TAURUS

Taurus Securities Limited SECURITIES LIMITED

A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Weekly Market Update

Week ending April 30, 2021
KSE-100 44,262 down 1%WoW
Top 10 Positive Contributors (WoW) Top 10 Negative Contributors (WoW)
Symbol 23-Apr-21 30-Apr-21 Points Symbol 23-Apr-21 30-Apr-21 Points
HBL 122.05 124.85 48 TRG 176.17 168.62 (82)
BAHL 64.04 66.17 36 MCB 168.96 162.22 (65)
FFC 103.23 105.33 34 PAKT 1538.00 1349.98 (55)
COLG 2590.01 2800.00 31 NBP 36.14 32.86 (39)
UBL 124.06 126.21 24 INIL 211.88 193.80 (31)
ANL 32.51 34.39 16 SYS 438.11 423.65 (27)
ICI 809.95 858.31 16 ENGRO 299.59 295.99 (27)
SCBPL 30.69 33.97 15 DGKC 115.80 110.63 (26)
EFERT 65.97 66.98 14 EPCL 52.65 49.33 (25)
FML 96.55 107.00 14 HMB 39.75 37.83 (21) Taurus Research
Source: PSX & TSL Research Source: PSX & TSL Research +92 21 35216403
UAN: 111-828-787
research@taurus.com.pk
Taurus research is available on Bloomberg under TAUR & on Capital IQ
Date of Publication: April 30, 2021

www.JamaPunji.pk
 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

KSE 100-Index down 1%WoW (-444 points)

Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update

Weekly Performance
Market Performance for the week
Volume Mn (LHS) KSE-100
Index 23-Apr-21 30-Apr-21 Change % 46,000 500
KSE - 100 44,707 44,262 -1.0% 45,500 400
KSE - 30 18,276 18,101 -1.0% 409
45,000 367 300
KSE - All Share 30,294 30,018 -0.9% 306 294
280
YTD Performance 44,500 200

Index 31-Dec-20 30-Apr-21 Change % 44,000 100

KSE - 100 43,755 44,262 1.2%
43,500 0
KSE - 30 18,180 18,101 -0.4% Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri
KSE - All Share 30,780 30,018 -2.5% Source: PSX & TSL Research
Source: PSX & TSL Research
CY21TD Sector-wise return
42% 35%
Economic Bulletin: 37%
32%
+ Fitch forecasts Pakistan’s GDP growth rate at 2.3% in FY21. 27%
22%
+ Pakistan’s Fiscal deficit stands at 3.5% in 8MFY21. 17% 11% 10%
12%
+ The Government has purchased 15.4Mn doses of vaccine. 7% 2% 1%
2%
+ Repayment to UAE & Japan of USD 2Bn & USD 367Mn deferred. -3%
-1% -2%

Eng.
Power

E&Ps
Cement

Insurance
Refinery
Tech.

Chemical

Food
Pharma
OMCs
Textiles

Autos

Tobacco
Banks
Fertilizer
+ Pakistan Foreign Exchange reserve increased to USD 23.5Bn.
+ Inflation to remain in 8-9.5% range in Apr’21: MoF.
Source: PSX & TSL Research
+ Pakistan Consumer Confidence Index decreases by 10.5% in 1QCY21.

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Sector Updates
Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update

E&Ps: - Neutral Construction Materials: - Positive

 Oil prices slipped on Friday, taking a breather after  Housing and construction loans increased 36% or PKR
touching their highest in six weeks as economic recovery 54Bn during 9MFY21.
and bullish summer fuel demand outlook outweighed
Autos: - Positive
concerns of wider lockdowns in India and Brazil to curb
the COVID-19 pandemic.  PM Imran Khan has unveiled the Roshan Car Scheme to
facilitate overseas Pakistanis from different countries. This
Power: - Neutral
will also push the auto sales of the local brands in the
 Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin deferred taking a decision future, attracting investment while enhancing the
on two crucial agenda items — payments to independent production capacity of the existing units.
power producers (IPPs) and how to go ahead with subsidy
 Master Changan Motors (MCM) has started testing
on LNG supplies to export industries.
autonomous cars in Pakistan.
 The financial close for 1263 MW re-gasified liquefied
Fertilizers: - Positive
natural gas (RLNG) based Punjab Thermal Power Ltd
(PTPL) has been achieved.  Urea off-take during IQCY21 swelled 37%YoY to 1.4Mn
tones from 1.1Mn tones.
 NEPRA has approved a reduction of up to PKR 0.68 per
unit in tariffs of Distribution Companies (Discos) on
account of fuel charges adjustment for the month of March
2021.
Pharmaceuticals: - Positive
 Exports of pharmaceutical products increased by
24.76%YoY during 9MFY21.

