Global Population and Mobility

Mortality and Fertility

By: Prof. Rene P. Zubieto

Learning Objectives:
At the end of the chapter, students are expected to be able to:
1. Discuss and describe the importance of global population in understanding the
contemporary world.
2. Relate and analyze the contribution of mortality and fertility to the global
population.
3. Value the political, economic, cultural, health and social factors underlying the
global movements of people.

Introduction

Human population grew rapidly during the Industrial Revolution, not because the birth rate
increased, but because the death rate began to fall. This mortality revolution began in the 1700s in
Europe and spread to North America by the mid-1800s. Death rates fell as new farming and
transportation technology expanded the food supply and lessened the danger of famine. New
technologies and increasing industrialization improved public health and living standards. Late in the
19th century, birth rates also began to fall in Europe and North America, slowing the population
growth that had resulted from continued moderately higher birth rates than death rates.

Since 1900, both birth and death rates in the more developed countries have continued to
fall in tandem, with a few interruptions. A worldwide influenza pandemic in 1918 caused the death of
between 20 million and 40 million people and produced a temporary increase in the death rate. A
slight increase in birth rates occurred after World Wars I and II. Since the 1950s, birth rates have
continued their decline, while death rates declined into the 1960s but have been slowly increasing
since. In some European countries, declining birth rates and an increase in death rates are
contributing to declining population size. The total fertility rate (TFR) in many more-developed
countries is well below replacement levels of two children per couple.

Mortality and Fertility: Components of Population Change

Fertility, mortality and migration are principal determinants of population growth (or its
inverse). In the absence of technological intervention, one might say almost the sole determinants,
but improvements in contraceptive techniques, increasing acceptance of abortion, and slackening of
some traditional religious and cultural traditions has in many parts of the world reduced the role of
fertility.

IMPORTANT TERMS TO REMEMBER:

(Reference: prb.org/humanpopulation/)

Age-sex structure: The composition of a population as determined by the number or proportion of

males and females in each age category. The age-sex structure of a population is the cumulative
result of past trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. Information on age-sex composition is
essential for the description and analysis of many other types of demographic data.

Baby boom: A dramatic increase in fertility rates and in the absolute number of births. In the United
States this occurred during the period following World War II (1946 to 1964).

Birth rate (or crude birth rate): The number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year. Not
to be confused with the growth rate.

Mortality and Fertility – by: Prof. Rene P. Zubieto (2020) Page 1 of 4

Death rate (or crude death rate): The number of deaths per 1,000 population in a given year.

Growth rate: The number of persons added to (or subtracted from) a population in a year due to
natural increase and net migration; expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of
the time period.

Less developed countries: Less developed countries include all countries in Africa, Asia (excluding
Japan), and Latin America and the Caribbean, and the regions of Melanesia, Micronesia, and
Polynesia.

Life expectancy: The average number of additional years a person of a given age could expect to
live if current mortality trends were to continue for the rest of that person’s life. Most commonly cited
as life expectancy at birth.

More developed countries: More developed countries include all countries in Europe, North
America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.

Mortality: Deaths as a component of population change.

Net migration: The net effect of immigration and emigration on an area’s population in a given time
period, expressed as an increase or decrease.

Population pyramid: A bar chart, arranged vertically, that shows the distribution of a population by
age and sex. By convention, the younger ages are at the bottom, with males on the left and females
on the right.

Rate of natural increase: The rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given
year due to a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths, expressed as a percentage of the base
population.

Zero population growth: A population in equilibrium, with a growth rate of zero, achieved when
births plus immigration equal deaths plus emigration. Zero growth is not to be confused with
replacement level fertility.

Fertility

The human female is generally fertile from early teens to about mid-forties. The human male
generally remains fertile throughout adulthood, though sperm count and quality diminish from middle-
age onward. In the absence of a conscious effort to control the size of families, the larger the fraction
of the population who are in the fertile age range the more rapid will be the population growth, and
this will influence the average age of the population structure towards the younger end of the
spectrum. [For visual appreciation - (Click: https://www.populationpyramid.net/ ) ]

In terms of populations rather than

individuals, fertility is usually expressed
using the proxy measure of birth rate,
either crude or standardised for age and
sex. Worldwide, there are significant
differences between birth rates. A major
study in the 1980s, carried out by the
Population Division of the Department of
International Economic and Social Affairs
of the UN Secretariat, studied the
relationship between population age and
sex distribution and crude fertility rates for
twenty one countries in the developing
world. They concluded the higher the
birthrate the more markedly the birthrate
is depressed by the age structure. All
other things being equal, fertility should

