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Global warming projections to 2100 using simple CO2 greenhouse gas

modeling and comments on CO2 climate sensitivity factor

Article  in  Atmospheric Pollution Research · August 2016

DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2016.08.002

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 Atmospheric Pollution Research xxx (2016) 1e5

H O S T E D BY Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Atmospheric Pollution Research

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Short Communication

Global warming projections to 2100 using simple CO2 greenhouse gas

modeling and comments on CO2 climate sensitivity factor
Jan E. Szulejko a, Pawan Kumar b, Akash Deep c, Ki-Hyun Kim a, *
a
Atmospheric Environment & Air Quality Management Lab, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222, Wangsimni-Ro,
Seoul 133-791, South Korea
b
Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110 016, India
c
Central Scientific Instruments Organization (CSIR-CSIO), Sector 30 C, Chandigarh, 160030, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: As global climate change auspiciously transcends national boundaries, it is imperative to make
Received 23 March 2016 effective treaties to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (e.g., CO2 in particular) while improving
Received in revised form energy usage efficiency. The scientific community through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
8 August 2016
Change (IPCC) has made reasonable anthropogenic global warming (AGW) predictions. However, the
Accepted 8 August 2016
Available online xxx
IPCC models have failed to predict the global warming pause since ca. 2000 to 2014. The 1880e2015
global temperature anomaly (GTA) can be modelled by the equation proposed in part by Loehle and
Scafetta, 2011, Open Atmos. Sci. J. 5, 74e86 with the incorporation of the CO2 sensitivity factor (c) in
Keywords:
COP21
this work: GTA ¼ a*cosðu*ðy  1880Þ þ fÞ þ c*lnð½CO2 y =½CO2 1958 Þ þ d*ðy  1958Þ þ e where a
Global warming projection (amplitude) ¼ 0.15  C, u (angular frequency) ¼ 2.p/58 rad y1, f (phase shift) ¼ 0.05 rad, c
Atmospheric CO2 projections (climate sensitivity factor) ¼ 2.52  C, y ¼ year, d ¼ 0.0013  C y1 (global warming since the Little
Estimated CO2 climate sensitivity factor Ice Age), [CO2] is the atmospheric CO2 concentration (in ppm), and e (constant) ¼ 0.02  C. The
Finite resources extracted model CSF (2.52  C (CSF)) is in excellent agreement with an earlier value of 2.52  C
(Callendar, 1938, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 64, 223e240 e corresponds to 283 K, a water vapor
pressure of 1,000 Pa, and a [CO2] range of 100e600 ppm), but is significantly smaller than the
average IPCC AR5 CSF (4.33  C). Hence, a more reasonable CSF would be 2.52  C based on actual
GTA data in the present work modeling. From that equation, the 2100 GTA is projected to be 0.3,
0.7, and 1.8  C under 3 representative 100.D[CO2]/([CO2].Dyear change scenarios of 0.5, 0.0, and
0.5%.y1, respectively, compared to the 2015 GTA of 0.9  C. The COP21 agreement calls for the GTA
to be less than 1.4  C (preferrably 0.9  C) by 2100, and this can only be achieved if the increase in
atmospheric CO2 level after 2015 is maintained at 0.0% per year.
Copyright © 2016 Turkish National Committee for Air Pollution Research and Control. Production and
hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
1.1. Background and finite resources
In 2015, the GTA was a record at 0.90  C due to a combination of
~ o (ENSO, 2016) and high atmospheric CO2 level of
a strong El Nin
400 ppm (NOAA-ESRL, 2016). In this context, it is vital to assess how
the reduction in CO2 emissions would help control the global
* Corresponding author. Fax: þ82 2 2220 1945.
E-mail address: kkim61@hanyang.ac.kr (K.-H. Kim).