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Major company announcements

Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update

 ILP: Interloop Limited (ILP) has formulated its Vision 2025. The board has accordingly approved the ‘Vision 2025 statement’ which
reads as ‘to become a full family clothing partner of choice’.
 ASTL: We are pleased to inform you that we have successfully commenced the commercial operation of a green field renewable 4.43
MWp PV Solar Power Plant at our production facility situated at Dhabeji.
 TOMCL: The Organic Meat Company Limited (TOMCL) has exported its first sample shipment of offals to be used in pet foods to the
US market.
 KEL: Shaukat Tarin has said the Government was ready to extend all possible support to the K-Electric (KE) for overcoming
constraints and making it dynamic and sustainable in the long-run.
 BAFL & SILK: Silkbank Ltd’s consumer finance portfolio appears to be attracting a lot of interest from other banks these days with
Bank Alfalah (BAFL) joining the race for the acquisition of SBL’s personal loans, running finance and credit card business on Monday.
 TELE: The Directors of have authorized the Company to explore the option for listing of its subsidiary Supernet Limited.
 PKGS: The Directors have approved formation of a wholly owned local subsidiary, which will be engaged in the business of
manufacturing and distributing corn-based starch and its derivative products subject to all applicable regulatory approvals.
 DYNO: The Directors of have approved Debottlenecking Project which resultantly will increase the existing production capacity of
Formaldehyde Plant and Moulding Compound Plant by 9% and 25% respectively.
 MLCF: The Consortium of banks has established Letters of Credit for import of equipment and engineering for a dry process clinker
production line-4 of 7,000 metric tons per day grey clinker, through a brown field expansion project from plant supplier in China.
This will bring MLCF’s grey clinker production capacity to 25,500 metric tons per day at the existing plant site in Iskanderabad
District Miamwali. The project is expected to commence production in August 2022.

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Value Traded and Volumes

Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update
12 Months Average Value Traded (PKR Bn) 12 Months Average Volume Traded (PKR Mn)
Value PKR Bn (RHS) KSE-100 Close Volume Mn (RHS) KSE-100 Close
50,000 26.1 30 50,000 800
603 623
22.2 25 622
40,000 21.4 23.0 40,000
600
20.0 522
18.3 20 493
30,000 14.7 16.3 30,000 440
14.0 380 404
15 354 400
20,000 10.1 20,000 206 197 276
7.0 7.0 10
200
10,000 5 10,000

0 0 0 0
May'2 0 Jul'2 0 Sep'2 0 Nov'20 Jan'21 Mar'21 May'2 0 Jul'2 0 Sep'2 0 Nov'20 Jan'21 Mar'21
Source: PSX & TSL Research Source: PSX & TSL Research

12 Weeks Average Value Traded (PKR Bn) 12 Weeks Average Volume Traded (Mn)

47,000 Value PKR Bn (RHS) KSE-100 Close 45 Volume Mn (RHS) KSE-100 Close
47,000 900
46,000 35 734
23.8 23.7 46,000 589 700
25.3 595 564
26.8 25.2 22.5 580 410
45,000 20.4 20.4 16.9 25 483 333
18.6 15.2 45,000 377 368 500
386 331
14.8
44,000 15 44,000 300
43,000 5 43,000 100
42,000 (5) 42,000 (100)
12-Feb-21 26-Feb-21 12-Mar-21 26-Mar-21 9-Apr-21 23-Apr-21 12-Feb-21 26-Feb-21 12-Mar-21 26-Mar-21 9-Apr-21 23-Apr-21
Source: PSX & TSL Research Source: PSX & TSL Research
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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

