CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.0. Expert system

In artificial intelligence, an expert system is a computer system emulating the decision-making

ability of a human expert (Jackson Peter, 1998). Expert systems are designed to solve complex
problems by reasoning through bodies of knowledge, represented mainly as if–then rules rather
than through conventional procedural code. The first expert systems were created in the 1970s
and then proliferated in the 1980s. Expert systems were among the first truly successful forms of
artificial intelligence (AI) software. (Cornelius T. 2002)

An expert system is divided into two subsystems: the inference engine and the knowledge base.
The knowledge base represents facts and rules. The inference engine applies the rules to the
known facts to deduce new facts. Inference engines can also include explanation and debugging
abilities. (Nilsson, 1998)

2.1 History

2.1.1 Early development

Soon after the dawn of modern computers in the late 1940s – early 1950s, researchers started
realizing the immense potential these machines had for modern society. One of the first
challenges was to make such machine capable of “thinking” like humans. In particular, making
these machines capable of making important decisions the way humans do. The medical /
healthcare field presented the tantalizing challenge to enable these machines to make medical
diagnostic decisions. (Yanase J, et al 2019)

Thus, in the late 1950s, right after the information age had fully arrived, researchers started
experimenting with the prospect of using computer technology to emulate human decision-
making. For example, biomedical researchers started creating computer-aided systems for
diagnostic applications in medicine and biology. These early diagnostic systems used patients’
symptoms and laboratory test results as inputs to generate a diagnostic outcome. These systems
were often described as the early forms of expert systems. However, researchers had realized that
there were significant limitations when using traditional methods such as flow-charts statistical
pattern-matching, or probability theory.( Ledley RS et al, 1959)

2.1.2. Formal introduction & later developments

This previous situation gradually led to the development of expert systems, which used
knowledge-based approaches. These expert systems in medicine were the MYCIN expert
system, Shortliffe EH, et al 1975) the INTERNIST-I expert system and later, in the middle of
the 1980s, the CADUCEUS .

Expert systems were formally introduced around 1965 by the Stanford Heuristic Programming
Project led by Edward Feigenbaum, who is sometimes termed the "father of expert systems";
other key early contributors were Bruce Buchanan and Randall Davis. The Stanford researchers
tried to identify domains where expertise was highly valued and complex, such as diagnosing
infectious diseases (Mycin) and identifying unknown organic molecules ( Dendral ). The idea
that "intelligent systems derive their power from the knowledge they possess rather than from the
specific formalisms and inference schemes they use" Edward Feigenbaum, 1977 – as
Feigenbaum said – was at the time a significant step forward, since the past research had been
focused on heuristic computational methods, culminating in attempts to develop very general-
purpose problem solvers (foremostly the conjunct work of Allen Newell and Herbert Simon).
Expert systems became some of the first truly successful forms of artificial intelligence (AI)
software. (Russell Stuart, 2004)

Research on expert systems was also active in France. While in the US the focus tended to be on
rules-based systems, first on systems hard coded on top of LISP programming environments and
then on expert system shells developed by vendors such as Intellicorp , in France research
focused more on systems developed in Prolog. The advantage of expert system shells was that
they were somewhat easier for nonprogrammers to use. The advantage of Prolog environments
was that they were not focused only on if-then rules; Prolog environments provided a much
better realization of a complete first order logic environment.

In the 1980s, expert systems proliferated. Universities offered expert system courses and two
thirds of the Fortune 500 companies applied the technology in daily business activities. [3][25]
Interest was international with the Fifth Generation Computer Systems project in Japan and
increased research funding in Europe.