Peer review under responsibility of Turkish National Committee for Air
Pollution Research and Control.
warming rates against the pursuit of increasing global GDP and
population. Only fools, economists, and politicians believe in un-
interrupted exponential growth with finite resources (e.g., fossil
fuels). This has been discussed in detail in a 1972 book “The limits to
growth” (Meadows et al., 1972). For example, at 2014 energy con-
sumption rates, the global proved reserves/production (R/P) ratios
for coal, oil, and natural gas are estimated to be 110, 52.5, and 54.1
years, respectively (BP, 2015). These estimates will be drastically
reduced if the global growth in real GDP per capita and population
continues at the present rate of 3.3 and 1.1% per year, respectively
(CIA, 2015).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2016.08.002
1309-1042/Copyright © 2016 Turkish National Committee for Air Pollution Research and Control. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Szulejko, J.E., et al., Global warming projections to 2100 using simple CO2 greenhouse gas modeling and
comments on CO2 climate sensitivity factor, Atmospheric Pollution Research (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2016.08.002
2 J.E. Szulejko et al. / Atmospheric Pollution Research xxx (2016) 1e5
1.2. The 21st conference of the parties (COP21) objectives
The 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21 under the United
Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) took
place in Paris, France (30 November to 13 December, 2015). The
main objective of COP21 was to negotiate a legally binding climate
agreement among 195 countries to keep global temperature
warming since 1800 well below 2.0  C (preferably 1.5  C) by 2100
(COP21, 2015). After COP21 concluded, over 195 countries have
publicly agreed in principle to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to
keep global warming to less than 2  C above pre-industrial level. As
expected, the developed and developing countries are in
disagreement to protect their own vested industrial interests with
pledging their own targets for emission reductions (IPCC, 2016).
A global program of 100 billion USD per annum has been pro-
posed by developed countries to help seek better solutions for
reducing future anthropogenic carbon emissions (COP21, 2015).
Although very laudable, developing countries appear to be rather
hesitant to directly accommodate such a program. Consequently, the
effectiveness of this program is yet unclear in many respects.
However, the world politico-economic community has still its own
vested interests to make this an intractable issue by judicious choice
of words in the final COP21 agreement which has precise legal
(diplomatic) weight, e.g., substituting shall (binding) with should
(non-binding) in many places in the Paris Agreement (Eddy, 2015).
The main highlights of COP21 in Paris include the following
salient points: (1) cut the carbon emissions as soon as possible, (2)
achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and
removals by sinks of greenhouse gases, i.e., a rise in [CO2] of 0.0%
per year (see CO2 Trend-2 in Fig. 1), (3) preferably limit the global
temperature rise since 1800 to 1.5  C in 2100 (corresponds to a
GTA ¼ 0.9  C in Fig. 1(b)), (4) strongly urges developed countries by
Fig. 1. (a) Past (1800e2014) and projected (2015e2100) atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels, (b) Modeled global temperature anomaly (1800e2100) and NOAA GTA
(1880e2014) (For Case-n (n ¼ 1 or 3) details, refer to Table 1).
Please cite this article in press as: Szulejko, J.E., et al., Global warming projections to 2100 using simple CO2 greenhouse gas modeling and
comments on CO2 climate sensitivity factor, Atmospheric Pollution Research (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2016.08.002
