Professional Documents
Culture Documents
247806
247806
0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
270
53
330
693
169
234
1,748
71
5,717
-2,761
67
267
303
261
5,673
325
783
713
1
368
2,190
550
442
0
3,182
40
2,402
48
2,491
5,673
2008
10,383
-4,645
5,738
-3,745
-330
-549
-456
-267
114
504
9
-53
460
-144
316
316
-6
309
2008
316
605
75
-117
-9
-1
-11
-
-64
72
7
325
60
1,259
-985
24
-126
-1,087
66,299
-66,297
-1
112
15
-311
-2
-185
1
-11
281
270
2008
35.0%
31.3%
0
234
-20
5
549
0
736
0.43
0.00
14.17
0
0
0
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 7.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
DATA CHECKS
Assets - Liabilities - Equities -0.479 -0.199 0.225 -0.148 -0.019
Net Income (computed) - Net Income (reported) -0.349 0.165 -0.156 0.045 -0.085
Cash Changes 0 -0.156 0.045 -0.085
In the computations below, a #DIV/0! message indicates that a ratio denominator is zero.
PROFITABILITY FACTORS:
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
OPERATING PERFORMANCE:
Gross Profit / Revenues 58.6% 59.1% 59.2% 57.5%
Operating Profit / Revenues 11.5% 12.3% 11.5% 11.2%
Net Income / Revenues 7.3% 7.8% 7.2% 7.1%
Comprehensive Income / Revenues 7.6% 7.6% 7.5% 7.3%
GROWTH:
Revenue Growth 29.9% 20.3% 22.3% 20.9%
Net Income Growth 46.1% 27.3% 14.2% 19.2%
Persistent Net Income Growth 46.1% 27.3% 17.6% 15.7%
OPERATING CONTROL:
Gross Profit Control Index 99.8% 100.8% 100.1% 97.2%
Operating Profit Contol Index 110.6% 107.0% 93.7% 97.5%
Profit Margin Decomposition:
Gross Profit Margin 58.6% 59.1% 59.2% 57.5%
Operating Profit Index 19.5% 20.7% 19.4% 19.5%
Leverage Index 102.3% 102.0% 101.4% 100.2%
Tax Index 62.5% 62.1% 62.3% 63.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.3% 7.8% 7.2% 7.1%
Comprehensive Income Performance:
Comprehensive Income Index 103.9% 98.3% 102.9% 102.6%
Comprehensive Income Margin 7.6% 7.6% 7.5% 7.3%
RISK FACTORS:
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
LIQUIDITY:
Current Ratio 1.81 0.99 0.79 0.79
Quick Ratio 1.06 0.41 0.35 0.34
Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities 116.6% 93.6% 71.6% 65.1%
ASSET TURNOVER:
Accounts Receivable Turnover na 5.9 5.8 5.5 Uses specialty revenues only.