In 1981, the first IBM PC , with the PC DOS operating system, was introduced. The imbalance
between the high affordability of the relatively powerful chips in the PC, compared to the much
more expensive cost of processing power in the mainframes that dominated the corporate IT
world at the time, created a new type of architecture for corporate computing, termed the client-
server model. Calculations and reasoning could be performed at a fraction of the price of a
mainframe using a PC. This model also enabled business units to bypass corporate IT
departments and directly build their own applications. As a result, client server had a tremendous
impact on the expert systems market. Expert systems were already outliers in much of the
business world, requiring new skills that many IT departments did not have and were not eager
to develop. They were a natural fit for new PC-based shells that promised to put application
development into the hands of end users and experts. Until then, the main development
environment for expert systems had been high end Lisp machines from Xerox ,

Symbolics , and Texas Instruments . With the rise of the PC and client server computing,
vendors such as Intellicorp and Inference Corporation shifted their priorities to developing PC
based tools. Also, new vendors, often financed by venture capital (such as Aion Corporation,
Neuron Data , Exsys, and many others, started appearing regularly. (Hurwitz Judith, 2011)

The first expert system to be used in a design capacity for a large-scale product was the SID
(Synthesis of Integral Design) software program, developed in 1982. Written in LISP , SID
generated 93% of the VAX 9000 CPU logic gates. [29] Input to the software was a set of rules
created by several expert logic designers. SID expanded the rules and generated software logic
synthesis routines many times the size of the rules themselves. Surprisingly, the combination of
these rules resulted in an overall design that exceeded the capabilities of the experts themselves,
and in many cases out-performed the human counterparts. While some rules contradicted others,
top-level control parameters for speed and area provided the tie-breaker. The program was highly
controversial, but used nevertheless due to project budget constraints. It was terminated by logic
designers after the VAX 9000 project completion.

During the years before the middle of the 1970s, the expectations of what expert systems can
accomplish in many fields tended to be extremely optimistic. At the beginning of these early
studies, researchers were hoping to develop entirely automatic (i.e., completely computerized)
expert systems. The expectations of people of what computers can do were frequently too
idealistic. This situation radically changed after Richard M. Karp published his breakthrough
paper: “Reducibility among Combinatorial Problems” in the early 1970s. Thanks to Karp's work
it became clear that there are certain limitations and possibilities when one designs computer
algorithms. His findings describe what computers can do and what they cannot do. Many of the
computational problems related to this type of expert systems have certain pragmatic limitations.
These findings laid down the groundwork that led to the next developments in the field.

2.1.3 Current Approaches to Expert Systems

The limitations of the previous type of expert systems have urged researchers to develop new
types of approaches. They have developed more efficient, flexible and powerful approaches in
order to simulate the human decision-making process. Some of the approaches that researchers
have developed are based on new methods of artificial intelligence (AI), and in particular in
machine learning and data mining approaches with a feedback mechanism. Related is the
discussion on the disadvantages section.

Modern systems can incorporate new knowledge more easily and thus update themselves easily.
Such systems can generalize from existing knowledge better and deal with vast amounts of
complex data. Related is the subject of big data here. Sometimes these type of expert systems are
called “intelligent systems.

2.1.4 Software architecture

Illustrating example of backward chaining from a 1990 Master's. An expert system is an

example of a knowledge-based system . Expert systems were the first commercial systems to use
a knowledge-based architecture. A knowledge-based system is essentially composed of two sub-
systems: the knowledge base and the inference engine. (Smith Reid, 1985).

The knowledge base represents facts about the world. In early expert systems such as Mycin and
Dendral, these facts were represented mainly as flat assertions about variables. In later expert
systems developed with commercial shells, the knowledge base took on more structure and used
concepts from object-oriented programming. The world was represented as classes, subclasses,
and instances and assertions were replaced by values of object instances. The rules worked by
querying and asserting values of the objects.

The inference engine is an automated reasoning system that evaluates the current state of the
knowledge-base, applies relevant rules, and then asserts new knowledge into the knowledge
base. The inference engine may also include abilities for explanation, so that it can explain to a
user the chain of reasoning used to arrive at a particular conclusion by tracing back over the
firing of rules that resulted in the assertion.

There are mainly two modes for an inference engine: forward chaining and backward chaining.
The different approaches are dictated by whether the inference engine is being driven by the
antecedent (left hand side) or the consequent (right hand side) of the rule. In forward chaining an
antecedent fires and asserts the consequent. For example, consider the following rule:

A simple example of forward chaining would be to assert Man(Socrates) to the system and then
trigger the inference engine. It would match R1 and assert Mortal(Socrates) into the knowledge
base.

