M a y 2 , 2 0 2 1

Weekend report: new month, new numbers

From our March 21st Weekend Report:
2,100
Gold weekly with 3-mo. avg. $1767.7 last “Our weekly momentum trend
2,050
assessment is that the low for the
2,000 intermediate decline has now been
1,950 seen.” That low was $1673.30. April’s
1,900 action saw an advance that carried
1,850
into the $1790s with a monthly close
at $1767.7, more than $100 off the low
1,800
within a month.
price

1,750
The next and more important time-
1,700
scale of metric that we’re monitoring is
1,650 monthly momentum, price vs. the 3-
10/23/2020

11/20/2020

12/18/2020
12/31/2020
8/28/2020

4/9/2021
7/31/2020
8/14/2020

9/11/2020
9/25/2020
10/9/2020

11/6/2020

12/4/2020

1/15/2021
1/29/2021
2/12/2021
2/26/2021
3/12/2021
3/26/2021

4/23/2021

mo. avg. or its equivalents such as the

10-wk. avg. When those numbers are
triggered for gold, silver, and various
250 mining ETFs, then we should expect
Arrows note divergence between price and momen-
200 full resumption of the ongoing long-
term uptrend. As is often the case
150
with MSA analysis, we will define
100
layered triggered levels for upside or
50 downside. Weekly factors are now
0 positive; monthly for gold is just below
-50 key levels; while GDX and XAU have
-100 already shifted monthly to positive.
-150 We begin with the same set of gold
monthly momentum: weekly closes vs. 3-mo. avg. charts that we’ve shown in recent
-200
reports. Momentum shows clear
09/11/2020

12/31/2020
07/31/2020
08/14/2020
08/28/2020

09/25/2020
10/09/2020
10/23/2020
11/06/2020
11/20/2020
12/04/2020
12/18/2020

01/15/2021
01/29/2021
02/12/2021
02/26/2021
03/12/2021
03/26/2021
04/09/2021
04/23/2021

basing range action. We’re waiting

only for a weekly close over the upper
end of that range. The red horizontal
Major evolution in technical research since 1992
Momentum Structural Analysis, LLC. michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
For MSA’s history and an introduction to its methods visit: www.olivermsa.com
MAY 2, 2021 MSA PAGE 2

is plotted through the higher of two rally high weekly closes in monthly momentum since September
last year. To close over that line in May requires a weekly close of $1779.
But also notice that with the recent rally high of three weeks ago and the very gentle rollover of the past
two weeks (distinctly unlike the sharp drops from prior rally highs along that gradual downtrend line),
there is now a three-point downtrend constructed on momentum. Close a week in May above the zero
line/3-mo. avg. ($1747.9) and that black line will be closed above. That subtle breakout will occur, of
course, if gold simply holds steady, given where it closed April. Likely it will produce further upside.
The red-line structure being overcome will be a major monthly momentum time-scale indication of
upturn. And as far as we’re concerned, crossing that red horizontal is the last positive we need to fully
assume that the major upside is resuming—after nine months of overlapping pullback.
And consider this lookback measured fact. It took gold eight months of overlapping waves of selling
pressure to cause gold to give back 18% from the top daily close in August to that low close in March.
If you go back over the past dozen years in the S&P 500 and look at sharp counter-trend declines that
shed 20% in a matter of three or fewer months, then there were three, with one of them giving
back nearly 40%. Yet the fear generated among gold longs has consistently been more than the fear
among stock market longs. Why?
It is apparent that the continual selling of gold since August was being met by sufficient buying to keep
the pace of decline measured and slow and never even reaching -20%. Contrast that arm-wrestling
gold pullback with the five-and-a-half -month period from March 2020 to early August 2020. Gold
gained 40% in far less time! The question to consider, therefore, is who has more potency? The bulls or
bears in gold?

2000
1800
Gold monthly closes
Take in gold’s long-term price 1600
vista (since 1999). 1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
01/29/1999
01/31/2000
01/31/2001
01/31/2002
01/31/2003
01/30/2004
01/31/2005
01/31/2006
01/31/2007
01/31/2008
01/28/2009
01/29/2010
01/31/2011

01/31/2013
01/31/2014
01/30/2015
01/29/2016
01/31/2017
01/31/2018
01/31/2019
01/31/2020
01/31/2012

1/29/2021
MAY 2, 2021 MSA PAGE 3

32
$25.853 last Silver
Silver weekly
30
10-wk. avg. momentum defines a pair of
28
26 peak weekly closes each just a decimal
price

24 below +2 (just below $2 over the 10-wk.

