandung, Mart 2021
 Customer I want what I want
Satisfaction when I want it

Reliability is a discipline that has been developed

to address this concern.
1. Reliability of an Item ?
 The Reliability of an item is the probability
that the item will perform a specified
function under specified operational and
environmental conditions, at and
throughout a specified time.
 Reliability was developed to provide methods
for assuring that a product or service will
function when it required to do so by its user.
Definition :
The Reliability of an item is the probability that the
item will perform a specified function under
specified operational and environmental
conditions, at and throughout a specified time.

Notice :
1. The Reliability is a probability.  Random
2. The definition is depends on a specified
function under specified operational
and environmental conditions, at and
throughout a specified time.  dealing
2. Demand Time :
 The definition of reliability allows for the
specification of demand time to be either an
instant in time or a time interval.
 In actually the demand time may be a
sequence of instances (or periods or cycles)
or it may be a series of intervals. That’s
depend on the type of system or service.
Demand time-cont.
 When the demand time of an item
performance is either a discrete instant in
time or series of instances, we shall use the
term Cycle-dependent performance.
 If the demand time of an item’s
performance is a time interval or is
continuous, we describe the performance as
time dependent performance.
Reliability
Item
Performance

Cycle- dependent Time-dependent

performance performance

Repeated Finite Continuously

One Shot mission operating
cycles

Success Success Mission Availability

probability probability reliability MTBF
MTBMA
2.1. One Shot - Item
 The reliability is the best described as its
success probability, the probability that the item
will be perform as expected at specified instance
of the item demand.
 Example, wooden match. If you the user,
strikes the match and its light, success has been
achieved. On the other hand, if it fail to light
(that is, it is capable of lighting no matter how
many times you strikes it), a failure.
One Shot Item – cont.
Regarding the definition of reliability in this
example, the item is wooden match, the
specified function is the lighting of the
match, the specified environmental
conditions consist of typical ambient
condition (dry, no wind, etc), and specified
time is your demand time (that is, the point in
time that you choose to strike the match).
A one shot time is absolutely useless if it
functions at any time other than demand time.
Reliability of One – shot Item

Where :
 P(S) = success probability
N = number of sequential trials match strikes
S = number of successes
F = number of failures
2. 2. Repeated cycles
 As with one-shot items, The reliability of an
item that function through repeated cycles
is also its success probability.
 As example, if you, the user, drop coin in to
postage stamp machine, the reliability of
that stamp machine is the probability
that the machine provides the
expected stamp for you.
Repeated cycles – cont.
 If the machine provides the stamp you ordered
and the correct change, if applicable, the
functioning is success, you got what you
wanted when you wanted it. In the other
hand, you fail to get the stamp, or you get the
wrong stamp, or you get the wrong change, it is
a failure.
 The reliability of that stamp machine is the
probability that the machine provides the
expected stamp for you.
 Reliability of Repeated-Cycles Item

Where :
 P(S) = success probability
N = number of trials (either success or failure)
S = number of successes
F = number of failures
2. 3.Time-dependent items
of Specified Mission
 When an item’s function is time dependent and it is
needed throughout a time interval but only throughout
that specified time interval its reliability is known as
mission reliability, expressed as
R = R(t)
 Where :
R(t) = reliability defined as a function of time, (i.e., the
reliability for the specified duration t)
t = specified mission time duration
Example :
Time dependent items of specified mission

1. A satellite launching rocket, which must operate long

enough to launch the satellite but need not operate
beyond that. So if the time to launch is, say 30 minute,
the rocket must be operate without any failure during
that 30 min mission, after that time we do not care
about it. Hence, its mission reliability is R = R(t) =
R(30 min).
2. Having dinner at restaurant.
2. 4.Time-dependent items of
Continuously operating -Item

1. The item is required to operate continuously, forever or for

the duration of a long, extended service life. Personal
computer, home heating etc.
2. For example, we may consider the probability that the
electric power is provided without incident during the
hours of 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM. In the other words, the
interval reliability for a fictitious mission within our
infinite demand time.
2. 4.Time-dependent items of
Continuously operating -Item

Reliability parameter for continuously items.