Mortality and Fertility – by: Prof. Rene P. Zubieto (2020) Page 2 of 4

 Population of Cities with 10 million inhabitants or
decline more rapidly in the countries where it is more, 1950, 2007 and 2025
currently lowest since the age structure appears to
favor such a course. The mean number of children ever
born also ranged widely among the twenty one
countries. Differences in completed family size range
from 8.6 children in Jordan to 5.2 children in Indonesia.
In the developed world, though, there is a global
tendency for family sizes on average to be smaller than
the replacement level. The “replacement level of
fertility” is the number that causes a country’s
population to slow down and eventually stabilize.

Mortality

The effect of mortality on population structures

is to reduce the component of the population in which
the mortality occurs. Historically, the most dangerous
ages were infancy and old age (variously reckoned
according to circumstances). In addition, some
epidemics of infectious diseases (e.g. Covid-19) had
their highest mortality among young adults, whose
immune systems were presumably insufficiently
primed. It is expected that the forecast bird 'flu
epidemic’ will behave similarly. War differentially
reduces the proportion of younger men. The majority of
infectious diseases of early childhood have been
reduced by immunisation, and improved nutrition and
hygiene have rendered childhood safer. Antibiotics,
welfare state, and improvements in medical, surgical,
and palliative care have resulted in great increases in
life expectancy in the developed world, where life
expectancy is now in the middle to upper 70s or lower 80s, and rising every year. The effect of this
is to raise the population in the upper age groups substantially. Women have higher life expectancy
than men wherever they live. The tendency of people to retire to particular resorts means that in
some parts of the South Coast of England the average (arithmetic mean) age of the population is
only just below retirement age.

The down side of this is that the extended lives are often lived in bad health, as the treatments
people receive may keep them alive but do little to ameliorate the underlying pain or disability brought
on by the diseases, and virtually nothing for the various forms of senile dementia that are increasingly
encountered.

Mortality and Fertility – by: Prof. Rene P. Zubieto (2020) Page 3 of 4

Suggested Activity: Group Processing and Writing Exercise (50-points Rubric Assessment)

1. Choose one (1) of any of the two articles below:

a. “The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics After a Natural

Disaster”
https://d.docs.live.net/422aa362ba7a5008/Documents/GEC04%20The%20Cont
emporary%20World/2020_Effect%20of%20Mortality%20on%20Fertility.pdf

b. Department of Health: Mortality

https://d.docs.live.net/422aa362ba7a5008/Documents/GEC04%20The%20Cont
emporary%20World/Mortality%20_%20Department%20of%20Health%20websit
e.html

2. Form a group of 5 members in a team and discuss about the article of your choice. The
group must only discuss an article as agreed upon by the majority. Notify the instructor about
the names of your members, so that s/he can monitor the group membership in the class.

3. Facilitate a small – group discussion online, and discuss the following guide questions:

a. What important highlights have you learned in the article about mortality? Identify two
important points.
b. What significant insights can you draw from the recommendations or reports by the
authors/ researchers? Enumerate these in your own words.

4. Summarize by writing a 2-3 pages report based on the groups’ discussion on the article.
Follow the prescribed content and format:
a. Title of the article
b. Introduction (Write a brief introduction relative to the article and its contribution to fertility and
mortality.)
c. Summary (Write the highlight of the group’s discussion based on the guide questions.)
d. Conclusion (Composed a short paragraph on the topic you discussed based on the
formulated summary.)
e. Observe the format – 11 Arial font style, 1.5 pages, one inch margins on all sides.
f. Observe proper citation in any reference material you used (if there’s any).

Rubric Assessment:

Organization of ideas (Relevance of ideas presented, well-researched

ideas/ thoughts, good discussion points) 30 points
Composition skills (Clarity, use of medium, grammar, and format) 15 points
Cooperation and teamwork (Working relationship, shared 5 points
involvement, delegated tasks)
Total Score 50 points

References:

Brazalote,T.C. and Leonardo,R.M. (2019). The Contemporary World. Quezon,City: C&E Publishing
Inc.

Department of Health website.

http://www.populationpyramid.net/

prb.org/ human population/

San Juan, D.M.M. (2018). Journeys through our Contemporary World. Manila: Vibal Group, Inc.

Mortality and Fertility – by: Prof. Rene P. Zubieto (2020) Page 4 of 4