Days Receivables Held na 62 63 66
Inventory Turnover 5.7 5.4 5.4 6.0
Days Inventory Held 64 68 68 61
Accounts Payable Turnover 12.3 13.0 11.6 11.1
Days Payables Held 30 28 31 33
Net Working Capital Days na 102 99 94
Revenues / Average Net Fixed Assets 3.61 3.75 3.77 3.63
Cash Turnover 30.6 40.0 32.0 31.7
Days Sales Held in Cash 11.9 9.1 11.4 11.5
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 27.1% 40.5% 49.7% 57.3%
Total Liabilities / Shareholders' Equity 37.1% 68.1% 98.7% 134.0%
LT Debt / LT Capital 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 19.4%
LT Debt / Shareholders' Equity 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 24.1%
Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities 101.0% 78.9% 62.5% 50.6%
Interest Coverage Ratio (reported amounts) 1552.6 613.5 106.8 28.7
Interest Coverage ratio (recurring amounts) 1552.6 613.5 108.9 28.7
RISK FACTORS:
Bankruptcy Predictors:
Altman Z Score 15.22 11.48 9.95 6.72 4.59
Bankruptcy Probability 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
Earnings Manipulation Predictors:
Beneish Earnings Manipulation Score -2.82 -2.90 -2.89 -2.84 -3.06
Earnings Manipulation Probability 0.24% 0.19% 0.19% 0.23% 0.11%
Other Comprehensive Income Items -34.2% -155.3% -297.6% 5.5% -135.8% -177.1%
Comprehensive Income 39.8% 20.5% 19.5% 18.8% -55.2% 1.4%
Assets:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 4.3% 4.9% 7.1% 5.3% 4.8%
Marketable Securities 15.0% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9% 0.9%
Accounts Receivable - Net 4.1% 5.4% 5.1% 5.4% 5.8%
Inventories 12.5% 15.5% 14.4% 12.9% 12.2%
Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 2.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0%
Deferred Tax Assets - Current 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 4.1%
Other Current Assets (1) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Current Assets (2) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Current Assets 39.9% 34.4% 34.5% 31.7% 30.8%
Long Term Investments 4.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.4% 1.3%
Property, Plant & Equipment - at cost 85.0% 98.7% 96.1% 99.3% 100.8%
<Accumulated Depreciation> -39.2% -46.3% -44.5% -45.2% -48.7%
Amortizable Intangible Assets (net) 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.2%
Goodwill and Nonamortizable Intangibles 2.0% 2.6% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7%
Deferred Tax Assets - Noncurrent 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Equity and Other Investments 5.0% 5.7% 4.9% 4.8% 5.3%
Other Non-Current Assets (2) 2.5% 2.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.6%
Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Common Stock + Paid in Capital -0.2% -86.9% -69.2% 0.0% -0.1% -47.4%
Retained Earnings <Deficit> 35.1% 34.2% 10.9% 1.8% 9.7% 17.6%
Accum. Other Comprehensive Income <Loss> 105.2% -28.5% 78.2% 46.5% -11.4% 27.7%
Other Equity Adjustments #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
<Treasury Stock> #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Common Shareholders' Equity 18.6% -15.4% 6.6% 2.5% 9.1% 3.6%
Total Liabilities and Equities 24.0% 3.8% 26.0% 20.7% 6.2% 15.7%
RETURN ON ASSETS ANALYSIS (excluding the effects of non-recurring items)
RETURN ON COMMON SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ANALYSIS (excluding the effects of non-recurring items)
Actuals Forecasts
Year 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenues 7,787 9,411 10,383 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 20.9% 10.3% See Forecast Development worksheet for details.
<Cost of Sales and Occupancy> -3,179 -3,999 -4,645 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -40.8% -42.5% -44.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 25.8% 16.2% Explain assumptions.
Gross Profit 4,608 5,412 5,738 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 59.2% 57.5% 55.3% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 17.5% 6.0% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
<Store Operating Expenses> -2,688 -3,216 -3,745 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -34.5% -34.2% -36.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 19.6% 16.5% Explain assumptions.
<Other Operating Expenses> -254 -294 -330 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -3.3% -3.1% -3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 16.0% 12.2% Explain assumptions.
<Depreciation and Amortization> -387 -467 -549 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -5.0% -5.0% -5.3%
rate of change 20.7% 17.6% See depreciation schedule in Forecast Development.
<General and Administrative Expenses> -479 -489 -456 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -6.2% -5.2% -4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 2.0% -6.8% Explain assumptions.
<Restructuring Charges> 0 0 -267 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% -2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Income from equity investees 94 108 114 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 15.0% 5.2% Explain assumptions.
Other Operating Income (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Non-Recurring Operating Gains 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
<Non-Recurring Operating Losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Operating Profit 894 1,054 504 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 11.5% 11.2% 4.9% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 17.9% -52.2% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Interest Income 21 41 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 96.1% -77.8% Interest rate earned on average balance in cash, ST and LT securities.
