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Sai Dore

Professor Slye

Eng 1201

3/21/21

How do advances in automation affect the American middle class?

Automation is becoming a huge part of everyone’s lives and will continue to shape the

landscape of jobs in the future. The middle class will presumably become one of the most

affected groups of people by advances in automation, but there are many different theories about

how much they will be affected and whether it will be a positive or negative transformation.

How automation has affected job security in the past may be a good indicator of what’s

coming ahead. During the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s, many workers were replaced by

automation, but many were eventually able to perform different tasks and economies boomed,

even if workers’ lives weren’t necessarily getting better. The issue came to a head again in the

1960s, with many experts worrying that automation may outpace the creation of new jobs, even

though a committee formed by President Lyndon Johnson declared automation was no threat

(Autor 3-4). In the 21st century, more than 5 million US workers have lost factory jobs, even

though manufacturing output has been growing (Lehmacher), and digitization has accelerated,

leaving many experts concerned about whether ‘ordinary’ workers will be left behind (Autor 4). 

Most experts either believe that middle class workers will be positively impacted by

technological changes through lifestyle and societal improvements and the procurement of

specialized jobs, or negatively impacted by the wiping away of their jobs and much more, but

there are many differing ideas about how this will take shape. Some, like Professor David Autor,

think that automation doesn’t have much of an effect on aggregate employment. He believes that
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more jobs will be created through automation because there will be people with specialized skills

required to help produce the inputs that complement automation (6). 

Economist Eduardo Yeyati agrees with Autor that automation may lead to a slight growth

in employment because of a “positive cross-industry effect” (Yeyati 2). But he argues that it will

lead to a polarization of the workforce with more high-skilled and low-skilled workers at the

expense of middle-skilled workers. This is due to automation taking over routine tasks that are

mainly performed by blue-collar workers and some white-collar workers (2-3). Yeyati uses

studies conducted for the last 30 years that calculate the change of the share in total employment

based on wages and is shaped like a “U” (3). This supports the concept of polarization that

Yeyati supports as middle class workers faced a declining share of employment. Autor bases his

claims on the O-Ring model, which maintains that an improvement in one step of production will

increase the value of the others. Autor compares this to automation, which he believes will

increase the value of the other steps. Each works’ purpose differs, as Yeyati aims to show how

middle class workers may be negatively affected while Autor aims to look at the bright side of

automation, and they both cite reliable studies to prove their points.

Others, like physicist Stephen Hawking, point to the millions of jobs lost in

manufacturing and hypothesize that job destruction will continue on to the middle class

(Hawking). He believes economic inequality will worsen because the advent of the internet and

other platforms allow people to make huge amounts of money while employing very few people.

Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang brought this issue to the forefront of national

politics, as he and many others believe that the middle-class is going to face millions of job

losses and disenfranchisement (Ford). Additionally, the percentage of American men ages 25-54

that are not working or looking for a job may more than double, and experts see the process of
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“job de-skilling” starting to take shape (Ford). The purpose of Hawking and Ford’s articles is to

provide a bleak picture of the future if technology continues to develop and take away jobs, and

they use past data to support their hypotheses.

The effects of automation may well go beyond job loss. Workers at the receiving end of

technological advancements face psychological, economic, and social hardship, and communities

centered around a single industry have collapsed (Fitzpayne). And with less investment in

training, a weaker social safety net, and less access to workplace benefits, middle class workers

are left vulnerable and without structure if they lose their jobs. But there are also positive effects

of automation, including the development of mass production, greater productivity, and the

creation of new industries (Fitzpayne). The overall purpose of Fitzpayne’s article is to inform

readers about the possible ill-effects of automation and to show that government policies, the

response from institutions, and how we as a collective community respond can affect the well-

being of the middle class and workers in general.

The main misconception with this topic is that automation will wipe out much of the

middle class and robots will replace us. While for some professions, like waiters, are at a high

risk of that, most white-collar workers are safe, as they possess skilled jobs that will be difficult

to be replaced. The main concern is with blue-collar workers and other members of the middle

class that work “unskilled” jobs. 

The main two answers to this research question is that the middle class will either be

affected positively or negatively by automation. But how exactly they will be affected requires

much more research into the effects of automation, including job loss, benefits from the

government, psychological effects, how the economy reacts, and more. This requires reviews of

studies, analysis of past effects of automation, and predictions from experts in the field.
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Works Cited

Autor, David H. “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace

Automation.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 29586, no.3, pp.3-30,

https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563

Fitzpayne, Alastair, et al. “Automation and a Changing Economy: The Case for Action.” The

Aspen Institute, 2 Apr. 2019, www.aspeninstitute.org/publications/automation-and-a-

changing-economy-the-case-for-action/#:~:text=However%2C%20automation%20can

%20also%20have,automated%20have%20struggled%20to%20recover. 

Ford, Martin. “AI and Automation Will Disrupt Our World - But Only Andrew Yang Is Warning

About It.” TheHill, The Hill, 10 Nov. 2019, thehill.com/opinion/technology/469750-ai-

and-automation-will-disrupt-our-world-but-only-andrew-yang-is-warning. 

Hawking, Stephen. “This Is the Most Dangerous Time for Our Planet | Stephen Hawking.” The

Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 1 Dec. 2016,

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/01/stephen-hawking-dangerous-time-

planet-inequality. 

Lehmacher, Wolfgang. “Don't Blame China For Taking U.S. Jobs.” Fortune, Fortune, 8 Nov.

2016, fortune.com/2016/11/08/china-automation-jobs/. 

Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, and Luca Sartorio. “Technology and the Future of Work: Why Do We

Care?” Latin America Policy Journal, vol. 7, Spring 2018, pp. 38–46. EBSCOhost,

search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=131931357&site=eds-live.
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