2020 to adopt a program and contribute $100 billion annually for
climate change mitigation and further provide appropriate tech-
nology and capacity-building and (5) review the progress in such
reduction efforts every five years (COP21, 2015). This agreement
was formally signed on April 22, 2016 (IPCC, 2016). On April 22,
2016, 175 parties (174 countries and EU; deadline for signing e April
21, 2017) have signed COP21 agreement; among those 174 coun-
tries, only 15 countries (all in the 3rd world) have deposited their
instruments of ratification with the United Nations. Note that the
Paris Agreement will come in force 30 days after its ratification by
at least 55 countries accounting for a total of 55% of global green-
house gas emissions (COP21-Signing, 2016).
Unfortunately, in the light of ongoing corruption practices and
inefficiencies in resource management in many countries, it is
doubtful how effectively such fund will be spent on publicly
announced intended purposes (Transparency-International, 2016).
It should be noted that the Paris Agreement stresses the need for
transparency and integrity in Article 4(13) (COP21, 2015).
2. Modelling and discussion
2.1. Global carbon dioxide emission projections
With the ongoing efforts, the global carbon emissions are pro-
jected to show a reduction in coming years (Le Que re
 et al., 2015).
An analysis of the long-term data of CO2 emissions since 1750
revealed that the atmospheric [CO2] has exponentially increased to
potentially dangerous levels mainly due to the burning of fossil
fuels (coal in particular) accompanied with massive anthropogenic
deforestation. According to Fig. 6 in IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 6, 98.7%
of all pooled CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from all sources
(206 Pg C y1, including fossil fuel emissions (7.8 Pg C y1)), are
removed by all sinks (203.3 Pg C y1) in 2008 (IPCC, 2016). An
“apparent removal efficiency” (ARE) of fossil fuel emissions into the
atmosphere of about 50% is often quoted which has no physical
basis as CO2 molecules in the atmospheric CO2 pool have no
memory or identification tags as to their source (see Section 2.2 for
further discussion).
The carbon stock (Pg.C) in the atmosphere has increased from
590 in 1750 to 830 in 2008. The fossil fuel coal carbon stock in 1750
which was estimated as 446e541 Pg.C is significantly lower than
the 2008 atmospheric carbon stock (IPCC, 2016) and the proved
reserves of coal (892 Pg) in 2015 (BP, 2015) (see also comments in
Section 1.1). In comparison, the carbon stock (Pg.C) of oil and nat-
ural gas are estimated to be 173e264 and 383e1135, respectively
(IPCC, 2016). Let's assume that the photosynthesis sink can be
increased by 2.2% while all other sources/sinks remain constant and
fossil fuel CO2 emission rate is held at 2014 level from 2015 onward.
Then, there should be no increase in the atmospheric [CO2]; the
corresponding GTA to 2100 under such scenarios is shown as trend-
2 in Fig. 1(a) and (b). The COP21 agreement requires a balance
between sources and sinks. Fig. 1(a) compares the levels of atmo-
spheric CO2 between the period 1800e2014 (based on Antarctic ice
core data (pre 1958) (Etheridge et al., 2015) and Mauna Loa Ob-
servatory data (1958e2014) (NOAA-ESRL, 2016) along with 3 post-
2014 scenarios if the changes in [CO2] (i.e., 100.D[CO2]/([CO2].Dy)
are maintained as 0.50, 0.00%, and 0.50%.y1. Fig. 1(b) shows the
corresponding GTA based on Fig. 1(a) CO2 trends using equation (2),
as discussed below in Section 2.3.
2.2. Apparent removal efficiency of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
The annual apparent removal efficiency (ARE) of anthropogenic
CO2 emissions into the atmosphere can be expressed as 100*(1D
[CO2]obs/D[CO2]emns), where in a given year, D[CO2]obs is the
 J.E. Szulejko et al. / Atmospheric Pollution Research xxx (2016) 1e5 3