<Interest Expense> -8 -38 -53 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -0.1% -0.4% -0.5% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
rate of change 354.8% 39.8% Interest rate on average balance in long-term debt.
Income <Loss> from Equity Affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Other Income or Gains 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
<Other Expenses or Losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Income before Tax 906 1,056 460 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 11.6% 11.2% 4.4% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 16.6% -56.5% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
<Income Tax Expense> -325 -384 -144 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -4.2% -4.1% -1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change 18.2% -62.5% Effective income tax rate assumptions.
<Minority Interest in Earnings> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Income <Loss> from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Extraordinary Gains <Losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Changes in Acctg. Principles -17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change -100.0% #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Net Income (computed) 564 673 316 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 7.2% 7.1% 3.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 19.2% -53.1% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Other Comprehensive Income Items 16 17 -6 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.2% 0.2% -0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5.5% -135.8% Explain assumptions
Comprehensive Income 581 690 309 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 7.5% 7.3% 3.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 18.8% -55.2% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
FSAP OUTPUT: FINANCIAL STATEMENT FORECASTS
Analyst Name: Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw
Company Name: Starbucks
Actuals Forecasts
2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
BALANCE SHEET
ASSETS:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 313 281 270 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 7.1% 5.3% 4.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change -10.0% -4.1% Explain assumptions
Marketable Securities 141 157 53 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 3.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 11.6% -66.7% Explain assumptions
Accounts Receivable - Net 224 288 330 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 5.1% 5.4% 5.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 28.4% 14.4% Explain assumptions
Inventories 636 692 693 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 14.4% 12.9% 12.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 8.7% 0.2% Explain assumptions
Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 127 149 169 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 17.2% 13.7% Explain assumptions
Deferred Tax Assets - Current 89 129 234 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 2.0% 2.4% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 45.8% 80.9% Explain assumptions
Other Current Assets (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Other Current Assets (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Current Assets 1,530 1,696 1,748 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 34.5% 31.7% 30.8% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 10.9% 3.0% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Long Term Investments 6 21 71 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 261.8% 239.6% Explain assumptions
Property, Plant & Equipment - at cost 4,258 5,307 5,717 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 96.1% 99.3% 100.8%
rate of change 24.6% 7.7% PP&E assumptions - see schedule in forecast development
<Accumulated Depreciation> -1,970 -2,416 -2,761 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -44.5% -45.2% -48.7%
rate of change 22.7% 14.3% See depreciation schedule in forecast development worksheet.
Amortizable Intangible Assets (net) 38 42 67 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 10.8% 58.4% Explain assumptions
Goodwill and Nonamortizable Intangibles 161 216 267 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 33.5% 23.6% Explain assumptions
Deferred Tax Assets - Noncurrent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Equity and Other Investments 219 259 303 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 4.9% 4.8% 5.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 18.1% 16.9% Explain assumptions
Other Non-Current Assets (2) 187 219 261 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 4.2% 4.1% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 17.4% 19.0% Explain assumptions
Total Assets 4,429 5,344 5,673 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 20.7% 6.2% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
LIABILITIES:
Accounts Payable - Trade 341 391 325 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 7.7% 7.3% 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 14.6% -16.9% Explain assumptions
Current Accrued Liabilities 662 757 783 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 14.9% 14.2% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 14.3% 3.4% Explain assumptions