 MTBF = Mean Time Between Failure
 MDT = Mean Down Time
 MTBMA = Mean Time Between Maintenance
Actions
 MTTR = Mean Time to Repair
Continuously operating items
 Availability and Outage, outage is complement of availability.
 Outage is the portion of time that we can expect our item to
be down.
availability = 1 – outage rate
 In a simplest possible situation an item’s availability is :

 Outage rate (OR)

Reliability Parameter
1. When demand time is an instant or a series of instances,
success of probability is used.
2. When demand time is an interval, mission reliability is
used.
3. When demand time is continuous, we use MTBF and
Availability, possibly along with MTBMA, MTTR, and
MDT.
4. For continuously operating items normally in a standby
mode we also use dependability.
Reliability Parameter
 Success probability is the change that an item that operate
discretely will function as specified in a given trial.
 Mission reliability is the probability that an item will
operate without failure throughout a specified interval.
 MTBF is the expected average time between failure events
that cause the item to go down.
 MTBMA is the expected average time between events
requiring maintenance, whether or not the item is down
during the maintenance.
 MTTR is the expected average time to restore an item after
a failure event or as a routine, scheduled maintenance action,
whether or not the item is down during the restoration.
 MDT is the expected average downtime for restoration
activities.
 Availability is the fraction of time that an item is actually
operating ( if it is an active item) or operable (if it is a
standby item).
 Operational readiness is the availability of the standby
item while standby.
 Dependability is the probability that standby item will be
operable upon demand and then will remain operating,
without failure, throughout its required demand time.
3. Computing Reliability Parameters
 Intent :
Reliability deals with the likelihood that a
product or service will perform for its user
when user demand it.
reliability is a probability function.
3.1 Reliability is a probability function.
 For cycle dependent operation, where reliability is defined as success
probability P(S) , the following are true :
1. 0 ≤ P(S) ≤ 1
2. P(S) = 1 implies certainty of success.
3. P(S) = 0 implies certainty of failure.
4. Let Q = P(F) = unreliability. R = P(S) and Q = P(F) are mutually exclusive
and exhaustive. R + Q = 1
 For time dependent operation :
1. 0 ≤ R(t) ≤ 1
2. R(t) = 1 implies certainty of success.
3. R(t) = 0 implies certainty of failure.
4. Let Q (t) is the unreliability. At the time t R = R(t) and Q = Q(t) are
mutually exclusive and exhaustive. R + Q = 1
3.2 Failure Rate
 One shot item and other types of cycle dependent items
failure rates designated in failure per cycle. Since the
reliability of a cycle dependent item is the success
probability, or rate of success per cycle, reliability becomes
R=1-f
where f is the failure rate in failure per cycle.
 Example 3.1 :
a billing process that generate monthly statement has a failure
rate of 3.5 per 10 million cycles. What is the reliability of
that process.
f  3.5 per107 cycles  3.5 x10 7 percycle
R  1  f  0.99999965
3.3 Failure rate as function of time
 If the failure rate is assumed to be constant,
λ(t) = λ, the relationship between
reliability and failure rate becomes :
t
   ( t ) dt
R (t )  e 0
 e t
R (t )  e t
Example 3.2
 A type of power supply used in a computer is
assumed to have a constant failure rate of 8.5
failure per million hour. What is its reliability
within the system for a 5000 hour mission ?

λ = 8.5 x 10-6 /h t = 5000 h

λ t = 5000 x 8.5 x 10-6 = 0.0425
R(t) = e-0.0425 = 0.958
3.4 Mean Time Between Failure - MTBF


MTBF   R(t )dt
t 0

If and only if the item has constant failure rate, its MTBF is

MTBF  1 / 
Example 3.3
 Compute MTBF for the power supply of
example 3.2.
 Since the failure rate is constant,
MTBF = 1/λ = 1 / 8.5 x 10-6 /h =
118,000 h
Availability
 The fraction of time that the item is actually operating or
operable. So, availability (A) is :
MTBF
A
MTBF  MDT

 Example 3.4 :
if the MDT of the power supply of example 3.2 and 3.3 si 2
h. find its avalibility :
MTBF 118 ,000 h
A 
MTBF  MDT 118 ,000  2 h
A  0 .99998
 Reliability for different configurations

3. Hybrid Configuration
1
1 2 N 2

Overall reliability = Ro = ?
 Reliability for different configurations

4. Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR)

Overall reliability = Ro = [3C2 * R2 * (1-R)] + [R3]

Maintainability
 Maintainability of a system is the probability of isolating and
repairing a “fault” in the system within a given time.
 Maintainability is given by:
 M(t) = 1 – exp(-µt)
 Where µ is the repair rate
 And t is the permissible time constraint for the maintenance
action

 µ = 1/(Mean Time To Repair) = 1/MTTR

 M(t) = 1 – exp(-t/MTTR)
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