UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA

FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS

DEPARTEMEN MANAJEMEN
PROGRAM STUDI S1

MIDTERM EXAM
EVEN SEMESTER ACADEMIC YEAR 2019—2020
MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING

Course : Management Decision Making

Program : S1 Regular Management
Lecturer/Tutor : Lecturer Team/Tutor Team
Day, Date : Saturday, April 4th, 2020
Time : 180 minutes (3 hours); 18.30 – 21.30
Exam Type : Open Books

In the emergency of COVID-19 outbreak, the midterm exam will be held online. The lecturer team
has faith that all of you will work independently in completing the midterm exam. Follow all the
instructions below:

General guidelines:
1. Students are obliged to fill out Academic Honesty Declaration/ Surat Pernyataan
Kejujuran Akademik (as attached). You can use digital signature/photo of your signature.
2. Please make sure that you have a good internet connection to ensure answers are sent
via email or other media according to mutual agreement:
• For Fajar Ayu’s class : Sent it to EMAS at session MidTermExam, and also via email
to fapinagara@gmail.com
• Answers are collected no later than Saturday, April 4th, 2020 at 21.45 (late
collection will not be assessed)
3. The examination time is 3 hours (18.30-21.30) with an additional 15 minutes for sending
answers via e-mail / EMAS (Delay in sending answers will be subject to a penalty and
even disqualified).

Specific Guidelines:
1. The answer should be hand-written (make sure it is readable) on a sheet of paper(s) (A4).
2. Write clearly your name and NPM on each sheet/page.
3. All of the answer sheets should be photographed/scanned using applications such as
Camscanner , and convert it into PDF. Put all sheets in 1 file PDF with the file name:
UTS_Name_PKM_NPM example: UTS_FajarAyu_PKM_123456
4. The answer sheet (1 pdf) and academic honesty declaration (1 pdf) should be sent to EMAS
at session MidTermExam, and also via email to fapinagara@gmail.com. Make sure the
email has been sent (check in the sent folder and photo / print screen as a proof- for later
purpose)
5. Goodluck with your TEST and don’t forget to PRAY!

Universitas Indonesia pg. 1

Question 1 (20%)
The Chronology of Power Outage in Half of Java Island
Jakarta - Electricity in half of the island of Java goes out. This condition occurs in Greater Jakarta,
parts of West Java and Central Java. This happened at 11.48 WIB, Sunday (4/8). Conditions
gradually recovered starting at 16:27 WIB yesterday. Outages occur due to interference on the
transmission side Ungaran and Pemalang 500 kV. That resulted in the energy transfer from east
to west failed and was followed by disruptions in all power plants on the central and western
sides of Java.

Chronology
Acting Managing Director of PT PLN Sripeni Inten Cahyani revealed the chronology of
the mass power outages in parts of Java. She explained that the problem began at 11:45 WIB
yesterday. She said, at the 27th second of 11:45 WIB, an extra-high voltage line from Ungaran-
Pemalang was disturbed, precisely in circuit one followed by the second circuit so that both of
them experienced interference.
"As a result, the voltage drops. So at 11.48, 11 second the Depok-Tasik high voltage air
channel network was interrupted. This was the beginning of the blackout in the West Java, Banten
and DKI Jakarta systems," She said in a press conference at the PLN Regulatory Central Office
Burden (P2B) Gandul, Depok, West Java, Sunday (4/8/2019).
At 11:45 WIB, 27 second, electricity in Central Java, East Java and Bali was normal. Only
Brebes began to die out, because it is part of the West Java system. "So, 11:45 WIB, East Java, Bali
are safe, Central Java is safe. At 11:48 WIB, West Java, DKI Jakarta, and Banten are blackout," she
said. Today, Monday (5/8), PLN ensures that the condition has recovered 100%

Customer Compensation?
PLN customers also demanded compensation. So will PLN provide the compensation.
Strategic Procurement Director 2 Djoko Raharjo Abumanan explained that he had to make
calculations within a month to find out whether PLN customers were entitled to compensation.
"Later there it will be calculated, there are rules. It won’t be certain yet (whether there will be
compensation). The rules states it needs a month," he said at the Gandul Load Center (P2B) PLN
Office, Depok, West Java, Sunday (4/8/2019).
Within a month, PLN will measure the Service Quality Level (TMP) to conclude
compensation will be given or not. It refers to the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and
Mineral Resources (ESDM Ministerial Regulation) Number 27 of 2017 concerning the Level of

Universitas Indonesia pg. 2

Service Quality and Costs Related to Electric Power Distribution by PT PLN (Persero). Indicators
seen as compensation considerations are the duration of the disturbance as well as the amount
of the disturbance. Compensation provided is in the form of reduced electricity bills to consumers.
This compensation will varies, for 35% of the cost of the burden or the minimum
account for consumers in the tariff group that is subject to an electric power tariff adjustment.
Next 20% compensation for consumers in the tariff group that is not subject to electricity tariff
adjustments aka subsidized customers