Table 1
Parameter values used in Eqn. (2).

Parameter Units Case 1 (with CSF) Case 2 (no CSF) Case 3 (IPCC) Literature values

c (CSF) C 2.52 0.00 4.33 (2.52) (Callendar, 1938)
(2.2e6.5) (IPCC)

a C 0.15 0.19 0 (0.121) (Loehle and Scafetta, 2011)
u rad.y1 2p/58 2p/61 0 (2p/60) (Loehle and Scafetta, 2011)
f rad 0.05 0.35 0 n/a
d 
C.y1 0.0013 0.006 0 (0.0042, 0.0016) (Loehle and Scafetta, 2011)

e (offset) C 0.02 0.38 0.15 (0.30,0.32) (Loehle and Scafetta, 2011)
y year year year year n/a

such, the contributions of H2O vapor and CO2 to the greenhouse gas
warming are estimated to be 68% and 12%, respectively
(Abdussamatov, 2013). The approximate increase in GTA (DGTACO2)
due to CO2 (with H2O vapor in concert) (IPCC, 2016) is given by

~ o/La Nin
Fig. 2. Comparison of El Nin ~ a monthly temperature anomaly (upper panel)
(ENSO, 2016) with the apparent removal efficiency (ARE) (lower panel) of anthropo-
genic CO2 emissions from the atmosphere for the 1992e2015 period.
observed increase, and D[CO2]emns is the theoretical increase in
[CO2] due to anthropogenic emissions (em) if no sinks (ns) were
present. ARE is purely a mathematical fiction. For the periods
1935e1949, 1950e1969, 1970e1999, and 2000e2014, ARE values
were 81.5, 42.4, 43.8, and 47.8%, respectively. The true ARE for
anthropogenic CO2 emissions is closer to 98.7% (IPCC, 2016). The
ARE appears to be correlated to El Nin ~ o episodes (Fig. 2) (ENSO,
2016). In strong El Nin ~ o episodes, the ARE becomes small, e.g.,
5.7% in 1998 and 23.3% in 2015. When El Nin ~ o is weak (i.e., La Nin
~a
episodes), the ARE can be >60%. During WW-II, ARE reached 115%
in 1943 which may correspond to a strong La Nin ~ a episode in 1943
~ o episode is expected to peak
(Giese et al., 2010). The current El Nin
in 2016 (ENSO, 2016). After 2016, the ARE should increase again, as
the ocean surface cools thus increasing CO2 mass accommodation
as the apparent CO2/seawater Henry's law constant increases with
decreasing ocean surface temperature.
2.3. Climate sensitivity and global temperature anomaly projections
CO2 alone is not a significant greenhouse gas. Its small GHG
warming is important by increasing the atmospheric water vapor
which can then amplify the CO2 GHG effect or AGW (IPCC, 2016). As


½CO2f
DGTACO2 ¼ c$ln (1)
½CO2i
Where c is the climate sensitivity factor (CSF), and [CO2]f and
[CO2]i are the final and initial CO2 concentrations, respectively. The
individual (intrinsic) climate sensitivity factors (CSF) for H2O vapor
(at 10  C, 1000 Pa partial pressure) (Stephens and Tjemkes, 1993)
and CO2 (~40 Pa) (Hall and Manabe, 1999; Held and Soden, 2000)
are about 10  C and 1.5  C, respectively. However, the uncertainty
concerning the overall CO2 climate sensitivity including H2O is very
disturbing; the range most often quoted for the equilibrium global
mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric
CO2 concentration is 1.5  Ce4.5  C (Held and Soden, 2000). The
aforesaid CO2 CSF range is the basis of the 2015 IPCC AR5. (This
corresponds to c values (Eqn. (1)) of 2.2e6.5  C (average 4.33  C).)
Unlike the potency of water vapor and the ever-rising [CO2], the
impact of ozone and other greenhouse gases (like methane and
nitrous oxide) is rather limited due to their low concentrations
(<1 ppm). AGW has been implicated in both regional/global climate
changes and disruption. Increasing AGW may lead to more
dangerous and unpredictable impacts on global climate if the
earth's average surface temperature rises beyond 15  C. In recent
years, anecdotally, AGW has been implicated in an increasing
number of disruptive weather events around the world (e.g.,
droughts, floods, and cyclonic storms) with unusually longer
summers/shorter winters. In an interesting note, the increasing
global warming pattern seems to have paused for the period
2000e2014 despite the increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions
during that period (CDIAC, 2015).
The GTA for the period 1880e2014 (GTA-NOAA, 2016) can be
modeled by the following relationship:
 . 
GTA ¼ a*cosðu*ðy  1880Þ þ fÞ þ c*ln ½CO2 y ½CO2 1958
þ d*ðy  1958Þ þ e
(2)
Where
[CO2]1958 is the CO2 concentration (ppm) in a given datum year
CO2]y is the CO2 concentration (ppm) in a given year (y)
The CO2 CSF (c) and all other factors in Eqn. (2) were varied to
obtain the best-fit values to NOAA GTA data (GTA-NOAA, 2016) by
visual inspection (Fig. 1(b)). The present modelled GTA
(1880e2014) is in reasonable agreement with the NOAA GTA data
(Fig. 1(b)). The NOAA GTA data set consists of monthly average
temperature anomalies on a 5  5 grid across land and ocean
surfaces. The present work a and c values agree well with the