KSE 100-Index Points Contribution

Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update
YTD Points Contribution to KSE-100 Index by major sectors
1000 915

435
500
87 73 51 37 29 28
0
-18 -19 -25 -33 -76 -85 -86 -99
-500
Tech. Cement E&Ps Power Chemical Textile Fertilizer Refinery Eng. Insurance Banks Autos Foods OMCs Pharma Tobacco
Source: PSX & TSL Research

Top 10 Positive Contributors (WoW) Top 10 Negative Contributors (WoW)

Symbol 23-Apr-21 30-Apr-21 Points Symbol 23-Apr-21 30-Apr-21 Points
HBL 122.05 124.85 48 TRG 176.17 168.62 (82)
BAHL 64.04 66.17 36 MCB 168.96 162.22 (65)
FFC 103.23 105.33 34 PAKT 1538.00 1349.98 (55)
COLG 2590.01 2800.00 31 NBP 36.14 32.86 (39)
UBL 124.06 126.21 24 INIL 211.88 193.80 (31)
ANL 32.51 34.39 16 SYS 438.11 423.65 (27)
ICI 809.95 858.31 16 ENGRO 299.59 295.99 (27)
SCBPL 30.69 33.97 15 DGKC 115.80 110.63 (26)
EFERT 65.97 66.98 14 EPCL 52.65 49.33 (25)
FML 96.55 107.00 14 HMB 39.75 37.83 (21)
Source: PSX & TSL Research Source: PSX & TSL Research

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Outperformers and Underperformers

Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update
Top 10 YTD Outperformers & Underperformers
84%
100% 61%
40% 33% 28%
50% 20% 20% 20% 18% 14%
0%
-50% -28% -26% -25% -24% -24% -24%
-46% -40% -36% -35%
-100%
TRG NRL KAPCO GATM IBFL ANL LUCK ATRL PIOC MARI SHEL HASCOL SRVI GHGL YOUW PIBTL IGIHL PAEL CEPB NBP

Source: PSX & TSL Research

Top 10 Outperformers (WoW) Top 10 Underperformers (WoW)

Symbol 23-Apr-21 30-Apr-21 Return (%) Symbol 23-Apr-21 30-Apr-21 Return (%)
IBFL 126 159 26% PSMC 290 253 -13%
FML 97 107 11% PAKT 1538 1350 -12%
SCBPL 31 34 11% NBP 36 33 -9%
COLG 2590 2800 8% INIL 212 194 -9%
ILP 61 65 6% LOTCHEM 15 14 -8%
FCEPL 72 76 6% SRVI 582 538 -8%
ICI 810 858 6% ATRL 236 219 -7%
AGIL 230 244 6% FFBL 27 25 -7%
ANL 33 34 6% PAEL 33 30 -7%
ARPL 558 583 5% EPCL 53 49 -6%
Source: PSX & TSL Research Source: PSX & TSL Research

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Foreign portfolio investment for the week

Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update
Weekly Portfolio Flows - FIPI vs LIPI (USD Mn)
FIPI LIPI
Sectors
Gross Buy Gross Sell Net. Banks Broker Comp. Indivi. Funds NBFC Others Insur. Net.
Cement 3.61 (4.99) (1.38) 0.68 0.27 (2.69) 0.61 2.68 (0.01) 0.03 (0.19) 1.38
Banks 4.79 (9.65) (4.86) (0.45) (0.43) (2.69) (2.61) 1.05 (0.02) 13.77 (3.79) 4.84
Technology 17.28 (18.74) (1.46) (1.69) (0.68) 0.74 (0.60) 3.12 0.01 0.10 0.47 1.47
Textile 0.92 (1.09) (0.17) 0.07 0.05 (0.05) (0.91) 0.65 0.00 0.09 0.28 0.17
Fertlizer 2.05 (3.49) (1.45) (1.37) 0.02 0.35 (0.17) 1.26 (0.02) 0.68 0.71 1.45
Others 14.73 (15.14) (0.41) (0.56) 0.06 (0.02) (2.92) 1.25 (0.05) 0.76 1.91 0.42
OMC 1.83 (2.46) (0.63) (0.20) 0.81 0.01 (0.33) 1.06 0.00 0.00 (0.73) 0.64
E&P 2.09 (3.27) (1.19) (0.40) 0.14 0.74 1.27 1.13 0.03 (0.02) (1.70) 1.19
Power 0.75 (1.90) (1.14) (0.76) 0.16 0.40 (0.07) 1.02 0.00 0.38 0.01 1.14
Food 1.95 (2.40) (0.45) (0.60) 0.60 0.37 (0.55) 0.12 (0.00) 0.30 0.21 0.45
Total 50.00 (63.14) (13.14) (5.29) 1.00 (2.85) (6.28) 13.35 (0.05) 16.09 (2.83) 13.14
Source: NCCPL & TSL Research

 Foreigners (including overseas Pakistanis) were net sellers of USD 13.14Mn worth of shares.

 Others were the biggest buyers on the local front followed by Mutual Funds.

 Individuals were the major sellers followed by Banks.

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Local portfolio investment flows for the week

Friday, April 30, 2021
Weekly Market Update
Mutual Fund activity for the week (USD Mn) Insurance activity for the week (USD Mn)
3.50 3.1 3.00
1.9
3.00 2.7 2.00
0.7 0.5
2.50 1.00 0.3 0.2 0.0
0.00
2.00
-1.00 (0.2)
1.50 1.3 1.2 (0.7)
1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 -2.00
(1.7)
1.00 0.7 -3.00
0.50 0.1 -4.00
(3.8)
0.00 -5.00
Tech. CementFertilizers Others E&Ps OMCs Banks Power Textile Foods Others Fertilizers Tech. Textile Foods Power Cement OMCs E&Ps Banks
Source: NCCPL & Research Source: NCCPL & TSL Research

Individuals activity for the week (USD Mn) Banks/DFIs activity for the week (USD Mn)
2.00 1.00 0.7
1.3
1.00 0.6 0.50
0.1
0.00 0.00
(0.1) (0.2)
-1.00 (0.3) (0.5) -0.50 (0.2)
(0.6) (0.4)
(0.9) (0.4) (0.6) (0.6)
-2.00 -1.00 (0.8)

-3.00 (2.6) -1.50

(2.9) (1.4)
-4.00 -2.00 (1.7)
E&Ps Cement Power Fertilizers OMCs Foods Tech. Textile Banks Others Cement Textile OMCs E&Ps Banks Others Foods Power Fertilizers Tech.
Source: NCCPL & TSL Research Source: NCCPL & TSL Research