As expert systems evolved, many new techniques were incorporated into various types of
inference engines. (Mettrey William, 1987).
2.1.5 Advantages

The goal of knowledge-based systems is to make the critical information required for the system
to work explicit rather than implicit. In a traditional computer program the logic is embedded in
code that can typically only be reviewed by an IT specialist. With an expert system the goal was
to specify the rules in a format that was intuitive and easily understood, reviewed, and even
edited by domain experts rather than IT experts. The benefits of this explicit knowledge
representation were rapid development and ease of maintenance.

Ease of maintenance is the most obvious benefit. This was achieved in two ways. First, by
removing the need to write conventional code, many of the normal problems that can be caused
by even small changes to a system could be avoided with expert systems. Essentially, the logical
flow of the program (at least at the highest level) was simply a given for the system, simply
invoke the inference engine. This also was a reason for the second benefit: rapid prototyping .
With an expert system shell it was possible to enter a few rules and have a prototype developed
in days rather than the months or year typically associated with complex IT projects.

A claim for expert system shells that was often made was that they removed the need for trained
programmers and that experts could develop systems themselves. In reality, this was seldom if
ever true. While the rules for an expert system were more comprehensible than typical computer
code, they still had a formal syntax where a misplaced comma or other character could cause
havoc as with any other computer language. Also, as expert systems moved from prototypes in
the lab to deployment in the business world, issues of integration and maintenance became far
more critical. Inevitably demands to integrate with, and take advantage of, large legacy databases
and systems arose. To accomplish this, integration required the same skills as any other type of
system. [45]

Disadvantages

The most common disadvantage cited for expert systems in the academic literature is the

knowledge acquisition problem. Obtaining the time of domain experts for any software
application is always difficult, but for expert systems it was especially difficult because the
experts were by definition highly valued and in constant demand by the organization. As a result
of this problem, a great deal of research in the later years of expert systems was focused on tools
for knowledge acquisition, to help automate the process of designing, debugging, and
maintaining rules defined by experts. However, when looking at the life-cycle of expert systems
in actual use, other problems – essentially the same problems as those of any other large system
– seem at least as critical as knowledge acquisition: integration, access to large databases, and
performance. [46][47]

Performance could be especially problematic because early expert systems were built using tools
(such as earlier Lisp versions) that interpreted code expressions without first compiling them.
This provided a powerful development environment, but with the drawback that it was virtually
impossible to match the efficiency of the fastest compiled languages (such as C ). System and
database integration were difficult for early expert systems because the tools were mostly in
languages and platforms that were neither familiar to nor welcome in most corporate IT
environments – programming languages such as Lisp and Prolog, and hardware platforms such
as Lisp machines and personal computers. As a result, much effort in the later stages of expert
system tool development was focused on integrating with legacy environments such as COBOL
and large database systems, and on porting to more standard platforms. These issues were
resolved mainly by the client-server paradigm shift, as PCs were gradually accepted in the IT
environment as a legitimate platform for serious business system development and as affordable

minicomputer servers provided the processing power needed for AI applications. [45]

Another major challenge of expert systems emerges when the size of the knowledge base
increases. This causes the processing complexity to increase. For instance, when an expert
system with 100 million rules was envisioned as the ultimate expert system, it became obvious
that such system would be too complex and it would face too many computational problems.
[48] An inference engine would have to be able to process huge numbers of rules to reach a
decision.

How to verify that decision rules are consistent with each other is also a challenge when there are
too many rules. Usually such problem leads to a satisfiability (SAT) formulation. [49] This is a
well-known NP-complete problem Boolean satisfiability problem. If we assume only binary
variables, say n of them, and then the corresponding search space is of size 2 . Thus, the search
space can grow exponentially.