22 avg., down arrows).
20
18 When silver closes a week at $2 or more
16
over the 10-wk. avg., that will be a weekly
14
12
10-wk. avg.
closing breakout over action going back to
10 September. $2 over for this week is

10/2/2020

2/19/2021
8/9/2019

9/6/2019

10/4/2019

11/1/2019

1/24/2020

2/21/2020

3/20/2020

4/17/2020

5/15/2020

6/12/2020

7/10/2020

8/7/2020

9/4/2020

1/22/2021

3/19/2021

4/16/2021
11/29/2019

12/27/2019

10/30/2020

11/27/2020

12/24/2020
$27.77; next week $27.68, that number
adjusting down weekly.

12 Also note that for the price chart the

10 peak weekly closes of the August surge
8 and again early this year were $27.54 and
6 $27.32 (circled). So momentum taking out
4 its horizontal will actually lag price by a bit
in terms of breakout.
momentum

2
0 The most recent rally high in price was
-2 two weeks ago at $26.73, so these
-4
weekly ranges vs. 10-wk avg.
breakout levels—whether on price or
-6 momentum—aren’t that far above the
08/09/2019

09/06/2019

10/04/2019

11/01/2019

11/29/2019

12/27/2019

01/24/2020

02/21/2020

03/20/2020

04/17/2020

05/15/2020

06/12/2020

07/10/2020

08/07/2020

09/04/2020

10/02/2020

10/30/2020

11/27/2020

12/24/2020

01/22/2021

02/19/2021

03/19/2021

04/16/2021

recent high.
We realize most investors feel they’ve
been beaten up over the past several quarters, but in fact the relative performance leader silver (it
became that in July last year) has gone sideways in price while continuing to gain in relative performance
to gold. Silver must be frustrating for those who are short.

50
Larger-trend context—via
weekly price closes going back 45
a decade
Silver weekly closes
40

35

30

25

20

15

10
09/14/2012
04/08/2011
09/30/2011
03/23/2012

03/08/2013
08/30/2013
02/21/2014
08/15/2014
02/06/2015
7/31/2015
01/22/2016
07/15/2016
01/06/2017
06/30/2017
12/22/2017
06/15/2018
12/07/2018
5/31/2019
11/22/2019
5/15/2020
11/6/2020
4/30/2021
MAY 2, 2021 MSA PAGE 4

50 GDX (VanEck Vector Gold and Silver

GDX monthly 34.36 last Miner ETF)
45
When GDX’s price action took out the
November low in February this year, it
40
price

35 remained below that prior price chart low

30
for all of a month before turning right
back up and living above that prior low.
25
More importantly, all the monthly
20 3-mo.avg.
momentum closing readings (bottom
15 chart) since September have been

04/30/2020

02/26/2021
02/28/2018

04/30/2018

06/29/2018

08/31/2018

10/31/2018

12/31/2018

02/28/2019

04/30/2019

06/28/2019

08/30/2019

10/31/2019

12/31/2019

02/28/2020

06/30/2020

08/31/2020

10/30/2020

12/31/2020

04/30/2021
contained below the zero line/3-mo. avg.
April closed above the zero line.
14 Arrows note divergence between price and momentum. Breakout.
momentum

12
10 If you want further positive evidence, then
8 if this past month’s oscillator high is taken
out, that will indicate that the April
6
4
2 breakout is continuing. GDX will exceed
0
-2
the April momentum chart high by trading
-4 to 36.50 in May (last month’s price high
-6 was 36.83).
-8
monthly ranges vs. 3-mo. avg. with
-10
momentum standard deviation bands But the close over the monthly zero line
-12
resistance level already looks very
8/30/2019
2/28/2018

4/30/2018

6/29/2018

8/31/2018

2/28/2019

4/30/2019

6/28/2019

2/28/2020

4/30/2020

6/30/2020

8/31/2020

2/26/2021

4/30/2021
10/31/2018

12/31/2018

10/31/2019

12/31/2019

10/30/2020

12/31/2020

positive.
MAY 2, 2021 MSA PAGE 5

170 XAU Index (Philadelphia Gold and Silver

160 XAU Index monthly 142.13 last Index)
The oldest gold and silver miner index out
150
140
there, tracing back to the 1970s.
price

130
120
Here is its monthly momentum. Very
110
similar momentum behavior as GDX. It
100
90
has been in a basing pattern for more
80
than two quarters with last month’s price
70
3-mo.avg.
gain of 5.7% helping momentum post a
60 closing reading above all prior monthly