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Important Disclosure
SECP Research Entity Notification Number: REP-040
Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s), if any, denoted by AC on the cover of this report, who exclusively reports to the research department head, primarily involved in the preparation, writing and publication
of this report, certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report are unbiased and independent opinions of the Research Analyst which accurately reflect his/her personal views about all of the
subject companies/securities and (2) no part of his/her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The research analyst or any of its close relatives do not have a financial interest in the securities of the subject company aggregating more than 1% of the value of the company and the research
analyst or its close relative have neither served as a director/officer in the past 3 years nor received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. The Research analyst or its
close relatives have not traded in the subject security in the past 7 days and will not trade in next 5 days.
Disclosure of Financial Interest
TSL or any of its officers and directors does not have a significant financial interest (above 1% of the value of the securities of the subject company) in the securities of the subject company.
However, NBP and BOK, being associates of TSL, may trade or have significant financial interest, under normal course of business, in the subject company from time to time. Under normal course
of business, TSL, their respective directors, officers, representatives, employees and/or related persons may have a long or short position in any of the securities or other financial instruments
mentioned or issues described herein at any time and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to
time in the open market or otherwise. TSL or its employees may trade contrary to the recommendation given by TSL Research through this report or any other. TSL may be providing, or have
provided within the previous twelve months, significant advice or brokerage services to the subject company. TSL may have, within the past twelve months, served as manager or co-manager of a
public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all, the entities mentioned in this report or received compensation for corporate advisory services,
brokerage services or underwriting services from the subject company. TSL or any other of its officers and directors have neither served as a director/officer in any company under TSL research
coverage in the past 3 years nor received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by Taurus Securities Ltd (hereinafter referred as TSL) and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is to be used or considered as an offer
to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained therein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make
no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make
their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. Statements regarding future prospects may not be realized while all such information and opinions are subject to change
without notice. TSL recommends investors to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and it encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor.
Investments in capital markets are subject to market risk and TSL accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its
contents. In particular, the report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular need of individuals, who should seek further advice before making any
investment or rely upon their own judgment and acumen before making any investment. The views expressed in this document are those of the TSL Research Department and do not necessarily
reflect those of TSL or its directors.
TSL may, to the extent permissible by applicable law or regulation, use the above material, conclusions, research or analysis in which they are based before the material is disseminated to their
customers.
TSL, as a full-service firm, has/intends to have business relationships, including investment-banking relationships, with the companies in this report. Investors should be aware of that the TSL
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
TSL claims responsibility for Research or other publication disseminating ONLY through its official channels (email address, TSL Web etc.) and DOES NOT take ownership/responsibility for
report(s) circulated through other sources (social media, website, blogs etc.) under the name of the organization. TSL Management reserves the right to take action against unauthorized
reproduction, distribution or publication of its reports.

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 TAURUS
SECURITIES LIMITED
A Subsidiary of National Bank of Pakistan

Important Disclosure
TSL Research Dissemination Policy
Taurus Securities Ltd. endeavors to make all reasonable efforts to disseminate research to all eligible clients in a timely manner through either physical or electronic distribution such as mail, fax
and/or email. Nevertheless, not all clients may receive the material at the same time.
Taurus Stock Rating System
TSL employs a 3-tier rating mechanism i.e ‘BUY’, ‘HOLD’ and ‘SELL’, which is based upon the level of expected return for a specific stock. When total return (capital gain + dividends) exceeds
16%, a ’BUY’ rating is assigned. A ‘SELL’ rating is issued whenever total return is less than -6% and for return in between the 2 ranges, ‘HOLD’ rating is meted out. Different securities firms use a
variety of rating terms/systems to describe their recommendations. Similar rating terms used by other securities companies may not be equivalent to TSL rating system.
Time horizon is usually the annual financial reporting period of the company (unless otherwise mentioned in the report). Ratings are updated daily and can therefore change daily. They can
change because of a move in the stock's price, a change in the analyst's estimate of the stock's fair value, a change in the analyst's assessment of a company's business risk, or a combination of any
of these factors. In addition, research reports contain information carrying the analyst’s views and investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the
rating ascribed by the analyst. In any case, ratings or research should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor’s decision to buy, sell or hold a stock should depend on
individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings or investment objectives) and other considerations.
Target price risk disclosures
Any inability to compete successfully in the markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include (but not limited to) geographic mix and introduction of
improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets.
The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company may enter into transactions, including
transactions in derivative instruments, to manage/offset certain of these exposures.
Valuation Methodology
To arrive at our period end target prices, TSL uses different valuation methodologies including
• Discounted cash flow (DCF, DDM)
• Justified price to book (JPB)
• Relative Valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S etc.)
• Equity & Asset return based methodologies (EVA, Residual Income etc.)

SECP JamaPunji Portal link: www.JamaPunji.pk

Frequently Used Acronyms

TP Target Price DDM Dividend Discount Model FCF Free Cash Flows
FCFE Free Cash Flows to Equity FCFF Free Cash Flows to Firm DCF Discounted Cash Flows
PE Price to Earnings ratio PB Price to Book ratio BVPS Book Value per Share
EPS Earnings per Share DPS Dividend per Share ROE Return on Equity
ROA Return on Assets SOTP Sum of the Parts JPB Justified Price to Book

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