Notes Payable and Short Term Debt 700 710 713 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 15.8% 13.3% 12.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 1.5% 0.4% Explain assumptions
Current Maturities of Long Term Debt 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 1.7% -9.7% Explain assumptions
Deferred Tax Liabilities - Current 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Income Taxes Payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Deferred Revenue 232 297 368 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 5.2% 5.6% 6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 28.0% 24.1% Explain assumptions
Other Current Liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Current Liabilities 1,936 2,156 2,190 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 43.7% 40.3% 38.6% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 11.4% 1.6% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Long Term Debt 2 550 550 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 10.3% 9.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 27996.1% -0.1% Explain assumptions
Long Term Accrued Liabilities 263 354 442 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 5.9% 6.6% 7.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 34.6% 24.9% Explain assumptions
Deferred Tax Liabilities - Noncurrent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Other Non-Current Liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Other Non-Current Liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Total Liabilities 2,201 3,060 3,182 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 49.7% 57.3% 56.1% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
rate of change 39.0% 4.0% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Minority interest assumptions
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Preferred stock assumptions
Actuals Forecasts
IMPLIED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
Actuals Forecasts
2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
FORECAST VALIDITY CHECK DATA:
GROWTH
Revenue Growth Rates: 22.3% 20.9% 10.3% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Net Income Growth Rates: 14.2% 19.2% -53.1% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total Asset Growth Rates 26.0% 20.7% 6.2% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
ASSET TURNOVER:
Revenues / Avg. Accounts Receivable 5.8 5.5 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
COGS / Average Inventory 5.4 6.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Revenues / Average Fixed Assets 3.8 3.6 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
LIQUIDITY:
Current Ratio 0.8 0.8 0.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Quick Ratio 0.4 0.3 0.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 49.7% 57.3% 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total Liabilities / Total Equity 98.7% 134.0% 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Interest Coverage Ratio 106.8 28.7 0.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 7.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
Actuals Forecasts
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Sales by Segment and Type: Starbucks: Sales Forecasts by Segment and Type
2005 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Retail
U.S. 4,539.5 5,495.2 6,560.9 6,997.7 7,219.6 7,219.6 7,219.6 7,219.6 7,219.6
International 852.5 1,087.9 1,437.4 1,774.2 1,902.5 1,902.5 1,902.5 1,902.5 1,902.5
Specialty
U.S. Licensed 278.0 369.2 439.2 504.2 531.1 531.1 531.1 531.1 531.1
Int'l. Licensed 145.7 186.1 220.8 274.8 299.6 299.6 299.6 299.6 299.6
Foodservice & CPG 553.6 648.6 753.2 832.1 832.1 832.1 832.1 832.1 832.1
Net Revenues 6,369.3 7,786.9 9,411.5 10,383.0 10,785.0 10,785.0 10,785.0 10,785.0 10,785.0
Sales per Average Store-Year by Segment and Type: Expectations for comparable store sales growth rates by type:
2005 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Retail
U.S. 0.981 1.032 1.048 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997
growth 5.2% 1.5% -4.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0.6%
International 0.782 0.825 0.914 0.961 0.961 0.961 0.961 0.961 0.961
growth 5.5% 10.7% 5.2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7.1%
Specialty
U.S. Licensed - 0.132 0.124 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123
growth -5.6% -1.4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Int'l. Licensed - 0.098 0.093 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096
growth -4.6% 2.3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Foodservice & CPG 553.6 648.6 753.2 832.1 832.1 832.1 832.1 832.1 832.1
growth 17.2% 16.1% 10.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14.5%
Starbucks: Store Operating Data: Forecasts: Numbers of Stores
2005 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Percentage change in comparable store sales:
U.S. 9% 7% 4% -5%
International 6% 8% 7% 2%
Consolidated 8% 7% 5% -3%
New stores opened during the year: Expectations for net new stores to be opened each year:
openings: 0 0 0 0 0
U.S. (closings): 0 0 0 0 0
Company-operated: 580 810 1,065 445 0 0 0 0 0
International
openings: 0 0 0 0 0
(closings): 0 0 0 0 0
Company-operated: 166 233 277 236 0 0 0 0 0
Stores open at year end: Implied Expectations for Total Stores to be Open:
U.S.