There are also questions on how to prioritize the use of the rules in order to operate more
efficiently, or how to resolve ambiguities (for instance, if there are too many else-if sub-
structures within a single rule) and so on. [50]

Other problems are related to the overfitting and

overgeneralization effects when using known facts and trying to generalize to other cases not
described explicitly in the knowledge base. Such problems exist with methods that employ
machine learning approaches too. [51][52]

Another problem related to the knowledge base is how to make updates of its knowledge quickly
and effectively. [53][54][55] Also how to add a new piece of knowledge (i.e., where to add it
among many rules) is challenging. Modern approaches that rely on machine learning methods
are easier in this regard [ citation needed] .

Because of the above challenges, it became clear that new approaches to AI were required
instead of rule-based technologies. These new approaches are based on the use of machine
learning techniques, along with the use of feedback mechanisms. [9]

The key challenges that expert systems in medicine (if one considers computer-aided diagnostic
systems as modern expert systems), and perhaps in other application domains, include issues
related to aspects such as: big data, existing regulations, healthcare practice, various algorithmic
issues, and system assessment.

Applications

Hayes-Roth divides expert systems applications into 10 categories illustrated in the following
table. The example applications were not in the original Hayes-Roth table, and some of them
arose well afterward. Any application that is not footnoted is described in the Hayes-Roth book.
Also, while these categories provide an intuitive framework to describe the space of expert
systems applications, they are not rigid categories, and in some cases an application may show
traits of more than one category.
Category of Application with Example

i. Interpretation Inferring situation descriptions from sensor data Hearsay (speech

recognition), PROSPECTOR

ii. Prediction Inferring likely consequences of given situations Preterm Birth Risk
Assessment

iii. Diagnosis Inferring system malfunctions from observables CADUCEUS,

iv. MYCIN, PUFF, Mistral, Eydenet, Kaleidos

v. Design Configuring objects under constraints Dendral ,

vi. Mortgage Loan Advisor , R1 (DEC VAX Configuration), SID (DEC VAX 9000 CPU )

vii. Planning Designing actions Mission Planning for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

viii. Monitoring Comparing observations to plan vulnerabilities REACTOR

ix. Debugging Providing incremental solutions for complex problems SAINT, MATHLAB,
MACSYMA

x. Repair Executing a plan to administer a prescribed remedy Toxic Spill Crisis

Management

xi. Instruction Diagnosing, assessing, and repairing student behavior SMH.PAL, Intelligent
Clinical Training, STEAMER

xii. Control Interpreting, predicting, repairing, and monitoring system behaviors Real Time
Process Control, Space Shuttle Mission Control

Hearsay was an early attempt at solving voice recognition through an expert systems approach.
For the most part this category of expert systems was not all that successful. Hearsay and all
interpretation systems are essentially pattern recognition systems—looking for patterns in noisy
data. In the case of Hearsay recognizing phonemes in an audio stream. Other early examples
were analyzing sonar data to detect Russian submarines. These kinds of systems proved much
more amenable to a neural network AI solution than a rule-based approach.

CADUCEUS and MYCIN were medical diagnosis systems. The user describes their symptoms
to the computer as they would to a doctor and the computer returns a medical diagnosis.

Dendral was a tool to study hypothesis formation in the identification of organic molecules. The
general problem it solved—designing a solution given a set of constraints—was one of the most
successful areas for early expert systems applied to business domains such as salespeople
configuring Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAX computers and mortgage loan
application development.

2.3 Artificial Intelligence (AI )

Artificial intelligence (AI) is intelligence demonstrated by machines, unlike the natural

intelligence displayed by humans and animals, which involves consciousness and emotionality.
The distinction between the former and the latter categories is often revealed by the acronym
chosen. 'Strong' AI is usually labelled as artificial general intelligence (AGI) while attempts to
emulate 'natural' intelligence have been called artificial biological intelligence (ABI). Leading AI
textbooks define the field as the study of "intelligent agents": any device that perceives its
environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of successfully achieving its goals.
Colloquially, the term "artificial intelligence" is often used to describe machines that mimic
"cognitive" functions that humans associate with the human mind , such as "learning" and
"problem solving".