04/30/2020

02/26/2021
02/28/2018

04/30/2018

06/29/2018

08/31/2018

10/31/2018

12/31/2018

02/28/2019

04/30/2019

06/28/2019

08/30/2019

10/31/2019

12/31/2019

02/28/2020

06/29/2020

08/31/2020

10/30/2020

12/31/2020

04/30/2021
oscillator closing readings since
September. In XAU’s case those prior
50 Arrows note divergence between price and momentum. peak closes were marginally above the
zero line. In sum, last month’s
momentum

40

30 momentum close looks positive, echoing

20 GDX’s close.
10 Note that there was actually a lower price
0 low in March vs. the low trade last
-10 November. It’s hard to see on the price
-20 chart, but just enough to stick its toes
-30 monthly ranges vs. 3-mo. avg. with below that prior low by one full point—
-40 momentum standard deviation bands
and not find selling, but buying.
08/30/2019

2/28/2020

4/30/2020

6/29/2020

8/31/2020

2/26/2021

4/30/2021
02/28/2018

04/30/2018

06/29/2018

08/31/2018

10/31/2018

12/31/2018

02/28/2019

04/30/2019

06/28/2019

10/31/2019

12/31/2019

10/30/2020

12/31/2020

Meanwhile, momentum didn’t even

approach its November oscillator low.

XAU Index: long-term price 240

220
chart vista
price

XAU Index monthly

200
A massive base spanning seven 180
years and defined by three 160
horizontal peaks. 140
36-mo. avg.
120
Do you think that breakout from
100
the largest and clearest base in
80
XAU’s history (the prior such clear
60
and large horizontal price base 40
was from 1998 to mid-2003) 20
should only produce one upward
1/31/2014

7/31/2020
7/31/2013

7/31/2014
1/30/2015
7/31/2015
1/29/2016
7/29/2016

7/31/2017

1/31/2020

1/29/2021
01/30/2009
07/31/2009
01/29/2010
07/30/2010
01/31/2011
07/29/2011
01/31/2012
07/31/2012
01/31/2013

01/31/2017

01/31/2018
07/31/2018
01/31/2019
07/31/2019

price bolt and then fail?

MAY 2, 2021 MSA PAGE 6

55 SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF)

SIL weekly with 3-mo. avg.
The momentum chart shows weekly closes
41.68 last
50 plotted vs. the changing 3-mo. avg. (how
many points above or below that average).

45
Momentum has been range-bound since
late last year. The two peaks in that range
price

define the red horizontal. Both were

40 within decimals of each other, around 2.5
points over the zero line/3-mo. avg. Close
35
any week in May at a price of 45.25 or
higher and the top end of the basing range
9/25/2020

12/31/2020
9/11/2020

10/9/2020

11/6/2020

12/4/2020

1/15/2021
1/29/2021
2/12/2021
2/26/2021
3/12/2021
3/26/2021
4/9/2021
4/23/2021
07/31/2020
08/14/2020
08/28/2020

10/23/2020

11/20/2020

12/18/2020

will be overcome. That number is

marginally above the price high of two
weeks ago.
15
Meanwhile, this intermediate trend would
10 have to be labeled as only “neutral” since
the lows of last year. The long-term trend,
5 like silver itself, remains positive.

-5

monthly momentum: weekly closes vs. 3-mo. avg.

-10
07/31/2020
08/14/2020
08/28/2020
09/11/2020
09/25/2020
10/09/2020
10/23/2020
11/06/2020
11/20/2020
12/04/2020
12/18/2020
12/31/2020
01/15/2021
01/29/2021
02/12/2021
02/26/2021
03/12/2021
03/26/2021
04/09/2021
04/23/2021
MAY 2, 2021 MSA PAGE 7

Positions in markets mentioned: long PHYS (Sprott Physical Gold Trust) and SLV calls

© Copyright 2021 by Momentum Structural Analysis, LLC

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You should be aware that securities and futures brokers and advisors typically charge fees for their services. Accordingly, it may be
necessary for your account to enjoy substantial gains in order to realize profits net of fees.
The information contained in this report is subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed that MSA’s methods as presented will
be profitable or that they will not result in losses. The indicators and strategies are provided for informational and educational purposes
only and should not be construed as investment or trading advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information herein in
placing any trades or making any investment. Nor should you assume that you will be able to enter or exit markets at prices discussed in
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