Company-operated: 4,918 5,728 6,793 7,238 7,238 7,238 7,238 7,238 7,238
Licensed: 2,435 3,168 3,891 4,329 4,329 4,329 4,329 4,329 4,329
International
Company-operated: 1,202 1,435 1,712 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979
Licensed: 1,686 2,109 2,615 3,134 3,134 3,134 3,134 3,134 3,134
Totals
Company-operated: 6,120 7,163 8,505 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217
Licensed: 4,121 5,277 6,506 7,463 7,463 7,463 7,463 7,463 7,463
Total stores open: 10,241 12,440 15,011 16,680 16,680 16,680 16,680 16,680 16,680
Implied store growth rate forecasts:
Store growth rates: 19.5% 21.5% 20.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total CAPEX $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Forecasts:
PP&E at cost: 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Beg. balance at cost: 5,717 5,717 5,717 5,717 5,717
Add: CAPEX forecasts from above: 0 0 0 0 0
End balance at cost: 3,468 4,258 5,307 5,717 5,717 5,717 5,717 5,717 5,717
Accumulated Depreciation:
Beg. Balance: -2,761 -3,331 -3,900 -4,470 -5,040
Subtract: Depreciation expense forecasts from below: -570 -570 -570 -570 -570
End Balance: -1,626 -1,970 -2,416 -2,761 -3,331 -3,900 -4,470 -5,040 -5,610
PP&E - net 1,842 2,288 2,890 2,956 2,387 1,817 1,247 677 108
Forecast Development:
This Forecast Development spreadsheet provides work space in which the analyst can:
- build detailed sales revenue forecasts
- build forecasts of capital expenditures, property, plant and equipment, depreciation expense, and accumulated depreciation.
- build detailed forecasts of other financial statement amounts.
It is not necessary to use this spreadsheet to build financial statement forecasts in the FSAP Forecasts
spreadsheet. If you use this spreadsheet to build more detailed forecasts, the you will need to link these
forecast amounts to the appropriate cells in the financial statements in the FSAP Forecasts spreadsheet.
This sales revenue forecast development schedule was developed specifically for PepsiCo. FSAP users who wish to develop detailed sales forecasts of other firms should adapt this schedule as necessary to incorporate the othe
ales figures here simply assume no growth in
or same store sales. User must enter forecasts for
mounts in schedules below.
The Capital Expenditures schedule permits the FSAP user to build detailed forecasts of future capital expenditures as a percent of future revenues, gross PP&E or any other reasonable basis for these forecast assumptions.
The Property, Plant & Equipment and Depreciation schedule automatically computes for the FSAP detailed forecasts of future PP&E based on exisitng PP&E plus projected future capital expenditures. The Depreciation expense
FSAP automatically links the projected amounts for gross PP&E, accumulated depreciation, depreciation expense, and capital expenditures into the financial statements in the Forecasts worksheet.
This computation shows depreciation expense based on the exisiting depreciable PP&E at the start of the forecast period. The computation assumes straight line depreciation methods, zero salvage value, and the estimated usef
This computation shows the amount of gross PP&E still to be depreciated. Once this amount falls to zero, depreciation is complete.The FSAP user should be sure that these amounts are not negative.
FSAP automatically computes a new depreciation schedule for each year's capital expenditures, which are included in PP&E. These computations assume straight line depreciation methods and zero salvage value. The computa
FSAP automatically estimates the estimated useful life for depreciation purposes by dividing the average amount of gross depreciable PP&E by depreciation expense. This estimate assume straight line depreciation and zero sal
ule as necessary to incorporate the other firms' various soruces of revenue.
sis for these forecast assumptions.
penditures. The Depreciation expense schedule automatically computes future depreciation expense based on exisitng depreciable PP&E future capital expenditures. The expected useful life for depreciation purposes is computed below.
s and zero salvage value. The computations use the extimated useful life as computed below.
e straight line depreciation and zero salvage value.
on purposes is computed below.