Please cite this article in press as: Szulejko, J.E., et al., Global warming projections to 2100 using simple CO2 greenhouse gas modeling and
comments on CO2 climate sensitivity factor, Atmospheric Pollution Research (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2016.08.002
4 J.E. Szulejko et al. / Atmospheric Pollution Research xxx (2016) 1e5
literature (Table 1) (Callendar, 1938; Loehle and Scafetta, 2011). On
the other hand, the estimated CSF is significantly smaller than that
of the IPCC AR5 c value (4.33  C). A general climate modeling (GCM)
simulation by Schneider et al. (1999) yielded tropospheric CO2
climate sensitivity c factors of 1.80, 2.27, and 2.55  C at atmospheric
pressures of 750, 450, and 230 mb, respectively. Note that the 1938
Callendar climate sensitivity factor of 2.52 C corresponds to 283 K,
a water vapor pressure of 1000 Pa (~100% RH), and a [CO2] range of
100e600 ppm. In conclusion, the IPCC AR5 CO2 climate sensitivity
factor of 4.33  C needs to be revised downward. The u ¼ 2p/
58 rad y1 may be astronomical in origin corresponding to the
Jupiter and Saturn conjunction as proposed by Scafetta (2013)
Mainstream GCM cannot explain the pause in the global warming
since ca 2000 (e.g., IPCC AR5) (IPCC, 2016).
For the period 1880 to 2014, the GTA increased by 0.82  C of
which 0.16, 0.81, and 0.17  C were ascribed to the 58 year cycle, D
[CO2], and linear trend, respectively, for a climate sensitivity factor
of 2.52. The corresponding values ascribed for a climate sensitivity
factor of 4.28 are 0.16, 1.37, and 0.17  C, respectively. The observed
GTA change of 0.82  C should be compared to the present work
calculated GTA (Eqn (2)) values of 0.81 and 1.38  C for CSF of 2.52
and 4.28  C, respectively. The difference between the observed GTA
(0.82  C) and the calculated GTA (1.38  C, CSF 4.28  C) of 0.56  C
implies that the presence of an unknown heat sink may partly
cancel out the effect of warming due to D[CO2]. On the other hand,
for a CSF of 2.52  C, no heat sink is evident or needed. It would
appear that the IPCC does not report hind-cast GTA from say 2014 to
1880 but only forecast GTA from 2014 to 2100 for various CSFs. In
summary, a CSF of 2.52  C should better describe the observed GTA
increase (1880e2014). It is then argued that increasing atmospheric
CO2 levels could be only responsible for about 50% of the observed
warming in the present warming period (Lim et al., 2014; Scafetta,
2013). Hence, the worst-case IPCC “Thermageddon” scenarios
when GTA exceeds 3  C by 2100 is unrealistic. A more realistic 2100
GTA would be 1.8  C (Fig. 1(b)).
Fig. 1(b) depicts GTA projections for three post 2014 scenarios
where [CO2] changes at a rate of 0.5, 0.0, and 0.5% per annum. In
the period 1958 to 2013, increases were observed in anthropogenic
CO2 emissions (2330e9861 Mt C y1) (CDIAC, 2015), GTA
(0.12e0.62  C) (GTA-NOAA, 2016) and [CO2] at the Mauna Loa
Observatory (315.2e396.5 ppm) (NOAA-ESRL, 2016). For the period
2000e2014, atmospheric [CO2] increased at rate of
0.54 ± 0.11%.y1; hence, 0.5% was chosen for trend-3 in Fig. 1(a) and
(b) to represent a “business as usual” scenario. The other two trends
1 and 2 of 0.5 and 0.0%.y1, respectively, represent implausible
best-case scenarios if serious controls on anthropogenic CO2
emissions could be globally enacted. Trend-1 (0.5%.y1) will
reduce [CO2] to near pre-industrial level by 2100. The corre-
sponding Trend-1 GTA would decrease from 0.66  C (2014)