2.4 Components of Expert System

There are many components that are vital roles play in the structure of expert system, because
every component have own importance in the heart of expert system.

The list of the components are:

 i. Knowledge-Based System
ii. Workplace
iii. Explanation facility
iv. Reasoning capacity
v. Inference engine
vi. User interface
vii. Knowledge-Based

2.4.1 Management System

This is similar to the database management system in an information system. Its main function
Build knowledge base with knowledge and rules.

2.4.2 Workplace

A work area or blackboard is a memory area used to describe the current problem And archiving
intermediate results.

2.4.3 Explanation Facility

Most expert systems have an explanation facility. It tells you how the recommendations are
Removed User can know how the expert system reached the solution, why some options
Disclaimed, why was asked for some information, etc. The clarification feature answers these
Questions by reference to system targets, data input and decision rules. For example, in the case
of evaluation of loan proposal, the explanation of the expert system will be clarified on the
facility inquiry Why an application was approved and why the other was rejected. In the case of
a medical specialist System such as Mycin, this feature produces trust about the expert system
and the user the solution provides this problem.

2.4.4 Reasoning Capacity

The expert system has the ability to analyze whether its solution failed or succeeded Methods to
improve its solution.

2.4.5 Inference Engine

Intensive engine model works in the disassembly support system. this Manipulate a series of
rules using forward chewing and backward chaining techniques. The following is a series of
engine checking ahead… Then check the situation. based on A special solution is answered. In
the techniques of backward chains, ingestion the engine starts with the target and checks if the
conditions that go to that goal are present.

2.4.5 User Interface

The system provides an interface for users to interact with the system to generate solutions. This
decision is similar to the communication feature in the support system. Artificial intelligence
Technology tries to provide users with a natural language interface.

2.5 Architecture of Expert System

Knowledge Base – It is warehouse of special heuristics or rules, which are used directly by
knowledge, facts (productions). It has knowledge that is needed for understanding, formulating,
& problem solving.

Working Memory – It helps to describe the current running problem and record intermediate
output. Records Intermediate Hypothesis & Decisions: 1. Plan, 2. Agenda, 3. Solution

Inference Engine – It is heart of expert system as well as helps to manage entire structure of
expert system, and it delivers to different methodology for reasoning.

Explanation System – It helps to trace responsibility and justify the behavior of expert system
by firing questions and answers, such as Why, How, What, Where, When, Who.

User Interface – It allows users to insert their queries with using own Natural Language
Processing otherwise menus & graphics.

Knowledge Engineer – Main objective of this engineer is to design system for specific problem
domain with using of expert system shell.

System Engineer – To design user interface and declarative format of knowledge base as well as
to build inference engine

Users – They are non expert person who want to seek direct advice.
2.6 Features of an Expert System

The following list from Rule-Based Expert Systems suggests seven criteria that are important
prerequisites for the acceptance of an expert system.

1) The program should be useful.” An expert system should be developed to meet a specific
need, one for which it is recognized that assistance is needed. “The program should be
usable.” An expert system should be designed so that even a novice computer user finds
it easy to use. “The program should be educational when appropriate.” An expert system
may be used by non-experts, who should be able to increase their own expertise by using
the system. “The program should be able to explain its advice.”

2) An expert system should be able to explain the “reasoning” process that led it to its
conclusions, to allow us to decide whether to accept the system’s recommendations. “The
program should be able to respond to simple questions.” Because people with different
levels of knowledge may use the system, an expert system should be able to answer
questions about points that may not be clear to all users. “The program should be able to
learn new knowledge.” Not only should an expert system be able to respond to our
questions, but it also should be able to ask questions to gain additional information. “The
program’s knowledge should be easily modified.” It is important that we should be able
to revise the knowledge base of an expert system easily to correct errors or add new
information.

2.7 Expert System Shell

An expert system shell can be considered as an expert system with the knowledge removed.
Therefore, all the user has to do is to add knowledge in the form of rules and provide relevant
data to solve a problem. Let us now look at who is needed to develop an expert system and what
skills are needed.