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 7.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition FSAP User Guides:
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
The FSAP User Guides appear in column M to the right. A Comment on Entering Valuatio
The FSAP user must enter valuation
DATA CHECKS - Estimated Value per Share
Dividend Based Valuation $ 3.32 FSAP automatically references the
Free Cash Flow Valuation $ 3.39 FSAP automatically references the
Residual Income Valuation $ 3.39 FSAP automatically references the
Residual Income Market-to-Book Valuation #DIV/0! FSAP automatically references the
Free Cash Flow for All Debt and Equity Valuation #DIV/0! FSAP automatically references the
Check: All Estimated Value per Share amounts should be the same, possibly with an exception to Free Cash Flow for All Debt and Equity. See additional comments in cell M266.
Long-run growth assumption used in forecasts 3.0% Long Run Growth Parameters:
Long-run growth assumption used in valuation. 3.0% Enter the long run growth rate assum
(Both long-run growth assumptions should be the same.)
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 2,402.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP references implied dividends
Less: Common Stock Issues 40.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP references the change in com
Plus: Common Stock Repurchases 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP reference the change in treas
Dividends to Common Equity 2,442.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total dividends to common equity s
Present Value Factors 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Present value factors based on the e
PV Net Dividends 2,442.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sum of PV Net Dividends 2,442.5 The sum of the present value of net
PV of Continuing Value 0.0 The present value of continuing val
Total 2,442.5
Adjust to midyear discounting 1.0000 This adjustment corrects for over-d
Total PV Dividends 2,442.5
Shares Outstanding 735.5
Estimated Value per Share $ 3.32 The estimated value per share.
Net Cash Flow from Operations -3,253.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP references net cash flows fro
Decrease (Increase) in Cash Required for Operations 269.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 The analyst should adjust free cash
Net Cash Flow from Investing 6,738.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP references net cash flows fro
Net CFs from Debt Financing -1,263.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP references net cash flows fro
Net CFs into Financial Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 This row enables the analyst to adju
Net CFs - Pref. Stock and Minority Int. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP references net cash flows fro
Free Cash Flow for Common Equity 2,490.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Present Value Factors 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Present value factors based on the e
PV Free Cash Flows 2,490.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sum of PV Free Cash Flows 2,490.9 The sum of the present value of free
PV of Continuing Value 0.0 The present value of continuing free
Total 2,490.9
Adjust to midyear discounting 1.0000 This adjustment corrects for over-d
Total PV Free Cash Flows to Equity 2,490.9
Shares Outstanding 735.5
Estimated Value per Share $ 3.39 The estimated value per share.
Required Earnings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP computes required earnings a
Residual Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Residual income is the difference b
Present Value Factors 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Present value factors based on the e
PV Residual Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sum of PV Residual Income 0.0 The sum of the present value of resi
PV of Continuing Value 0.0 The present value of continuing res
Total 0.0
Add: Beginning Book Value of Equity 2,490.9
PV of Equity 2,490.9
Adjust to midyear discounting 1.000 This adjustment corrects for over-d
Total PV of Equity 2,490.9
Shares Outstanding 735.5
Estimated Value per Share $ 3.39 The estimated value per share.
Implied ROCE 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! FSAP computes the implied ROCE
Residual ROCE 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! FSAP computes the residual ROCE
Cumulative growth factor in common equity as of t-1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% FSAP computes the cumulative gro
Residual ROCE times cumulative growth 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! The product of residual ROCE and
Present Value Factors 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Present value factors based on the e
PV Residual ROCE times growth 0.000 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sum of PV Residual ROCE times growth #DIV/0! The sum of the present value of resi
PV of Continuing Value #DIV/0! The present value of residual ROCE
Total PV Residual ROCE #DIV/0!
Add one for book value of equity at t-1 1.0
Sum #DIV/0!
Adjust to mid-year discounting 1.000 This adjustment corrects for over-d
Implied Market-to-Book Ratio #DIV/0! The implied market-to-book value r
Times Beginning Book Value of Equity 2,490.9
Total PV of Equity #DIV/0!
Shares Outstanding 735.5
Estimated Value per Share #DIV/0! The estimated value per share.
Sensitivity analysis for the market-to-book approach should be identical to that of the residual income approach.