PLN also Suffers Loss

PT PLN calculates a potential loss of Rp 90 billion due to mass power outages in parts
of Java today. Strategic Procurement Director 2 Djoko Raharjo Abumanan explained the
estimated electricity needs on holidays for customers in Jabodetabek, Banten and West Java is at
22,000 Megawatts (MW). These needs can be supplied as much as 13,000 MW from all power
plants in Greater Jakarta, West Java and Banten. Of that amount, there is a difference of 9,000 MW
which is a potential lost per hour.
"It means that it has lost 9,000 MW. Say there will be 10 hours loss. Multiplied by Rp.
1,000 (KwH). The average (electricity tariff) is Rp. 1,000 per kWh. But that is the loss of
Megawatts," he said at the PLN Office of Regulatory Expenses (P2B) Gandul, Depok, West Java,
Sunday (4/8/2019). This 9,000 MW power is multiplied by 10 hours, which is 90,000 MW. If it is
assumed like that, then the power can then be multiplied by the tariff per MW, which is on average
Rp. 1 million. "Yes, Rp. 90 billion is a minimum lost, a loss. The lost hasn't include if there is
compensation," he added.
Source : https://finance.detik.com/energi/d-4652136/kronologi-mati-lampu-di-separuh-
pulau-jawa/2

Draws the Fishbone Diagram of the above problems!

Question 2 (20%)
Enak Restaurant is in the process of expanding. As a restaurant owner, you are given
several alternatives regarding expansion locations, namely: Jakarta, Surabaya and Bandung. In
making a decision, you are also given historical data from competitor restaurants regarding
Return on Investment from each location along with factors that can influence the success of the
expansion.
Question:
a. Based on the above illustration, what kind of decision making environment are faced by
the restaurant owners? Gives your reason!

Universitas Indonesia pg. 3

 b. Create a payoff matrix which can describe the above situation!

Question 3 (20%)
PT. Nix & Young has three strategic choices, namely market development in
neighboring countries or doing product development by updating the main product features to
the latest version or doing market penetration, namely increasing advertising on its main
product. Market development will succeed if the market research department states that there is
a large target segment (70%) in neighboring countries, and market development will not be
carried out if the target segment is small (30%). Conversely, if a company enters a new market,
the domestic market will potentially be taken by competitor companies. Therefore, not targeting
a new market is an opportunity loss.
BOD hired an international consultant to find out more about the target segment in a
neighboring country and said that it would not make a decision before knowing the results of the
consultant's recommendation to enter or not enter the neighboring market. The cost of the
international consultant is Rp. 200 million.
Below is the payoff matrix of the above case:
Decision Big New Segment Small New Segment
Market Development 700.000.000 -500.000.000
Product Development -300.000.000 700.000.000
Market Penetration 200.000.000 400.000.000
With joint probability as stated:
Enter Not Enter
Big New Segment P (E| B) = 0.80 P (NE | B) = 0.20
Small New Segment P (E | S)= 0.10 P (NE | S) = 0.90

Determine whether PT. Nix & Young should use the data from the international consultant or not,
with decision tree.

Question 4 (20%)
PT. Kudu Production anticipates that there will be an increase in demand for RickRack
products thereby increasing its production targets. The provision of RickRack at this time is still
difficult to determine as it is still a trial and error approach. For each RickRack production, 2-3
units of A material are required, depending on the rate of spoiled product.
Material A can be purchased domestically only from agent X with the same days term
so that it can be produced in Just In Time. But domestic prices are 150% more expensive than CIF

Universitas Indonesia pg. 4

prices from Taiwan. In addition, shipping from Taiwan depends on the weather since the
shipment must pass the sea.
[Hint: You are expected not to use the EOQ formula or Reorder Point used in Inventory
Management when answering this question]
a) Using all of the above information, make a basic logic of the amount of inventory that
must be stocked so that production can keep up with sales. You may use assumptions if
necessary, provided they are realistic and reasonable.

b) From that basic logic determine which variables are stochastic and deterministic

c) On the basis of answers a and b, make the stochastic function of the inventory needed by
PT. Kudu Production

Question 5 (20%)
In a country called Ojeknesia, there are two transportation service providers that go
hand in hand, namely Gerap and Groject. Gerap and Groject have the choice to give a discount on
the product or not. If Gerap gives a discount then Gerap will get a profit of 20 million and Groject
will get a loss of 5 million. If Groject gives a discount then Groject will get a profit of 20 million
and Gerap will get a loss of 8 million. If it turns out that both companies provide discounts then
their respective benefits amounted to 5 million. If both do not give a discount then they will get a
profit of 18 million.
a. Explain the decision making model of the above case!

b. Draws the pay-off table of the above case!

c. Which decision is likely to be taken by each company?

Universitas Indonesia pg. 5

Appendix

INTEGRITY STATEMENT

In this Managerial Decision-Making (Pengambilan Keputusan Manajemen) MIDTERM

exam,
Name :
NPM :

I honestly state that:

1. I do not accept and / or do not provide assistances in any form to other students in doing
exam questions.
2. I do not plagiarize other people's work and recognize it as my job
3. I understand that all acts of fraud will be punished according to the academic rules that
apply to the Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia

Depok, 04 / 04 / 2020

(.…………..)

Universitas Indonesia pg. 6