In general, there are five members of the expert system development team: the domain expert,
the knowledge engineer, the programmer, the project manager and the end-user. The success of
their expert system entirely depends on how well the members work together.

2. 8 Domain Expert

The domain expert is a knowledgeable and skilled person capable of solving problems in a
specific area or domain. This person has the greatest expertise in a given domain. This expertise
is to be captured in the expert system.

Therefore, the expert must be able to communicate his or her knowledge, be willing to
participate in the expert system development and commit a substantial amount of time to the
project. The domain expert is the most important player in the expert system development team.

2.9 Knowledge engineer

The Knowledge Engineer is someone who is capable of designing, building and testing an expert
system. This person is responsible for selecting an appropriate task for the expert system. He or
she interviews the domain expert to find out how a particular problem is solved. Through
interaction with the expert, the knowledge engineer establishes what reasoning methods the
expert uses to handle facts and rules and decide how to represent them in the expert system.

The knowledge engineer then chooses some development software or an expert system shell or
looks at programming languages for encoding the knowledge. And finally, the knowledge
engineer is responsible for testing, revising and integrating the expert system into the workspace.
Thus, the knowledge engineer is committed to the project from the initial design stage to the
final delivery of the expert system, and even after the project is completed, he or she may also be
involved in maintaining the system

User interface

2.9 User Interface (UI)

The user interface (UI) is the point of human-computer interaction and communication in a
device. This can include display screens, keyboards, a mouse and the appearance of a desktop. It
is also the way through which a user interacts with an application or a website. The growing
dependence of many businesses on web applications and mobile applications has led many
companies to place increased priority on UI in an effort to improve the user's overall experience.
(Fred Churchville, 1957)

2.9.1 Types of user Interfaces

The various types of user interfaces include:

i. Graphical user interface (GUI)

ii. Command line interface (CLI)

iii. Menu-driven user interface

iv. Touch user interface

v. Voice user interface (VUI)

vi. Form-based user interface

vii. Natural language user interface

2.9.2 Component of user interface

2.9.2.1 User Interface Elements

When designing your interface, try to be consistent and predictable in your choice of interface
elements. Whether they are aware of it or not, users have become familiar with elements acting
in a certain way, so choosing to adopt those elements when appropriate will help with task
completion, efficiency, and satisfaction.

Interface elements include but are not limited to:

Input Controls: checkboxes, radio buttons, dropdown lists, list boxes, buttons, toggles, text
fields, date field

Navigational Components: breadcrumb, slider, search field, pagination, slider, tags, icons

Informational Components: tooltips, icons, progress bar, notifications, message boxes, modal
windows

2.10.1 Characteristics of An Expert System

An expert system is usually designed to have the following general characteristics.

1) High level Performance: The system must be capable of responding at a level of

competency equal to or better than an expert system in the field. The quality of the advice
given by the system should be in a high level integrity and for which the performance
ratio should be also very high.

2) Domain Specificity: Expert systems are typically very domain specific. For ex., a
diagnostic expert system for troubleshooting computers must actually perform all the
necessary data manipulation as a human expert would. The developer of such a system
must limit his or her scope of the system to just what is needed to solve the target
problem. Special tools or programming languages are often needed to accomplish the
specific objectives of the system.

3) Good Reliability: The expert system must be as reliable as a human expert.

4) Understandable: The system should be understandable i.e. be able to explain the steps of
reasoning while executing. The expert system should have an explanation capability
similar to the reasoning ability of human experts.

5) Adequate Response time: The system should be designed in such a way that it is able to
perform within a small amount of time, comparable to or better than the time taken by a
human expert to reach at a decision point. An expert system that takes a year to reach a
decision compared to a human expert’s time of one hour would not be useful.

6) Use symbolic representations: Expert system use symbolic representations for knowledge
(rules, networks or frames) and perform their inference through symbolic computations
that closely resemble manipulations of natural language.

7) Linked with Metaknowledge: Expert systems often reason with metaknowledge i.e. they
reason with knowledge about themselves and their own knowledge limits and
capabilities. The use of metaknowledge is quite interactive and simple for various data
representations.

