Preface

The authors thought that the contents about MCM in 3 rd edition should be updated.

Otherwise, the logic and sequence based on 2-day course the authors taught are no long corresponded to the
presentation in this book.

Therefore, 4th edition is produced.

In 4th edition, MCM is preferred method in uncertainty propagation.

Concepts of general uncertainty analysis and detailed uncertainty analysis are clearly shown so that a spreadsheet
could also be used to apply MCM, even in a complex uncertainty propagation situation.

Comprehensive examples are presented and covered random errors and systematic errors.

The thing that sets this book apart is the wide background of author’s experiences during 100 years of engineering
careers, with expertise in wide range of fields like heat transfer, fluid mechanics, propulsion, etc., with work from
laboratory scale to full scale project, with participating in professional societies’ committee developing experimental
uncertainty and validation standard.

Acknowledgement

Chapter I:

Experimentation involves a bunch of phases and steps, not only taking and analyzing data.

Ok, I agree with your point of view that experimentation consists of many steps.

1.1 Experimentation

1.1.1Why Is Experimentation Necessary?

Someone might argue that with sophisticated analytical solution, increasing knowledge of numerical solution,
awesome computer power, is there any longer need for experimentation?

Simple answer: Experimental results are necessary in many steps of analytical and numerical approach (beginning
step or solution step). Moreover, in many systems, the geometry, boundary conditions and physical phenomena is so
complex to formulate an analytical/numerical model. In these cases, experimentation is essential to define the behavior
of systems.

From a more comprehensive view:

In dictionary: Science = Observation=>Study =>Experimentation, carried in order to obtain systematized knowledge,

to determine the nature or principle of what is being studied.
Scientific method = systematic attempt to construct theories that correlate wide groups of observed facts and are
capable of predicting the results of future observations. Such theories are tested by controlled experimentation and are
accepted only as long as they are consistent with all observed facts.

Science = Observation => Study => Experimentation.

1.1.2 Degree of Goodness and Uncertainty Analysis

In experimental measurement (or simulation), noise => Error

To see how good the experimental results (simulation results) is or to compare (to validation) these results, the degree
of goodness should be considered.

To describe the degree of goodness of measurement, concept of uncertainty (u) is used.

Uncertainty (u) characterizes the range containing error (different between measure value and true value).

Uncertainty analysis is a powerful tool (especially in planning and designing steps) that helps save a lot of time, money
and embarrassment.

1.1.3 Experimentation and Validation of Simulations

In complex system, expensive experiments are replaces by cheaper simulations.

But “how good” the simulation results are. V & V are needed.

Verification: how well the equations are solved.

Validation: how well the equations represent the real world.

1.2 Experimental Approach

1.2.1 Questions to Be Considered

Fourteen questions What-Why-When-Where-How

1.2.2 Phases of Experimental Program

Planning => Designing => Constructing => Debugging =>Executing => Data Analyzing => Reporting Results

The use of uncertainty analysis and related techniques will help ensure a maximum return for time, money and effort
invested.

1.3 Basic Concepts and Definitions

Data Reduction Equation (DRE) is used to combine multiple measured variables into a result.

The error and uncertainty from each variable propagates through DRE to produce error and uncertainty in the result.

Two current methods to model propagation: Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and classic Taylor Series Method (TSM)
with higher order terms neglected (less “exact”).

1.3.1 Errors and Uncertainties

Error = Measure Value – True Value.

Uncertainty => U = range that Error falls.

Elemental Error = Systematic Error (Invariant Error) + Random Error (Varying Error)

Sx and Xmean (sample population) => Estimate of Sigma and Mu (parent population with infinite samples)

1.3.2 Categorizing and Naming Errors and Uncertainties

Type A: directed

Type B: referred

1.3.3 Estimating “Standard” Uncertainties

Random standard uncertainty Sx => Influence on measured variable of all elemental error sources that varied during
measurement period (often Gaussian “pool”)

Systematic standard uncertainty Beta => rectangular/triangular “pool”

1.3.4 Determining Combined “Standard” Uncertainties

Ux = MCM

Ux =sqrt (bx^2+sx^2)

1.3.5 Elemental Systematic Errors and Effects of Calibration

1.3.6 Expansion of Concept from “Measurement Uncertainty” to “Experimental Uncertainty”

1.3.7 Repetition and Replication

1.3.8 Associating a Percentage Coverage or Confidence with Uncertainty Estimates

1.4 Experimental results determined from a data reduction equation combining multiple measured variables

1.5 Guides and Standards

1.5.1 Experimental Uncertainty Analysis

1.5.2 Validation of Simulations

1.6 A Note on Nomenclature