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Monday March 17 2008

America was conned - who will pay?

The South Sea Bubble ended in riots as trust was lost. Wall Street also
duped the public
Larry Elliott, economics editor
The Guardian

Bear Stearns marks the moment when the global financial crisis went critical. Up until
last Friday, it had been possible - just about - to believe that the worst was over and
that things were about to get better. That pretence was stripped away when JP
Morgan, at the behest of the Federal Reserve, stepped in when the hedge funds
pulled the plug on the fifth-biggest US investment bank.
It is now clear that no end is in sight to the turmoil, and the reason for that is that the
Fed and the US treasury are no closer to solving the underlying problem than they
were eight months ago. The crisis will only end when house prices stop falling and
banks stop racking up huge losses on their loans. Doing that, however, will require
the US government to intervene directly in the real estate market to end the wave of
foreclosures. Ideologically, it is ill-equipped to take that step and, as a result,
property prices will fall and the financial meltdown will go on and on.
Ultimately, though, action will be taken because there will be political pressure for it.
Indeed, it is somewhat surprising that there is not already rioting in the streets, given
the gigantic fraud perpetrated by the financial elite at the expense of ordinary
Americans.
The US has just had its weakest period of expansion since the 1950s. Consumption
growth has been poor. Investment growth has been modest. Exports have been
sluggish. But if you are at the top of the tree, the years since the last recession in
2001 has been a veritable golden age. Salaries for executives have rocketed and
profits have soared, because the productivity gains from a growing economy have
been disproportionately skewed towards capital.
Patriotic
For ordinary Americans, though, it has been a different story. Real wages have been
growing slowly; at just 1.6% a year on average over the latest upswing, well down on
the experience of earlier decades. Business, of course, needs consumers to carry on
spending in order to make money, so a way had to be found to persuade households
to do their patriotic duty. The method chosen was simple. Whip up a colossal housing
bubble, convince consumers that it makes sense to borrow money against the rising
value of their homes to supplement their meagre real wage growth and watch the
profits roll in.
As they did - for a while. Now it's payback time and the mood could get very ugly.
Americans, to put it bluntly, have been conned. They have been duped by a bunch of
serpent-tongued hucksters who packed up the wagon and made it across the county
line before a lynch mob could be formed.
The debate now is not about whether the US is in recession but how deep and long
that recession will be. Super-bears have started to say that this is perhaps "The Big
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One", by which they mean the onset of a new Great Depression. The need to rescue
Bear Stearns has done little to still those voices.
As the economics team at HSBC recently pointed out, there has been a "catastrophic
breakdown" of trust, and when that has happened in the past - the US in the 1930s,
Japan in the 1990s - chucking extra money at the banks in the hope that they will
start lending again proves ineffective.
It's not hard to see why trust has become such a rare commodity: Wall Street at the
height of the securitisation mania had, in effect, become London at the time of the
South Sea Bubble crisis in 1720. Vast quantities of funny paper were changing hands
even though those involved in the deals had no idea of their true worth. Nor did they
care. Inevitably, now the bubble has burst and the huge Ponzi securitisation scam
has been exposed, there has been a reaction. The securitisation market is dead,
there is less money sloshing round the system, banks are hoarding their cash.
Having allowed the housing boom to rage out of control for too long and then
delaying cuts in interest rates until the housing market was gripped by recessionary
forces, the Fed is now trying to make up for lost time with a burst of hyperactivity. It
will cut interest rates on Wednesday and keep cutting them: financial markets expect
the Fed funds rate to be 1% by the summer, and they are probably right. In most
downturns, easier monetary policy does the trick. Lower interest rates make it
cheaper to borrow and also change the trade-off between saving and spending. This
may not be the usual sort of downturn, however, with consumers going through a
period of debt revulsion after the excesses of recent years, even so the consensus is
that after two or three quarters of falling output, a slow and sluggish recovery will be
under way.
Deflation
These hopes are likely to be dashed, unless there is intervention at home and
internationally to tackle the crisis. Domestically, the priority should be to stop homes
that have been foreclosed being auctioned on the open market, since by selling them
at a 50% discount property prices are driven down. The US does not seem to have
learned the lessons from Japan, which encouraged a fire sale of property in the 1990s
and was sucked into a classic debt deflation trap as a result. Those who argue, with
some force, that it would be counter-productive to intervene in the market because
the US needs to work the rottenness out of its system must recognise that the cold
turkey option will be very long and painful.
The second form of intervention should be to shore up the dollar, the collapse of
which is worrying countries that rely heavily on exports and is the main reason for
the surge in commodity prices. Co-ordinated intervention by the major central banks
needs to be at the top of the agenda at next month's G7 meeting in Washington, and
there could be action even sooner if the dollar continues to tank.
In the longer term, lessons must be learnt from the turmoil. One is that you don't
solve the problems of a collapsing bubble by blowing up another, which is what Alan
Greenspan did after the dotcom fiasco in 2001 - the most irresponsible behaviour of
any central banker in living memory.
The second lesson is that there has to be far stricter regulation not just of the US real
estate market but of Wall Street, to prevent the return of irresponsible lending as
soon as the recovery is firmly under way. If this is, heaven help us, The Big One, one
of the only consolations will be that the repugnance at the orgy of speculation that
has sapped the strength of the US economy will put a new New Deal on the political
agenda.
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But for this to happen there has to be a political response and even though this
year's presidential election will be held in the shadow of recession, there appears not
to be a potential FDR among the contenders for the White House. Yet if this crisis
really does get as bad as some are forecasting, the public will rightly demand more
than a slap on the wrist for Wall Street.
larry.elliott@guardian.co.uk