8) Expertise knowledge: Real experts not only produce good solutions but also find them
quickly. So, an expert system must be skillful in applying its knowledge to produce
solutions both efficiently and effectively by using the intelligence human experts.

9) Justified Reasoning: This allows the users to ask the expert system to justify the solution
or advice provided by it. Normally, expert systems justify their answers or advice by
explaining their reasoning. If a system is a rule based system, it provides to the user all
the rules and facts it has used to achieve its answer.

10) Explaining capability: Expert systems are capable of explaining how a particular
conclusion was reached and why requested information is needed during a consultation.
This is very important as it gives the user a chance to access and understand the system’s
reasoning ability, thereby improving the user’s confidence in the system.

11) Special Programming Languages: Expert systems are typically written in special
programming languages. The use of languages like LISP and PROLOG in the
development of an expert system simplifies the coding process. The major advantage of
 these languages, as compared to conventional programming languages is the simplicity of
the addition, elimination or substitution of new rules and memory management
capabilities. Some of the distinguishing characteristics of programming languages needed
for expert system work are as follows:

2.11 Advantages of Using Expert System

An expert system has been reliably used in the business world to gain tactical advantages and
forecast the market’s condition. In this globalization era where every decision made in the
business world is critical for success; the assistance provided from an expert system is
undoubtedly essential and highly reliable for an organization to succeed.

Examples given below will be the advantages for the implementation of an expert system in
business:

2.11.1 Providing consistent solutions

It can provide consistent answers for repetitive decisions, processes, and tasks. As long as the
rule base in the system remains the same, regardless of how many times similar problems are
being tested, the conclusions drawn will remain the same.

2.11.2 Provides Reasonable Explanations

It can clarify the reasons why the conclusion was drawn and be why it considers as the most
logical choice among other alternatives. If there are any doubts in concluding a certain problem;
it will prompt some questions for users to answer to process the logical conclusion.

2.11.3 Overcome human limitations

It does not have human limitations and can work around the clock continuously. Users will be
able to frequently use it in seeking solutions. The knowledge of experts is an invaluable asset for
the company. It can store the knowledge and use it as long as the organization needs it.

2.11.4 Easy to adapt to new conditions

Unlike humans who often have trouble adapting to new environments, an expert system has high
adaptability and can meet new requirements in a short period. It also can capture new knowledge
from an expert and use it as inference rules to solve new problems.

2.12 Disadvantages of Using Expert System

Although the expert system does provide many significant advantages, it does have its
drawbacks as well.

Examples given below will be the disadvantages for the implementation of an expert system in
business:

2.12.1 Lacks common sense

It lacks common sense needed in some decision making since all the decisions made base on the
inference rules set in the system. It also cannot make creative and innovative responses as human
experts would in unusual circumstances.

2.12.1 High implementation and maintenance cost

The implementation of an expert system in business will be a financial burden for smaller
organizations since it has high development costs as well as the subsequent recurring costs to
upgrade the system to adapt to the new environment.

2.12.3 Difficulty in creating inference rules

Domain experts will not be able to always explain their logic and reasoning needed for the
knowledge engineering process. Hence, the task of codifying out knowledge is highly complex
and may require high

2.12.4 May provide wrong solutions

It is not error-free. There may error occur in the processing due to some logical mistakes made in
the knowledge base, which will then provide the wrong solutions.

2.13 CORONA VIRUS

Updated: Apr 19, 2021

Author: David J Cennimo, MD, FAAP, FACP, AAHIVS; Chief Editor: Michael Stuart Bronze,
MD more...