to 0.30  C (2100), and the implications on agricultural produc-
tivity would be enormous.
2.4. Total solar irradiance decrease e coming Little Ice Age?
Based on the steady total solar irradiance (TSI) in the last 100
years (SORCE, 2015), mainstream climate scientists (and activists)
predict no global cooling due to reduced TSI in the foreseeable
future. On the other hand, a solar grand minimum is predicted
leading to a Little Ice Age starting in ca 2020, and GTA was
decreased to 0.6  C by 2100 from 0.6  C in 2013 (in spite of
increasing [CO2]) based on TSI historical trends and Milankovich
astronomical cycles (Abdussamatov, 2013). In the last few years,
global warming has also been observed on other solar system
bodies (e.g., Mars, Jupiter, and Pluto), suggesting that the Sun may
be the main force for global warming on Earth (Abdussamatov,
Please cite this article in press as: Szulejko, J.E., et al., Global warming projections to 2100 using simple CO2 greenhouse gas modeling and
comments on CO2 climate sensitivity factor, Atmospheric Pollution Research (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2016.08.002
2013). “A leaked draft of the IPCC latest report, AR5, admits that the
case for man-made global warming is looking weaker by the day and
the Sun plays a much more significant role in “climate change” than
the “scientific consensus” has previously been prepared to concede”
(Abdussamatov, 2013).
3. Concluding remarks
The physics of the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases has been studied since ca. 1900; such
theory has generally been well understood and accepted by most
scientists (IPCC). A few contrarians have suggested alternative
scenarios to explain global warming (or global climate change) in
the absence of the CO2 greenhouse gas effect (e.g., Kramm and
Dlugi, 2011; Monckton et al., 2015) and strongly challenged on
flawed modelling assumptions, (e.g., Richardson et al., 2015). It is
beyond scope to examine the contrarian papers in depth. It is
nonetheless very hard to say e who is right? Or whether ongoing
speculation about the climate change issue is right or wrong? On
other hand, there is no doubt that global warming is at its highest
levels in 2015 (since 18th century) which is probably due to rapidly
increasing greenhouse gas emissions and general environmental
pollution. Many poor countries are however suffering from the
most negative impact of global warming as aforementioned. In this
regard, the world community is advised to reduce global warming
by achieving large-scale reforestation, better energy usage effi-
ciency, capturing CO2 to make useful products (Cressey, 2015; Lim,
2015), economical carbon capture and storage (Shakerian et al.,
2015), and utilization of cheap(er) and truly cleaner energy sour-
ces to “save the planet”. Environmentalists are anxious for taking
effective and timely actions, while the political community yet
ranks ever increasing economic development much higher than
conserving diminishing finite resources. Finite fossil fuel proved
reserves are likely to be depleted well before 2100, if present eco-
nomic trends continued unabated, e.g, if the real growth in the
global gross domestic product (GDP) continues at 3% per year.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by a National Research Foundation of
Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, and
Technology (MEST) (No. 2006e0093848).
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