References

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is defined as illness caused by a novel coronavirus called
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; formerly called 2019-nCoV),
which was first identified amid an outbreak of respiratory illness cases in Wuhan City, Hubei
Province, China. [1] It was initially reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on
December 31, 2019. On January 30, 2020, the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global
health emergency. [2, 3] On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic,
its first such designation since declaring H1N1 influenza a pandemic in 2009. [4]

Illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 was termed COVID-19 by the WHO, the acronym derived from
"coronavirus disease 2019." The name was chosen to avoid stigmatizing the virus's origins in
terms of populations, geography, or animal associations. [5, 6] On February 11, 2020, the
Coronavirus Study Group of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses issued a
statement announcing an official designation for the novel virus: severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). [7]

Symptoms
Signs and symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may appear two to 14 days after
exposure. This time after exposure and before having symptoms is called the incubation period.
Common signs and symptoms can include:

Fever

Cough

Tiredness

Early symptoms of COVID-19 may include a loss of taste or smell.

Other symptoms can include:

Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing

Muscle aches

Chills

Sore throat

Runny nose

Headache

Chest pain

Pink eye (conjunctivitis)

Nausea

Vomiting

Diarrhea
Rash

This list is not all inclusive. Children have similar symptoms to adults and generally have mild
illness.

The severity of COVID-19 symptoms can range from very mild to severe. Some people may
have only a few symptoms, and some people may have no symptoms at all. Some people may
experience worsened symptoms, such as worsened shortness of breath and pneumonia, about a
week after symptoms start.

People who are older have a higher risk of serious illness from COVID-19, and the risk increases
with age. People who have existing medical conditions also may have a higher risk of serious
illness. Certain medical conditions that may increase the risk of serious illness from COVID-19
include:

Serious heart diseases, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease or cardiomyopathy

Cancer

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

Type 1 or type 2 diabetes

Overweight, obesity or severe obesity

High blood pressure

Smoking

Chronic kidney disease

Sickle cell disease or thalassemia

Weakened immune system from solid organ transplants

Pregnancy

Asthma

Chronic lung diseases such as cystic fibrosis or pulmonary fibrosis

Liver disease

Dementia

Down syndrome

Weakened immune system from bone marrow transplant, HIV or some medications

Brain and nervous system conditions

Substance use disorders

How Does Coronavirus Spread?

With cases of the new coronavirus reported in all 50 states, health officials are focused on
slowing the spread. By understanding how coronavirus spreads, you can take the right steps so
you don't get sick and infect others.

Person-to-Person Transmission

Experts believe the virus that causes COVID-19 spreads mainly from person to person. There are
several ways this can happen:

Droplets or aerosols. When an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks, droplets or tiny particles
called aerosols carry the virus into the air from their nose or mouth. Anyone who is within 6 feet
of that person can breathe it into their lungs.
Airborne transmission. Research shows that the virus can live in the air for up to 3 hours. It can
get into your lungs if someone who has it breathes out and you breathe that air in. Experts are
divided on how often the virus spreads through the airborne route and how much it contributes to
the pandemic.

Surface transmission. Another way to catch the new coronavirus is when you touch surfaces that
someone who has the virus has coughed or sneezed on. You may touch a countertop or doorknob
that's contaminated and then touch your nose, mouth, or eyes. The virus can live on surfaces like
plastic and stainless steel for 2 to 3 days. To stop it, clean and disinfect all counters, knobs, and
other surfaces you and your family touch several times a day.

Fecal-oral. Studies also suggest that virus particles can be found in infected people's poop. But
experts aren't sure whether the infection can spread through contact with an infected person's
stool. If that person uses the bathroom and doesn't wash their hands, they could infect things and
people that they touch.

The virus most often spreads through people who have symptoms. But it is possible to pass it on
without showing any signs. Some people who don't know they've been infected can give it to
others. This is called asymptomatic spread. You can also pass it on before you notice any signs
of infection, called presymptomatic spread.

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Community Spread

Sometimes, a person can trace how they got the virus because they know that they've been in
contact with someone who's sick. In other cases, the cause is unknown. Community spread is
when someone gets the virus without any known contact with a sick person.

Pets and COVID-19

A few pets have tested positive for the new coronavirus. Not all of these animals had signs of
illness, but some have had mild symptoms. The animals may have caught the virus from close
contact with humans who were infected.

Public health officials say they are still studying COVID-19 but that there’s no evidence that pets
play a role in its spread.